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At least 307 records · Page 17

Advancing Satellite-Constrained Modeled Air-Sea CO 2 Fluxes With a Focus on the Strength of the Southern Ocean Carbon Sink

Challenge and Motivation: The ocean plays a critical role in mitigating climate change by removing approximately a quarter of annual anthropogenic CO 2 emissions from the atmosphere. Model-based estimates point to the Southern Ocean as a key marine region, responsible for approximately 40 % of the anthropogenic carbon uptake by the global ocean. However, the contemporary strength of the Southern Ocean carbon sink has recently come into question. On the one hand, airborne-based observations of atmospheric CO 2 gradients indicate that the Southern Ocean represents a strong net sink of atmospheric CO 2 , consistent in magnitude with atmospheric inversion estimates and surface-ocean partial pressure of CO 2 (pCO 2 )-based products. On the other hand, estimates of pCO 2 based on in situ pH measurements taken by biogeochemical profiling floats yield strong wintertime outgassing fluxes that greatly reduce the Southern Ocean’s annually integrated CO 2 uptake. This uncertainty in the strength of the Southern Ocean air-sea CO 2 flux and its role in the global carbon cycle hinders our ability to constrain global carbon fluxes, one of the major goals of NASA’s Carbon Monitoring System (CMS). Opportunity: The NASA Ocean Biogeochemical Model (NOBM) produces near-global pCO 2 and air-sea CO 2 flux estimates that are currently included into the NASA’s Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) models in support of the CMS effort to monitor global carbon fluxes. The NOBM assimilates ocean color data to improve the representation of biogeochemical fluxes and overcome spatial and temporal gaps in the space-based retrievals. Here, we propose to advance the satellite-constrained flux estimates by investigating the uncertainties in the Southern Ocean air-sea CO 2 flux produced by the NOBM, and assess the value that remote sensing ocean color data can have in providing improved estimates of carbon fluxes in the ocean. Our proposed work includes the delivery of refined in situ float-based carbon fluxes to serve as a constraint on the model-based estimates. Taking advantage of the model’s integration of satellite ocean color data to represent multiple phytoplankton groups, we propose to deliver maps of biogenic carbon export specific to each modeled phytoplankton type and investigate the role of ecological plankton complexity in regulating marine carbon uptake and export. Goals: (a) Delivery of seasonally-adjusted float-based Southern Ocean air-sea CO 2 fluxes: We will produce updated and improved float-based air-sea CO 2 fluxes that will serve as a bias-reduced float-based constraint to evaluate our model-based estimates of the NOBM. (b) Investigation of uncertainties in Southern Ocean air-sea CO 2 flux from the NOBM: Modeled air-sea carbon fluxes will be evaluated against the updated float product as well as ship- and airborne-based data to identify uncertainties and potential model deficiencies. (c) Delivery of model-based carbon export partitioning by phytoplankton functional types (PFTs): We will produce depth-resolved maps of particulate organic export production integrated for all phytoplankton groups and allocated to each individual PFT in the model. The expected significance of this goal is to quantify the role that the functional-oriented diversity in phytoplankton groups represented in the NOBM plays in regulating air-sea CO 2 fluxes in the Southern Ocean.

Lionel A. Arteaga↗

Mapping National Forest Aboveground Biomass in Mexico By Integrating GEDI and Landsat Times Series Data

Mexico is one of the countries with great potential for the UN's Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+) program, a key nature-based solution for the forest sector. To monitor carbon stock changes, there is a growing demand for unbiased Monitoring Reporting Verification (MRV) systems to facilitate effective forest management and climate change mitigation strategies. Remote sensing-based national aboveground biomass density (AGBD) estimation over Mexico is scarce and often limited to one-time static mapping, leading to spatiotemporal inconsistency in inputs. As an effort under NASA's Carbon Monitoring System (CMS) program, we have developed a remote sensing-based approach to create consistent historical AGBD maps of Mexico using multi-stream remote sensing data, including spaceborne lidar GEDI and long-term Landsat time series, as well as topographic information. We employ the continuous change detection and classification (CCDC) algorithm for temporal modeling of Landsat surface reflectance, followed by the inference of forest AGBD using a random forest machine learning algorithm with the temporal information of land surface dynamics extracted by the CCDC as input. GEDI provides unprecedented forest structure and AGBD sampling datasets for model training and validation practices. In this presentation, we share the progress made in developing a spatially explicit mapping of historical AGBD changes associated with land surface changes and post-disturbance landscapes.

