A Zone-Based Model for Analysis of Dependent Failures in Requirements Inspection
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Computer Science↗
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Results for “dependability modeling”
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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Mitigating chemical stiffness in turbulent reacting flow simulations via an adaptive reduced-order model with time-dependent bases
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Jung, Kisung↗
A Thick-Target Bremsstrahlung Model with Angularly-Dependent Emission in the MCNP6 Code
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97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Assessing time-dependent temperature profile predictions using reduced transport models for high performing NSTX plasmas
Time-dependent, predictive simulations were performed with the 1.5D tokamak integrated modeling code TRANSP on a large set of well-analyzed, high performing discharges from the National Spherical Torus Experiment (NSTX) in order to evaluate how well modern reduced transport models can reproduce experimentally observed temperature profiles in spherical tokamaks. Overall, it is found that simulations using the Multi-Mode Model (MMM) more consistently agree with the NSTX observations than those using the Trapped Gyro-Landau Fluid (TGLF) model, despite TGLF requiring orders of magnitude greater computational cost. When considering all examined discharges, MMM has median overpredictions of electron temperature (T e ) and ion temperature (T i ) profiles of 28% and 27%, respectively, relative to the experiment. TGLF overpredicts T e by 46%, with much larger variance than MMM, and underpredicts T i by 25%. As the ratio of kinetic to magnetic field pressure (β) is increased across NSTX discharges, TGLF predicts lower T e and significant flattening of the T i profile, conflicting with NSTX observations. When using an electrostatic version of TGLF, both T e and T i are substantially overpredicted, underscoring the importance of electromagnetic turbulence in the high β spherical tokamak regime. Additionally, calculations with neural net surrogate models for TGLF were performed outside of TRANSP with a time slice flux matching transport solver, finding better agreement with experiment than the TRANSP simulations, highlighting the impact of different transport solvers and simulation techniques. Furthermore, the reasonable agreement with experiment of temperature profiles predicted by MMM motivates a more detailed examination of the sensitivities of the TRANSP simulations with MMM to different NSTX plasma regimes in a companion paper (Lestz et al Plasma Phys. Control. Fusion 67 105030), in preparation for self-consistent, time-dependent predictive modeling of NSTX-U scenarios.
Lestz, J. B. [General Atomics, San Diego, CA (Unit↗
Choices in land representation materially affect modeled biofuel carbon intensity estimates
Estimates of biofuel carbon intensity are uncertain and depend on modeled land use change (LUC) emissions. While analysts have focused on economic and agronomic assumptions affecting the quantity of land converted, researchers have paid less attention to how models classify land into broad categories and designate some categories as ineligible for LUC. To explore the effect of these land representation attributes, we use three versions of a global human and Earth systems model, GCAM, and compute the “carbon intensity of land-use change” (CI-LUC) from increased U.S. corn ethanol production. We consider uncertainty in model parameters along with the choice of land representation and find the latter is one of the most influential parameters on estimated CI-LUC. A version of the model that protects 90% of non-commercial land reduced estimated CI-LUC by an average of 32% across Monte Carlo trials compared to our baseline model. Another version that mimics the GTAP-BIO-ADV land representation, which protects all non-commercial land, reduced CI-LUC by an average of 19%. The results of this experiment suggest that analyses of LUC that exclude non-commercial land categories or assume more land is protected than empirically justified underestimate biofuel induced LUC GHG emissions.
