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At least 307 records · Page 17
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

A meta-learning based distribution system load forecasting model selection framework

This paper presents a meta-learning based, automatic distribution system load forecasting model selection framework. Furthermore, the framework includes the following processes: feature extraction, candidate model preparation and labeling, offline training, and online model recommendation. Using load forecasting needs and data characteristics as input features, multiple metalearners are used to rank the candidate load forecast models based on their forecasting accuracy. Then, a scoring-voting mechanism is proposed to weights recommendations from each meta-leaner and make the final recommendations. Heterogeneous load forecasting tasks with different temporal and technical requirements at different load aggregation levels are set up to train, validate, and test the performance of the proposed framework. Simulation results demonstrate that the performance of the meta-learning based approach is satisfactory in both seen and unseen forecasting tasks.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Feedback Control Approaches for Restoration of Power Grids from Blackouts

The automated restoration of power systems with variable energy resources is a timely problem to tackle. Automated restoration advice can support operators in deciding on strategic actions to restore power grids from a blackout with a mix of conventional and renewable generation resources. To this end, this paper frames the restoration process of power grids with solar resources as a nonlinear dynamic model with algebraic constraints in discrete time which is steered by feedback control loops. We discuss two feedback-control strategies based on greedy and reinforcement learning algorithms, and contrast their performance with restoration plans generated by a mixed-integer linear program. We found that the reinforcement learning algorithm infers restoration actions faster than the greedy one. However, the tuning process of the reinforcement learning parameters is slower than for the greedy one.

machine learning↗
DOE OSTI2021

An Observationally Trained Markov Model for MJO Propagation

A Markovian stochastic model is developed for studying the propagation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). This model represents the daily changes in real time multivariate MJO (RMM) indices as random functions of their current state and background conditions. The probability distribution function of the RMM changes is obtained using a machine learning algorithm trained to maximize MJO forecast skills using observed daily indices of RMM and different modes of variability. Skillful forecasts are obtained for lead times between 8 and 27 days. Large ensemble simulations by the stochastic model show that with monsoonal changes in the background state, MJO propagation across the Maritime Continent (MC) is most likely to be disrupted in boreal spring and summer when MJO events propagate from favorable conditions over the Indian Ocean to unfavorable ones over the MC, and predictability is higher during spring and summer when MJO activity is away from the MC region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Quantifying Groundwater Response and Uncertainty in Beaver‐Influenced Mountainous Floodplains Using Machine Learning‐Based Model Calibration

Abstract Beavers ( Castor canadensis ) alter river corridor hydrology by creating ponds and inundating floodplains, and thereby improving surface water storage. However, the impact of inundation on groundwater, particularly in mountainous alluvial floodplains with permeable gravel/cobble layers overlain by a soil layer, remains uncertain. Numerical modeling across various floodplain structures considers topographic and sediment complexity and multidirectional flow, linking inundation to groundwater response. This study develops a model‐data integration workflow to address uncertainty in groundwater response to beaver‐induced inundations in a mountainous alluvial floodplain in the Upper Colorado River Basin. Uncertain factors include seasonal hydrologic dynamics, hydraulic conductivities, floodplain structures, and meteorological forcings. We employed an ensemble of groundwater models, based on geophysical and hydrologic data, with machine learning‐based calibration using a neural density estimator. This allowed us to quantify the vertical flux from the soil layer to the permeable gravel bed, the down‐valley underflow within the gravel bed, and their ratios. Results show a significant increase in the vertical flux relative to down‐valley underflow, from 2 during dry pond periods to 20 during wet periods, serving as an analogy for conditions without and with beaver ponds. The study highlights the influence of floodplain structure on groundwater storage, water balance, and water quality impacted by beaver ponds. A thick gravel bed layer, with a large down‐valley underflow, minimizes the effect of beaver‐induced inundation on water quality. We emphasize the need for field‐scale measurements of floodplain structure and improved characterization of evapotranspiration changes to reduce uncertainty in groundwater response. Plain Language Summary Beavers change the flow of water in river corridors by creating ponds, expanding wetlands, and flooding floodplains. This increases surface water area, promotes plant growth, and enhances biodiversity. However, the impact of this flooding on groundwater flow is not well understood, especially in mountainous areas with gravel layers where water moves easily beneath soil. In this study, we used numerical modeling to investigate how beaver ponds influence groundwater in a mountainous floodplain of the Upper Colorado River Basin. We adapted a machine learning method to validate our numerical models using multiple field data sets. Our findings show that beaver ponds significantly increase vertical water flow from the soil to the gravel during wet periods, compared to when the ponds are fully drained. The study also highlights the importance of floodplain structure in controlling both water flow in gravel layers along the river direction and vertical flow from the soil to the gravel with the presence of beavers. To reduce uncertainty in groundwater response, we emphasize the need for more field‐scale measurements of floodplain structure, hydraulic properties, and evapotranspiration changes. Key Points Floodplain structures and hydraulic conductivities are important for groundwater response with beaver ponds in mountainous floodplains Large down‐valley underflow in permeability‐stratified floodplains reduces beaver‐induced impacts on groundwater storage and water quality Machine learning‐based model calibration methods are effective for estimating posterior distributions of groundwater model parameters

