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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

The Future of Energy Efficiency for U.S. Buildings - Drivers and Market Scenarios

This paper identifies likely drivers of building efficiency over the next ten years and expectations for how efficiency markets may evolve over this period. To prepare these predictions, we conducted an extensive literature review, interviewed 22 experts, reviewed legislation and executive orders in 12 states, and implemented a detailed questionnaire completed by 41 efficiency practitioners. The two most important drivers revealed by our research are (1) public policies and regulations, particularly those associated with climate change mitigation and adaptation and (2) the cost of energy relative to the cost of delivering efficiency. Other important drivers are technology changes, economic conditions, social priorities, and industry (including utility) business practices for increasing the uptake of efficiency in buildings. Our research indicates that efficiency markets will increasingly focus on supporting building decarbonization and enabling demand flexibility through the use of controls in grid-interactive efficient buildings and communities. Efficiency improvements for specific technologies (e.g., heat pumps, controls, and windows) and technological advances not specific to energy technologies (e.g., interoperability, artificial intelligence, and universal internet access) will improve the efficacy of efficiency measures and actions. Marketing of efficient products and services will increasingly focus on grid services, decarbonization, non-energy benefits for consumers, and integration with other distributed energy resources (DERs). We anticipate increased investment in disadvantaged and historically underserved communities, recognizing the social, health, and safety benefits of efficient energy usage and remediating historical biases. Lastly, we predict that while state and local government actions will vary, jurisdictions will increase their efficiency goals overall.

Schiller, Steven R↗
DOE OSTI2022

Decarbonizing the Building Sector: A Human-Centered Study Focused on Small/Light Commercial Building Energy Equity

Decarbonization of the building sector is no small feat; buildings account for 40% of primary energy consumption, and fossil-fuel combustion in buildings leads to roughly 30% of total greenhouse gas emissions. Energy efficiency, electrification and smart technologies are fundamental strategies to reduce consumption and shift away from fossil-fuel use in buildings. This energy transition carries significant societal risks unless the shift is carried out with equity and justice as a top priority. Low-income, vulnerable and communities of color have higher energy burdens compared to affluent populations. Furthermore, systemic racism and historic exclusionary policies have resulted in increased risks (environmental, climatic, economic, and social) to low-income and communities of color, and underserved communities often do not have financial resources for, or access to, advanced building technologies. The U.S. Department of Energy is funding research to characterize and develop solutions to the challenges of equity and justice that complicate the ability of communities to contribute to goals for decarbonization. Our project has a specific focus on small commercial buildings and the businesses that occupy them. Significantly less is known about the burdens and risks these businesses experience or the challenges they face in pursuing decarbonization, or how those are affected by income and race, in comparison to research on energy equity and justice for diverse households. The project team includes the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Arizona State University and Clark Atlanta University. Researchers are conducting semi-structured interviews with small business owners in underserved communities in Phoenix and Atlanta, followed by a survey distributed to the larger community to learn more about the equity and justice issues that communities with different racial, economic, and cultural backgrounds face. Results will help inform an actionable and replicable framework for engaging small commercial building owners/operators to catalyze the reduction of energy burdens and increase equity.

Antonopoulos, Chrissi A.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Policy Brief: Integrated Nexus Policies for Sustainable and Resilient Energy, Water, and Food Systems

Population growth, climate change, and resource depletion put food and water security and energy supply at risk. Sustainable and resilient water, food, and energy systems are crucial to meet Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and increase resilience to global health crises such as the COVID-19 pandemic. This policy brief describes the challenges and presents proposals regarding synergies in the land, water, and energy nexus to maximize net environmental, health, and social benefits. First, this brief focuses on water desalination, where the nexus approach helps to balance the full cost, including externalities, of desalinated water, and its socio-economic benefits. Second, this policy brief highlights nutrition-sensitive food policies that improve health and contribute to the preservation of natural resources. Finally, this brief presents challenges and opportunities for developing renewable energy.

