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DOE OSTI2025

Rhizosphere Microbiome Diversity Potentially Supports Robust Nature of Field Pennycress ( Thlaspi arvense L.) in Dryland Cropping Systems of Eastern Washington

ABSTRACT Field pennycress ( Thlaspi arvense L.) is an annual in the Brassicaceae family and is currently being developed as an oilseed intermediate crop suitable for renewable biodiesel and jet fuel. It displays many desirable characteristics for this role including cold tolerance, a rapid life cycle, and a seed fatty acid profile conducive to bioenergy generation. These traits make field pennycress favorable for winter oilseed cultivation in the inland Pacific Northwest (iPNW). Simultaneously, intermediate crops are an increasingly recognized component of both agronomic sustainability and soil health management. Intermediate crops enhance soil microbial diversity, which benefits both soil and plant health. To understand the impact of field pennycress on soil microbial diversity, two natural accessions and seven experimental accessions were grown at three sites in Eastern Washington. Aboveground biomass and rhizosphere soil were then collected. Soil genomic DNA was extracted from rhizosphere samples and used to generate an amplicon library for bacterial (16S) and fungal (ITS) rRNA sequences. The resulting libraries were analyzed in QIIME2, which revealed that not only did the fad2 deficient line from the Spring32‐10 background have significantly increased aboveground biomass production compared to other pennycress genotypes, but also displayed significantly higher β‐diversity in the rhizosphere community specifically at the site experiencing the driest conditions. ANCOM analysis showed that multiple sequences similar to beneficial plant and soil health enhancing organisms such as Trichoderma spirale , Pseudomonas spp., and Methylobacterium goesingense were found to be enriched in the microbiome of the fad2 Spring32‐10 background also at that site. To add additional context to rhizosphere community data, root exudates from two pennycress genotypes were captured in magenta boxes and analyzed using HPLC. Future work will expand our understanding of the mechanisms by which field pennycress creates diversity in the rhizosphere, thus expanding our ability to cultivate this crop in the iPNW.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Shed Light in the DaRk LineagES of the Fungal Tree of Life—STRES

The polyphyletic group of black fungi within the Ascomycota (Arthoniomycetes, Dothideomycetes, and Eurotiomycetes) is ubiquitous in natural and anthropogenic habitats. Partly because of their dark, melanin-based pigmentation, black fungi are resistant to stresses including UV- and ionizing-radiation, heat and desiccation, toxic metals, and organic pollutants. Consequently, they are amongst the most stunning extremophiles and poly-extreme-tolerant organisms on Earth. Even though ca. 60 black fungal genomes have been sequenced to date, [mostly in the family Herpotrichiellaceae (Eurotiomycetes)], the class Dothideomycetes that hosts the largest majority of extremophiles has only been sparsely sampled. By sequencing up to 92 species that will become reference genomes, the “Shed light in The daRk lineagES of the fungal tree of life” (STRES) project will cover a broad collection of black fungal diversity spread throughout the Fungal Tree of Life. Interestingly, the STRES project will focus on mostly unsampled genera that display different ecologies and life-styles (e.g., ant- and lichen-associated fungi, rock-inhabiting fungi, etc.). With a resequencing strategy of 10- to 15-fold depth coverage of up to ~550 strains, numerous new reference genomes will be established. To identify metabolites and functional processes, these new genomic resources will be enriched with metabolomics analyses coupled with transcriptomics experiments on selected species under various stress conditions (salinity, dryness, UV radiation, oligotrophy). The data acquired will serve as a reference and foundation for establishing an encyclopedic database for fungal metagenomics as well as the biology, evolution, and ecology of the fungi in extreme environments.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Analyzing Mass Spectrometry Imaging Data of 13C-Labeled Phospholipids in Camelina sativa and Thlaspi arvense (Pennycress) Embryos

The combination of 13C-isotopic labeling and mass spectrometry imaging (MSI) offers an approach to analyze metabolic flux in situ. However, combining isotopic labeling and MSI presents technical challenges ranging from sample preparation, label incorporation, data collection, and analysis. Isotopic labeling and MSI individually create large, complex data sets, and this is compounded when both methods are combined. Therefore, analyzing isotopically labeled MSI data requires streamlined procedures to support biologically meaningful interpretations. Using currently available software and techniques, here we describe a workflow to analyze 13C-labeled isotopologues of the membrane lipid and storage oil lipid intermediate―phosphatidylcholine (PC). Our results with embryos of the oilseed crops, Camelina sativa and Thlaspi arvense (pennycress), demonstrated greater 13C-isotopic labeling in the cotyledons of developing embryos compared with the embryonic axis. Greater isotopic enrichment in PC molecular species with more saturated and longer chain fatty acids suggest different flux patterns related to fatty acid desaturation and elongation pathways. The ability to evaluate MSI data of isotopically labeled plant embryos will facilitate the potential to investigate spatial aspects of metabolic flux in situ.

