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303 records · Page 17

Comparison Between GOES-12 Overshooting-Top Detections, WSR-88D Radar Reflectivity, and Severe Storm Reports

Studies have found that convective storms with overshooting-top (OT) signatures in weather satellite imagery are often associated with hazardous weather, such as heavy rainfall, tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail. An objective satellite-based OT detection product has been developed using 11-micrometer infrared window (IRW) channel brightness temperatures (BTs) for the upcoming R series of the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES-R) Advanced Baseline Imager. In this study, this method is applied to GOES-12 IRW data and the OT detections are compared with radar data, severe storm reports, and severe weather warnings over the eastern United States. The goals of this study are to 1) improve forecaster understanding of satellite OT signatures relative to commonly available radar products, 2) assess OT detection product accuracy, and 3) evaluate the utility of an OT detection product for diagnosing hazardous convective storms. The coevolution of radar-derived products and satellite OT signatures indicates that an OT often corresponds with the highest radar echo top and reflectivity maximum aloft. Validation of OT detections relative to composite reflectivity indicates an algorithm false-alarm ratio of 16%, with OTs within the coldest IRW BT range (less than 200 K) being the most accurate. A significant IRW BT minimum typically present with an OT is more often associated with heavy precipitation than a region with a spatially uniform BT. Severe weather was often associated with OT detections during the warm season (April September) and over the southern United States. The severe weather to OT relationship increased by 15% when GOES operated in rapid-scan mode, showing the importance of high temporal resolution for observing and detecting rapidly evolving cloud-top features. Comparison of the earliest OT detection associated with a severe weather report showed that 75% of the cases occur before severe weather and that 42% of collocated severe weather reports had either an OT detected before a severe weather warning or no warning issued at all. The relationships between satellite OT signatures, severe weather, and heavy rainfall shown in this paper suggest that 1) when an OT is detected, the particular storm is likely producing heavy rainfall and/or possibly severe weather; 2) an objective OT detection product can be used to increase situational awareness and forecaster confidence that a given storm is severe; and 3) this product may be particularly useful in regions with insufficient radar coverage.

Dworak, Richard↗

NASA Tech Briefs, September 2013

Topics include: ISS Ammonia Leak Detection Through X-Ray Fluorescence; A System for Measuring the Sway of the Vehicle Assembly Building; Fast, High-Precision Readout Circuit for Detector Arrays; Victim Simulator for Victim Detection Radar; Hydrometeor Size Distribution Measurements by Imaging the Attenuation of a Laser Spot; Quasi-Linear Circuit; High-Speed, High-Resolution Time-to-Digital Conversion; Li-Ion Battery and Supercapacitor Hybrid Design for Long Extravehicular Activities; Ultrasonic Low-Friction Containment Plate for Thermal and Ultrasonic Stir Weld Processes; High-Powered, Ultrasonically Assisted Thermal Stir Welding; Next-Generation MKIII Lightweight HUT/Hatch Assembly; Centrifugal Sieve for Gravity-Level-Independent Size; Segregation of Granular Materials; Ion Exchange Technology Development in Support of the Urine Processor Assembly; Nickel-Graphite Composite Compliant Interface and/or Hot Shoe Material; UltraSail CubeSat Solar Sail Flight Experiment; Mechanism for Deploying a Long, Thin-Film Antenna From a Rover; Counterflow Regolith Heat Exchanger; Acquisition and Retaining Granular Samples via a Rotating Coring Bit; Very-Low-Cost, Rugged Vacuum System; Medicine Delivery Device With Integrated Sterilization and Detection; FRET-Aptamer Assays for Bone Marker Assessment, C-Telopeptide, Creatinine, and Vitamin D; Multimode Directional Coupler for Utilization of Harmonic Frequencies from TWTAs; Dual-Polarization, Multi-Frequency Antenna Array for use with Hurricane Imaging Radiometer; Complementary Barrier Infrared Detector (CBIRD) Contact Methods; Autonomous Control of Space Nuclear Reactors; High-Power, High-Speed Electro-Optic Pockels Cell Modulator; Covariance Analysis Tool (G-CAT) for Computing Ascent, Descent, and Landing Errors; Enigma Version 12; Micrometeoroid and Orbital Debris (MMOD) Shield Ballistic Limit Analysis Program; Spitzer Telemetry Processing System; Planetary Protection Bioburden Analysis Program; Wing Leading Edge RCC Rapid Response Damage Prediction Tool (IMPACT2); ISSM: Ice Sheet System Model; Automated Loads Analysis System (ATLAS); Integrated Main Propulsion System Performance Reconstruction Process/Models. Phoenix Telemetry Processor; Contact Graph Routing Enhancements Developed in ION for DTN; GFEChutes Lo-Fi; Advanced Strategic and Tactical Relay Request Management for the Mars Relay Operations Service; Software for Generating Troposphere Corrections for InSAR Using GPS and Weather Model Data; Ionospheric Specifications for SAR Interferometry (ISSI); Implementation of a Wavefront-Sensing Algorithm; Sally Ride EarthKAM - Automated Image Geo-Referencing Using Google Earth Web Plug-In; Trade Space Specification Tool (TSST) for Rapid Mission Architecture (Version 1.2); Acoustic Emission Analysis Applet (AEAA) Software; Memory-Efficient Onboard Rock Segmentation; Advanced Multimission Operations System (ATMO); Robot Sequencing and Visualization Program (RSVP); Automating Hyperspectral Data for Rapid Response in Volcanic Emergencies; Raster-Based Approach to Solar Pressure Modeling; Space Images for NASA JPL Android Version; Kinect Engineering with Learning (KEWL); Spacecraft 3D Augmented Reality Mobile App; MPST Software: grl_pef_check; Real-Time Multimission Event Notification System for Mars Relay; SIM_EXPLORE: Software for Directed Exploration of Complex Systems; Mobile Timekeeping Application Built on Reverse-Engineered JPL Infrastructure; Advanced Query and Data Mining Capabilities for MaROS; Jettison Engineering Trajectory Tool; MPST Software: grl_suppdoc; PredGuid+A: Orion Entry Guidance Modified for Aerocapture; Planning Coverage Campaigns for Mission Design and Analysis: CLASP for DESDynl; and Space Place Prime.

