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At least 307 records · Page 17

Bayesian modeling of traffic-related air pollutants: A case study of urban transportation and air quality dynamics in Columbia, South Carolina

Traffic emissions significantly impact near-road air quality and public health. This research applies a Bayesian modeling framework to investigate these impacts using high-resolution traffic and air pollutant data from an urban corridor in Columbia, South Carolina. Despite a data collection period truncated by the COVID-19 lockdown, the Bayesian approach successfully identified significant predictors and quantified model uncertainty. Employing Bayesian Model Selection and Averaging enhanced prediction accuracy and evaluated model uncertainty. Findings indicate that higher temperatures and increased moisture levels elevate particulate matter (PM 1.0 , PM 2.5 , PM 10 ) concentrations, while traffic speed significantly affects nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) levels. Specifically, higher average traffic speeds (indicative of smoother flow) correspond to lower NO 2 concentrations, suggesting that less congested conditions reduce NO 2 emissions. This study highlights the robustness of Bayesian methods for generating reliable air quality insights even under data-constrained conditions. The findings underscore the importance of traffic flow management (e.g., reducing congestion) for mitigating near-road NO 2 exposure and provide a basis for developing targeted public health strategies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A three-dimensional model of terrain-induced updrafts for movement ecology studies

Abstract Background Spatially explicit simulation models of animal movements through the atmosphere necessarily require a representation of the spatial and temporal variation of atmospheric conditions. In particular, for movements of soaring birds that rely extensively on vertical updrafts to avoid flapping flight, accurate and reliable estimation of the vertical component of wind is critical. The interaction between wind and complex terrain shapes both the horizontal and vertical wind fields, highlighting the need to model the coupling between local terrain features and atmospheric conditions at scales relevant to animal movement. Methods In this work, we propose a new empirical model for estimating the orographic updraft field. The model is developed using computational fluid dynamics simulations of canonical atmospheric conditions over moderately complex terrain. To isolate buoyancy and thermal effects, and focus on terrain-induced effects, we use only simulations of a neutrally stratified atmosphere to develop the model. The model, which we name Engineering Vertical Velocity Estimator (EVVE), is simple to implement and is a function of the underlying terrain elevation map, the desired height above ground level (AGL), and wind conditions at a reference height (80 m). We validate the model with data from the Alaiz mountain (Spain) field campaign. Results Compared to observations, the proposed improved model estimates the updrafts at 120 m AGL with a mean error of 0.11 m/s ( $$\sigma =0.28$$ σ = 0.28 m/s), compared to 0.85 m/s ( $$\sigma =0.58$$ σ = 0.58 m/s) for its baseline. For typical land-based wind turbine hub heights of 80 m AGL, the proposed model has a mean error of 0.04 m/s ( $$\sigma =0.25$$ σ = 0.25 m/s), compared to baseline 0.54 m/s ( $$\sigma =0.45$$ σ = 0.45 m/s) estimations. We illustrate an application of the model in movement ecology by comparing simulated tracks and presence maps of golden eagles ( Aquila chrysaetos ) moving across two distinct landscapes. The tracks and presence maps are obtained using a simple heuristic-based movement model, with the updraft field given by the proposed model and a wind vector-based estimation approach that is currently in wide use in movement ecology studies of raptors and other soaring birds. Conclusions We highlight that movement model results can be sensitive to the underlying orographic updraft model, especially in studies of fine-scale movements in regions of complex topography. We suggest adopting the proposed model rather than the wind vector estimation method for studies of soaring bird movements.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Evaluating integrated surface/subsurface permafrost thermal hydrology models in ATS (v0.88) against observations from a polygonal tundra site