energy↗
DOE OSTI2024

Spatially resolved land and grid model of carbon neutrality in China

China has committed to achieve net carbon neutrality by 2060 to combat global climate change, which will require unprecedented deployment of negative emissions technologies, renewable energies (RE), and complementary infrastructure. At terawatt-scale deployment, land use limitations interact with operational and economic features of power systems. To address this, we developed a spatially resolved resource assessment and power systems planning optimization that models a full year of power system operations, sub-provincial RE siting criteria, and transmission connections. Our modeling results show that wind and solar must be expanded to 2,000 to 3,900 GW each, with one plausible pathway leading to 300 GW/yr combined annual additions in 2046 to 2060, a three-fold increase from today. Over 80% of solar and 55% of wind is constructed within 100 km of major load centers when accounting for current policies regarding land use. Large-scale low-carbon systems must balance key trade-offs in land use, RE resource quality, grid integration, and costs. Under more restrictive RE siting policies, at least 740 GW of distributed solar would become economically feasible in regions with high demand, where utility-scale deployment is limited by competition with agricultural land. Effective planning and policy formulation are necessary to achieve China’s climate goals.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Impact of U.S. Re-engagement in Climate on the Paris Targets

The Paris Agreement is meant to bind together international efforts to reduce temperature increase to well-below 2ºC. While so far, ambitions in many signatories of the Paris Agreement have been insufficient to achieve this goal, optimism prevailed in the second half of 2020, with several major emitters enhancing their mitigation targets and a change of leadership in the United States (U.S.). Expectations are high for an active re-engagement in climate action by the Biden Administration, which immediately re-entered the Paris Agreement and announced a net-zero goal for 2050. Apart from the impact that U.S. federal re-engagement could have on national greenhouse gas emissions levels, there are several channels through which U.S. re-engagement in climate action could positively impact ambitions in other countries. This Policy Forum explores the impact of renewed U.S. engagement on national emissions, global emissions and end-of-century temperatures by comparing five combinations of climate ambitions in the U.S. and the rest of the world through an integrated assessment model.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Integrating Earth Observations and Socioeconomic Data to Address Health, Equity, and Environmental Justice

Access to reliable data about the characteristics of populations is a crucial component of decision making, policy development, and the assessment of progress towards strategic goals. Social determinants of health provide insight into the status of social and economic conditions within populations that have profound effects on public health, equity, and vulnerability. International frameworks such as the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) fundamentally focus on equality, but to efficiently address targets and indicators, socioeconomic data and Earth observations must be integrated to help identify populations most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, natural disasters, health disparities, and poor policy planning. The ability to identify vulnerable populations with data analysis has the potential to empower community stakeholders with spatial awareness needed to inform decision-making that addresses equity and environmental justice issues within their communities. The EPA defines environmental justice (EJ) as “the fair treatment and meaningful involvement of all people regardless of race, color, national origin, or income with respect to the development, implementation and enforcement of environmental laws, regulations and policies.” NASA’s Earth Science Division (ESD) recognizes the benefits that Earth observations with NASA satellites create by equipping individuals with the knowledge to address community challenges. NASA’s Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC) supports the integration of socioeconomic and Earth science data as an “informational gateway.” This integration of data is advancing health, equity, and environmental justice initiatives.

Natasha Johnson-Griffin↗
DOE OSTI2026

Form Follows Function (F3): A framework for community-based energy resilience planning in the Midwest

This is the final technical report for the Form Follows Function (F3) grant project led by the City of Duluth, MN. F3 was an innovative two-year initiative that created a replicable, human-centered energy resilience planning process specifically designed for smaller, cold-climate communities in the Midwest. F3 demonstrated both systems-level government planning and community-based research techniques to inform renewable investments and community preparedness strategies.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS2024

Harmonizing Food Systems Emissions Accounting for More Effective Climate Action

Food systems—encompassing activities in food production, land-use change, supply chains and waste management—contribute significantly to climate change. Recent estimates indicate that food systems produce over 30% of annual anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (about 20% of CO 2 , 50% of CH 4 , and 75% of N 2 O), with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimating a notably broad range of 23%–42% of global GHG emissions. This paper synthesizes current research on the contributions of food systems to climate change, highlights challenges in quantifying their impact and proposes a harmonized accounting framework for more effective climate action. We recommend that an expert committee aligned with the IPCC develop guidance for food systems emissions accounting in four key areas, including: (1) defining system boundaries and nomenclature; (2) developing protocols to allocate broader sectoral emissions to food systems; (3) prioritizing critical areas for research into activity data and emissions factors; and (4) developing a balanced framework for evaluating the impact of mitigation interventions in light of other food systems imperatives. The committee should be integrated into two key international policy processes—the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the United Nations Food Systems Summit—to support coordinated action towards global net-zero goals. Guidance from the committee could significantly improve the ability of governments, companies, and researchers to estimate, report, monitor and ultimately reduce the climate impacts of food systems.

