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At least 307 records · Page 17

The Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) Instrument for the MAVEN Mission

The Mars Atmosphere and Volatile Evolution Mission (MAVEN) will explore the variability in the planet's upper atmosphere and ionosphere that is dominated by interactions with the sun, specifically the high-energy photons in the soft X-ray and extreme ultraviolet wavelengths as well as interactions with the solar wind. Scientists will use MAVEN data to determine the current loss rate of volatile compounds from the Mars atmosphere, then extrapolate back in time in order to give historical estimations of state of the Mars atmosphere and climate, its ability to sustain liquid water, and the potential for the Martian habitability. The EUV instrument is critical in measuring the Space Weather driver of this atmospheric variability. It will directly observe a three EUV wavelength ranges and their variability due to solar flares (time scales of seconds to hours) as well as active region evolution (months), which will then act as proxies for a model to determine the entire 0.1-200 nm solar spectrum at all times during the MAVEN mission. These EUV measurements and models results will compliment the other instruments that will provide direct in-situ as well as remote sensing observations of the Martian atmospheric response to this solar driver. This presentation will be an introduction of this instrument and its science measurements and goals to the larger community, as well as a status report on its progress.

Chamberlin, Phillip C.↗

Idaho Wildfires II: Assessing the Relationship Between Drought Indicators and Wildfire Risk to Enhance Hazard Modeling and Inform Mitigation Planning

The western United States has experienced twenty years of increased and prolonged drought which have exacerbated wildfire hazards. These jeopardize population centers through increased risks to ecosystem services, local economies, and livelihoods. The Idaho Office of Emergency Management, Water Resources, and Department of Lands are seeking methods to dynamically monitor these conditions and update models that inform hazard mitigation planning and resource allocation. Towards this, these agencies partnered with NASA DEVELOP to produce drought-enhanced wildfire hazard models. Part of a two-term project, the two teams revised the state’s static wildfire hazard model with refined data layers and remotely-sensed data to reflect dynamic ecosystem responses to drought conditions and wildfire potential. Our team distinguished between rangeland and forestland ecosystems, and investigated relationships between drought metrics and vegetation condition using TerrSet Earth Trends Modeler. This analysis determined that total precipitation at a 5-month lag interval (r 2 = 0.72) along with the Evaporative Stress Index (r 2 = 0.69); and precipitation at a 5-month interval (r 2 = 0.42) were important drivers in rangeland and forestland, respectively. These driver variables were incorporated into a temporally dynamic wildfire hazard map. Our team used linear regression to correlate hazard ratings with wildfire frequency. For the year 2020, neither the enhanced hazard model (p < 0.10, r 2 = 0.01) nor the state’s static model (p < 0.05, r 2 = 0.03) were strongly correlated with actual wildfire frequency as they expressed an inverse relationship between wildfire hazard and frequency. This suggests wildfire occurrence is complex and not necessarily driven by the variables used.

Wildfire↗

Outer planet probe cost estimates: First impressions

An examination was made of early estimates of outer planetary atmospheric probe cost by comparing the estimates with past planetary projects. Of particular interest is identification of project elements which are likely cost drivers for future probe missions. Data are divided into two parts: first, the description of a cost model developed by SAI for the Planetary Programs Office of NASA, and second, use of this model and its data base to evaluate estimates of probe costs. Several observations are offered in conclusion regarding the credibility of current estimates and specific areas of the outer planet probe concept most vulnerable to cost escalation.

Niehoff, J.↗

Driver gas flow with fluctuations

A shock tube's driver gas can apparently provide flow with turbulent bursts. The fluctuations are interpreted using a boundary layer model of contact surface flow and results form a kinetic theory of turbulence. With this, a lower limit of 4 on the ratio of maximum to minimum turbulent intensities in contact surface instabilities has been estimated.

Johnson, J. A., III↗

Orbital transfer vehicle concept definition and system analysis study. Volume 1A: Executive summary. Phase 2

The objectives of the Phase 2 study were to improve the orbit transfer vehicle (OTV) concept definition by focusing on the following issues: the impact of mission requirements on OTV system design; OTV basing concepts on the Space Shuttle, separate platforms, and/or remote locations; cost reduction of an OTV program to improve its economic benefits and support its acquisition. The OTV mission scenario includes a wide range of missions the main drivers of which are manned GEO servicing, mid-inclination/polar DOD, and lunar/planetary projects. A mission model is presented which includes the type and number of missions per year and the estimated propellant requirements. To accomplish the missions, many OTV concepts were defined including ground-based OTVs launched either in the STS orbiter, the aft cargo carrier, or a heavy lift launch vehicle, and a space-based OTV. System and program trade studies were conducted using performance, cost, safety/risk, and operations/growth criteria. The study shows that mission requirements and substantial economic benefits justify a reusable, cryogenic (H2/O2) space-based OTV. Such a system would not be subjected to Earth-to-orbit launch loads and would not be constained in size or weight. Safety is enhanced by the fact that the system components are launched unfueled. Its inherent reusability and ability to be refueled in space make the space-based OTV very economical to operate.