Source record↗

Towards a Marine Stratus Climatology on Drizzle Occurrence from CALIPSO

Marine stratus are a predominant feature of our planet with the annual mean coverage exceeding 20%. They strongly reflect sunlight, yet exert only a modest effect on outgoing infrared radiation, providing a significant net cooling to the Earth’s radiative balance. Their formation is coupled to boundary layer circulations that are driven, in part, by cloud top radiative cooling and evaporative cooling from precipitation in downdrafts. Understanding how these cloud systems evolve as the climate changes is a key question that requires additional information on their lifecycle and microphysical properties to accurately represent their behavior in global circulation models. From a large-scale perspective, insight into the microphysical properties of marine stratus at cloud top can be realized through estimates of the effective radius (Re) of the droplet size distributions derived from MODIS observations. Estimates on the occurrence of rain/drizzle are available from CloudSat. Together these observations indicate that precipitation frequently occurs in clouds with higher cloud top Re. This relationship is consistent with the well documented shift in cloud top droplet size distributions towards fewer, yet larger droplets prior the onset of precipitation. Here we report on a new and complementary set observations from the CALIPSO mission. The approach derives an extinction-to-backscatter ratio (Sc, also known as the cloud lidar ratio) using an established relationship that depends on observations of the lidar attenuated backscatter and volume depolarization ratio within the cloud. Because Sc is strongly and inversely related to Re, a change in the derived Sc from higher to lower values corresponds to a change in the droplet size distribution as seen by MODIS. This change in the lidar signals at cloud top clearly identifies clouds that are capable of precipitation. The presentation provides a brief overview of the approach for deriving Sc and compares CALIOP-derived Sc with observations from other techniques. CALIOP classifications of drizzling clouds, based on the retrieved values Sc, are compared to independent, collocated assessments of drizzle occurrence reported in the standard CloudSat data products. Regional and seasonal comparisons highlight the strengths and weaknesses of the two sensors. A machine learning approach that combines information from both CALIOP and CloudSat showcases possible improvements in the global identification of scenes likely to contain rain-bearing clouds.

CALIPSO↗

The Ice, Cloud, and Land Elevation Satellite-2 (ICESat-2): Science Requirements, Concept, and Implementation

The Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) mission used laser altimetry measurements to determine changes in elevations of glaciers and ice sheets, as well as sea ice thickness distribution. These measurements have provided important information on the response of the cryosphere (Earths frozen surfaces) to changes in atmosphere and ocean condition. ICESat operated from 2003-2009 and provided repeat altimetry measurements not only to the cryosphere scientific community but also to the ocean, terrestrial and atmospheric scientific communities. The conclusive assessment of significant ongoing rapid changes in the Earths ice cover, in part supported by ICESat observations, has strengthened the need for sustained, high accuracy, repeat observations similar to what was provided by the ICESat mission. Following recommendations from the National Research Council for an ICESat follow-on mission, the ICESat-2 mission is now under development for planned launch in 2018. The primary scientific aims of the ICESat-2 mission are to continue measurements of sea ice freeboard and ice sheet elevation to determine their changes at scales from outlet glaciers to the entire ice sheet, and from 10s of meters to the entire polar oceans for sea ice freeboard. ICESat carried a single beam profiling laser altimeter that produced approximately 70 m diameter footprints on the surface of the Earth at approximately 150 m along-track intervals. In contrast, ICESat-2 will operate with three pairs of beams, each pair separated by about 3 km across-track with a pair spacing of 90 m. Each of the beams will have a nominal 17 m diameter footprint with an along-track sampling interval of 0.7 m. The differences in the ICESat-2 measurement concept are a result of overcoming some limitations associated with the approach used in the ICESat mission. The beam pair configuration of ICESat-2 allows for the determination of local cross-track slope, a significant factor in measuring elevation change for the outlet glaciers surrounding the Greenland and Antarctica coasts. The multiple beam pairs also provide improved spatial coverage. The dense spatial sampling eliminates along-track measurement gaps, and the small footprint diameter is especially useful for sea surface height measurements in the often narrow leads needed for sea ice freeboard and ice thickness retrievals. The ICESat-2 instrumentation concept uses a low energy 532 nm (green) laser in conjunction with single-photon sensitive detectors to measure range. Combining ICESat-2 data with altimetry data collected since the start of the ICESat mission in 2003, such as Operation IceBridge and ESAs CryoSat-2, will yield a 15+ year record of changes in ice sheet elevation and sea ice thickness. ICESat-2 will also provide information of mountain glacier and ice cap elevations changes, land and vegetation heights, inland water elevations, sea surface heights, and cloud layering and optical thickness.

ICESat-2↗

Determining stress states using dike swarms: The Lauma Dorsa example

Initial examination of the Magellan coverage of Venus has revealed between 150 and 300 large, radially lineated landforms distributed across the planet's surface. Where the lineaments have been examined in detail, the majority fail to exhibit signatures indicative of relief at or above the resolution of the radar; however, when the sense of topographic relief may be ascertained, the lineaments commonly appear as fissures or flat-floored trenches interpreted as graben. Individual lineaments can display graben, fissure, and zero relief behavior along their length, suggesting either that these differences are a function of the resolution of the radar, or that the morphological distinctions are real but somehow genetically linked. In many instances, radial lineaments exhibiting these characteristics are directly associated with surface volcanism, including flanking and terminal flows, superimposed shield domes and pit chains, and central, calderalike topographic lows. These observable characteristics, as well as theoretical studies and comparison with similar terrestrial features, have led to the working hypothesis that many of the radial fracture systems on Venus are the surface manifestation of subsurface dikes propagating laterally from a central magma source. If this interpretation is correct, studies of terrestrial dikes suggest that the lineament directions, with localized exceptions and barring subsequent deformation, should be perpendicular to the orientation of the least compressive stress at the time of their formation. To test this hypothesis, we briefly examine a radial fracture system (63.7 degrees N, 195 degrees E) located between two deformation belts in Vinmara Planitia, and verify that the lineaments to the east behave in the expected manner. We have also chosen this feature, however, because of its proximity to Lauma Dorsa to the west. On the basis of Venera 15/16 data, both compressional and extensional origins for this deformation belt have been proposed. By examining the stratigraphy and applying our interpretation that the fracture system is linked to the presence of subsurface dikes, we present an independent evaluation of the stress state associated with Lauma Dorsa, and thus contribute to the assessment of its origin.