Numerical simulations are essential tools for understanding the complex hydrologic response of Arctic regions to a warming climate. However, strong coupling among thermal and hydrological processes on the surface and in the subsurface and the significant role that subtle variations in surface topography have in regulating flow direction and surface storage lead to significant uncertainties. Careful model evaluation against field observations is thus important to build confidence.We evaluate the integrated surface/subsurface permafrost thermal hydrology models in the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS) against field observations from polygonal tundra at the Barrow Environmental Observatory. ATS couples a multiphase, 3D representation of subsurface thermal hydrology with representations of overland nonisothermal flows, snow processes, and surface energy balance. We simulated thermal hydrology of a 3D ice-wedge polygon with geometry that is abstracted but broadly consistent with the surface microtopography at our study site. The simulations were forced by meteorological data and observed water table elevations in ice-wedge polygon troughs. With limited calibration of parameters appearing in the soil evaporation model, the 3-year simulations agreed reasonably well with snow depth, summer water table elevations in the polygon center, and high-frequency soil temperature measurements at several depths in the trough, rim, and center of the polygon. Upscaled evaporation is in good agreement with flux tower observations. The simulations were found to be sensitive to parameters in the bare soil evaporation model, snowpack, and the lateral saturated hydraulic conductivity.Timing of fall freeze-up was found to be sensitive to initial snow density, illustrating the importance of including snow aging effects. The study provides new support for an emerging class of integrated surface/subsurface permafrost simulators.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Boron and lithium aqueous thermochemistry to model crud deposition in pressurized water reactors

Here, a comprehensive database of boron and lithium aqueous thermochemistry has been developed for use at elevated temperatures. The Helgeson-Kirkham-Flowers (HKF) formalism provides a framework to describe thermodynamic properties over a broad range of temperatures and pressures. Accuracy at high temperatures is vital to modeling nickel oxide and ferrite fuel deposits that occur in pressurized water nuclear reactors (PWRs). CALPHAD (CALculation of PHAse Diagrams) calculations are performed at PWR crud conditions to predict the stability regions of the solid lithium metaborate (LiBO 2 ) and lithium tetraborate (Li 2 B 4 O 7 ) precipitates. In addition, similar calculations are performed using sodium and potassium instead of lithium in order to assess the thermodynamics associated with preventing the formation of such precipitates. This database contributes to understanding of crud formation and composition and will aid in the prediction of phenomena such as Crud-Induced Power Shifts (CIPS).

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Los Alamos National Laboratory Design Basis Flood Level Modeling Report

This report describes a project conducted by Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) and 3AE Green to determine the base flood elevations for the return periods associated with Flood Design Categories (FDC) 1-3 as identified in DOE-STD-1020-2016. As part of this work, 3AE Green performed two-dimensional (2D) hydraulic modeling of the Design Basis Flood Level (DBFL) for the primary watersheds within the LANL boundary and site-specific sub-watersheds associated with specific existing LANL facilities. The modeling covered an area of approximately 67 square miles.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Snow Distribution Patterns Revisited: A Physics-Based and Machine Learning Hybrid Approach to Snow Distribution Mapping in the Sub-Arctic

Snowpack distribution in Arctic and alpine landscapes often occurs in repeating, year-to-year patterns due to local topographic, weather, and vegetation characteristics. Previous studies have suggested that with years of observational data, these snow distribution patterns can be statistically integrated into a snow process modeling workflow. Recent advances in snow hydrology and machine learning (ML) have increased our ability to predict snowpack distribution using in-situ observations, remote sensing data sets, and simple landscape characteristics that can be easily obtained for most environments. Here, we propose a hybrid approach to couple a ML snow distribution pattern (MLSDP) map with a physics-based, snow process model. We trained a random forest ML algorithm on tens of thousands of snow survey observations from a subarctic study area on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska, collected during peak snow water equivalent (SWE). We validated hybrid model outputs using in-situ snow depth and SWE observations, as well as a light detection and ranging data set and a distributed temperature profiling sensor data set. When the hybrid results were compared with the physics-based method, the hybrid method more accurately depicted the spatial patterns of the snowpack, areas of drifting snow, and years when no in-situ observations were used in the random forest ML training data set. The hybrid method also showed improvements in root mean squared error at 61% of locations where time-series estimations of snow depth were observed. These results can be applied to any physics-based model to improve the snow distribution patterning to reflect observed conditions in high latitude and high elevation cold region environments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Bioenergy sorghum maintains photosynthetic capacity in elevated ozone concentrations