Ketchum, W. J.↗

Direct numerical simulation of turbulent flow over a backward-facing step

The objectives of this study are as follows: (1) to conduct a direct numerical simulation of turbulent backward facing step flow using inflow and outflow conditions; and (2) to provide data in the form of Reynolds stress budgets for Reynolds averaged modeling. The report presents the basic statistical data and comparisons with the concurrent experiments of Jovic and Driver and budgets of turbulent kinetic energy.

Le, Hung↗

Distributed Aviation Concepts and Technologies

Aviation has experienced one hundred years of evolution, resulting in the current air transportation system dominated by commercial airliners in a hub and spoke infrastructure. While the first fifty years involved disruptive technologies that required frequent vehicle adaptation, the second fifty years produced a stable evolutionary optimization of decreasing costs with increasing safety. This optimization has resulted in traits favoring a centralized service model with high vehicle productivity and cost efficiency. However, it may also have resulted in a system that is not sufficiently robust to withstand significant system disturbances. Aviation is currently facing rapid change from issues such as environmental damage, terrorism threat, congestion and capacity limitations, and cost of energy. Currently, these issues are leading to a loss of service for weaker spoke markets. These catalysts and a lack of robustness could result in a loss of service for much larger portions of the aviation market. The impact of other competing transportation services may be equally important as casual factors of change. Highway system forecasts indicate a dramatic slow down as congestion reaches a point of non-linearly increasing delay. In the next twenty-five years, there is the potential for aviation to transform itself into a more robust, scalable, adaptive, secure, safe, affordable, convenient, efficient and environmentally friendly system. To achieve these characteristics, the new system will likely be based on a distributed model that enables more direct services. Short range travel is already demonstrating itself to be inefficient with a centralized model, providing opportunities for emergent distributed services through air-taxi models. Technologies from the on-demand revolution in computers and communications are now available as major drivers for aviation on-demand adaptation. Other technologies such as electric propulsion are currently transforming the automobile industry, and will also significantly alter the functionality of future distributed aviation concepts. Many hurdles exist, including technology, regulation, and perception. Aviation has an inherent governmental role not present in other recent on-demand transformations, which may pose a risk of curtailing aviation democratization .

Moore, Mark D.↗

Integrating Human Factors into Crew Exploration Vehicle Design

With NASA's new Vision for Exploration to send humans beyond Earth orbit, it is critical to consider the human as a system that demands early and continuous user involvement, and an iterative prototype/test/redesign process. Addressing human-system interface issues early on can be very cost effective even cost reducing when performed early in the design and development cycle. To achieve this goal within Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV) Project Office, human engineering (HE) team is formed. Key tasks are to apply HE requirements and guidelines to hardware/software, and provide HE design, analysis and evaluation of crew interfaces. Initial activities included many practice-orientated evaluations using low-fidelity CEV mock-ups. What follows is a description of such evaluations that focused on a HE requirement regarding Net Habitable Volume (NHV). NHV is defined as the total remaining pressurized volume available to on-orbit crew after accounting for the loss of volume due to deployed hardware and structural inefficiencies which decrease functional volume. The goal of the NHV evaluations was to develop requirements providing sufficient CEV NHV for crewmembers to live and perform tasks in support of mission goals. Efforts included development of a standard NHV calculation method using computer models and physical mockups, and crew/ stakeholder evaluations. Nine stakeholders and ten crewmembers participated in the unsuited evaluations. Six crewmembers also participated in a suited evaluation. The mock-up was outfitted with volumetric representation of sub-systems such as seats, and stowage bags. Thirteen scenarios were developed to represent mission/crew tasks and considered to be primary volume drivers (e.g., suit donning) for the CEV. Unsuited evaluations included a structured walkthrough of these tasks. Suited evaluations included timed donning of the existing launch and entry suit to simulate a contingency scenario followed by doffing/ stowing of the suits. All mockup evaluations were videotaped. Structured questionnaires were used to document user interface issues and volume impacts of layout configuration. Computer model and physical measures of the NHV agreed within 1 percent. This included measurement of the gross habitable volume, subtraction of intrusive volumes, and other non-habitable spaces. Calculation method developed was validated as a standard means of measuring NHV, and was recommended as a verification method for the NHV requirements. Evaluations confirmed that there was adequate volume for unsuited scenarios and suit donning/ doffing activity. Seats, suit design stowage and waste hygiene system noted to be critical volume drivers. The low-fidelity mock-up evaluations along with human modeling analysis generated discussions that will lead to high-level systems requirements and human-centered design decisions. This approach allowed HE requirements and operational concepts to evolve in parallel with engineering system concepts and design requirements. As the CEV design matures, these evaluations will continue and help with design decisions, and assessment, verification and validation of HE requirements.

