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At least 307 records · Page 17
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Multi-scale, Multi-disciplinary, and Multi-agent Explainable AI with Koopman-Undergirded Learning, Prediction, and Analysis (M3EA KULPA) (Project Closeout Report)

The goal of this project was to develop and use domain-aware machine learning formulations, based on the Koopman Operator (KO), for modelling multi-scale, multi-disciplinary (e.g., multi-physics), and/or multi-agent systems. The project developed these formulations for the following cases: • Systems with dynamics at two separate time scales, • Systems with a bi-level hierarchical control structure, • Systems with bi-level hierarchical control and dynamics at two separate time scales (the lower level controls operating at the faster time scale), and • Systems with n separate but interacting agents/disciplines (with/without control, respectively); the controls for each agent could include bi-level hierarchical control and dynamics at two separate time scales as described above. The project then defined a set of dynamical systems consisting of different nonlinear oscillators that could be used to test these different formulations and then subsequently learned the KO models for those systems. With the KO models, we were able to do the following: • Quantify system stability, including both long-term and transient behavior, • Quantify the effects of feedbacks between the different time scales and agents/disciplines in terms of those feedbacks’ effects on system stability, • Replace a standard Proportional-Integral (PI) control in the hierarchical control structure with a KO-based Linear-Quadratic Regular (LQR), a form of optimal control, • Calculate optimal supervisory control policies a) with and without time scale separated dynamics at the lower level control levels and b) with both PI and KO-based LQR lower level control policies, and • Calculate dynamic Nash equilibria for multi-agent systems where each agent makes its own control decisions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS2001

First Experimental Demonstration of Full-Duplex Optical Communication on a Single Beam

The satellite industry is driven by the need to reduce costs. One way they have sought to do this is by reducing the size and weight of the satellite because of the extremely high cost per kilogram incurred launching a payload into orbit. The main difficulty in this approach is the lack of power capacity in a small satellite. One of the largest loads on a satellite's power system is the communications system. This has driven the need for a low-power communications system. This document examines a novel method of communicating optically with a low-Earth-orbit satellite from the ground without the need for a laser on the payload. The goal is to show the feasibility of such a system as a solution to the small satellite low-powered communication problem. Specially, that the system described herein: is capable of ground to low-Earth-orbit communications, has very little space-borne mass, and draws little power from the satellite. First, the system (hereafter referred to as LOWCAL "Lightweight Optical Wavelength Communication without A Laser in space") will be explained with details of the formats used and the link budgets. Discussions will be presented on the development of some of the system hardware (the laser diode driver, liquid crystal driver, and decision electronics for both the up and down links.) Finally, experimental test results of the entire system operating in a laboratory environment are presented and compared to theory. The results of the laboratory experiment support the original thesis: retro-modulated optical communications can meet the needs of the small satellite community. The system is capable of 10-kbps communication, has low space-borne mass, and draws little power from the satellite (less than 100-mW measured for the laboratory experiment, less than 1.5-W calculated for the Shuttle experiment).

Garrett, Christopher David↗
NASA NTRS2019

Evaluating Biosignatures for Life Detection

The goal here is to develop a conceptual framework for evaluating the ability of different biosignatures to provide evidence for the presence of life in planned missions or observational studies. The focus is on intrinsic characteristics of biosignatures in a given space environment rather than on their detection, which depends on the current state of technology. Suitable evaluation procedures are based on an extensive body of previous work on related problems in which different options are evaluated to make decisions in business, engineering, medical fields and social or political arena. In these cases, three approaches have proven to be particularly useful. Two of them, signal detection theory (SDT) and Bayesian hypothesis testing are based on probabilities. The third approach, multi-attribute utility (MAU) is based on utility theory.

Pohorille, Andrew↗
NASA NTRS2014

Application of Fault Management Theory to the Quantitive Selection of a Launch Vehicle Abort Trigger Suite

SHM/FM theory has been successfully applied to the selection of the baseline set Abort Triggers for the NASA SLS center dot Quantitative assessment played a useful role in the decision process  M&FM, which is new within NASA MSFC, required the most "new" work, as this quantitative analysis had never been done before center dot Required development of the methodology and tool to mechanize the process center dot Established new relationships to the other groups  The process is now an accepted part of the SLS design process, and will likely be applied to similar programs in the future at NASA MSFC  Future improvements center dot Improve technical accuracy ‒Differentiate crew survivability due to an abort, vs. survivability even no immediate abort occurs (small explosion with little debris) ‒Account for contingent dependence of secondary triggers on primary triggers ‒Allocate "Δ LOC Benefit" of each trigger when added to the previously selected triggers. center dot Reduce future costs through the development of a specialized tool  Methodology can be applied to any manned/unmanned vehicle, in space or terrestrial

Lo, Yunnhon↗
NASA NTRS1984

Getting Mental Models and Computer Models to Cooperate

A qualitative theory of supervisory control is outlined wherein the mental models of one or more human operators are related to the knowledge representations within automatic controllers (observers, estimators) and operator decision aids (expert systems, advice-givers). Methods of quantifying knowledge and the calibration of one knowledge representation to another (human, computer, or objective truth) are discussed. Ongoing experiments in the use of decision aids for exploring one's own objective function or exploring system constraints and control strategies are described.

