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At least 307 records · Page 17

Introduction to Special Collection ``The Exceptional Arctic Stratospheric Polar Vortex in 2019/2020: Causes and Consequences"

This paper introduces the special collection in Geophysical Research Letters and Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres on the exceptional stratospheric polar vortex in 2019/2020. Papers in this collection show that the 2019/2020 stratospheric polar vortex was the strongest, most persistent, and coldest on record in the Arctic. The unprecedented Arctic chemical processing and ozone loss in spring 2020 have been studied using numerous satellite and ground-based data sets and chemistry-transport models. Quantitative estimates of chemical loss are broadly consistent among the studies and show profile loss of about the same magnitude as in the Arctic in 2011, but with most loss at lower altitudes; column loss was comparable to or larger than that in 2011. Several papers show evidence of dynamical coupling from the mesosphere down to the surface. Studies of tropospheric influence and impacts link the exceptionally strong vortex to reflection of upward propagating waves and show coupling to tropospheric anomalies, including extreme heat, precipitation, windstorms, and marine cold air outbreaks. Predictability of the exceptional stratospheric polar vortex in 2019/2020 and related predictability of surface conditions are explored. The exceptionally strong stratospheric polar vortex in 2019/2020 highlights the extreme interannual variability in the Arctic winter/spring stratosphere and the far-reaching consequences of such extremes.

Artic↗

The Unintended Consequences of Focusing on Human Error (And How You Can Help)

The literature on human performance is rich with findings of cognitive failures and methods to identify, label, and measure them. In many real-world contexts, however, outcomes are driven far more by successful than failed cognition. Designers of systems intended for human use, in an effort to be “data driven,” rely upon findings from the cognitive performance literature to inform their system designs. When most available data are about human error, data-driven designs focus on the human primarily as a source of failure. Designs intended to support or replace humans often fail to acknowledge or understand the capabilities that humans routinely contribute to successful performance. Consequently, designs intended to “protect” the system from “error-prone” humans can design-out the capability for the human to effectively intervene or adapt. The development of paradigms to study successful human performance represents a significant and largely untapped opportunity for research in cognition.

Jon Holbrook↗

An Approach for Assessing Consequences of Potential Supply Chain and Insider Contributed Cyber Attacks on Nuclear Power Plants

The Stuxnet attack at the Natanz facility is an example of a targeted and successful cyber attack on a nuclear facility. Snowden's release of National Security Agency documents demonstrated the consequences of the insider threat. More recently, the United States tried to attack North Korea but failed, South Korea was attempting to attack North Korea, and both applied Stuxnet-like approaches. These sophisticated targeted attacks differ from web-site hacking events that are reported almost daily in the news mainly because targeted attacks require detailed design and operation information of the systems attacked and/or are often carried out by insiders. For instance, in order to minimize disruption of facilities around the world, Stuxnet remained idle until it recognized the specific configuration of the Natanz facility, demonstrating that the attackers possessed extremely detailed information about the facility. Such targeted cyber attacks could become a national-level military weapon and be used in coercion of hostile countries.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Intelligent Consequence Control by Aerial Reconnoiter Using Unmanned Systems

In a nuclear accident, or in the aftermath of an improvised nuclear device or radiological dispersal device detonation, radioactive materials may pose a severe health threat to individuals near the site of the incident. The Intelligent Consequence Control by Aerial Reconnoiter Using Unmanned Systems (ICARUS) does the dull, dirty, and dangerous (and, sometimes, deep) work of mapping and characterizing valuable information to enable a safe and appropriate response. ICARUS provides timely answers to the questions, “What is it?” “Where is it?”, and “How far does it extend?” Using commercial, off-the-shelf proven components, the integrated chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear, and explosives detection architecture for our drones provides a solution for collecting radiological, chemical, and optical information on developing complex situations, returning actionable data for determining if it is safe for further response efforts. ICARUS can determine and transmit the location, identity, and intensity of radionuclide contamination to a remote base station. It can deliver on the unexpected.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Consequence Management Monitoring Strategies