Wang, Lijing↗
DOE OSTI2021

MLExchange v1

A Machine Learning Platform that connects beamline scientists and machine learning (ML) researchers so that the ML researchers can quickly distribute their ML models to beamline scientists, and beamline scientists can give feedback to help ML researchers improve their models.

Hexemer, Alexander↗
DOE OSTI2021

AGGREGATE: dAta-driven modelinG preservinG contRollable dEr for outaGe mAnagemenT and rEsiliency (Final Report)

The AGGREGATE project team successfully developed and validated various modules for outage management. Brief summaries of each module are provided to showcase their strength for outage management and restoration for a distribution system with a high penetration of connected distribution energy resources (DERs). In recent years, inverter-based DERs have been widely deployed in distribution system. A most of behind-the-meter (BTM) solar power generation is not visible to the utility. The data-driven DER and load estimation modules are using machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI) to manage this issue, which provides an opportunity for distribution system operators (DSOs) to operate systems and make decisions in real-time for a distribution system with a high penetration of DERs deployed. Also, the estimated DER and true load can be further leveraged in network aggregation and cold-load pick up estimation for reducing the computing complexity and providing for fast restoration. After load demand and DER power generations have been estimated, the information will support topology and state estimation (SE). The topology estimation module demonstrated the viability of mixed integer linear programming (MILP) formulation to estimate the most likely operational radial topology and outage sections using power flow measurements, historical/estimated load and DERs data and smart meter ping measurements. Formulation includes continuous (power flow, load and DERs data) and binary measurements (smart meter ping measurements) in a single formulation. Errors in continuous data and binary data are modeled as normal distribution and Bernoulli distribution, respectively. In the future distribution grid, the power injection from controllable DERs will be essential for efficient and resilient grid operation. However, determining the optimal DER injections and restoration actions is dependent on knowledge of the system states. State estimation (SE), already the cornerstone of transmission energy management systems, will become commonplace in distribution management systems as more measurements become available from deployment of automated metering infrastructure (AMI). Observability analysis is the first step in SE, as it determines the sufficiency of the available measurements for accurately estimating the current system states. A new type of pseudo-measurement called a Correlational Measurement (CM) is introduced in this module, to enhance the observability of the system to enable more accurate SE. CMs encapsulate knowledge of correlation between demand patterns for similar classes of loads as well as injection patterns for same-technology renewable DERs. During grid contingency scenarios, DERs have been traditionally disconnected, without any fault ride-through capabilities. However, with new regulations and better technology, it is feasible for these resources to contribute to the grid’s restoration after an adverse event and hence enhance resilience. The controllability module proposes a two-step restoration scheme for the power system restoration process by leveraging additional degrees of freedom in power electronics interfaced DERs for mitigating voltage problems. In a resilience mode without the utility system, the distribution grid relies on DERs to serve critical load. In such a severe event with multiple faults on the distribution feeders, actuation of various protective devices (PDs) divides the distribution system into electrical islands. The undetected actuated PDs due to fault current contributions from DERs can delay the restoration process, thereby reducing the system resilience. The Advanced Outage Management (AOM) and the Advanced Feeder Restoration (AFR) modules developed in this project provide improved system resilience with multiple DERs. AOM identifies the faulted sections and actuated PDs in a distribution system with DERs by incorporating smart meter data. The most credible outage scenario including fault locations, PD actuations, and fault indicator (FI) failures is identified by a set of binary integer linear programming incorporating hypotheses. The AFR module serves to restore a distribution system with available energy resources taking into consideration the availability of utility sources and DERs. By partitioning the system into islands, critical load will be served with the available generation resources within islands based on the solution of a MILP. When the utility systems become available, the optimal path will be determined by a spanning tree search algorithm that reconnects these islands back to substations and restores the remaining load. The transmission and distribution (T&D) co-simulation module was used to validate the effect of a control action performed on the distribution side assets as it propagates to the transmission side. This ensures that the control action performed results in a feasible operating point on both the transmission and the distribution system. In addition to validation, the team used the T&D co-simulation module to demonstrate how distribution system assets can be used to mitigate issues on the transmission system. Specifically, the team demonstrated that appropriate switching operations on the distribution side can alleviate the line overload condition on the transmission side without causing new operational constraint violations.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Large Scale MD to Predict Epitope Regions in HIV Env [Slides]

