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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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DOE OSTI2023

Integrating LEO and GEO Observations: Toward Optimal Summertime Satellite Precipitation Retrieval

Abstract Reliable quantitative precipitation estimation with a rich spatiotemporal resolution is vital for understanding the Earth’s hydrological cycle. Precipitation estimation over land and coastal regions is necessary for addressing the high degree of spatial heterogeneity of water availability and demand, and for resolving the extremes that modulate and amplify hazards such as flooding and landslides. Advancements in computation power along with unique high spatiotemporal and spectral resolution data streams from passive meteorological sensors aboard geosynchronous Earth-orbiting (GEO) and low Earth-orbiting (LEO) satellites offer exciting opportunities to retrieve information about surface precipitation phenomena using data-driven machine learning techniques. In this study, the capabilities of U-Net–like architecture are investigated to map instantaneous, summertime surface precipitation intensity at the spatial resolution of 2 km. The calibrated brightness temperature products from the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Microwave Imager (GMI) radiometer are combined with multispectral images (visible, near-infrared, and infrared bands) from the Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) aboard the GOES-R satellites as main inputs to the U-Net–like precipitation algorithm. Total precipitable water and 2-m temperature from the Global Forecast System (GFS) model are also used as auxiliary inputs to the model. The results show that the U-Net–like algorithm can capture fine-scale patterns and intensity of surface precipitation at high spatial resolution over stratiform and convective precipitation regimes. The evaluations reveal the potential of extracting relevant, high spatial features over complex surface types such as mountainous regions and coastlines. The algorithm allows users to interpret the inputs’ importance and can serve as a starting point for further exploration of precipitation systems within the field of hydrometeorology.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

DOE OSTI2026

Enabling kilometer-scale E3SM land model simulation over North America: A new integrated framework solution

This study introduces a novel framework designed to enhance the performance, scalability, and portability of the kilometer-scale E3SM Land Model (km-ELM) within the E3SM modeling infrastructure. By seamlessly integrating cutting-edge data tools, we address existing challenges such as slow performance, limited scalability, and difficulties in software integration in current data-driven ELM simulation over large geographic areas. Our innovative approach leverages the KiloCraft data toolkit to generate unified inputs for simulations ranging from a single-cite case, to a 72,083-cell regional case to a continental configuration encompassing 21.6 million land grid cells at a 1 km × 1 km resolution. We conduct extensive strong- and weak-scaling experiments on three state-of-the-art supercomputers, utilizing up to 100,800 CPU cores across 2400 compute nodes to evaluate end-to-end metrics including wall-clock time, simulation-years-per-day (SYPD), initialization costs, and I/O throughput. Our results reveal the land (LND) component’s efficient scaling, demonstrating near-ideal weak scaling and strong-scaling parallel efficiencies reaching up to 87% at 50,400 cores. We confirm portability and reproducibility through bitwise-equivalent outputs across different machines using identical inputs over supported machines. Notably, at extreme scales, we identify I/O as a critical bottleneck and that leads to effective solution with the SCORPIO/ADIOS stack. Collectively, these findings validate the deployment of km-ELM at a continental scale with high parallel efficiency and provide essential guidance on configuration, decomposition, and I/O settings for optimized kilometer-scale land simulations in E3SM. This work emphasizes the innovative design and practical solutions that enhance the operational capabilities of km-ELM, focusing on software performance and scalability while leaving detailed scientific evaluations of simulated land processes for future investigations.

