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At least 307 records · Page 17

Scout Benchmark Scenarios for U.S. Building Energy and CO2 Emissions to 2050

Overview and Intended Use Cases: These scenarios establish a range of futures for U.S. buildings sector energy use and CO2 emissions to 2050 using Scout (scout.energy.gov), a reproducible and granular model of U.S. building energy use, emissions, and consumer costs developed by the U.S. national labs for the U.S. Department of Energy's Building Technologies Office (BTO). Scout benchmark scenario data are suitable for the following example use cases: setting high-level policy goals for the U.S. buildings sector to 2050 (e.g., X% building CO2 emissions reductions vs. 2005 levels by 2030, Y% reductions vs. 2005 levels by 2050); exploring the effects of key dynamics driving U.S. buildings sector energy and CO2 emissions to 2050 that could be affected by policy levers (e.g., raising minimum technology performance levels; accelerating electrification and/or retrofit rates; introducing breakthrough technologies to the market); determining priority segments (regions, building types, and end use/technology types) and sequencing of U.S. buildings sector energy and CO2 emissions reductions to 2050 under a given set of assumptions; and/or identifying the energy and emissions impacts or cost effectiveness of specific technologies or operational approaches of interest—in isolation or after considering competition with other measures in a scenario portfolio. Scenario Summary: A total of 8 scenarios explore the effects of changes across both the demand- and supply-side of building energy use on annual U.S. building energy use and CO2 emissions from 2022–2050. Scenarios are organized into three groups representing low, moderate, and best-case potentials for building decarbonization, respectively.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Modeling Wind in Agrivoltaics and its Impact on Eddy Covariance Flux Measurements

Silicon Ranch is conducting a research study at their 138MW Bancroft Station agrivoltaics site, the largest agrivoltaics research array in the US, in which they are using an eddy covariance flux tower to measure the carbon budget. They are interested in finding out if the presence of the panels changes the effectiveness of these measurements. To investigate this topic, NLR performed numerical simulations of wind through the agrivoltaic array to identify under what environmental conditions (wind speed, wind direction, temperatures) and panel tilt angles the mean wind speeds at the measurement heights are significantly altered by the presence of the solar panels. NLR adapted and used the PVade simulation tool [1] to model wind in Silicon Ranch's agrivoltaic array and found that at the height of the flux tower (6m), the wind speed measured is not significantly altered by the presence of solar panels. The percent difference is less than 4% and is generally greatest during daytime conditions at higher wind speeds and perpendicular wind direction. Closer to the ground, the flow is significantly altered (wind speeds are reduced) by the presence of solar panels and the percent difference increases in strong winds. The work confirmed that eddy covariance flux towers can be used within the context of a solar array field.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Conjugate Heat Transfer Analysis of the Supercritical CO2 Based Counter Flow Compact 3D Heat Exchangers

Compact heat exchangers using supercritical fluids such as CO2 are preferred due to their high heat transfer capacity and smaller footprint. Three-dimensional conjugate forced convection heat transfer analysis was performed on several shell-and-tube counter-flow microchannel heat exchangers. Numerical simulations were conducted to test effect of change in mass flow rate, hydraulic diameter and various cross sections on the heat transfer. Increasing mass flow rate improved heat transfer up to a maximum value and then decreased downstream with increasing turbulence. Maximum heat transfer was obtained for the micro channel with the smallest hydraulic diameter. Amongst the cross sections analyzed (circular, square, circular with radial ribs, and square with radial ribs), the most uniform distribution of temperature and maximum heat transfer were obtained for circular cross section with radial ribs. An optimally efficient operation of such a heat exchanger can be attained by considering these factors during multi-objective constrained optimization of geometric parameters and requirements for additive manufacturing of such compact heat exchangers.

Chitale, Janhavi↗

WORKSHOP ON URBAN SCALE PROCESSES AND THEIR REPRESENTATION IN HIGH SPATIAL RESOLUTION EARTH SYSTEM MODELS

It is essential that numerical models used to study physics, chemistry, and biology affecting the Earth system at regional and global scales represent the effects of urban areas on climate and the effects of changing the climate on urban areas. At the same time, it is essential to develop state of the art, simple and accurate urban models to better understand the relevant processes and also toaddress issues related to urban security against the spectra of chemical, biological and radiological (CBR) hazards. Towards bringing these communities together, a 2.5-day international workshop was held at Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) in the Chicago area on May 22-24, 2019. This workshop brought together national and international experts to develop a roadmap for a better understanding of the issues associated with urban areas and at enhancing the capabilities of regional and global Earth System models (ESMs) in representing the atmospheric dynamics and chemistry, unique aspects of the biosphere and land use, and human dimensions of the urban environment. This workshop was especially important to those developing very high-resolution versions of regional and global models. The workshop also discussed existing datasets, including in situ and satellite observations, and the emerging smart city sensing technologies and their possible use in model development (e.g., the NSF-funded Array of Things network currently operating in Chicago and expanding to other cities).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Adaptive Protective Relay Settings – A Vision to the Future

