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At least 307 records · Page 17

Simulation-based inference for parameter estimation of complex watershed simulators

High-resolution, spatially distributed process-based (PB) simulators are widely employed in the study of complex catchment processes and their responses to a changing climate. However, calibrating these PB simulators using observed data remains a significant challenge due to several persistent issues, including the following: (1) intractability stemming from the computational demands and complex responses of simulators, which renders infeasible calculation of the conditional probability of parameters and data, and (2) uncertainty stemming from the choice of simplified representations of complex natural hydrologic processes. Here, we demonstrate how simulation-based inference (SBI) can help address both of these challenges with respect to parameter estimation. SBI uses a learned mapping between the parameter space and observed data to estimate parameters for the generation of calibrated simulations. To demonstrate the potential of SBI in hydrologic modeling, we conduct a set of synthetic experiments to infer two common physical parameters – Manning's coefficient and hydraulic conductivity – using a representation of a snowmelt-dominated catchment in Colorado, USA. We introduce novel deep-learning (DL) components to the SBI approach, including an “emulator” as a surrogate for the PB simulator to rapidly explore parameter responses. We also employ a density-based neural network to represent the joint probability of parameters and data without strong assumptions about its functional form. While addressing intractability, we also show that, if the simulator does not represent the system under study well enough, SBI can yield unreliable parameter estimates. Approaches to adopting the SBI framework for cases in which multiple simulator(s) may be adequate are introduced using a performance-weighting approach. The synthetic experiments presented here test the performance of SBI, using the relationship between the surrogate and PB simulators as a proxy for the real case.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Engaging with Utilities and Key Stakeholders [Slides]

The Energy to Communities (E2C) peer-learning cohort program provides technical assistance to groups of 15 community entities around a common energy topic over the course of 6 months. Every month, participants join a virtual meeting where they hear from experts and exchange strategies and best practices with their peers. This cohort, "Successful Energy Project Implementation" will explore common challenges in implementing energy projects and learn strategies to turn project plans into reality. Each participant will focus on a local energy project or priority as a cornerstone for their learning throughout the series. This presentation overviews the interconnection process for distributed energy resources and how to engage well with utilities. The workshop will be held on March 25, 2026.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

A Resilient Condition Assessment Monitoring System

An architecture and supporting methods are presented for the implementation of a resilient condition assessment monitoring system that can adaptively accommodate both cyber and physical anomalies to a monitored system under observation. In particular, the architecture includes three layers: information, assessment, and sensor selection. The information layer estimates probability distributions of process variables based on sensor measurements and assessments of the quality of sensor data. Based on these estimates, the assessment layer then employs probabilistic reasoning methods to assess the plant health. The sensor selection layer selects sensors so that assessments of the plant condition can be made within desired time periods. Resilient features of the developed system are then illustrated by simulations of a simplified power plant model, where a large portion of the sensors are under attack.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Preparing Los Alamos National Laboratory's Waste Management Program for the Future - 12175

The waste management program at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) is undergoing significant transition to establish a lean highly functioning waste management program that will succeed the large environmental cleanup waste management program. In the coming years, the environmental cleanup activities will be mostly completed and the effort will change to long-term stewardship. What will remain in waste management is a smaller program focused on direct off-site shipping to cost-effectively enable the enduring mission of the laboratory in support of the national nuclear weapons program and fundamental science and research. It is essential that LANL implement a highly functioning efficient waste management program in support of the core missions of the national weapons program and fundamental science and research - and LANL is well on the way to that goal. As LANL continues the transition process, the following concepts have been validated: - Business drivers including the loss of onsite disposal access and completion of major environmental cleanup activities will drive large changes in waste management strategies and program. - A well conceived organizational structure; formal management systems; a customer service attitude; and enthusiastic managers are core to a successful waste management program. - During times of organizational transition, a project management approach to managing change in a complex work place with numerous complex deliverables is successful strategy. - Early and effective engagement with waste generators, especially Project Managers, is critical to successful waste planning. - A well-trained flexible waste management work force is vital. Training plans should include continuous training as a strategy. - A shared fate approach to managing institutional waste decisions, such as the LANL Waste Management Recharge Board is effective. - An efficient WM program benefits greatly from modern technology and innovation in managing waste data and reports. - Use of six-sigma tools can help improve the quality and efficiency of waste management processes. - A fair, easy to understand, transparent, and well-overseen process for distributing the cost of waste disposal and waste program oversight is essential. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

