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At least 307 records · Page 17

Model Checking Artificial Intelligence Based Planners: Even the Best Laid Plans Must Be Verified

Automated planning systems (APS) are gaining acceptance for use on NASA missions as evidenced by APS flown On missions such as Orbiter and Deep Space 1 both of which were commanded by onboard planning systems. The planning system takes high level goals and expands them onboard into a detailed of action fiat the spacecraft executes. The system must be verified to ensure that the automatically generated plans achieve the goals as expected and do not generate actions that would harm the spacecraft or mission. These systems are typically tested using empirical methods. Formal methods, such as model checking, offer exhaustive or measurable test coverage which leads to much greater confidence in correctness. This paper describes a formal method based on the SPIN model checker. This method guarantees that possible plans meet certain desirable properties. We express the input model in Promela, the language of SPIN and express the properties of desirable plans formally.

model checking↗

Development of a Climatology of Vertically Complete Wind Profiles from Doppler Radar Wind Profiler Systems

This paper describes in detail the QC and splicing methodology for KSC's 50- and 915-MHz DRWP measurements that generates an extensive archive of vertically complete profiles from 0.20-18.45 km. The concurrent POR from each archive extends from April 2000 to December 2009. MSFC NE applies separate but similar QC processes to each of the 50- and 915-MHz DRWP archives. DRWP literature and data examination provide the basis for developing and applying the automated and manual QC processes on both archives. Depending on the month, the QC'ed 50- and 915-MHz DRWP archives retain 52-65% and 16-30% of the possible data, respectively. The 50- and 915-MHz DRWP QC archives retain 84-91% and 85-95%, respectively, of all the available data provided that data exist in the non- QC'ed archives. Next, MSFC NE applies an algorithm to splice concurrent measurements from both DRWP sources. Last, MSFC NE generates a composite profile from the (up to) five available spliced profiles to effectively characterize boundary layer winds and to utilize all possible 915-MHz DRWP measurements at each timestamp. During a given month, roughly 23,000-32,000 complete profiles exist from 0.25-18.45 km from the composite profiles' archive, and approximately 5,000- 27,000 complete profiles exist from an archive utilizing an individual 915-MHz DRWP. One can extract a variety of profile combinations (pairs, triplets, etc.) from this sample for a given application. The sample of vertically complete DRWP wind measurements not only gives launch vehicle customers greater confidence in loads and trajectory assessments versus using balloon output, but also provides flexibility to simulate different DOL situations across applicable altitudes. In addition to increasing sample size and providing more flexibility for DOL simulations in the vehicle design phase, the spliced DRWP database provides any upcoming launch vehicle program with the capability to utilize DRWP profiles on DOL to compute vehicle steering commands, provided the program applies the procedures that this report describes to new DRWP data on DOL. Decker et al. (2015) details how SLS is proposing to use DRWP data and splicing techniques on DOL. Although automation could enhance the current DOL 50-MHz DRWP QC process and could streamline any future DOL 915-MHz DRWP QC and splicing process, the DOL community would still require manual intervention to ensure that the vehicle only uses valid profiles. If a program desires to use high spatial resolution profiles, then the algorithm could randomly add high-frequency components to the DRWP profiles. The spliced DRWP database provides lots of flexibility in how one performs DOL simulations, and the algorithms that this report provides will assist the aerospace and atmospheric communities that are interested in utilizing the DRWP.