09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
Model study of the energy dependence of the correlation between anisotropic flow and the mean transverse momentum in Au + Au collisions
A hybrid model that employs the hadron-string transport model UrQMD and the (3+1)-dimensional relativistic viscous hydrodynamic code vHLLE, is used to investigate the beam energy dependence of the correlation coefficient ρ(v$^{2}_{2}$,[p T ]) between the average transverse momentum [p T ] of hadrons emitted in an event and the square of the anisotropic flow coefficient v$^{2}_{2}$. For Au+Au collisions, the model predicts characteristic patterns for the energy and event-shape dependence of the variances for [p T ] and v$^{2}_{n}$ [Var([p T ] and Var(v$^{2}_{2}$)], and the covariance of v$^{2}_{n}$ and [p T ][cov(v$^{2}_{2}$,[p T ])], consistent with the attenuation effects of the specific shear viscosity η/s. Here in contrast, ρ(v$^{2}_{2}$,[p T ]) is predicted to be insensitive to the beam energy but sensitive to the initial-state geometry of the collisions. These observations suggest that a precise set of measurements for Var([p T ]), Var(v$^{2}_{2}$), cov(v$^{2}_{2}$,[p T ]) and ρ(v$^{2}_{2}$,[p T ]) as a function of beam energy and event shape, could serve to constrain better the eccentricities and their fluctuations over the entire span of beam energies, and consequently aid precision extraction of the temperature and baryon chemical-potential dependence of η/s from the wealth of Au+Au data obtained in the RHIC beam energy scan.
73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
The impacts of horizontal resolution on the seasonally-dependent biases of the northeastern Pacific ITCZ in coupled climate models.
Double-ITCZ has puzzled climate model community for more than two decades. Here, we found that over the eastern Pacific, precipitation and sea surface temperature (SST) biases in the NCAR CESM1 are seasonally-dependent, with positive (negative) precipitation/SST biases during boreal summer/fall (winter/spring), although the easterly wind bias persists around the year. This seasonally-dependent bias of precipitation/SST is found to be caused by the failure of the model to reproduce the climatological seasonal wind reversal of North American monsoon. During winter/spring, the climatological easterly wind dominates, so the stronger wind speed in the model enhances the evaporation and lowers the SST. It is opposite when the climatological wind turns to westerly during summer/fall. The easterly wind bias also occurs in the atmospheric model when the observation SST is prescribed, suggesting it is of atmospheric origin. Further, the easterly wind bias is mainly evident in the lower troposphere and quite independent of time, implying the effect of complex and narrow-ranged Central American topography, which is not depicted well in the coarse model resolution. When the model resolution is doubled, both SST and precipitation are improved with the reduced easterly wind bias. During boreal spring, when ITCZ bias is most significant, the northern and southern ITCZ can be improved by 29% and 18.8% respectively in the higher resolution. Finally, we suggest that these seasonally-dependent biases over the eastern Pacific are quite universal among 37 CMIP5 coupled models, and the ongoing CMIP6 project will provide a valuable opportunity to examine whether the bias can be reduced by increasing model resolution.
Song, Fengfei↗
a priori uncertainty quantification of reacting turbulence closure models using Bayesian neural networks
While many physics-based closure model forms have been posited for the sub-filter scale (SFS) in large eddy simulation (LES), vast amounts of data available from direct numerical simulations (DNS) create opportunities to leverage data-driven modeling techniques. Albeit flexible, data-driven models still depend on the dataset and the functional form of the model chosen. Increased adoption of such models requires reliable uncertainty estimates both in the data-informed and out-of-distribution regimes. Here, in this work, we employ Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) to capture both epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties in a reacting flow model. In particular, we model the filtered progress variable scalar dissipation rate which plays a key role in the dynamics of turbulent premixed flames. We demonstrate that BNN models can provide unique insights about the structure of uncertainty of the data-driven closure models. We also propose a method for the incorporation of out-of-distribution information in a BNN, which can be used for out-of-distribution query detection. The efficacy of the model is demonstrated by a priori evaluation on a dataset consisting of a variety of flame conditions and fuels.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Band gap predictions of double perovskite oxides using machine learning