E3SM land model (ELM), km-ELM, scalability, perfor↗

DOE OSTI2024

Semi-supervised Learning of Dynamical Systems with Neural Ordinary Differential Equations: A Teacher-Student Model Approach

Modeling dynamical systems is crucial for a wide range of tasks, but it remains challenging due to complex nonlinear dynamics, limited observations, or lack of prior knowledge. Recently, data-driven approaches such as Neural Ordinary Differential Equations (NODE) have shown promising results by leveraging the expressive power of neural networks to model unknown dynamics. However, these approaches often suffer from limited labeled training data, leading to poor generalization and suboptimal predictions. On the other hand, semi-supervised algorithms can utilize abundant unlabeled data and have demonstrated good performance in classification and regression tasks. We propose TS-NODE, the first semi-supervised approach to modeling dynamical systems with NODE. TS-NODE explores cheaply generated synthetic pseudo rollouts to broaden exploration in the state space and to tackle the challenges brought by lack of ground-truth system data under a teacher-student model. TS-NODE employs an unified optimization framework that corrects the teacher model based on the student's feedback while mitigating the potential false system dynamics present in pseudo rollouts. TS-NODE demonstrates significant performance improvements over a baseline Neural ODE model on multiple dynamical system modeling tasks.

Wang, Yu↗

DOE OSTI2025

Data-Driven Energy Resilience Assessment and Enhancement in Urban Communities: A Case Study in Detroit

This paper presents a data-driven framework for assessing and enhancing energy resilience in urban communities. The resilience assessment is based on two datasets: 1) annual aggregated power outage data and 2) 15-minute interval outage data. High-impact, low-probability (HILP) events are identified within these datasets to evaluate community resilience under extreme conditions. To enhance resilience, an optimization framework utilizing mixed integer linear programming is developed to determine the optimal sizing and placement of solar photovoltaic (PV) systems and battery energy storage systems (BESS). This method offers a cost-effective and practical solution for improving energy resilience in vulnerable communities. Furthermore, a case study of the City of Detroit in Michigan demonstrates the effectiveness of the framework through simulation and validation.

Energy resilience assessment↗

DOE OSTI2024

Spin-Controllable Dynamics in Defect-Engineered Carbon Nanotubes as Single Photon Emitters: Data-Driven Modeling and Computations

Quantum technologies, such as quantum computing and sensing, require efficient single-photon emission (SPE) sources that operate at room temperature in telecom wavelengths. While several materials can serve as SPE sources, no single platform meets all the criteria for efficiency, ambient operation, and scalability. Single-walled carbon nanotubes (SWCNTs) with covalently attached molecules offer a promising solution. Their SPE can be easily tuned via modifications of the SWCNT's diameter, chirality, and bonded molecules, enabling emission across near-IR to telecom wavelengths at ambient conditions. However, to fully realize the potential of SWCNTs and unlock their quantum capabilities, a deeper understanding of how structural defects from molecular adducts affect their emission and competing photoexcited processes is essential. To address this gap in our knowledge, this project combined quantum chemistry calculations with data-driven methods of cheminformatics (QSAR) and machine learning (ML). The developed computational approaches have provided several design strategies for covalent functionalization of SWCNTs to improve their optical response. The collaboration with Los Alamos National Lab (LANL) enabled direct comparison of computational and experimental data, facilitating method validation. This partnership was enhanced through access to LANL's Center for Integrated Nanotechnologies (CINT) utilizing User Facility Program and summer internships, which provided three NDSU graduate students with hands-on experience at LANL. The outcomes of this project included (1) Advancing the current stage of computational methods in accurate modeling of non-adiabatic spin-dependent photoexcited dynamics and its applicability to nanosystems consisting of thousands of atoms, realized as open-access codes linked to existing DFT-based software; (2) Establishing the relationship between the structure of adducts and SWCNTs and intrinsic excitonic and spin properties of defect states for guiding novel synthetic strategies and experimental probes of chemically functionalized SWCNTs as near-IR emitting materials; (3) Generating virtual libraries of hypothetical functionalized SWCNTs for virtual screening of their chemical structures and optical properties, leveraging new functionalities of SWCNTs; (4) Offering a unique experience for NDSU graduate students that prepared them for future scientific careers related to materials modeling and big data processing. These results were summarized in 12 published journal papers and 3 recently submitted papers. One of a key finding is that the position of defect sites on the SWCNT surface primarily drives the emission redshift (up to 100 meV), while the polarity of the defect-inducing molecules has a much smaller effect (~10 meV). However, the electron-donating or withdrawing properties of a molecule influence selecting reactivity of defect sites. These insights important for optimizing synthetic protocols for desired emissions in SWCNTs. We also revealed that the interaction between two defects at various positions on the SWCNT enhances the redshift and optical activity of states, favoring strong near-IR emission. This suggests that manipulations in defect concentrations is a promising strategy for controlling efficient emission. Mostly important, the defect position was found controllable by the spin states of photoexcited intermediates: Excited aromatic molecules form ortho defects with SWCNTs at their singlet states in the presence of oxygen, while oxygen-free conditions favor para defects via the triplet-state mechanism. Additionally, a heat-activated [2+2] cycloaddition reaction facilitates divalent defect formation with fewer bonding positions that narrows emission bands. These groundbreaking findings have been experimentally validated and significantly advance our understanding of defect chemistry in SWCNTs. Using a novel encoding technique and 3D-MoRSE descriptors, we developed highly accurate ML/QSAR models to predict both the 3D structure and optical properties of SWCNTs with chemical defects. This model enabled the creation of a virtual library of 125,556 structures, providing new insights into the relationship between SWCNT-defect structure and emission.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Investigating Kinetic Mechanisms of Soot Formation in Plasma Pyrolysis of Methane via Active Learning (Final Technical Report)