Barbre, Robert E., Jr.↗

NASA’s Advance Information Systems Technology (AIST) Program

NASA’s Earth Science Technology Office (ESTO) develops early-stage technologies to enhance scientific understanding. ESTO’s technologies can be reliably and confidently applied to a broad range of science measurements and missions, as well as facilitate practical applications to benefit society at large. As the lead technology office within the Earth Science Division of the NASA Science Mission Directorate, ESTO is focused on the technological challenges inherent to space-based investigations of our planet's dynamic, interrelated systems. Through flexible, science-driven technology strategies and a competitive selection process, ESTO-funded technologies have supported numerous Earth science missions as well as commercial applications. From next generation sensors and instruments to communication and information systems, ESTO technologies enable many NASA missions and data services. The Advanced Information Systems Technology (AIST) Program is one focal area of ESTO. AIST innovates information system technologies that enable the development of new observing systems as well as agile science investigations through data analytics and artificial intelligence tools and algorithms. AIST utilizes an end-to-end development approach with the goal of infusing mature technologies into future missions, measurements, and analysis. One thrust of AIST is data exploitation and analysis using an analytic center framework to make observational data and model output more accessible and usable to scientists conducting specific investigations as well as to extract higher-level science content and information from the data. The framework accelerates scientific discovery by harmonizing the data, tools, and computational resources. NASA’s upcoming Surface, Biology and Geology (SBG) mission is one such mission whose data architecture will leverage many of the technologies developed through the AIST program. This talk will highlight current and future program development goals.

Laura Rogers↗

Quantifying the Influence of Mechanistic Representation of Particle Dry Deposition on Historical Changes in Aerosol-Climate Interactions

Dry deposition removes short-lived climate forcers and their precursors from the atmosphere. The aerosol dry deposition schemes in many global climate models have been untouched for decades. Previous work hints that aerosol dry deposition is an uncertainty with respect to aerosol impacts on climate change. Here we demonstrate the impact of a more mechanistic aerosol dry deposition parameterization on the historical aerosol direct and cloud albedo effects using the NASA GISS global chemistry-climate model. We investigate two aerosol configurations – a “bulk” mass-based scheme and a modal scheme that more explicitly represents internal mixing and microphysics – of the global model. Both configurations show ~20% larger historical increases in non-dust aerosols globally with more mechanistic dry deposition. Changes to particle dry deposition, which are strongly a function of particle diameter, have a greater influence on the cloud albedo effect (up to 0.1 W m-2) when aerosols are more explicitly resolved in the modal scheme. On the other hand, impacts on the direct aerosol effect are small for both model configurations. In both aerosol configurations, the global climate effects are relatively insensitive to uncertainty in the strength of the uptake to dry deposition as suggested by (limited) measurements. In general, the low number of aerosol flux measurements and strong variability across existing observations challenge confidence in our understanding of dry depositional processes and changes with environmental conditions. Nonetheless, our work suggests that changes in dry deposition may be important for accurately estimating increases in aerosol abundances over the historical period, which is key for correct inferences about how cooling from aerosols has offset warming from greenhouse gases.

Dry deposition↗

Methane and nonmethane hydrocarbon concentrations in the North and South Atlantic marine boundary layer

Methane and nonmethane hydrocarbon (NMHC) data were collected in the Atlantic marine boundary layer from 40 N to 32 S latitude during October and November 1980. Average volume mixing ratios for CH4 of 1.69 + or - 0.02 ppmv were obtained north of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and 1.60 + or - 0.02 ppmv south of the ITCZ. The hemispheric CH4 gradient was very sharp, decreasing rapidly between 14 N and 10 N latitude. Gaseous NMHC concentrations (based on response as CH4) were measured simultaneously and found to lie consistently within the standard error for the individual measurements + or - 0.02 ppmv) after correction for water vapor interference. The correction for water vapor response was large, frequently as much as 80% of the raw NMHC signal. Application of the student's t distribution test to the NMHC data set established that the mean northern and southern hemispheric NMHC mixing ratios measured, 0.016 and 0.010 ppmv, respectively, were statistically different at the 95% confidence level. These results indicate volatile NMHC mixing ratios average less than 0.02 ppmv over the Atlantic and represent the first set of semicontinuous NMHC measurements spanning the North and South Atlantic marine boundary layer.