Grosfils, Eric B.↗

Mapping Impervious Surfaces Globally at 30m Resolution Using Global Land Survey Data

Impervious surfaces, mainly artificial structures and roads, cover less than 1% of the world's land surface (1.3% over USA). Regardless of the relatively small coverage, impervious surfaces have a significant impact on the environment. They are the main source of the urban heat island effect, and affect not only the energy balance, but also hydrology and carbon cycling, and both land and aquatic ecosystem services. In the last several decades, the pace of converting natural land surface to impervious surfaces has increased. Quantitatively monitoring the growth of impervious surface expansion and associated urbanization has become a priority topic across both the physical and social sciences. The recent availability of consistent, global scale data sets at 30m resolution such as the Global Land Survey from the Landsat satellites provides an unprecedented opportunity to map global impervious cover and urbanization at this resolution for the first time, with unprecedented detail and accuracy. Moreover, the spatial resolution of Landsat is absolutely essential to accurately resolve urban targets such a buildings, roads and parking lots. With long term GLS data now available for the 1975, 1990, 2000, 2005 and 2010 time periods, the land cover/use changes due to urbanization can now be quantified at this spatial scale as well. In the Global Land Survey - Imperviousness Mapping Project (GLS-IMP), we are producing the first global 30 m spatial resolution impervious cover data set. We have processed the GLS 2010 data set to surface reflectance (8500+ TM and ETM+ scenes) and are using a supervised classification method using a regression tree to produce continental scale impervious cover data sets. A very large set of accurate training samples is the key to the supervised classifications and is being derived through the interpretation of high spatial resolution (approx. 2 m or less) commercial satellite data (Quickbird and Worldview2) available to us through the unclassified archive of the National Geospatial Intelligence Agency (NGA). For each continental area several million training pixels are derived by analysts using image segmentation algorithms and tools and then aggregated to the 30m resolution of Landsat. Here we will discuss the production/testing of this massive data set for Europe, North and South America and Africa, including assessments of the 2010 surface reflectance data. This type of analysis is only possible because of the availability of long term 30m data sets from GLS and shows much promise for integration of Landsat 8 data in the future.

global land survey↗

What we Hope to Learn about Global Mineral Dust Aerosols from EOS Multi-Angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR)

On global scales, just a few broad atmospheric aerosol compositional groups are commonly observed. Of these, "mineral dust" is the only group which both contains non-spherical particles, and typically has size distributions with enough large particles for particle shape to affect its visible-light-scattering properties. The MISR instrument is scheduled for launch into a 10:30 AM sun-synchronous, polar orbit aboard the EOS Terra satellite in 1999. MISR will measure the upwelling visible radiance from Earth in 4 spectral bands centered at 446, 558, 672, and 866 nm, at each of 9 emission angles spread out in the forward and aft directions along the flight path at +/-70.5 deg, +/-60.0 deg, +/-45.6 deg, +/-26.1deg, and nadir. Over a period of 7 minutes, as the spacecraft flies along, a 360 km wide swath of Earth will successively be viewed by each of the cameras, allowing MISR to sample a very large range of scattering angles; in mid latitudes, the instrument will observe scattering angles between about 60 deg and 160 deg. Global coverage will be acquired about once in 9 days at the equator; the nominal mission lifetime is 6 years. The distinction in single scattering phase function between natural distributions of spherical and randomly oriented, non-spherical particles, with a broad range of aspect ratios, shows up strongly for scattering angles ranging from about 90 deg to near 180 deg. For non-spherical particle distributions, single scattering phase functions tend to be much flatter in this region than for spherical particles. Since MISR samples the relevant range of scattering angles very well, we expect to be able to make critical distinctions between natural distributions of spherical and randomly oriented, non-spherical particles with MISR data. We anticipate that the new multiangle, multispectral data from MISR will also contain other information about particle properties, a major step beyond current spacecraft remote sensing retrievals, which obtain aerosol optical depth based on entirely assumed particle microphysical properties. According to simulations over cloud-free, calm ocean, for pure particles with natural ranges of optical depth, particle size, and indices of refraction, MISR should retrieve column optical depth for all but the darkest particles, to an uncertainty of at most 0.05 or 20%, whichever is larger, even if the particle properties are poorly known. For one common particle type, soot, constraints on the optical depth over dark ocean are very poor. The simulated measurements also should allow us to separate two to four compositional groups based on indices of refraction, and to identify three to four distinct size groups between 0.1 and 2.0 microns characteristic radius at most latitudes. The technique is most sensitive to particle microphysical properties in the "accumulation mode" sizes. where particle scattering undergoes the transition from Rayleigh to large-particle regimes for the MISR wavelengths. Based on these results, we expect to distinguish air masses containing different aerosol types, routinely and globally, with multiangle remote sensing data. Such data complements in situ and field data, which can provide details about aerosol size and composition locally that are needed to assess the radiative effects of aerosols quantitatively. Both field data and correlations in space and time with likely source and sink regions will also be helpful in developing a global picture of mineral dust aerosol budgets. Further work on the expected sensitivity of MISR to natural mixtures of pure particles, including climatologically likely mineral dust components, is currently underway.