metabolomics↗

DOE OSTI2022

The Solar System calcium isotopic composition inferred from Ryugu samples

The Hayabusa2 spacecraft has returned samples from the Cb-type asteroid (162173) Ryugu to Earth. Previous petrological and chemical analyses support a close link between Ryugu and CI chondrites that are presumed to be chemically the most primitive meteorites with a solar-like composition. However, Ryugu samples are highly enriched in Ca compared to typical CI chondrites. To identify the cause of this discrepancy, here we report stable Ca isotopic data (expressed as δ 44/40 Ca SRM915a ) for returned Ryugu samples collected from two sites. We found that samples from both sites have similar δ 44/40 Ca SRM915a (0.58 ± 0.03 ‰ and 0.55 ± 0.08 ‰, 2 s.d.) that fall within the range defined by CIs. This isotopic similarity suggests that the Ca budget of CIs and Ryugu samples is dominated by carbonates, and the variably higher Ca contents in Ryugu samples are due to the abundant carbonates. Precipitation of carbonates on Ryugu likely coincided with a major episode of aqueous activity dated to have occurred ~5 Myr after Solar System formation. Based on the pristine Ryugu samples, the average δ 44/40 Ca SRM915a of the Solar System is defined to be 0.57 ± 0.04 ‰ (2 s.d.).

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

NOvA Dual-Baseline Search for Active-to-Sterile Neutrino Oscillations using Neutrino- and Antineutrino-Enriched Samples

We report a search for neutrino oscillations to sterile neutrinos in the NOvA detectors under a model with three active and one sterile neutrinos. This search simultaneously fits data in the two NOvA detectors and is the first from NOvA to use both neutrino- and antineutrino-mode beams, with exposures of $26.61\times10^{20}$ and $12.50\times10^{20}$ protons on target, respectively. There is no evidence for sterile neutrinos in the data and we are able to exclude regions of parameter space that were allowed by previous experiments, including most of the allowed region reported by IceCube.

Abubakar, S. [Erciyes U.]↗

DOE OSTI2022

Evaluation of Oak Ridge National Laboratory Health Physics Research Reactor Operation Data for Critical Benchmark Creation

The Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) Health Physics Research Reactor (HPRR) was a research reactor designed and built at ORNL in 1961. The critical assembly used a highly enriched uranium and molybdenum alloy as the fuel and could be operated in steady-state or burst modes. The HPRR has recently been the object of an investigation to create a criticality benchmark. Such benchmarks are very important, as they are used primarily to show the accuracy of newly developed modeling codes and to help experimental validation and reactor licensing. The evaluated experiments considered in this paper were carried out between 1974 and 1986 from various HPRR activities such as steady-state subcritical, steady-state critical, and burst prompt super-critical operations of the reactor for dosimetry, irradiation, or training purposes. By using the HPRR experimental logbook information and the as-built drawings of the critical assembly, a highly detailed model of the HPRR was created with SCALE 6.2.4/KENO-VI, and a first version of a critical benchmark of the HPRR was developed following the International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project (ICSBEP) guidelines for thorough description and uncertainty/sensitivity quantification. Unfortunately, in most of the evaluated experiments, the obtained difference between calculated and experimental k eff is around 1,000 pcm, corresponding to a relative error of approximately 1%, beyond the quality standards of the ICSBEP recommending a relative error below 0.1%. Moreover, the derived experimental uncertainty is high, around 4% relative, mainly due to the U-Mo fuel density uncertainty, but also from numerous other factors. For these reasons, the creation of a valuable critical benchmark from HPRR operation data is thus far compromised. In this paper, the different steps of the experiments’ evaluation are summarized, and the reasons for the experimental/calculation discrepancies and potential ways to solve them are explored. This paper also aims to remind us always to exercise considerable care when performing experimental work, and to record all the data possible for potential future uses.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2021

