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At least 307 records · Page 17

Forecasting and modeling of the COVID-19 pandemic in the USA with a timed intervention model

We propose a novel Timed Intervention S, P, E, I, Q, R, D model for projecting the possible futures of the COVID-19 pandemic in the USA. The proposed model introduces a series of timed interventions that can account for the influence of real time changes in government policy and social norms. We consider three separate types of interventions: (i) Protective interventions: Where population moves from susceptible to protected corresponding to mask mandates, stay-at-home orders and/or social distancing. (ii) Release interventions: Where population moves from protected to susceptible corresponding to social distancing mandates and practices being lifted by policy or pandemic fatigue. (iii) Vaccination interventions: Where population moves from susceptible, protected, and exposed to recovered (meaning immune) corresponding to the mass immunization of the U.S. Population. By treating the pandemic with timed interventions, we are able to model the pandemic extremely effectively, as well as directly predicting the course of the pandemic under differing sets of intervention schedules. We show that without prompt effective protective/vaccination interventions the pandemic will be extended significantly and result in many millions of deaths in the U.S.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Planck 2018 results - IV. Diffuse component separation

We present full-sky maps of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) and polarized synchrotron and thermal dust emission, derived from the third set of Planck frequency maps. These products have significantly lower contamination from instrumental systematic effects than previous versions. The methodologies used to derive these maps follow closely those described in earlier papers, adopting four methods (Commander, NILC, SEVEM, and SMICA) to extract the CMB component, as well as three methods (Commander, GNILC, and SMICA) to extract astrophysical components. Our revised CMB temperature maps agree with corresponding products in the Planck 2015 delivery, whereas the polarization maps exhibit significantly lower large-scale power, reflecting the improved data processing described in companion papers; however, the noise properties of the resulting data products are complicated, and the best available end-to-end simulations exhibit relative biases with respect to the data at the few percent level. Using these maps, we are for the first time able to fit the spectral index of thermal dust independently over 3° regions. We derive a conservative estimate of the mean spectral index of polarized thermal dust emission of β d = 1.55 ± 0.05, where the uncertainty marginalizes both over all known systematic uncertainties and different estimation techniques. For polarized synchrotron emission, we find a mean spectral index of β s = -3.1 ± 0.1, consistent with previously reported measurements. We note that the current data processing does not allow for construction of unbiased single-bolometer maps, and this limits our ability to extract CO emission and correlated components. The foreground results for intensity derived in this paper therefore do not supersede corresponding Planck 2015 products. For polarization the new results supersede the corresponding 2015 products in all respects.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Wee partons in QCD and gravity: Double copy and universality

We discuss a quantitative “double copy” between radiation from shockwave collisions in Einstein gravity and in QCD. The correspondence extends to 2 → N amplitudes in Regge asymptotics. The classicalization and unitarization of these amplitudes at maximal occupancy, corresponding to black hole and Color Glass Condensate (CGC) states respectively, are described by the emergent Goldstone dynamics of wee partons. We outline some consequences of the universal dynamics on both sides of the correspondence.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

A generalized forward fit for neutron detectors with energy-dependent response functions

To date, most analysis of neutron time-of-flight data from inertial confinement fusion experiments has focused on the relatively small range of energies corresponding to the primary neutrons from DD and DT fusion, and have therefore employed instrument response functions (IRF’s) corresponding to monoenergetic 2.45-MeV or 14.03-MeV neutrons. For analysis of time-of-flight signals corresponding to broader ranges of neutron energies, accurate treatment of the data requires the use of an energy-dependent IRF. Here, this work describes interpolation of the IRF for neutrons of arbitrary energy, construction of an energy-dependent IRF, and application of this IRF in a forward fit via matrix multiplication. As an example of the application of this method, an analysis of synthetic data relevant to TT fusion experiments at the Omega Laser Facility is discussed. This example is used to illustrate the differences between a forward fit that uses an energy-dependent IRF and a forward fit that uses a monoenergetic IRF. Use of the energy-dependent IRF is shown to result in accurate inference of the fit parameters of interest.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Generating accurate density matrices on the tangent space of a Grassmann manifold