Adaptive relaying utilizes the continuously changing status of the power system as the basis for online adjustment of the power system relay settings. Fundamentally they are protection schemes that adjust settings and/or logic of operations based on the prevailing conditions of the system. These adjustments can include, but are not limited to, the logging of data for post-mortem analysis, communication throughout the system, as well as changing relay parameters. Adaptive relaying considers the fact that the status of a power system can change. These include system configuration changes, load effect, cold load pickup, end-of-line protection, transformer protection, and automatic reclosing. In this research, the author focus on the need for a secure, selective, and reliable system for adaptive overcurrent protection in T&D and Distributed Energy Systems. Various types of adaptive methods are presented and explained along with some pros and cons of each.

Mukherjee, Srijib↗

Generative attribute optimization

A generative attribute optimization (“GAO”) system facilitates understanding of effects of changes of attribute values of an object on a characteristic of the object and automatically identifying attribute values to achieve a desired result for the characteristic. The GAO system trains a generator (encoder and decoder) using an attribute generative adversarial network. The GAO model includes the trained generator and a separately trained predictor model. The GAO model inputs an input image and modified attribute values and employs the encoder and the decoder to generate a modified image that is the input image modified based on the modified attribute values. The GAO model then employs the predictor model to that inputs the modified image and generate a prediction of a characteristic of the modified image. The GAO system may employ an optimizer to modify the attribute values until an objective based on the desired result is achieved.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Initial Split Disk Mechanical Testing Studies with a Digital Image Correlator

Nuclear graphite plays a pivotal role in the advanced reactor program. Consequently, developing a viable method to measure and evaluate small samples is essential. The Digital Image Correlation (DIC) technique allows for the examination of much smaller components in real-time applications, particularly concerning reactor capsule design and placement within the reactor. These samples become crucial for understanding the behavior of nuclear graphite before and after radiation exposure. They serve as a means to analyze changes and effectively measure the mechanical strength properties, which may or may not alter following irradiation.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Integrating Phase Change Materials within Catalysts for Effective Heat Management

Here, most fuel conversion technologies, including Fischer-Tropsch synthesis, C-C coupling, methanol synthesis, and aldol condensation reactions, are highly exothermic, making precise temperature control essential to avoid thermodynamic limitations while maintaining selectivity and catalyst stability. Current industrial practice mitigates these effects primarily through reactor-level, ex situ temperature control strategies — such as heat exchangers, multi-tubular reactors, or quench cooling — but these approaches fall short in regulating the heat generated, transported, and dissipated at the catalyst particle scale.

Karakaya, Canan [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (OR↗

Quantifying the effects of multiple land management practices, land cover change, and wildfire on the California landscape carbon budget with an empirical model

The effectiveness of land-based climate mitigation strategies is generally estimated on a case-by-case basis without considering interactions with other strategies or influencing factors. Here we evaluate a new, comprehensive approach that incorporates interactions among multiple management strategies, land use/cover change, wildfire, and climate, although the potential effects of climate change are not evaluated in this study. The California natural and working lands carbon and greenhouse gas model (CALAND) indicates that summing individual practice estimates of greenhouse gas impacts may underestimate emission reduction benefits in comparison with an integrated estimate. Annual per-area estimates of the potential impact of specific management practices on landscape emissions can vary based on the estimation period, which can be problematic for extrapolating such estimates over space and time. Furthermore, the actual area of implementation is a primary factor in determining potential impacts of management on landscape emissions. Nonetheless, less intensive forest management, avoided conversion to urban land, and urban forest expansion generally create the largest annual per-area reductions, while meadow restoration and forest fuel reduction and harvest practices generally create the largest increases with respect to no management. CALAND also shows that data uncertainty is too high to determine whether California land is a source or a sink of carbon emissions, but that estimating effects of management with respect to a baseline provides valid results. Important sources of this uncertainty are initial carbon density, net ecosystem carbon accumulation rates, and land use/cover change data. The appropriate choice of baseline is critical for generating valid results.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Effects of forest structural and compositional change on forest microclimates across a gradient of disturbance severity

