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At least 307 records · Page 17

Analytic Modeling of Pressurization and Cryogenic Propellant

An analytic model for pressurization and cryogenic propellant conditions during all mission phases of any liquid rocket based vehicle has been developed and validated. The model assumes the propellant tanks to be divided into five nodes and also implements an empirical correlation for liquid stratification if desired. The five nodes include a tank wall node exposed to ullage gas, an ullage gas node, a saturated propellant vapor node at the liquid-vapor interface, a liquid node, and a tank wall node exposed to liquid. The conservation equations of mass and energy are then applied across all the node boundaries and, with the use of perfect gas assumptions, explicit solutions for ullage and liquid conditions are derived. All fluid properties are updated real time using NIST Refprop.1 Further, mass transfer at the liquid-vapor interface is included in the form of evaporation, bulk boiling of liquid propellant, and condensation given the appropriate conditions for each. Model validation has proven highly successful against previous analytic models and various Saturn era test data and reasonably successful against more recent LH2 tank self pressurization ground test data. Finally, this model has been applied to numerous design iterations for the Altair Lunar Lander, Ares V Core Stage, and Ares V Earth Departure Stage in order to characterize Helium and autogenous pressurant requirements, propellant lost to evaporation and thermodynamic venting to maintain propellant conditions, and non-uniform tank draining in configurations utilizing multiple LH2 or LO2 propellant tanks. In conclusion, this model provides an accurate and efficient means of analyzing multiple design configurations for any cryogenic propellant tank in launch, low-acceleration coast, or in-space maneuvering and supplies the user with pressurization requirements, unusable propellants from evaporation and liquid stratification, and general ullage gas, liquid, and tank wall conditions as functions of time.

Corpening, Jeremy H.↗

Separate Effects Validation for Subcooled Boiling in CTF

In 2010, the U.S. Department of Energy created its first Energy Innovation Hub, which is focused on developing high-fidelity and high-resolution modeling and simulation (M&S) tools for modeling of light water reactors (LWRs). This hub, the Consortium for Advanced Simulation of LWRs (CASL), has developed an LWR simulation tool called the Virtual Environment for Reactor Applications (VERA). The multi-physics capability of VERA is achieved through the coupling of single-physics codes, including CTF (the CASL version of Coolant Boiling in Rod Arrays— Three Field (COBRA-TF)), Michigan Parallel Characteristics Transport (MPACT), BISON, and Materials Performance and Optimization (MPO) Advanced Model for Boron Analysis (MAMBA). As part of its M&S efforts, CASL has identified various challenge problems, including Crud Induced Power Shift (CIPS), Crud-Induced Localized Corrosion (CILC), Pellet-Cladding Interaction (PCI), and Departure from Nucleate Boiling (DNB). This work addresses CASL milestone L2:VVI.P19.03, which focuses on uncertainty quantification of crud, which is relevant to both CIPS and CILC. This is achieved through an analysis and separate effects validation of the thermal hydraulic phenomenon known as subcooled boiling. As part of this work, various sources of experimental data are examined and compared to different options for empirical modeling of subcooled boiling. Through this analysis, a complete understanding of the underlying models and their implementation details are understood. A subset of these data are incorporated into a separate effects validation study of CTF. The Westinghouse Advanced Loop Tester (WALT) and Rohsenow experiments are modeled, and it is shown that the newly-implemented Gorenflo correlation is more accurate than the existing Chen and Thom correlations.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

A high‐order discontinuous Galerkin approach for physics‐based thermospheric modeling

