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At least 307 records · Page 17

Method for System-Level Multidisciplinary Uncertainty Analysis of Low-Boom Flight Vehicles

Current research supporting NASA’s Commercial Supersonic Technology project is focused on the efficient prediction of uncertainty in sonic boom loudness generated by low-boom aircraft concepts. This paper focuses on research incorporating aircraft trim and aerostructural analysis into a multidisciplinary system-level uncertainty analysis. This enables the modeling of a steady-state representation of a point in the uncertainty space, simulating the vehicle as it would be flown. This approach also enables multiple uncertain parameters defining the configuration of the vehicle to be reduced to three: Mach number, altitude, and aircraft weight. To demonstrate this methodology, a case study exploring a conceptual low-boom supersonic aircraft is performed. Two different approaches are used to model the interactions between nearfield pressure signature analysis and sonic boom propagation, and their performance is evaluated in terms of accuracy and computational expense. One method uses a set of local surrogate models to generate a large number of nearfield signatures and perform Monte Carlo analysis. This method is found to produce, at a lower expense, uncertainty metrics that are comparable to the second method, in which uncertainty metrics are computed based on loudness metric values obtained directly from simulated nearfield signatures.

Supersonics↗

Comparison of active interrogation methods for source location in a scattering and absorbing medium, consisting of PGNAA, and an AmBe quasi-forward biased directional source

Source location of Special Nuclear Material (SNM) encompassing 95% 235 U and 239 Pu is identified by utilizing a directional source from Patent No: US20190013109A1 using Prompt Gamma Neutron Activation Analysis (PGNAA) and neutron spectroscopy simulated with Monte-Carlo N-Particle transport 6.2 (MCNP). BC-408, HPGe, LaBr 3 detector arrays were used to identify the location of the SNM using total counts incident on each detector, and PGNAA photopeaks from HPGe and LaBr 3 detector arrays in a polyethylene shield. The conducted simulations varied the volume and location of the SNM in the MCNP input files to observe how the source location method behaved. PGNAA photopeaks used for source identification include 61 keV from fission, 2.223 MeV prompt gamma from hydrogen, 511 keV annihilation, and a single and double escape peaks from the prompt gamma interaction from hydrogen. The capabilities of each detector systems to acquire well resolved photopeaks with a 1% relative error or less, and total relative error for F4 and F8 tallies were less than 0.015% relative error. Source predictions of the SNM with uneven amounts of polyethylene shielding between the source and detectors was observed to overpredict and give invalid source location predictions. Source locations of the SNM with even amounts of polyethylene material between the source and each detector were found to be valid. With a 1 Ci 241 Am source activity, it was determined that 1630 s were needed to obtain the results for each detector system with the quasi-forward directional AmBe source. Coupling source and material identification together would increase acquisition time but would only require one system to determine.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Abundance recovery error analysis using simulated AVIRIS data

Measurement noise and imperfect atmospheric correction translate directly into errors in the determination of the surficial abundance of materials from imaging spectrometer data. The effects of errors on abundance recovery were investigated previously using Monte Carlo simulation methods by Sabol et. al. The drawback of the Monte Carlo approach is that thousands of trials are needed to develop good statistics on the probable error in abundance recovery. This computational burden invariably limits the number of scenarios of interest that can practically be investigated. A more efficient approach is based on covariance analysis. The covariance analysis approach expresses errors in abundance as a function of noise in the spectral measurements and provides a closed form result eliminating the need for multiple trials. Monte Carlo simulation and covariance analysis are used to predict confidence limits for abundance recovery for a scenario which is modeled as being derived from Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS).

