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At least 307 records · Page 17

A method for modeling bias in a person's estimates of likelihoods of events

It is of practical importance in decision situations involving risk to train individuals to transform uncertainties into subjective probability estimates that are both accurate and unbiased. We have found that in decision situations involving risk, people often introduce subjective bias in their estimation of the likelihoods of events depending on whether the possible outcomes are perceived as being good or bad. Until now, however, the successful measurement of individual differences in the magnitude of such biases has not been attempted. In this paper we illustrate a modification of a procedure originally outlined by Davidson, Suppes, and Siegel (3) to allow for a quantitatively-based methodology for simultaneously estimating an individual's subjective utility and subjective probability functions. The procedure is now an interactive computer-based algorithm, DSS, that allows for the measurement of biases in probability estimation by obtaining independent measures of two subjective probability functions (S+ and S-) for winning (i.e., good outcomes) and for losing (i.e., bad outcomes) respectively for each individual, and for different experimental conditions within individuals. The algorithm and some recent empirical data are described.

Nygren, Thomas E.↗

Advanced piloted aircraft flight control system design methodology. Volume 1: Knowledge base

The development of a comprehensive and electric methodology for conceptual and preliminary design of flight control systems is presented and illustrated. The methodology is focused on the design stages starting with the layout of system requirements and ending when some viable competing system architectures (feedback control structures) are defined. The approach is centered on the human pilot and the aircraft as both the sources of, and the keys to the solution of, many flight control problems. The methodology relies heavily on computational procedures which are highly interactive with the design engineer. To maximize effectiveness, these techniques, as selected and modified to be used together in the methodology, form a cadre of computational tools specifically tailored for integrated flight control system preliminary design purposes. While theory and associated computational means are an important aspect of the design methodology, the lore, knowledge and experience elements, which guide and govern applications are critical features. This material is presented as summary tables, outlines, recipes, empirical data, lists, etc., which encapsulate a great deal of expert knowledge. Much of this is presented in topical knowledge summaries which are attached as Supplements. The composite of the supplements and the main body elements constitutes a first cut at a a Mark 1 Knowledge Base for manned-aircraft flight control.

Mcruer, Duane T.↗

Numerical Models For Control Of Robots

Algorithm develops numerical models of kinematics of robots for use in directing movements of robots. Based on empirical data. Predicts movements from previous measurements of actual movements. Replaces analytical or iterative models used commonly.

Waggener, Mary S.↗

Spray automated balancing of rotors - How process parameters influence performance

This paper addresses the application of spray-automated balancing of rotors, and the influence that various operating parameters will have on balancing performance. Spray-automated balancing uses the fuel-air repetitive explosion process to imbed short, discrete bursts of high velocity, high temperature powder into a rotating part at an angle selected to reduce unbalance of the part. The shortness of the burst, the delay in firing of the gun, the speed of the disk and the variability in speed all influence the accuracy and effectiveness of the automated balancing process. The paper evaluates this influence by developing an analytical framework and supplementing the analysis with empirical data obtained while firing the gun at a rotating disk. Encouraging results are obtained, and it is shown that the process should perform satisfactorily over a wide range of operating parameters. Further experimental results demonstrate the ability of the method to reduce vibration levels induced by mass unbalance in a rotating disk.

Smalley, A. J.↗

A theory of forest dynamics: Spatially explicit models and issues of scale

Good progress has been made in the first year of DOE grant (number sign) FG02-90ER60933. The purpose of the project is to develop and investigate models of forest dynamics that apply across a range of spatial scales. The grant is one third of a three-part project. The second third was funded by the NSF this year and is intended to provide the empirical data necessary to calibrate and test small-scale (less than or equal to 1000 ha) models. The final third was also funded this year (NASA), and will provide data to calibrate and test the large-scale features of the models.

Pacala, S.↗

Army-NASA aircrew/aircraft integration program (A3I) software detailed design document, phase 3

The capabilities and design approach of the MIDAS (Man-machine Integration Design and Analysis System) computer-aided engineering (CAE) workstation under development by the Army-NASA Aircrew/Aircraft Integration Program is detailed. This workstation uses graphic, symbolic, and numeric prototyping tools and human performance models as part of an integrated design/analysis environment for crewstation human engineering. Developed incrementally, the requirements and design for Phase 3 (Dec. 1987 to Jun. 1989) are described. Software tools/models developed or significantly modified during this phase included: an interactive 3-D graphic cockpit design editor; multiple-perspective graphic views to observe simulation scenarios; symbolic methods to model the mission decomposition, equipment functions, pilot tasking and loading, as well as control the simulation; a 3-D dynamic anthropometric model; an intermachine communications package; and a training assessment component. These components were successfully used during Phase 3 to demonstrate the complex interactions and human engineering findings involved with a proposed cockpit communications design change in a simulated AH-64A Apache helicopter/mission that maps to empirical data from a similar study and AH-1 Cobra flight test.