In-situ and self-distributed: A new understanding on catalyzed thermal decomposition process of ammonium perchlorate over Nd{sub 2}O{sub 3}

Catalyzed thermal decomposition process of ammonium perchlorate (AP) over neodymium oxide (Nd{sub 2}O{sub 3}) was investigated. Catalytic performances of nanometer-sized Nd{sub 2}O{sub 3} and micrometer-sized Nd{sub 2}O{sub 3} were evaluated by differential scanning calorimetry (DSC). In contrast to universal concepts, catalysts in different sizes have nearly similar catalytic activities. Based on structural and morphological variation of the catalysts during the reaction, combined with mass spectrum analyses and studies of unmixed style, a new understanding of this catalytic process was proposed. We believed that the newly formed chloride neodymium oxide (NdOCl) was the real catalytic species in the overall thermal decomposition of AP over Nd{sub 2}O{sub 3}. Meanwhile, it was the “self-distributed” procedure which occurred within the reaction that also worked for the improvement of overall catalytic activities. This work is of great value in understanding the roles of micrometer-sized catalysts used in heterogeneous reactions, especially the solid–solid reactions which could generate a large quantity of gaseous species. - Graphical abstract: In-situ and self-distributed reaction process in thermal decomposition of AP catalyzed by Nd{sub 2}O{sub 3}. - Highlights: • Micro- and nano-Nd{sub 2}O{sub 3} for catalytic thermal decomposition of AP. • No essential differences on their catalytic performances. • Structural and morphological variation of catalysts digs out catalytic mechanism. • This catalytic process is “in-situ and self-distributed” one.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

A Prototyping Environment for Research on Human-Machine Interfaces in Process Control: Use of Microsoft WPF for Microworld and Distributed Control System Development

Operators of critical processes, such as nuclear power production, must contend with highly complex systems, procedures, and regulations. Developing human-machine interfaces (HMIs) that better support operators is a high priority for ensuring the safe and reliable operation of critical processes. Human factors engineering (HFE) provides a rich and mature set of tools for evaluating the performance of HMIs, but the set of tools for developing and designing HMIs is still in its infancy. Here we propose that Microsoft Windows Presentation Foundation (WPF) is well suited for many roles in the research and development of HMIs for process control.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Global Sensitivity Analysis of Large Distribution System with PVs using Deep Gaussian Process

Global sensitivity analysis (GSA) of the voltage to uncertain power injection variations plays an important role for appropriate Volt-VAR optimization. This paper proposes a data-driven GSA method for large-scale distribution systems with a large number of uncertain sources. Specifically, the deep Gaussian process is used to identify the mapping relationship between uncertain power injections and voltages. This allows us to resort to the analysis of variance framework to calculate the Sobol indices for GSA. Unlike the existing polynomial chaos expansion and Gaussian process-based approaches, our proposed method has much better scalability. Test results on the EPRI 1747-node K1 circuit with a different number and different probability distributions of uncertain sources demonstrate that the proposed method can achieve accurate GSA under various conditions.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

A physics-based model for industrial steam-methane reformer optimization with non-uniform temperature field

In an industrial hydrogen production facility, steam-methane reforming reactions take place inside hundreds of catalyst-filled tubes placed in a large scale, high temperature furnace. Process efficiency depends strongly on the wall temperature distribution of the ensemble of reformer tubes; a narrower distribution has a process intensification effect, by providing similar processing experience to every feedstock molecule. Such process intensification efforts require a furnace model that can predict the temperature distribution as a function of operating conditions. Currently available furnace modeling solutions are either computationally intensive, making them unsuitable for (online) optimization calculations, or empirical, having limited accuracy when wide changes in operating conditions are required. Here in this work, a physics-based furnace model is presented that overcomes these limitations. Empirical perturbations in a Hottel zone radiation model are proposed to capture the spatially non-symmetrical temperature distribution. The low computational time makes the model suitable for operational intensification based on reduction of temperature distribution non-uniformity.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Extracting Resilience Metrics From Distribution Utility Data Using Outage and Restore Process Statistics

Resilience curves track the accumulation and restoration of outages during an event on an electric distribution grid. We show that a resilience curve generated from utility data can always be decomposed into an outage process and a restore process and that these processes generally overlap in time. We use many events in real utility data to characterize the statistics of these processes, and derive formulas based on these statistics for resilience metrics such as restore duration, customer hours not served, and outage and restore rates. The formulas express the mean value of these metrics as a function of the number of outages in the event. We also give a formula for the variability of restore duration, which allows us to predict a maximum restore duration with 95% confidence. Overall, we give a simple and general way to decompose resilience curves into outage and restore processes and then show how to use these processes to extract resilience metrics from standard distribution system data.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Synthesis of observed and simulated rain microphysics to inform a new Bayesian statistical framework for microphysical parameterization in climate models (Final Scientific Report)