Interpolating a density matrix from a set of known density matrices is not a trivial task. This is because a linear combination of density matrices does not necessarily correspond to another density matrix. In this Communication, density matrices are examined as objects of a Grassmann manifold. Although this manifold is not a vector space, its tangent space is a vector space. As a result, one can map the density matrices on this manifold to their corresponding vectors in the tangent space and then perform interpolations on that tangent space. The resulting interpolated vector can be mapped back to the Grassmann manifold, which can then be utilized (1) as an optimal initial guess for a self-consistent field (SCF) calculation or (2) to derive energy directly without time-consuming SCF iterations. Such a promising approach is denoted as Grassmann interpolation (G-Int). The hydrogen molecule has been used to illustrate that the described interpolated method in this work preserves the essential attributes of a density matrix. For phosphorus mononitride and ferrocene, it was demonstrated numerically that reference points for the definition of the corresponding tangent spaces can be chosen arbitrarily. In addition, the interpolated density matrices provide a superior and essentially converged initial guess for an SCF calculation to make the SCF procedure itself unnecessary. Finally, this accurate, efficient, robust, and systematically improved G-Int strategy has been used for the first time to generate highly accurate potential energy surfaces with fine details for the difficult case, ferrocene.

Chemistry↗

Effect of electronic transitions on near edge optical properties of off-stoichiometric boron carbide thin films

In the present study, soft x-ray optical properties of off-stoichiometric boron carbide thin films are investigated, and the structure and chemical composition of the film is analyzed using angle dependent x-ray reflectivity and x-ray photoelectron spectroscopy techniques. Energy dependent soft x-ray reflectivity measured at a fixed grazing angle of 1.5° is used to determine the optical constants in the boron K edge region by applying the Kramers–Kronig technique. The measured optical constants show near edge fine features corresponding to σ* and π* resonances. Furthermore, the electronic transitions corresponding to σ* resonance cause a 40%–75% increase in the delta value in the above boron K edge region. The π* transitions corresponding to off-stoichiometric nature of the boron carbide are observed in the absorption spectra near ~ 192.7 eV. Details of the measured soft x-ray optical properties of the off-stoichiometric boron carbide thin film are discussed.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Using the Metropolis algorithm to explore the loss surface of a recurrent neural network

In the limit of small trial moves the Metropolis Monte Carlo algorithm is equivalent to gradient descent on the energy function in the presence of Gaussian white noise. This observation was originally used to demonstrate a correspondence between Metropolis Monte Carlo moves of model molecules and overdamped Langevin dynamics, but it also applies in the context of training a neural network: making small random changes to the weights of a neural network, accepted with the Metropolis probability, with the loss function playing the role of energy, has the same effect as training by explicit gradient descent in the presence of Gaussian white noise. We explore this correspondence in the context of a simple recurrent neural network. We also explore regimes in which this correspondence breaks down, where the gradient of the loss function becomes very large or small. In these regimes the Metropolis algorithm can still effect training, and so can be used as a probe of the loss function of a neural network in regimes in which gradient descent struggles. We also show that training can be accelerated by making purposely-designed Monte Carlo trial moves of neural-network weights.

Casert, Corneel↗

Dynamical System Scaling Application to Zircaloy Cladding Thermal Response During Reactivity-Initiated Accident Experiment

New fuel design and development currently requires 20 to 25 years to be qualified for use by the nuclear power industry. The thermal-hydraulics community has taken advantage of scaling theory to design reduced scale experiments that correctly preserve dominant key phenomena while quantifying distorted phenomena. These techniques can be leveraged in the design and analysis of fuel performance experiments to help reduce the timeline associated with fuel design and development. This study uses the Dynamical System Scaling (DSS) method to analyze cladding temperature data from the recent SETH-C experiment in the TREAT facility and accompanying BISON simulations to assess dynamic distortions occurring throughout the fast power excursion transient. The DSS analysis revealed that on the cool down from peak cladding temperature that the fuel radial power profile is the most sensitive modeling parameter with a heterogenous radial peaking factor corresponding to the lowest distortion compared to a uniform energy deposition. For the heat up to peak cladding temperature the heterogeneous radial power profile corresponded to the shortest process action. Finally, for the heat up to peak cladding temperature, the gap conductance model sensitivity was quantified using process action and shows that the default Light Water Reactor gap conductance model corresponded to the longest process action.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Erosion and cathodic arc plasma of Nb–Al cathodes: composite versus intermetallic

