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DOE OSTI2016

Statistical Study of Primary Knock-on Atoms under Neutron Irradiation in RMC Code

Materials in high flux neutron condition will suffer from an evolution of damage which ultimately restricts the lifetime of the fuel clad and reactor pressure vessel. Atoms in irradiated material transform to primary knock-on atoms (PKAs) by absorbing the kinetic energy transferred from neutrons, and the energy released from nuclear reactions. The secondary collision cascades which are induced by PKAs create point defects within the material, with residual vacancies and interstitials eventually causing swelling and embrittlement that degrades mechanical behavior. For a long time, Displacements per Atom (DPA) index has been identified as a measure of radiation damage in material. Nowadays, several advanced methods, such as Molecular Dynamics (MD) and Kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC) simulations, have been developed for more accurately simulating the evolution of the damage. However, all of these techniques need more comprehensive information of PKA, such as the type, energy, direction and spatial distribution. The limitations of DPA emerge and a method should be provided to simulate the generative process of PKAs. Recently, a deterministic analysis code SPECTRA-PKA has been developed by Gilbert to calculate the energy spectra of almost all types PKAs by solving the group-to-group cross-section matrices equation which includes neutron scattering, light charged particles, and recoils of the residual nuclei. But this deterministic analysis code could not give the direction, spatial and time distribution of PKAs. Based on the Geant4 program, Cui Zhenguo has simulated the irradiation by neutrons with 1 MeV energy in zirconium, while only the two adjacent elastic collisions between injected neutron and target atoms are taken into consideration. In this paper, Monte Carlo method to calculate PKAs information during neutron transport in RMC code is introduced. RMC is a continuous-energy Reactor Monte Carlo neutron and photon transport code being developed by Department of Engineering Physics at Tsinghua University, Beijing. PKAs in zirconium are calculated in fixed neutron source mode. Statistical information of PKAs in PWR fuel cell and SFR fuel cell is shown and compared. The results show that Monte Carlo method can provide more comprehensive information of PKAs. (authors)

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Development of a Griffin model of the advanced test reactor

In the pursuit of a higher fidelity deterministic simulation capability of the Advanced Test Reactor, it is important to have a fast yet accurate deterministic neutronics model. Here, to achieve this, we employed an advanced two-step method. The first step involves generating homogenized cross sections using OpenMC, a cutting-edge Monte Carlo neutron transport code. OpenMC offers excellent modular capabilities, allowing for easy component integration and flexibility in incorporating new designs into the model. The second step involves deterministic transport calculations, which are performed using Griffin, a reactor physics application based on the Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE). To ensure the accurate spatial resolution and assignment of material cross sections, a Cubit-generated mesh for the Advanced Test Reactor is utilized as an intermediate step between the OpenMC and Griffin models; Griffin utilizes the mesh for its finite element solution, while OpenMC material identifications are written to the mesh file to be used in Griffin material assignments. Additionally, a Python-based script converts the cross sections generated by OpenMC into the ISOXML format required by Griffin. Initial comparisons using the Griffin diffusion solver indicated good agreement between the neutron multiplication factors obtained from the standalone OpenMC model and the Griffin model, with differences of less than 10 pcm in the 2D geometry configuration; it was later determined that this agreement was likely due to compensating effect and was more likely on the order of –700 pcm relative to the OpenMC solution. However, in three-dimensional calculations, an unacceptably large error (almost 8,000 pcm) was found in the Griffin solution with the diffusion solver. Subsequent calculations using Griffin’s discrete ordinates solver demonstrated substantially improved agreement, within 116 pcm of the OpenMC solution used to generate the cross sections for Griffin. Building on this capability, future work will seek to perform more detailed validation calculations. The ultimate goal is to evaluate both transient and multiphysics simulations of the reactor.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2017

Deterministic direct aperture optimization using multiphase piecewise constant segmentation

