Results for “decision model” — Page 17

NASA NTRS1995

Combining Speed Information Across Space

We used speed discrimination tasks to measure the ability of observers to combine speed information from multiple stimuli distributed across space. We compared speed discrimination thresholds in a classical discrimination paradigm to those in an uncertainty/search paradigm. Thresholds were measured using a temporal two-interval forced-choice design. In the discrimination paradigm, the n gratings in each interval all moved at the same speed and observers were asked to choose the interval with the faster gratings. Discrimination thresholds for this paradigm decreased as the number of gratings increased. This decrease was not due to increasing the effective stimulus area as a control experiment that increased the area of a single grating did not show a similar improvement in thresholds. Adding independent speed noise to each of the n gratings caused thresholds to decrease at a rate similar to the original no-noise case, consistent with observers combining an independent sample of speed from each grating in both the added- and no-noise cases. In the search paradigm, observers were asked to choose the interval in which one of the n gratings moved faster. Thresholds in this case increased with the number of gratings, behavior traditionally attributed to an input bottleneck. However, results from the discrimination paradigm showed that the increase was not due to observers' inability to process these gratings. We have also shown that the opposite trends of the data in the two paradigms can be predicted by a decision theory model that combines independent samples of speed information across space. This demonstrates that models typically used in classical detection and discrimination paradigms are also applicable to search paradigms. As our model does not distinguish between samples in space and time, it predicts that discrimination performance should be the same regardless of whether the gratings are presented in two spatial intervals or two temporal intervals. Our last experiment largely confirmed this prediction.

Verghese, Preeti↗

NASA NTRS1995

Combining Speed Information Across Space

We used speed discrimination tasks to measure the ability of observers to combine speed information from multiple stimuli distributed across space. We compared speed discrimination thresholds in a classical discrimination paradigm to those in an uncertainty/search paradigm. Thresholds were measured using a temporal two-interval forced-choice design. In the discrimination paradigm, the n gratings in each interval all moved at the same speed and observers were asked to choose the interval with the faster gratings. Discrimination thresholds for this paradigm decreased as the number of gratings increased. This decrease was not due to increasing the effective stimulus area as a control experiment that increased the area of a single grating did not show a similar improvement in thresholds. Adding independent speed noise to each of the n gratings caused thresholds to decrease at a rate similar to the original no-noise case, consistent with observers combining an independent sample of speed from each grating in both the added- and no-noise cases. In the search paradigm, observers were asked to choose the interval in which one of the n gratings moved faster. Thresholds in this case increased with the number of gratings, behavior traditionally attributed to an input bottleneck. However, results from the discrimination paradigm showed that the increase was not due to observers' inability to process these gratings. We have also shown that the opposite trends of the data in the two paradigms can be predicted by a decision theory model that combines independent samples of speed information across space. This demonstrates that models typically used in classical detection and discrimination paradigms are also applicable to search paradigms. As our model does not distinguish between samples in space and time, it predicts that discrimination performance should be the same regardless of whether the gratings are presented in two spatial intervals or two temporal intervals. Our last experiment largely confirmed this prediction.

Verghese, Preeti↗

NASA NTRS2000

Exact Solutions to Time-dependent Mdps

We describe an extension of the Markov decision process model in which a continuous time dimension is included in the state space. This allows for the representation and exact solution of a wide range of problems in which transitions or rewards vary over time. We examine problems based on route planning with public transportation and telescope observation scheduling.

Boyan, Justin A.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Space Based Communications

