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At least 307 records · Page 17

Ensembles of Metastable States Govern Heterogeneous Catalysis on Dynamic Interfaces

Heterogeneous catalysis is at the heart of chemical industry. Being able to tune and design efficient catalysts for processes of interest is of an utmost importance, and for this, the molecular-level understanding of heterogeneous catalysts is the first step, and indeed a prime focus of the modern catalysis research. For a long time, a single most thermodynamically stable structure of the catalytic interface attained in reaction conditions had been envisioned as the reactive phase. However, some catalytic interfaces continue to undergo structural dynamics in the steady state, triggered by high temperatures, pressures, and binding and changing reagents. Among particularly dynamic interfaces are such widely-used catalysts as crystalline and amorphous surfaced supporting (sub-)nano metallic clusters. Recently, it became clear that this dynamic fluxionality causes the supported clusters to populate many distinct structural and stoichiometric states in catalytic conditions. Hence, the catalytic interface should be viewed as an evolving statistical ensemble of many (not one) structures. As such, every member in the ensemble contributes to the properties of the catalyst differently, and in proportion to its probability to be populated. This new notion flips the established paradigm and calls for new theory, modeling approaches, operando measurements, and updated design strategies. The statistical ensemble nature of surface-supported sub-nano cluster catalysts can be exemplified by oxide-supported and adsorbate-covered Pt, Pd, Cu, CuPd clusters, catalytic toward oxidative and non-oxidative dehydrogenation. They have access to a variety of 3D and quasi-2D shapes. The compositions of their thermal ensembles are dependent on the cluster size, leading to size-specific catalytic activities and the famous “every atom counts” phenomenon. The support and adsorbates affect catalyst structures, and state of the reacting species causes the ensemble to change in every reaction intermediate. The most stable member of the ensemble dominates the thermodynamic properties of the corresponding intermediate, whereas the kinetics can be determined by more active but less populated metastable catalyst states, and that suggests that many earlier studies might have overlooked the actual active sites. Both effects depend on the relative time-scales of catalyst restructuring and reaction dynamics. The catalyst may routinely operate off-equilibrium. Ensemble phenomena lead to surprising exceptions from established rules of catalysis, such as scaling relations, and Arrhenius behavior. Catalyst deactivation is also an ensemble property, and its extent of mitigation can be predicted through the new paradigm. These findings were enabled by advances in theory, such as global optimization and subsequent utilization of multiple local minima, and pathways sampling, as well as operando catalyst characterization. The fact that the per-site and per-species resolution is needed for the description and predicting of catalyst properties gives theory the central role in catalysis research, as most experiments provide ensemble-average information and cannot detect the crucial minority species that may be responsible for the catalytic activity.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Nasa Space Flight Instruments: Cost Time Trends