Abstract The accurate prediction of aerodynamic drag on satellites orbiting in the upper atmosphere is critical to the operational success of modern space technologies, such as satellite‐based communication or navigation systems, which have become increasingly popular in the last few years due to the deployment of constellations of satellites in low‐Earth orbit. As a result, physics‐based models of the ionosphere and thermosphere have emerged as a necessary tool for the prediction of atmospheric outputs under highly variable space weather conditions. This paper proposes a high‐fidelity approach for physics‐based space weather modeling based on the solution of the Navier–Stokes equations using a high‐order discontinuous Galerkin method, combined with a matrix‐free strategy suitable for high‐performance computing on GPU architectures. The approach consists of a thermospheric model that describes a chemically frozen neutral atmosphere in nonhydrostatic equilibrium driven by the external excitation of the Sun. A novel set of variables is considered to treat the low densities present in the upper atmosphere and to accommodate the wide range of scales present in the problem. At the same time, and unlike most existing approaches, radial and angular directions are treated in a nonsegregated approach. The study presents a set of numerical examples that demonstrate the accuracy of the approximation and validate the current approach against observational data along a satellite orbit, including estimates of established empirical and physics‐based models of the ionosphere‐thermosphere system. Finally, a one‐dimensional radial derivation of the physics‐based model is presented and utilized for conducting a parametric study of the main thermal quantities under various solar conditions.

Engineering↗

Quantifying Epistemic Uncertainty in Binary Classification via Accuracy Gain

ABSTRACT Recently, a surge of interest has been given to quantifying epistemic uncertainty (EU), the reducible portion of uncertainty due to lack of data. We propose a novel EU estimator in the binary classification setting, as the posterior expected value of the empirical gain in accuracy between the current prediction and the optimal prediction. In order to validate the performance of our EU estimator, we introduce an experimental procedure where we take an existing dataset, remove a set of points, and compare the estimated EU with the observed change in accuracy. Through real and simulated data experiments, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed EU estimator.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Evaluation of semi-empirical soot models for nonpremixed flames with increased stoichiometric mixture fraction and strain

Due to the size and complexity of industrial-scale systems and computing limitations, semi-empirical soot models are often employed in CFD simulations rather than computationally-expensive detailed models. Many of these models were developed for specific applications with unique characteristic timescales and/or validated only under fuel-air combustion conditions. Hence, their use in different contexts, such as oxy-combustion, could lead to inaccurate predictions. In this study, twelve semi-empirical models (1-step or 2-step) are evaluated on their ability to respond to changes in stoichiometric mixture fraction (Z st ) and strain in a series of ethylene counterflow flames which span the experimental sooting-to-non-sooting (yellow to blue) transition. A unique approach of plotting soot formation rate in normalized, local equivalence ratio space is introduced to aid in the analysis. Results show that no existing model is able to predict a blue flame when Z st is increased beyond the experimentally-measured sooting limit. Many models give the counter-intuitive result of increasing peak and/or integrated soot volume fraction (svf) as Z st increased, contrary to experimental observations. Two models are able to successfully predict a blue flame upon increase of strain to the sooting limit value. For two-step models, the strong dependence of growth rate on surface area results in high sensitivity of svf to changing flame boundary conditions, but with mixed accuracy. There is still a significant need for a robust semi-empirical model which can accurately predict soot fraction in systems with oxygen-enrichment or variable strain.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Imposing correct jellium response is key to predict the density response by orbital-free DFT

Orbital-free density functional theory constitutes a computationally highly effective tool for modeling electronic structures of systems ranging from room-temperature materials to warm dense matter. Its accuracy critically depends on the employed kinetic energy (KE) density functional, which has to be supplied as an external input. In this work we consider several nonlocal and Laplacian-level KE functionals and use an external harmonic perturbation to compute the static density response at T = 0 K in the linear and beyond-linear response regimes. We test for the satisfaction of exact conditions in the limit of uniform densities and for how approximate KE functionals reproduce the density response of realistic materials (e.g., Al and Si) against the Kohn-Sham DFT reference, which employs the exact KE. The results illustrate that several functionals violate exact conditions in the uniform electron gas (UEG) limit. We find a strong correlation between the accuracy of the KE functionals in the UEG limit and in the strongly inhomogeneous case. This empirically demonstrates the importance of imposing the limit of UEG response for uniform densities and validates the use of the Lindhard function in the formulation of kernels for nonlocal functionals. This conclusion is substantiated by additional calculations for bulk aluminum (Al) with a face-centered cubic (fcc) lattice and silicon (Si) with an fcc lattice, body-centered cubic (bcc) lattice, and semiconducting crystal diamond state. The analysis of fcc Al, and fcc as well as bcc Si data follows closely the conclusions drawn for the UEG, allowing us to extend our conclusions to realistic systems that are subject to density inhomogeneities induced by ions.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

