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DOE OSTI2024

Interpreting the spatial distribution of soil properties with a physically-based distributed hydrological model

Digital soil maps are commonly data-driven as the development of physically-based models for soil mapping is difficult due to the complexity of soils. However, physically-based hydrologic models have been successful in simulating water dynamics. Since water movement is a major driver of pedogenesis, the physical rules that govern water movement might help explain and predict the spatial variation of soil properties. Here, we demonstrate the novel use of a physically-based, distributed hydrologic model to inform the spatial distribution of soil properties. The Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM) was utilized to simulate soil moisture content (SM) and water table depth (WTD) in two hillslope catchments under pasture and forest management wherein hydrologic model outputs were then compared with soil properties measured in situ. SM sensors and wells were installed in both catchments to validate simulations of soil water movement via Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (E). In-situ observations were made at 87 sites within both catchments to study the connection between simulated water movement (SM and WTD) and observed soil properties, namely the depth and thickness of the argillic (Bt), fragic (Btx), and C horizons, and the depth of redoximorphic features. The simulated time series of SM and WTD were also clustered per season using Dynamic Time Warping (DTW), which identified similarity among time series at varying timescales. Model validation suggested that simulations of surficial SM (0–20 cm) were reasonable (E = 0.45), however, simulated subsurface SM (45–60 cm) and WTD were not sufficiently accurate. The thickness of Btx horizons were spatially grouped into different populations by SM clusters from every season except spring. For the other properties, only SM dynamics of specific seasons grouped into significantly different populations, suggesting that the explanatory power of simulated water movement varies seasonally and was greater during winter. Here, we show clusters of simulated SM separated soil properties into statistically different populations, showing that hydrologic models could inform areas that followed different water dynamics related to pedogenic trajectories and related biogeochemical processes not necessarily simulated by the model. As such, physically-based modeling of water dynamics can, therefore, inform and advance digital soil mapping by linking water movement patterns stemming from hydrologic model outputs to spatial patterns of soil properties and pedogenesis.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Future increases in Amazonia water stress from CO 2 physiology and deforestation

Several different drivers are contributing to climate change within the Amazon basin, including forcing from greenhouse gases and aerosols, plant physiology responses to rising CO 2 , and deforestation. Attribution among these drivers has not been quantified for Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) climate simulations. Here we identify the contribution of CO 2 physiology and deforestation to future hydroclimate change in the Amazon basin by combining information from four experiments and eight different Earth system models in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6. Together, forcing from CO 2 physiology and deforestation account for about 44% of the projected annual precipitation decline, 48% of surface relative humidity decline and 11% of warming over the Amazon basin by 2100 for SSP3-7.0. Further, other Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 SSP simulations have similar contributions from the two drivers. Insight from our attribution analysis can aid in identifying research priorities aimed at reducing uncertainty in future projections of water availability, carbon dynamics and wildfire risk.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Dynamic Response of a Semiactive Suspension System with Hysteretic Nonlinear Energy Sink Based on Random Excitation by means of Computer Simulation

This paper aims to investigate the property and behavior of the hysteretic nonlinear energy sink (HNES) coupled to a half vehicle system which is a nine-degree-of-freedom, nonlinear, and semiactive suspension system in order to improve the ride comfort and increase the stability in shock mitigation by using the computer simulation method. The HNES model is a semiactive suspension device, which comprises the famous Bouc–Wen (B-W) model employed to describe the force produced by both the purely hysteretic spring and linear elastic spring of potentially negative stiffness connected in parallel, for the half vehicle system. Nine nonlinear motion equations of the half vehicle system are derived in terms of the seven displacements and the two dimensionless hysteretic variables, which are integrated numerically by employing the direct time integration method for studying both the variables of vertical displacements, velocities, accelerations, chassis pitch angle, and the ride comfort and driver safety, respectively, based on the bump and random road inputs of the pseudoexcitation method as excitation signal. Simulation results show that, compared with the HNES model and the magnetorheological (MR) model coupled to the half vehicle system, the ride comfort and stability have been evidently improved. A successful validation process has been performed, which indicated that both the ride comfort and driver safety properties of the HNES model coupled to half vehicle significantly improved.

