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At least 307 records · Page 17

Initial direct strike lightning data

Data waveforms of the rate of change of electric flux density obtained during two lightning strikes to an aircraft specially instrumented for lightning electromagnetic measurements are presented. The aircraft was operating in a thunderstorm environment to elicit strikes. The instrumentation system configuration, flight conditions, and strike scenario showing probable lightning path on the aircraft are described. The waveforms, which were obtained at a 10 nanosecond sample interval, indicate significant excursions of the rate of change of electric flux density occurred over few hundred nanoseconds time interval.

Pitts, F. L.↗

Effect of low Reynolds number turbulence amplification on the Galileo probe flowfield

The amplification of turbulence at low Reynolds numbers is analyzed as it affects the Jupiter-entry flowfield, surface-heating rate, and mass-loss rate of the 335-kg Galileo probe now being designed. The constant k(2) in the Clauser-Klebanoff outer law of the two-layer algebraic eddy-viscosity model of Cebeci (1970), as used in earlier models of the Galileo flowfield (Moss and Simmonds, 1982), is modified to increase at low Reynolds numbers, as found experimentally by Varner and Adams (1980). Calculations were performed for peak heating conditions (at 49.13 sec of entry), using a turbulent Prandtl number of 0.9 and turbulent Lewis numbers (LeT) of 0.8, 1.0, and 1.2. The low-Reynolds-number effect is found to produce mass-loss-ratio increases of from 4 to 50 percent, while an LeT of 1.2 produced an increase of from 4 to 10 percent as compared to an LeT of 1.0. While these findings are based on experimental data obtained under conditions somewhat different from those probably present on Jupiter, their importance for a conservative probe design is stressed.

Gupta, R. N.↗

Spatial estimation from remotely sensed data via empirical Bayes models

Multichannel satellite image data, available as LANDSAT imagery, are recorded as a multivariate time series (four channels, multiple passovers) in two spatial dimensions. The application of parametric empirical Bayes theory to classification of, and estimating the probability of, each crop type at each of a large number of pixels is considered. This theory involves both the probability distribution of imagery data, conditional on crop types, and the prior spatial distribution of crop types. For the latter Markov models indexed by estimable parameters are used. A broad outline of the general theory reveals several questions for further research. Some detailed results are given for the special case of two crop types when only a line transect is analyzed. Finally, the estimation of an underlying continuous process on the lattice is discussed which would be applicable to such quantities as crop yield.

Hill, J. R.↗

The He I 2.06 microns/Br-gamma ratio in starburst galaxies - An objective constraint on the upper mass limit to the initial mass function

The use of the He I 2.06 microns/Br-gamma ratio as a constraint on the massive stellar population in star-forming galaxies is developed. A theoretical relationship between the He I 2.06 microns/Br-gamma ratio and the effective temperature of the exciting star in H II regions is derived. The effects of collisional excitation and dust within the nebula on the ratio are also considered. It is shown that the He I 2.06 microns/Br-gamma ratio is a steep function of the effective temperature, a property which can be used to determine the upper mass limit of the initial mass function (IMF) in galaxies. This technique is reliable for upper mass limits less than about 40 solar masses. New near-infrared spectra of starburst galaxies are presented. The He I 2.06 microns/Br-gamma ratios observed imply a range of upper mass limits from 27 to over 40 solar masses. There is also evidence that the upper mass limit is spatially dependent within a given galaxy. These results suggest that the upper mass limit is not a uniquely defined parameter of the IMF and probably varies with local physical conditions.