Banda, Carolyn↗

A three-dimensional finite-element thermal/mechanical analytical technique for high-performance traveling wave tubes

Current research in high-efficiency, high-performance traveling wave tubes (TWT's) has led to the development of novel thermal/ mechanical computer models for use with helical slow-wave structures. A three-dimensional, finite element computer model and analytical technique used to study the structural integrity and thermal operation of a high-efficiency, diamond-rod, K-band TWT designed for use in advanced space communications systems. This analysis focused on the slow-wave circuit in the radiofrequency section of the TWT, where an inherent localized heating problem existed and where failures were observed during earlier cold compression, or 'coining' fabrication technique that shows great potential for future TWT development efforts. For this analysis, a three-dimensional, finite element model was used along with MARC, a commercially available finite element code, to simulate the fabrication of a diamond-rod TWT. This analysis was conducted by using component and material specifications consistent with actual TWT fabrication and was verified against empirical data. The analysis is nonlinear owing to material plasticity introduced by the forming process and also to geometric nonlinearities presented by the component assembly configuration. The computer model was developed by using the high efficiency, K-band TWT design but is general enough to permit similar analyses to be performed on a wide variety of TWT designs and styles. The results of the TWT operating condition and structural failure mode analysis, as well as a comparison of analytical results to test data are presented.

Bartos, Karen F.↗

Anisotropy of thermal infrared exitance above and within plant canopies

Any significant angular dependence of the emitted long wave radiation could result in errors in remotely estimated energy budgets or evapotranspiration. Empirical data and thermal infrared radiation models are reviewed in reference to anisotropic emissions from the plant canopy. The biometeorological aspects of linking longwave models with plant canopy energy budgets and micrometeorology are discussed. A new soil plant atmosphere model applied to anisotropic longwave emissions from a canopy is presented. Time variation of thermal infrared emission measurements is discussed.

Pawu, Kyaw Tha↗

Mars aerobrake assembly demonstration

NASA has identified aerobraking as a potentially critical technology for the Space Exploration Initiative (SEI). The size of Mars aerobrakes may be beyond the capabilities of future launch vehicles to place them into orbit in one launch. On-orbit assembly using facilities and operations developed under the Space Station Freedom (SSF) Program represent one approach for realizing such large structures. the results of early testing in this subject can help influence the future evolution of the SSF. The objectives are to: (1) generate empirical data on operational procedures for on-orbit assembly of a large Mars aerobrake; (2) develop aerobrake design concepts; (3) identify critical issues and requirements associated with SSF utilization; and (4) to stimulate student participation in the SEI.

Garvey, John M.↗

Development of an empirically based dynamic biomechanical strength model

The focus here is on the development of a dynamic strength model for humans. Our model is based on empirical data. The shoulder, elbow, and wrist joints are characterized in terms of maximum isolated torque, position, and velocity in all rotational planes. This information is reduced by a least squares regression technique into a table of single variable second degree polynomial equations determining the torque as a function of position and velocity. The isolated joint torque equations are then used to compute forces resulting from a composite motion, which in this case is a ratchet wrench push and pull operation. What is presented here is a comparison of the computed or predicted results of the model with the actual measured values for the composite motion.

Pandya, A.↗

Space debris characterization in support of a satellite breakup model

The Space Kinetic Impact and Debris Branch began an ambitious program to construct a fully analytical model of the breakup of a satellite under hypervelocity impact. In order to provide empirical data with which to substantiate the model, debris from hypervelocity experiments conducted in a controlled laboratory environment were characterized to provide information of its mass, velocity, and ballistic coefficient distributions. Data on the debris were collected in one master data file, and a simple FORTRAN program allows users to describe the debris from any subset of these experiments that may be of interest to them. A statistical analysis was performed, allowing users to determine the precision of the velocity measurements for the data. Attempts are being made to include and correlate other laboratory data, as well as those data obtained from the explosion or collision of spacecraft in low earth orbit.

Fortson, Bryan H.↗

Structural analysis for preliminary design of High Speed Civil Transport (HSCT)

In the preliminary design environment, there is a need for quick evaluation of configuration and material concepts. The simplified beam representations used in the subsonic, high aspect ratio wing platform are not applicable for low aspect ratio configurations typical of supersonic transports. There is a requirement to develop methods for efficient generation of structural arrangement and finite element representation to support multidisciplinary analysis and optimization. In addition, empirical data bases required to validate prediction methods need to be improved for high speed civil transport (HSCT) type configurations.

Bhatia, Kumar G.↗

The validation of a human force model to predict dynamic forces resulting from multi-joint motions

The development and validation is examined of a dynamic strength model for humans. This model is based on empirical data. The shoulder, elbow, and wrist joints were characterized in terms of maximum isolated torque, or position and velocity, in all rotational planes. This data was reduced by a least squares regression technique into a table of single variable second degree polynomial equations determining torque as a function of position and velocity. The isolated joint torque equations were then used to compute forces resulting from a composite motion, in this case, a ratchet wrench push and pull operation. A comparison of the predicted results of the model with the actual measured values for the composite motion indicates that forces derived from a composite motion of joints (ratcheting) can be predicted from isolated joint measures. Calculated T values comparing model versus measured values for 14 subjects were well within the statistically acceptable limits and regression analysis revealed coefficient of variation between actual and measured to be within 0.72 and 0.80.

