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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 307 records · Page 17
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Discrete-Direct Model Calibration and Uncertainty Propagation Method Confirmed on Multi-Parameter Plasticity Model Calibrated to Sparse Random Field Data

A discrete direct (DD) model calibration and uncertainty propagation approach is explained and demonstrated on a 4-parameter Johnson-Cook (J-C) strain-rate dependent material strength model for an aluminum alloy. The methodology's performance is characterized in many trials involving four random realizations of strain-rate dependent material-test data curves per trial, drawn from a large synthetic population. The J-C model is calibrated to particular combinations of the data curves to obtain calibration parameter sets which are then propagated to “Can Crush” structural model predictions to produce samples of predicted response variability. These are processed with appropriate sparse-sample uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods to estimate various statistics of response with an appropriate level of conservatism. This is tested on 16 output quantities (von Mises stresses and equivalent plastic strains) and it is shown that important statistics of the true variabilities of the 16 quantities are bounded with a high success rate that is reasonably predictable and controllable. The DD approach has several advantages over other calibration-UQ approaches like Bayesian inference for capturing and utilizing the information obtained from typically small numbers of replicate experiments in model calibration situations—especially when sparse replicate functional data are involved like force–displacement curves from material tests. The DD methodology is straightforward and efficient for calibration and propagation problems involving aleatory and epistemic uncertainties in calibration experiments, models, and procedures.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

A High Performance Sparse Tensor Algebra Compiler in MLIR

Sparse tensor algebra is widely used in many applications, including scientific computing, machine learning, and data analytics. The performance of sparse tensor algebra kernels strongly depends on the intrinsic characteristics of the input tensors, hence many storage formats are designed for tensors to achieve optimal performance for particular applications/architectures, which makes it challenging to implement and optimize every tensor operation of interest on a given architecture. We propose a tensor algebra domain-specific language (DSL) and compiler framework to automatically generate kernels for mixed sparse-dense tensor algebra operations. The proposed DSL provides high-level programming abstractions that resemble the familiar Einstein notation to represent tensor algebra operations. The compiler introduces a new Sparse Tensor Algebra dialect built on top of LLVM's extensible MLIR compiler infrastructure for efficient code generation while covering a wide range of tensor storage formats. Our compiler also leverages input-dependent code optimization to enhance data locality for better performance. Our results show that the performance of automatically generated kernels outperforms the state-of-the-art sparse tensor algebra compiler, with up to 20.92x, 6.39x, and 13.9x performance improvement over state-of-the-art tensor algebra compilers, for parallel SpMV, SpMM, and TTM, respectively.

Tian, Ruiqin↗
DOE OSTI2020

Analysis of 83m Kr prompt scintillation signals in the PIXeY detector

Prompt scintillation signals from 83m Kr calibration sources are a useful metric to calibrate the spatial variation of light collection efficiency and electric field magnitude of a two phase liquid-gas xenon time projection chamber. Because 83m Kr decays in two steps, there are two prompt scintillation pulses for each calibration event, denoted S1a and S1b. We study the ratio of S1b to S1a signal sizes in the Particle Identification in Xenon at Yale (PIXeY) experiment and its dependence on the time separation between the two signals (Δ t), notably its increase at low Δ t. Finally, in PIXeY data, the Δ t dependence of S1b/S1a is observed to exhibit two exponential components: one with a time constant of 0.05 ± 0.02 μ s, which can be attributed to processing effects and pulse overlap and one with a time constant of 10.2 ± 2.2 μs that increases in amplitude with electric drift field, the origin of which is not yet understood.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Contrastive learning for robust representations of neutrino data

In neutrino physics, analyses often depend on large simulated datasets, making it essential for models to generalize effectively to real-world detector data. Contrastive learning, a well-established technique in deep learning, offers a promising solution to this challenge. By applying controlled data augmentations to simulated data, contrastive learning enables the extraction of robust and transferable features. This improves the ability of models trained on simulations to adapt to real experimental data distributions. In this paper, we investigate the application of contrastive learning methods in the context of neutrino physics. Through a combination of empirical evaluations and theoretical insights, we demonstrate how contrastive learning enhances model performance and adaptability. Additionally, we compare it to other domain adaptation techniques, highlighting the unique advantages of contrastive learning for this field. Published by the American Physical Society 2025