Cofer, W. R., III↗

Measurement of muon-induced high-energy neutrons from rock in an underground Gd-doped water detector

In this paper, we present a measurement of the rate of correlated neutron captures in the WATCHBOY detector, deployed at a depth of approximately 390 meters water equivalent (m.w.e.) in the Kimballton Underground Research Facility (KURF). WATCHBOY consists of a cylindrical 2 ton water target doped with 0.1% gadolinium, surrounded by a 40 ton undoped water hermetic shield. We present a comparison of our results with the expected rate of correlated neutron captures arising from high-energy neutrons incident on the outside of the WATCHBOY shield, predicted by a hybrid FLUKA/GEANT4-based simulation. The incident neutron energy distribution used in the simulation was measured by a fast neutron spectrometer, the 1.8-ton Multiplicity and Recoil Spectrometer (MARS) detector, at the same depth. We nd that the measured detection rate of two correlated neutrons is consistent with that predicted by simulation. The result lends additional confidence in the detection technique used by MARS, and therefore in the MARS spectra as measured at three different depths. Confirmation of the fast neutron flux and spectrum is important as it helps validate the scaling models used to predict the fast neutron fluxes at different overburdens.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Updated neutrino mass constraints from galaxy clustering and CMB lensing-galaxy cross-correlation measurements

In this work, we revisit cosmological constraints on the sum of the neutrino masses Σm v from a combination of full-shape BOSS galaxy clustering [P(k)] data and measurements of the cross-correlation between Planck Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) lensing convergence and BOSS galaxy overdensity maps [$C_{l}^{kg}$], using a simple but theoretically motivated model for the scale-dependent galaxy bias in auto- and cross-correlation measurements. We improve upon earlier related work in several respects, particularly through a more accurate treatment of the correlation and covariance between P(k) and $C_{l}^{kg}$ measurements. When combining these measurements with Planck CMB data, we find a 95% confidence level upper limit of Σm v sum of neutrino masses < 0.14 eV, while slightly weaker limits are obtained when including small-scale ACTPol CMB data, in agreement with our expectations. We confirm earlier findings that (once combined with CMB data) the full-shape information content is comparable to the geometrical information content in the reconstructed BAO peaks given the precision of current galaxy clustering data, discuss the physical significance of our inferred bias and shot noise parameters, and perform a number of robustness tests on our underlying model. While the inclusion of $C_{l}^{kg}$ measurements does not currently appear to lead to substantial improvements in the resulting Σm v of neutrino mass constraints, we expect the converse to be true for near-future galaxy clustering measurements, whose shape information content will eventually supersede the geometrical one.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The radiative lifetime of the 5S(0)2 metastable level of O(2+)

The radiative lifetime of the 5S(0)2 metastable level of O(2+) was measured as 1.22 + or - 0.08 ms at the 90 percent confidence level by observing the time dependence of the spontaneous emission from metastable ions created and stored in a cylindrical radio-frequency ion trap. The intersystem line emission 2s(2)2p(2) 3P - 2s2p(3) 5S(0) was observed at 1660.8 and 1666.2 A. Discrepancies between measured and calculated values indicate that certain calculated transition probabilities for intersystem lines may be less reliable than previously believed.

Johnson, B. C.↗

Predicting the heat release variability of Li-ion cells under thermal runaway with few or no calorimetry data

Accurate measurement of the variability of thermal runaway behavior of lithium-ion cells is critical for designing safe battery systems. However, experimentally determining such variability is challenging, expensive, and time-consuming. Here, we utilize a transfer learning approach to accurately estimate the variability of heat output during thermal runaway using only ejected mass measurements and cell metadata, leveraging 139 calorimetry measurements on commercial lithium-ion cells available from the open-access Battery Failure Databank. We show that the distribution of heat output, including outliers, can be predicted accurately and with high confidence for new cell types using just 0 to 5 calorimetry measurements by leveraging behaviors learned from the Battery Failure Databank. Fractional heat ejection from the positive vent, cell body, and negative vent are also accurately predicted. We demonstrate that by using low cost and fast measurements, we can predict the variability in thermal behaviors of cells, thus accelerating critical safety characterization efforts.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Comparisons of Montane Snow Water Equivalent Projections: Calculating Total Snow Mass in Regions with Projection Agreement and Divergence in the Western United States