Stoner, William W.↗

Recommended DSMC Collision Model Parameters for Planetary Entry

Hybrid simulation frameworks combining Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) and Direct Simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) are frequently employed to efficiently perform high-fidelity simulations of environments consisting of both continuum and rarified flow. DSMC is a stochastic, particle-based method which solves the fundamental Boltzmann equation and is therefore necessary for high-Knudsen flow where continuum-based assumptions governing CFD break down. However, the DSMC methodology is generally computationally inefficient to model the continuum regime. In a CFD/DSMC hybrid approach, obtaining an accurate, high-fidelity solution hinges on the consistent treatment of transport properties and the thermo-chemical models employed within the two solvers. In principle, in regions where CFD and DSMC are both employed, the same gas mixture under the same conditions should have the same properties, regardless of simulation type. Observed differences should be due to non-equilibrium processes, rather than differences in physical models. The goal of this work is to provide a comprehensive DSMC transport database encompassing the vast majority of known gas species encountered during Earth or other planetary atmospheric entry. This goal is largely possible due to recently performed ab initio quantum chemistry calculations. Combined with other high-fidelity data, the planned database will consist of collision integral data for over 200 neutral and ionized species and over 20000 binary collisions. From these collision integrals, Nelder-Mead optimization is used to compute collision-specific Variable Soft Sphere (VSS) collision model parameters, fitted from 300 K to 20000 K. Initial comparisons of transport properties of relevant equilibrium gas mixtures show great agreement between CFD and DSMC-derived results. The completed database can be readily applied to model binary collisions of any gas mixture containing the included species over the specified temperature range, making it a valuable tool for future planetary probe modeling efforts. An example is shown below in Fig. 1. Equilibrium mixture transport properties for a 35-species mixture composed originally of 10% air and 90% pyrolysis species of a carbon-phenolic ablator material [4] are computed using both fitted VSS Parameters and the original CFD collision integral values. Deviations in computed properties between the two approaches are less than 5% for the entire temperature range.

M. R. Gosma↗

Kinetic dissection of individual steps in the poly(C)-directed oligoguanylate synthesis from guanosine 5'-monophosphate 2-methylimidazolide

A kinetic study of oligoguanylate synthesis on a polycytidylate template, poly(C), as a function of the concentration of the activated monomer, guanosine 5'-monophosphate 2-methylimidazolide, 2-MeImpG, is reported. Reactions were run with 0.005-0.045 M 2-MeImpG in the presence of 0.05 M poly(C) at 23 degrees C. The kinetic results are consistent with a reaction scheme (eq 1) that consists of a series of consecutive steps, each step representing the addition of one molecule of 2-MeImpG to the growing oligomer. This scheme allows the calculation of second-order rate constants for every step by analyzing the time-dependent growth of each oligomer. Computer simulations of the course of reaction based on the determined rate constants and eq 1 are in excellent agreement with the product distributions seen in the HPLC profiles. In accord with an earlier study (Fakhrai, H.; Inoue, T.; Orgel, L. E. Tetrahedron 1984, 40, 39), rate constants, ki, for the formation of the tetramer and longer oligomers up to the 16-mer were found to be independent of length and somewhat higher than k3 (formation of trimer), which in turn is much higher than k2 (formation of dimer). The ki (i > or = 4), k3, and k2 values are not true second-order rate constants but vary with monomer concentration. Mechanistic models for the dimerization (Scheme I) and elongation reactions (Scheme II) are proposed that are consistent with our results. These models take into account that the monomer associates with the template in a cooperative manner. Our kinetic analysis allowed the determination of rate constants for the elementary processes of covalent bond formation between two monomers (dimerization) and between an oligomer and a monomer (elongation) on the template. A major conclusion from our study is that bond formation between two monomer units or between a primer and a monomer is assisted by the presence of additional next-neighbor monomer units. This is consistent with recent findings with hairpin oligonucleotides (Wu, T.; Orgel, L. E. J. Am. Chem. Soc. 1992, 114, 317). Our study is the first of its kind that shows the feasibility of a thorough kinetic analysis of a template-directed oligomerization and provides a detailed mechanistic model of these reactions.

Non-NASA Center↗

Model for radial dependence of frequency distributions for energy imparted in nanometer volumes from HZE particles

This paper develops a deterministic model of frequency distributions for energy imparted (total energy deposition) in small volumes similar to DNA molecules from high-energy ions of interest for space radiation protection and cancer therapy. Frequency distributions for energy imparted are useful for considering radiation quality and for modeling biological damage produced by ionizing radiation. For high-energy ions, secondary electron (delta-ray) tracks originating from a primary ion track make dominant contributions to energy deposition events in small volumes. Our method uses the distribution of electrons produced about an ion's path and incorporates results from Monte Carlo simulation of electron tracks to predict frequency distributions for ions, including their dependence on radial distance. The contribution from primary ion events is treated using an impact parameter formalism of spatially restricted linear energy transfer (LET) and energy-transfer straggling. We validate our model by comparing it directly to results from Monte Carlo simulations for proton and alpha-particle tracks. We show for the first time frequency distributions of energy imparted in DNA structures by several high-energy ions such as cosmic-ray iron ions. Our comparison with results from Monte Carlo simulations at low energies indicates the accuracy of the method.