Current space lift launches on the Eastern and Western Range require extensive ground-based real-time tracking, communications and command/control systems. These are expensive to maintain and operate and cover only limited geographical areas. Future spaceports will require new technologies to provide greater launch and landing opportunities, support simultaneous missions, and offer enhanced decision support models and simulation capabilities. These ranges must also have lower costs and reduced complexity while continuing to provide unsurpassed safety to the public, flight crew, personnel, vehicles and facilities. Commercial and government space-based assets for tracking and communications offer many attractive possibilities to help achieve these goals. This paper describes two NASA proof-of-concept projects that seek-to exploit the advantages of a space-based range: Iridium Flight Modem and Space-Based Telemetry and Range Safety (STARS). Iridium Flight Modem uses the commercial satellite system Iridium for extremely low cost, low rate two-way communications and has been successfully tested on four aircraft flights. A sister project at Goddard Space Flight Center's (GSFC) Wallops Flight Facility (WFF) using the Globalstar system has been tested on one rocket. The basic Iridium Flight Modem system consists of a L1 carrier Coarse/Acquisition (C/A)-Code Global Positioning System (GPS) receiver, an on-board computer, and a standard commercial satellite modem and antennas. STARS uses the much higher data rate NASA owned Tracking and Data Relay Satellite System (TDRSS), a C/A-Code GPS receiver, an experimental low-power transceiver, custom built command and data handler processor, and digitized flight termination system (FTS) commands. STARS is scheduled to fly on an F-15 at Dryden Flight Research Center in the spring of 2003, with follow-on tests over the next several years.

Simpson, James↗

NASA NTRS2004

Human-Interaction Challenges in UAV-Based Autonomous Surveillance

Autonomous UAVs provide a platform for intelligent surveillance in application domains ranging from security and military operations to scientific information gathering and land management. Surveillance tasks are often long duration, requiring that any approach be adaptive to changes in the environment or user needs. We describe a decision- theoretic model of surveillance, appropriate for use on our autonomous helicopter, that provides a basis for optimizing the value of information returned by the UAV. From this approach arise a range of challenges in making this framework practical for use by human operators lacking specialized knowledge of autonomy and mathematics. This paper describes our platform and approach, then describes human-interaction challenges arising from this approach that we have identified and begun to address.

Freed, Michael↗

NASA NTRS2000

Capacity of Pulse-Position Modulation (PPM) on Gaussian and Webb Channels

This article computes the capacity of various idealized soft-decision channels modeling an optical channel using an avalanche photodiode detector (APD) and pulse-position modulation (PPM). The capacity of this optical channel depends in a complicated way on the physical parameters of the APD and the constraints imposed by the PPM orthogonal signaling set. This article attempts to identify and separate the effects of several fundamental parameters on the capacity of the APD-detected optical PPM channel. First, an overall signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) parameter is de ned such that the capacity as a function of a bit-normalized version of this SNR drops precipitously toward zero at quasi-brick-wall limits on bit SNR that are numerically the same as the well-understood brick-wall limits for the standard additive white Gaussian noise (AWGN) channel. A second parameter is used to quantify the effects on capacity of one unique facet of the optical PPM channel (as compared with the standard AWGN channel) that causes the noise variance to be higher in signal slots than in nonsignal slots. This nonuniform noise variance yields interesting capacity effects even when the channel model is AWGN. A third parameter is used to measure the effects on capacity of the difference between an AWGN model and a non-Gaussian model proposed by Webb (see reference in [2]) for approximating the statistics of the APD-detected optical channel. Finally, a fourth parameter is used to quantify the blending of a Webb model with a pure AWGN model to account for thermal noise. Numerical results show that the capacity of M-ary orthogonal signaling on the Webb channel exhibits the same brick-wall Shannon limit, (M ln 2)=(M 1), as on the AWGN channel ( 1:59 dB for large M). Results also compare the capacity obtained by hard- and soft-output channels and indicate that soft-output channels o er a 3-dB advantage.

Dolinar, S.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Modeling uncertainty in requirements engineering decision support

One inherent characteristic of requrements engineering is a lack of certainty during this early phase of a project. Nevertheless, decisions about requirements must be made in spite of this uncertainty. Here we describe the context in which we are exploring this, and some initial work to support elicitation of uncertain requirements, and to deal with the combination of such information from multiple stakeholders.