Chen, Hui↗

DOE OSTI2024

STITCHES: a Python package to amalgamate existing Earth system model output into new scenario realizations

Understanding the interaction between humans and the Earth system is a computationally daunting task, with many possible approaches depending on resources available and questions of interest. For example, state-of-the-art impact models require decade-long time series of relatively high frequency, spatially resolved and often multiple variables representing climatic impact-drivers (Ruane et al., 2022). Most commonly these are derived from the outputs of detailed, computationally expensive Earth System Models (ESMs) run according to a standard, limited set of future scenarios, the latest being the SSP-RCPs run under CMIP6/ScenarioMIP (Eyring et al., 2016; O’Neill et al., 2016). At the time of writing, O’Neill et al. (2016) has been cited more than 1750 times and Eyring et al. (2016) more than 5000 times, highlighting the broad, general applications of this data. Often, however, impact modeling seeks to explore new scenarios that were not part of the ScenarioMIP protocol, and/or needs a larger set of initial condition ensemble members than are typically available to quantify the effects of ESM internal variability. In addition, the recognition that the human and Earth systems are fundamentally intertwined, and may feature potentially significant feedback loops, is making integrated, simultaneous modeling of the coupled human-Earth system increasingly necessary, if computationally challenging with most existing tools (Thornton et al., 2017). For impact modelers, climate model emulators can be the answer to meet both the needs of: 1) creating realizations for novel scenarios and 2) achieving a simplified, computationally tractable representation of ESM behavior in a coupled human-Earth system modeling framework. We proposed a new, comprehensive approach to such emulation of gridded, multivariate ESM outputs for novel scenarios without the computational cost of a full ESM, STITCHES (Tebaldi et al., 2022). The approach outlined in Tebaldi et al. (2022) should be extensible to future CMIP eras, although the STITCHES software at present is strictly focused on CMIP6/ScenarioMIP data hosted on Pangeo (https://gallery.pangeo.io/repos/pangeo-gallery/cmip6/). The corresponding STITCHES Python package uses existing archives of ESMs’ scenario experiments from CMIP6/ScenarioMIP to construct gridded, multivariate realizations of new scenarios provided by reduced complexity climate models (Hartin et al., 2015; Meinshausen et al., 2011; Smith et al., 2018), or to enrich existing initial condition ensembles. Its output provides the same characteristics as the emulated ESM output: multivariate (spanning potentially all variables that the ESM has saved), spatially resolved (down to the native grid of the ESM), and preserving the same high frequency as the original data. A new realization of multiple variables can be generated on the order of minutes with STITCHES, rather than the hours or sometimes days that ESMs require.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Same-sided successive-shock HED instability experiments

Inertial confinement fusion (ICF) and high-energy density (HED) physics experiments experience complicated forcing for instability growth and mix due to the ubiquitous presence of multiple shocks interacting with perturbations on multiple material interfaces. One common driver of instability growth is successive shocks from the same direction. However, there is a severe lack of analytic work and modeling validation for same-sided successive shocks since they are extremely difficult to achieve with conventional (non-HED) drivers. Successive shocks access a large instability parameter space; idealized fluid theory [K. O. Mikaelian, Phys. Rev. A 31, 410 (1985)] predicts 15 different interface evolution scenarios for a sinusoidal perturbation. Growth becomes more complex for multi-mode, compressible HED systems. The Mshock campaign is the first experiment in any fluid regime to probe a wide portion of successive shock parameter space. This is enabled by our development of a hybrid direct/indirect drive platform capable of creating independently controllable successive shocks on the National Ignition Facility. These experiments have delivered the first data capable of rigorously challenging our models and their ability to accurately capture Richtmyer–Meshkov growth under successive shocks. Single-mode and two-mode experiments have successfully demonstrated the ability to access and control the various growth scenarios of the shocked interface, including re-inversion, freeze out, and continued growth. Simulations and theoretical modeling are shown to accurately capture the experimental observations in the linear growth phase, giving us confidence in our ICF/HED design codes.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Understanding drivers of oil and gas well integrity issues in the greater wattenberg area of Colorado