Non-NASA Center↗

Solidification and crystallographic texture modeling of laser powder bed fusion Ti-6Al-4V using finite difference-monte carlo method

Laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) additive manufacturing makes near-net-shaped parts with reduced material cost and time, rising as a promising technology to fabricate Ti-6Al-4V, a widely used titanium alloy in aerospace and medical industries. However, LPBF Ti-6Al-4V parts produced with 67° rotation between layers, a scan strategy commonly used to reduce microstructure and property inhomogeneity, have varying grain morphologies and weak crystallographic textures that change depending on processing parameters. Here, this study predicts LPBF Ti-6Al-4V solidification at three energy levels using a finite difference-Monte Carlo method and validates the simulations with large-area electron backscatter diffraction (EBSD) scans. The developed model accurately shows that a <001> texture forms at low energy and a <111> texture occurs at higher energies parallel to the build direction but with a lower strength than the textures observed from EBSD. A validated and well-established method of combining spatial correlation and general spherical harmonics representation of texture is developed to calculate a difference score between simulations and experiments. The quantitative comparison enables effective fine-tuning of nucleation density (N 0 ) input, which shows a nonlinear relationship with increasing energy level. Future improvements in texture prediction code and a more comprehensive study of N 0 with different energy levels will further advance the optimization of LPBF Ti-6Al-4V components. These developments contribute a novel understanding of crystallographic texture formation in LPBF Ti-6Al-4V, the development of robust model validation and calibration pipeline methodologies, and provide a platform for mechanical property prediction and process parameter optimization.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

A New Aerodynamic Data Dispersion Method for Launch Vehicle Design

A novel method for implementing aerodynamic data dispersion analysis is herein introduced. A general mathematical approach combined with physical modeling tailored to the aerodynamic quantity of interest enables the generation of more realistically relevant dispersed data and, in turn, more reasonable flight simulation results. The method simultaneously allows for the aerodynamic quantities and their derivatives to be dispersed given a set of non-arbitrary constraints, which stresses the controls model in more ways than with the traditional bias up or down of the nominal data within the uncertainty bounds. The adoption and implementation of this new method within the NASA Ares I Crew Launch Vehicle Project has resulted in significant increases in predicted roll control authority, and lowered the induced risks for flight test operations. One direct impact on launch vehicles is a reduced size for auxiliary control systems, and the possibility of an increased payload. This technique has the potential of being applied to problems in multiple areas where nominal data together with uncertainties are used to produce simulations using Monte Carlo type random sampling methods. It is recommended that a tailored physics-based dispersion model be delivered with any aerodynamic product that includes nominal data and uncertainties, in order to make flight simulations more realistic and allow for leaner spacecraft designs.

Pinier, Jeremy T.↗

Adaptive Stress Testing of Airborne Collision Avoidance Systems

This paper presents a scalable method to efficiently search for the most likely state trajectory leading to an event given only a simulator of a system. Our approach uses a reinforcement learning formulation and solves it using Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS). The approach places very few requirements on the underlying system, requiring only that the simulator provide some basic controls, the ability to evaluate certain conditions, and a mechanism to control the stochasticity in the system. Access to the system state is not required, allowing the method to support systems with hidden state. The method is applied to stress test a prototype aircraft collision avoidance system to identify trajectories that are likely to lead to near mid-air collisions. We present results for both single and multi-threat encounters and discuss their relevance. Compared with direct Monte Carlo search, this MCTS method performs significantly better both in finding events and in maximizing their likelihood.