Whitmore, Mihriban↗

Forecasting Global Fire Emissions on Subseasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Time Scales

Fire emissions of gases and aerosols alter atmospheric composition and have substantial impacts on climate, ecosystem function, and human health. Warming climate and human expansion in fire‐prone landscapes exacerbate fire impacts and call for more effective management tools. Here we developed a global fire forecasting system that predicts monthly emissions using past fire data and climate variables for lead times of 1 to 6 months. Using monthly fire emissions from the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED) as the prediction target, we fit a statistical time series model, the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model with eXogenous variables (ARIMAX), in over 1,300 different fire regions. Optimized parameters were then used to forecast future emissions. The forecast system took into account information about region‐specific seasonality, long‐term trends, recent fire observations, and climate drivers representing both large‐scale climate variability and local fire weather. We cross‐validated the forecast skill of the system with different combinations of predictors and forecast lead times. The reference model, which combined endogenous and exogenous predictors with a 1 month forecast lead time, explained 52% of the variability in the global fire emissions anomaly, considerably exceeding the performance of a reference model that assumed persistent emissions during the forecast period. The system also successfully resolved detailed spatial patterns of fire emissions anomalies in regions with significant fire activity. This study bridges the gap between the efforts of near‐real‐time fire forecasts and seasonal fire outlooks and represents a step toward establishing an operational global fire, smoke, and carbon cycle forecasting system.

vapor pressure↗

Improved Constraints on Global Methane Emissions and Sinks Using δ13C-CH4

We study the drivers behind the global atmospheric methane (CH4) increase observed after 2006. Candidate emission and sink scenarios are constructed based on proposed hypotheses in the literature. These scenarios are simulated in the TM5 tracer transport model for 1984–2016 to produce three-dimensional fields of CH4 and δ13C-CH4, which are compared with observations to test the competing hypotheses in the literature in one common model framework. We find that the fossil fuel (FF) CH4 emission trend from the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research 4.3.2 inventory does not agree with observed δ13C-CH4. Increased FF CH4 emissions are unlikely to be the dominant driver for the post-2006 global CH4 increase despite the possibility for a small FF emission increase. We also find that a significant decrease in the abundance of hydroxyl radicals (OH) cannot explain the post-2006 global CH4 increase since it does not track the observed decrease in global mean δ13C-CH4. Different CH4 sinks have different fractionation factors for δ13C-CH4, thus we can investigate the uncertainty introduced by the reaction of CH4 with tropospheric chlorine (Cl), a CH4 sink whose abundance, spatial distribution, and temporal changes remain uncertain. Our results show that including or excluding tropospheric Cl as a 13 Tg/year CH4 sink in our model changes the magnitude of estimated fossil emissions by ∼20%. We also found that by using different wetland emissions based on a static versus a dynamic wetland area map, the partitioning between FF and microbial sources differs by 20 Tg/year, ∼12% of estimated fossil emissions.