This project aimed to investigate a new approach to bulk microphysics schemes. We identified the need to move beyond the fixed structural assumptions and approximation of existing schemes. For example, most schemes assume some functional form for the rain drop size distribution (e.g. a gamma or exponential distribution). Most schemes then evolve some number of statistical moments of that distribution via various processes, such as evaporation, sedimentation, collision-coalescence, and collisional breakup. These microphysical processes, in turn, are typically some fixed functional form derived from either some other (more detailed) model, or using some single-particle rates that are then integrated over the size distribution. While these process rate functions may have some free parameters to adjust, in other cases doing so is impossible (e.g. when the process rates are analytical or piecewise solutions to some target function). Our goal was to build and test a scheme that assumed no size distribution form, and used a series of power laws as the basis for the process rates. Moments of the size distribution would be predicted, but no underlying size distribution would be specified. Any number or choice of size distribution moments could be used, and any number of power laws could be employed to model the process rates. Thus, our approach is flexible, and can seamlessly scale across levels of complexity, as demanded by the data. Bayesian inference then would provide the formalism to estimate the model parameters and structure, allowing for robust uncertainty quantification. We proposed testing this framework in idealized simulations using bin microphysical schemes as a data source. We also proposed using real data to inform our microphysics scheme, and also that we would integrate our scheme into WRF.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Systems and methods for evaluating electrolyte wetting and distribution

Systems and techniques for measuring process characteristics including electrolyte distribution in a battery cell. A non-destructive method for analyzing a battery cell includes determining acoustic features at two or more locations of the battery cell, the acoustic features based on one or more of acoustic signals travelling through at least one or more portions of the battery cell during one or more points in time or responses to the acoustic signals obtained during one or more points in time, wherein the one or more points in time correspond to one or more stages of electrolyte distribution in the battery cell. One or more characteristics of the battery cell are determined based on the acoustic features at the two or more locations of the battery cell.

Dou, Shan↗

Distributed Halide

Many image processing tasks are naturally expressed as a pipeline of small computational kernels known as stencils. Halide is a popular domain-specific language and compiler designed to implement image processing algorithms. Halide uses simple language constructs to express what to compute and a separate scheduling co-language for expressing when and where to perform the computation. This approach has demonstrated performance comparable to or better than hand-optimized code. Until now, however, Halide has been restricted to parallel shared memory execution, limiting its performance for memory-bandwidth-bound pipelines or large-scale image processing tasks. We present an extension to Halide to support distributed-memory parallel execution of complex stencil pipelines. These extensions compose with the existing scheduling constructs in Halide, allowing expression of complex computation and communication strategies. Existing Halide applications can be distributed with minimal changes, allowing programmers to explore the tradeoff between recomputation and communication with little effort. Approximately 10 new of lines code are needed even for a 200 line, 99 stage application. On nine image processing benchmarks, our extensions give up to a 1.4× speedup on a single node over regular multithreaded execution with the same number of cores, by mitigating the effects of non-uniform memory access. The distributed benchmarks achieve up to 18× speedup on a 16 node testing machine and up to 57× speedup on 64 nodes of the NERSC Cori supercomputer.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Auto-adaptive Harris corner detection algorithm based on entropy-improved block processing

Extracting well distributed control points (CPs) is a very challenging task for remote sensing image registration, particularly for large high-resolution images over heterogeneous landscape. Based on image analysis such as edge detection, corner detection, and information theory, a new CP detection approach is proposed to select high- quality, evenly distributed CPs. The Entropy-Block-Based variant of the Harris Corner Detector (EBB-HCD) is achieved by dividing the image into blocks and by allocating the number of CP's based upon the entropy of each block. While the block-based strategy improves the CP balance problem, a factor calculated from entropy avoids overdetection. We conducted a comparison study utilizing the well-known Harris Corner Detector (HCD) and an implementation of the Block-Based Harris Corner Detector (BB-HCD). Experimental results indicate that using EBB-HCD to find the CPs improves the overall alignment accuracy during registration compared with HCD or BB-HCD.