risk analysis↗

NASA NTRS2009

Observations of Crew Dynamics During Mars Analog Simulations

Crewmembers on Mars missions will face new and unique challenges compared to those in close communications proximity to Mission Control centers. Crews on Mars will likely become more autonomous and responsible for their day-to-day planning. These explorers will need to make frequent real time decisions without the assistance of large ground support teams. Ground-centric control will no longer be an option due to the communications delays. As a result of the new decision making model, crew dynamics and leadership styles of future astronauts may become significantly different from the demands of today. As a volunteer for the Mars Society on two Mars analog missions, this presenter will discuss observations made during isolated, surface exploration simulations. The need for careful crew selections, not just based on individual skill sets, but on overall team interactions becomes apparent very quickly when the crew is planning their own days and deciding their own priorities. Even more important is the selection of a Mission Commander who can lead a team of highly skilled individuals with strong and varied opinions in a way that promotes crew consensus, maintains fairness, and prevents unnecessary crew fatigue.

Cusack, Stacy L.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Integration of Evidence Base into a Probabilistic Risk Assessment

INTRODUCTION: A probabilistic decision support model such as the Integrated Medical Model (IMM) utilizes an immense amount of input data that necessitates a systematic, integrated approach for data collection, and management. As a result of this approach, IMM is able to forecasts medical events, resource utilization and crew health during space flight. METHODS: Inflight data is the most desirable input for the Integrated Medical Model. Non-attributable inflight data is collected from the Lifetime Surveillance for Astronaut Health study as well as the engineers, flight surgeons, and astronauts themselves. When inflight data is unavailable cohort studies, other models and Bayesian analyses are used, in addition to subject matters experts input on occasion. To determine the quality of evidence of a medical condition, the data source is categorized and assigned a level of evidence from 1-5; the highest level is one. The collected data reside and are managed in a relational SQL database with a web-based interface for data entry and review. The database is also capable of interfacing with outside applications which expands capabilities within the database itself. Via the public interface, customers can access a formatted Clinical Findings Form (CLiFF) that outlines the model input and evidence base for each medical condition. Changes to the database are tracked using a documented Configuration Management process. DISSCUSSION: This strategic approach provides a comprehensive data management plan for IMM. The IMM Database s structure and architecture has proven to support additional usages. As seen by the resources utilization across medical conditions analysis. In addition, the IMM Database s web-based interface provides a user-friendly format for customers to browse and download the clinical information for medical conditions. It is this type of functionality that will provide Exploratory Medicine Capabilities the evidence base for their medical condition list. CONCLUSION: The IMM Database in junction with the IMM is helping NASA aerospace program improve the health care and reduce risk for the astronauts crew. Both the database and model will continue to expand to meet customer needs through its multi-disciplinary evidence based approach to managing data. Future expansion could serve as a platform for a Space Medicine Wiki of medical conditions.