First Simultaneous Measurement of Differential Muon-Neutrino Charged-Current Cross Sections on Argon for Final States with and without Protons Using MicroBooNE Data

We report the first double-differential neutrino-argon cross section measurement made simultaneously for final states with and without protons for the inclusive muon neutrino charged-current interaction channel. The proton kinematics of this channel are further explored with a differential cross section measurement as a function of the leading proton’s kinetic energy that extends across the detection threshold. These measurements use data collected with the MicroBooNE detector from 6.4 × 10 20 protons on target from the Fermilab booster neutrino beam with a mean neutrino energy of ∼ 0.8 GeV . Extensive data-driven model validation utilizing the conditional constraint formalism is employed. This motivates enlarging the uncertainties with an empirical reweighting approach to minimize the possibility of extracting biased cross section results. The extracted nominal flux-averaged cross sections are compared to widely used event generator predictions revealing severe mismodeling of final states without protons for muon neutrino charged-current interactions, possibly from insufficient treatment of final state interactions. These measurements provide a wealth of new information useful for improving event generators which will enhance the sensitivity of precision measurements in neutrino experiments. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Validation Metrics for Fixed Effects and Mixed-Effects Calibration

The modern scientific process often involves the development of a predictive computational model. To improve its accuracy, a computational model can be calibrated to a set of experimental data. A variety of validation metrics can be used to quantify this process. Some of these metrics have direct physical interpretations and a history of use, while others, especially those for probabilistic data, are more difficult to interpret. In this work, a variety of validation metrics are used to quantify the accuracy of different calibration methods. Frequentist and Bayesian perspectives are used with both fixed effects and mixed-effects statistical models. Through a quantitative comparison of the resulting distributions, the most accurate calibration method can be selected. Two examples are included which compare the results of various validation metrics for different calibration methods. It is quantitatively shown that, in the presence of significant laboratory biases, a fixed effects calibration is significantly less accurate than a mixed-effects calibration. This is because the mixed-effects statistical model better characterizes the underlying parameter distributions than the fixed effects model. The results suggest that validation metrics can be used to select the most accurate calibration model for a particular empirical model with corresponding experimental data.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

EMPIRE-PIC: A Performance Portable Unstructured Particle-in-Cell Code

In this study we introduce EMPIRE-PIC, a finite element method particle-in-cell (FEM-PIC) application developed at Sandia National Laboratories. The code has been developed in C++ using the Trilinos library and the Kokkos Performance Portability Framework to enable running on multiple modern compute architectures while only requiring maintenance of a single codebase. EMPIRE-PIC is capable of solving both electrostatic and electromagnetic problems in two- and three-dimensions to second-order accuracy in space and time. In this paper we validate the code against three benchmark problems — a simple electron orbit, an electrostatic Langmuir wave, and a transverse electromagnetic wave propagating through a plasma. We demonstrate the performance of EMPIRE-PIC on four different architectures: Intel Haswell CPUs, Intel's Xeon Phi Knights Landing, ARM Thunder-X2 CPUs, and NVIDIA Tesla V100 GPUs attached to IBM POWER9 processors. This analysis demonstrates scalability of the code up to more than two thousand GPUs, and greater than one hundred thousand CPUs.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

RR Lyrae stars - A theoretical study of Bailey type c variables

New theoretical models of stars pulsating in the first overtone have been constructed to simulate RR Lyr variables of Bailey type c. Despite the use of different opacities, these new models agree very well with earlier models built by Christy and Stellingwerf. Quantitative comparisons using empirical light curves and velocity curves of metal-poor type c variables confirm the validity of the models. Masses of 0.55-0.65 solar mass and luminosities of 40-50 solar luminosities derived here for the type c variables, are consistent with previous results obtained for type ab variables. A Christy echo of the kind normally associated with fundamental-mode pulsators was detected in the interior velocity structure of one first-overtone model that happens to have a large velocity amplitude.