Wilkinson, Alex (ORCID:0000000253404506)↗
DOE OSTI2022

High temperature stability and transport characteristics of hydrogen in alumina via multiscale computation

Here, the impact of hydrogen charge states on the stability and transport characteristics of hydrogen interstitials in alumina polymorphs is evaluated by multiscale computational methods including density functional theory (DFT), ab initio molecular dynamics (AIMD) and machine learned force fields. Thermodynamic calculations show that the protonic H i +1 interstitial is the most stable defect species for most values of the electronic bandgap in both and amorphous alumina (Al 2 O 3 ). Further, active learned Gaussian approximation potentials (GAP) were developed using AIMD data to study temperature dependent long time proton diffusion in alumina. Diffusivity calculations from GAP-MD simulations are found to be comparable with of the AIMD data, while being ~340 times faster and scalable to larger systems. Comparisons with diffusivity values for other interstitial charge states (H i 0 and H i -1 ) and published experimental literature indicate that H i +1 diffusion is the likely mechanism of hydrogen transport. A good agreement is obtained between H i +1 diffusivity calculated in α-Al 2 O 3 from DFT: 5.05 10 -3 exp(-0.81 eV/k B /T) cm 2 /s and reported experiment: 9.7X10 -4 exp(-0.83 eV/k B /T) cm 2 /s. Computationally and experimentally calculated energy barriers (0.81 and 0.83 eV respectively) only differ by 2.5%. Similarly, the pre-exponential diffusion coefficients only differ by 0.5 orders of magnitude. Moreover, the diffusivity of H i +1 in amorphous Al 2 O 3 in the 1000–2000 K range is calculated to be 2.53X10 -2 exp(-0.89 eV/k B /T), just one order of magnitude higher than the corresponding value in α-Al 2 O 3 . This suggests that local structural disorder does not significantly affect the energy landscape and diffusion behavior of H i +1 in Al 2 O 3 . Overall, these results show promise for the application of alumina polymorphs as hydrogen permeation barriers.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Machine learning-based inversion for acoustic impedance with large synthetic training data: Workflow and data characterization

Where wells are sparse or training data are difficult to label with high-quality wireline-derived impedance logs, machine learning (ML)-based inversion of acoustic impedance typically depends on small training data sets, leading to biased prediction. We have advanced a novel workflow that applies large synthetic seismic training data to reduce facies-related bias. Using a geologically realistic model as the truth model, we randomly select sparse seed wells to perform sequential Gaussian simulation (SGS) for impedance models of the same geometry and simulate facies variability. We implement random forest regression on 30 features extracted from the synthetic volume. We observe that more seed wells tend to reduce facies-induced bias by sampling more types of facies, resulting in a better prediction. We then focus on the responses of SGS models to facies changes, the number of seed wells necessary for a useful synthetic model, and how much a synthetic model can help ML-based inversion. Here, we observe that the SGS synthetic training model outperforms well-direct training in general. For modeled clastic shore-zone systems in Miocene Gulf of Mexico, two or more seed wells are necessary for a significant reduction of root-mean-square error and outliners, and improvement of facies imaging. In a field-data test, we apply a similar workflow to quantitatively predict acoustic impedance, which is then converted to a sand-volume map at a high-frequency sequence (10–100 m), revealing detailed facies and sandstone patterns. Such results are valuable in many geologic and engineering applications, such as hydrocarbon and CO 2 reservoir prospecting, reserve estimation, simulation, etc.

3D seismic↗
DOE OSTI2025

RTN-099: Photometric Transformation Relations for the LSST Data Preview 1

This technical note provides photometric transformation relations between the Vera C. Rubin Observatory's LSSTCam and LSSTComCam systems and other photometric systems. These transformations are derived using both synthetic and empirical data and are intended to support calibration and comparison across survey systems. We present both polynomial equations and lookup-table-based methods, depending on the available data and desired accuracy. The transformations are generally valid for stars with typical spectral energy distributions (SEDs), and caution should be used when applying them to objects with strong emission lines or atypical colors.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