Purpose Direct aperture optimization (DAO) attempts to incorporate machine constraints in the inverse optimization to eliminate the post‐processing steps in fluence map optimization (FMO) that degrade plan quality. Current commercial DAO methods utilize a stochastic or greedy approach to search a small aperture solution space. In this study, we propose a novel deterministic direct aperture optimization that integrates the segmentation of fluence map in the optimization problem using the multiphase piecewise constant Mumford‐Shah formulation. Methods The Mumford‐Shah based direct aperture optimization problem was formulated to include an L2‐norm dose fidelity term to penalize differences between the projected dose and the prescribed dose, an anisotropic total variation term to promote piecewise continuity in the fluence maps, and the multiphase piecewise constant Mumford‐Shah function to partition the fluence into pairwise discrete segments. A proximal‐class, first‐order primal‐dual solver was implemented to solve the large scale optimization problem, and an alternating module strategy was implemented to update fluence and delivery segments. Three patients of varying complexity—one glioblastoma multiforme (GBM) patient, one lung (LNG) patient, and one bilateral head and neck (H&N) patient with 3 PTVs—were selected to test the new DAO method. For each patient, 20 non‐coplanar beams were first selected using column generation, followed by the Mumford‐Shah based DAO (DAO MS ). For comparison, a popular and successful approach to DAO known as simulated annealing—a stochastic approach—was replicated. The simulated annealing DAO (DAO SA ) plans were then created using the same beam angles and maximum number of segments per beam. PTV coverage, PTV homogeneity , and OAR sparing were assessed for each plan. In addition, high dose spillage, defined as the 50% isodose volume divided by the tumor volume, as well as conformity, defined as the van't Riet conformation number, were evaluated. Results DAO MS achieved essentially the same OAR doses compared with the DAO SA plans for the GBM case. The average difference of OAR D max and D mean between the two plans were within 0.05% of the plan prescription dose. The lung case showed slightly improved critical structure sparing using the DAO MS approach, where the average OAR D max and D mean were reduced by 3.67% and 1.08%, respectively, of the prescription dose. The DAO MS plan substantially improved OAR dose sparing for the H&N patient, where the average OAR D max and D mean were reduced by over 10% of the prescription dose. The DAO MS and DAO SA plans were comparable for the GBM and LNG PTV coverage, while the DAO MS plan substantially improved the H&N PTV coverage, increasing D99 by 6.98% of the prescription dose. For the GBM and LNG patients, the DAO MS and DAO SA plans had comparable high dose spillage but slightly worse conformity with the DAO MS approach. For the H&N plan, DAO MS was considerably superior in high dose spillage and conformity to the DAO SA . The deterministic approach is able to solve the DAO problem substantially faster than the simulated annealing approach, with a 9.5‐ to 40‐fold decrease in total solve time, depending on the patient case. Conclusions A novel deterministic direct aperture optimization formulation was developed and evaluated. It combines fluence map optimization and the multiphase piecewise constant Mumford‐Shah segmentation into a unified framework, and the resulting optimization problem can be solved efficiently. Compared to the widely and commercially used simulated annealing DAO approach, it showed comparable dosimetry behavior for simple plans, and substantially improved OAR sparing, PTV coverage, PTV homogeneity, high dose spillage, and conformity for the more complex head and neck plan.

Nguyen, Dan↗

DOE OSTI2025

Serpent - Bison - THM Preliminary Multiphysics Modeling of a Nuclear Thermal Propulsion System Fuel Assembly

This work demonstrates the Monte Carlo neutronic and Thermo-Hydraulic coupling scheme using the Serpent code and MOOSE application Bison and Thermo Hydraulic Module. The coupling scheme is then applied to the reference BWX Technologies Nuclear Ther- mal Propulsion system at he fuel assembly level where it’s used to perform an analysis of the isothermal material coefficients and potential material reactivity worth. A method is developed to isolate which feedback effects should be considered for proceeding with reduced order deterministic neutronic modeling where branch off analysis must be con- ducted. The convergence behavior of the coupling scheme is demonstrated where it fol- lows the standard Picard iteration approach. Verification studies for the method of deduc- ing relevant feedback effects is also demonstrated.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Comprehensive assessment of deep reinforcement learning approaches for economic dispatch in nuclear-driven microgrids