Doyon, Rene↗

Crystallization history of the 1984 Mauna Loa lava flow

During a 3-week eruption in 1984, Mauna Loa produced vent lavas that increased in crystallinity from less than 1 to 30%, and 27-km-long flows that increased in crystallinity as they moved downstream. We examined the crystallization history of these lavas using crystal size distribution (CSD) analysis to study the rates of crystallization, viscosity increase, and latent heating. Typical average growth and nucleation rates were 5 x 10(exp -9) cm/s and 5/cu cm/s for microphenocrysts (20- to 500-micron size crystals nucleated in the rift zone) and 5 x 10(exp -8) cm/s and 5 x 10(exp 4)/cu cm/s for microlites (1- to 20-micron size crystals nucleated in the channel). These crystallization rates are high compared with those found in other CSD studies of igneous rocks, probably due to highly nonequilibrium conditions brought on by rapid degassing in the rift zone and cooling in the lava channel. Growth and nucleation rates decreased with time at the vent and with distance downstream. The maximum downstream total crystallinity measured is 39% (25% microlites, 14% microphenocrysts) in a quenched sample 14 km from the vent. Growth and nucleation rates cannot be calculated for postemplacement samples, but they place upper limits of 53-58% on the amount of crystallization in the channel 9-20 km from the vent. Crystallization could have been mostly responsible for the 10(exp 5)-fold downstream increase in apparent viscosity, although degassing and increasing incorporation of solid lava fragments also contributed. Another effect of crystallization on the lava flow was the sizeable latent heating (0.01 J/g/s over the first half of the flow length, if the crystallinity of downstream quench samples is representative of the hot fluid core), which may have been counteracted by entrainment of cooler material. Measurements of crystallization are shown to be crucial in the study of lava flow emplacement dynamics.

Crisp, Joe↗

Survey for Life-related Species During a Planetary Surface Exploration; System Type I - UV Stimulated Fluorescent Sensor

The widely accepted minimum requirements for life on Earth include the presence of water and accessible sources of carbon. We assume that the same criteria must hold for putative life on past or present Mars. The evidence for CO2 and H2O at or near the Martian surface, carbon in Martian meteorites, aqueous alteration, and probable hydrothermal activity suggest that conditions conducive to the origin and evolution of life on Mars may have existed for long periods of time and may still obtain at present. Surface exploration on Mars that enables the direct detection of water in minerals and of organic carbon (including not just organic and biogenic materials but their degradation products such as kerogen-like hydrocarbons and graphitized carbon) that might be products or residues of biologic activity, is crucial. The search for evidence of life, past or present, will nevertheless be difficult. The lack of direct evidence for organic carbon and the low amounts of water found in the soils at the Viking sites demonstrated the difficulties. Recent results of GRS experiment of Odyssey mission indicated the existence of abundant water ice beneath the Mars surface. Mineralogical evidence for the presence of carbonate, sulfates, or clay minerals, products of weathering and aqueous deposition, have not been identified unambiguously on Mars. Rocks such as shales and, more particularly, limestones, which we associate with moist and benign environments on Earth, are evidently not abundant. Presumably, then, neither were the photosynthetic organisms that might have produced them. In addition, the harsh present environment on Mars (e.g., dryness, low temperatures, large temperature cycles, high level of UV light on the surface, frequent dust storms, etc.) can both destroy carbon- and water-bearing materials and hide them. Therefore, directly detecting life-related materials on Mars was likened to seeking and examining proverbial needles in haystacks. We argue that survey type instruments, that can frequently and quickly check a relatively large amount of material at many locations during a mission, are essential.

Wang, Alian↗

Trains of Magnetic Holes and Magnetic Humps in the Heliosheath

This paper discusses the existence of trains (sequences) of magnetic holes and magnetic humps in the heliosheath, based on Voyager 1 observations made in the intervals DOY 312.9707 - 317.0879, 2005 and DOY 185.2762 - 186.7957, 2005. These two trains represent a class of compressive fluctuations in the heliosheath. Varying from one region or time interval to another, this class of fluctuations probably depends on the varying conditions upstream the Termination Shock and its nature. The trains of magnetic holes in the heliosheath resemble certain magnetic field strength fluctuations observed in planetary magnetosheaths.