RTN-125: Photometric Transformation Relations for the LSST Data Preview 2

This technical note provides photometric transformation relations between the NSF-DOE Vera C. Rubin Observatory's Data Preview 2 (DP2) and other photometric systems. These transformations are derived using both synthetic and empirical data and are intended to support calibration and comparison across survey systems. We present both polynomial equations and lookup-table-based methods, depending on the available data and desired accuracy. The transformations are generally valid for stars with typical spectral energy distributions (SEDs), and caution should be used when applying them to objects with strong emission lines or atypical colors.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Data-driven prediction of geometry- and toolpath sequence-dependent intra-layer process conditions variations in laser powder bed fusion

Geometrical features and toolpath sequence are two important factors that cause process condition variations, such as variations in the meltpool temperature or meltpool size, that might lead to undesired material properties in the laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) process. Due to the high dynamics and complex physics of the LPBF process, it is difficult to predict variations in process conditions with simulations alone. Advances in measurement technology and computational technologies open up new possibilities for smart manufacturing. In this paper, a data-driven method to predict intra-layer variations in the processing conditions that source from the toolpath sequence and part geometry is presented. The approach is demonstrated using two-color on-axis pyrometer measurements. Three demonstration cases are presented in which it is demonstrated (1) how the trained predictive model can be used as a filter to ease the interpretation of process variations and discover patterns related to toolpath and part geometry, and (2) how to generate predictions that can be used for feedforward control, i.e., for adjusting laser power or scanning speed along the toolpath using a meltpool temperature prediction model generated based on on-axis measurements. Results show that the developed prediction model is able to meaningfully predict process variations resulted from toolpath sequence and geometry. Predictions are aligned with the results from the related work of others and for the case of 180° laser path turnarounds in our high-speed X-ray imaging experiments. In conclusion, the potential issues related to the current maturity status of the process and measuring equipment that could in practice affect the performance of the proposed solutions are also discussed.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

An automated multiplexed turbidometric and data collection system for measuring growth kinetics of anaerobes dependent on gaseous substrates

Standard methods of monitoring the growth kinetics of anaerobic microorganisms are generally impractical when there is a protracted or indeterminate period of active growth, and when high numbers of samples or replications are required. As part of our studies of the adaptive evolution of a simple anaerobic syntrophic mutualism, requiring the characterization of many isolates and alternative syntrophic pairings, here we developed a multiplexed growth monitoring system using a combination of commercially available electronics and custom designed circuitry and materials. This system automatically monitors up to 64 sealed, and as needed pressurized, culture tubes and reports the growth data in real-time through integration with a customized relational database. The utility of this system was demonstrated by resolving minor differences in growth kinetics associated with the adaptive evolution of a simple microbial community comprised of a sulfate reducing bacterium, Desulfovibrio vulgaris, grown in syntrophic association with Methanococcus maripaludis, a hydrogenotrophic methanogen.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Layer and material-type dependent photoresponse in Se 2 /WS 2 vertical heterostructures

Transition metal dichalcogenide (TMD) heterostructures are promising for a variety of applications in photovoltaics and photosensing. Successfully exploiting these heterostructures will require an understanding of their layer-dependent electronic structures. However, there is no experimental data demonstrating the layer-number dependence of photovoltaic effects (PVEs) in vertical TMD heterojunctions. Here, by combining scanning electrochemical cell microscopy (SECCM) with optical probes, we report the first layer-dependence of photocurrents in WSe 2 /WS 2 vertical heterostructures as well as in pristine WS 2 and WSe 2 layers. For WS 2 , we find that photocurrents increase with increasing layer thickness, whereas for WSe 2 the layer dependence is more complex and depends on both the layer number and applied bias (V b ). Further, we find that photocurrents in the WSe 2 /WS 2 heterostructures exhibit anomalous layer and material-type dependent behaviors. Our results advance the understanding of photoresponse in atomically thin WSe 2 /WS 2 heterostructures and pave the way to novel nanoelectronic and optoelectronic devices.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Toward equitable environmental exposure modeling through convergence of data, open, and citizen sciences: an example of air pollution exposure modeling amidst increasing wildfire smoke