Saile, Lyn↗

NASA NTRS2011

Land and Atmosphere Near-Real-Time Capability for Earth Observing System

The past decade has seen a rapid increase in availability and usage of near-real-time data from satellite sensors. The EOSDIS (Earth Observing System Data and Information System) was not originally designed to provide data with sufficiently low latency to satisfy the requirements for near-real-time users. The EOS (Earth Observing System) instruments aboard the Terra, Aqua and Aura satellites make global measurements daily, which are processed into higher-level 'standard' products within 8-40 hours of observation and then made available to users, primarily earth science researchers. However, applications users, operational agencies, and even researchers desire EOS products in near-real-time to support research and applications, including numerical weather and climate prediction and forecasting, monitoring of natural hazards, ecological/invasive species, agriculture, air quality, disaster relief and homeland security. These users often need data much sooner than routine science processing allows, usually within 3 hours, and are willing to trade science product quality for timely access. While Direct Broadcast provides more timely access to data, it does not provide global coverage. In 2002, a joint initiative between NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration), NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration), and the DOD (Department of Defense) was undertaken to provide data from EOS instruments in near-real-time. The NRTPE (Near Real Time Processing Effort) provided products within 3 hours of observation on a best-effort basis. As the popularity of these near-real-time products and applications grew, multiple near-real-time systems began to spring up such as the Rapid Response System. In recognizing the dependence of customers on this data and the need for highly reliable and timely data access, NASA's Earth Science Division sponsored the Earth Science Data and Information System Project (ESDIS)-led development of a new near-real-time system called LANCE (Land, Atmosphere Near-Real-Time Capability for EOS) in 2009. LANCE consists of special processing elements, co-located with selected EOSDIS data centers and processing facilities. A primary goal of LANCE is to bring multiple near-real-time systems under one umbrella, offering commonality in data access, quality control, and latency. LANCE now processes and distributes data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer Earth Observing System (AMSR-E), Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) instruments within 3 hours of satellite observation. The Rapid Response System and the Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS) capabilities will be incorporated into LANCE in 2011. LANCE maintains a central website to facilitate easy access to data and user services. LANCE products are extensively tested and compared with science products before being made available to users. Each element also plans to implement redundant network, power and server infrastructure to ensure high availability of data and services. Through the user registration system, users are informed of any data outages and when new products or services will be available for access. Building on a significant investment by NASA in developing science algorithms and products, LANCE creates products that have a demonstrated utility for applications requiring near-real-time data. From lower level data products such as calibrated geolocated radiances to higher-level products such as sea ice extent, snow cover, and cloud cover, users have integrated LANCE data into forecast models and decision support systems. The table above shows the current near-real-time product categories by instrument. The ESDIS Project continues to improve the LANCE system and use the experience gained through practice to seek adjustments to improve the quality and performance of the system. For example, anGC-compliant Web Map Service (WMS) will be added shortly that will allow users to download geo-referenced MODIS images for arbitrary bounding boxes. Further, an OGC-compliant Web Coverage Service (WCS) will be added later this year that will expedite user access to arbitrary data subsets or re-formatted products. AIRS images are now served through WMS and available in multiple formats (PNG, GeoTIFF, KMZ). NASA has established a LANCE User Working Group to steer the development of the system and create a forum for sharing ideas and experiences that are expected to further improve the LANCE capabilities. The LANCE system has proved a success by satisfying the growing needs of the applications and operational communities for land and atmosphere data in near-real-time. NASA's Earth Sciences Division was able to leverage existing science research capabilities to provide the near-real-time community with products and imagery that support monitoring of disasters in a timely manner.

Murphy, Kevin J.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Current CFD Practices in Launch Vehicle Applications

The quest for sustained space exploration will require the development of advanced launch vehicles, and efficient and reliable operating systems. Development of launch vehicles via test-fail-fix approach is very expensive and time consuming. For decision making, modeling and simulation (M&S) has played increasingly important roles in many aspects of launch vehicle development. It is therefore essential to develop and maintain most advanced M&S capability. More specifically computational fluid dynamics (CFD) has been providing critical data for developing launch vehicles complementing expensive testing. During the past three decades CFD capability has increased remarkably along with advances in computer hardware and computing technology. However, most of the fundamental CFD capability in launch vehicle applications is derived from the past advances. Specific gaps in the solution procedures are being filled primarily through "piggy backed" efforts.on various projects while solving today's problems. Therefore, some of the advanced capabilities are not readily available for various new tasks, and mission-support problems are often analyzed using ad hoc approaches. The current report is intended to present our view on state-of-the-art (SOA) in CFD and its shortcomings in support of space transport vehicle development. Best practices in solving current issues will be discussed using examples from ascending launch vehicles. Some of the pacing will be discussed in conjunction with these examples.

Kwak, Dochan↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Development of a Weather Capability for the Urban Air Mobility Airspace Research Roadmap