Kahn, Ralph↗

Evaluating Diurnal Ozone Emissions: A Comparative Analysis of DSCOVR EPIC, PANDORA, and TOLNet Data for Space-Based Monitoring Assessment: A Case Study by ASDC

Stratospheric ozone occurs naturally in the upper atmosphere, forming a protective layer that shields us from the sun's harmful ultraviolet rays. Tropospheric ozone is not emitted directly into the air but is created by chemical reactions between nitrogen oxides (NOx) and volatile organic compounds (VOC). This reaction happens when pollutants emitted by cars, power plants, industrial boilers, refineries, chemical plants, and other sources chemically react in sunlight [1]. Therefore, increased levels of tropospheric ozone indicate the presence of pollutants in the air. While daily anthropogenic activity causes an increase of ground-level ozone, variation of stratospheric ozone changes happens much slower, so that variation of the total ozone column reflects the variation of the tropospheric column due to natural, e.g., wildfires and anthropogenic air pollution. Both total and tropospheric ozone column products are used in this study. The reflectance spectra measured by the Earth Polychromatic Imaging Camera (EPIC) instrument aboard the Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR) spacecraft are compared with a set of radiative transfer-derived lookup tables for the EPIC filter transmission functions and a wide range of ozone values to retrieve ozone with a maximum resolution of 18 km at the sub-satellite point [2]. EPIC provides total column ozone in level 2 and level 4 products and tropospheric column ozone in level 4 products. Both EPIC Ozone products [2] are available at the Atmospheric Science Data Center (ASDC) at NASA Langley Research Center [3, 4]. Pandora spectrometer instrument measures columnar amounts of trace gases in the atmosphere. These gases (O3, NO2, CH2O) absorb light from the sun at specific wavelengths in the ultraviolet-visible spectrum [5]. Using the theoretical solar spectrum as a reference, Pandora determines trace gas amounts using differential optical absorption spectroscopy (DOAS). Pandora ozone retrievals are available from the Pandonia Global Network [6]. Pandora data from North American major metropolitan areas, New York, NY, Washington DC, Los Angeles, CA, and Mexico City. Tropospheric Ozone Lidar Network (TOLNet) was established in 2012 to provide high spatiotemporal observations of tropospheric ozone to (1) better understand physical processes driving the ozone budget in various meteorological and environmental conditions and (2) validate the tropospheric ozone measurements of space-borne missions [7]. TOLNet data are available at ASDC [8]. While EPIC provides global coverage of ozone retrievals several times daily, temporal resolution may miss some features in daily ozone variations. Ground-based sensors such as Pandora spectrometers and TOLNet lidars provide better temporal resolution while missing continuous spatial coverage. The forthcoming ozone retrieval from the TEMPO mission [9] will provide better spatial and temporal coverage of air quality (including ozone) over North America. This study investigates whether EPIC ozone products can detect diurnal air quality variations and compare ozone temporal development with retrieval by ground-based instruments.

diurnal ozone emissions, DSCOVR EPIC, PANDORA, spa↗

Prior biosphere model impact on global terrestrial CO2 fluxes estimated from OCO-2 retrievals

This study assesses the impact of different state of the art global biospheric CO2 flux models, when applied as prior information, on inverse model “top-down” estimates of terrestrial CO2 fluxes obtained when assimilating Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 (OCO-2) observations. This is done with a series of observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) using synthetic CO2 column-average dry air mole fraction (XCO2) retrievals sampled at the OCO-2 satellite spatiotemporal frequency. The OSSEs utilized a 4-D variational (4D-Var) assimilation system with the GEOS-Chem global chemical transport model (CTM) to estimate CO2 net ecosystem exchange (NEE) fluxes using synthetic OCO-2 observations. The impact of biosphere models in inverse model estimates of NEE is quantified by conducting OSSEs using the NASA-CASA, CASA-GFED, SiB-4, and LPJ models as prior estimates and using NEE from the multi-model ensemble mean of the Multiscale Synthesis and Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project as the “truth”. Results show that the assimilation of simulated XCO2 retrievals at OCO-2 observing modes over land results in posterior NEE estimates which generally reproduce “true” NEE globally and over terrestrial TransCom-3 regions that are well-sampled. However, we find larger spread among posterior NEE estimates, when using different prior NEE fluxes, in regions and seasons that have limited OCO-2 observational coverage and a large range in “bottom-up” NEE fluxes. Seasonally averaged posterior NEE estimates had standard deviations (SD) of ∼10 % to ∼50 % of the multi-model-mean NEE for different TransCom-3 land regions with significant NEE fluxes (regions/seasons with a NEE flux ≥0.5 PgC/yr). On a global average, the seasonally averaged residual impact of the prior model NEE assumption on the posterior NEE spread is ∼10 %–20 % of the posterior NEE mean. Additional OCO-2 OSSE simulations demonstrate that posterior NEE estimates are also sensitive to the assumed prior NEE flux uncertainty statistics, with spread in posterior NEE estimates similar to those when using variable prior model NEE fluxes. In fact, the sensitivity of posterior NEE estimates to prior error statistics was larger than prior flux values in some regions/times in the tropics and Southern Hemisphere where sufficient OCO-2 data were available and large differences between the prior and truth were evident. Overall, even with the availability of spatiotemporally dense OCO-2 data, noticeable residual differences (up to ∼20 %–30 % globally and 50 % regionally) in posterior NEE flux estimates remain that were caused by the choice of prior model flux values and the specification of prior flux uncertainties.