As the electrical grid integrates more variable renewable energy sources such as wind and solar, the demand for distributed and flexible systems to address this increased variability becomes critical. Nuclear-driven microgrids provide a promising solution by offering stable generation to complement intermittent renewables, ensuring grid reliability and operating efficiency. This paper proposes a recurrent deep reinforcement learning framework for optimal economic dispatch in a nuclear-powered microgrid integrating renewable energy sources, small modular reactors, battery storage systems, and balance-of-plant dynamics. A three-agent control architecture is developed, where demand and renewable energy agents act as forecasters, and a reinforcement learning-based dispatch agent performs real-time energy allocation. A nonlinear programming formulation is first used to generate an optimal baseline for benchmarking. The proposed dispatch controller, based on Proximal Policy Optimization enhanced with Long Short-Term Memory networks, exploits temporal correlations in system dynamics by taking advantage of the time series used as inputs to improve policy robustness under uncertainty. Comparative analysis against established deep reinforcement learning methods, including Proximal Policy Optimization with a feedforward architecture, Soft Actor-Critic, and Twin Delayed Deep Deterministic Policy Gradient, demonstrates superior performance. Numerical results indicate that the proposed controller achieves a 0.39% cost reduction relative to the nonlinear programming benchmark and outperforms other learning-based methods by generating additional revenue of up to 0.35%. All reinforcement learning controllers compute dispatch actions in less than 0.3 s, resulting in a computational speedup of more than three orders of magnitude over the nonlinear programming baseline. The findings of this paper highlight their applicability for real-time operation and control in nuclear-integrated microgrids under volatile operating conditions.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2018

Risk-Informed Analysis of Accidents at Reactor Facilities with VVER

An accident with ‘rupture of steam line’ as the initial event was studied for a reactor facility with VVER-1000. A computational analysis was performed of different flow scenarios of an accident with singular and multiple failures of the safety systems. The realization probability and the consequences were evaluated for each accident sequence. The consequences of the accidents are ranked and the most instructive combinations of failures of systems and blockings are determined from the standpoint of risk. The presented method is based on multivariate calculations and an integrated combination of deterministic and probabilistic approaches to safety validation.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2018

Combining Push-Forward Measures and Bayes' Rule to Construct Consistent Solutions to Stochastic Inverse Problems

We formulate, and present a numerical method for solving, an inverse problem for inferring parameters of a deterministic model from stochastic observational data on quantities of interest. The solution, given as a probability measure, is derived using a Bayesian updating approach for measurable maps that finds a posterior probability measure, that when propagated through the deterministic model produces a push-forward measure that exactly matches the observed probability measure on the data. Our approach for finding such posterior measures, which we call consistent Bayesian inference or push-forward based inference, is simple and only requires the computation of the push-forward probability measure induced by the combination of a prior probability measure and the deterministic model. We establish existence and uniqueness of observation-consistent posteriors and present both stability and error analyses. We also discuss the relationships between consistent Bayesian inference, classical/statistical Bayesian inference, and a recently developed measure-theoretic approach for inference. Finally, analytical and numerical results are presented to highlight certain properties of the consistent Bayesian approach and the differences between this approach and the two aforementioned alternatives for inference.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2017

Robust Reconfiguration of A Distribution System

In this paper, a robust reconfiguration approach based on Mixed Integer Programming (MIP) is proposed to minimize loss in distribution systems. A Depth-First Search (DFS) algorithm to enumerate possible loops provides radiality constraint. This provides a general solution to the radiality constraint for distribution system reconfiguration/expansion problems. Still, imprecision and ambiguity in net loads, i.e. load minus renewable generation, due to lack of sufficient measurements and high utilization of demand response programs and renewable resources, creates challenges for effective reconfiguration. Deterministic optimization of reconfiguration may no lead to optimal/feasible results. Two methods to address these uncertainties are introduced in this paper: one, based on a stochastic MIP (SMIP) formulation and two, based on a fuzzy MIP (FMIP) formulation. Case studies demonstrate the robustness and efficiency of the proposed reconfiguration methods.