Traditionally, the transportation system’s resiliency to the impacts of weather is an area where neglected or incorrect assumptions can lead to difficulties later in the research and development lifecycle. To mitigate this, NASA has ongoing efforts to develop a set of research roadmaps for organizing, integrating, and communicating research into new aviation infrastructure and transportation modalities, within which weather is being addressed early on. An effort has been undertaken to add weather assumptions and requirements to an already-existing roadmap for the Urban Air Mobility (UAM) airspace, seeking to integrate weather requirements early in the system design. This effort addresses the way in which state-of-the art and evolving weather science and technology can enable safe and efficient travel with increasing tempo of UAM operations over time. This paper describes the addition of weather as one of 10 capabilities into the UAM Airspace research roadmap, laying out the anticipated weather technology and information requirements needed to facilitate operations at various UAM Maturity Levels. The process developed and exercised by MIT Lincoln Laboratory researchers produced 41 unique requirements to be satisfied by a Weather capability for the UAM ecosystem, with more than 300 dependencies identified across the system. These requirements cover measurement, analysis, modeling, forecasting, decision support, dissemination, and overarching policy, and are provided with an overview of weather challenges for UAM. The requirements were mainly defined based on subject matter expert review of existing UAM Airspace system requirements, and refined based on iterative feedback with various stakeholders including regulators, academia, and industry. Going forward, this roadmap will help researchers and developers align to a common vision in ensuring that weather is appropriately considered in the UAM ecosystem.

Timothy Bonin↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Development of a Weather Capability for the Urban Air Mobility Airspace Research Roadmap

Traditionally, the transportation system’s resiliency to the impacts of weather is an area where neglected or incorrect assumptions can lead to difficulties later in the research and development lifecycle. To mitigate this, NASA has ongoing efforts to develop a set of research roadmaps for organizing, integrating, and communicating research into new aviation infrastructure and transportation modalities, within which weather is being addressed early on. An effort has been undertaken to add weather assumptions and requirements to an already-existing roadmap for the Urban Air Mobility (UAM) airspace, seeking to integrate weather requirements early in the system design. This effort addresses the way in which state-of-the art and evolving weather science and technology can enable safe and efficient travel with increasing tempo of UAM operations over time. This paper describes the addition of weather as one of 10 capabilities into the UAM Airspace research roadmap, laying out the anticipated weather technology and information requirements needed to facilitate operations at various UAM Maturity Levels. The process developed and exercised by MIT Lincoln Laboratory researchers produced 41 unique requirements to be satisfied by a Weather capability for the UAM ecosystem, with more than 300 dependencies identified across the system. These requirements cover measurement, analysis, modeling, forecasting, decision support, dissemination, and overarching policy, and are provided with an overview of weather challenges for UAM. The requirements were mainly defined based on subject matter expert review of existing UAM Airspace system requirements, and refined based on iterative feedback with various stakeholders including regulators, academia, and industry. Going forward, this roadmap will help researchers and developers align to a common vision in ensuring that weather is appropriately considered in the UAM ecosystem.

research roadmap↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Model Based Approaches for Fault Detection, Prognostics, Decision Making in Complex Systems

The presentation discusses application of model based approaches to complex systems. The model is composed of physics-derived and empirical equations, integrated with connected networks that are strategically placed within the model to substitute equations that are subject to large uncertainty. Polynomial fit driven by heuristics or empirical observations can be substituted by more flexible networks that can minimize the error between model predictions and observations without being restricted to a predefined functional form. This modeling strategy allows training of networks deep inside the model and unknown parameters in a single learning stage.

Physics Informed↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Considerations for Health and Performance During Surface Extravehicular Activities

BACKGROUND: NASA’s objectives for expanding human presence beyond low Earth orbit will require Extravehicular Activities (EVAs) on lunar and planetary surfaces. Given the physiological and functional demands of conducting surface EVAs in a pressurized spacesuit in reduced gravity environments, there is a possibility that crew injury and compromised physiological and/or functional performance may present. OVERVIEW: Many human health and performance knowledge gaps exist in regards to exploration EVA that require characterization to ensure safety, reliability, and mission success. To address knowledge gaps, EVA simulations in Earth-based analog environments and/or spacesuit simulators can be utilized to provide valuable insights into task-based physiologic and metabolic costs, cognitive loads, and associated operational limitations to inform future mission concepts. Physical workloads approaching 60% of maximum metabolic rates and 85% age-predicted heart rate maxima; core body temperatures approaching 100o F; and subjective responses indicating limited spare cognitive capacity via Bedford scale have been observed during ground-based exploration EVA simulations in the NASA Active Response Gravity Offload Simulator (ARGOS) and Neutral Buoyancy Lab (NBL) during simulated planetary EVAs in pressurized suits. Further, ground-based EVA analogs vary in their ability to simulate planetary EVA and resulting physical workloads. DISCUSSION: Metabolic costs, thermal burdens, functional strength, and cognitive impacts have been and must continue to be assessed in ground-based analogs to fully characterize operational demands and crew readiness levels for exploration EVA. Considerations should be given to enabling a new concept of high-tempo surface EVA operations and associated work-rest intervals, understanding human health and performance impacts of evolving commercial suit designs and capabilities, and predictive modeling and decision support capabilities to enable safe and successful EVA operations.