Highly dense carbohydrates located on the surface of the HIV Env protein play a key role in immune evasion. Such evolutionary adaptation hampers any attempt to obtain a full mechanistic understanding of the role played by the glycans in protecting the virus against an effective immune response. Moreover, and due to their chemical variability, an accurate molecular understanding of the so called “glycan shield” is still limited by the lack of effective resolution of state-of-the-art experimental technics. Here, we have used extensive computational modelling in order to fill this gap, addressing the presence of a large glycan variability as observed experimentally. Based on an automated pipeline, we were able to assemble, set-up and simulate via Molecular dynamics hundreds of different glycosylated Env variants at nearly atomic resolution, recapitulating the glycosylation distributions observed experimentally. Results from these simulations were subjected to machine learning and very accurate prediction of simulation derived glycan shielding areas of each glycan as a function of static sequence features. Such predictive models of per-glycan shielding, incorporating both glycan dynamics and heterogeneity, were used to develop a novel sequence-based glycan shield mapping strategy. Parallel to these studies, we also developed an accurate machine learning approach to predict glycan heterogeneity data using sequence features and found good prediction accuracy.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

A New Framework for Interstellar Medium Emission Line Models: Connecting Multiscale Simulations across Cosmological Volumes

The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) and Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array have detected emission lines from the ionized interstellar medium (ISM) in some of the first galaxies at z ≳ 6. These measurements present an opportunity to better understand galaxy assembly histories and may allow important tests of state-of-the-art galaxy formation simulations. It is challenging, however, to model these lines in their proper cosmological context. In order to meet this challenge, we introduce a novel subgrid line emission modeling framework. The framework uses the high-z zoom-in simulation suite from the Feedback in Realistic Environments (FIRE) collaboration. The line emission signals from H II regions within each simulated FIRE galaxy are modeled using the semianalytic HIIL INES code. A machine learning approach is then used to determine the conditional probability distribution for the line luminosity to stellar-mass ratio from the H II regions around each simulated stellar particle. This conditional probability distribution can then be applied to predict the line luminosities around stellar particles in lower-resolution, yet larger volume cosmological simulations. As an example, we apply this approach to the IllustrisTNG simulations at z = 6. The resulting predictions for the [O II ], [O III ], and Balmer line luminosities as a function of star formation rate agree well with current observations. Our predictions differ, however, from related works in the literature, which lack detailed subgrid ISM models. This highlights the importance of our multiscale simulation modeling framework. Finally, we provide forecasts for future line luminosity function measurements from the JWST and quantify the cosmic variance in such surveys.

(ISM:) H II regions↗
DOE OSTI2026

Generative models on phase space

Deep generative models such as diffusion and flow matching are powerful machine learning tools capable of learning and sampling from high-dimensional distributions. They are particularly useful when the training data appears to be concentrated on a submanifold of the data embedding space. For high-energy physics data, consisting of collections of relativistic energy-momentum 4-vectors, this submanifold can enforce extremely strong physically-motivated priors, such as energy and momentum conservation. If these constraints are learned only approximately, rather than exactly, this can inhibit the interpretability and reliability of such generative models. To remedy this deficiency, we introduce generative models which are, by construction, confined at every step of their sampling trajectory to the manifold of massless N-particle Lorentz-invariant phase space in the center-of-momentum frame. In the case of diffusion models, the "pure noise" forward process endpoint corresponds to the uniform distribution on phase space, which provides a clear starting point from which to identify how correlations among the particles emerge during the reverse (de-noising) process. We demonstrate that our models are able to learn both few-particle and many-particle distributions with various singularity structures, paving the way for future interpretability studies using generative models trained on simulated jet data.