Sajeev Philip↗

Deriving Severe Hail Likelihood from Satellite Observations and Model Reanalysis Parameters using a Deep Neural Network

Geostationary satellite imagers, such as those of the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) series, have been observing severe convection at 15–60-minute intervals for over 40 years. When properly assessed, such a data record can be valuable in efforts of estimating severe storm risk throughout the diurnal cycle based on automated detection of patterns consistently found atop severe storms. Furthermore, environmental conditions favorable for severe weather are well-known and are thought to be represented well by modern reanalysis products. Promoting resilience against such hazards on local and global scales is a chief goal the NASA Disasters program, which seeks to encourage use of satellite observations to mitigate risk. For instance, hail is the costliest severe weather hazard across the globe in terms of insured loss, but reporting inconsistencies for hail events globally make it difficult to develop models that can quantify the risk. Satellite observation and model reanalysis taken together have the potential to, with reasonable skill and specificity, characterize environmental conditions that are favorable for hazardous weather, and thereby enable creation of hazard climatologie. Such climatologies are particularly useful over regions without extensive radar networks or storm reporting. By mapping the multivariate combination of observed cloud features and reanalysis environmental parameters/indices to United States Next Generation Weather Radar (NEXRAD) radar-estimated Maximum Expected Size of Hail (MESH) by way of a deep neural network (DNN), estimates of likelihood for potentially severe hail can be produced. Such estimates are of greater complexity and efficiency than could be performed with previous multivariate or logistic regression analyses for observed points within convective systems. Statistical distributions of convective parameters from satellite and reanalysis are shown to highlight non-severe/severe class separation for well-known hailstorm predictors, e.g., overshooting cloud top characteristics, deep-layer wind shear, mid-level stability, helicity, and convective inhibition. These complex, multivariate predictor relationships are exploited within a DNN, which can efficiently produce a quantitative hail risk metric with better than 70% detection rate and under 30% false alarms. These hail classifications can then be aggregated across the satellite record to yield a hazard climatology for hail frequency and severity – knowledge of which is of particular interest to those who manage risk (e.g., insurers) and are seeking opportunities to identify hail-prone regions, particularly in developing nations. This NASA study uses satellite observations and model parameters in a DNN to perform climatological hailstorm analysis in support of catastrophe model development, with the hope of promoting risk resilience particularly in regions without adequate weather radar coverage.

Passive Remote Sensing↗

Flux Comparison of Master-8 and Ordem 3.1 Modelled Space Debris Population

With ESA’s Meteoroid And Space debris Terrestrial Environment Reference (MASTER-8) model and NASA’s Orbital Debris Engineering Model(ORDEM) 3.1, the two premier orbital debris engineering models have been officially released. The two models come with significant enhancements and now represent state-of-the-art orbital debris modelling for their respective agencies. Both models provide the community with estimates of the space debris environment from low Earth orbit (LEO) up to at least geostationary altitude. The MASTER population is an event-based simulation of all known events that generate debris and objects that are part of the U.S. Space Surveillance Network (SSN) catalog, which provides coverage of objects with diameters down to approximately 10cm in LEO and 1 m in geosynchronous Earth orbit (GEO). Different models are used to simulate the artificial objects and their orbit evolution over time. These models are called “sources” since they assign an origin to each individual object and consist of fragments, solid rocket motor (SRM) remainders, sodium-potassium(NaK) droplets, paintflakes, ejecta, and multi-layer insulation (MLI) fragments. The objects from each source are characterized by having individual release mechanisms, as well as orbital distributions, material composition, size, and mass distributions. Dedicated radar and telescope observation data is used to calibrate the model for objects larger than 1 cm in LEO and larger than 10 cm in GEO. For calibrating the small-sized objects, below 1 cm, impact data from returned surfaces are analyzed. Because the >1cm object population is dominated by fragments, the fragmentation event database was updated to include new events, as well as re-evaluate past events. Special attention was drawn to re-evaluating theFengyun-1C anti-satellite test from 2007 and Cosmos-Iridium collision event from 2009 since these events shape the fragment population because of their severity. After 2009, the two largest fragmentations in terms of number of tracked debris are the Briz-M explosion in 2012 and the NOAA-16explosion in 2015. In total, there are 261 confirmed fragmentations in the database up to November 2016.The baseline population for ORDEM 3.1 is based on the U.S. SSN catalog, and observational datasets from radar, in situ, and optical sources provide a foundation from which the model populations are statistically extrapolated to smaller size regions. These regions are not well-covered by the SSN catalog yet may pose the greatest threat to operational spacecraft. The NASA Standard Satellite Breakup Model is used to generate fragments greater than 1mm from collisions and explosions, and these fragment populations are scaled using ground-based radar data. Specific major debris-producing events, including the Fengyun-1C, Iridium 33, and Cosmos2251 debris clouds, and unique populations, such as NaK droplets, were re-examined, modelled, and added to the ORDEM environment separately. Optical measurement data is used to model the GEO population down to 10 cm. The debris environment is propagated using NASA’s LEO-to-GEO Environment Debris model, and future explosions of intact objects and collisions involving objects greater than 10 cm are assessed statistically. The environment from a few millimetres down to 10 𝜇m is modelled using a special degradation model where small particles are generated from intact spacecraft and rocket bodies, then the populations are scaled to fit in situ cratering data from Space Shuttle returned surfaces. Fragments smaller than 10 cm are differentiated based on material density categories, i.e., high-, medium-, and low-density, to better characterize the potential debris risk posed to upper stages and spacecraft. This paper will discuss the MASTER and ORDEM approaches for modelling populations and compare fluxes for specific orbits, including sun-synchronous, ISS-altitude, geosynchronous transfer, and GEO. In the end, a conclusion is drawn towards the importance of having multiple fundamentally different, yet validated, models to estimate the space debris population.

Andre Horstmann↗

Automated Tracking of Shallow Maritime Clouds on Geostationary Imagery to Extract Lifecycle Characteristics