Well integrity is critically important to maintain to minimize the environmental impacts of oil and gas development and other subsurface energy operations. The Wattenberg Field of Colorado—a top producing field with >40,000 wells—has one of the most robust publicly reported well integrity programs in the country. Here, in this study, we analyzed annular pressure and annular-fluid geochemical test results collected from Wattenberg wells through the end of 2019 to characterize the frequency and spatial variability of integrity issues in the field and understand their drivers. Estimated frequencies of integrity issues among tested wells were 8.2-17.1% between 1955 and 2019 and 6.1-11.4% in 2019 alone. The frequency of integrity issues was nearly four times greater in wells located above the Longmont Wrench Fault Zone. Potential drivers of integrity issues were identified using ensemble decision tree models trained with a broad set of relevant information. Models show that well integrity issues are spatially clustered on regional and sub-regional scales and suggest the relatively high frequency of integrity issues observed is likely attributed to geologic factors. These findings are valuable for regulatory agencies and operators seeking to inform well integrity monitoring, plugging, and emissions reduction efforts and design future subsurface energy projects.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Endothermic physiology of extinct megatooth sharks

The evolution of the extinct megatooth shark, Otodus megalodon , and its close phylogenetic relatives remains enigmatic. A central question persists regarding the thermophysiological origins of these large predatory sharks through geologic time, including whether O. megalodon was ectothermic or endothermic (including regional endothermy), and whether its thermophysiology could help to explain the iconic shark’s gigantism and eventual demise during the Pliocene. To address these uncertainties, we present unique geochemical evidence for thermoregulation in O. megalodon from both clumped isotope paleothermometry and phosphate oxygen isotopes. Our results show that O. megalodon had an overall warmer body temperature compared with its ambient environment and other coexisting shark species, providing quantitative and experimental support for recent biophysical modeling studies that suggest endothermy was one of the key drivers for gigantism in O. megalodon and other lamniform sharks. The gigantic body size with high metabolic costs of having high body temperatures may have contributed to the vulnerability of Otodus species to extinction when compared to other sympatric sharks that survived the Pliocene epoch.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Single-Shot Reconstruction of Electron Beam Longitudinal Phase Space in a Laser Wakefield Accelerator

We report on a single-shot longitudinal phase-space reconstruction diagnostic for electron beams in a laser wakefield accelerator via the experimental observation of distinct periodic modulations in the angularly resolved spectra. Such modulated angular spectra arise as a result of the direct interaction between the ultrarelativistic electron beam and the laser driver in the presence of the wakefield. A constrained theoretical model for the coupled oscillator, assisted by a genetic algorithm, can recreate the experimental electron spectra and, thus, fully reconstructs the longitudinal phase-space distribution of the electron beam with a temporal resolution of approximately 1.3 fs. In particular, it reveals the slice energy spread of the electron beam, which is important to measure for applications such as x-ray free electron lasers. In our experiment, the root-mean-square energy spread retrieved is bounded at 9.9 MeV, corresponding to a 0.9%–3.0% relative spread, despite the overall GeV energy beam having approximately 100% relative energy spread.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Rising Water Levels and Vegetation Shifts Drive Substantial Reductions in Methane Emissions and Carbon Dioxide Uptake in a Great Lakes Coastal Freshwater Wetland