Verification and Validation↗

Neural MUSE Analysis

Researchers at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) created data as part of the MUSE (Multi-Agency Urban Search Experiment Detector and Algorithm Test Bed) project simulating illicit nuclear materials located in various buildings along a road. In the simulation, a truck containing a radiation detector drives down the road gathering listmode data (counting the and energy of incident gamma radiation). Building materials, source shielding, driving speed, truck direction, truck location on the road, source type, and source placement are all varied between runs of the data set. This data was created using deterministic neutron transport and Monte Carlo methods through a combination of SCALE, MAVRIC, MCNP, and GADRAS. As part of a follow-on NA-22 project, two Kaggle competitions were created to determine the best algorithms for finding and identifying gamma sources in this simulated urban environment. The winning algorithm was neural network-based and had a test accuracy of 76.4% accuracy for source identification. This work seeks to build upon this work and improve the results through the application of novel machine learning techniques. As a first step, the data was classified by a simple Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) To accomplish this, the data was first preprocessed into “waterfall plots.” These plots are composed of energy vs count plots that are stacked vertically to show progression in time. The horizontal axis indicating the particle energy incorporated user defined bin spacing with options for in linear-, logarithmic-, square root-, and user-spaced bins. The z or color dimension showed the number of counts corresponding the energy-time combination. This data was then used to generate more data, by generating a local estimate of the mean of the distribution for a bin and then randomly re-sampling that bin from a Poisson distribution. Once all of this data was generated, it was fed into a well-known CNN architecture, ResNet50. The output layer of this model was removed and replaced with layers corresponding to the shape desired isotope outputs. The provided training data was used to train the classifier and the remaining testing data was used to evaluate the model. Results are soon to be forthcoming.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

Monte Carlo Simulations of Crystal Defects in Open Ensembles

Zero- and two-dimensional crystal defects form in open statistical ensembles, such as the grand canonical, that are usually inaccessible with conventional simulation techniques. This longstanding challenge is overcome with a new Hamiltonian Monte Carlo method that samples energy-biased gradual transformations. In conclusion, the method enables free energy calculations for nonideal point defects and the direct prediction of finite-temperature interface structures.

Grain boundaries↗

An Integrated Simulation of Multiple-Pass U-10Mo Alloy Hot Rolling and Static Recrystallization

To achieve a desired microstructure and minimize the thickness variation in rolled foils, researchers must understand the effects of foil fabrication process variables on microstructure evolution. We developed an integrated simulation of deformation and recrystallization that employs the finite element method (FEM) and the kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC) Potts model, respectively, to investigate microstructure evolution during multiple-pass hot rolling and heat treatment in polycrystalline U-10Mo fuel. Scanning electron microscopy and electron backscatter diffraction images of microstructures were directly used as input in FEM calculation of deformation, and the calculated strains were used to determine the driving force of nucleation and growth of recrystallized grains in the Potts model. Grain structures predicted by the Potts model were used to update the grain structure and material properties for FEM. Simulation alternated between FEM and the Potts model to simulate grain structure evolution during multiple rolling and heat treatments. The initial model parameters were determined by benchmarking the recrystallization kinetics against experimental data. Then, the model was applied to predict the grain structure evolution. Results showed that our model can capture the coupling between deformation and recrystallization and can quantitatively reproduce the observed U-10Mo recrystallization and grain growth kinetics. The simulation results demonstrated that the developed model can predict U-10Mo grain structures as a function of initial microstructure and foil fabrication parameters.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Modeling rarefied gas chemistry with QuiPS, a novel quasi-particle method

The goal of this work is to build up the capability of quasi-particle simulation (QuiPS), a novel flow solver, such that it can adequately model the rarefied portion of an atmospheric reentry trajectory. Direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) is the conventional solver for such conditions, but struggles to resolve transient flows, trace species, and high-level internal energy states due to stochastic noise. Quasi-particle simulation (QuiPS) is a novel Boltzmann solver that describes a system with a discretized, truncated velocity distribution function. The resulting fixed-velocity, variable weight quasi-particles enable smooth variation of macroscopic properties. The distribution function description enables the use of a variance-reduced collision model, greatly minimizing expense near equilibrium. This work presents the addition of a neutral air chemistry model to QuiPS and some demonstrative 0D simulations. The explicit representation of internal distributions in QuiPS reveals some of the flaws in existing physics models. Overall, variance reduction, a key feature of QuiPS, can greatly reduce expense of multi-dimensional calculations, but is only cheaper when the gas composition is near chemical equilibrium.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Describing hadronization via histories and observables for Monte-Carlo event reweighting