Exposure modeling is critical in environmental epidemiology and human health but may face challenges (e.g., skewed data, unequal error, context-insensitive validation, and computational demands). Modeling decisions reflect the intended use of the models and the values that modelers prioritize. We aimed to provide a conceptual framework and machine learning (ML) modeling protocols that address these issues. With 500m-gridded hourly PM 2.5 and O 3 levels in Illinois before, during, and after the 2023 Canadian wildfire season as a motivating example, we conducted modeling experiments to evaluate modeling methods, guided by three domains we propose based on theories of science: 1) Data Diversity, leveraging open and citizen science data to enhance inclusivity, parsimony, and representativeness; 2) Equitable Accuracy, ensuring fairly distributed uncertainties across subpopulations; and 3) Sustainable Modeling, balancing accuracy with reducing computational demands to promote accessibility for under-resourced researchers. Here, we found that ML with publicly available data can achieve high accuracy. Depending on methods, performance may vary substantially, even with identical input data. Large but skewed data may reduce performance. Misuse of cross-validation protocols can underestimate prediction error; although we observed R 2 s of ∼98 %, the modeled estimates varied significantly, indicating the need for careful model validation. By using new modeling protocols including representativeness-considered training and validation data and a new loss function, we achieved high agreement between estimates and ground-based measurements (e.g., R 2 = ∼90 % for PM 2.5 ; ∼80 % for O 3 ), equally distributed errors across sociodemographic strata and urban–rural divides, and reduction in computation time—from several weeks or months to a few days.

Exposure assessment↗
DOE OSTI2025

From disorganized data to emergent dynamic models: Questionnaires to partial differential equations

Starting with sets of disorganized observations of spatially varying and temporally evolving systems, obtained at different (also disorganized) sets of parameters, we demonstrate the data-driven derivation of parameter dependent, evolutionary partial differential equation (PDE) models capable of generating the data. This tensor type of data is reminiscent of shuffled (multidimensional) puzzle tiles. The independent variables for the evolution equations (their “space” and “time”) as well as their effective parameters are all emergent , i.e. determined in a data-driven way from our disorganized observations of behavior in them. We use a diffusion map based questionnaire approach to build a smooth parametrization of our emergent space/time/parameter space for the data. This approach iteratively processes the data by successively observing them on the “space,” the “time” and the “parameter” axes of a tensor. Once the data become organized, we use machine learning (here, neural networks) to approximate the operators governing the evolution equations in this emergent space. Our illustrative examples are based (i) on a simple advection–diffusion model; (ii) on a previously developed vertex-plus-signaling model of Drosophila embryonic development; and (iii) on two complex dynamic network models (one neuronal and one coupled oscillator model) for which no obvious smooth embedding geometry is known a priori. This allows us to discuss features of the process like symmetry breaking, translational invariance, and autonomousness of the emergent PDE model, as well as its interpretability.

generative models↗
DOE OSTI2022

Temperature-dependent diffuse reflectance measurements of ceramic powders in the near- and mid-infrared spectra

Radiative properties are critical to quantify radiative energy fluxes between surfaces and in participating media. However, there is limited experimental data on temperature-dependent radiative properties of materials. Herein, this work focuses on experimentally measuring temperature-dependent diffuse reflectance in the near- and mid-infrared spectra (1–20 μm) for ceramic particles with applications as heat-transfer and thermal-storage media in concentrated solar power (CSP) plants. Specifically, a commercially available sintered bauxite proppant, ACCUCAST ID80, and its primary chemical constituents—alumina (Al 2 O 3 ) and silica (SiO 2 )—are measured in powder form using a Fourier transform infrared spectrometer (FTIR) coupled with a specialized diffuse reflectance accessory and a heated stage. Room-temperature diffuse reflectance measurements show increased absorption in tests with greater mass fractions of the ceramic samples. There is a strong correlation in the measured reflectance spectra of ACCUCAST with alumina and silica in the spectral range 2000–500 cm –1 (5–20 μm). Whereas, for shorter wavelengths (< 5 μm), the absorptance for ACCUCAST is greater than the absorptance for alumina and silica, indicating contributions from other chemical species present in the composite material. For the first time, temperature-dependent diffuse reflectance measurements are reported for ACCUCAST up to 1000 °C. These results are compared against those of alumina and silica through the calculation of a thermal emittance. All three materials exhibit a calculated emittance of ~0.9 at room temperature. However, this value decreases to ~0.6 for ACCUCAST and drops to less than 0.4 for alumina and silica at 1000 °C. Thermal cycling in air at 1000 °C resulted in a visible color change from dark grey to light orange for ACCUCAST and a subsequent larger increase in reflectance for wavelengths less than 5 μm as compared to ACCUCAST thermally cycled at 1000 °C in vacuum. Alumina and silica spectra proved to be largely unaffected by thermal cycling under atmospheric conditions. Overall, this study establishes a powerful technique for the characterization of radiative properties of particulate materials as a function of temperature and presents a detailed case study of ACCUCAST, a candidate for next-generation particle-based CSP.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