Abstract Elevated tropospheric ozone concentration (O 3 ) significantly reduces photosynthesis and productivity in several C 4 crops including maize, switchgrass and sugarcane. However, it is unknown how O 3 affects plant growth, development and productivity in sorghum ( Sorghum bicolor L.), an emerging C 4 bioenergy crop. Here, we investigated the effects of elevated O 3 on photosynthesis, biomass and nutrient composition of a number of sorghum genotypes over two seasons in the field using free‐air concentration enrichment (FACE), and in growth chambers. We also tested if elevated O 3 altered the relationship between stomatal conductance and environmental conditions using two common stomatal conductance models. Sorghum genotypes showed significant variability in plant functional traits, including photosynthetic capacity, leaf N content and specific leaf area, but responded similarly to O 3 . At the FACE experiment, elevated O 3 did not alter net CO 2 assimilation ( A ), stomatal conductance ( g s ), stomatal sensitivity to the environment, chlorophyll fluorescence and plant biomass, but led to reductions in the maximum carboxylation capacity of phosphoenolpyruvate and increased stomatal limitation to A in both years. These findings suggest that bioenergy sorghum is tolerant to O 3 and could be used to enhance biomass productivity in O 3 polluted regions.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Reconstructing Sediment Transport by Migrating Bedforms in the Physical and Spectral Domains

Abstract Characteristics of migrating bedforms are often used to indirectly quantify the volumetric sediment flux in fluvial environments. Yet, the range of bedform scales that actually contribute to the sediment transport remains elusive. We performed a series of experiments under four different transport stages in a large‐scale sediment recirculating flume. Three independent variables were simultaneously measured: 2D spatio‐temporal bathymetry z ( x , y , t ), high frequency temporal bed elevations at fixed locations z ( t ), and temporal change of the sediment weight carried by migrating bedforms near the channel outlet q m ( t ). Both the measured spatio‐temporal bed evolution and the sediment discharge were analyzed using bedform tracking and Fourier decomposition. We found that small, rapidly migrating secondary bedforms emerge as a main contributor to the sediment transport and to the propagation of larger primary bedforms that slowly migrate underneath. This critical information allows us to define the range of transport‐contributing scales that must be accounted for in a scale‐dependent sediment mass flux model to enable the estimation of the total bedform transport from bed elevation time series.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Parameter Identification for Battery Abuse Reaction Kinetics Models Using DSC Analysis [SWR-23-87]

This code estimates the parameters as inputs for NREL’s abuse reaction kinetics model using Differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) experimental data. The parameters for calculating the rates of abuse reactions among battery cell components at elevated temperatures include frequency factor, activation energy, and reaction orders. The least-squared method is employed to fit the reaction model to DSC data. The code is implemented in MATLAB.

Yang, Chuanbo↗

Adjoint Waveform Tomography for Crustal and Upper Mantle Structure the Middle East and Southwest Asia for Improved Waveform Simulations Using Openly Available Broadband Data

