Monte Carlo or Monty Karlow? or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Empirical History-Score PDF
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Kulesza, Joel A.↗
SEARCH · Engineering Papers
Results for “empirical”
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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Empirical Study of Molecular Dynamics Workflow Data Movement: DYAD vs. Standard I/O Systems
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Computer science↗
From RNNs to Foundation Models: An Empirical Study on Commercial Building Energy Consumption
Accurate short-term energy consumption forecasting for commercial buildings is crucial for smart grid operations. While smart meters and deep learning models enable forecasting using past data from multiple buildings, data heterogeneity from diverse buildings can reduce model performance. The impact of increasing dataset heterogeneity in time series forecasting, while keeping size and model constant, is understudied. We tackle this issue using the ComStock dataset, which provides synthetic energy consumption data for U.S. commercial buildings. Two curated subsets, identical in size and region but differing in building type diversity, are used to assess the performance of various time series forecasting models, including finetuned open-source foundation models (FMs). The results show that dataset heterogeneity and model architecture have a greater impact on post-training forecasting performance than the parameter count. Moreover, despite the higher computational cost, finetuned FMs demonstrate competitive performance compared to base models trained from scratch.
commercial buildings↗
Long-term empirical radiation detector calibration for airborne geophysical surveying
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73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
Long-term empirical radiation detector calibration for airborne geophysical surveying
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46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
Understanding Model Inadequacy in TRISO Nuclear Fuel Fission Products Release Models: Empirical and Mechanistic Approaches
The increasing use of tristructural isotropic (TRISO) particle fuel in both advanced and existing reactors necessitates a thorough evaluation of uncertainties and shortcomings in TRISO fission product release models. These inadequacies arise from the simplifications made in computational models compared to experimental data. Utilizing the BISON fuel performance code and experimental data from the Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR) program provides a unique chance to rigorously assess these inadequacies within a Bayesian uncertainty quantification (UQ) framework. This study contrasts the standard Bayesian framework with the Kennedy-O'Hagan (KOH) framework, which explicitly accounts for modeling inadequacies, in the context of UQ for TRISO silver release models. It examines both the traditional Arrhenius equation and a more advanced lower-length-scale (LLS)-informed model that incorporates microstructure information. The inverse UQ process applied to AGR-2 and AGR-3/4 datasets identified modeling inadequacy as the primary source of uncertainty, with experimental noise also being significant, while model parameter uncertainty was minimal. Both the Arrhenius and LLS-informed models showed similar levels of modeling inadequacy. For forward predictive UQ using the AGR-1 dataset, the KOH framework enhanced the accuracy and quality of quantified uncertainties by approximately 30% and 40%, respectively, compared to the standard Bayesian framework. This improvement was observed for both the Arrhenius and LLS-informed models. At the engineering scale, both models performed similarly, but the LLS-informed model outperformed the Arrhenius equation at the mesoscale. These findings underscore the importance of explicitly considering modeling inadequacy in the UQ process and highlight the need for ongoing refinement of physics-based models to address these shortcomings.
11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
Feasibility of Formulating Ecosystem Biogeochemical Models From Established Physical Rules
Abstract To improve the predictive capability of ecosystem biogeochemical models (EBMs), we discuss the feasibility of formulating biogeochemical processes using physical rules that have underpinned the many successes in computational physics and chemistry. We argue that the currently popular empirically based approaches, such as multiplicative empirical response functions and the law of the minimum, will not lead to EBM formulations that can be continuously refined to incorporate improved mechanistic understanding and empirical observations of biogeochemical processes. Instead, we propose that EBM parameterizations, as a lossy data compression problem, can be better formulated using established physical rules widely used in computational physics and chemistry, and different biogeochemical processes can be more robustly integrated within a reactive‐transport framework. Through several examples, we demonstrate how mathematical representations derived from physical rules can improve understanding of relevant biogeochemical processes and enable more effective communication between modelers, observationalists, and experimentalists regarding essential questions, such as what measurements are needed to meaningfully inform models and how can models generate new process‐level hypotheses to test in empirical studies. Finally, while empirical models with more parameters are often less robust, physical rules‐based models can be more robust and show lower predictive equifinality, stemming from their enhanced consistency in representations of processes, interactions and spatial scaling.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Deep potential molecular dynamics simulations of low-temperature plasma-surface interactions
Machine learning approaches to potential generation for molecular dynamics (MD) simulations of low-temperature plasma-surface interactions could greatly extend the range of chemical systems that can be modeled. Empirical potentials are difficult to generalize to complex combinations of multiple elements with interactions that might include covalent, ionic, and metallic bonds. This work demonstrates that a specific machine learning approach, Deep Potential Molecular Dynamics (DeepMD), can generate potentials that provide a good model of plasma etching in the Si-Cl-Ar system. Comparisons are made between MD results using DeepMD models and empirical potentials, as well as experimental measurements. Pure Si properties predicted by the DeepMD model are in reasonable agreement with experimental results. Simulations of Si bombardment by Ar + ions demonstrate the ability of the DeepMD method to predict sputtering yields as well as the depth of the amorphous-crystalline interface. Etch yields as a function of flux ratio and ion energy for simultaneous Cl 2 and Ar + impacts are in good agreement with previous simulation results and experiment. Predictions of etch yields and etch products during plasma-assisted atomic layer etching of Si-Cl 2 -Ar are shown to be in good agreement with MD predictions using empirical potentials and with experiment. Finally, good agreement was also seen with measurements for the spontaneous etching of Si by Cl atoms at 300 K. Further, the demonstration that DeepMD can reproduce results from MD simulations using empirical potentials is a necessary condition to future efforts to extend the method to a much wider range of systems for which empirical potentials may be difficult or impossible to obtain.