Forest structural diversity and community composition are key in regulating forest microclimates. When disturbance affects structural diversity or composition, forest microclimates may be altered due to changes in soil temperature, soil water content, and light availability. It is unclear however which structural or compositional components, when changed or to what extent, result in microclimatic change. To address this question, we used data from a large scale, manipulative stem-girdling experiment in northern, lower Michigan—the Forest Resilience and Threshold Experiment (FoRTE). FoRTE follows a factorial design with multiple levels of disturbance severity (0, 45, 65, 85%) based on targeted reductions in gross leaf area index via stem-girdling induced mortality. These disturbance severity treatments are applied in two ways: either as top-down (largest trees are killed) or bottom-up (small to medium trees killed) treatments. We examined how multiple components of structural diversity and community composition changed as a product of disturbance severity and type, and then tested for resulting effects on forest microclimates (light availability, soil temperature, and soil water), using a multivariate, Random Forest framework. We found that measures of community composition (species richness, species evenness, and Shannon-Wiener Diversity Index) and stand structure (basal area, standard deviation of DBH, tree size diversity) declined more following disturbance than did measures of canopy cover, heterogeneity, arrangement, or height. However, when changes in each variable from pre- to post-disturbance, measured as log change, were employed in a multivariate, Random Forest regression framework, structural diversity measures of heterogeneity (rugosity, top rugosity), cover (canopy cover), and arrangement (porosity) were the most influential variables, but with differences among bottom-up and top-down treatments We found that the death of large trees from disturbance impacts soil temperature, water, and light environments more substantially and uniformly across disturbance gradients than does the death of smaller trees. Furthermore, our results have implications for both statistical and process-based modeling of forest disturbance.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Enhanced beam-beam modeling to include longitudinal variation during weak-strong simulation

Beam-beam interactions pose substantial challenges in the design and operation of circular colliders, significantly affecting their performance. In particular, the weak-strong simulation approach is pivotal for investigating single-particle dynamics during the collider design phase. This paper evaluates the limitations of existing models in weak-strong simulations, noting that while they accurately account for energy changes due to slingshot effects, they fail to incorporate longitudinal coordinate changes ( z variation). To address this gap, we introduce two novel transformations that enhance Hirata’s original framework by including both z variation and slingshot effect-induced energy changes. Through rigorous mathematical analysis and extensive weak-strong simulation studies, we validate the efficacy of these enhancements in achieving a more precise simulation of beam-beam interactions. Our results reveal that although z variation constitutes a higher-order effect and does not substantially affect the emittance growth rate within the specific design parameters of the Electron-Ion Collider, the refined model offers improved accuracy, particularly in scenarios involving the interaction between beam-beam effects and other random diffusion processes, as well as in simulations incorporating realistic lattice models. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Evaluating cascaded and tunable phase change materials for enhanced thermal energy storage utilization and effectiveness in building envelopes

The incorporation of phase change materials (PCMs) in envelope is considered an effective thermal energy storage (TES) method for energy savings and load flexibility in buildings. However, an important limitation of PCMs is their fixed and narrow transition temperature range. Because the interior temperature setpoints are typically different in summer versus winter, and the exterior temperature varies substantially above and below the setpoints during the year, PCMs with a fixed transition temperature are utilized only during part of the year. In this paper, we provide an extensive numerical analysis of the performance of a lightweight building envelope containing three different types of PCMs: traditional single-layer PCM with a fixed transition temperature, novel cascaded two-layer PCM with different transition temperatures, and a "futuristic" tunable PCM whose transition temperature can be varied in-situ using external excitation. We compare their performances by evaluating the relationship between the PCM utilization and parameters such as latent heat, transition temperature range, PCM thickness, and PCM location. While traditional PCMs are mostly active during one season, properly designed cascaded and tunable PCMs can be active much longer, thereby allowing load shift and energy savings in both heating and cooling seasons. Under the operating conditions considered in this study, tunable PCMs performed best, providing the highest utilization (about 2 times the traditional PCMs) and enhanced effectiveness (up to 99% peak load reduction in cooling season and 34% peak load reduction in heating season) with the same amount of material as the traditional PCMs; however, cascaded PCMs can be a good alternative while tunable PCMs are unavailable.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Ensemble modeling of watershed-scale hydrologic effects of short-rotation woody crop production