Plasma pyrolysis of methane is an effective route for zero-carbon hydrogen production. Yet, soot generated from pyrolysis of hydrocarbons is detrimental to the climate and human health. There is ample experimental and theoretical evidence that suggests polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are the molecular precursors to soot particles. The reaction pathways of PAH formation are intricately dependent on a multitude of process parameters, whose kinetic mechanisms are not well-understood in plasma pyrolysis. This project aims to leverage advances in the kinetic modeling of soot formation in combustion, as well as in surrogate modeling and active learning, to systematically investigate the effects of process parameter on the kinetics of PAH formation in plasma pyrolysis of methane. To this end, we propose to use the PAH formation kinetics model developed by the PPPL/PU group based on the well-established ABF and HACA mechanisms, coupled with low-temperature plasma models. We will develop an active learning (AL) framework based on Bayesian optimization to systematically and data-efficiently explore the complex and multivariable parameter space of plasma pyrolysis in order to quantify the effects of plasma and feed parameters on the ABF and HACA kinetic pathways. AL is the branch of machine learning concerned with systematically querying samples from a system (experimental or computational) to train a data-driven model that maps design parameters to a performance criterion. We will use the data generated via AL to perform global sensitivity analysis, combined with uncertainty quantification, to elucidate the impact of different reaction pathways on minimizing formation of soot precursors. This study will result in an improved understanding of kinetics of PAH formation in plasma pyrolysis and can pave the way for more advanced mechanistic studies (e.g., soot nucleation mechanisms). Additionally, the findings will be useful for establishing practical strategies for increasing the pyrolysis efficiency and producing high-grade carbon for synthesis of nanomaterials.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Next-Generation Materials Design: Quantum Mechanics and Data-Driven Modeling

The future of materials design is rapidly advancing through the combination of quantum mechanics and data-driven modeling. These approaches integrate quantum principles with advanced data analysis, enabling precise insights into material behavior. This talk will highlight recent progress in using these methods for computational design, particularly in high-entropy alloy catalysts, emphasizing the role of hierarchical machine-learning architectures for accurate predictions. Additionally, I will discuss our work on developing machine learning interatomic potentials (MLPs) for single-element metals, metal oxides, and alloys under extreme conditions, focusing on melting behavior and phase properties at high temperatures and pressures. We have also refined our MLP models to capture dynamic surface interactions, such as CO2 and CO adsorption on MgO, using both static and molecular dynamics simulations. These models maintain high accuracy while significantly reducing computational costs compared to first-principles calculations. By enabling efficient and accurate simulations, this work supports broader community adoption, optimizes datasets for materials discovery, and extends the accessible time, size, and environmental conditions beyond the limits of experiments and traditional simulations.