Are NASA’s space flight instruments becoming cheaper or more expensive as time marches forward? After analyzing the costs of hundreds of instruments launched over the last 30 years, the short answer to this question is no… and yes. This paper gives a visual analysis of the cost time trends for various NASA space flight instrument types, such as optical, particles detectors, fields detectors and microwave instruments. In addition to the statistical approaches utilized, such as significance tests, cluster analysis and principle components analysis (PCA), we will also discuss the intangibles which are likely at play, including technological progress, NASA policy and the luck of the draw associated with mission manifests. This analysis was performed as the main driver for the NASA Instrument Cost Model (NICM) recent cost estimating model redesign. Started in 2004, the first version of NICM was based off of instruments launched from 1985-2005, or 20 years’ worth of data. As NICM hit its 10-year anniversary, we wanted to know: should NICM continue to only use the most recent 20 years’ worth of data (1995-2015)? Are instruments becoming cheaper or more expensive as time marches forward? There is evidence in favor of a drop in the median dollar-per-kg value across some instrument types, but little in others. Whereas further research is needed to substantiate, Particles and Optical-Planetary instrument types show moderate to strong evidence of a downward trend in dollar-per-kg. Further research is required to study the nature of this trend (shift, taper, cyclic, etc.). Little evidence for a similar downward trend was detected for Fields or Microwave instruments, or Optical instruments on Earth Orbiting spacecraft. We presented evidence in favor of a drop in the median dollar-per-kg value for Particles and Optical-Planetary instrument types. While similar evidence was weak at best for Fields and Microwave instruments. We can speculate as to the causes for this effect, but we are also equipped to begin to rule out, or at least prioritize, some of the suspected drivers. We observed, for Particles and Optical-Planetary instruments, that perhaps a launch manifest effect was playing part of the role in the observed decrease in dollar-per-kg over the years, noting that the more flagship class missions, which have more money to spend on their instruments, were seen in the earlier years in our data, versus the later years which were dominated by less expensive class missions. However, if this were a dominating driver, would we not have seen the downward trend in the Fields and Microwave instruments as well, which were drawn from that same launch manifest? The fact that we did not observe this helps us rule out the launch manifest effect, and other drivers, such as advances in technology, that seem to be more likely suspects. In that case, however, why would technology advances be helping the Particles and Optical-Planetary instruments only? Why would it not be impacting Optical-Earth Orbiting instruments? Further suspects were looked at as well and ruled out, such as the “Faster, Better, Cheaper”era of NASA development which did not seem to actually impact trends by instrument type on a dollar-perkg scale. VI. Future Work A. Time Series Detailed Statistical Assessment The analysis discussed above sets the foundation for a more rigorous time series analysis of the data. Time series analysis will further explore evidence to-date of time trends for the instrument types which showed the strongest indicators for a decrease in dollar-per-kg: Optical (Planetary) and Particles instruments. More than providing evidence and top-level significance tests, time series analysis would help elucidate what kind of trend that exists in the data, their significance and allow statistically based forecasting (see Figure 10)

Mrozinksi, Joseph↗

Impact of baryonic feedback on HSC-Y1 weak lensing non-Gaussian statistics

Baryonic feedback is a major systematic in weak lensing cosmology. Its most studied effect is the suppression of the lensing power spectrum, a second-order statistic, on small scales. Motivated by the growing interest in statistics beyond the second order, we investigate the effect of baryons on lensing non-Gaussian statistics and the resulting biases in the matter clustering amplitude S 8 = σ 8 Ω m / 0.3 . We focus on the Subaru Hyper Suprime-Cam Year 1 (HSC-Y1) data which, with its high source number density, closely resembles those expected from the upcoming Euclid and Rubin Legacy Survey of Space and Time. We study four non-Gaussian statistics of convergence maps—peak counts, minimum counts, the probability distribution function, and the scattering transform coefficients—in addition to the usual power spectrum. We first estimate the biases in S 8 using mock observations built from the IllustrisTNG and BAHAMAS hydrodynamical simulations and theoretical models built from dark-matter-only simulations. We find up to 1 σ bias in S 8 when the smallest scales (2 arcmin) and the highest feedback level are considered. We then analyze the HSC-Y1 data and compare the S 8 obtained for each statistic with different smoothing scales or scale cuts. As we expect that baryons mostly affect the small scales, comparing the results obtained from including and excluding small scales can indicate the level of impact from baryons. With HSC data, we find only minor ( ≤ 0.5 σ ) differences in S 8 for all statistics, even when considering very small scales (2 arcmin). Our results suggest that the effect of baryons is insignificant at the level of HSC-Y1 down to 2 arcmin for all statistics examined here, or it is canceled by other scale-dependent systematics.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

From Points to Planes: A Workflow for Converting Three‐Dimensional Point Cloud Data Into Discrete Fracture Network Flow and Transport Models

We present the Point cLoud Algorithm for NEtwork Extraction of Discrete Fracture Networks (PLANE-DFN), a point cloud–based algorithm for automatic fracture network extraction designed to support discrete fracture network (DFN) modeling workflows. PLANE-DFN segments three-dimensional fracture planes from raw point cloud data using RANdom SAmple Consensus coupled with statistical outlier removal and density-based clustering to isolate individual fracture features. Each candidate plane is constrained against site-specific structural constraints based on strike and dip. After segmentation, each fracture is converted into a 2-D convex polygon suitable for meshing and simulation. The PLANE-DFN algorithm is validated by comparing geometric and flow and transport data against data from dfnWorks simulations with ensembles of plane-fit networks. We find that the flow and transport in plane-fit networks are comparable to dfnWorks-generated networks when realistic network geometry is maintained. The PLANE-DFN algorithm provides an automated and streamlined workflow to transform point clouds of data into DFN network geometry.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The cluster decomposition of the configurational energy of multicomponent alloys