Abstract The compositional and structural variety inherent to oxide perovskites spawn wide-ranging applications. In perovskites, the band gap E g , a key material parameter for these applications, can be optimally controlled by varying the composition. Here, we implement a hierarchical screening process in which two cross-validated and predictive machine learning models for band gap classification and regression, trained using exhaustive datasets that span 68 elements of the periodic table, are applied sequentially. The classification model separates wide band gap materials, with E g ≥ 0.5 eV, from materials which have zero or relatively small band gaps, namely E g < 0.5 eV, and the second regression model quantitatively predicts the gap value of the wide band gap compounds. The study down-selects 13,589 cubic oxide perovskite compositions that are predicted to be experimentally formable, thermodynamically stable, and have a wide band gap. Of these, a subset of 310 compounds, which are predicted to be stable and formable with a confidence greater than 90%, are identified for further investigation. Our models are methodically analyzed via performance metrics and inter-dependence of model features to gain physical insight into the band gap prediction problem. Design maps to identify the variation of band gap with substitution of different elements are also presented.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
Analysis of Building Model Forecasts using Autonomous HVAC Optimization System for Residential Neighborhood
Heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems account for the highest share of home energy consumption in the United States. Optimized HVAC control can provide thermal improved comfort to the occupants, improve energy efficiency, reduce energy cost, and support grid services. In this paper, we discuss a multi-agent and cloud-based software framework that has been deployed in occupied residential neighborhood. This system enables automatic data collection, learning, optimization, and dispatches signals to neighborhood devices. HVAC optimization is based on model predictive control (MPC). Since the operational performance of MPC depends on model forecasting accuracy, it is crucial to evaluate the model continuously and modify or retrain it as necessary. In this research, we developed an automated workflow to evaluate the performance of temperature and power forecasts based on measured data in the real world. This will provide researchers with a deeper understanding of the model and how it can be improved.
Lebakula, Viswadeep↗
Multiscale Reduced Order Modeling and Parameter Estimation for Climate Sciences
Several problems in earth system modeling are dependent on highly multiscale phenomena, such as turbulence, where computational modeling is challenging and expensive. This issue is exacerbated in atmospheric and oceanic domains, due to inherent high-dimensionality of the problem. One approach to this problem has been reduced order modeling (ROM); which aims to represent the key physics of the phenomena as a low-dimensional system. AI methods have huge potential in building accurate, stable ROMs and parameter estimation for these ROMs, as it requires extracting nonlinearities and patterns from simulation and/or observational data. Developing physics-based AI approaches specialized for the complexities of multiscale data, along with strategies to account for uncertainties, will revolutionize rapid modeling, analysis and decision making for earth system problems of practical interest.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
Quantitative SANS and multi-model analysis of spacer-dependent micellization of urea-based gemini surfactants
The micellization behavior of urea-based cationic gemini surfactants was investigated using small-angle neutron scattering (SANS) with multi-model form factor analysis. A homologous series of surfactants with urea group included in the hydrophobic tail and polymethylene spacers consisting of two to ten methylene units was analyzed using three form factor models: a core–shell ellipsoid and two variants of homogeneous ellipsoids. The results from all models show a consistent trend of the micelle structures, confirming that the spacer length critically influences micellar geometry, aggregation number, and hydration. The surfactant with four CH 2 groups in the spacer formed the largest micelles with the highest aggregation number, while longer spacers led to progressively smaller, more compact aggregates. The shell hydration—quantified as the volume fraction of heavy water within the hydrophilic region—decreased systematically with increasing spacer length due to enhanced hydrophobicity of the headgroup-spacer region. Intermicellar interactions, modeled as screened Coulomb interaction using the rescaled mean spherical approximation (RMSA), revealed the strongest electrostatic repulsion for the case of four methylene groups in the spacer, corresponding to the highest micellar charge and largest interparticle spacing. The observed spacer-dependent trends were robust across all modeling approaches, demonstrating that the spacer length serves as a key structural determinant of self-assembly in this type of urea-based gemini systems. These findings provide insight into the design of gemini surfactants with tailored aggregation behavior for applications in drug delivery, nanostructure templating, and solubilization technologies.