Depth-First Search (DFS)↗

DOE OSTI2016

Implementation of a Red-Black SOR CMFD Solver in MPACT

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2017

Flexible Spatial Partitions in MPACT Through Module-Based Data Passing

As part of the Consortium for Advanced Simulation of Light Water Reactors (CASL), the Virtual Environment for Reactor Applications (VERA) is being developed to provide high-fidelity multiphysics simulations of nuclear reactor cores. The MPACT code being developed collaboratively by Oak Ridge National Laboratory and the University of Michigan is the primary deterministic neutron transport solver available within VERA. MPACT employs the 2D/1D method to solve 3D problems using 2D method of characteristics (MOC) radial transport solvers with 1D nodal expansion method-based P3 (NEM-P3) axial transport solvers, which are coupled using axial and radial transverse leakages. A 3D coarse mesh finite difference (CMFD) solver is used to provide accelerated convergence and stability. Quarter-core problems in MPACT are typically run on moderately sized clusters ({approx}500-10,000 cores). As such, it relies heavily on spatial decomposition, both radially and axially, using MPI data communication along spatial domain boundaries to pass angular flux boundary condition and neighboring data. The initial spatial decomposition strategy implemented into MPACT overlaid a Cartesian grid over the core to form the domain boundaries. With this approach, a single buffer spanning across the entire boundary between two spatial domains is passed to a domain's neighbor. Additionally, only one neighboring domain index was allowed in each direction. For example, the entire eastern boundary of a domain must be the entire western boundary of the corresponding neighbour's domain. This implementation helped to execute cases on several thousand cores, where substantial radial decomposition was used. The default for several years was to use assembly decomposition, which yielded 73 radial partitions in the Watts Bar Unit 1 (WBN1) models being analyzed. However, as CASL formed stronger connections with industry partners, there was a strong push to allow MPACT to run on fewer cores, preferably in the 500-1,000 core range. Such cases require much less radial decomposition, typically with 8-16 radial domains on each plane. Unfortunately, the previous decomposition strategy is very limited in its ability to yield well-balanced domains, and it does not permit partitions with an arbitrary number of domains, particularly with small numbers of radial domains (3, 5, 7, 11, 13, etc.). With these limitations, a more flexible approach that provided more even-load balancing was needed. The details of this new strategy are outlined here, along with insights to its advantages. The examples provided are for the WBN1 core, which has been the focus of several initial CASL analyses. It is worth noting that spatial decomposition strategies have been employed in many codes with focus on a number of different transport methodologies. The references cited are not exhaustive as this has been very important research topic across many areas.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Offline Maximizing Minimally Invasive Proper Orthogonal Decomposition for Reduced-Order Modeling of S n Radiation Transport

Deterministic solutions to the Sn radiation transport equation can be computationally expensive to calculate. Reduced-order modeling enables efficient approximation of the full-order model (FOM) solution. We propose a novel method for constructing reduced-order models (ROMs) of the S n radiation transport equation, offline maximizing minimally invasive (OMMI) proper orthogonal decomposition (POD). POD uses the method of snapshots to create a reduced-order basis for constructing an ROM. Minimally invasive POD leverages the sweep infrastructure existing in deterministic transport codes to create a POD-based ROM, even when infeasible by traditional methods. Offline maximizing minimally invasive proper orthogonal decomposition (OMMI-POD) extends minimally invasive POD by performing sweeps offline, therefore maximizing the potential speedup. OMMI-POD does so by creating a library of reduced systems from a training set. This library of reduced systems is then interpolated to provide a rapid approximate solution of the S n radiation transport equation. The model is evaluated on a set of test problems, achieving a low error with a 466 times speedup over the FOM. Also presented is a study of the effect of sampling method on the performance of OMMI-POD, specifically comparing naive uniform sampling to the more accurate and computationally expensive greedy sampling.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2014