Pandya, Abhilash K.↗

Engine Performance and Health Monitoring Models Using Steady State and Transient Prediction Methods

This lecture note discusses the role of computer modelling in the design, development, and validation of a performance monitoring system. The basic requirements of an engine health monitoring system are discussed in the context of the user environment. A form of model based on stage characteristics provides the basis for describing engine measurements. Faults are modelled in accordance with empirical data obtained from tests conducted at the stage level. The model is used to investigate various parameters that provide unambiguous identification of the fault in question. Fault libraries have been developed for field use.

B D MacIsaac↗

CFD analysis of the STME nozzle flowfield

The Space Transportation Main Engine (STME) uses a gas generator cycle to cool the nozzle wall by a film-dump of the turbine exhaust. The ability to cool the skirt is a key concern in the design of the STME. CFD calculations were undertaken to predict the film cooling effectiveness and performance sensitivities for various configurations, operating points, and inlet conditions. The results presented here were obtained for the subscale nozzle. The computations were performed using REFLEQS. The computational analysis showed that a chemical equilibrium model was necessary to obtain correct predictions of the specific impulse. The frozen composition model underpredicts the ISP by about 6 percent. It was also observed that the coolant film was successful in maintaining the nozzle wall well below the stagnation temperature of the core flow. The effect of the coolant flow on the performance of the engine was found to be negligible. The computed heat fluxes at the wall were in good agreement with the empirical data obtained by Pratt and Whitney. Further test data from Pratt and Whitney are forthcoming for the subscale nozzle. Calculations will be performed to determine cooling efficiencies and nozzle performance over a range of conditions, and model predictions will be compared with experimental data. Information is given in viewgraph form.

Krishnan, Anantha↗

Ballistic limit regression analysis for Space Station Freedom meteoroid and space debris protection system

Relationships defining the ballistic limit of Space Station Freedom's (SSF) dual wall protection systems have been determined. These functions were regressed from empirical data found in Marshall Space Flight Center's (MSFC) Hypervelocity Impact Testing Summary (HITS) for the velocity range between three and seven kilometers per second. A stepwise linear least squares regression was used to determine the coefficients of several expressions that define a ballistic limit surface. Using statistical significance indicators and graphical comparisons to other limit curves, a final set of expressions is recommended for potential use in Probability of No Critical Flaw (PNCF) calculations for Space Station. The three equations listed below represent the mean curves for normal, 45 degree, and 65 degree obliquity ballistic limits, respectively, for a dual wall protection system consisting of a thin 6061-T6 aluminum bumper spaced 4.0 inches from a .125 inches thick 2219-T87 rear wall with multiple layer thermal insulation installed between the two walls. Normal obliquity is d(sub c) = 1.0514 v(exp 0.2983 t(sub 1)(exp 0.5228). Forty-five degree obliquity is d(sub c) = 0.8591 v(exp 0.0428) t(sub 1)(exp 0.2063). Sixty-five degree obliquity is d(sub c) = 0.2824 v(exp 0.1986) t(sub 1)(exp -0.3874). Plots of these curves are provided. A sensitivity study on the effects of using these new equations in the probability of no critical flaw analysis indicated a negligible increase in the performance of the dual wall protection system for SSF over the current baseline. The magnitude of the increase was 0.17 percent over 25 years on the MB-7 configuration run with the Bumper II program code.

Jolly, William H.↗

Modeling the behavioral substrates of associate learning and memory - Adaptive neural models

Three adaptive single-neuron models based on neural analogies of behavior modification episodes are proposed, which attempt to bridge the gap between psychology and neurophysiology. The proposed models capture the predictive nature of Pavlovian conditioning, which is essential to the theory of adaptive/learning systems. The models learn to anticipate the occurrence of a conditioned response before the presence of a reinforcing stimulus when training is complete. Furthermore, each model can find the most nonredundant and earliest predictor of reinforcement. The behavior of the models accounts for several aspects of basic animal learning phenomena in Pavlovian conditioning beyond previous related models. Computer simulations show how well the models fit empirical data from various animal learning paradigms.

Lee, Chuen-Chien↗

Phi-s correlation and dynamic time warping - Two methods for tracking ice floes in SAR images

The authors present two algorithms for performing shape matching on ice floe boundaries in SAR (synthetic aperture radar) images. These algorithms quickly produce a set of ice motion and rotation vectors that can be used to guide a pixel value correlator. The algorithms match a shape descriptor known as the Phi-s curve. The first algorithm uses normalized correlation to match the Phi-s curves, while the second uses dynamic programming to compute an elastic match that better accommodates ice floe deformation. Some empirical data on the performance of the algorithms on Seasat SAR images are presented.

Mcconnell, Ross↗