EVA↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Design, Formalization, and Verification of Decision Making for Intelligent Systems

The development of autonomous systems requires a rigorous process that can guarantee a system’s reliability in critical applications. At its core, an autonomous system bases its behavior on a well-defined decision making system. In this paper, we present a methodological basis for the design, formalization and formal verification of Decision Making systems for autonomous agents. The approach is generally applicable to operational objectives that can be functionally decomposed and subsequently represented as Hierarchical Finite State Machines. As a case study, we present the application of this method to implement a Decision Making model in Simulink. Furthermore, we present how we use NASA’s FRET tool to write requirements in structured natural language and generate formal specifications that can be automatically digested by NASA’s CoCoSim tool. Finally, we present how, by leveraging CoCoSim, we perform formal verification against the Simulink model and present analysis results.

Model-based development↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Design, Formalization, and Verification of Decision Making for Intelligent Systems

The development of autonomous systems requires a rigorous process that can guarantee a system’s reliability in critical applications. At its core, an autonomous system bases its behavior on a well-defined decision making system. In this paper, we present a methodological basis for the design, formalization and formal verification of Decision Making systems for autonomous agents. The approach is generally applicable to operational objectives that can be functionally decomposed and subsequently represented as Hierarchical Finite State Machines. As a case study, we present the application of this method to implement a Decision Making model in Simulink. Furthermore, we present how we use NASA’s FRET tool to write requirements in structured natural language and generate formal specifications that can be automatically digested by NASA’s CoCoSim tool. Finally, we present how, by leveraging CoCoSim, we perform formal verification against the Simulink model and present analysis results.

Model-based development↗

NASA NTRS2024

Considerations for Health and Performance during Surface Extravehicular Activities

BACKGROUND: NASA’s objectives for expanding human presence beyond low Earth orbit will require Extravehicular Activities (EVAs) on lunar and planetary surfaces. Given the physiological and functional demands of conducting surface EVAs in a pressurized spacesuit in reduced gravity environments, there is a possibility that crew injury and compromised physiological and/or functional performance may present. OVERVIEW: Many human health and performance knowledge gaps exist in regards to exploration EVA that require characterization to ensure safety, reliability, and mission success. To address knowledge gaps, EVA simulations in Earth-based analog environments and/or spacesuit simulators can be utilized to provide valuable insights into task-based physiologic and metabolic costs, cognitive loads, and associated operational limitations to inform future mission concepts. Physical workloads approaching 60% of maximum metabolic rates and 85% age-predicted heart rate maxima; core body temperatures approaching 100° F; and subjective responses indicating limited spare cognitive capacity via Bedford scale have been observed during ground-based exploration EVA simulations in the NASA Active Response Gravity Offload Simulator (ARGOS) and Neutral Buoyancy Lab (NBL) during simulated planetary EVAs in pressurized suits. Further, ground-based EVA analogs vary in their ability to simulate planetary EVA and resulting physical workloads. DISCUSSION: Metabolic costs, thermal burdens, functional strength, and cognitive impacts have been and must continue to be assessed in ground-based analogs to fully characterize operational demands and crew readiness levels for exploration EVA. Considerations should be given to enabling a new concept of high-tempo surface EVA operations and associated work-rest intervals, understanding human health and performance impacts of evolving commercial suit designs and capabilities, and predictive modeling and decision support capabilities to enable safe and successful EVA operations.

P Estep↗