GHG accounting↗
NASA NTRS2017

Synergy Between Land Use and Climate Change Increases Future Fire Risk in Amazon Forests

Tropical forests have been a permanent feature of the Amazon basin for at least 55 million years, yet climate change and land use threaten the forest's future over the next century. Understory forest fires, which are common under the current climate in frontier forests, may accelerate Amazon forest losses from climate-driven dieback and deforestation. Far from land use frontiers, scarce fire ignitions and high moisture levels preclude significant burning, yet projected climate and land use changes may increase fire activity in these remote regions. Here, we used a fire model specifically parameterized for Amazon understory fires to examine the interactions between anthropogenic activities and climate under current and projected conditions. In a scenario of low mitigation efforts with substantial land use expansion and climate change – Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 – projected understory fires increase in frequency and duration, burning 4–28 times more forest in 2080–2100 than during 1990–2010. In contrast, active climate mitigation and land use contraction in RCP4.5 constrain the projected increase in fire activity to 0.9–5.4 times contemporary burned area. Importantly, if climate mitigation is not successful, land use contraction alone is very effective under low to moderate climate change, but does little to reduce fire activity under the most severe climate projections. These results underscore the potential for a fire-driven transformation of Amazon forests if recent regional policies for forest conservation are not paired with global efforts to mitigate climate change.

Le Page, Yannick↗
DOE OSTI2020

Wabash CarbonSAFE Subtask 4.1 - Application of Policy Frameworks for Improved Carbon Capture and Storage Social Site Characterization & Stakeholder Engagement

Anthropogenic climate change threatens environmental and human health globally. Limiting these threats requires large-scale and innovative greenhouse gas mitigation responses across carbon-intensive energy and industrial sectors. Carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies present potential opportunities for mitigating climate change while maintaining a diverse energy resource portfolio. Successful development of CCS physical sites requires effective and efficient project management solutions that elicit and incorporate the concerns and perspectives of diverse stakeholders. Due to the urgency of climate change mitigation technology implementation and the costs of CCS development, CCS project developers cannot risk setbacks by poor stakeholder assessment that concern management processes. Thus, this report presents four prominent policy frameworks and associated case studies as opportunities to improve CCS social site characterization and stakeholder engagement. After comparing the relative effectiveness and efficiencies of each framework with regard to CCS, this report concludes that the Advocacy Coalition Framework, Narrative Policy Framework, and Policy Conflict Framework can improve the CCS social site characterization process, while the Collaborative Governance Framework paired with the Q-Methodology provides an ideal framework for direct stakeholder engagement. Overall, this report finds that the Narrative Policy Framework and the Collaborative Governance Framework are most ideally suited for the purposes of CCS social site characterization and stakeholder engagement.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Global Climate Action Partnership

The Global Climate Action Partnership (GCAP; formerly the Low Emission Development Strategies Global Partnership) is a worldwide network that accelerates ambitious climate goals and advances implementation in Africa, Asia, and Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). Our strategic approach emphasizes country-driven implementation actions to achieve resilient, just, and inclusive low-emission and net-zero economies. As an incubator for scalable knowledge and solutions, GCAP is leading the way to equitable, climate-resilient, low-emission development.