Montane snowpack is a vital source of water in the western United States. Here, we use a large-ensemble approach to evaluate the agreement across 124 snow water equivalent (SWE) projections with statistically downscaled forcing between end-of-century (2076–95) and early twenty-first century (2106–35) periods. Comparisons were performed on dates corresponding with the end of winter (15 April) and midspring snowmelt (15 May) in five western U.S. domains. Using 1) the percent change to end-of-century SWE across different ensembles of snow projections and 2) the shift between early twenty-first century and end-of-century SWE distributions for each snow projection, we identified relationships between projections that were consistent across each domain. In low to midelevations, end-of-century SWE decreases were 48% and larger on 15 April. These regions had projected changes to SWE that were both high confidence and in relative agreement across projections. Despite this, the majority of 15 April SWE volume existed in higher elevations where the magnitude and direction (positive or negative) of SWE changes were most uncertain. The results of this study show that large-ensemble approaches can be used to measure coherence between snow projections and identify 1) the highest confidence changes to future snow water resources and 2) the locations and periods where and when improvements to snow projections would most benefit estimates of future snow water resources.

Climate models↗

Constraining the Halo Mass of Damped Lyα Absorption Systems (DLAs) at z = 2–3.5 Using the Quasar-CMB Lensing Cross-correlation

We study the cross-correlation of damped Lyα systems (DLAs) and their background quasars, using the most updated DLA catalog and the Planck 2018 CMB lensing convergence field. Our measurement suggests that the DLA bias b DLA is smaller than 3.1, corresponding to log (M/M ⊙ h -1 ) &LessSlantEqual; 12.3 at a confidence of 90%. These constraints are broadly consistent with Alonso et al. and previous measurements by cross-correlation between DLAs and the Lyα forest (e.g., Font-Ribera et al.; Prez-Rfols et al.). Further, our results demonstrate the potential of obtaining a more precise measurement of the halo mass of the high-redshift sources using next generation CMB experiments with a higher angular resolution. The python-based codes and data products of our analysis are available at https://github.com/LittleLin1999/CMB-lensingxDLA.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Drag measurements on a Junkers wing section : application of the Betz Method to the results of comparative tests made on a model and on an airplane in flight

The comparison of model tests in flight can be based on the result of such measurements. They are very important from the aerodynamical point of view, as they lead to useful conclusions regarding the behavior of the wing, its best shape and the conformity of theoretical and actual flow. Although there still remains a certain prejudice against such measurements, I have still attempted to make these comparative tests in order to inspire confidence in their reliability.

WINGS - JUNKERS A 20↗

In-Time UAV Flight-Trajectory Estimation and Tracking Using Bayesian Filters

Rapid increase of UAV operation in the next decade in areas of on-demand delivery, medical transportation services, law enforcement, traffic surveillance and several others pose potential risks to the low altitude airspace above densely populated areas. Safety assessment of airspace demands the need for a novel UAV traffic management (UTM) framework for regulation and tracking of the vehicles. Particularly for low-altitude UAV operations, quality of GPS measurements feeding into the UAV is often compromised by loss of communication link caused by presence of trees or tall buildings in proximity to the UAV flight path. Inaccurate GPS locations may yield to unreliable monitoring and inaccurate prognosis of remaining battery life and other safety metrics which rely on future expected trajectory of the UAV. This work therefore proposes a generalized monitoring and prediction methodology for autonomous UAVs using in-time GPS measurements. Firstly, a typical 4D smooth trajectory generation technique from a series of waypoint locations with associated expected times-of-arrival based on B-spline curves is presented. Initial uncertainty in the vehicle's expected cruise velocity is quantified to compute confidence intervals along the entire flight trajectory using error interval propagation approach. Further, the generated planned trajectory is considered as the prior knowledge which is updated during its flight with incoming GPS measurements in order to estimate its current location and corresponding kinematic profiles. Estimation of position is denoted in dicrete state-space representation such that position at a future time step is derived from position and velocity at current time step and expected velocity at the future time step. A linear Bayesian filtering algorithm is employed to efficiently refine position estimation from noisy GPS measurements and update the confidence intervals. Further, a dynamic re-planning strategy is implemented to incorporate unexpected detour or delay scenarios. Finally, critical challenges related to uncertainty quantification in trajectory prognosis for autonomous vehicles are identified, and potential solutions are discussed at the end of the paper. The entire monitoring framework is demonstrated on real UAV flight experiments conducted at the NASA Langley Research Center.