a priori uncertainty quantification of reacting turbulence closure models using Bayesian neural networks

While many physics-based closure model forms have been posited for the sub-filter scale (SFS) in large eddy simulation (LES), vast amounts of data available from direct numerical simulations (DNS) create opportunities to leverage data-driven modeling techniques. Albeit flexible, data-driven models still depend on the dataset and the functional form of the model chosen. Increased adoption of such models requires reliable uncertainty estimates both in the data-informed and out-of-distribution regimes. Here, in this work, we employ Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) to capture both epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties in a reacting flow model. In particular, we model the filtered progress variable scalar dissipation rate which plays a key role in the dynamics of turbulent premixed flames. We demonstrate that BNN models can provide unique insights about the structure of uncertainty of the data-driven closure models. We also propose a method for the incorporation of out-of-distribution information in a BNN, which can be used for out-of-distribution query detection. The efficacy of the model is demonstrated by a priori evaluation on a dataset consisting of a variety of flame conditions and fuels.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Nuclear data covariances are critical input to determine upper sub-critical limits and to design experiments to increase it [Slides]

This presentation discusses how Upper Subcritical Limits (USL) are key parameters to determine operational limits in nuclear criticality safety evaluations. It also discusses an example of plutonium casting operation using tantalum at LANL PF-4. The Whisper tool at Los Alamos relies on many inputs, including covariance data, leading the presentation to ask if an existing benchmark data be used in Whisper to adjust nuclear data and covariances to justify a higher USL. If not, Whisper can be used to help design an optimal new benchmark experiment. The presentation also seeks to determine what the possible impacts are on USL and operational limits for plutonium casting. In conclusion, nuclear data covariances are used for by Whisper for: GSSL adjustment of nuclear data and covariances, identification of most similar existing benchmark experiments to application, simulation of Upper Subcritical Limit of application, and input to optimization techniques for designing most appropriate new benchmark experiment(s) to meet requirements. This requires a complete set of nuclear data covariances, benchmarks and k-effective sensitivity profiles (for both benchmarks and applications). The presentation concludes by asking if end users should trust results that depend on current covariance data.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Macro-physical Properties of Shallow Cumulus from Integrated ARM Observations (Final Report)