Core–shell ellipsoid model↗
Thermodynamic and electron transport properties of Ca 3 Ru 2 O 7 from first-principles phonon calculations and Boltzmann transport theory
Here, this work demonstrates a first-principles-based approach to obtaining finite temperature thermal and electronic transport properties which can be employed to model and understand mesoscale structural evolution during electronic, magnetic, and structural phase transitions. A computationally tractable model was introduced to estimate electron relaxation time and its temperature dependence. The model is applied to Ca 3 Ru 2 O 7 with a focus on understanding its electrical resistivity across the electronic phase transition at 48 K. A quasiharmonic phonon approach to the lattice vibrations was employed to account for thermal expansion while the Boltzmann transport theory including spin-orbit coupling was used to calculate the electron-transport properties, including the temperature dependence of electrical conductivity.
75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
Modeling gas migration through clay-based buffer material using coupled multiphase fluid flow and geomechanics with stress-dependent gas permeability
A model for gas migration through clay-based buffer material is developed for modeling gas generation and migration associated with deep geologic nuclear waste disposal. The model is based on a multiphase fluid flow and geomechanics simulator that is adapted to consider enhanced gas flow when gas pressure is high enough to approach the confining stress magnitude. A key feature in the model is a direct coupling between gas permeability and stress, through a non-linear stress-dependent permeability function. The model was first tested and calibrated by modelling two different laboratory gas migration tests on Wyoming (MX-80) bentonite samples. The calibrated model was then applied to model gas migration through a bentonite buffer of a large-scale gas injection test (Lasgit) conducted at the Äspö Hard Rock Laboratory in Sweden. Observed preferential gas migration along interfaces (between compacted blocks and along the canister surface) required explicit representation of such interfaces in the model. The model with the stress-dependent gas permeability accurately captured observed experimental responses in terms of gas breakthrough time, peak gas pressure, and cumulative gas flow rates. The calibrated model was finally applied to simulate migration of hydrogen gas generated within a breached nuclear waste canister over 10,000 years, involving migration of much larger gas volumes. For the considered gas generation rate and host rock properties, the generated gas could migrate through the bentonite buffer and released into the surrounding host rock at a maximum gas pressure somewhat higher than the initial total stress, though a significant amount of hydrogen remained within the buffer. This modelling sets the stage for further detailed analysis of the impact of hydrogen gas generation on the long-term performance of nuclear waste repositories.
12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
Thermal-Mechanical Elastic-Plastic and Ductile Failure Model Calibrations for 6061-T651 Aluminum Alloy from Plate
Numerical simulations of metallic structures undergoing rapid loading into the plastic range require material models that accurately represent the response. In general, the material response can be seen as having four interrelated parts: the baseline response under slow loading, the effect of strain rate, the conversion of plastic work into heat and the effect of temperature. In essence, the material behaves in a thermal-mechanical manner if the loading is fast enough so when heat is generated by plastic deformation it raises the temperature and therefore influences the mechanical response. In these cases, appropriate models that can capture the aspects listed above are necessary. The matters of interest here are the elastic-plastic response and ductile failure behavior of 6061-T651 aluminum alloy under the conditions described above. The work was accomplished by first designing and conducting a material test program to provide data for the calibration of a modular $J_2$ plasticity model with isotropic hardening as well as a ductile failure model. Both included modules that accounted for temperature and strain rate dependence. The models were coupled with an adiabatic heating module to calculate the temperature rise due to the conversion of plastic work to heat. The test program included uniaxial tension tests conducted at room temperature, 150 and 300 C and at strain rates between 10 –4 and 10 3 1/s as well as four geometries of notched tension specimens and two tests on specimens with shear-dominated deformations. The test data collected allowed the calibration of both the plasticity and the ductile failure models. Most test specimens were extracted from a single piece of plate to maintain consistency. Notched tension tests came from a possibly different plate, but from the same lot. When using the model in structural finite element calculations, element formulations and sizes different from those used to model the test specimens in the calibration are likely to be used. A brief investigation demonstrated that the failure model can be particularly sensitive to the element selection and provided an initial guide to compensate in a specific example.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