Shallow moist convection is ubiquitous throughout the tropics and represents a key player in boundary layer processes. Satellites have provided many statistics on shallow clouds, such as size, structure, and geographical coverage, from static views of recurring cloud fields. But determining why certain cloud features appear and persist for different periods requires a time-evolving view of their behaviors. Geostationary satellites provide a unique opportunity to follow the time evolution of individual convective features, given their enhanced spatial and temporal sampling. A cloud-tracking tool was developed to identify properties of cloud lifecycle from the NASA Cloud, Aerosol, and Monsoon Processes Philippines Experiment (CAMP2EX) field campaign of 2019. The mission conducted intensive sampling of shallow cumulus in the West Pacific Ocean, in tandem with Rapid Scan imagery from the Advanced Himawari Imager (AHI) on the Japan Meteorological Agency’s (JMA) Himawari-8 satellite. Shallow cumulus was segmented according to thresholds in 0.5-km visible reflectance and with blurring techniques. Despite being limited to daytime hours, the segmentations yielded the best resolution possible for capturing cloud initiation and decay. The tracking procedure is based on a computer vision package that includes Kalman filters for motion prediction, object overlap search, and the Hungarian (or Kuhn-Munkres) matching algorithm for track designation. AHI radiances available within the tracked cloud boundaries are assembled to form individual spectral histories. The resulting catalog provides thousands of cloud histories for domains measuring only a few degrees in latitude and longitude. We present an overview of the cloud-tracking tool, strategies to identify development stages from cloud tracks, and preliminary results that document cumulus lifecycle properties from satellite. The application of AHI 0.5-km reflectance has both strengths and limitations when attempting to track lifecycles of the smallest resolvable clouds. We show that by aggregating cloud tracks from a few case studies of CAMP2EX, we can discern differences in cloud lifetime and development according to ensembles selected from areas of interest. The results demonstrate an ability to quantify lifetimes and assess rates of change in cloud characteristics that are likely controlled by the surrounding environment and meteorology.

Cloud Tracking↗

Automated Tracking of Shallow Maritime Clouds on Geostationary Imagery to Extract Lifecycle Characteristics

Shallow moist convection is ubiquitous throughout the tropics and represents a key player in boundary layer processes. Satellites have provided valuable insight on shallow clouds, such as size, structure, and geographical coverage, from static views of recurring cloud fields. But determining why certain cloud features appear and persist for different periods requires a time-evolving view of their behaviors. Geostationary satellites provide a unique opportunity to follow the time evolution of individual convective features, given their enhanced spatial and temporal sampling. A cloud-tracking tool was developed to identify properties of cloud lifecycle from the NASA Cloud, Aerosol, and Monsoon Processes Philippines Experiment (CAMP2EX) field campaign of 2019. The mission conducted intensive sampling of shallow cumulus in the West Pacific Ocean, in tandem with Rapid Scan imagery from the Advanced Himawari Imager (AHI) on the Japan Meteorological Agency’s (JMA) Himawari-8 satellite. Shallow cumulus were segmented according to thresholds in 0.5-km visible reflectance and with blurring techniques. Despite being limited to daytime hours, the segmentations yielded the best resolution available for capturing cloud initiation, growth, and decay. The tracking procedure is based on a computer vision package that includes Kalman filters for motion prediction, object overlap search, and the Hungarian (or Kuhn-Munkres) matching algorithm for track designation. AHI radiances available within the tracked cloud boundaries are assembled to form individual spectral histories. The resulting catalog provides thousands of cloud histories for domains measuring only a few degrees in latitude and longitude. We present an overview of the cloud-tracking tool and its results for cloud fields sampled throughout CAMP2EX by the airborne P-3. Cloud tracks were selected from about 10 flights to form ensembles, specific groups of tracks occurring in a region with airborne sampling. Cloud lifecycle properties, including duration and maximum area, are calculated for all ensemble members, and analyzed for cloud behavior and P-3 coincidences. By following this strategy, we quantitatively assess the degree of airborne sampling for specific cloud classes defined by the lifecycle calculations. We can summarize which cloud classes had more sampling, the stage of development during sampling, and general differences in character (e.g., isolated congestus vs. cold-pool producer).

Cloud Tracking↗

Design Concepts for a Small Space-Based GEO Relay Satellite for Missions Between Low Earth and near Earth Orbits

The main purpose of the Small Space-Based Geosynchronous Earth orbiting (GEO) satellite is to provide a space link to the user mission spacecraft for relaying data through ground networks to user Mission Control Centers. The Small Space Based Satellite (SSBS) will provide services comparable to those of a NASA Tracking Data Relay Satellite (TDRS) for the same type of links. The SSBS services will keep the user burden the same or lower than for TDRS and will support the same or higher data rates than those currently supported by TDRS. At present, TDRSS provides links and coverage below GEO; however, SSBS links and coverage capability to above GEO missions are being considered for the future, especially for Human Space Flight Missions (HSF). There is also a rising need for the capability to support high data rate links (exceeding 1 Gbps) for imaging applications. The communication payload on the SSBS will provide S/Ka-band single access links to the mission and a Ku-band link to the ground, with an optical communication payload as an option. To design the communication payload, various link budgets were analyzed and many possible operational scenarios examined. To reduce user burden, using a larger-sized antenna than is currently in use by TDRS was considered. Because of the SSBS design size, it was found that a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket could deliver three SSBSs to GEO. This will greatly reduce the launch costs per satellite. Using electric propulsion was also evaluated versus using chemical propulsion; the power system size and time to orbit for various power systems were also considered. This paper will describe how the SSBS will meet future service requirements, concept of operations, and the design to meet NASA users' needs for below and above GEO missions. These users' needs not only address the observational mission requirements but also possible HSF missions to the year 2030. We will provide the trade-off analysis of the communication payload design in terms of the number of links looking above and below GEO; the detailed design of a GEO SSBS spacecraft bus and its accommodation of the communication payload, and a summary of the trade study that resulted in the selection of the Falcon 9 launch vehicle to deploy the SSBS and its impact on cost reductions per satellite. ======================================================================== Several initiatives have taken place within NASA1 and international space agencies2 to create a human exploration strategy for expanding human presence into the solar system; these initiatives have been driven by multiple factors to benefit Earth. Of the many elements in the strategy one stands out: to send robotic and human missions to destinations beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO), including cis-lunar space, Near-Earth Asteroids (NEAs), the Moon, and Mars and its moons.3, 4 The time frame for human exploration to various destinations, based on the public information available,1,4 is shown in Figure 1. Advance planning is needed to define how future space communications services will be provided in the new budget environment to meet future space communications needs. The spacecraft for these missions can be dispersed anywhere from below LEO to beyond GEO, and to various destinations within the solar system. NASA's Space Communications and Navigation (SCaN) program office provides communication and tracking services to space missions during launch, in-orbit testing, and operation phases. Currently, SCaN's space networking relay satellites mainly provide services to users below GEO, at Near Earth Orbit (NEO), below LEO, and in deep space. The potential exists for using a space-based relay satellite, located in the vicinity of various solar system destinations, to provide communication space links to missions both below and above its orbit. Such relays can meet the needs of human exploration missions for maximum connectivity to Earth locations and for reduced latency. In the past, several studies assessed the ability of satellite-based relays working above GEO in conjunction with Earth ground stations. Many of these focused on the trade between space relay and direct-to-Earth station links5,6,7. Several others focused on top-level architecture based on relays at various destinations8,9,10,11,12. Much has changed in terms of microwave and optical technology since the publication of the referenced papers; Ka-band communication systems are being deployed, optical communication is being demonstrated, and spacecraft buses are becoming increasingly more functional and operational. A design concept study was undertaken to access the potential for deploying a Small Space-Based Satellite (SSBS) relay capable of serving missions between LEO and NEO. The needs of future human exploration missions were analyzed, and a notional relay-based architecture concept was generated as shown in Fig. 1. Relay satellites in Earth through cis-Lunar orbits are normally located in stable orbits requiring low fuel consumption. Relay satellites for Mars orbit are normally selected based on the mission requirement and projected fuel consumption. Relay satellites have extreme commonalities of functions between them, differing only in the redundancy and frequencies used; therefore, the relay satellite in GEO was selected for further analysis since it will be the first step in achieving a relay-based architecture for human exploration missions (see Fig.Figure 2). The mission design methodology developed by the Collaborative Modeling for Parametric Assessment of Space Systems (COMPASS) team13 was used to produce the satellite relay design and to perform various design trades. At the start of the activity, the team was provided with the detailed concept of the notional architecture and the system and communication payload drivers.