Many properties of cathodic arcs from single-element cathodes show a correlation to the cohesive energy of the cathode material. For example, the burning voltage, the erosion rate, or, to a lesser extent, plasma properties like electron temperatures or average ion energy and charge states. For multi-element cathodes, various phases with different cohesive energies can initially be present in the cathode, or form due to arc exposure, complicating the evaluation of such correlations. To test the influence of morphology and phase composition of multi-element cathodes on cathodic arc properties, a Nb–Al cathode model system was used that includes: pure Nb and Al cathodes; intermetallic Nb 3 Al, Nb 2 Al and NbAl 3 cathodes; and three composite Nb–Al cathodes with atomic ratios corresponding to the stoichiometric ratios of the intermetallic phases. Pulsed cathodic arc plasmas from these cathodes were examined using a mass-per-charge and energy-per-charge analyzer, showing that charge-state-resolved ion energy distributions of plasmas from the intermetallic and corresponding composite cathodes are nearly identical. An examination of converted layers of eroded cathodes using x-ray diffraction and scanning electron microscopy indicates the formation of a surface layer with similar phase composition for intermetallic and their corresponding composite cathode types. The average arc voltages do not follow the trend of cohesive energies of Nb, Al and intermetallic Nb–Al phases, which have been calculated using density functional theory. Possible reasons for this effect are discussed based on the current knowledge of multi-element arc cathodes and their arc plasma available in literature.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Cosmological evolution of ultralight axionlike scalar fields

In this paper, we examine the cosmological evolution of ultralight axionlike (ULA) scalar fields with potentials of the form V(Φ)=m 2 f 2 [1–cos(Φ/f)] n , with particular emphasis on the deviation in their behavior from the corresponding small–Φ power-law approximations to these potentials: V(Φ)∝Φ 2n . We show that in the slow-roll regime, when Φ ˙2 /2 $\ll$ V(Φ), the full ULA potentials yield a more interesting range of possibilities for quintessence than do the corresponding power law approximations. For rapidly oscillating scalar fields, we derive the equation of state parameter and oscillation frequency for the ULA potentials and show how they deviate from the corresponding power-law values. We derive an analytic expression for the equation of state parameter that better approximates the ULA value than does the pure power-law approximation.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Axion dark matter experiment: Run 1B analysis details

Searching for axion dark matter, the ADMX Collaboration acquired data from January to October 2018, over the mass range 2.81–3.31 μeV, corresponding to the frequency range 680–790 MHz. Using an axion haloscope consisting of a microwave cavity in a strong magnetic field, the ADMX experiment excluded Dine-Fischler-Srednicki-Zhitnisky (DFSZ) axions at 90% confidence level and 100% dark matter density over this entire frequency range, except for a few gaps due to mode crossings. This paper explains the full ADMX analysis for run 1B, motivating analysis choices informed by details specific to this run.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Universal features of 2 → N scattering in QCD and gravity from shockwave collisions

A remarkable double-copy relation of Einstein gravity to QCD in Regge asymptotics is Γ μ ν = 1 2 C μ C ν − 1 2 N μ N ν , where Γ μ ν is the gravitational Lipatov vertex in the 2 → 3 graviton scattering amplitude, C μ its Yang-Mills counterpart, and N μ the QED bremsstrahlung vertex. In QCD, the Lipatov vertex is a fundamental building block of the BFKL equation describing the 2 → N scattering of gluons at high energies. Likewise, the gravitational Lipatov vertex is a key ingredient in a 2D effective field theory framework describing trans-Planckian 2 → N graviton scattering. We construct a quantitative correspondence between a semiclassical Yang-Mills framework for radiation in gluon shockwave collisions and its counterpart in general relativity. In particular, we demonstrate the Lipatov double copy in a dilute-dilute approximation corresponding to R S , L , R S , H ≪ b , where R S , L , R S , H are the respective emergent Schwarzchild radii generated in shockwave collisions and b is the impact parameter. We outline extensions of the correspondence developed here to the dilute-dense computation of gravitational wave radiation in the close vicinity of one of the black holes, the construction of graviton propagators in the shockwave background, and a renormalization group approach to compute 2 → N amplitudes that incorporates graviton Reggeization and coherent graviton multiple scattering. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Near-threshold states in coupled D D * − D * D * scattering from lattice QCD