machine learning↗

DOE OSTI2025

Data Structure Alchemy

In an increasingly more data-driven world, the project set out to uncover the first principles of data-structure design, chart the immense design space they form, and build automation that can synthesize an optimal structure, or even a whole storage engine, for any given workload, hardware platform, and cost target. Data structures are at the center of every computational system and are directly responsible for its performance. Two core technical thrusts were defined: 1) Mapping design spaces for key data-centric abstractions (filters, hash functions, storage-engine layouts, neural-network topologies, blockchain protocols, image layouts, etc.). 2) Developing search & synthesis algorithms, initially analytical cost models, later neural-guided bi-level optimisers that navigate sextillions of candidate designs in seconds and materialise the best one as ready‐to-run code. This report distills the key insights, accomplishments, and impact.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

VA EDH Advanced Software Pipeline Framework Report: Enhancing Automation and Scalability

The VA Environmental Determinants of Health (EDH) Advanced Software Pipeline Framework is designed to enhance the efficiency, scalability, and security of geospatial data processing workflows. This framework integrates modern data orchestration and containerization technologies, including Prefect for workflow automation, Docker for containerization, and PostgreSQL/PostGIS for geospatial data storage and analysis. It ensures standardized, reproducible, and automated data processing, supporting VA objectives related to substance use risk assessment and recovery research. The pipeline addresses key scalability and performance challenges through horizontal and vertical scaling, high-performance computing (HPC) integration, parallel processing, task caching, and dynamic resource allocation. These optimizations improve throughput and reduce latency, allowing the system to efficiently manage large and complex datasets. Additionally, security and compliance measures—such as data encryption (SSL), Role-Based Access Control (RBAC), and adherence to GDPR and HIPAA standards—safeguard sensitive information throughout data transmission and storage. A key implementation of this framework includes the automation of shelter list geolocation workflows, ensuring that up-to-date data is readily available for VA decision-making. Lessons learned from this project include the transition from in-memory processing to incremental storage writes, improving resource management and reliability. Future enhancements aim to expand automation, integrate AI-driven anomaly detection, and incorporate high-performance computing resources. This framework provides a scalable, secure, and adaptable solution for managing geospatial datasets, reinforcing the VA’s ability to support clinical and strategic initiatives through data-driven decision-making.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Optimal Control of an Oscillating Surge Wave Energy Converter

During this project, we experimentally investigated the hydrodynamics and performance of a laboratory-scale oscillating surge wave energy converter (OSWEC).We looked at how flap buoyancy and driveline losses (primarily in the form of stiction) affected the dynamics and performance of the device. In addition, we assessed the influence of flap profile (rounded vs. square edges) on OSWEC hydrodynamics. Through this, we were able to develop a deeper understanding of OSWEC performance and provide guidance on strategies to counteract artifacts that may be present in laboratory models, but are absent in field-scale devices. To do this, we tested a laboratory-scale OSWEC in the Sea Wave Environmental Lab (SWEL) wave tank at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). We ran several types of experiments to investigate the hydrodynamics and performance of the device. Overall, we achieved the overall goal of experimentally investigating the hydrodynamics and performance of this device. We discovered important and unexpected trends in performance, and collected time-resolved data to help us further investigate the underlying hydrodynamics responsible for these trends. In addition, we are currently using the time-resolved data from these experiments to build data-driven models of the dynamics, which can in turn be used to inform data-driven model predictive control of this device and address this objective in the future.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

DOE OSTI2025

Feature Based Qualification of 17-4PH Stainless Steel to Evaluate Location-Specific Variability in Wire Arc Additive Manufacturing