Bogorad, Zachary [Fermilab]↗
DOE OSTI2024

LandScan Global 2023: Silver Edition

For a quarter of a century, the LandScan Global (LSG) project has annually released a global, high-resolution gridded population dataset representing the ambient or unwarned population at a 30 arcsecond resolution. LSG supports a range of applications such as emergency management, disaster response, and human health and security for understanding populations at risk. The 2023 release of LSG, the LandScan Silver Edition, represents a major methodological leap forward while also leveraging previous knowledge—the previous year was the baseline for the current annual update carrying forward valuable knowledge of the built environment for the past quarter century—to train the machine learning models. Compared with annual releases over the past 24years, multiple advancements were made to different aspects of the methodology to achieve reproducibility, transparency, and consistent global propagation of solutions to modeling or population distribution issues identified during the review process. These novel changes include incorporation of the latest available geospatial inputs across the globe, machine learning models instead of manual modifications, population feature importance analysis, open-source solutions vs. proprietary software, generation of multiple global versions, analytic validations, and human-in-the-loop revisions to produce the final version. Additionally, algorithms—such as anomaly detection—were introduced to quickly identify areas of focus to develop a new and robust systematic review. Significant changes in modeled population distributions were observed between the 2022 and 2023 releases, largely attributable to improvements in data and methods and discussed thoroughly within this report. In summation, the LandScan Silver Edition leverages the best of the past quarter century of LSG legacy knowledge and continues a tradition of applying cutting-edge enhancements to serve as a new benchmark for accurate, actionable gridded population data

Lebakula, Viswadeep↗
DOE OSTI2023

Confidentiality-preserving machine learning algorithms for soft-failure detection in optical communication networks

Automated fault management is at the forefront of next-generation optical communication networks. The increase in complexity of modern networks has triggered the need for programmable and software-driven architectures to support the operation of agile and self-managed systems. In these scenarios, the European Telecommunications Standards Institute zero-touch network and service management approach is imperative. The need for machine learning algorithms to process the large volume of telemetry data brings safety concerns as distributed cloud-computing solutions become the preferred approach for deploying reliable communication network automation. This paper’s contribution is twofold. First, we propose a simple yet effective method to guarantee the confidentiality of the telemetry data based on feature scrambling. The method allows the operation of third-party computational services without direct access to the full content of the collected data. Additionally, the effectiveness of four unsupervised machine learning algorithms for soft-failure detection is evaluated when applied to the scrambled telemetry data. The methods are based on factor analysis, principal component analysis, nonlinear principal component analysis, and singular value decomposition. Most dimensionality reduction algorithms have the common property that they can maintain similar levels of fault classification performance while hiding the data structure from unauthorized access. Evaluations of the proposed algorithms demonstrate this capability.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Adaptive Protection and Control for High Penetration PV and Grid Resilience (Final Technical Report)

The report summarizes the work and accomplishments of DOE SETO funded project 36533 “Adaptive Protection and Control for High Penetration PV and Grid Resilience”. In order to increase the amount of distributed solar power that can be integrated into the distribution system, new methods for optimal adaptive protection, artificial intelligence or machine learning based protection, and time domain traveling wave protection are developed and demonstrated in hardware-in-the-loop and a field demonstration.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Local and utility-wide cost allocations for a more equitable wildfire-resilient distribution grid

Climate-induced extreme weather conditions make electricity infrastructure more vulnerable. They increase the risk of power-line-ignited wildfires which can, in turn, jeopardize electric power delivery. Here, leveraging machine learning, we show that lower-income communities in California not only have lower fractions of power distribution lines undergrounded, but overhead lines and poles in their neighbourhoods are also more vulnerable to wildfires. Should they bear the cost of undergrounding fire-prone lines themselves, they would have to pay a disproportionately higher cost per household. We propose a cost allocation scheme with an income threshold below which the cost is borne by utility-wide ratepayers and above which the cost is borne locally. This scheme can not only minimize the average of undergrounding costs per household as a share of income, but also homogenize such cost–income ratios across communities. Furthermore, our research demonstrates the opportunity to appropriately integrate existing policies to make electricity infrastructure affordable, equitable and reliable amidst climate change.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Harnessing distributed GPU computing for generalizable graph convolutional networks in power grid reliability assessments