Hubickyj, Olenka↗

The validation of a human force model to predict dynamic forces resulting from multi-joint motions

The development and validation is examined of a dynamic strength model for humans. This model is based on empirical data. The shoulder, elbow, and wrist joints were characterized in terms of maximum isolated torque, or position and velocity, in all rotational planes. This data was reduced by a least squares regression technique into a table of single variable second degree polynomial equations determining torque as a function of position and velocity. The isolated joint torque equations were then used to compute forces resulting from a composite motion, in this case, a ratchet wrench push and pull operation. A comparison of the predicted results of the model with the actual measured values for the composite motion indicates that forces derived from a composite motion of joints (ratcheting) can be predicted from isolated joint measures. Calculated T values comparing model versus measured values for 14 subjects were well within the statistically acceptable limits and regression analysis revealed coefficient of variation between actual and measured to be within 0.72 and 0.80.

Pandya, Abhilash K.↗

TPSAS-NF1676L-33601-DND

The Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) project now has over 18 years of an accurately observed top-of-the-atmosphere (TOA) flux record for climate monitoring and diagnostic studies. CERES provides the climate community the following parameters: coincident instantaneous 1? gridded CERES observed TOA fluxes, computed profile and surface fluxes, as well as MODIS cloud and aerosol retrievals. Clouds and radiation interaction one key factor that dominates climate feedbacks and is also the most difficult problem with large uncertainty. To further advance our understanding of the cloud-radiation interaction, the climate community need data with accurate fluxes and their associated cloud properties for both observational and modelling study. The new CERES FluxByCldTyp data product is produced for this purpose. The flux product combines for the first time CERES measured TOA fluxes along with the associated MODIS cloud properties, which links radiative flux directly to a specific cloud type. This was achieved by computing sub-footprint fluxes for the clear-sky and cloudy portions of the CERES footprint. The spatially distributed cloud properties within the CERES footprint were retrieved from 2-km MODIS pixels, that were stratified by cloud type. The sub-footprint fluxes were estimated from MODIS radiances based on empirically derived narrowband to broadband coefficients. The combined sub-footprint fluxes can then be validated with the observed footprint flux. This presentation will focus on the algorithm development of the flux-by-cloud-type product and its validation.

Moguo Sun↗

TPSAS-NF1676L-33753-DND

The Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) project now has over 18 years of an accurately observed top-of-the-atmosphere (TOA) flux record for climate monitoring and diagnostic studies. CERES provides the climate community the following parameters: coincident instantaneous 1 gridded CERES observed TOA fluxes, computed profile and surface fluxes, as well as MODIS cloud and aerosol retrievals. Clouds and radiation interaction one key factor that dominates climate feedbacks and is also the most difficult problem with large uncertainty. To further advance our understanding of the cloud-radiation interaction, the climate community need data with accurate fluxes and their associated cloud properties for both observational and modelling study. The new CERES FluxByCldTyp data product is produced for this purpose. The flux product combines for the first time CERES measured TOA fluxes along with the associated MODIS cloud properties, which links radiative flux directly to a specific cloud type. This was achieved by computing sub-footprint fluxes for the clear-sky and cloudy portions of the CERES footprint. The spatially distributed cloud properties within the CERES footprint were retrieved from 2-km MODIS pixels, that were stratified by cloud type. The sub-footprint fluxes were estimated from MODIS radiances based on empirically derived narrowband to broadband coefficients. The combined sub-footprint fluxes can then be validated with the observed footprint flux. This presentation will focus on the algorithm development of the flux-by-cloud-type product and its validation. The paper will also discuss CERES FlxbyCldTyp simulator and its application.