The first determination of doubly charmed isospin-0 coupled-channel D D * − D * D * scattering amplitudes from lattice quantum chromodynamics (QCD) is presented. The finite-volume spectrum is computed for three lattice volumes with a light-quark mass corresponding to m π ≈ 391 MeV and is used to extract the scattering amplitudes in J P = 1 + via the Lüscher quantization condition. By analytically continuing the scattering amplitudes to complex energies, a T c c pole corresponding to a virtual bound state is found below D D * threshold. We also find a second pole, T c c ′ , corresponding to a resonance pole below the kinematically closed D * D * channel, to which it has a strong coupling. A nonzero coupling is robustly found between the S -wave D D * and D * D * channels producing a clear cusp in the D D * amplitude at the D * D * threshold energy. This suggests that the experimental T c c ′ should be observable in D D * and D * D * final states at ongoing experiments. Published by the American Physical Society 2025

Whyte, Travis (ORCID:000000027661301X)↗

Realizable hyperuniform and nonhyperuniform particle configurations with targeted spectral functions via effective pair interactions

The capacity to identify realizable many-body configurations associated with targeted functional forms for the pair correlation function $g_2(r)$ or its corresponding structure factor $\textit{S(k)}$ is of great fundamental and practical importance. While there are obvious necessary conditions that a prescribed structure factor at number density ρ must satisfy to be configurationally realizable, sufficient conditions are generally not known due to the infinite degeneracy of configurations with different higher-order correlation functions. A major aim of this paper is to expand our theoretical knowledge of the class of pair correlation functions or structure factors that are realizable by classical disordered ensembles of particle configurations, including exotic “hyperuniform” varieties. We first introduce a theoretical formalism that provides a means to draw classical particle configurations from canonical ensembles with certain pairwise-additive potentials that could correspond to targeted analytical functional forms for the structure factor. This formulation enables us to devise an improved algorithm to construct systematically canonical-ensemble particle configurations with such targeted pair statistics, whenever realizable. As a proof of concept, we test the algorithm by targeting several different structure factors across dimensions that are known to be realizable and one hyperuniform target that is known to be nontrivially unrealizable. Our algorithm succeeds for all realizable targets and appropriately fails for the unrealizable target, demonstrating the accuracy and power of the method to numerically investigate the realizability problem. Subsequently, we also target several families of structure-factor functions that meet the known necessary realizability conditions but are not known to be realizable by disordered hyperuniform point configurations, including $\textit{d}$-dimensional Gaussian structure factors, $\textit{d}$-dimensional generalizations of the two-dimensional one-component plasma (OCP), and the $\textit{d}$-dimensional Fourier duals of the previous OCP cases. Moreover, we also explore unusual nonhyperuniform targets, including “hyposurficial” and “antihyperuniform” examples. In all of these instances, the targeted structure factors are achieved with high accuracy, suggesting that they are indeed realizable by equilibrium configurations with pairwise interactions at positive temperatures. Remarkably, we also show that the structure factor of nonequilibrium perfect glass, specified by two-, three-, and four-body interactions, can also be realized by equilibrium pair interactions at positive temperatures. In this work, our findings lead us to the conjecture that any realizable structure factor corresponding to either a translationally invariant equilibrium or nonequilibrium system can be attained by an equilibrium ensemble involving only effective pair interactions. Our investigation not only broadens our knowledge of analytical functional forms for $g_2(r)$ and $\textit{S(k)}$ associated with disordered point configurations across dimensions but also deepens our understanding of many-body physics. Moreover, our work can be applied to the design of materials with desirable physical properties that can be tuned by their pair statistics.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Early-Time Exponential Instabilities in Nonchaotic Quantum Systems

The majority of classical dynamical systems are chaotic and exhibit the butterfly effect: a minute change in initial conditions has exponentially large effects later on. But this phenomenon is difficult to reconcile with quantum mechanics. One of the main goals in the field of quantum chaos is to establish a correspondence between the dynamics of classical chaotic systems and their quantum counterparts. In isolated systems in the absence of decoherence, there is such a correspondence in dynamics, but it usually persists only over a short time window, after which quantum interference washes out classical chaos. In this work, we demonstrate that quantum mechanics can also play the opposite role and generate exponential instabilities in classically nonchaotic systems within this early-time window. Our calculations employ the out-of-time-ordered correlator (OTOC)—a diagnostic that reduces to the Lyapunov exponent in the classical limit but is well defined for general quantum systems. We show that certain classically nonchaotic models, such as polygonal billiards, demonstrate a Lyapunov-like exponential growth of the OTOC at early times with Planck’s-constant-dependent rates. This behavior is sharply contrasted with the slow early-time growth of the analog of the OTOC in the systems’ classical counterparts. These results suggest that classical-to-quantum correspondence in dynamics is violated in the OTOC even before quantum interference develops.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Classifying Topology in Photonic Heterostructures with Gapless Environments