Relay Satellites↗

Investigating Low-Altitude Constellations of Ad-Hoc Lunar PNT System for Distributed Spacecraft Autonomy

In this study, we examine a low-altitude Lunar Position, Navigation, and Timing (LPNT) constellations and the localization performance of Centralized Extended Kalman Filter (CEKF) and Decentralized Extended Kalman Filter (DEKF) algorithms. The primary investigation involves a 100-node swarm operating at a 100 km altitude, in contrast to previous studies that examined a 21-node asset in a frozen-orbit at 5,500 km. The autonomous operation of large-scale swarm is based on two-way Inter-Satellite Link (ISL) measurements, which involve pseudoranges and relative velocities among swarm nodes. We perform a numerical assessment of the two filtering approaches, utilizing ‘fully sampled’ measurements from all available assets as well as ‘two ISL’ measurements where each spacecraft is restricted to only two antennas. This research includes an analysis of CEKF under 2-ISL constraints and evaluates the performance of DEKF in a 100-node swarm, which has not been explored in previous studies. In addition, we examine the impact of increasing the sampling frequency for DEKF, showing that the update cycle can be shortened from a 10-minute interval. A novel approach for ‘2-ISL limited’ DEKF will also be introduced, using a matching formulation that exhaustively enumerates all potential matches. This study provides valuable insights into large-scale distributed swarm operations, considering various filter configurations, sampling frequencies, matching strategies, and scalability of CEKF and DEKF for low-altitude LPNT applications. The Lunar PNT technology plays a key role in providing reliable and robust navigation services on the Moon's surface and the South pole, where the primary Lunar missions are planned. To support upcoming Lunar missions, including small satellites from NASA's Commercial Lunar Payload Services program, the Lunar PNT system must be adaptable to smaller platforms like CubeSats. Driven by the growing involvement of public and private exploration partnerships, the traditional low Earth orbit missions are shifting to beyond geosynchronous orbit [1]. These upcoming missions aim to foster a sustainable and innovative exploration program, in collaboration with commercial and international partners, to facilitate human expansion throughout the solar system and return new knowledge and opportunities to Earth [2]. As part of this trend, there are increasing efforts to utilize science missions in Lunar orbit to develop a non-dedicated and ad-hoc PNT network system. Two traditional approaches, the Deep Space Network (DSN) and the weak signal Global Positioning System (GPS), are established deep-space navigation technologies for missions beyond the geosynchronous orbit. Beginning in 1958, the DSN was developed to communicate with the Explorer 1 spacecraft based on the use of radiometric tracking in spacecraft navigation [3]. The DSN is capable of providing nearly unfettered coverage to spacecraft beyond low-Earth orbit (LEO), however, increased space mission volume has created concerns about future expectations of DSN usage for spacecraft navigation [4]. For cislunar mission applications, the position accuracy using DSN achieves 100 m (3σ) with at least three geometrically diverse ground stations when using radiometric tracking alone [5]. The DSN's dependence on Earth-based ground stations restricts its operational capabilities to periods of Earth visibility. This limitation, coupled with its poor localization performance, renders the DSN unsuitable for future lunar missions that demand continuous tracking and precise positioning. To satisfy the increasing requirements of DSN in Lunar applications, spacecrafts are also required to improve their onboard antenna power and efficiency of the transmission. However, there is an important aggregate cost trade between adding capabilities to every spacecraft and adding to a capacity on the ground that serves multiple spacecraft [6]. A weak GPS system can provide PNT service while the user spacecraft is bound to the Moon, leveraging a single, steerable high gain antenna with the relatively narrow beam which includes all the sources in its field of view [7]. However, the higher the altitude the receiver is above the GPS constellations, the poorer and the weaker are the relative geometry and the received signal powers, respectively, leading to a significant navigation accuracy reduction [8]. The transmitted power becomes weaker with increasing distance from the Earth as well as signals tracked from one of the side lobes of the GPS antenna pattern. As a results, the number of visible satellites and relative geometric condition of the GPS satellites at very high altitude drops dramatically and reduces the navigation solution accuracy. Therefore, the weak GPS system is also not an ideal way to provide PNT service to upcoming Lunar missions when considering its limited geometric condition and the recued navigation accuracy. Another navigation approach on the Moon is being developed, similar to the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) on Earth, aiming to offer navigation service with continuous 24/7 coverage across the entire Lunar surface. For example, lunar communications relay and navigation systems (LCRNS) by NASA and Lunar navigation satellite systems (LNSS) by JAXA are designed to serve as dedicated Position, Navigation, and Timing (PNT) systems for the Moon. However, designing a dedicated LNSS and PNT service involves additional challenges, which are unique to the lunar environment, including limited payload capacity for the CubeSat platform, i.e., the size, weight, and power (SWaP) of the onboard clock, limited lunar ground monitoring stations, and limited financial investment as compared to the legacy Earth-GPS [9]. NASA’s focus on utilizing CubeSat platforms on the Moon leads to an alternative Lunar navigation platform that leverages the existing Lunar science and exploration assets. The small satellites used in Lunar missions can be used to create a low-cost, autonomous, ad-hoc, and on-demand mission-centric Lunar PNT swarm capable of providing PNT services to these low-cost lunar missions [10]. As upcoming Lunar missions will often operate at low-altitude about 30 km to 100 km for scientific