This presentation will be used in the pilot NA-81 Consequence Monument course. This presentation discusses monitoring techniques that can be used when responding to a radiological incident.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

Consequence Based Framework for Deployment of Cloud Solutions in the Digital Energy Transition

This study proposes a framework for evaluating cloud computing deployment in the electric sector, focusing on the digital transition of energy systems. It assesses the implications of cloud technology adoption, particularly in terms of security, operational resilience, and efficiency. The paper introduces a framework for consequence-driven applied risk analysis, enabling utilities to prioritize and mitigate potential threats effectively, and responsibly deploy cloud applications. It also discusses the shared responsibility model in cloud computing, highlighting the need for collaborative security efforts. The research aims to provide utilities with a strategic assessment tool for cloud adoption, emphasizing the importance of security culture in enhancing cloud computing's role in critical infrastructure.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

ECAR-5363 Rev 0 MARVEL Environmental Assessment Inhalation Dose Consequence Calculations

The following dose consequence analysis is performed to support the Microreactor Applications Research Validation and Evaluation Project (MARVEL) environmental assessment. The purpose of the MARVEL project is to develop a nuclear microreactor applications test bed at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) to perform research and development on various operational features of microreactors to ultimately improve integration of microreactors to end-user applications. The MARVEL concept is a 100-kilowatt thermal (kWth) and approximately 20-kilowatt electric (kWe) generating microreactor. The MARVEL system will be located in the INL TREAT facility in the north high bay equipment pit. This ECAR analyzes a maximum reasonably foreseeable accident for MARVEL as required by “Recommendations for Analyzing Accidents under NEPA.” Consistent with the recommendations from this guidance, this ECAR considers the median air dispersion parameters for INL in evaluation accident releases from the MARVEL reactor concept and documents the dose from the maximum reasonably foreseeable accident.

21 - SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLAN↗

ECAR-4310, Evaluation of the Inhalation Dose Consequences for the HALEU Environmental Assessment

The U. S. Department of Energy (DOE) proposes to expand the fuel fabrication capability at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) to produce needed quantities of High-Assay Low-Enriched Uranium (HALEU) fuel from down-blended EBR-II fuel processed at the Fuels Conditioning Facility (FCF) and stored at INL. The expansion of the fuel fabrication capability would include the purchase of new equipment and use of existing facilities at INL’s Materials Fuels Complex (MFC) and the Idaho Nuclear Technology and Engineering Center (INTEC). The purpose of this report is to document calculation of the estimated potential inhalation dose to members of the public and workers from accidental air emissions associated with production of HALEU fuel. This document supports the Environmental Assessment for Use of DOE-Owned HALEU Stored at Idaho National Laboratory.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

CCE Phase 3: Consequence-based Targeting

While Phase 2 was a data collection effort, Phase 3 is a targeting effort. In Phase 3, organizations systematically identify the necessary steps for adversary success - all from the adversary’s perspective. A key component to this approach is identifying the critical information needs, targets, access, and actions required for the adversary to achieve the desired effect. These Critical Needs are tied to accomplishing the HCE, such as the technical requirements for the payload (Development), or the access required to deliver a payload (Deployment).

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Consider the Consequences: A Powerful Approach for Reducing ICS Cyber Risk

Here, by identifying and analyzing threats, vulnerabilities, and impacts, asset owners can develop a risk profile for their industrial control systems (ICSs). This information is essential in developing, prioritizing, and implementing mitigations to reduce ICS cyber risk. To help bridge the gap between the cyber and physical domains, and gain a better understanding of cascading cyber/physical impacts, this paper will discuss the safety perspective of physical impacts, describe the ICS cyber kill chain model, explain the cyber/physical interface, review the “layers of protection analysis model” from a security perspective, discuss protection layers, and suggest a reference architecture for securing digital control devices.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Adoption of AI in the Utility T&D Sector: Use Cases, Consequence, Assessment and Benefits