ABSTRACT Coastal freshwater wetlands are critical ecosystems for both local and global carbon cycles, sequestering substantial carbon while also emitting methane (CH 4 ) due to anoxic conditions. Estuarine freshwater wetlands face unique challenges from fluctuating water levels, which influence water quality, vegetation, and carbon cycling. However, the response of CH 4 fluxes and their drivers to altered hydrology and vegetation remains unclear, hindering mechanistic modeling. To address these knowledge gaps, we studied an estuarine freshwater wetland in the Great Lakes region, where rising water levels led to a vegetation shift from emergent Typha dominance in 2015–2016 to floating‐leaved species in 2020–2022. Using eddy covariance flux measurements during the peak growing season (June–September) of both periods, we observed a 60% decrease in CH 4 emissions, from 81 ± 4 g C m −2 in 2015–2016 to 31 ± 3 g C m −2 in 2020–2022. This decline was driven by two main factors: (1) higher water levels, which suppressed ebullitive fluxes via increased hydrostatic pressure and extended CH 4 residence time, enhancing oxidation potential in the water column; and (2) reduced CH 4 conductance through plants. Net carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) uptake decreased by 90%, from −267 ± 26 g C m −2 in 2015–2016 to −27 ± 49 g C m −2 in 2020–2022. Additionally, diel CH 4 flux patterns shifted, with a distinct morning peak observed in 2015–2016 but absent in 2020–2022, suggesting changes in plant‐mediated transport and a potential decoupling from photosynthesis. The dominant factors influencing CH 4 fluxes shifted from water temperature and gross primary productivity in 2015–2016 to atmospheric pressure in 2020–2022, suggesting an increased role of ebullition as a primary transport pathway. Our results demonstrate that changes in water levels and vegetation can substantially alter CH 4 and CO 2 fluxes in coastal freshwater wetlands, underscoring the critical role of hydrological shifts in driving carbon dynamics in these ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Efficient First-Order Algorithms for Large-Scale, Non-Smooth Maximum Entropy Models with Application to Wildfire Science

Maximum entropy (MaxEnt) models are a class of statistical models that use the maximum entropy principle to estimate probability distributions from data. Due to the size of modern data sets, MaxEnt models need efficient optimization algorithms to scale well for big data applications. State-of-the-art algorithms for MaxEnt models, however, were not originally designed to handle big data sets; these algorithms either rely on technical devices that may yield unreliable numerical results, scale poorly, or require smoothness assumptions that many practical MaxEnt models lack. In this paper, we present novel optimization algorithms that overcome the shortcomings of state-of-the-art algorithms for training large-scale, non-smooth MaxEnt models. Our proposed first-order algorithms leverage the Kullback–Leibler divergence to train large-scale and non-smooth MaxEnt models efficiently. For MaxEnt models with discrete probability distribution of n elements built from samples, each containing m features, the stepsize parameter estimation and iterations in our algorithms scale on the order of O(mn) operations and can be trivially parallelized. Moreover, the strong ℓ1 convexity of the Kullback–Leibler divergence allows for larger stepsize parameters, thereby speeding up the convergence rate of our algorithms. To illustrate the efficiency of our novel algorithms, we consider the problem of estimating probabilities of fire occurrences as a function of ecological features in the Western US MTBS-Interagency wildfire data set. Our numerical results show that our algorithms outperform the state of the art by one order of magnitude and yield results that agree with physical models of wildfire occurrence and previous statistical analyses of wildfire drivers.

Physics↗

DOE OSTI2022

Machine learning-assisted elucidation of CD81–CD44 interactions in promoting cancer stemness and extracellular vesicle integrity

Tumor-initiating cells with reprogramming plasticity or stem-progenitor cell properties (stemness) are thought to be essential for cancer development and metastatic regeneration in many cancers; however, elucidation of the underlying molecular network and pathways remains demanding. Combining machine learning and experimental investigation, here we report CD81, a tetraspanin transmembrane protein known to be enriched in extracellular vesicles (EVs), as a newly identified driver of breast cancer stemness and metastasis. Using protein structure modeling and interface prediction-guided mutagenesis, we demonstrate that membrane CD81 interacts with CD44 through their extracellular regions in promoting tumor cell cluster formation and lung metastasis of triple negative breast cancer (TNBC) in human and mouse models. In-depth global and phosphoproteomic analyses of tumor cells deficient with CD81 or CD44 unveils endocytosis-related pathway alterations, leading to further identification of a quality-keeping role of CD44 and CD81 in EV secretion as well as in EV-associated stemness-promoting function. CD81 is coexpressed along with CD44 in human circulating tumor cells (CTCs) and enriched in clustered CTCs that promote cancer stemness and metastasis, supporting the clinical significance of CD81 in association with patient outcomes. Our study highlights machine learning as a powerful tool in facilitating the molecular understanding of new molecular targets in regulating stemness and metastasis of TNBC.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Dynamically downscaled seasonal heat wave projections in the CONUS