Qualifying large-scale metal additive manufacturing (M-AM) technologies such as wire arc additive manufacturing (WAAM) can be challenging. This is especially significant in precipitation hardened martensitic stainless steels like SS 17-4PH, where thermal histories induce location-specific microstructural variability and property anisotropy. The Department of Defense (DOD) and the United States Army Combat Capabilities Development Command Ground Vehicle Systems Center (GVSC) Ground Vehicle Materials Engineering (GVME) aim to build robust and qualified large-scale M-AM workflows that could reduce the time and cost through quick and informed evaluation, testing, and development of feedstock, processes, and parts. The report presents the findings from the collaborative efforts between Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) and the U.S. Army GVSC GVME. The aim of this project was to develop a geometric feature-based qualification framework for WAAM of SS 17-4PH components. This report outlines selection methodology of representative build geometries, optimization of WAAM process parameters, in-situ monitoring, microstructure-property evaluation, thermal simulations, as well as data visualization techniques incorporated in this project. The results from this project demonstrate a clear understanding of thermal history dependent phase evolution and consequent location-specific property variations in WAAM of SS 17-4PH. These results in conjunction with the data-driven methodologies used in this project are expected to reduce qualification timelines, improve predictability, and accelerate the development of reliable feature-based qualification strategies for part production via large-scale M-AM technologies.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Toward Drilling the Perfect Geothermal Well: An International Research Coordination Network for Geothermal Drilling Optimization Supported by Deep Machine Learning and Cloud Based Data Aggregation

The EDGE project, supported by the U.S. Department of Energy Geothermal Technologies Office under award DE-EE0008793, established a data-driven framework for improving the efficiency, cost-effectiveness, and reliability of geothermal well drilling. The project focused on developing scalable data infrastructure, advanced machine learning and probabilistic models, and integrated analytics tools to support continuous drilling optimization. A central objective was to reduce geothermal drilling costs by up to seventy percent while minimizing the risk of well failure through predictive diagnostics and adaptive planning. Over the project period, a comprehensive data repository was designed and deployed, incorporating records from over one hundred geothermal wells across varied geological settings. This repository supported both structured and unstructured data and adhered to FAIR data principles, enabling provenance tracking, quality control, and standardized metadata. The project introduced automated ingestion pipelines and a cloud-hosted platform that facilitated access to raw, processed, and derived datasets. This infrastructure served as the foundation for model development and analysis. Machine learning workflows were developed to predict key drilling metrics including rate of penetration, non-productive time, and total drilling costs. Self-organizing maps and dimensionality reduction methods were used to uncover operational patterns and outliers, while supervised learning algorithms such as random forests and deep neural networks were applied to forecast performance outcomes. The models were validated on heterogeneous datasets from both U.S. and Icelandic fields, demonstrating variable but significant predictive accuracy. The results indicated that finer temporal resolution, inclusion of lithological data, and consistency in operational annotations could substantially improve model performance. The project also implemented process mining techniques to reconstruct state-transition models from drilling event logs. These models enabled the identification of deviations from optimal workflows and provided insights into recurring failure modes. Analysis of non-productive time highlighted the impact of equipment failures, geological challenges, and human factors, offering opportunities for targeted mitigation strategies. The EDGE Dashboard was developed as a web-based expert system integrating data visualization, model outputs, and user-driven queries. It provided an accessible interface for operators to explore historical data, evaluate predicted outcomes, and compare drilling scenarios. Initial feedback from project partners suggested that the dashboard could serve as a foundation for more advanced advisory and optimization tools. Overall, the EDGE project demonstrated the feasibility and value of applying modern data science techniques to geothermal drilling. It delivered a set of interoperable tools and models that can support more efficient, lower-risk well development. The findings point toward a viable path for transitioning from advisory analytics to semi-autonomous drilling systems, contingent on continued collaboration, expanded datasets, and field validation. The project results have immediate relevance for drilling operations, data management practices, and future geothermal R&D efforts aimed at achieving reliable, cost-competitive geothermal energy at scale.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Towards a Robust Adaptive Digital Twin for Fusion Applications