70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
A Design Method for Low-Pressure Venturi Nozzles
The purpose of this work is to provide empirical design models for low-pressure, subsonic Venturi nozzles. Experimentally validated simulations were used to determine the effect of nozzle geometry and operating conditions on the suction ratio (ratio of suction mass flow rate to motive mass flow rate) of low-pressure, subsonic Venturi nozzles, over a wide range of geometries and operating conditions, through a parametric study. The results of the parametric study were used to develop seven empirical models, each with a different range of applicability or calculating a different indicator of nozzle performance (i.e., suction ratio, momentum ratio, or dynamic pressure ratio), of the Venturi nozzles using a constrained multi-variable global optimization method. Of the seven empirical models, the best models were found to be those for low- (less than one) and high-suction ratios (greater than one), with mean absolute percentage errors of 5% and 18%, respectively. These empirical models provide a design tool for subsonic, low-pressure Venturi nozzles that is more than an order of magnitude more accurate than a governing equation approach or conventional flow head calculations. These newly-developed empirical models can be applied for initial nozzle design when precise suction ratios are required.
O’Hern, Hannah↗
A Nonstationary and Non-Gaussian Moving Average Model for Solar Irradiance
Historically, power has flowed from large power plants to customers. Increasing penetration of distributed energy resources such as solar power from rooftop photovoltaic has made the distribution network a two-way-street with power being generated at the customer level. The incorporation of renewables introduces additional uncertainty and variability into the power grid. Distribution network operation studies are being adapted to include renewables; however, such studies require high quality solar irradiance data that adequately reflect realistic meteorological variability. Data from satellite-based products are spatially complete, but temporally coarse, whereas solar irradiances exhibit high frequency variation at very fine timescales. We propose a new stochastic method for temporally downscaling global horizontal irradiance (GHI) to 1 min resolution, but we do not consider the spatial aspect due to limited availability of the in situ irradiance measurements. Solar irradiance's first and second-order structures vary diurnally and seasonally, and our model adapts to such nonstationarity. Empirical irradiance data exhibits highly non-Gaussian behavior; we develop a nonstationary and non-Gaussian moving average model that is shown to capture realistic solar variability at multiple timescales. We also propose a new estimation scheme based on Cholesky factors of empirical autocovariance matrices, bypassing difficult and inaccessible likelihood-based approaches. The model is demonstrated for a case study of three locations that are located in diverse climates through the United States. The model is compared against competitors from the literature and is shown to provide better uncertainty and variability quantification on testing data.