X. Lan↗

NOS3: NASA Operational Simulator for Small Satellites

The NASA Operational Simulator for Small Satellites (NOS3) is a suite of open-source software tools to aid in areas such as software development, integration & test (I&T), mission operations/training, verification and validation (V&V), and software systems check-out. NOS3 provides a software development environment, a multi-target build system, operational interface/ground software, dynamics and environment simulations, and software-based hardware models. NOS3 has just recently been open-sourced by NASA and is available for immediate use. It enables the development of flight software (FSW) early in the project life cycle when hardware availability is limited. Small satellite development suffers from extensive lead times on many of the commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) components as well as limited funding for engineering test units (ETUs). To alleviate the need to provide a hardware test-bed for each developer/tester, NOS3 hardware models are based upon characteristic data or manufacturer's data sheets for each individual component. The NOS3 hardware models' fidelity is such that FSW executes unaware that physical hardware is not present. This allows FSW binaries to be compiled for both the simulation environment and the flight computer without changing the FSW source code. For hardware models that provide data which is dependent upon the environment and spacecraft dynamics, such as a GPS receiver or magnetometer, an open-source tool from NASA GSFC (42 Spacecraft Simulator) is used to provide the necessary data. The underlying infrastructure used to transfer messages between FSW and the hardware models can also be used to monitor, intercept, and inject messages, which has proven to be beneficial for V&V of larger missions such as James Webb Space Telescope (JWST). As hardware is selected and becomes available, drivers can be added to the NOS3 environment to enable hardware-in-the-loop (HWIL) testing. When strict time synchronization is not vital, any number of combinations of hardware components and software-based models can be tested. NOS3 was actively used for FSW development and component testing of the Simulation-to-Flight 1 (STF-1) CubeSat and the Lunar IceCube CubeSat. As NOS3 matures, hardware models have been added for common small satellite components such as GPS receivers, electrical power systems and batteries, and antenna systems.

Suder, Mark↗

FBI fingerprint identification automation study: AIDS 3 evaluation report. Volume 6: Environmental analysis

The results of the analysis of the external environment of the FBI Fingerprint Identification Division are presented. Possible trends in the future environment of the Division that may have an effect on the work load were projected to determine if future work load will lie within the capability range of the proposed new system, AIDS 3. Two working models of the environment were developed, the internal and external model, and from these scenarios the projection of possible future work load volume and mixture was developed. Possible drivers of work load change were identified and assessed for upper and lower bounds of effects. Data used for the study were derived from historical information, analysis of the current situation and from interviews with various agencies who are users of or stakeholders in the present system.

Mulhall, B. D. L.↗

Scalable Implementation of Finite Elements by NASA _ Implicit (ScIFEi)

Scalable Implementation of Finite Elements by NASA (ScIFEN) is a parallel finite element analysis code written in C++. ScIFEN is designed to provide scalable solutions to computational mechanics problems. It supports a variety of finite element types, nonlinear material models, and boundary conditions. This report provides an overview of ScIFEi (\Sci-Fi"), the implicit solid mechanics driver within ScIFEN. A description of ScIFEi's capabilities is provided, including an overview of the tools and features that accompany the software as well as a description of the input and output le formats. Results from several problems are included, demonstrating the efficiency and scalability of ScIFEi by comparing to finite element analysis using a commercial code.

Warner, James E.↗

Lower-Stratospheric Tracer Trends and Variability from Reanalyses

Previous studies have robustly identified a decrease since 1998 in lower stratospheric ozone in the Northern Hemisphere (NH). While this ozone decrease is qualitatively explained as resulting from changes in the large-scale circulation, there is not yet a quantitative mechanistic explanation of these changes. Here we explore the drivers of recent ozone changes using two different configurations of the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) general circulation model. The first configuration of GEOS includes a full chemistry module and is constrained with meteorological fields from the MERRA-2 reanalysis. This configuration (M2GMI) is used to analyze an idealized tracer that covaries closely with ozone on interannual and decadal timescales, revealing that recent ozone decreases in the NH subtropics are associated with a poleward expansion of upwelling in the NH LS, with reduced (enhanced) downwelling over northern subtropics (midlatitudes). The second configuration of GEOS is a free-running version of the GEOS Chemistry-Climate Model (CCM) that is used to perform a ten-member ensemble of free-running simulations. Comparisons of the two configurations reveal that, while the free-running model can produce negative ozone changes in the NH LS, the magnitude of these changes is significantly weaker, relative to both M2GMI and MERRA-2; moreover, these weaker ozone decreases are consistent with weaker simulated changes in the residual circulation. Finally, we examine the GEOS model results in the broader context of the hindcast simulations performed as part of Phase 1 of the Chemistry Climate Modeling Initiative. We show that the majority of the free-running simulations considered here also exhibit weaker long-term residual circulation changes, compared to reanalyses.