We present a new model of radially anisotropic seismic wavespeeds for the crust and upper mantle of a broad region of the Middle East and Southwest Asia (MESWA) derived from adjoint waveform tomography. We inverted waveforms from 192 Global Centroid Moment Tensor earthquakes (MW 5.5-7.0) recorded by over 1000 openly available broadband seismic stations from permanent and temporary networks in the region. Spatial coverage of the available data is highly uneven due to earthquakes clustered along plate boundaries and sparse coverage of open seismic networks in the region. We considered three possible starting models: the SPiRaL global model (Simmons et al., 2021); MEC-1 (Kaviani et al., 2020); and CSEM2.0 (Noe et al., 2023). Because the SPiRaL model provides good fits to the observed waveforms measured by the time-bandwidth product of selected windows in several period bands, provides all the necessary parameters and covers the entire domain we used it for the starting model with the period band 50-100 seconds. Inversion iterations proceeded using time-frequency phase misfits in six stages and 54 total iterations reducing the minimum period to 30 seconds. Our final model, MESWA, provides improved waveform fits compared to the starting model for both the data used in the inversion and an independent validation data set of 66 events. Two metrics of waveform fit (the time-frequency phase misfit used in the optimization and normalized L2 misfit) were both reduced by nearly 60% for both data sets and MESWA provides significantly larger misfit reductions relative to the SPiRaL model than the MEC-1 or CSEM models. We also find that MESWA provides a larger time-bandwidth product of selected windows indicating that more information content of the observed waveforms is explained by MESWA than the other models. Our new model reveals tectonic features imaged by other studies and methods but in a new holistic model of shear and compressional wavespeeds (v S and v P , respectively) with anisotropy covering the crust and uppermost mantle of a larger domain. MESWA has smaller scale-length features and tends to sharpen some features relative to the SPiRaL starting model. Examples include: low crustal v S in the TurkishIranian Plateau, Zagros Mountains, Afghan Central Blocks and Sulaiman Fold Belt; low mantle vSfollowing divergent (Gulf of Aden, Red Sea) and transform (Dead Sea Fault) margins of the Arabian Plate; low and high v S in the mantle beneath the Arabian Shield and Platform, respectively. Low vS is imaged below Cenozoic volcanic centers of the Arabian Peninsula, the so-called Mecca-Madina-Nafud (MMN) Line. Positive anisotropy (v SH > v SV ) is inferred for asthenospheric depths across the region except where up/downwelling may influence fabric alignment (e.g. Afar, Red Sea, Arabian Shield). Elevated vS tracks Makran subduction under southeast Iran. MESWA resembles the SPiRaL model in its long-wavelength structure, but enhances shorter wavelengths features on the order of 200 km and smaller. The resulting model could be used for as a starting model for further improvements, say using waveforms from in-country seismic networks that are not openly available or smaller-scale studies targeting shorter period waveforms. The model also could be used for source characterization and moment tensor inversion to improve earthquake hazard studies and nuclear explosion monitoring.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

An improved representation of the relationship between photosynthesis and stomatal conductance leads to more stable estimation of conductance parameters and improves the goodness-of-fit across diverse data sets

Stomata play a central role in surface-atmosphere exchange by controlling the flux of water and CO 2 between the leaf and the atmosphere. Representation of stomatal conductance (g sw ) is therefore an essential component of models that seek to simulate water and CO 2 exchange in plants and ecosystems. For given environmental conditions at the leaf surface (CO 2 concentration and vapor pressure deficit or relative humidity), models typically assume a linear relationship between g sw and photosynthetic CO 2 assimilation (A). However, measurement of leaf-level g sw response curves to changes in A are rare, particularly in the tropics, resulting in only limited data to evaluate this key assumption. Here, we measured the response of g sw and A to irradiance in six tropical species at different leaf phenological stages. We showed that the relationship between g sw and A was not linear, challenging the key assumption upon which optimality theory is based-that the marginal cost of water gain is constant. Our data showed that increasing A resulted in a small increase in g sw at low irradiance, but a much larger increase at high irradiance. We reformulated the popular Unified Stomatal Optimization (USO) model to account for this phenomenon and to enable consistent estimation of the key conductance parameters g 0 and g 1 . Our modification of the USO model improved the goodness-of-fit and reduced bias, enabling robust estimation of conductance parameters at any irradiance. In addition, our modification revealed previously undetectable relationships between the stomatal slope parameter g 1 and other leaf traits. We also observed nonlinear behavior between A and g sw in independent datasets that included data collected from attached and detached leaves, and from plants grown at elevated CO 2 concentration. We propose that this empirical modification of the USO model can improve the measurement of g sw parameters and the estimation of plant and ecosystem-scale water and CO 2 fluxes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Alabama Carbon Storage: Bringing Data to the People