SCALE 6.2.4 Validation for Light Water Reactor Decay Heat Analysis

Energy release from the decay of radionuclides in nuclear fuel after its discharge from reactor is a critical parameter for design, safety, and licensing analyses of used nuclear fuel storage, transportation, and repository systems. Well-validated computational tools and nuclear data are essential for decay heat prediction. This paper summarizes the validation of the SCALE nuclear analysis code system version 6.2.4, used with ENDF/B-VII.1 libraries, for decay heat analysis of light water reactor used fuel. The experimental data used for validation include full-assembly decay heat measurements that cover assembly burnups of 5 to 51 GWd/tonne U, cooling times after discharge in the 2- to 27-year range, and initial fuel enrichments up to 4 wt% 235U. The comparison between calculated (C) and experimental (E) decay heat showed very good agreement, with an average C/E over all considered measurements of 1.006 (σ = 0.016) for pressurized water reactor and 0.984 (σ = 0.077) for boiling water reactor assembly measurements. The effect of using assembly-average versus axially varying modeling data on the calculated decay heat, important to thermal analyses for used fuel transportation and storage systems, is discussed.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Data Mining of Groundwater to Identify MAGs with Methane, Propane and Toluene Monooxygenases

Whole genome sequencing datasets, involving more than 600 groundwater samples, from nine countries, were analyzed to identify metagenome assembled genomes (MAGs) containing full operons for propane monooxygenase, soluble methane monooxygease, toluene monooxygenase and particulate ammonia/methane monooxygenase. The enzymes encoded by these genes are a focus of interest because of their ability to degrade common groundwater contaminants. Due to the large amount of data, sequence analyses involved more than 80 individual KBase narratives. The approach followed the KBase tutorial called "Metagenome-Assembled Genome Extraction from a Compost Microbiome Enrichment" The generated MAGs were exported from each individual narrative into separate summary KBase narratives for each monooxygenase. Three KBase narratives were generated for particulate ammonia/methane monooxygenase, due to the large number of MAGs identified.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Integral Experiment Final Design for Thermal/Epithermal eXperiments (TEX) using Highly Enriched Uranium with Polyethylene at Low Temperature (IER-479 CED-2 Report)

The goal of IER-479 is to design uranium critical experiments that can be used to validate low temperature cross sections and criticality safety analyses over multiple neutron energy regimes. Currently, there are no benchmarks in the International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project (ICSBEP) handbook at temperatures lower than room temperature (International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project Handbook, 2019). However, there are many needs for validation of criticality safety analysis at lower temperatures, including meeting transportation requirements and operations conducted outside or in unheated facilities. Additionally, NCSP has funded North Carolina State (NCSU) to generate new thermal scattering laws, including at lower temperatures, and the lack of integral benchmarks impedes data testing of these new cross sections. To address these needs, this report will present a critical experiment design covering various fission energy regimes with a goal temperature of -40°C (-40°F), which is based on the lower bound of expected non-cryogenic operational temperatures. The goal of the U.S. Nuclear Criticality Safety Program’s (NCSP) Thermal/Epithermal eXperiments (TEX) is to design and conduct new critical experiments to address high priority nuclear data needs from the nuclear criticality safety and nuclear data communities. The TEX program includes two series of baseline experimental configurations, one based on plutonium fuel (plutonium-aluminum Zero Power Physics Reactor (ZPPR) plates) and the other based on uranium fuel (highly enriched uranium (HEU) plates), that are moderated with varying thickness of polyethylene to create assemblies which span the thermal, intermediate, and fast fission energy regimes. The configurations are designed to be easily modified (for example, to add diluent materials of interest) to allow for efficient generation of additional benchmark configurations and allow for added nuclear data testing utility when comparing modified configurations to baseline configurations. The goal of IER-479 is to use the TEX-HEU concept (stack of HEU plates and polyethylene moderators) to design a critical experiment that can be used to validate low temperature cross sections and criticality safety analyses.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2025

CD206 + Trem2 + macrophage accumulation in the murine knee joint after injury is associated with protection against post-traumatic osteoarthritis in MRL/MpJ mice