Comparison of ADVANTG Simulations to Simple Shielding Measurements - Paper 36

Monte Carlo (MC) radiation transport simulations, like those performed using Monte Carlo N-Particle (MCNP), can be highly accurate but require time to reduce the statistical uncertainties in the calculated detector response(s). Many different 'variance reduction' techniques devised over the years increase the efficiency of MC calculations, but these methods can be more art than science. Many of these methods are problem specific or require careful tuning of parameters for good performance. One of the best variance reduction methods, in terms of both reliable performance increases and ease of use, is the use of weight windows. Weight windows are derived from an importance map in space and energy that allows the transport code to focus more simulation time on particles that have a higher likelihood of being important to the final detector response. Less time is spent simulating particles that have little chance of making a contribution to the detector response. MCNP already includes the abilities to generate and use weight windows. Unfortunately, generating weight windows can take a very long time, perhaps longer than the original problem. Oak Ridge National Laboratory has led the development of hybrid methods using a discrete ordinates adjoint calculation to quickly develop an importance map (weight windows) for use in a Monte Carlo code. The Consistent Adjoint Driven Importance Sampling (CADIS) method uses an adjoint calculation to develop both an importance map and a biased source distribution that work together. This method is reasonably automatic, is easy to use, and has been implemented in the Automated Variance reduction Generator (ADVANTG) package that works with MCNP5. ADVANTG reads an MCNP input file and a small amount of extra user information and then runs an adjoint deterministic calculation using Denovo. The importance map and biased source distribution derived from the CADIS method can then be incorporated back into the original MCNP input file to enhance the figure-of-merit (FOM) of the calculation. The FOM is a measure of the efficiency of the calculation using the amount of run time and corresponding level of statistical uncertainty in the detector result. ADVANTG-enhanced MCNP input files have been shown to increase the FOM of many types of problems, obtaining the same level of statistical uncertainty in a shorter time compared to standard MCNP. ADVANTG can also generate variance reduction parameters (importance map and biased source) using the Forward-Weighted CADIS (FW-CADIS) method for optimizing mesh tallies. The CADIS method creates variance reduction parameters that optimize a tally's total quantity (flux, dose rate, interaction rate, etc.) and will not generally increase performance for all parts of a segmented tally. To optimize a segmented tally, the FW-CADIS method uses two discrete ordinates calculations to make variance reduction parameters that help compute a segmented tally with uniform relative uncertainties in each bin. This report will demonstrate that using ADVANTG for neutron and photon radiation shielding problems will (1) preserve the standard MCNP results and (2) obtain those results either with less statistical uncertainty or in shorter times than the standard MCNP calculation. The four demonstration problems in this report are based on simple neutron or photon transmission measurements through different materials. All of the problems here used the CADIS method and still saw improvement across the flux tallies segmented by particle energy. (authors)

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

DOE OSTI2017

Phase 2: Updated Geothermal Play Fairway Analysis of the Tularosa Basin, New Mexico

Play fairway analysis (PFA) methodologies, both deterministic and stochastic, are being applied for medium to low enthalpy geothermal resources in the Tularosa Basin, in south-central New Mexico. These PFA methods use datasets representative of heat, groundwater and fault-fracture related permeability to locate areas with the lowest risk of geothermal energy development. Our Phase 1 PFAs predicted several plays throughout the study area, with a range of certainty and risk, based upon legacy data. In Phase 2, new data were collected for high priority plays and integrated into the PFAs to enhance certainty and further reduce risk. Field geology, gravity surveys and alluvial fan geomorphology supplemented the understanding of geologic structure and potential permeability, while additional well sampling, geothermometry and temperature logging provided valuable information about heat in the subsurface. In order to statistically compare and contrast the layers of evidence in the Tularosa Basin with the broader Great Basin, a probabilistic Weights of Evidence analysis was conducted in parallel with the inclusive and deterministic petroleum industry logic PFA. Both methods yielded 3 similar plays, while Weights of Evidence identified 2 additional plays. A sixth play was inferred around the NASA-Aerospace Data Facility Southwest site, north-east of Las Cruces, based on a promising shallow temperature survey, geothermometers, and structural interpretations of geophysical data. Here, the White Sands Missile Range main cantonment (headquarters) play is now given high priority, along with McGregor Range, Fort Bliss, due to the discovery of relatively high geothermometer values.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Convergence Analysis of Fixed Point Chance Constrained Optimal Power Flow Problems

For optimal power flow problems with chance constraints, a particularly effective method is based on a fixed point iteration applied to a sequence of deterministic power flow problems. However, a priori, the convergence of such an approach is not necessarily guaranteed. Here this article analyses the convergence conditions for this fixed point approach, and reports numerical experiments including for large IEEE networks.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2020

Allocation and Operation of A Hydropneumatic Energy Storage with Building Microgrid

Behind-meter application for a recently invented hydropneumatic Ground-Level Integrated Diverse Energy Storage (GLIDES) is focused in this research. Considering possible uncertainties from solar radiation and electricity load in a building microgrid, two-stage stochastic programming is adopted for 15-min operation and a mixed-integer nonlinear stochastic model is built with integrated energy systems of GLIDES, solar panel and power generating unit. In order to make the model computationally tractable, we use sample average approximate method to decrease associated complexity with sample size and improve solving efficiency. The experimental results in deterministic and stochastic operation indicate that best candidate solution from SAA are superior to the solution from expected value problem in terms of optimality gap and variance.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2017

Some Results of Multicriterial and Robust Optimization of Nuclear Power Systems Structure