observations and mapping purposes, the low-altitude orbital constellations could be employed to create an ad-hoc Lunar PNT system. However, several issues must be addressed, such as the instability of these orbits, which often require maintenance or are only suitable for short-duration missions, operating for fewer than 90 days. Additionally, at an altitude of 100 km, the satellites have a limited period during which they are above the horizon and capable of providing PNT service to users. The implementation of a non-dedicated, ad-hoc Lunar navigation constellation facilitates on-demand PNT services. A preliminary study of ad-hoc Lunar PNT system was conducted using 21 spacecraft in 5,5000 km altitude frozen orbits to test its feasibility and a basic performance of orbital asset localization among ad-hoc Lunar constellations in small satellites format [10]. These swarm assets are designed for autonomous localization with minimal Earth interaction, reducing dependency on bandwidth and ground resources. The design in [10] demonstrated the feasibility of a decentralized PNT approach, specifically employing a DEKF approach for state estimation, which helps minimize onboard operating costs. The DEKF method distributes computation across individual satellites, which lightens the computational load while maintaining accuracy in orbit ephemeris and clock offsets, similar to centralized systems [11]. In a follow-on study [12], each spacecraft was limited to 2 communications antennae, forcing the selection of measurements and scheduling spacecraft activities to perform the measurements. A matching algorithm is implemented to select the best measurements and schedule position estimation updates. The decentralized localization performance is also investigated with increasing levels of network degradation for swarm assets considering the impact of intermittent and permanent communication failure, to demonstrate the robustness and fidelity of the decentralized Lunar PNT service [13]. This study confirmed that the ad-hoc PNT constellations in frozen orbit are highly robust and resilient to communication failures. However, unlike frozen orbit swarm assets, the low-altitude satellites have a limited ground view at an altitude of 100 km, where the ad-hoc Lunar constellation consists of 98 low-altitude satellites, evenly distributed across seven circular polar orbital planes, alongside two satellites in a frozen orbit at an altitude of 5,500 km (Figure 1). Therefore, the number of satellites visible to ground users is significantly limited in low-altitude orbit constellations. As each visibility of a spacecraft remains intact for only a few ticks before it moves out of the field of view, the ground user encounters challenges in maintaining continuous navigation service, resulting in sparse availability and provision of Lunar PNT system. Consequently, service availability is primarily restricted to the Lunar South Pole region (Figure 2). Given these limitations and concerns, the localization performance of low-altitude swarm assets will be assessed in this study. We focus on the investigation of the localization performance of low-altitude swarm assets and ground users near the Lunar South Pole. The overall flow of the Lunar PNT simulation incorporates the DEKF approach of asset localization and the weighted least-squares approach in user localization (Figure 3). The autonomous Lunar PNT simulation is primarily implemented in MATLAB, where the DEKF based on the matching scheduler is implemented with Google’s OR-tools as a model builder and Gurobi optimization tool as a backend solver. The General Mission Analysis Tool (GMAT) is utilized to generate ephemeris data for swarm assets, and accounts for satellite orbital details, mass, and perturbations like solar radiation pressure and drag coefficients. Each ephemeris dataset is produced in the Moon International Celestial Reference Frame (ICRF) inertial coordinate system. For state estimation, the distributed swarm assets rely on two-way Inter-Satellite Link (ISL) measurements, which involve tracking pseudoranges and relative velocities between visible satellites and anchor nodes during each observation. Numerical evaluations of the decentralized localization process are conducted to demonstrate the feasibility of the low-altitude PNT system in providing reliable navigation services. The main approach involves using DEKF and CEKF to localize 100 satellites in low-altitude constellations, where the CEKF is implemented to serve as a baseline for comparing the performance of distributed algorithms. In both cases, we evaluate ‘fully sampled’ measurements from all available assets, and ‘two ISL’ measurements when spacecraft are constrained to have only two antennas. We test four estimation techniques: CEKF fully sampled, CEKF two ISL, DEKF fully sampled, and DEKF two ISL filters. As the DEKF update cycle is comprised of network setup, communication, and computations, a global broadcast network and 2-way ISL network setup will take from 4 to 6 minutes as maximum [12]. In this simulation, the DEKF update cycle is set to 10 minutes, including a 4-minute latency for obtaining and computing the actual measurement updates. We experiment an increased update cycle to demonstrate the feasibility and evaluate the impact on localization performance using various tuning values for measurement noise covariances (Figures 4 and 5). By comparing centralized and decentralized approaches using a matching algorithm, we analyze the influence of cross-correlation factors in the covariance matrix, assuming 100% reliability of all assets and measurements. The increased frequency and the adjustments of tuning parameters reveal distinct error patterns between the two scenarios. The localization accuracy of the swarm assets and ground users is assessed by taking the median error across 100 assets and one ground user (84.9°S, 137.5°E) over 7-day simulation period (Table 1). Since the user localization accuracy is significantly affected by the performance of the swarm assets, it is crucial to maintain high localization accuracy within the swarm. This study will continue to explore decentralized filtering for autonomous LPNT operations, with further investigation of an 'iterative' matching approach which enumerates every valid matching pair, planned for the following month.

Yeji Kim↗