Heat waves are a well-documented hazard that are projected to increase in intensity, duration, and frequency with climate change. Regions of the US experience widely varying temperatures; for example, 35 °C is extremely hot for spring in the Northeast but not for summer in the Southeast. It is important to evaluate projections within a regional context and at a high enough resolution to understand the risks to populations. We identify heat waves across the Conterminous US (CONUS) under SSP5–8.5 from 2020 to 2059 with an ensemble of dynamically downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) model outputs. We demonstrate that there are regional differences caused by seasonal and local drivers of persistent hot temperatures. Summer heat waves are increasing in intensity and duration faster than winter heat waves because of the atmospheric conditions that promote these events. Our analysis emphasizes the value of fine-resolution modeling for projecting future climate risks.

Rubin, Hannah [University of Tennessee, Knoxville ↗

DOE OSTI2022

Development and Demonstration of a Fuel-Efficient, Class 8 Tractor & Trailer Engine System (SuperTruck II)

Navistar presents the SuperTruck II (ST II) Final Report to the Unites States Department of Energy (US DOE), which covers the five Budget Periods (BPs) from 10-1-2016 through 6-30-2022. For ST II, Navistar built on the achievements of the SuperTruck I (ST I) Program as a catalyst to continue critical research, design and development, testing, and operations to reach the ambitious goals of the ST II project. This approach allowed Navistar to continue contributing to the essential needs of our nation for safe, efficient, and cost-effective delivery of goods and services, as we reduced negative environmental effects and improved operational productivity. This document contains information specified in DOE F 4600.2, Final Scientific/Technical Report DOE F 241.3, B. SCIENTIFIC/TECHNICAL REPORTS, explaining how we met and exceeded program requirements. Throughout this Final Report, Navistar extracted information from documents prepared during the project that represent our management, design and development, building, and testing efforts to meet and exceed SuperTruck II project goals. Navistar followed Plan requirements to achieve / exceed Project Objectives: a) >100% improvement in vehicle freight efficiency (FE) (on ton-MPG basis) relative to 2009 baseline with stretch goal of 140% improvement [actual: 170%); b) >55% engine brake thermal efficiency (BTE) demonstrated in operational engine at a 65-mph cruise point on a dynamometer – ≥31% increase from 2009 baseline [actual: 55.20% of combined BTE) ; and c) development and implementation of commercially cost effective technologies (in terms of a simple payback). Technology selection / development path focused on developing technologies applicable for production within 3-year approach, while ensuring technology readiness and cost of ownership for end users. The Program was organized into five budget periods: Requirements / Technology Assessment and Initial Hardware Testing; Technology Development and Concept Readiness Demonstration; Technology Finalization and Validation Tractor / Trailer Fabrication, Integration and Commissioning Demonstration; and Fuel Economy (FE) and Brake Thermal Efficiency (BTE) and Program Completion. Leadership was provided by DOE, with tasks performed by laboratories (Argonne National Laboratory, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory); partners at Bosch, TPI, Dana, and J.B. Hunt; , and support from University of Michigan and Clemson University. Navistar lead this team with Principal Investigator / Contracting Officer; Project Manager (PM); Vehicle, Engine, and Aftertreatment Engineers; Finance Manager, Technical Program Leads, and Legal/IP; and other key personnel. Work also included personnel in risk management; funding / budget / finance. Work involved analysis, development, testing, and down selection of individual/system engine, aftertreatment, and vehicle technologies, with integration of selected technologies into a prototype vehicle for demonstration of fuel-efficiency gain. Work also included component/integrated system level development of truck and trailer aerodynamics, base engine efficiency, advanced aftertreatment, combustion efficiency, waste heat recovery, hybrid powertrain, reduced rolling resistance, weight reduction, idle reduction, and driver feedback. As ST II progressed, Navistar performed computer-based modeling / simulations of technologies focused on the primary operational areas: Engine, Aftertreatment, and Vehicle. During the ST II Program, the COVID Virus outbreak unexpectedly challenged by the effects of, which affected staffing, scheduling, design, supplies, availability of materials, production procedures, and testing. The DOE responded by extending the program by three quarters to ensure that project tasks were completed for this vital project. Focus continued on analyzing, developing, testing, and down selecting individual-/system-level engine and vehicle technologies for integration of the final selected technologies into a prototype vehicle that would demonstrate fuel-efficiency gains made possible through these technologies. This included component/integrated system-level development of truck and trailer aerodynamics, base engine efficiency, advanced aftertreatment, combustion efficiency, waste heat recovery, solar power, distributed and intelligent vehicle power, hybrid powertrain, reduced rolling resistance, weight reduction, idle reduction, and driver feedback. Throughout the program, function, reliability, and performance at all levels were ensured through testing. Proof of this approach was demonstrated in multiple, on-road demonstrations: Scenario A (Flatland) Fuel Economy, Scenario B (Hilly) Fuel Economy, and City Cycle Tests. Other benefits derived from ST II included new/improved products, publications, patents, and next-step capabilities related to electric/hydrogen vehicles and autonomous driving.