Moguo Sun↗

Analytical Fuselage and Wing Weight Estimation of Transport Aircraft

A method of estimating the load-bearing fuselage weight and wing weight of transport aircraft based on fundamental structural principles has been developed. This method of weight estimation represents a compromise between the rapid assessment of component weight using empirical methods based on actual weights of existing aircraft, and detailed, but time-consuming, analysis using the finite element method. The method was applied to eight existing subsonic transports for validation and correlation. Integration of the resulting computer program, PDCYL, has been made into the weights-calculating module of the AirCraft SYNThesis (ACSYNT) computer program. ACSYNT has traditionally used only empirical weight estimation methods; PDCYL adds to ACSYNT a rapid, accurate means of assessing the fuselage and wing weights of unconventional aircraft. PDCYL also allows flexibility in the choice of structural concept, as well as a direct means of determining the impact of advanced materials on structural weight. Using statistical analysis techniques, relations between the load-bearing fuselage and wing weights calculated by PDCYL and corresponding actual weights were determined.

Chambers, Mark C.↗

Development of Advanced Methods of Structural and Trajectory Analysis for Transport Aircraft

In this report the author describes: (1) development of advanced methods of structural weight estimation, and (2) development of advanced methods of flight path optimization. A method of estimating the load-bearing fuselage weight and wing weight of transport aircraft based on fundamental structural principles has been developed. This method of weight estimation represents a compromise between the rapid assessment of component weight using empirical methods based on actual weights of existing aircraft and detailed, but time-consuming, analysis using the finite element method. The method was applied to eight existing subsonic transports for validation and correlation. Integration of the resulting computer program, PDCYL, has been made into the weights-calculating module of the AirCraft SYNThesis (ACSYNT) computer program. ACSYNT bas traditionally used only empirical weight estimation methods; PDCYL adds to ACSYNT a rapid, accurate means of assessing the fuselage and wing weights of unconventional aircraft. PDCYL also allows flexibility in the choice of structural concept, as well as a direct means of determining the impact of advanced materials on structural weight.

Ardema, Mark D.↗

Validation of MFUEL Metal Fuel Performance Models of SAS4A/SASSYS-1

The fuel characterization models of SAS4A/SASSYS-1 (SAS) have recently been extended to include a new U-Pu-Zr metal fuel model, MFUEL. MFUEL is equipped with mechanistic physics based models to predict the pre-transient characterization and transient response of metal fuel, with emphasis on fuel melting, cladding failure, and the metal fuel’s impact on core reactivity. The MFUEL model will be available in the full version of SAS4A/SASSYS-1 5.7, which is scheduled to be released in June 2023. Fast reactor fuel pins that operated in EBR-II and FFTF with low smear density U-Zr and U-Pu-Zr metal fuels and irradiation resistant ferritic-martensitic cladding showed significant advantages in achieving high burnups and assuring inherent safety characteristics during anticipated transients, design basis events, and beyond design basis events. For safety analysis, a fuel performance model must be able to predict (1) Fuel pin mechanics and compositional and dimensional changes, (2) Clad failure, and (3) Fuel pin thermal resistance. Achieving these high level goals accurately is strongly related to the model performance of individual physical processes taking place within a fuel pin during its lifetime. Metal fuels typically operate above the mid-point temperature of melting during normal, as well as off-normal, conditions. At these elevated temperatures, the availability of thermal activation provides a driving force for various diffusional processes leading to complex phase transformations, micro-structure evolution, significant amounts of fuel swelling, interconnected porosity formation, excessive amounts of fission gas release, and fuel clad chemical interactions. Clad failure in fast reactors primarily occurs as a result of creep rupture augmented by clad wastage formation. The reaction is driven by thermal creep induced dislocation motion, grain boundary cavity nucleation, growth and breakup of grain boundaries. The high level complexity and limited available data requires introducing physics-based modeling approaches to gain extrapolation ability and sensitivity with respect to various conditions. The objective of this report is to perform validation of MFUEL using the experimental data for (1) Normal operation EBR-II fuel behavior, (2) Normal operation PHENIX fuel behavior, (3) HT9 Pressure tube ramp-and-hold creep rupture tests, (4) Whole Pin Furnace (WPF) creep strain, creep rupture and eutectic tests, (5) Fuel Behavior Test Apparatus (FBTA) eutectic tests, and (6) TREAT M5-7 OverPower tests up to clad failure. Section-2 includes a brief description of the MFUEL models. A detailed description of the MFUEL physics-based, semi-empirical models will be presented in the SAS V 5.7 theory manual. Section-3, 4, and 5 describes the validation effort for the pre-transient irradiation, furnace transients, and TREAT M-Series transients, respectively.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Finding Liebig’s law of the minimum