Cholesky factor↗
Model for determining rupture area in Zircaloy cladding under LOCA conditions
The dispersal of nuclear fuel through a cladding rupture opening during a transient event is the primary safety concern preventing the United States nuclear industry from extending burnup beyond a peak rod average burnup of 62 GWd/tU. The majority of research thus far has prioritized understanding, or at a minimum prioritized quantifying, fuel fragmentation and pulverization as a function of burnup and to a lesser extent onset temperature. Early high burnup loss-of-coolant accident tests performed at the Halden Boiling Water Reactor evaluated the impact of relocation on cladding temperature, whereas historical and recent cladding burst tests focused primarily on generating data related to cladding balloon and burst timing. However, very little effort has been put forth to develop a relationship for determining the rupture opening dimensions for Zircaloy cladding tubes bursting during a simulated light water reactor loss-of-coolant accident. This is significant because high burnup loss-of-coolant accident data suggest dispersal could be limited by the size of the rupture opening or rupture dimensions, thereby minimizing the safety concern. Therefore, the purpose of this research is to build a database composed of all simulated loss-of-coolant accident data to develop an empirical model that conservatively captures the rupture opening dimensions and translates those dimensions to rupture area. Analysis of the experimental data indicates the rupture dimensions are strongly correlated to the peak balloon strain. This relationship is leveraged to develop a rupture length empirical correlation as a function of peak balloon strain and a rupture width empirical correlation as a function of rupture length. Outliers in the experimental data are identified and discussed. Finally, the rupture opening empirical model is presented in such a way for general implementation into high fidelity fuel performance codes or fuel performance codes used for safety analyses.
22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
Enhancing high-fidelity neural network potentials through low-fidelity sampling
The efficacy of neural network potentials (NNPs) critically depends on the quality of the configurational datasets used for training. Prior research using empirical potentials has shown that well-selected liquid–solid transitional configurations of a metallic system can be translated to other metallic systems. This study demonstrates that such validated configurations can be relabeled using density functional theory (DFT) calculations, thereby enhancing the development of high-fidelity NNPs. Training strategies and sampling approaches are efficiently assessed using empirical potentials and subsequently relabeled via DFT in a highly parallelized fashion for high-fidelity NNP training. Our results reveal that relying solely on energy and force for NNP training is inadequate to prevent overfitting, highlighting the necessity of incorporating stress terms into the loss functions. To optimize training involving force and stress terms, we propose employing transfer learning to fine-tune the weights, ensuring that the potential surface is smooth for these quantities composed of energy derivatives. This approach markedly improves the accuracy of elastic constants derived from simulations in both empirical potential-based NNPs and relabeled DFT-based NNPs. Overall, this study offers significant insights into leveraging empirical potentials to expedite the development of reliable and robust NNPs at the DFT level.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Calculating the space-charge-limited current density for nonplanar geometries by simulating the charge-free electric field
Calculating the space-charge-limited-current density (SCLCD) for a complicated diode geometry often requires computationally expensive particle-in-cell (PIC) codes. Here, this paper addresses this issue by using the charge-free electric field $E_0$ calculated using COMSOL Multiphysics to determine local and global SCLCD. The SCLCD obtained by using the surface average of $|E_0|^2$ on the cathode recovers theoretical results for one-dimensional (1D) planar, cylindrical, and tip-to-tip geometries in appropriate limits. We next compared tip-to-tip calculations with the SCLCD obtained using the PIC code Empire. The SCLCD calculated using COMSOL agreed well with Empire for flatter 1D tip-to-tip geometries and diverged with increasing sharpness. Physically, Empire predicts lower SCLCD than COMSOL because the electrons spread due to concentrated space-charge at the tip, whereas theory assumes that the electrons follow the charge-free electric field lines. We further assess the behavior of the SCLCD for tips protruding from the centers of flat, circular plates of various areas. Larger plate areas with constant tip size recover the 1D planar SCLCD globally and 1D tip-to-tip SCLCD locally, while reducing the difference between Empire and COMSOL calculations since larger plates capture more of the emitted electrons, reducing SCLCD suppression due to beam spreading. These results show that charge-free electric field simulations can be used to determine the SCLCD without needing to simulate particle dynamics in PIC.
Wright, Jack K. [Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN ↗
Parametric description of intermittent probability distribution functions in solar wind and magnetohydrodynamic turbulence
ABSTRACT In this work, we find empirical evidence that the scale-dependent statistical properties of solar wind and magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) turbulence can be described in terms of a family of parametric probability distribution functions (PDFs) known as Normal Inverse Gaussian (NIG). Understanding these PDFs is one of the most important goals in turbulence theory, as they are inherently connected to the intermittent properties of solar wind turbulence. We investigate the properties of PDFs of Elsasser increments based on a large statistical sample from solar wind observations and high-resolution numerical simulations of MHD turbulence. In order to measure the PDFs and their corresponding properties, three experiments are presented: fast and slow solar wind for experimental data and a simulation of reduced MHD (RMHD) turbulence. Conditional statistics on a 23-yr-long sample of WIND data near 1 au and high-resolution pseudo-spectral simulation of steadily driven RMHD turbulence on a $2048^3$ mesh are used to construct scale-dependent PDFs. The empirical PDFs are fitted to NIG distributions, which depend on four free parameters. Our analysis shows that NIG distributions accurately capture the evolution of the PDFs, with scale-dependent parameters, from large scales characterized by a Gaussian distribution, turning to exponential tails within the inertial range and stretched exponentials at dissipative scales. We also show that empirically-measured NIG parameters exhibit well-defined scaling properties that are similar across the three empirical data sets, which may be indicative of universal behaviour.
Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
Physically based correction of systematic errors of Rotating Shadowband Irradiometers
Accurate measurements of direct normal, diffuse horizontal and global horizontal irradiance (DNI, DHI and GHI) are needed for meteorological studies and are essential for the solar resource assessment at potential solar power plant sites. Often, these potential sites are remote and hence require robust sensors that require minimal maintenance that are not affected strongly by soiling. Therefore, Rotating Shadowband Irradiometers (RSI) are widely used for resource assessment. To achieve the required accuracy, corrections for the raw values of RSIs depending on systematic temperature, incidence angle and spectral errors must be used, and a thorough calibration of the sensor head must be applied. The existing correction functions are derived from comparisons of RSIs to thermopile radiometers at selected sites and therefore empirical. Their accuracy is considered to be site dependent. In this work a new correction and calibration method is presented that removes the systematic errors using a physical approach. It is based on information of the sensor properties as well as measurements of its directional response, and incorporates the atmospheric conditions at the measurement site. In this case, no empiric relations obtained from a specific site are required. The method requires estimates of the current DHI and GHI spectra during each measurement of the RSI. Based on these spectra, a spectral correction, which includes a spectrum dependent temperature correction, can be made without employing empirical relationships. The new physical calibration and correction method is tested at three sites and reaches similar results compared to the empirical functions. This is already achieved with rudimentary estimations of the GHI and DHI spectra and we expect that these estimations can be improved in the future. The results indicate that the physical approach reduces the problematic location dependence of the current calibration and correction methods. The physical correction and calibration method show promise for a further improvement of the RSI accuracy.
47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
The diurnal cycle of entrainment and detrainment in LES of the Southern Ocean driven by observed surface fluxes and waves
Empirical rules for both entrainment and detrainment are developed from LES of the Southern Ocean boundary layer when the turbulence, stratification, and shear cannot be assumed to be in equilibrium with diurnal variability in surface flux and wave (Stokes drift) forcing. A major consequence is the failure of downgradient eddy viscosity, which becomes more serious with Stokes drift and is overcome by relating the angle between the stress and shear vectors to the orientations of Lagrangian shear to the surface and of local Eulerian shear over 5 m. Thus, the momentum flux can be parameterized as a stress magnitude and this empirical direction. In addition, the response of a deep boundary layer to sufficiently strong diurnal heating includes boundary layer collapse and the subsequent growth of a morning boundary layer, whose depth is empirically related to the time history of the forcing, as are both morning detrainment and afternoon entrainment into weak diurnal stratification. Below the boundary layer, detrainment rules give the maximum buoyancy flux and its depth, as well a specific stress direction. Another rule relates both afternoon and nighttime entrainment depth and buoyancy flux to surface layer turbulent kinetic energy production integrals. These empirical relationships are combined with rules for boundary layer transport to formulate two parameterizations; one based on eddy diffusivity and viscosity profiles and another on flux profiles of buoyancy and of stress magnitude. Evaluations against LES fluxes show the flux profiles to be more representative of the diurnal cycle, especially with Stokes drift.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
AI-Enabled Discovery and Physics-Based Optimization of Energy Efficient Processing Strategies for Advanced Turbine Alloys (Final Technical Report)
In this project, the multi-organizational team of academic and industrial researchers from the University of Kentucky an aerospace and energy generation OEM partner has leveraged novel Digital Process Twin (DPT) models of process/structure interactions (i.e., process-induced surface integrity) to advance a paradigm of fully integrated computational materials engineering (ICME). Using efficient process models as the core of a digital process simulator for a reinforcement learning algorithm, the team has integrated industrial data and metrics of structure/performance/energy relationships and manufacturing-related energy metrics to optimize dynamic processing parameters for significantly improved life-cycle energy efficiency of advanced γ-TiAl low-pressure turbine (LPT) alloys, as indicated by a set of design relevant parameters (e.g., residual stresses and scrap rate). The key objective and anticipated outcome of the project was at least a 10% reduction in life-cycle embodied energy for a recently developed, γ-TiAl low-pressure turbine (LPT) alloy and nickel-based superalloy Inconel 718, through the adoption of the proposed AI-enabled process optimization approach. The final project outcomes significantly exceeded this original target, realizing manufacturing-related energy efficiency improvements of more than 130% for TiAl and up to 80% for Inconel 718. Rather than following the prevailing and highly inefficient