African Climate Action Partnership↗
NASA NTRS2015

Introduction The Role of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project

Climate impacts on agriculture are of increasing concern in both the scientific and policy communities because of the need to ensure food security for a growing population. A special challenge is posed by the changes in the frequency and intensity of heat-waves, droughts, and episodic rainstorms already underway in many parts of the world. Changes in production are directly linked to such variations in temperature and precipitation during the growing season, and often to offseason changes in weather affecting soil-water storage and availability to crops. This is not an isolated problem but one of both global and regional importance, because of impacts on the livelihoods of smallholder farmers as well as consequences for the world food trade system. This two-part set the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP): Integrated Crop and Economic Assessments is the first to be entirely devoted to AgMIP (www.agmip.org). AgMIP is a major international research program focused on climate change and agriculture. The goal of the two parts is to advance the field by providing detailed information on new simulation techniques and assessments being conducted by this program. It presents information about new methods of global and regional integrated assessment, results from agricultural regions, and adaptation strategies for maintaining food security under changing climate conditions.

security↗
DOE OSTI2020

Staying cool: The development of India's pioneering energy efficiency policy for chillers

Abstract Chillers are the key energy‐consuming piece of equipment in most large space cooling systems. They can account for more than 40% of total energy consumption in any typical commercial building and in specific industrial building installations depending on the product and process. With climate change driving rapidly rising demand for commercial and industrial cooling, especially in emerging economies, energy efficiency policies for chillers are crucial to moderate future electricity demand and thereby minimize greenhouse gas emissions. However, most developing and emerging economies lack energy efficiency policies for this significant and growing cooling equipment sector. India recently announced new energy efficiency policies for chillers, projected to avoid 28 TWh of electricity consumption and 23 million tons of CO 2 emissions cumulatively through 2030. This article presents a case study of the unique challenges and solutions required to design a new energy efficiency policy for chillers in India. First, the energy consumed in chiller systems is sensitive to building occupancy, load changes, seasonal variations, operation and maintenance, and climatic conditions. In order to address these sensitivities, the chiller testing standard in India factors local weather and temperature conditions into energy performance ratings to account for these sensitivities. Further, every large chiller is a customized product, therefore developing a viable policy and implementation process required collaboration with international and national experts in standardization, manufacturers, building consultants, and testing laboratories. This article is categorized under: Energy Efficiency > Economics and Policy Solar Energy: Thermal ‐‐> Climate and Environment

Mukherjee, P. K.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Projecting Changes in the Frequency and Magnitude of Ozone Pollution Events Under Uncertain Climate Sensitivity

Abstract Climate change is projected to worsen ozone pollution over many populated regions, with larger impacts at higher concentrations. More intense and frequent ozone episodes risk setbacks to human health and environmental policy achievements. However, assessing these changes is complicated by uncertain climate sensitivity, closely related to climate model response, and internal variability in simulations projecting climate's influence on air quality. Here, leveraging a global modeling framework that one‐way couples a human activity model, an Earth system model of intermediate complexity, and an atmospheric chemistry model, we investigate the role of climate sensitivity in climate‐induced changes to high ozone pollution episodes in the United States using multiple greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, representations of climate sensitivity, and initial condition members. We bias correct and evaluate historical model simulations, identifying modeled and observed O 3 episodes using extreme value theory, and extend the approach to projections of mid‐ and end‐century climate impacts. Results show that the influence of climate sensitivity can be as significant as that of greenhouse gas emissions scenario absent precursor emissions changes. Climate change is projected to increase the magnitude of the highest annually occurring O 3 concentrations by over 2.3 ppb on average across the U.S. at mid‐century under a high climate sensitivity and moderate emissions scenario, but the increase is limited to less than 0.3 ppb under lower climate sensitivity. Further, we show that areas in the U.S. currently meeting air quality standards risk being pushed into non‐compliance due to a climate‐induced increase in frequency of high ozone days.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
NASA NTRS2012

Spatially Refined Aerosol Direct Radiative Forcing Efficiencies

Global aerosol direct radiative forcing (DRF) is an important metric for assessing potential climate impacts of future emissions changes. However, the radiative consequences of emissions perturbations are not readily quantified nor well understood at the level of detail necessary to assess realistic policy options. To address this challenge, here we show how adjoint model sensitivities can be used to provide highly spatially resolved estimates of the DRF from emissions of black carbon (BC), primary organic carbon (OC), sulfur dioxide (SO2), and ammonia (NH3), using the example of emissions from each sector and country following multiple Representative Concentration Pathway (RCPs). The radiative forcing efficiencies of many individual emissions are found to differ considerably from regional or sectoral averages for NH3, SO2 from the power sector, and BC from domestic, industrial, transportation and biomass burning sources. Consequently, the amount of emissions controls required to attain a specific DRF varies at intracontinental scales by up to a factor of 4. These results thus demonstrate both a need and means for incorporating spatially refined aerosol DRF into analysis of future emissions scenario and design of air quality and climate change mitigation policies.