Post-traumatic osteoarthritis (PTOA) is a painful joint disease characterized by the degradation of bone, cartilage, and other connective tissues in the joint. PTOA is initiated by trauma to joint-stabilizing tissues, such as the anterior cruciate ligament, medial meniscus, or by intra-articular fractures. In humans, ~50% of joint injuries progress to PTOA, while the rest spontaneously resolve. To better understand molecular programs contributing to PTOA development or resolution, we examined injury-induced fluctuations in immune cell populations and transcriptional shifts by single-cell RNA sequencing of synovial joints in PTOA-susceptible C57BL/6J (B6) and PTOA-resistant MRL/MpJ (MRL) mice. We identified significant differences in monocyte and macrophage subpopulations between MRL and B6 joints. A potent myeloid-driven anti-inflammatory response was observed in MRL injured joints that significantly contrasted the pro-inflammatory signaling seen in B6 joints. Multiple CD206 + macrophage populations classically described as M2 were found enriched in MRL injured joints. These CD206 + macrophages also robustly expressed Trem2 , a receptor involved in inflammation and myeloid cell activation. These data suggest that the PTOA resistant MRL mouse strain displays an enhanced capacity of clearing debris and apoptotic cells induced by inflammation after injury due to an increase in activated M2 macrophages within the synovial tissue and joint space.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

GADRAS-DRF Enhancements for Safeguards – Custom Peak Fitting to Enhance Model Fitting and Isotopics

One major software update was accomplished within the Gamma Detector Response and Analysis Software-Detector Response Function (GADRAS-DRF) package. This update allows users to adjust individual peak fits for use in subsequent analysis processes within GADRAS-DRF. A graphical user interface (GUI) was implemented so users can see the effect of their fit adjustments on the spectrum. This new feature will enhance the capability of the previously funded auto-enrichment and peak-based 1D model fit feature that was implemented in FY23 (Fiscal Year). Isotopic analysis was performed using M400 data obtained from uranium standards and the isotopic assessment is given with and without manual peak adjustments.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Multiplexed Quantitative Proteomics in Prostate Cancer Biomarker Development

Prostate cancer (PCa) is the most common non-skin cancer among men in the United States. However, the widely used protein biomarker in PCa, prostate-specific antigen (PSA), while useful for initial detection, its use alone cannot detect aggressive PCa and can lead to overtreatment. This chapter provides an overview of PCa protein biomarker development. It reviews the state-of-the-art liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry-based proteomics technologies for PCa biomarker development, such as enhancing the detection sensitivity of low-abundance proteins through antibody-based or antibody-independent protein/peptide enrichment, enriching post-translational modifications such as glycosylation as well as information-rich extracellular vesicles, and increasing accuracy and throughput using advanced data acquisition methodologies. This chapter also summarizes recent PCa biomarker validation studies that applied those techniques in diverse specimen types, including cell lines, tissues, proximal fluids, urine, and blood, developing novel protein biomarkers for various clinical applications, including early detection and diagnosis, prognosis, and therapeutic intervention of PCa.

Prostate cancer, SRM, PRM, DIA, protein biomarker↗

DOE OSTI2020

Using SIMS to decode noisy stratigraphic δ 13 C variations in Ediacaran carbonates

Carbonate carbon isotope (δ 13 C carb ) chemostratigraphy is a valuable tool in Precambrian stratigraphic correlation. The effectiveness of this tool rests on the assumption that δ 13 C carb data record global seawater signals. However, in some cases δ 13 C carb data exhibit rapid and noisy stratigraphic variations that may have been influenced by authigenic or diagenetic carbonate minerals. To assess the contribution of non-primary minerals towards bulk carbonate carbon isotope values, we acquired SIMS (secondary ion mass spectrometry) δ 13 C carb data, electron microscopic data, and CL (cathodoluminescence) microscopic data from two Ediacaran successions—the lower Member II of the Doushantuo Formation in South China and the Mooifontein Member of the Zaris Formation in southern Namibia. The Doushantuo samples came from a stratigraphic interval with noisy meter-scale δ 13 C carb variations of up to 10‰, whereas the Mooifontein Member is characterized by consistent δ13Ccarb values with limited meter-scale variations of less than ~4‰. Our data show that the meter-scale stratigraphic variations in δ 13 C carb are also mirrored in the SIMS data at μm-mm scales in both Doushantuo and Mooifontein samples. In the Doushantuo samples, SIMS δ 13 C carb values of authigenic calcite vary by up to 10‰ over μm-mm scales and can be either higher or lower than those of the co-existing dolomite matrix, which also appears to be affected by authigenic carbonate on the basis of petrographic observation. Bulk-sample δ 13 C carb values measured on powders microdrilled from the same SIMS specimens are within the range of SIMS δ 13 C carb values. Thus, we infer that bulk-sample δ 13 C carb values of Doushantuo samples represent mixtures of different carbonate components. The Doushantuo and Mooifontein SIMS δ 13 C carb data validate the traditional method of using chemostratigraphic consistency to evaluate authigenic/diagenetic alteration, but given that secondary phases may be 13 C-enriched relative to matrix carbonate, caution is warranted when taking maximum values to approximate primary chemostratigraphic trends.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