The Gulf Coastal Plain of Alabama has proven potential for geologic carbon storage and current interest in the area for large carbon capture and storage (CCS) projects is high. Extensive CCS relevant data exist in the records of the Geological Survey of Alabama and State Oil and Gas Board of Alabama, however, most of this data is not publicly available or is scattered in separate databases, file cabinets, and tables in publications. The “Alabama Carbon Storage: Data Sharing and Engagement” (ACS-DSE) project seeks to accelerate the responsible development of large CCS projects in the Gulf Coastal Plain of Alabama and offshore in state waters through a publicly accessible database of geologic carbon storage models and data across the region. The ACS-DSE draws on the over 150 years of geologic research and over 20 years of experience in CCS research to place relevant geologic, geophysical, and infrastructure data on a single web platform. Datasets available will include formation depths and elevations, geologic structures, reservoir properties, digital well logs (LAS files), existing penetrations, and geologic models. In addition to downloadable datasets, links to CCS related regulatory agencies and other sources of information will be included (for example, Class VI UIC permitting regulations and pipeline regulations). By making these datasets and models available in commonly used formats on a public website, the project will increase transparency in decision making and decrease the data acquisition time for industry.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Leaf Trait Plasticity Alters Competitive Ability and Functioning of Simulated Tropical Trees in Response to Elevated Carbon Dioxide

The response of tropical ecosystems to elevated carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) remains a critical uncertainty in projections of future climate. Here, we investigate how leaf trait plasticity in response to elevated CO 2 alters projections of tropical forest competitive dynamics and functioning. We use vegetation demographic model simulations to quantify how plasticity in leaf mass per area and leaf carbon to nitrogen ratio alter the responses of carbon uptake, evapotranspiration, and competitive ability to a doubling of CO 2 in a tropical forest. Observationally constrained leaf trait plasticity in response to CO 2 fertilization reduces the degree to which tropical tree carbon uptake is affected by a doubling of CO 2 (up to -14.7% as compared to a case with no plasticity; 95% confidence interval [CI95%] -14.4 to -15.0). It also diminishes evapotranspiration (up to -7.0%, CI95% -6.4 to -7.7), and lowers competitive ability in comparison to a tree with no plasticity. Consideration of leaf trait plasticity to elevated CO 2 lowers tropical ecosystem carbon uptake and evapotranspirative cooling in the absence of changes in plant-type abundance. However, “plastic” responses to high CO 2 which maintain higher levels of plant productivity, many of which fall outside of the observed range of response, are potentially more competitively advantageous, thus, including changes in plant type abundance may mitigate these decreases in ecosystem functioning. Models that explicitly represent competition between plants with alternative leaf trait plasticity in response to elevated CO 2 are needed to capture these influences on tropical forest functioning and large-scale climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Wave-by-Wave Forecasting via Assimilation of Marine Radar Data

Abstract This work describes a phase-resolving wave-forecasting algorithm that is based on the assimilation of marine radar image time series. The algorithm is tested against synthetic data and field observations. The algorithm couples X-band marine radar observations with a phase-resolving wave model that uses the linear mild slope equations for reconstruction of water surface elevations over a large domain of O (km) and a prescribed time window of O (min). The reconstruction also enables wave-by-wave forecasting through forward propagation in space and time. Marine radar image time series provide the input wave observations through a previously given relationship between backscatter intensity and the radial component of the sea surface slope. The algorithm assimilates the wave slope information into the model via a best-fit wave source function at the boundary that minimizes the slope reconstruction error over an annular region at the outer ranges of the radar images. The wave model is then able to propagate the waves across a polar domain to a location of interest at nearer ranges. The constraints on the method for achieving real-time forecasting are identified, and the algorithm is verified against synthetic data and tested using field observations.

Engineering↗

Climate Change Will Increase Biomass Proportion of Global Forest Carbon Stocks Under an SSP5–8.5 Climate Trajectory