Burlaga, Leonard↗

Microbiological Contamination of Spacecraft

The International Space Station (ISS) Phase1 Program resulted in seven US astronauts residing aboard the Russian Space Station Mir between March 1995 and May 1998. Collaboration between U.S. and Russian scientists consisted of collection and analyses of samples from the crewmembers and the Mir and Shuttle environments before, during, and after missions that lasted from 75 to 209 days in duration. The effects of long-duration space flight on the microbial characteristics of closed life support systems and the interactions of microbes with the spacecraft environment and crewmembers were investigated. Air samples were collected using a Russian or U.S.-supplied sampler (SAS, RCS, or Burkard,) while surface samples were collected using contact slides (Hycon) or swabs. Mir recycled condensate and stored potable water sources were analyzed using the U.S.-supplied Water Experiment Kit. In-flight analysis consisted of enumeration of levels of bacteria and fungi. Amounts of microorganisms seen in the air and on surfaces were mostly within acceptability lin1its; observed temporal fluctuations in levels of microbes probably reflect changes in environmental conditions (e.g., humidity). All Mir galley hot water samples were within the standards set for Mir and the ISS. Microbial isolates were returned to Earth for identification of bacterial and fungal isolates. Crew samples (nose, throat, skin, urine, and feces) were analyzed using methods approved for the medical evaluations of Shuttle flight crews. No significant changes in crew microbiota were found during space flight or upon return relative to preflight results. Dissemination of microbes between the crew and environment was demonstrated by D A fingerprinting. Some biodegradation of spacecraft materials was observed. Accumulation of condensate allowed for the recovery of a wide range of bacteria and fungi as well as some protozoa and dust mites.

Pierson, D. L.↗

Acceleration Factors for Reliability Assessment of Polymer Tantalum Capacitors

Using polymer tantalum capacitors in Hi-Rel systems requires an assessment of the reliability characteristics of the parts. For this assessment, tantalum capacitors are typically subjected to reliability testing at temperatures and voltages exceeding their specified values, and the failure rate (FR) — or the probability of failure during use conditions — is calculated based on voltage and temperature acceleration factors. In this work, various types and lots of polymer tantalum capacitors have been tested at highly accelerated life test (HALT) conditions and the acceleration factors have been determined using different techniques. It has been shown that the behavior of capacitors under HALT conditions can be described based on the time-dependent dielectric breakdown (TDDB) model, which explains the presence of infant mortality (IM) and wear-out failures using the same failure mechanisms and allows for an assessment of the acceleration factors. The difference in acceleration factors obtained using exponential and power models is discussed. Analysis shows that with proper derating, screening, and qualification testing, the reliability of frameless Hi-Rel COTS polymer tantalum capacitors is adequate for space missions.

Alex Eidelman↗

Acceleration Factors for Reliability Assessment of Polymer Tantalum Capacitors

Using polymer tantalum capacitors in Hi-Rel systems requires an assessment of the reliability characteristics of the parts. For this assessment, tantalum capacitors are typically subjected to reliability testing at temperatures and voltages exceeding their specified values, and the failure rate (FR) — or the probability of failure during use conditions — is calculated based on voltage and temperature acceleration factors. In this work, various types and lots of polymer tantalum capacitors have been tested at highly accelerated life test (HALT) conditions and the acceleration factors have been determined using different techniques. It has been shown that the behavior of capacitors under HALT conditions can be described based on the time-dependent dielectric breakdown (TDDB) model, which explains the presence of infant mortality (IM) and wear-out failures using the same failure mechanisms and allows for an assessment of the acceleration factors. The difference in acceleration factors obtained using exponential and power models is discussed. Analysis shows that with proper derating, screening, and qualification testing, the reliability of frameless Hi-Rel COTS polymer tantalum capacitors is adequate for space missions.

Alex Eidelman↗

ECAR-6332 Rev 3 RELAP5-3D Thermal-Hydraulic Analysis of MARVEL Microreactor - Final Design

This document reports the thermal hydraulic analyses results for the MARVEL microreactor, final design, including dry criticality, normal operation, operational transients and a set of very-low probability transients caused by accident conditions. The ultimate scope of this document is to demonstrate the MARVEL microreactor thermal hydraulic performances and its inherent safety. First, the list of the operational and accidental transients with the corresponding acceptance criteria are recalled. Then, details of the final design, the key input parameters, the assumptions, and the methodology used for performing the deterministic safety analyses are presented. Finally, the analyses results are provided, demonstrating the satisfaction of the corresponding acceptance criteria.