Abstract The cluster expansion method (CEM) is a widely used lattice-based technique in the study of multicomponent alloys. Despite its prevalent use, a clear understanding of expansion terms is lacking. We present a modern mathematical formalism of the CEM and introduce thecluster decomposition—a unique and basis-independent decomposition for functions of the atomic configuration in a crystal. We identify the cluster decomposition as an invariant ANOVA decomposition; and demonstrate how functional analysis of variance and sensitivity analysis can be used to interpret interactions among species. Furthermore, we show how the mathematical structure of the cluster decomposition enables numerical evaluation that scales with the number of clusters and is independent of the number of species. Overall, our work enables rigorous interpretations of interactions among species, provides opportunities to explore parameter estimation beyond linear regression, introduces a numerical efficient implementation, and enables analysis of cluster expansions based on established mathematical and statistical principles.

Chemistry↗

Examining the changes in the spatial manifestation and the rate of arrival of large tornado outbreaks

This study presents an assessment of the spatial and temporal characteristics of large tornado outbreak (LTOs) days, in which several counties were impacted by tornadoes rated F2(EF2) or greater on the Fujita (Enhanced Fujita) scale in one day. A statistical evaluation of changes in the LTO clusters for two periods, 1950–1980 and 1989–2019, has been performed. There is a geographical shift of the nucleus (central impact location) towards the southeast United States. This spatial shift is also accompanied by reduced spatial variance, suggesting LTOs have become less dispersed (or more localized) in the recent period. The overall inter-arrival rate of LTOs, and how it changed during successive 31-year climatological blocks between 1950–2019 was investigated using an exponential probability model. The arrival rate has changed from 124 days during 1950–1980 to 164 days during 1977–2007 and remained relatively constant during later periods, indicating that LTOs are becoming less frequent.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Erratum: Centrality-Dependent Modification of Jet-Production Rates in Deuteron-Gold Collisions at $\sqrt{𝑠_{𝑁⁢𝑁}}$ = 200 GeV [Phys. Rev. Lett. 116, 122301 (2016)]

We previously reported jet-production rates in 𝑝 + 𝑝 and 𝑑 + Au collisions at $\sqrt{𝑠_{𝑁⁢𝑁}}$ = 200 GeV recorded in 2008 with the PHENIX detector at the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider. Subsequently, we found that electronic noise in the electromagnetic calorimeter was not completely removed by the tower-timing cuts used in the analysis. We have conducted an independent re-analysis of the data that eliminated noisy towers by removing them completely from the analysis. These cuts remove any contributions from instrumental noise, but reduce the overall acceptance for electromagnetic clusters by ≈16% and hence the overall statistical power of the data. Finally, this re-analysis found that instrumental noise in the electromagnetic calorimeter led to an artificial increase in the jet yield for both the 𝑝 + 𝑝 and 𝑑 + Au collisions.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Machine learning analysis of perovskite oxides grown by molecular beam epitaxy

Reflection high-energy electron diffraction (RHEED) is a ubiquitous in situ molecular beam epitaxial (MBE) characterization tool. Although RHEED can be a powerful means for crystal surface structure determination, it is often used as a static qualitative surface characterization method at discrete intervals during a growth. A full analysis of RHEED data collected during the entirety of MBE growths is made possible using principle component analysis (PCA) and $\textit{k}$-means clustering to examine significant boundaries that occur in the temporal clusters grouped from RHEED data and identify statistically significant patterns. This process is applied to data from homoepitaxial SrTiO 3 growths, heteroepitaxial SrTiO 3 grown on scandate substrates, BaSnO 3 films grown on SrTiO 3 substrates, and LaNiO 3 films grown on SrTiO 3 substrates. We report this analysis may provide additional insights into the surface evolution and transitions in growth modes at precise times and depths during growth, and that video archival of an entire RHEED image sequence may be able to provide more insight and control overgrowth processes and film quality.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Statistical Tests for Diagnosing Fission Source Convergence and Undersampling in Monte Carlo Criticality Calculations [Slides]