PROSPECT-II physics opportunities

We report the precision reactor oscillation and spectrum experiment, PROSPECT, has made world-leading measurements of reactor antineutrinos at short baselines. In its first phase, conducted at the high flux isotope reactor (HFIR) at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, PROSPECT produced some of the strongest limits on eV-scale sterile neutrinos, made a precision measurement of the reactor antineutrino spectrum from 235 U, and demonstrated the observation of reactor antineutrinos in an aboveground detector with good energy resolution and well-controlled backgrounds. The PROSPECT collaboration is now preparing an upgraded detector, PROSPECT-II, to probe yet unexplored parameter space for sterile neutrinos and contribute to a full resolution of the reactor antineutrino anomaly, a longstanding puzzle in neutrino physics. By pressing forward on the world’s most precise measurement of the 235 U antineutrino spectrum and measuring the absolute flux of antineutrinos from 235 U, PROSPECT-II will sharpen a tool with potential value for basic neutrino science, nuclear data validation, and nuclear security applications. Following a two-year deployment at HFIR, an additional PROSPECT-II deployment at a low enriched uranium reactor could make complementary measurements of the neutrino yield from other fission isotopes. PROSPECT-II provides a unique opportunity to continue the study of reactor antineutrinos at short baselines, taking advantage of demonstrated elements of the original PROSPECT design and close access to a highly enriched uranium reactor core.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Next-generation yeast-two-hybrid analysis with Y2H-SCORES identifies novel interactors of the MLA immune receptor

Protein-protein interaction networks are one of the most effective representations of cellular behavior. In order to build these models, high-throughput techniques are required. Next-generation interaction screening (NGIS) protocols that combine yeast two-hybrid (Y2H) with deep sequencing are promising approaches to generate interactome networks in any organism. However, challenges remain to mining reliable information from these screens and thus, limit its broader implementation. Here, we present a computational framework, designated Y2H-SCORES, for analyzing high-throughput Y2H screens. Y2H-SCORES considers key aspects of NGIS experimental design and important characteristics of the resulting data that distinguish it from RNA-seq expression datasets. Three quantitative ranking scores were implemented to identify interacting partners, comprising: 1) significant enrichment under selection for positive interactions, 2) degree of interaction specificity among multi-bait comparisons, and 3) selection of in-frame interactors. Using simulation and an empirical dataset, we provide a quantitative assessment to predict interacting partners under a wide range of experimental scenarios, facilitating independent confirmation by one-to-one bait-prey tests. Simulation of Y2H-NGIS enabled us to identify conditions that maximize detection of true interactors, which can be achieved with protocols such as prey library normalization, maintenance of larger culture volumes and replication of experimental treatments. Y2H-SCORES can be implemented in different yeast-based interaction screenings, with an equivalent or superior performance than existing methods. Proof-of-concept was demonstrated by discovery and validation of novel interactions between the barley nucleotide-binding leucine-rich repeat (NLR) immune receptor MLA6, and fourteen proteins, including those that function in signaling, transcriptional regulation, and intracellular trafficking.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Delayed Critical Enriched Uranium Metal, 7-in.-diam. Cylinder with Thin Stainless Steel Top and Bottom Reflectors

Three 7 in. diameter highly enriched uranium (HEU; 93.17 wt % 235 U) metal cylinders were assembled on the vertical assembly machine of the Oak Ridge Critical Experiments Facility (ORCEF) with thin stainless steel reflectors (0.5, 1, and 2 in. thick) on the top and bottom. These experiments were performed during January 13–25, 1965, and used seven operational days at ORCEF. Before these experiments, unreflected and unmoderated 7 in. diameter HEU metal cylinders had been assembled to delayed criticality at ORCEF, and the results were benchmarked in HEU-MET-FAST-051. In addition to the critical experiments, the prompt neutron decay constant was measured via the Rossi-α technique, and those results are also presented in this report. To achieve near-delayed-critical systems, 5 × 5 × 0.03125 in. rectangular uranium metal parts were used on top of 7 in. diameter cylinders inside the top reflector. The delayed critical configuration from the three experiments described herein are acceptable for use as criticality safety benchmark experiments for the International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Program (ICSBEP), coordinated by the Nuclear Energy Agency, once the uncertainty analysis is completed. Based on previous ICSBEP benchmarks with this enriched uranium metal at ORCEF, the uncertainty in $k_{eff}$ is expected to be as low as ±0.0002. The prompt neutron time decay data could be the basis of an International Reactor Physics Evaluation Program benchmark.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Advanced Fuel Cycle Cost Basis Report: Module D1-4 and Module D1-5 Ceramic Pelletized Sodium-Cooled Fast Reactor (SFR) Fuel Fabrication Ceramic Vibrocompacted Fuel Fabrication