The possibility of applying multicriterial and robust optimization methods as well as stochastic methods of determining the effect of uncertainties in the parameters of a system to structural optimization of nuclear power is discussed for the example of a hypothetical nuclear-power system consisting of thermal and fast reactors. It is shown that the optimal structures of nuclear power systems obtained by such methods are balanced in terms of conflicting criteria and technologically more diversified than those determined by single-criterion deterministic optimization. Cost-based innovative technologies, which can be adopted only by imposing additional external limitations in a single-criterion problem, appear in such structures. The examined methods make it possible to determine on a systematic basis the structures of nuclear power that are balanced in terms of a set of conflicting criteria, since factors having both positive and negative effects on the development of nuclear-power systems are included in the calculations, and to find economically efficient directions of structural changes in the system in order to improve stability and efficiency.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Operational Probabilistic Tools for Solar Uncertainty (OPTSUN) (Final Project Report for DOE Solar Forecasting II Project)

Increasing levels of solar PV can challenge system operations and may require novel methods to operate the power system reliably and efficiently. Power system operating plans generally use deterministic forecasts, in which the variable energy resources are represented by the expected value for each interval of the decision horizon. Probabilistic forecasts are relatively new but have the potential to address the shortfalls of deterministic forecasts. However, understanding how best to use such forecasts is still a key gap in industry and was the focus of this project. The project had three workstreams. In a forecasting workstream, improvements were made to baseline probabilistic forecasts using a number of new approaches such as machine learning methods and improved input data. In a design workstream, advanced simulation tools used these forecasts to investigate newly proposed reserve determination methods. Lastly, in a demonstration workstream a scheduling management platform (SMP) was developed to leverage probabilistic forecasts in a modular and customizable manner. In order to study the benefits that could be accrued, the project team collaborated with three utility partners (Duke Energy, Southern Company and Hawaiian Electric) to deliver improved probabilistic forecasts for each region and to model each region in case studies using advanced production cost modeling tools. Different methods to determine operating reserve requirements from probabilistic forecasts were developed, simulated, and tested across each region. The benefits of using these newly proposed methods varied by utility, but, in general, using probabilistic forecasts as well as historical data to set the reserve requirements seems to improve reliability related results, with less risk of reserve or supply shortfalls. The cost implications were not always straightforward; in some cases the new methods could show a reduction in expected operating costs, but often the increase in reserves associated with better risk mitigation using probabilistic forecasts could result in an increase in operating costs in the simulations. The SMP tool was developed to process probabilistic forecasts from their initial receipt through to scheduling decisions. This open-source tool consists of several modules for scenario development, reserve requirements calculation, and visualization. The SMP tool was demonstrated to a wide range of operators and stakeholders at all three utilities and further improved based on their feedback. The tool will be available on www.epri.com/optsun. The proposed probabilistic information-based reserve determination approaches have the potential to be implemented by different regions to ensure an economic and reliable power system operation on power systems integrating increasing levels of variable renewable resources. The innovative yet practical methods developed in this project demonstrated tangible benefits from using probabilistic forecasts beyond just study-based assessments to include three unique balancing areas. The demonstrated benefits across the multiple utility environments, are expected to provide system operators in all regions the confidence required and a platform to adopt the new forecasting and operating methods.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Tensor decompositions for count data that leverage stochastic and deterministic optimization

There is growing interest to extend low-rank matrix decompositions to multi-way arrays, or tensors. One fundamental low-rank tensor decomposition is the canonical polyadic decomposition (CPD). The challenge of fitting a low-rank, nonnegative CPD model to Poisson-distributed count data is of particular interest. Several popular algorithms use local search methods to approximate the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) of the Poisson CPD model. Here, this work presents two new algorithms that extend state-of-the-art local methods for Poisson CPD. Hybrid GCP-CPAPR combines Generalized Canonical Decomposition (GCP) with stochastic optimization and CP Alternating Poisson Regression (CPAPR), a deterministic algorithm, to increase the probability of converging to the MLE over either method used alone. Restarted CPAPR with SVDrop uses a heuristic based on the singular values of the CPD model unfoldings to identify convergence toward optimizers that are not the MLE and restarts within the feasible domain of the optimization problem, thus reducing overall computational cost when using a multi-start strategy. We provide empirical evidence that indicates our approaches outperform existing methods with respect to converging to the Poisson CPD MLE.

CPAPR↗