Fair-weather shallow cumuli (ShCu) play an important role in many climate-related processes. Irregular geometry of ShCu and their strong temporal and spatial variability make it challenging to observe ShCu holistically and to represent them correctly in climate models. To improve ShCu parameterizations, information on both vertically and horizontally resolved cloud properties is required. Commonly, the vertically resolved cloud properties are provided by zenith pointing lidar-radar observations with a very narrow field of view (FOV). Thus, these “pencil-beam” properties may not be representative of a larger surrounding area. Limited number of areal-averaged cloud properties, such as fractional sky cover (FSC), are offered typically by wide-FOV observations. The main goal of our project was to integrate advantages of the narrow-FOV (vertical structure of clouds) and wide-FOV (spatial arrangement of clouds) observations for an improved characterization of single-layer ShCu observed at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) site for an 18-yr period (2000-2017). There are four major accomplishments of our project, First, an updated operational cloud classification for days with ShCu has been suggested and evaluated through a detailed comparison with the manually curated records. Our classification extends successfully the latest ARM cloud type Value Added Product (VAP) based on the Active Remote Sensing of Clouds (ARSCL) cloud product by incorporating both cloud fraction (CF) provided by narrow-FOV ceilometer data and FSC from wide-FOV images offered by a Total Sky Imager (TSI). Moreover, our classification allows one to identify impact of instrumentation changes at the SGP site, namely the transition to KAZRARSCL with the updated cloud radar, on the identification of periods with single-layer ShCu. Second, a new approach that resolves cloud area distributions for a given region (up to 4x4 km 2 ) has been suggested and cloud equivalent diameters (CEDs) have been estimated for the first time. These estimations have been performed over a wide range of cloud sizes (about 0.01–3.5 km) with high temporal resolution (30s) using wide-FOV TSI images and cloud base height (CBH) provided by complementary narrow-FOV lidar measurements. Our simple and computationally inexpensive approach offers a previously unavailable dataset for process studies in the convective boundary layer and evaluation of ShCu parameterizations in cloud-resolving models. Third, a long-term integrated record of ShCu macrophysical properties has been developed. The developed record represents the longest available compilation of events with ShCu and includes (i) a novel visualization of the spatial variability in cloud cover both along- and across-wind directions, (ii) updated estimates of narrow-FOV CF and wide-FOV FSC, (iii) updated narrow-FOV CBH, and (iv) complementary data, such as wind speed and direction from the 915-MHz Radar Wind Profiler (RWP) data. The developed record has been used successfully to assess conventional observational estimates of cloud cover and their sensitivity to the following two factors: (i) instrument-dependent cloud detection and data merging criteria and (ii) FOV configuration. Fourth, co-variability of the ShCu macrophysical properties and environmental parameters has been analyzed for a 3-yr period (2016-2018). Our initial analysis includes diurnal changes of FSCs obtained for clouds with small, moderate and large CEDs and several environmental parameters, such as lifted condensation level (LCL) and mixed layer height (zi). Preliminary results of our analysis suggest that the horizontal extent of ShCu is controlled substantially by the sign and magnitude of difference between these two parameters (zi-LCL): the CED tends to grow with increase of this difference (zi exceeds LCL). We have initiated relationships between the ShCu and key atmospheric parameters that control both the development and evolution of ShCu using our new data product, which combines effectively the advantages of narrow-FOV data offered by zenith pointing cloud radars and lidars and wide-FOV TSI images. While the latest instrumentation at the ARM sites may address these challenging relationships in the future, we believe that the historical ARM data at the SGP site has not yet been fully utilized. Overall, our data product can be used by researchers working on a wide range of climate-related projects. These projects may include (i) a comprehensive evaluation of outputs from the Large-Eddy Simulation (LES) and single-column models for their future improvement, (ii) the representativeness of “short-period” results obtained from the previous model and observational studies and (iii) the planning of future field campaigns with focus on improved understanding of the diurnal cycle of cumulus convection.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Survival analysis of localized prostate cancer with deep learning

In recent years, data-driven, deep-learning-based models have shown great promise in medical risk prediction. By utilizing the large-scale Electronic Health Record data found in the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs, the largest integrated healthcare system in the United States, we have developed an automated, personalized risk prediction model to support the clinical decision-making process for localized prostate cancer patients. This method combines the representative power of deep learning and the analytical interpretability of parametric regression models and can implement both time-dependent and static input data. To collect a comprehensive evaluation of model performances, we calculate time-dependent C-statistics C td over 2-, 5-, and 10-year time horizons using either a composite outcome or prostate cancer mortality as the target event. The composite outcome combines the Prostate-Specific Antigen (PSA) test, metastasis, and prostate cancer mortality. Our longitudinal model Recurrent Deep Survival Machine (RDSM) achieved C td 0.85 (0.83), 0.80 (0.83), and 0.76 (0.81), while the cross-sectional model Deep Survival Machine (DSM) attained C td 0.85 (0.82), 0.80 (0.82), and 0.76 (0.79) for the 2-, 5-, and 10-year composite (mortality) outcomes, respectively. In addition to estimating the survival probability, our method can quantify the uncertainty associated with the prediction. The uncertainty scores show a consistent correlation with the prediction accuracy. We find PSA and prostate cancer stage information are the most important indicators in risk prediction. Our work demonstrates the utility of the data-driven machine learning model in prostate cancer risk prediction, which can play a critical role in the clinical decision system.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