21 - SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLAN↗

Estimated Accuracy of Three Common Trajectory Statistical Methods

Three well-known trajectory statistical methods (TSMs), namely concentration field (CF), concentration weighted trajectory (CWT), and potential source contribution function (PSCF) methods were tested using known sources and artificially generated data sets to determine the ability of TSMs to reproduce spatial distribution of the sources. In the works by other authors, the accuracy of the trajectory statistical methods was estimated for particular species and at specified receptor locations. We have obtained a more general statistical estimation of the accuracy of source reconstruction and have found optimum conditions to reconstruct source distributions of atmospheric trace substances. Only virtual pollutants of the primary type were considered. In real world experiments, TSMs are intended for application to a priori unknown sources. Therefore, the accuracy of TSMs has to be tested with all possible spatial distributions of sources. An ensemble of geographical distributions of virtual sources was generated. Spearman s rank order correlation coefficient between spatial distributions of the known virtual and the reconstructed sources was taken to be a quantitative measure of the accuracy. Statistical estimates of the mean correlation coefficient and a range of the most probable values of correlation coefficients were obtained. All the TSMs that were considered here showed similar close results. The maximum of the ratio of the mean correlation to the width of the correlation interval containing the most probable correlation values determines the optimum conditions for reconstruction. An optimal geographical domain roughly coincides with the area supplying most of the substance to the receptor. The optimal domain s size is dependent on the substance decay time. Under optimum reconstruction conditions, the mean correlation coefficients can reach 0.70 0.75. The boundaries of the interval with the most probable correlation values are 0.6 0.9 for the decay time of 240 h and 0.5 0.95 for the decay time of 12 h. The best results of source reconstruction can be expected for the trace substances with a decay time on the order of several days. Although the methods considered in this paper do not guarantee high accuracy they are computationally simple and fast. Using the TSMs in optimum conditions and taking into account the range of uncertainties, one can obtain a first hint on potential source areas.

Kabashnikov, Vitaliy P.↗

Dynamical interpretation of conditional patterns

While great progress is being made in characterizing the 3-D structure of organized turbulent motions using conditional averaging analysis, there is a lack of theoretical guidance regarding the interpretation and utilization of such information. Questions concerning the significance of the structures, their contributions to various transport properties, and their dynamics cannot be answered without recourse to appropriate dynamical governing equations. One approach which addresses some of these questions uses the conditional fields as initial conditions and calculates their evolution from the Navier-Stokes equations, yielding valuable information about stability, growth, and longevity of the mean structure. To interpret statistical aspects of the structures, a different type of theory which deals with the structures in the context of their contributions to the statistics of the flow is needed. As a first step toward this end, an effort was made to integrate the structural information from the study of organized structures with a suitable statistical theory. This is done by stochastically estimating the two-point conditional averages that appear in the equation for the one-point probability density function, and relating the structures to the conditional stresses. Salient features of the estimates are identified, and the structure of the one-point estimates in channel flow is defined.