This is a cost module that is part of the Advanced Fuel Cycle -- Cost Basis Report. Module D1-4: Nature of this module update (Rev 1) from previous advanced fuel cycle cost basis reports (AFCCBRs): new life cycle cost data on U,Pu SFR mixed oxide (MOX) fuels is derived from the Nonproliferation Assessment Systems Analysis Program (NASAP) conducted in the late 1970s. Highassay low-enriched uranium (HALEU) ceramic fuel is also discussed in more detail compared to earlier AFC-CBRs, since some advanced SFR concepts currently under development will require this HALEU fuel type for startup. Module D1-5: Nature of this FY-21 module update from previous AFC-CBRs: this module includes a few new references and a somewhat expanded discussion of vibrocompaction fuel fabrication technology. The WIT values for VIPAC are pegged directly to those for conventional LWR and SFR pelletized U,Pu MOX (note that this module now includes VIPAC MOX fuel for LWRs in addition to SFRs). Based on information from Russia, where VIPAC has been studied extensively, the unit costs are expressed as a percentage of those in the new updated Module D1-2 (pelletized U,Pu MOX) and new updated Module D1-4 (pelletized U,Pu MOX) for large NOAK fabrication facilities of the same production capacity. Since both ceramic pelletized MOX Modules D1-2 and D1-4 benefitted from analysis of 1970s NASAP data, by extension this Module D1-5 also benefits.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2024

STITCHES: a Python package to amalgamate existing Earth system model output into new scenario realizations

Understanding the interaction between humans and the Earth system is a computationally daunting task, with many possible approaches depending on resources available and questions of interest. For example, state-of-the-art impact models require decade-long time series of relatively high frequency, spatially resolved and often multiple variables representing climatic impact-drivers (Ruane et al., 2022). Most commonly these are derived from the outputs of detailed, computationally expensive Earth System Models (ESMs) run according to a standard, limited set of future scenarios, the latest being the SSP-RCPs run under CMIP6/ScenarioMIP (Eyring et al., 2016; O’Neill et al., 2016). At the time of writing, O’Neill et al. (2016) has been cited more than 1750 times and Eyring et al. (2016) more than 5000 times, highlighting the broad, general applications of this data. Often, however, impact modeling seeks to explore new scenarios that were not part of the ScenarioMIP protocol, and/or needs a larger set of initial condition ensemble members than are typically available to quantify the effects of ESM internal variability. In addition, the recognition that the human and Earth systems are fundamentally intertwined, and may feature potentially significant feedback loops, is making integrated, simultaneous modeling of the coupled human-Earth system increasingly necessary, if computationally challenging with most existing tools (Thornton et al., 2017). For impact modelers, climate model emulators can be the answer to meet both the needs of: 1) creating realizations for novel scenarios and 2) achieving a simplified, computationally tractable representation of ESM behavior in a coupled human-Earth system modeling framework. We proposed a new, comprehensive approach to such emulation of gridded, multivariate ESM outputs for novel scenarios without the computational cost of a full ESM, STITCHES (Tebaldi et al., 2022). The approach outlined in Tebaldi et al. (2022) should be extensible to future CMIP eras, although the STITCHES software at present is strictly focused on CMIP6/ScenarioMIP data hosted on Pangeo (https://gallery.pangeo.io/repos/pangeo-gallery/cmip6/). The corresponding STITCHES Python package uses existing archives of ESMs’ scenario experiments from CMIP6/ScenarioMIP to construct gridded, multivariate realizations of new scenarios provided by reduced complexity climate models (Hartin et al., 2015; Meinshausen et al., 2011; Smith et al., 2018), or to enrich existing initial condition ensembles. Its output provides the same characteristics as the emulated ESM output: multivariate (spanning potentially all variables that the ESM has saved), spatially resolved (down to the native grid of the ESM), and preserving the same high frequency as the original data. A new realization of multiple variables can be generated on the order of minutes with STITCHES, rather than the hours or sometimes days that ESMs require.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