We introduce a novel method for extracting a fragmentation model directly from experimental data without requiring an explicit parametric form, called Histories and Observables for Monte-Carlo Event Reweighting (HOMER), consisting of three steps: the training of a classifier between simulation and data, the inference of single fragmentation weights, and the calculation of the weight for the full hadronization chain. We illustrate the use of HOMER on a simplified hadronization problem, a q\bar{q} q q ‾ string fragmenting into pions, and extract a modified Lund string fragmentation function f(z) f ( z ) . We then demonstrate the use of HOMER on three types of experimental data: (i) binned distributions of high-level observables, (ii) unbinned event-by-event distributions of these observables, and (iii) full particle cloud information. After demonstrating that f(z) f ( z ) can be extracted from data (the inverse of hadronization), we also show that, at least in this limited setup, the fidelity of the extracted f(z) f ( z ) suffers only limited loss when moving from (i) to (ii) to (iii). Public code is available at https://gitlab.com/uchep/mlhad.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

A numerical study of rays in random media

Statistics of electromagnetic rays in a random medium are studied numerically by the Monte Carlo method. Two dimensional random surfaces with prescribed correlation functions are used to simulate the random media. Rays are then traced in these sample media. Statistics of the ray properties such as the ray positions and directions are computed. Histograms showing the distributions of the ray positions and directions at different points along the ray path as well as at given points in space are given. The numerical experiment is repeated for different cases corresponding to weakly and strongly random media with isotropic and anisotropic irregularities. Results are compared with those derived from theoretical investigations whenever possible.

Youakim, M. Y.↗

Close-mode identification performance of the ITD algorithm

Results of Monte Carlo numerical simulations conducted to study the close-mode performance of the Ibrahim Time-Domain (ITD) modal identification algorithm are presented. The ITD technique is a matrix eigensolution method for obtaining structural modal parameters directly from free-response test data without using the FFT. Thus, the well-known resolution and leakage limitations of the FFT procedure, that are particularly significant with short records, are avoided. As an example, one of several experimental data analyses where close modes have been accurately identified using very short records is shown. Although the identification scatter is found to increase as the square of reductions in frequency separation at small separations, the ability to differentiate modes spaced at fractions of the FFT resolution is substantiated.

Pappa, R. S.↗

A New Method for Estimating the Single Scattering Phase Functions of Regolith Grains

Hapke's photometric model has been widely used in solar system remote sensing applications for nearly two decades. Recently, Hapke extended his model to describe the coherent-backscatter opposition effect and multiple-scattering by particles with anisotropic single particle phase functions (SPPF's). A practical difficulty for retrieving Hapke's model parameters from typical planet, satellite, and asteroid photometry data sets is that the model employs a large number of adjustable parameters (at least eight) that can be reliably constrained only for a small number of planetary data sets in which both disk-resolved and whole-disk observations are available from opposition to very large phase angles. The present work aims to reduce the number of adjustable parameters and preserve (or even enhance) the model's accuracy and usefulness by expressing Hapke's parameters in terms of more fundamental physical properties on which they mutually depend. The most difficult part of this task, described here, is to develop a simple method for computing the effective SPPF for structurally complex regolith grains from optical constants, grain-size distribution, and average regolith porosity. The development of light-scattering models for irregularly shaped particles is a large, complex subject and many sophisticated methods, such as Discrete Dipole Approximation (DDA) and Monte-Carlo simulations, have been explored elsewhere. Many of these methods are computationally intensive and probably impractical for routine substitution in Hapke's model. Here, progress is reported in developing a practical, semi-empirical method for estimating the directional scattering behavior (i.e. SPPF) of irregular regolith grains. The method employs Optical Transfer Function (OTF) techniques to model how the structural complexity of regolith particles broaden and attenuate the angular distribution of scattered light relative to that expected from ideal spherical particles of equivalent size and composition.

Helfenstein, P.↗

Kinetic simulations of ignited mode cesium vapor thermionic converters

Cesium vapor thermionic converters are an attractive method of converting high-temperature heat directly to electricity, but theoretical descriptions of the systems have been difficult due to the multi-step ionization of Cs through inelastic electron–neutral collisions. This work presents particle-in-cell simulations of these converters, using a direct simulation Monte Carlo collision model to track 52 excited states of Cs. Here, these simulations show the dominant role of multi-step ionization, which also varies significantly based on both the applied voltage bias and pressure. The electron energy distribution functions are shown to be highly non-Maxwellian in the cases analyzed here. A comparison with previous approaches is presented, and large differences are found in ionization rates due especially to the fact that previous approaches have assumed Maxwellian electron distributions. Finally, an open question regarding the nature of the plasma sheaths in the obstructed regime is discussed. The one-dimensional simulations did not produce stable obstructed regime operation and thereby do not support the double-sheath hypothesis.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