Short-rotation woody crop (SRWC) production involves a set of silvicultural practices that aim to produce large volumes of biomass over relatively short time frames. The area over which these practices are employed is likely to increase in the coming decades as the demand for bioenergy increases, but the potential effects of this change in land management, including the hydrologic effects, are largely unknown. Here we outline the results from an ensemble modeling study that was developed to forecast the range of potential hydrological responses to the implementation of SRWC production over areas that are large (>1000 ha) relative to the size of individual clearcuts. The three models, SWAT, MIKE-SHE, and Envision-SRS, a physically based model designed to represent watersheds with dynamic land cover, represent a range of simulation tools that include hydrological response to landcover change. Results suggest that SRWC production will affect the hydrologic balance, primarily through changes in the volume of transpired water associated with the rapidly growing young stands. In particular, average annual actual evapotranspiration (ET) rates tend to decline under SRWC production in response to the less mature vegetation. These reductions in ET are balanced in the hydrological cycle through elevated groundwater recharge, expressed in the model results as elevated annual stream discharge.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Hillslope-Channel Transitions and the Role of Water Tracks in a Changing Permafrost Landscape

The Arctic is experiencing rapid climate change, and the effect on hydrologic processes and resulting geomorphic changes to hillslopes and channels is unclear because we lack quantitative models and theory for rapid changes resulting from thawing permafrost. Here, the presence of permafrost modulates water flow and the stability of soil-mantled slopes, implying that there should be a signature of permafrost processes, including warming-driven disturbance, in channel network extent. To inform understanding of hillslope-channel dynamics under changing climates, we examined soil-mantled hillslopes within a ~300 km 2 area of the Seward Peninsula, western Alaska, where discontinuous permafrost is particularly susceptible to thaw and rapid landscape change. In this study, we pair high-resolution topographic and satellite data to multi-annual observations of InSAR-derived surface displacement over a 5-year period to quantify spatial variations in topographic change across an upland landscape. We find that neither the basin slope nor the presence of knickzones controls the magnitude of recent surface displacements within the study basin, as may be expected under conceptual models of temperate hillslope evolution. Rather, the highest displacement magnitudes tended to occur at the broad hillslope-channel transition zone. In this study area, this zone is occupied by water tracks, which are zero-order ecogeomorphic features that concentrate surface and subsurface flow paths. Our results suggest that water tracks, which appear to occupy hillslope positions between saturation and incision thresholds, are vulnerable to warming-induced subsidence and incision. We hypothesize that gullying within water tracks will outpace infilling by hillslope processes, resulting in the growth of the channel network under future warming.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Early-Time Exponential Instabilities in Nonchaotic Quantum Systems

The majority of classical dynamical systems are chaotic and exhibit the butterfly effect: a minute change in initial conditions has exponentially large effects later on. But this phenomenon is difficult to reconcile with quantum mechanics. One of the main goals in the field of quantum chaos is to establish a correspondence between the dynamics of classical chaotic systems and their quantum counterparts. In isolated systems in the absence of decoherence, there is such a correspondence in dynamics, but it usually persists only over a short time window, after which quantum interference washes out classical chaos. In this work, we demonstrate that quantum mechanics can also play the opposite role and generate exponential instabilities in classically nonchaotic systems within this early-time window. Our calculations employ the out-of-time-ordered correlator (OTOC)—a diagnostic that reduces to the Lyapunov exponent in the classical limit but is well defined for general quantum systems. We show that certain classically nonchaotic models, such as polygonal billiards, demonstrate a Lyapunov-like exponential growth of the OTOC at early times with Planck’s-constant-dependent rates. This behavior is sharply contrasted with the slow early-time growth of the analog of the OTOC in the systems’ classical counterparts. These results suggest that classical-to-quantum correspondence in dynamics is violated in the OTOC even before quantum interference develops.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Climate Change Science Review 2018 and Associated Social and Economic Impacts

Climate change and its impacts on average temperature, water supply, agriculture, coastal flooding, biodiversity, social and economic stability, human migration, and overall global stability is one of the leading threats emerging for humanity, and is likely to increase as a threat for decades to come. This report represents a snapshot of climate change data, information, and understanding, as of 2018, and can serve as a kind of benchmark for changes going forward in time. This report covers temperature change and heat effects, atmospheric and ocean circulation, freshwater supply changes, sea level rise and flooding, extreme climate events, oceanic deoxygenation, land degredation, social and economic changes, migration, and food. Data and information on all these issues represent a compelling body of knowledge supporting the scientific hypothesis describing climate change, and an important mile marker in our effort to track the unfolding nature of the problem. A slide presentation that summarizes the content of this report is in Appendix A and can serve as an executive summary for the report.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