The development of a digital twin system for fusion applications is essential for enhancing the prediction, analysis, and optimization of complex plasma processes. Machine learning (ML), particularly deep learning has demonstrated strong capabilities in modeling such highly nonlinear and intricate systems. However, two critical challenges limit the deployment of deep learning-based digital twins: Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) and data drift. UQ is vital for ensuring trustworthy predictions, especially in decision-support scenarios. Additionally, data-driven models are often sensitive to changes in the underlying data distribution, such as shot-to-shot variations in fusion experiments, which can lead to performance degradation over time. To address these challenges, we are developing an uncertainty-aware, adaptive digital twin framework. Our approach incorporates deep learning models enhanced with Gaussian Process approximations for predictive uncertainty estimation, coupled with an online learning mechanism that enables continuous model adaptation to new experimental data. This adaptive capability allows the data driven models to respond effectively to evolving plasma behaviors and equipment conditions. Specifically, to mitigate the effects of shot-to-shot drift, our system updates itself incrementally as new data becomes available, improving both robustness and fidelity. Our vision is to evolve this data driven model into a self-sustaining digital twin system that leverages UQ based feedback to continuously refine itself and potentially support real-time decision making. This presentation will cover a brief background on uncertainty quantification for ML, our ongoing effort on development of UQ capabilities for ML, our data science pipeline from data collection to model development and analysis and online learning framework for modeling coil deflection at DIII-D. I will also briefly touch upon opportunities and challenges in development of digital twin framework.

Sammuli, Brian [General Atomics]↗

DOE OSTI2025

Comparing Outdoor to Indoor Performance for Bifacial Modules Affected by Polarization-Type Potential-Induced Degradation

Bifacial photovoltaic (PV) modules have the advantage of using light reflected off of the ground to contribute to power production. Predicting the energy gain is challenging and requires complex models to do so accurately. Often, module degradation over time is neglected in models for the sake of simplicity or is underestimated. Comparing outdoor and indoor current–voltage (I–V) performance for bifacial modules is more challenging than for monofacial modules, as there are additional variables to consider such as rear albedo non-uniformity, cell mismatch, and their effects on temperature. This challenge is compounded when heterogeneous degradation modes occur, such as polarization-type potential-induced degradation (PID-p). To examine the effects of PID-p on I–V predictions using an empirical data-driven approach, 16 bifacial PERC modules are installed outdoors on racks with different albedo conditions. A subset is exposed to high-voltage biases of −1500 V or +1500 V. Outdoor data are traced at irradiance ranges of 150–250 W/m 2 , 500–600 W/m 2 , and 900–1000 W/m 2 . These curves are corrected using control module temperature, wire resistivity, and module resistance measured indoors. We examine several methods to transform indoor I–V curves to accurately, and more simply than existing methods, approximate outdoor performance for bifacial modules without and with varying levels of PID-p degradation. This way, bifacial performance modeling can be more accessible and informed by fielded, degraded modules. Distributions of percent errors between indoor and outdoor performance parameters and Mean Absolute Percent Errors (MAPEs) are used to assess method quality. Results including low-irradiance data (150–250 W/m 2 ) are discussed but are filtered for quantifying method quality as these data introduce substantial errors. The method with the most optimal tradeoff between low MAPE and analysis simplicity involves measuring the front side of a module indoors at an irradiance equal to plane-of-array irradiance plus the product of module bifaciality and albedo irradiance. This method gives MAPE values of 1–6.5% for non-degraded and 1.6–5.9% for PID-p degraded module performance.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Equation-Free Coarse Control of Distributed Parameter Systems via Local Neural Operators

The control of high-dimensional distributed parameter systems (DPS) remains a challenge when explicit coarse-grained equations are unavailable. Classical equation-free (EF) approaches rely on fine-scale simulators treated as black-box timesteppers. However, repeated simulations for steady-state computation, linearization, and control design are often computationally prohibitive, or the microscopic timestepper may not even be available, leaving us with data as the only resource. We propose a data-driven alternative that uses local neural operators, trained on spatiotemporal microscopic/mesoscopic data, to obtain efficient short-time solution operators. These surrogates are employed within Krylov subspace methods to compute coarse steady and unsteady-states, while also providing Jacobian information in a matrix-free manner. Krylov-Arnoldi iterations then approximate the dominant eigenspectrum, yielding reduced models that capture the open-loop slow dynamics without explicit Jacobian assembly. Both discrete-time Linear Quadratic Regulator (dLQR) and pole-placement (PP) controllers are based on this reduced system and lifted back to the full nonlinear dynamics, thereby closing the feedback loop.