Wargan, Kris↗

Mechanisms Linked to Recent Ozone Decreases in the Northern Hemisphere Lower Stratosphere

Previous studies have robustly identified a decrease since 1998 in lower stratospheric (LS) ozone in the Northern Hemisphere (NH). While this ozone decrease is qualitatively explained as resulting from changes in the large‐scale circulation, there is not yet a quantitative mechanistic explanation of these changes. Here we explore the drivers of recent ozone changes using two different configurations of the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) general circulation model. The first configuration of GEOS includes a full chemistry module and is constrained with meteorological fields from the Modern‐Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA‐2). This configuration (M2GMI) is used to analyze an idealized tracer that covaries closely with ozone on interannual and decadal timescales, revealing that recent ozone decreases in the NH subtropics are associated with a poleward expansion of upwelling in the NH LS, with reduced (enhanced) downwelling over northern subtropics (midlatitudes). The second configuration of GEOS is a free‐running version of the GEOS Chemistry‐Climate Model (CCM) that is used to perform a ten‐member ensemble of free‐running simulations. Comparisons of the two configurations reveal that, while the free‐running model can produce negative ozone changes in the NH LS, the magnitude of these changes is significantly weaker, relative to both M2GMI and MERRA‐2; moreover, these weaker ozone decreases are consistent with weaker simulated changes in the residual circulation. Finally, we examine the GEOS model results in the broader context of the hindcast simulations performed as part of Phase 1 of the Chemistry Climate Modeling Initiative. We show that the majority of the free‐running simulations considered here also exhibit weaker long‐term residual circulation changes, compared to reanalyses.

Ozone↗

A Risk-Based Approach for Aerothermal/TPS Analysis and Testing

The current status of aerothermal and thermal protection system modeling for civilian entry missions is reviewed. For most such missions, the accuracy of our simulations is limited not by the tools and processes currently employed, but rather by reducible deficiencies in the underlying physical models. Improving the accuracy of and reducing the uncertainties in these models will enable a greater understanding of the system level impacts of a particular thermal protection system and of the system operation and risk over the operational life of the system. A strategic plan will be laid out by which key modeling deficiencies can be identified via mission-specific gap analysis. Once these gaps have been identified, the driving component uncertainties are determined via sensitivity analyses. A Monte-Carlo based methodology is presented for physics-based probabilistic uncertainty analysis of aerothermodynamics and thermal protection system material response modeling. These data are then used to advocate for and plan focused testing aimed at reducing key uncertainties. The results of these tests are used to validate or modify existing physical models. Concurrently, a testing methodology is outlined for thermal protection materials. The proposed approach is based on using the results of uncertainty/sensitivity analyses discussed above to tailor ground testing so as to best identify and quantify system performance and risk drivers. A key component of this testing is understanding the relationship between the test and flight environments. No existing ground test facility can simultaneously replicate all aspects of the flight environment, and therefore good models for traceability to flight are critical to ensure a low risk, high reliability thermal protection system design. Finally, the role of flight testing in the overall thermal protection system development strategy is discussed.

Wright, Michael J.↗

The NASA JSC Hypervelocity Impact Technology (HVIT) Office

- HVIT’s operational objectives for NASA, commercial, and international partners are to 1) help to define MMOD risk requirements 2) provide assessments that identify risk drivers for a specific spacecraft design, and 3) work to design and optimize shielding technologies based on increasing performance and reducing mass. - The use of Bumper-code underpins all risk assessments provided by HVIT – by using a complete FEM model, Bumper can provide a wholistic view of risk for a given design and mission profile. - A full risk assessment, however, requires an iterative approach, where Bumper is first used to identify potential risk drivers. Subsequent analysis can focus on iterating the shield design in highest risk areas. And may include the refinement of BLEs through testing, design modification, or reexamination of the failure criteria. - HVIT utilizes a wide-range of expertise to provide the most accurate risk assessments possible – areas of active research are highlighted below.

hypervelocity impact↗

Towards Prognostics of Electrolytic Capacitors

A remaining useful life prediction algorithm and degradation model for electrolytic capacitors is presented. Electrolytic capacitors are used in several applications ranging from power supplies on critical avionics equipment to power drivers for electro-mechanical actuators. These devices are known for their low reliability and given their criticality in electronics subsystems they are a good candidate for component level prognostics and health management research. Prognostics provides a way to assess remaining useful life of a capacitor based on its current state of health and its anticipated future usage and operational conditions. In particular, experimental results of an accelerated aging test under electrical stresses are presented. The capacitors used in this test form the basis for a remaining life prediction algorithm where a model of the degradation process is suggested. This preliminary remaining life prediction algorithm serves as a demonstration of how prognostics methodologies could be used for electrolytic capacitors.

Celaya, Jose R.↗