Adrian, R. J.↗

A REDUCED ORDER MODELING APPROACH TO PROBABILISTIC CREEP-DAMAGE PREDICTIONS IN FINITE ELEMENT ANALYSIS

This paper introduces a computationally efficient Reduced Order Modeling (ROM) approach for the probabilistic prediction of creep-damage failure. Component-level probabilistic simulations are needed to assess the reliability and safety of high-temperature components. Full-scale probabilistic creep-damage modeling in finite element (FE) approach is computationally expensive requiring many hundreds of simulations to replicate the uncertainty of component failure. To that end, ROM is proposed to minimize the elevated computational cost while controlling the loss of accuracy. It is proposed that full-scale probabilistic simulations can be completed in 1D at a reduced cost, the extremum conditions extracted, and those conditions applied for lower-cost 2D/3D probabilistic simulations of components that capture the mean and uncertainty of failure. The probabilistic Sine-hyperbolic (Sinh) model is selected which in previous work was calibrated to alloy 304 stainless steel. The Sinh model includes probability density functions (pdfs) for test condition (stress and temperature), initial damage (i.e. microstructure), and material properties uncertainty. The Sinh model is programmed into ANSYS finite element software using the USERCREEP.F material subroutine. First, the Sinh model and FE code are subject to verification and validation to ensure the accuracy of the simulations. Numerous Monte Carlo simulations are executed in a 1D model to generate probabilistic creep deformation, damage, and rupture data. This data is analyzed and the probabilistic parameters corresponding to extreme creep response are extracted. The ROM concept is applied where only the extreme conditions are applied in the 2D probabilistic prediction of a component. The probabilistic predictions between the 1D and 2D geometry is compared to assess ROM for creep. The accuracy of the probabilistic prediction employing the ROM approach will potentially reduce the time and cost of simulating complex engineering systems. Future studies will introduce multi-stage Sinh, stochasticity, and spatial uncertainty for improved prediction.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Predicting climate change impacts on poikilotherms using physiologically guided species abundance models

Poikilothermic animals comprise most species on Earth and are especially sensitive to changes in environmental temperatures. Species conservation in a changing climate relies upon predictions of species responses to future conditions, yet predicting species responses to climate change when temperatures exceed the bounds of observed data is fraught with challenges. We present a physiologically guided abundance (PGA) model that combines observations of species abundance and environmental conditions with laboratory-derived data on the physiological response of poikilotherms to temperature to predict species geographical distributions and abundance in response to climate change. The model incorporates uncertainty in laboratory-derived thermal response curves and provides estimates of thermal habitat suitability and extinction probability based on site-specific conditions. We show that temperature-driven changes in distributions, local extinction, and abundance of cold, cool, and warm-adapted species vary substantially when physiological information is incorporated. Notably, cold-adapted species were predicted by the PGA model to be extirpated in 61% of locations that they currently inhabit, while extirpation was never predicted by a correlative niche model. Failure to account for species-specific physiological constraints could lead to unrealistic predictions under a warming climate, including underestimates of local extirpation for cold-adapted species near the edges of their climate niche space and overoptimistic predictions of warm-adapted species.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Feasibility of determining flat roof heat losses using aerial thermography

The utility of aerial thermography for determining rooftop heat losses was investigated experimentally using several completely instrumented test roofs with known thermal resistances. Actual rooftop heat losses were obtained both from in-situ instrumentation and aerial thermography obtained from overflights at an altitude of 305 m. In general, the remotely determined roof surface temperatures agreed very well with those obtained from ground measurements. The roof heat losses calculated using the remotely determined roof temperature agreed to within 17% of those calculated from 1/R delta T using ground measurements. However, this agreement may be fortuitous since the convective component of the heat loss is sensitive to small changes in roof temperature and to the average heat transfer coefficient used, whereas the radiative component is less sensitive. This, at this time, it is felt that an acceptable quantitative determination of roof heat losses using aerial thermography is only feasible when the convective term is accurately known or minimized. The sensitivity of the heat loss determination to environmental conditions was also evaluated. The analysis showed that the most reliable quantitative heat loss determinations can probably be obtained from aerial thermography taken under conditions of total cloud cover with low wind speeds and at low ambient temperatures.

Bowman, R. L.↗

Conservative Analytical Collision Probability for Design of Orbital Formations

The literature offers a number of approximations for analytically and/or efficiently computing the probability of collision between two space objects. However, only one of these techniques is a completely analytical approximation that is suitable for use in the preliminary design phase, when it is more important to quickly analyze a large segment of the trade space than it is to precisely compute collision probabilities. Unfortunately, among the types of formations that one might consider, some combine a range of conditions for which this analytical method is less suitable. This work proposes a simple, conservative approximation that produces reasonable upper bounds on the collision probability in such conditions. Although its estimates are much too conservative under other conditions, such conditions are typically well suited for use of the existing method.

Carpenter, J. Russell↗