Zukouski, Russ↗

DOE OSTI2024

Coupled model intercomparison project phase 6 (CMIP6) high resolution model intercomparison project (HighResMIP) bias in extreme rainfall drives underestimation of amazonian precipitation

Abstract Extreme rainfall events drive the amount and spatial distribution of rainfall in the Amazon and are a key driver of forest dynamics across the basin. This study investigates how the 3-hourly predictions in the High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP, a component of the recent Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, CMIP6) represent extreme rainfall events at annual, seasonal, and sub-daily time scales. TRMM 3B42 (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) 3 h data were used as observations. Our results showed that eleven out of seventeen HighResMIP models showed the observed association between rainfall and number of extreme events at the annual and seasonal scales. Two models captured the spatial pattern of number of extreme events at the seasonal and annual scales better (higher correlation) than the other models. None of the models captured the sub-daily timing of extreme rainfall, though some reproduced daily totals. Our results suggest that higher model resolution is a crucial factor for capturing extreme rainfall events in the Amazon, but it might not be the sole factor. Improving the representation of Amazon extreme rainfall events in HighResMIP models can help reduce model rainfall biases and uncertainties and enable more reliable assessments of the water cycle and forest dynamics in the Amazon.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Process‐Model Perspective on Recent Changes in the Carbon Cycle of North America

Continental North America has been found to be a carbon (C) sink over recent decades by multiple studies employing a variety of estimation approaches. However, several key questions and uncertainties remain with these assessments. Here we used results from an ensemble of 19 state-of-the-art dynamic global vegetation models from the TRENDYv9 project to improve these estimates and study the drivers of its interannual variability. Our results show that North America has been a C sink with a magnitude of 0.37 ± 0.38 (mean and one standard deviation) PgC year —1 for the period 2000–2019 (0.31 and 0.44 PgC year —1 in each decade); split into 0.18 ± 0.12 PgC year —1 in Canada (0.15 and 0.20), 0.16 ± 0.17 in the United States (0.14 and 0.17), 0.02 ± 0.05 PgC year —1 in Mexico (0.02 and 0.02) and 0.01 ± 0.02 in Central America and the Caribbean (0.01 and 0.01). About 57% of the new C assimilated by terrestrial ecosystems is allocated into vegetation, 30% into soils, and 13% into litter. Losses of C due to fire account for 41% of the interannual variability of the mean net biome productivity for all North America in the model ensemble. Finally, we show that drought years (e.g., 2002) have the potential to shift the region to a small net C source in the simulations (—0.02 ± 0.46 PgC year —1 ). Our results highlight the importance of identifying the major drivers of the interannual variability of the continental-scale land C cycle along with the spatial distribution of local sink-source dynamics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Discerning the thermodynamic feasibility of the spontaneous coexistence of multiple functional vegetation groups