Sheridan, T. B.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Expert system training and control based on the fuzzy relation matrix

Fuzzy knowledge, that for which the terms of reference are not crisp but overlapped, seems to characterize human expertise. This can be shown from the fact that an experienced human operator can control some complex plants better than a computer can. Proposed here is fuzzy theory to build a fuzzy expert relation matrix (FERM) from given rules or/and examples, either in linguistic terms or in numerical values to mimic human processes of perception and decision making. The knowledge base is codified in terms of many implicit fuzzy rules. Fuzzy knowledge thus codified may also be compared with explicit rules specified by a human expert. It can also provide a basis for modeling the human operator and allow comparison of what a human operator says to what he does in practice. Two experiments were performed. In the first, control of liquid in a tank, demonstrates how the FERM knowledge base is elicited and trained. The other shows how to use a FERM, build up from linguistic rules, and to control an inverted pendulum without a dynamic model.

Ren, Jie↗
NASA NTRS1997

On-Line Modal State Monitoring of Slowly Time-Varying Structures

Monitoring the dynamic response of structures is often performed for a variety of reasons. These reasons include condition-based maintenance, health monitoring, performance improvements, and control. In many cases the data analysis that is performed is part of a repetitive decision-making process, and in these cases the development of effective on-line monitoring schemes help to speed the decision-making process and reduce the risk of erroneous decisions. This report investigates the use of spatial modal filters for tracking the dynamics of slowly time-varying linear structures. The report includes an overview of modal filter theory followed by an overview of several structural system identification methods. Included in this discussion and comparison are H-infinity, eigensystem realization, and several time-domain least squares approaches. Finally, a two-stage adaptive on-line monitoring scheme is developed and evaluated.

Johnson, Erik A.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Ensemble Statistical Post-Processing of the National Air Quality Forecast Capability: Enhancing Ozone Forecasts in Baltimore, Maryland

An ensemble statistical post-processor (ESP) is developed for the National Air Quality Forecast Capability (NAQFC) to address the unique challenges of forecasting surface ozone in Baltimore, MD. Air quality and meteorological data were collected from the eight monitors that constitute the Baltimore forecast region. These data were used to build the ESP using a moving-block bootstrap, regression tree models, and extreme-value theory. The ESP was evaluated using a 10-fold cross-validation to avoid evaluation with the same data used in the development process. Results indicate that the ESP is conditionally biased, likely due to slight overfitting while training the regression tree models. When viewed from the perspective of a decision-maker, the ESP provides a wealth of additional information previously not available through the NAQFC alone. The user is provided the freedom to tailor the forecast to the decision at hand by using decision-specific probability thresholds that define a forecast for an ozone exceedance. Taking advantage of the ESP, the user not only receives an increase in value over the NAQFC, but also receives value for An ensemble statistical post-processor (ESP) is developed for the National Air Quality Forecast Capability (NAQFC) to address the unique challenges of forecasting surface ozone in Baltimore, MD. Air quality and meteorological data were collected from the eight monitors that constitute the Baltimore forecast region. These data were used to build the ESP using a moving-block bootstrap, regression tree models, and extreme-value theory. The ESP was evaluated using a 10-fold cross-validation to avoid evaluation with the same data used in the development process. Results indicate that the ESP is conditionally biased, likely due to slight overfitting while training the regression tree models. When viewed from the perspective of a decision-maker, the ESP provides a wealth of additional information previously not available through the NAQFC alone. The user is provided the freedom to tailor the forecast to the decision at hand by using decision-specific probability thresholds that define a forecast for an ozone exceedance. Taking advantage of the ESP, the user not only receives an increase in value over the NAQFC, but also receives value for

ozone↗
NASA NTRS2005

Crew collaboration in space: a naturalistic decision-making perspective

Successful long-duration space missions will depend on the ability of crewmembers to respond promptly and effectively to unanticipated problems that arise under highly stressful conditions. Naturalistic decision making (NDM) exploits the knowledge and experience of decision makers in meaningful work domains, especially complex sociotechnical systems, including aviation and space. Decision making in these ambiguous, dynamic, high-risk environments is a complex task that involves defining the nature of the problem and crafting a response to achieve one's goals. Goal conflicts, time pressures, and uncertain outcomes may further complicate the process. This paper reviews theory and research pertaining to the NDM model and traces some of the implications for space crews and other groups that perform meaningful work in extreme environments. It concludes with specific recommendations for preparing exploration crews to use NDM effectively.