Abstract A large amount of carbon is stored in global forests. However, the fraction of carbon stored as plant biomass versus soil organic carbon (SOC) varies among forest types, and potential changes over the 21st century are uncertain. Here, we used extensive data derived from inventories and remote sensing and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models to examine the current and 21st century dynamics in the proportion of biomass and SOC across global forests. We found that precipitation, elevation, soil, and wildfire were the primary controls of these differences in carbon pools. Under the SSP5–8.5 climate scenario, CMIP6 models project that the ratio of biomass to ecosystem carbon in global forests will increase across the 21st century, with the largest increases in boreal forests (95 ± 37%) compared to moist tropical forests (16 ± 15%). Changes in forest carbon pools resulting in greater biomass fraction will affect disturbance, and ecosystem carbon and energy balances, all of which interact with the climate system.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Unraveling Thermodynamic and Kinetic Contributions to the Stability of Doped Nanocrystalline Alloys using Nanometallic Multilayers

Abstract Targeted doping of grain boundaries is widely pursued as a pathway for combating thermal instabilities in nanocrystalline metals. However, certain dopants predicted to produce grain‐boundary‐segregated nanocrystalline configurations instead form small nanoprecipitates at elevated temperatures that act to kinetically inhibit grain growth. Here, thermodynamic modeling is implemented to select the Mo–Au system for exploring the interplay between thermodynamic and kinetic contributions to nanostructure stability. Using nanoscale multilayers and in situ transmission electron microscopy thermal aging, evolving segregation states and the corresponding phase transitions are mapped with temperature. The microstructure is shown to evolve through a transformation at lower homologous temperatures (<600 °C) where solute atoms cluster and segregate to the grain boundaries, consistent with predictions from thermodynamic models. An increase in temperature to 800 °C is accompanied by coarsening of the grain structure via grain boundary migration but with multiple pinning events uncovered between migrating segments of the grain boundary and local solute clustering. Direct comparison between the thermodynamic predictions and experimental observations of microstructure evolution thus demonstrates a transition from thermodynamically preferred to kinetically inhibited nanocrystalline stability and provides a general framework for decoupling contributions to complex stability transitions while simultaneously targeting a dominant thermal stability regime.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Long-term shifts in feedbacks among glacier surface change, melt generation and runoff, McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica

Glaciers of the McMurdo dry valleys (MDVs) Antarctica are the main source of streamflow in this polar desert. Because summer air temperatures hover near 0°C small changes in the energy balance strongly affect meltwater generation. In this work, we demonstrate that increased surface roughness, which alters the turbulent transfer of energy between the ice surface and atmosphere, yields a detectable increase in meltwater runoff. At low elevations on the glaciers, basin-like topography became significantly rougher over 13 years between repeat lidar surveys, yielding greater melt. In contrast, the smoother ice at higher elevation exhibited no detectable change in roughness. We pose a conceptual model of the cycle of glacier surface change as a result of climate forcing whereby glacier surfaces transition from being dominated by sublimation to becoming increasingly melt-dominated, which is reversible under prolonged cool periods. This research advances our understanding of warm season effects on polar glaciers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Failure investigation of nuclear grade POCO graphite target in high energy neutrino physics through numerical simulation

In many high energy physics neutrino beamlines, targets are made up of isotropic POCO graphite grade for production of neutrinos for high energy particle physics research and are bombarded with highly energetic pulsed proton beam. The pulsed proton beam with a small beam size creates thermal stress waves as well as radiation damage such as displacement damage, void formation, swelling, and gas formation amongst others. As a result, after a few years of operation one of the longest operated targets appears to have undergone bulk swelling and fractured along the beam centerline. A complex interaction of dynamic loading due to beam, material degradation due to irradiation are thought to have caused such a failure. Here, we present a numerical simulation to capture the combined effects of swelling and the dynamic effect of thermal stress waves due to beam heating, to explain the failure of target. An empirical formula has been developed to take into account swelling as a function of temperature and proton fluence and has been implemented in a commercial finite element code. Extensive X-ray diffraction (XRD) were performed on graphite samples from the failed target to understand the lattice parameter changes due to irradiation and build a valid empirical model. Simulation results show that swelling plays a major role in elevating the stress state in the material exceeding the failure strength while the pulsed beam heating also introduces fatigue loading that would explain brittle fracture emanating from inside of the material and propagating outward. Such empirical formulations will help in identifying the threshold values of critical parameters to extend the service life of future multi-megawatt neutrino targets and targets in other accelerator environments.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