There is a very strong need for statistical testing to determine fission source convergence in Monte Carlo criticality calculations. Automation of such tests will greatly streamline and support the work carried out by NCS practitioners. Recent R&D work has shown that no single statistical test for convergence is sufficiently reliable, robust, and “guaranteed.” However, a combination of several standard statistical tests for the similarity of distributions, coupled with a high-fidelity estimate of the fission-matrix source is sufficiently robust, reliable, and repeatable that convergence can be “guaranteed.” During the course of the EG-AMCT studies, a number of statistical metrics and tests were proposed for diagnosing clustering and undersampling. None of these was robust and reliable enough for practical use in production codes. However, the expert group efforts came close. Some recent R&D work stemming from those past efforts has been very successful and promising. This Sub-Group will provide international input and collaboration on the development and implementation of statistical tests for convergence, with the primary goal of having the MC codes automatically detect convergence (or lack thereof). Newly proposed statistical tests to detect undersampling (after convergence) will also be reviewed.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Red supergiants and neutrino emission. II.

Investigation of the variation with stellar mass of the ratio of the numbers of blue and red supergiants. Statistical data for supergiants in young open clusters and subgroups of associations are collected to supplement a more restricted list presented earlier. Improved methods are used to identify hydrogen-burning supergiants, as well as faint supergiant remnants of binary mass exchange, and to arrange the bright evolved supergiants in order of their masses. Neither of these two operations requires knowledge of stellar distances or luminosities. Relevant published work on stellar evolution, rotation, mass loss, and duplicity is used to predict upper and lower limits on the blue-to-red ratio. It is concluded that the observed paucity of very massive red supergiants (and of carbon stars) confirms and extends the trend previously observed, and thereby supports the idea of neutrino-induced acceleration of the carbon burning and later phases of evolution; the h and chi Persei association shows the same dependence of the blue-to-red-ratio on stellar mass as do other clusters and associations; and a moderate decrease of the blue-to-red ratio is observed with increasing galactocentric distance in the Galaxy (as in M33) and seems to be due to a relative scarcity of extremely young stars in distant galactic regions.

Stothers, R.↗

Mapping forest vegetation with ERTS-1 MSS data and automatic data processing techniques

This study was undertaken with the intent of elucidating the forest mapping capabilities of ERTS-1 MSS data when analyzed with the aid of LARS' automatic data processing techniques. The site for this investigation was the Great Dismal Swamp, a 210,000 acre wilderness area located on the Middle Atlantic coastal plain. Due to inadequate ground truth information on the distribution of vegetation within the swamp, an unsupervised classification scheme was utilized. Initially pictureprints, resembling low resolution photographs, were generated in each of the four ERTS-1 channels. Data found within rectangular training fields was then clustered into 13 spectral groups and defined statistically. Using a maximum likelihood classification scheme, the unknown data points were subsequently classified into one of the designated training classes. Training field data was classified with a high degree of accuracy (greater than 95 percent), and progress is being made towards identifying the mapped spectral classes.

Messmore, J.↗

Mapping forest vegetation with ERTS-1 MSS data and automatic data processing techniques

This study was undertaken with the intent of elucidating the forest mapping capabilities of ERTS-1 MSS data when analyzed with the aid of LARS' automatic data processing techniques. The site for this investigation was the Great Dismal Swamp, a 210,000 acre wilderness area located on the Middle Atlantic coastal plain. Due to inadequate ground truth information on the distribution of vegetation within the swamp, an unsupervised classification scheme was utilized. Initially pictureprints, resembling low resolution photographs, were generated in each of the four ERTS-1 channels. Data found within rectangular training fields was then clustered into 13 spectral groups and defined statistically. Using a maximum likelihood classification scheme, the unknown data points were subsequently classified into one of the designated training classes. Training field data was classified with a high degree of accuracy (greater than 95%), and progress is being made towards identifying the mapped spectral classes.