empirical paradigm, the proposed study demonstrated the feasibility of adopting a digital, physics-based process design and optimization paradigm. The recurring need for manual intervention, rework, reinspection causes significant production bottlenecks and unnecessary expense associated with delivering the requisite component quality. The OEM partner, and turbine industry in general, expect to reap significant cost and resource savings if an AI-optimized set of parameters can be applied to specific machining operations. The technical scope of the proposed project involved the paving of a realistic path towards model-based and AI-enabled Integrated Computational Materials Engineering (ICME), and away from inefficient empirical process optimization and legacy manufacturing practices, which are no longer able to efficiently process novel high-performance turbine alloy materials. The project team will address the fundamental knowledge gap that currently exists within the ICME paradigm with respect to the process/structure/performance/energy impacts of finishing processes. While significant resources have been devoted to the ‘early stages’ of manufacturing, such as alloy design, primary and secondary processing, finishing processes have not been adequately integrated within ICME. To provide an actionable path towards model-based finishing process design (e.g., machining, burnishing, grinding, polishing), we will employ a novel AI-enabled process optimization paradigm, based on a computationally efficient, physics-based process simulator. Through limited experimental work to calibrate and validate our process simulator model via an advanced in-situ characterization technique and process optimization via reinforcement learning, the project will seek to demonstrate a viable alternative to the inefficient ‘legacy’ processing strategies, empirical testing and broad scope machining learning approaches, all of which fail to adequately consider complex process physics. The project team has identified an intermetallic γ-TiAl LPT alloy, which is currently being used as part of the OEM partner’s advanced gas turbine designs. This particular alloy poses significant manufacturing challenges during finishing operations, which limit the degree to which the current turbine design can be manufactured in an energy- and cost-efficient manner. Empirical testing and numerical modeling efforts to optimize processing parameters for γ-TiAl have not been able to resolve these manufacturing challenges, so the proposed physics-based AI-enabled optimization technology would offer a truly novel and transformative capability. The multi-organizational team of academic and industry experts from the UKY and the OEM partner will work together closely to demonstrate the analytical and experimental critical function and characteristic proof of concept of this novel approach.
20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
Rapid Demonstration of Bremsstrahlung Diode Optimization
Optimization of the radiation pattern from a Bremsstrahlung target for a given application is possible by controlling the electron beam that impacts the high-atomic-number target. In this work, the electron beam is generated by a 13MV vacuum diode that terminates a coaxial magnetically insulted transmission line (MITL) on the HERMES-III machine at Sandia National Labs. Work by Sanford introduced a geometry for vacuum diodes that can control the flow within bounds. The "indented anode", as coined by Sanford, can straighten out the electron beam in a high-current diode that would otherwise be prone to beam pinching. A straighter beam will produce a more forwardly directed radiation pattern while a pinching electron beam will yield a focal point or hot spot on axis and a more diffuse radiation pattern. Either one of these may be desirable depending on the application. This work serves as a first attempt to optimize the radiation pattern in the former sense of collimating the radiation pattern given a limited parameter space. The optimization is attempted first using electromagnetic particle-in-cell simulations in the EMPIRE code suite. The setup of the models used in EMPIRE is discussed along with some basic theory behind some of the models used in the simulations such as anode heating and secondary ions. Theoretical work performed by Allen Garner and his students at Purdue is included here, which concerns the impact of collisions in these vacuum diodes. The EMPIRE simulations consider both an aggressive and a conservative design. The aggressive design is inherently riskier while the conservative design is chosen as something that, while still a risk, is more likely to perform as expected. The ultimate goal of this work was to validate the EMPIRE code results with experimental data. While the experiment that tested the diode designs proposed by the simulation results fell outside of the fiscal boundaries of this project (and for that reason the results of which are not included in this report), the hardware for the experiment was designed and drafted within those same fiscal boundaries, and is thus included in this report. However, there was yet another experiment performed in this project that tested a key feature of the diode: the hemispherical cathode. Those results are documented here as well, which show that the cathode tip is an important aspect to controlling the diode flow. A short series of simulations on this diode were also performed after the experiment in order to gain a better understanding of the effect of ions. on the flow pattern and faceplate dose profile.
43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