Review, Tutorial↗
NASA NTRS1991

Real-time simulation of helicopter air-to-air combat

The AUTOMAN computer program develops automated maneuvering decisions for helicopters during air-to-air combat over hilly terrain. Recently, the capabilities of this program have been extended and enhanced significantly. The revised program was installed at the NASA Ames manned flight-simulation facility to drive a computer-generated image of an enemy helicopter, thereby providing an adversary for the human pilot. Maneuvers are selected by employing game theory. Enhancements include a guidance law for target acquisition when a firing opportunity arises; fire-control sequence logic; improved low-flying capabilities; line-of-sight computations for the cockpit field-of-view, terrain obstructions, and visual range limits; use of terrain for masking; air-to-air collision-avoidance maneuvers; decision on dispensing flares and chaff; and adjustable levels of pilot experience. The program was found to be extremely useful for both rotorcraft handling-quality evaluations and air-to-air combat training.

Austin, Fred↗
DOE OSTI2022

Distilling physical origins of hardness in multi-principal element alloys directly from ensemble neural network models

Abstract Despite a plethora of data being generated on the mechanical behavior of multi-principal element alloys, a systematic assessment remains inaccessible via Edisonian approaches. We approach this challenge by considering the specific case of alloy hardness, and present a machine-learning framework that captures the essential physical features contributing to hardness and allows high-throughput exploration of multi-dimensional compositional space. The model, tested on diverse datasets, was used to explore and successfully predict hardness in Al x Ti y (CrFeNi) 1- x - y , Hf x Co y (CrFeNi) 1- x - y and Al x (TiZrHf) 1- x systems supported by data from density-functional theory predicted phase stability and ordering behavior. The experimental validation of hardness was done on TiZrHfAl x . The selected systems pose diverse challenges due to the presence of ordering and clustering pairs, as well as vacancy-stabilized novel structures. We also present a detailed model analysis that integrates local partial-dependencies with a compositional-stimulus and model-response study to derive material-specific insights from the decision-making process.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2021

Astrophysical neutrino self-interactions in the high-statistics era

Do neutrinos have sizable self-interactions? They might. Laboratory constraints are weak, so strong effects are possible in astrophysical environments and the early universe. Observations with neutrino telescopes can provide an independent probe of neutrino self (“secret”) interactions, as the sources are distant and the cosmic neutrino background intervenes. We define a roadmap for making decisive progress on testing these interactions. This progress will be enabled by IceCube-Gen2 observations of high-energy astrophysical neutrinos. Critical to this is our comprehensive treatment of the theory, taking into account previously neglected or overly approximated effects, as well as including realistic detection physics. We show that IceCube-Gen2 can realize the full potential of neutrino astronomy for testing neutrino self-interactions, being sensitive to cosmologically relevant interaction models.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
NASA NTRS2015

AdvoCATE - User Guide

The basic vision of AdvoCATE is to automate the creation, manipulation, and management of large-scale assurance cases based on a formal theory of argument structures. Its main purposes are for creating and manipulating argument structures for safety assurance cases using the Goal Structuring Notation (GSN), and as a test bed and proof-of-concept for the formal theory of argument structures. AdvoCATE is available for Windows 7, Macintosh OSX, and Linux. Eventually, AdvoCATE will serve as a dashboard for safety related information and provide an infrastructure for safety decisions and management.

Safety Case↗
NASA NTRS1972

Binaural signal detection - Equalization and cancellation theory.

The improvement in masked-signal detection afforded by two ears (i.e., binaural unmasking) is explained on the basis of a descriptive model of the processing of binaural stimuli by a system consisting of two bandpass filters, an equalization and cancellation mechanism, and a decision device. The main ideas of the model are initially explained, and a general equation is derived for the purpose of making quantitative predictions. Comparisons are then made between various special cases of this equation and experimental data. Failures of the preliminary model in predicting the data are considered, and possible revisions are discussed.