Photonic topological insulators exhibit bulk-boundary correspondence, which requires that boundary-localized states appear at the interface formed between topologically distinct insulating materials. However, many topological photonic devices share a boundary with free space, which raises a subtle but critical problem as free space is gapless for photons above the light line. Here, we use a local theory of topological materials to resolve bulk-boundary correspondence in heterostructures containing gapless materials and in radiative environments. In particular, we construct the heterostructure’s spectral localizer, a composite operator based on the system’s real-space description that provides a local marker for the system’s topology and a corresponding local measure of its topological protection; both quantities are independent of the material’s bulk band gap (or lack thereof). Moreover, we show that approximating radiative outcoupling as material absorption overestimates a heterostructure’s topological protection. Importantly, as the spectral localizer is applicable to systems in any physical dimension and in any discrete symmetry class (i.e., any Altland-Zirnbauer class), our results show how to calculate topological invariants, quantify topological protection, and locate topological boundary-localized resonances in topological materials that interface with gapless media in general.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗

Characterization of Precipitation-Induced Radon Progeny Deposition Events Using a City-Scale Sensor Network

Networks of radiation detectors provide a platform for real-time radioactive source detection and identification in urban environments. Detection algorithms in these systems must adapt to naturally-occurring changes in background, which requires well-characterized relationships between precipitation events and their corresponding radiological signature. Here, we present a quantitative and qualitative description of rain-induced radon progeny deposition events occurring in Chicago from September 2023 to February 2024. We measure ambient gamma radiation levels, precipitation rate, temperature, pressure, and relative humidity in a network of sensor nodes. For each identified precipitation period, we decompose spectra into static- and radon-associated components as defined by a non-negative matrix factorization (NMF) algorithm. We find a consistent power-law relationship between a precipitation-dependent peak of the radon progeny proxy (RPP) and the peak strength of the radon-associated NMF component for most precipitation events. We conduct a case study of a rainfall period with abnormally high levels of implied radon progeny concentration and describe its temporal and spatial evolution. We hypothesize that this phenomenon is due to the air mass path that intersects a uranium-rich region of Wyoming. Finally, we cluster precipitation events into three distinct categories. One category roughly corresponds to events with deep low-pressure systems and high relative radon concentration, while another is characteristic of light stratiform rain with slightly higher temperatures and intermediate relative radon concentration. The third category appears to contain weak-gradient or lake breeze convection showers with intermittent precipitation and low relative radon concentration. These findings suggest that radiological anomaly detection could be improved by training unique background models corresponding to each category of meteorological event.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

A multi-specific, multi-affinity antibody platform neutralizes sarbecoviruses and confers protection against SARS-CoV-2 in vivo

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the causative agent of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), has been responsible for a global pandemic. Monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) have been used as antiviral therapeutics; however, these therapeutics have been limited in efficacy by viral sequence variability in emerging variants of concern (VOCs) and in deployment by the need for high doses. In this study, we leveraged the multi-specific, multi-affinity antibody (Multabody, MB) platform, derived from the human apoferritin protomer, to enable the multimerization of antibody fragments. MBs were shown to be highly potent, neutralizing SARS-CoV-2 at lower concentrations than their corresponding mAb counterparts. In mice infected with SARS-CoV-2, a tri-specific MB targeting three regions within the SARS-CoV-2 receptor binding domain was protective at a 30-fold lower dose than a cocktail of the corresponding mAbs. Furthermore, we showed in vitro that mono-specific MBs potently neutralize SARS-CoV-2 VOCs by leveraging augmented avidity, even when corresponding mAbs lose their ability to neutralize potently, and that tri-specific MBs expanded the neutralization breadth beyond SARS-CoV-2 to other sarbecoviruses. Our work demonstrates how avidity and multi-specificity combined can be leveraged to confer protection and resilience against viral diversity that exceeds that of traditional monoclonal antibody therapies.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