Digital transformation and utilization of artificial intelligence (AI) in the electric grid are fundamentally changing the industry’s approach to common problems and enabling a broader paradigm shift in grid planning and operations. The change in approach is circularly both enabling and driving modernization, with load growth and reliable management of data center and AI infrastructure shifting away from planning approaches with relatively predictable behaviors and toward a mix of consumer and industrial choices that surpass human cognitive abilities to process. This movement has potential to condition humans to not understand the system on which the AI depends, while requiring it for development of the necessary infrastructure. Approaches which would address most likely grid conditions and events, such as faults, aging of equipment, and weather, now must also account for large loads which shift not based upon weather or time of day, but the computational load. Quantifying computational load is independent of the traditional grid forecasting variables, where a data center’s aggregate load is determined by user and AI system behavior and decoupled from normal grid planning and operations. AI is both the cause and solution for these challenges, with new grid planning tools integrating massive amounts of decisions into frameworks.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Directed in vitro evolution of bacterial expansin BsEXLX1 for higher cellulose binding and its consequences for plant cell wall-loosening activities

Expansins are cell wall-loosening proteins found in all land plants and many microbial species. Despite homologous structures, bacterial expansins have much weaker cellulose binding and wall-loosening activity than plant expansins. We hypothesized stronger cellulose binding would result in greater wall-loosening activity and used in vitro evolution of Bacillus subtilis BsEXLX1 to test this hypothesis. Mutants with stronger binding generally had greater wall-loosening activity, but the relationship was nonlinear and plateaued at ~ 40% higher than wild-type. Mutant E191K exhibited stronger cellulose binding but failed to induce creep, evidently due to protein mistargeting. These findings reveal the complexity of interactions between plant cell walls and wall-modifying proteins, a prime consideration when engineering proteins for applications in biofuel production and plant pathogen resistance.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Microphysical Consequences of the Spatial Distribution of Ice Nucleation in Mixed-Phase Stratiform Clouds

Mixed-phase stratiform clouds can persist even with steady ice precipitation fluxes, and the origin and microphysical properties of the ice crystals are of interest. Vapor deposition growth and sedimentation of ice particles along with a uniform volume source of ice nucleation, leads to a power law relation between ice water content wi and ice number concentration ni with exponent 2.5. The result is independent of assumptions about the vertical velocity structure of the cloud and is therefore more general than the related expression of Yang et al. [2013]. The sensitivity of the wi-ni relationship to the spatial distribution of ice nucleation is confirmed by Lagrangian tracking and ice growth with cloud-volume, cloud-top, and cloud-base sources of ice particles through a time-dependent cloud field. Based on observed wi and ni from ISDAC, a lower bound of 0.006 m^3/s is obtained for the ice crystal formation rate.

ice precipitation fluxes↗

Consequences of systematic model drift in DYNAMO MJO hindcasts with SP-CAM and CAM5

Hindcast simulations of MJO events during the dynamics of the MJO (DYNAMO) field campaign are conducted with two models, one with conventional parameterization (CAM5) and a comparable model that utilizes superparameterization (SP–CAM). SP–CAM is shown to produce a qualitatively better reproduction of the fluctuations of precipitation and low–level zonal wind associated with the first two DYNAMO MJO events compared to CAM5. Interestingly, skill metrics using the real–time multivariate MJO index (RMM) suggest the opposite conclusion that CAM5 has more skill than SP–CAM. This inconsistency can be explained by a systematic increase of RMM amplitude with lead time, which results from a drift of the large–scale wind field in SP–CAM that projects strongly onto the RMM index. CAM5 hindcasts exhibit a contraction of the moisture distribution, in which extreme wet and dry conditions become less frequent with lead time. SP–CAM hindcasts better reproduce the observed moisture distribution, but also have stronger drift patterns of moisture budget terms, such as an increase in drying by meridional advection in SP–CAM. This advection tendency in SP–CAM appears to be associated with enhanced off–equatorial synoptic eddy activity with lead time. In conclusion, systematic drift moisture tendencies in SP–CAM are of similar magnitude to intraseasonal moisture tendencies, and therefore are important for understanding MJO prediction skill.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Mechanical Consequences of Oxygen Inhibition in Vat Polymerization