Climate↗
DOE OSTI2023

Unfounded concerns about photovoltaic module toxicity and waste are slowing decarbonization

Unsubstantiated claims that fuel growing public concern over the toxicity of photovoltaic modules and their waste are slowing their deployment. Clarifying these issues will help to facilitate the decarbonization that our world depends on. Harnessing the potential of photovoltaic (PV) electricity generation is a key part of the transition to less carbon-intensive energy sources. The most recent energy production forecasts call for a massive 75 TW of global PV capacity by 2050 to have a chance of limiting global temperature rise to 1.5 °C and minimizing the impacts of climate change. This is more than a tenfold increase in the current manufacturing and deployment rate in less than 15 years. PV modules are new to many people, so increasing PV deployment has led to growing concerns about the quantity of waste that may arise from decommissioning them (if they are not recycled), and their potential to leach toxic metals. In conclusion, debunking misinformation about PV modules and PV module waste is the first step in addressing these concerns that are unnecessarily slowing PV deployment.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS2012

Integrating NASA Satellite Data Into USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board Decision Making Environment To Improve Agricultural Estimates

The USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) is responsible for monitoring weather and climate impacts on domestic and foreign crop development. One of WAOB's primary goals is to determine the net cumulative effect of weather and climate anomalies on final crop yields. To this end, a broad array of information is consulted. The resulting agricultural weather assessments are published in the Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin, to keep farmers, policy makers, and commercial agricultural interests informed of weather and climate impacts on agriculture. The goal of the current project is to improve WAOB estimates by integrating NASA satellite precipitation and soil moisture observations into WAOB's decision making environment. Precipitation (Level 3 gridded) is from the TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA). Soil moisture (Level 2 swath and Level 3 gridded) is generated by the Land Parameter Retrieval Model (LPRM) and operationally produced by the NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GBS DISC). A root zone soil moisture (RZSM) product is also generated, via assimilation of the Level 3 LPRM data by a land surface model (part of a related project). Data services to be available for these products include GeoTIFF, GDS (GrADS Data Server), WMS (Web Map Service), WCS (Web Coverage Service), and NASA Giovanni. Project benchmarking is based on retrospective analyses of WAOB analog year comparisons. The latter are between a given year and historical years with similar weather patterns and estimated crop yields. An analog index (AI) was developed to introduce a more rigorous, statistical approach for identifying analog years. Results thus far show that crop yield estimates derived from TMPA precipitation data are closer to measured yields than are estimates derived from surface-based precipitation measurements. Work is continuing to include LPRM surface soil moisture data and model-assimilated RZSM.

Teng, William↗
NASA NTRS2008

Effects of Global Change on U.S. Urban Areas: Vulnerabilities, Impacts, and Adaptation

This slide presentation reviews some of the effects that global change has on urban areas in the United States and how the growth of urban areas will affect the environment. It presents the elements of our Synthesis and Assessment Report (SAP) report that relate to what vulnerabilities and impacts will occur, what adaptation responses may take place, and what possible effects on settlement patterns and characteristics will potentially arise, on human settlements in the U.S. as a result of climate change and climate variability. We will also present some recommendations about what should be done to further research on how climate change and variability will impact human settlements in the U.S., as well as how to engage government officials, policy and decision makers, and the general public in understanding the implications of climate change and variability on the local and regional levels. Additionally, we wish to explore how technology such as remote sensing data coupled with modeling, can be employed as synthesis tools for deriving insight across a spectrum of impacts (e.g. public health, urban planning for mitigation strategies) on how cities can cope and adapt to climate change and variability. This latter point parallels the concepts and ideas presented in the U.S. National Academy of Sciences, Decadal Survey report on "Earth Science Applications from Space: National Imperatives for the Next Decade and Beyond" wherein the analysis of the impacts of climate change and variability, human health, and land use change are listed as key areas for development of future Earth observing remote sensing systems.

Quattrochi, Dale A.↗