Abstract Liebig’s law of the minimum (LLM) is often used to interpret empirical biological growth data and model multiple substrates co‐limited growth. However, its mechanistic foundation is rarely discussed, even though its validity has been questioned since its introduction in the 1820s. Here we first show that LLM is a crude approximation of the law of mass action, the state of art theory of biochemical reactions, and the LLM model is less accurate than two other approximations of the law of mass action: the synthesizing unit model and the additive model. We corroborate this conclusion using empirical data sets of algae and plants grown under two co‐limiting substrates. Based on our analysis, we show that when growth is modeled directly as a function of substrate uptake, the LLM model improperly restricts the organism to be of fixed elemental stoichiometry, making it incapable of consistently resolving biological adaptation, ecological evolution, and community assembly. When growth is modeled as a function of the cellular nutrient quota, the LLM model may obtain good results at the risk of incorrect model parameters as compared to those inferred from the more accurate synthesizing unit model. However, biogeochemical models that implement these three formulations are needed to evaluate which formulation is acceptably accurate and their impacts on predicted long‐term ecosystem dynamics. In particular, studies are needed that explore the extent to which parameter calibration can rescue model performance when the mechanistic representation of a biogeochemical process is known to be deficient.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Non-Linear Slosh Damping Model Development and Validation

Propellant tank slosh dynamics are typically represented by a mechanical model of spring mass damper. This mechanical model is then included in the equation of motion of the entire vehicle for Guidance, Navigation and Control (GN&C) analysis. For a partially-filled smooth wall propellant tank, the critical damping based on classical empirical correlation is as low as 0.05%. Due to this low value of damping, propellant slosh is potential sources of disturbance critical to the stability of launch and space vehicles. It is postulated that the commonly quoted slosh damping is valid only under the linear regime where the slosh amplitude is small. With the increase of slosh amplitude, the critical damping value should also increase. If this nonlinearity can be verified and validated, the slosh stability margin can be significantly improved, and the level of conservatism maintained in the GN&C analysis can be lessened. The purpose of this study is to explore and to quantify the dependence of slosh damping with slosh amplitude. Accurately predicting the extremely low damping value of a smooth wall tank is very challenging for any Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) tool. One must resolve thin boundary layers near the wall and limit numerical damping to minimum. This computational study demonstrates that with proper grid resolution, CFD can indeed accurately predict the low damping physics from smooth walls under the linear regime. Comparisons of extracted damping values with experimental data for different tank sizes show very good agreements. Numerical simulations confirm that slosh damping is indeed a function of slosh amplitude. When slosh amplitude is low, the damping ratio is essentially constant, which is consistent with the empirical correlation. Once the amplitude reaches a critical value, the damping ratio becomes a linearly increasing function of the slosh amplitude. A follow-on experiment validated the developed nonlinear damping relationship. This discovery can lead to significant savings by reducing the number and size of slosh baffles in liquid propellant tanks.

Yang, H. Q.↗