Vat polymerization is a type of additive manufacturing that is used extensively to produce micro-architected structures for mechanical applications, which brings the mechanical properties of photopolymerized resins into sharp focus. However, it is known that photopolymerization is sensitive to a number of factors, perhaps the most notorious of which is oxygen inhibition. Herein, the degree to which oxygen inhibition influences the macroscopic and microscopic properties of structures made using vat polymerization is explored. This work is motivated by an observation of lattices being >4 times softer in the experiment than predicted by simulation, which is hypothesized to be due to the material at the surface being incompletely cured. Furthermore, this hypothesis is supported by four-point bending tests in which flexural modulus is found to increase with beam thickness. Nanoindentation and bulk compression studies show that this surface softening is present for three distinct resins. Importantly, it is observed that structures post-print cured in nitrogen are stiffer than those post-print cured in air, however, regardless of the post-print curing environment, printing samples in the presence of oxygen makes them softer than samples photocured in nitrogen. Collectively, these results show the outsized influence of oxygen inhibition on micro-architected structures realized using vat polymerization.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Heterogeneity of the Dominant Causes of Performance Loss in End-of-Life Cathodes and Their Consequences for Direct Recycling

Recycling Li-ion batteries from electric vehicles is critical for reducing costs and supporting the development of a domestic battery supply chain. Direct recycling of cathodes, like LiNixMnyCozO2 (NMC), is attractive due to its low cost, energy use, and emissions compared to traditional recycling techniques. However, a comprehensive understanding of the active material properties at end-of-life is needed to guide direct recycling processes and the performance-dependent reuse applications. Here, NMC material from an end-of-life commercial pouch cell is characterized and bench-marked against pristine non-cycled counterparts with respect to capacity, impedance, crystallography, morphology, and microstructure to identify major degradation modes and understand variability in the end-of-life material. The spatial heterogeneity of each property throughout the cell is also quantified. While the degraded material demonstrated similar capacity as the pristine, its impedance and rate capability are severely diminished. Furthermore, samples from the periphery of the electrode layers showed more severe performance loss compared to samples extracted from central regions. The dominant culprit of performance loss is the material microstructure, where the magnitude of particle cracking showed the strongest correlation to the impedance components that are most unfavorably impacted. This work suggests severe cracks in cathode active materials are the primary challenge that direct recycling methods must overcome.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Size‐Dependent Dispersion of Rhodium Clusters into Isolated Single Atoms at Low Temperature and the Consequences for CO Oxidation Activity

Abstract Understanding the dynamic structural evolution of supported metal clusters under reaction conditions is crucial to develop structure reactivity relations. Here, we followed the structure of different size Rh clusters supported on Al 2 O 3 using in situ/operando spectroscopy and ex situ aberration‐corrected electron microscopy. We report a dynamic evolution of rhodium clusters into thermally stable isolated single atoms upon exposure to oxygen and during CO oxidation. Rh clusters partially disperse into single atoms at room temperature and the extent of dispersion increases as the Rh size decreases and as the reaction temperature increases. A strong correlation is found between the extent of dispersion and the CO oxidation kinetics. More importantly, dispersing Rh clusters into single atoms increases the activity at room temperature by more than two orders of magnitude due to the much lower activation energy on single atoms (40 vs. 130 kJ/mol). This work demonstrates that the structure and reactivity of small Rh clusters are very sensitive to the reaction environment.

Albrahim, Malik A.↗