Banerjee, Portia↗

Demonstration and Concept of Operations for a Zero-Knowledge Protocol Passive Imaging Measurement for Arms Control

Here, we present an imaging system that employs zero-knowledge protocols to protect sensitive geometrical information, along with procedures to increase confidence in the result. The goal of this work is to enable the inclusion of warhead confirmation measurements in future arms control treaties. We present a demonstration of both true positive and true negative measurements that validate models and establish authenticating procedures toward meeting acceptance requirements for use in nuclear facilities. We use a two-dimensional time-encoded fast neutron imaging system with an anti-symmetric mask pattern; the fast neutron count values exceeding minimum or maximum thresholds indicate that two measured items are not identical. Laboratory measurements over twenty trials show that alarm rates for negative confirmation measurements are within uncertainties of model predictions. Positive confirmation measurements indicate that alarm rates are large enough to encourage treaty compliance.

Sweany, Melinda Dominique [Sandia National Laborat↗

Low-Power, Flexible Sensor Arrays with Solderless Board-to-Board Connectors for Monitoring Soil Deformation and Temperature

Landslides are a global and frequent natural hazard, affecting many communities and infrastructure networks. Technological solutions are needed for long-term, large-scale condition monitoring of infrastructure earthworks or natural slopes. However, current instruments for slope stability monitoring are often costly, require a complex installation process and/or data processing schemes, or have poor resolution. Wireless sensor networks comprising low-power, low-cost sensors have been shown to be a crucial part of landslide early warning systems. Here, we present the development of a novel sensing approach that uses linear arrays of three-axis accelerometers for monitoring changes in sensor inclination, and thus the surrounding soil’s deformation. By combining these deformation measurements with depth-resolved temperature measurements, we can link our data to subsurface thermal–hydrological regimes where relevant. In this research, we present a configuration of cascaded I2C sensors that (i) have ultra-low power consumption and (ii) enable an adjustable probe length. From an electromechanical perspective, we developed a novel board-to-board connection method that enables narrow, semi-flexible sensor arrays and a streamlined assembly process. The low-cost connection method relies on a specific FR4 printed circuit board design that allows board-to-board press fitting without using electromechanical components or solder connections. The sensor assembly is placed in a thin, semi-flexible tube (inner diameter 6.35 mm) that is filled with an epoxy compound. The resulting sensor probe is connected to an AA-battery-powered data logger with wireless connectivity. We characterize the system’s electromechanical properties and investigate the accuracy of deformation measurements. Our experiments, performed with probes up to 1.8 m long, demonstrate long-term connector stability, as well as probe mechanical flexibility. Furthermore, our accuracy analysis indicates that deformation measurements can be performed with a 0.390 mm resolution and a 95% confidence interval of ±0.73 mm per meter of probe length. This research shows the suitability of low-cost accelerometer arrays for distributed soil stability monitoring. In comparison with emerging low-cost measurements of surface displacement, our approach provides depth-resolved deformation, which can inform about shallow sliding surfaces.

deformation monitoring↗

A Measure from Line-of-Sight Magnetograms for Prediction of Coronal Mass Ejections

From a sample of 17 vector magnetograms of 12 bipolar active regions we have recently found (1) that a measure of the overall nonpotentiality (the overall twist and shear in the magnetic field) of an active region is given by the strong shear length Lss, the length of the portion of the main neutral line on which the observed transverse fields is strong (greater than 150 Guass (G)) and strongly sheared (shear angle greater than 45 degrees), and (2) that L(sub ss) is well correlated with the coronal mass ejection (CME) productivity of the active regions during the plus or minus 2-day time window centered on the day of the magnetogram. In the present paper, from the same sample of 17 vector magnetograms, we show that there is a viable proxy for L(sub ss) that can be measured from a line-of-sight magnetogram. This proxy is the strong gradient length L(sub SG), the length of the portion of the main neutral line on which the potential transverse field is strong (greater than 150 G), and the gradient of the line-of-sight field is sufficiently steep (greater than approximately 50 G/Mm). In our sample of active regions, L(sub SG) is statistically significantly correlated with Lss (correlation confidence level greater than 95%), and L(sub SG) is as strongly correlated with active region CME productivity as is L(sub SS) (correlation confidence level approximately 99.7%). Because L(sub SG) can be measured from line-of-sight magnetograms obtained from conventional magnetographs, such as the magnetograph mode of the Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) on board the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory, it is a dependable substitute for L(sub SS) for use in operational CME forecasting. In addition, via measurement of L(sub SG), the years-long, nearly continuous sequence of 1.5-hour cadence full disk line-of-sight magnetograms from MDI can be used to track the growth and decay of the large-scale nonpotentiality in active regions and to examine the role of this evolution in active region CME productivity.