Can the Second Law of Thermodynamics explain why ecosystems naturally organize into a complex structure composed of multiple vegetation species and functional groups? Ecosystem structure, which refers to the number and type of plant functional groups, is the result of self-organization, or the spontaneous emergence of order from random fluctuations. By considering ecosystems as open thermodynamic systems, we model and study these fluctuations of throughput signatures on short timescales to determine the drivers and characteristics of ecosystem structure. This diagnostic approach allows us to use fluxes of energy and entropy to calculate an ecosystem’s estimated work and understand the thermodynamic behavior of the system. We use a multi-layer canopy-root-soil model to calculate the energy and entropy fluxes of different scenarios for field sites across various climates. At each site, scenarios comprised of native individual plant functional groups and a coexisting multi-group composition scenario including all functional groups observed at the site are compared. Ecosystem-scale calculations demonstrate that entropy fluxes and work efficiency—the work performed for the amount of radiation entering the ecosystem—are greatest in the multi-group scenario when its leaf area is significantly larger than each of its individual functional groups. Thus, we conclude that ecosystems self-organize towards the vegetation structure with the greatest outgoing entropy flux and work efficiency, resulting in the coexistence of multiple functional groups and performing the maximum amount of work within the constraints of locally available energy, water, and nutrients.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Gauge R & R studies for angular measurements

Angular measurements lie on the circumference of a circle and have different characteristics than standard scalar measurements. For applications involving angular data, treating the measured values as scalars can lead to misinterpretation of results if its wrap-around nature is not taken into account. In this article, we propose a variance components wrapped normal model for angular measurements that is analogous to the standard normal model for continuous measurements. This model allows decomposition of contributions to the overall variance to be separated and compared to understand the drivers of the spread of the data. In this work, we analyze gauge R & R study data using Bayesian methods and illustrate the use of this wrapped normal model with simulated and real data. We also performed a small simulation study in considering the design of gauge R & R studies with angular measurements.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Decomposing a Compound Flood Event in an Urban Pacific Northwest Estuary: Primary Drivers and Projections for the Future

The Duwamish River Estuary (DRE) of Washington is prone to compound flooding during atmospheric river (AR) events. The processes contributing to such flooding (coastal and fluvial) have remained opaque to municipalities that are increasingly impacted. Here, we conduct a suite of coupled atmosphere-hydrology-ocean model simulations with varying forcing combinations (tide, surge, and/or river discharge) to identify the primary drivers of compound flooding during a recent AR event. We also test year 2,100 climate forcing to project how flooding and drivers may change in the future for the same event. We identify a clear distinction between dynamics in the downstream, engineered portion of the DRE compared to the upstream, “natural” river. Downstream, tides dominate water levels but contributions from storm surge and nonlinear tide-surge interaction elevate tide-only high waters from no flooding to major flooding. Upstream, total water levels during the event are ∼6 cm higher than downstream due to an increasing influence of river discharge over surge and tides. Notably, nonlinear surge-river and tide-river interactions act to reduce upstream water levels up to 50% compared to estimates which linearly sum tides, surge, and river, likely reducing flood vulnerability. Under two future climate scenarios: one with only sea level rise (SLR) and another with SLR plus atmospheric warming, we find little change in mechanism contributions to water levels. Expanded flooding in both cases is largely due to SLR, as a ∼50% increase to river discharge under the warming scenario has no impact downstream and marginally increases (∼3 cm) water level upstream.

atmospheric river↗