Although machine learning (ML) has emerged as a powerful tool for rapidly assessing grid contingencies, prior studies have largely considered a static grid topology in their analyses. This limits their application, since they need to be re-trained for every new topology. Here, this paper explores the development of generalizable graph convolutional network (GCN) models by pre-training them across a range of grid topologies and contingency types. We found that a GCN model with auto-regressive moving average (ARMA) layers with a line graph representation of the grid offered the best predictive performance in predicting voltage magnitudes (VM) and voltage angles (VA). We introduced the concept of phantom nodes to consider disparate grid topologies with a varying number of nodes and lines. For pre-training the GCN ARMA model across a variety of topologies, distributed graphics processing unit (GPU) computing afforded us significant training scalability. The predictive performance of this model on grid topologies that were part of the training data is substantially better than the direct current (DC) approximation. Although direct application of the pre-trained model to topologies that are not part of the grid is not particularly satisfactory, fine-tuning with small amounts of data from a specific topology of interest significantly improves predictive performance. In general, this paper highlights the feasibility of training large-scale GNN models to assess the reliability of power grids by considering a wide variety of grid topologies and contingency types. With the advent of foundational models in ML and the exponential increase in GPU computing clusters, generalizable ML models will significantly enhance how utilities manage power systems and make decisions in real-time or near-real-time.

24 - POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Exploring Transport Behavior in Hybrid Perovskites Solar Cells via Machine Learning Analysis of Environmental-Dependent Impedance Spectroscopy

Hybrid organic–inorganic perovskites are one of the promising candidates for the next-generation semiconductors due to their superlative optoelectronic properties. However, one of the limiting factors for potential applications is their chemical and structural instability in different environments. Herein, the stability of (FAPbI3)0.85(MAPbBr3)0.15 perovskite solar cell is explored in different atmospheres using impedance spectroscopy. An equivalent circuit model and distribution of relaxation times (DRTs) are used to effectively analyze impedance spectra. DRT is further analyzed via machine learning workflow based on the non-negative matrix factorization of reconstructed relaxation time spectra. This exploration provides the interplay of charge transport dynamics and recombination processes under environment stimuli and illumination. The results reveal that in the dark, oxygen atmosphere induces an increased hole concentration with less ionic character while ionic motion is dominant under ambient air. Under 1 Sun illumination, the environment-dependent impedance responses show a more striking effect compared with dark conditions. In this case, the increased transport resistance observed under oxygen atmosphere in equivalent circuit analysis arises due to interruption of photogenerated hole carriers. The results not only shed light on elucidating transport mechanisms of perovskite solar cells in different environments but also offer an effective interpretation of impedance responses.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Accurate and Rapid Forecasts for Geologic Carbon Storage via Learning-Based Inversion-Free Prediction

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is one approach being studied by the U.S. Department of Energy to help mitigate global warming. The process involves capturing CO 2 emissions from industrial sources and permanently storing them in deep geologic formations (storage reservoirs). However, CCS projects generally target “green field sites,” where there is often little characterization data and therefore large uncertainty about the petrophysical properties and other geologic attributes of the storage reservoir. Consequently, ensemble-based approaches are often used to forecast multiple realizations prior to CO 2 injection to visualize a range of potential outcomes. In addition, monitoring data during injection operations are used to update the pre-injection forecasts and thereby improve agreement between forecasted and observed behavior. Thus, a system for generating accurate, timely forecasts of pressure buildup and CO 2 movement and distribution within the storage reservoir and for updating those forecasts via monitoring measurements becomes crucial. This study proposes a learning-based prediction method that can accurately and rapidly forecast spatial distribution of CO 2 concentration and pressure with uncertainty quantification without relying on traditional inverse modeling. The machine learning techniques include dimension reduction, multivariate data analysis, and Bayesian learning. The outcome is expected to provide CO 2 storage site operators with an effective tool for timely and informative decision making based on limited simulation and monitoring data.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