Falconer, D. A.↗

Measurement of helicon waves with phase contrast imaging on DIII-D – A theoretical feasibility study

A DIII-D high-beta H-mode discharge, with I p = 850 kA, B t = 2.1 T n e = 4 10 19 m –3 , has been designed to validate full wave modeling of helicon waves by optimizing the expected response of the Phase Contrast Imaging diagnostic. Helicon waves have been predicted to have high current drive efficiency off-axis without facing the accessibility issues of lower-hybrid waves. To test these predictions experimentally, DIII-D has recently commissioned a high-power helicon antenna. To confidently predict the behavior of helicon waves in future devices, measurements of their fundamental properties and validation against models will be essential. Phase contrast imaging (PCI) is an absolutely calibrated internal reference interferometer able to measure density fluctuations with radial wavenumbers k R between 1.5 cm –1 and 20 cm –1 . For helicon waves 2 cm –1 < k R < 10 cm –1 is expected, allowing PCI to measure their envelope and wavenumber spectrum. This makes PCI a powerful tool for the validation of state-of-the-art models, like the AORSA full wave code. AORSA is used to compute the density perturbations measured by the PCI with 2D calculations corresponding to 11 different toroidal mode numbers combined to resolve the trajectory of the helicon wave in 3D. This is necessary because the waves travel 120 degrees toroidally from the antenna to the PCI. Here, a cold plasma finite element model (CPFEM) [4] is used to predict propagation through the scrape-off layer. The result of the CPFEM model is connected to AORSA by creating an artificial Gaussian antenna on the last closed flux surface. PCI shows best results for waves with small vertical wavenumbers k z . Modeling the helicon waves for several past DIII-D experiments shows that k z is minimized if the intersection of the helicon and the PCI laser beams occurs in the midplane. For such an optimized scenario the predicted signal level is two orders of magnitude larger than the background density fluctuations arising from broadband turbulence.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

A Measure from Line-of-Sight Magnetograms for Prediction of Coronal Mass Ejections

From a sample of 17 vector magnetograms of 12 bipolar active regions, we have recently found (1) that a measure of the overall nonpotentiality (the overall twist and shear in the magnetic field) of an active region is given by the strong-shear length L(sub SS), the length of the portion of the main neutral line on which the observed transverse fields is strong (greater than 150 G) and strongly sheared (shear angle greater than 45 deg), and (2) that L(sub SS) is well correlated with the CME productivity of the active regions during the +/- 2-day time window centered on the day of the magnetogram. In the present paper, from the same sample of 17 vector magnetograms, we show that there is a viable proxy for L(sub SS) that can be measured from a line-of-sight magnetogram. This proxy is the strong-gradient length L(sub SG), the length of the portion of the main neutral line on which the potential transverse field is strong (greater than 150 G) and the gradient of the line-of-sight field is sufficiently steep (greater than or approximately 50 G/Mm). In our sample of active regions, L(sub SG) is statistically significantly correlated with L(sub SS) (correlation confidence level greater than 95%), and L(sub SG) is as strongly correlated with active-region CME productivity as is L(sub SS)(correlation confidence level approximately 99.7%). Because L(sub SG) can be measured from line-of-sight magnetograms obtained from conventional magnetographs, such as the magnetograph mode of the Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) on board the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO), it is a dependable substitute for L(sub SS) for use in operational CME forecasting. In addition, via measurement of L(sub SG), the years-long, nearly continuous sequence of 1.5-hour-cadence full-disk line-of-sight magnetograms from MDI can be used to track the growth and decay of the large-scale nonpotentiality in active regions and to examine the role of this evolution in active-region CME productivity.

Falconer, D. A.↗