Sun, Yihang↗

Grain boundary character distribution in nanocrystalline metals produced by different processing routes

Nanocrystalline materials are defined by their fine grain size, but details of the grain boundary character distribution should also be important. Grain boundary character distributions are reported for ball-milled, sputter-deposited, and electrodeposited Ni and Ni-based alloys, all with average grain sizes of ~20 nm, to study the influence of processing route. The two deposited materials had nearly identical grain boundary character distributions, both marked by a Σ3 length percentage of 23 to 25 pct. In contrast, the ball-milled material had only 3 pct Σ3-type grain boundaries and a large fraction of low-angle boundaries (16 pct), with the remainder being predominantly random high angle (73 pct). Furthermore, these grain boundary character measurements are connected to the physical events that control their respective processing routes. Consequences for material properties are also discussed with a focus on nanocrystalline corrosion. As a whole, the results presented here show that grain boundary character distribution, which has often been overlooked in nanocrystalline metals, can vary significantly and influence material properties in profound ways.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Inverse Calculation of Burden Distribution Matrix Using B-spline Model Based PDF control in Blast Furnace Burden Charging Process

The inverse calculation of burden distribution matrix (BDM) is one of the most important challenges in the blast furnace operation in iron-making processes. In general, blast furnace consumes 65% of the total energy for the whole steel-making. Focusing on this practical challenge, this article proposes a new burden distribution spatial model in calculating burden charging process, and develops a B-spline approximation-based probability density function (PDF) control algorithm to assign the expected thickness distribution of burden layer and, thus, develops a new method for the required inverse calculation of BDM. First, a novel method for the thickness distribution of burden layer is given using B-spline model to produce an expected distribution shape subjected to a desired tracking within a specific spatial constraint. Then, according to the coexistence of continuous and bounded discrete variables in BDM, a novel hybrid optimization control method by combining integer programming and PDF tracking is further established for the effective inverse calculation of BDM. Finally, the proposed PDF-based iterative inverse calculation of BDM using B-spline models are tested using various data from industrial examples. Furthermore, the simulation results show that the proposed method is well suited to solve the BDM inverse calculation problem in practice.

42 ENGINEERING↗

RACORO aerosol data processing

The RACORO aerosol data (cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), condensation nuclei (CN) and aerosol size distributions) need further processing to be useful for model evaluation (e.g., GCM droplet nucleation parameterizations) and other investigations. These tasks include: (1) Identification and flagging of 'splash' contaminated Twin Otter aerosol data. (2) Calculation of actual supersaturation (SS) values in the two CCN columns flown on the Twin Otter. (3) Interpolation of CCN spectra from SGP and Twin Otter to 0.2% SS. (4) Process data for spatial variability studies. (5) Provide calculated light scattering from measured aerosol size distributions. Below we first briefly describe the measurements and then describe the results of several data processing tasks that which have been completed, paving the way for the scientific analyses for which the campaign was designed. The end result of this research will be several aerosol data sets which can be used to achieve some of the goals of the RACORO mission including the enhanced understanding of cloud-aerosol interactions and improved cloud simulations in climate models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Calibration of a distributed flood forecasting model with input uncertainty using a Bayesian framework

In the process of calibrating distributed hydrological models, accounting for input uncertainty is important, yet challenging. In this study, we develop a Bayesian model to estimate parameters associated with a geomorphology‐based hydrological model (GBHM). The GBHM model uses geomorphic characteristics to simplify model structure and physically based methods to represent hydrological processes. We divide the observed discharge into low‐ and high‐flow data, and use the first‐order autoregressive model to describe their temporal dependence. We consider relative errors in rainfall as spatially distributed variables and estimate them jointly with the GBHM parameters. The joint posterior probability distribution is explored using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, which include Metropolis‐Hastings, delay rejection adaptive Metropolis, and Gibbs sampling methods. We evaluate the Bayesian model using both synthetic and field data sets. The synthetic case study demonstrates that the developed method generally is effective in calibrating GBHM parameters and in estimating their associated uncertainty. The calibration ignoring input errors has lower accuracy and lower reliability compared to the calibration that includes estimation of the input errors, especially under model structure uncertainty. The field case study shows that calibration of GBHM parameters under complex field conditions remains a challenge. Although jointly estimating input errors and GBHM parameters improves the continuous ranked probability score and the consistency of the predictive distribution with the observed data, the improvement is incremental. To better calibrate parameters in a distributed model, such as GBHM here, we need to develop a more complex model and incorporate much more information.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