Messmore, J.↗

Manual interpretation of LANDSAT data

The task of the analyst throughout LACIE phases 1 and 2 consisted of outlining representative areas (fields) for all spectral classes within a segment on the basis of their appearance on the LANDSAT image products, and then labeling the crop type (wheat/nonwheat) within the selected training areas. For LACIE phase 3, a procedure was developed and implemented which incorporated clustering for spectral class definition and training statistics generation. The only analyst's task was crop type identification. The logical processes involved in interpretation are described, rather than a step-by-step description of analyst procedures.

Hay, C. M.↗

LACIE/ERIPS software system summary

The Earth resources interactive processing system (ERIPS) supports LACIE by classifying LANDSAT sensed data on the basis of the statistical similarity to those portions which were identified by analysts. The development and capabilities of the ERIPS software system are described with emphasis on (1) system requirements; (2) LACIE/ERIPS hardware; (3) system functions; (4) pattern recognition concept; and (5) LACIE/ERIPS data bases. Algorithms used in LACIE/ERIPS for statistics, divergence, feature selection, classification, registration, adaptive clustering, iterative clustering, clustering report functions, Sun angle correction, mean level adjustment, and bias correction are appended.

Johnson, C. L.↗

Remote Sensing techniques used to characterize soil erosion in southwestern Sao Paulo state

Within randomly sampled squares of a 1 km x 1 km grid, rill/gullies frequency, land cover/land use type and shape of the slopes were extracted from aerial photographs of the Ribeirao Anhumas drainage basin. Mean slope gradient, stream frequency and slope length were calculated on topographic maps. Ground truth data on fine sand/coarse sand ratio and vegetation cover densities were obtained. The MSS-LANDSAT-2 data (CCTs) were analyzed using single-cell, cluster synthesis and slicer algorithms. Graphical and statistical analyses of the data indicate that different slope gradients and land cover/land use types are the most significant factors related to the soil erosion process. The digital analysis of MSS data allowed the association among gray level classes and vegetation cover classes, which defined seven classes. These gray level classes and slope gradient classes were used to rank erosion risk.

Parada, N. D. J.↗

Possible Martian brines - Radar observations and models

The 1971 and 1973 Goldstone 12.6-cm radar observations of Mars are separate data sets which include reflectivity as a function of latitude, longitude, and season. It has been argued that secular reflectivity variations of Mars' surface are indicated by the data and that shallow subsurface melting is the causal mechanism most compatible with the observations; however, the melting hypothesis conflicts with accepted notions of the state and distribution of water on Mars. The data are examined to identify temporal and spatial domains within which statistically significant changes in measured reflectivity are clustered. Brines which might satisfy the best supported reflectivity variations are out of equilibrium with the chemical megaenvironment. It is unclear whether such a brine, if emplaced in the Martian regolith at a depth shallow enough to affect the radar reflectivity, could survive even a single freeze-thaw cycle. Some combination of unique scattering properties or some as yet unidentified process other than melting is responsible for any genuine reflectivity variations.

Zent, Aaron P.↗

Orthopyroxenes as recorders of diogenite petrogenesis: Major and minor element systematics

As a part of our research to better understand magmatic processes in the Eucrite Parent Body, we have initiated an ambitious program of study of major, minor and trace elements in orthopyroxene from diogenites. This paper reports preliminary results for major and minor elements in orthopyroxenes for a suite of 13 diogenites: Aioun El Atrouss, ALH 84001, ALH A 77256, EET 87530, Ellemeet, Garland, Ibbenburen, Johnstown, Manegoan, peckelsheim, Roda, Shalka, and Tatahouine. A companion paper by Shearer et al. reports new trace element data for ALH 84001, ALH A 77256, Ibbenburen, and Tatahouine. We have presently collected over 800 high quality pyroxene microprobe analyses for Si, Al, Ca, Na, Mn, Fe, Mg, Cr, and Ti. The chemical systematics observed for these orthopyroxenes reflect original magmatic mineral/melt partitioning plus later trapped liquid/mineral equilibration, subsolids, exsolution, and mineral/mineral metamorphic reactions. We have therefore avoided, at this point, any attempt to use statistical analysis to group (e.g. factor or cluster analysis) these orthopyroxenes chemically.

Papike, J. J.↗