Advancing Multiscale Simulation of Plasma-Surface Interfaces
We report the development of an atomistic-informed, surface-state-dependent predictive model for particle exchange in a carbon-tungsten plasma-surface interface. The predictive model uses machine learning (ML) techniques to learn the energy and angular distributions for particle exchange and rate functions for surface state evolution from molecular dynamics simulations of cumulative bombardment of tungsten by energetic carbon ions. Each predictive component is sensitive to the energy and trajectory of incident plasma species and the surface state. The surface state is represented by a set of surface state descriptors, which were derived from the atomistic surface state for each independent carbon bombardment event. These descriptors are representative of the composition and degree of amorphization of the outermost angstrom of surface material and were chosen to optimize predictive performance for particle exchange at the interface. The distributions for particle exchange (reflection/sputtering) are demonstrated to vary with each surface state descriptor, motivating the development of surface-state-dependent particle exchange models for plasma simulations. The performance of various ML methods was compared, including polynomial quantile regression, artificial neural networks, k-nearest neighbors, and random forest algorithms, with polynomial regression performing the best for interpolation and extrapolation of learned relationships. In addition to the particle exchange model, a neutral network was developed and used to identify data sufficiency throughout surface descriptor space, which will enable real-time feedback during future data production to ensure data is produced where it is most needed, and we provide commentary on improvements to the data production workflow for future endeavors.
70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
An information-matching approach to optimal experimental design and active learning
The efficacy of mathematical models heavily depends on the quality of the training data, yet collecting sufficient data is often expensive and challenging. Many modeling applications require inferring parameters only as a means to predict other quantities of interest (QoI). Because models often contain many unidentifiable (sloppy) parameters, QoIs often depend on a relatively small number of parameter combinations. Therefore, we introduce an information-matching criterion based on the Fisher information matrix to select the most informative training data from a candidate pool. This method ensures that the selected data contain sufficient information to learn only those parameters that are needed to constrain downstream QoIs. It is formulated as a convex optimization problem, making it scalable to large models and datasets. Here, we demonstrate the effectiveness of this approach across various modeling problems in diverse scientific fields, including power systems and underwater acoustics. Finally, we use information-matching as a query function within an active learning (AL) loop for materials science applications. In all these applications, we find that a relatively small set of optimal training data can provide the necessary information for achieving precise predictions. These results are encouraging for diverse future applications, particularly AL in large machine-learning models.
Materials science↗
Elucidating size effects on the yield strength of single-crystal Cu via the Richtmyer–Meshkov instability
Capturing the dynamic response of a material under high strain-rate deformation often demands challenging and time consuming experimental effort. While shock hydrodynamic simulation methods can aid in this area, a priori characterizations of the material strength under shock loading and spall failure are needed in order to parameterize constitutive models needed for these computational tools. Moreover, parameterizations of strain-rate-dependent strength models are needed to capture the full suite of Richtmyer–Meshkov instability (RMI) behavior of shock compressed metals, creating an unrealistic demand for these training data solely on experiments. Herein, we sweep a large range of geometric, crystallographic, and shock conditions within molecular dynamics (MD) simulations and demonstrate the breadth of RMI in Cu that can be captured from the atomic scale. In this work, yield strength measurements from jetted and arrested material from a sinusoidal surface perturbation were quantified as Y RMI = 0.787 ± 0.374 GPa, higher than strain-rate-independent models used in experimentally matched hydrodynamic simulations. Defect-free, single-crystal Cu samples used in MD will overestimate Y RMI , but the drastic scale difference between experiment and MD is highlighted by high confidence neighborhood clustering predictions of RMI characterizations, yielding incorrect classifications.
71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