93B52, 93C20, 47N70, 65J15, 65M32, 68T07, 68T20, 6↗

DOE OSTI2023

Adaptable Data Driven Model Predictive Control for Heat Pipe Microreactors

To establish a technical basis for self-regulating microreactors, a model predictive control (MPC) system is investigated to proactively respond to anomalies and disturbances in anticipation of potential deviations from operating setpoints. Due to the difficulty of developing a physics-based surrogate model that can accurately match plant data in various operating conditions, machine learning algorithms are used in MPC, which allow for learning from both simulation and operation data, thus efficiently describing the targeted transient with arbitrary accuracy. However, one of the biggest concerns in applying ML algorithms like artificial neural networks (ANNs) is that the predictive capabilities of ANN are limited by training data. If there are gaps between the training and target domain, the accuracy of an ANN can degrade significantly when it is used to predict unseen data. To improve the predictive capability of ANN and enable a confident use of data-driven MPCs outside the training data, this study proposes an adaptive data-driven MPC framework. The system will monitor the discrepancy between plant responses and surrogate predictions, fine-tune the ANN-based surrogate when a large discrepancy is detected, and continue MPC operation with updated surrogates. The framework is demonstrated on a point kinetic model for microreactors. The hyperparameters of the update strategy, including layers to update, error thresholds, learning rate discount, and number of data points used for fine-tuning, are optimized so the simulated microreactor is able to follow changes in setpoint with the smallest of deviations.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2025

EVs@Scale Next-Gen Profiles - Fleet Utilization 2024

As part of the U.S. Department of Energy’s EVs@Scale initiative, the Next-Gen Profiles (NGP) project provides a comprehensive, data-driven analysis of electric vehicle (EV) and electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE) operations across real-world fleet deployments. This paper presents findings from the NGP’s Fleet Utilization study, which investigates operational behavior and asset usage across seventeen EV fleets and two EVSE fleets, encompassing a wide range of vehicle types and use cases. Data collected from diverse sources—varying in format and temporal resolution—are first reformatted into a unified structure. From this harmonized dataset, a suite of rigorously defined performance metrics is calculated at an hourly cadence, enabling consistent cross-comparison of charging, routing, and other key operational behaviors. Amid rapidly increasing EV adoption and growing demands for energy-efficient fleet operations, the analysis reveals clear utilization trends—including diurnal and weekly activity cycles, differences in short versus long charging session dependencies, and route-specific energy usage patterns. These findings highlight the need for tailored infrastructure strategies and the deployment of advanced energy management systems, such as Distributed Energy Resource Management Systems (DERMS) and Site Energy Management Systems (SEMS), which can optimize charging schedules and mitigate peak loads. By leveraging anonymized, harmonized datasets and standardized metrics, this study offers critical insights into fleet behavior and performance, providing a foundation to improve operational efficiency, reduce costs, and enable the scalable deployment of electrified transportation.

Wells, Landon↗

DOE OSTI2024

Individual Data Sparsity in Smart Thermostat Big Data: Impacts on Modeling Thermostat Use Behavior Dynamics

This study explores the impacts of the sparsity of individual thermostat interaction data on modeling thermostat use behavior dynamics using a dataset of over 100,000 smart thermostats. In developing a data-driven model of Thermal Frustration Theory (TFT), we investigate the challenges and trade-offs in clustering occupant data to enhance predictive accuracy. Our findings reveal that a single, aggregated model fails to capture the diversity of occupant behaviors, resulting in extremely poor prediction performance. Conversely, excessive clustering exacerbates data sparsity, undermining model reliability. By identifying an optimal clustering strategy, we achieve a balance that significantly improves the prediction of manual setpoint changes during demand response (DR) events, enhancing energy management and occupant comfort

Fannon, David↗