Durlach, N. I.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Game Theory Approaches for System-level Incentive Design

This report presents a generalized Stackelberg game framework for designing and evaluating financial incentives that enhance power system resilience through strategic deployment of distributed energy resources(DERs) under various contingencies. The proposed approach addresses the challenge of coordinating individual community investment decisions to meet system-wide resilience objectives. The framework is demonstrated in a three-community test system subjected to two transmission contingency scenarios: inter-community line failure (Case 1) and complete main grid disconnection (Case 2). In both cases, three incentive levels are compared: a Base case with no financial incentives, and low and high incentive cases. In Case 1, the Base case (no incentives) results in a total installed DER capacity of 217.2 MW, with no load shedding due to alternative routing, but community costs remain high. Increasing incentives raises DER deployment to 286.9 MW, lowers aggregate community costs by $22M annually, and completely avoids the need for costly new transmission line construction. In Case 2, the Base case results in 24.3 MWh of unserved load; introducing incentives eliminates all load shedding and ensures up to 89 MWh of battery storage is available for emergency reserve. These results demonstrate that targeted incentives can dramatically improve grid resilience and cost-effectiveness. The framework thus offers policymakers and system planners a robust tool to quantify and compare the effectiveness of incentive programs for multi-community transmission networks behavior, system resilience, and economic efficiency.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
NASA NTRS2018

Stabilized Approach Criteria: Bridging the Gap Between Theory and Practice

Approach and landing is the most common phase of flight for aviation accidents, accounting annually for approximately 65 percent of all accidents. A Flight Safety Foundation study of 16 years of runway excursions determined that 83 percent could have been avoided with a decision to go around. In other words, 54 percent of all accidents could potentially be prevented by going around. A critical industry policy designed to help prevent such accidents is the go-around policy. However, the collective industry performance of complying with go-around policies is extremely poor and only about three percent of unstable approaches result in a go-around. Improving the go-around compliance rate holds tremendous potential in reducing approach and landing accidents. There are many reasons for flight crews ignoring go-around policies related to pilot judgement and company policies. Examples are the collective industry norm to accept the noncompliance of go-around policies, management being disengaged from go-around noncompliance, and pilot fatigue and lack of situational awareness. One of the biggest factors is that pilots see current stabilized-approach criteria as too complex and restrictive for the operational environment. Following the American Airlines 1420 accident (Little Rock, 1999), where the aircraft overran the runway upon landing and crashed, the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) recommended that the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) define detailed parameters for a stabilized approach, and develop detailed criteria indicating when a go-around should be performed. The experiment discussed in this presentation is the first step towards developing these go-around criteria for commercial transport aircraft.

pilot performance↗
DOE OSTI2025

Phonon Olympics: Phonon property and lattice thermal conductivity benchmarking from open-source packages

Three widely used open-source packages for determining phonon properties and lattice thermal conductivities (ALAMODE, phono3py, and ShengBTE) are benchmarked by teams of expert users and the package developers. The phonons for Ge, RbBr, monolayer MoSe 2 , and AlN are modeled at zero temperature, and they scatter through three-phonon and phonon-isotope processes, with thermal conductivities obtained from the linearized Peierls–Boltzmann transport equation with input from density functional theory calculations. Over a wide range of temperatures, the thermal conductivities calculated by the teams fall within at most ±15% of their mean values for each of the four materials. The phonon frequencies, obtained from the harmonic force constants, do not show large differences between the calculations, indicating that the modal heat capacities and group velocities are not responsible for the thermal conductivity variations. It is the lifetimes associated with three-phonon scattering, obtained from the cubic force constants, that drive the variations. The many decisions required to calculate the cubic force constants (e.g., supercell size, atomic displacement, neighbor cutoff, and application of symmetries) make identification of the precise origin of the thermal conductivity variations challenging. The calculated thermal conductivities do not generally show agreement with experimental measurements, which is attributed to the limitations of the density functional theory calculations. Guidance for the development of best practices is provided, which will help to standardize protocols needed for building thermal conductivity databases. The results provide a baseline for future benchmarking of other packages and more advanced calculations.

McGaughey, Alan J. H. [Carnegie Mellon Univ., Pitt↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Leveraging Human Performance Data to Change the Narrative that People are the Safety Problem

The study of errors and failure has a long and productive history in the behavioral sciences. By studying how systems fail, we rule out various mechanisms for how those systems might work, thereby refining our theories of how they actually work. Human performance, however, includes more than errors; human performance comprises both failures and successes. A systematic bias to collect and analyze data only on error affects the decisions we make as a community by promoting the narrative that “people are the safety problem.” This narrative manifests in both obvious and subtle ways in the design of systems intended for human use. When the only safety data that are available are about human failure, then “data-driven” designs can only consider that humans fail. Changing this narrative will depend on new data and new ways to examine data – specifically, data on the processes by which human create and contribute to safety. An alternate narrative is that people represent a primary source of safety, through their capability to anticipate, monitor for, respond to, and learn from expected and unexpected change. This presentation will describe research efforts to expand the range of safety-relevant events to include not just rare safety failures but frequent safety successes. These efforts include use of data from both operations and simulations to develop methods and metrics for learning from structured observation, self-report, and system data.

Jon Holbrook↗