Taejin Park↗

Applications of Remote Sensing for Land Use Planning Scenarios with Suitability Analysis

In regions undergoing rapid urbanization, such as West Africa, land use planning (LUP) is vital to accommodate growing population and manage natural resources. Suitability analysis modeling is a widely used tool in LUP to determine the extent to which a land area is suitable for a designated purpose, but there is a gap in the integration of remote sensing time series data into land use decisions. The goal of this study was to incorporate remote sensing time series information with suitability analyses to inform LUP decisions in urban areas. In the study area of Kumasi, Ghana, land cover trends and land surface temperature (LST) from 2000 to 2019 were used to understand climate change trends. Suitability analyses determined the fitness of land areas for predetermined uses. These background processes informed a genetic algorithm to project plausible futures for three land use scenarios. One scenario represented current land use planning practices for addressing population growth, another scenario prioritized minimizing climate change impacts while also accommodating population growth, and the final scenario focused on both of these climate and population goals in addition to high density urban development. Each of these scenarios was successful in achieving population accommodation and respective climate change mitigation goals. The results for these scenarios provide insight into plausible land use distributions in 2050 based on different planning approaches. The genetic algorithm was able to effectively develop results for each scenario through the integration of remotely sensed trends and suitability models, providing a novel approach to land use decision-making.

remote sensing time series↗

Assessment of landscape-scale fluxes of carbon dioxide and methane in subtropical coastal wetlands of South Florida

Coastal wetlands play a significant role in the storage of “blue carbon,” indicating their importance in the carbon biogeochemistry in the coastal zone and in global climate change mitigation strategies. We present airborne eddy covariance observations of CO 2 and CH 2 fluxes collected in southern Florida as part of the NASA BlueFlux mission during April 2022, October 2022, February 2023, and April 2023. The flux data generated from this mission consists of over 100 flight hours and more than 6,000 km of horizontal distance over coastal saline and freshwater wetlands. We find that the spatial and temporal heterogeneity in CO 2 and CH 2 exchange is primarily influenced by season, vegetation type, ecosystem productivity, and soil inundation. The largest CO 2 uptake fluxes of more than 20 μmol m -2 s -1 were observed over mangroves during all deployments and over swamp forests during flights in April. The greatest CH 4 effluxes of more than 250 nmol m -2 s -1 were measured at the end of the wet season in October 2022 over freshwater marshes and swamp shrublands. Although the combined Everglades National Park and Big Cypress National Preserve region was a net sink for carbon, CH 4 emissions reduced the ecosystem carbon uptake capacity (net CO 2 exchange rates) by 11%–91%. Average total net carbon exchange rates during the flight periods were −4 to −0.2 g CO 2 -eq m -2 d -1 . Our results highlight the importance of preserving mangrove forests and point to potential avenues of further research for greenhouse gas mitigation strategies.

atmosphere↗

Biomass to Biochar: Maximizing the Carbon Value - Executive Summary

Converting biomass to biochar presents exciting opportunities to mitigate climate change, improve forest and soil health, decrease wildfire risk, bolster ecosystem services, and revitalize rural economies. Our expert panel examined how biomass is harvested, converted to biochar and applied and where operational changes and funding could significantly magnify biochar's contributions. To advance knowledge and efficacies, we found that a rigorous combination of coordinated long-term research, market research and development and enhancement of business support infrastructure that leads to collaborative policy development is essential. We also identified how barriers to five specific biochar technology sectors could be overcome and provide guidelines for effective funding.

agriculture↗

The Future of Energy Efficiency for U.S. Buildings - Drivers and Market Scenarios

This paper identifies likely drivers of building efficiency over the next ten years and expectations for how efficiency markets may evolve over this period. To prepare these predictions, we conducted an extensive literature review, interviewed 22 experts, reviewed legislation and executive orders in 12 states, and implemented a detailed questionnaire completed by 41 efficiency practitioners. The two most important drivers revealed by our research are (1) public policies and regulations, particularly those associated with climate change mitigation and adaptation and (2) the cost of energy relative to the cost of delivering efficiency. Other important drivers are technology changes, economic conditions, social priorities, and industry (including utility) business practices for increasing the uptake of efficiency in buildings. Our research indicates that efficiency markets will increasingly focus on supporting building decarbonization and enabling demand flexibility through the use of controls in grid-interactive efficient buildings and communities. Efficiency improvements for specific technologies (e.g., heat pumps, controls, and windows) and technological advances not specific to energy technologies (e.g., interoperability, artificial intelligence, and universal internet access) will improve the efficacy of efficiency measures and actions. Marketing of efficient products and services will increasingly focus on grid services, decarbonization, non-energy benefits for consumers, and integration with other distributed energy resources (DERs). We anticipate increased investment in disadvantaged and historically underserved communities, recognizing the social, health, and safety benefits of efficient energy usage and remediating historical biases. Lastly, we predict that while state and local government actions will vary, jurisdictions will increase their efficiency goals overall.

Schiller, Steven R↗

Better bang for your buck? Comparing savings realization from ESPCs and direct-funded projects

Energy savings performance contracts (ESPCs) offer an opportunity to tremendously scale decarbonization projects, given their paid-from-savings premise. However, prospective customers still question whether ESPC is worth the effort and expense. This study evaluates the savings realization rates of ESPCs compared to direct-funded projects using ENERGY STAR Portfolio Manager (ESPM) benchmarking data. It compares normalized EUIs from ESPM before and after energy conservation projects implemented via ESPC or direct funding in roughly 450 federal buildings. This documented change, ideally a savings, can then be compared to the estimated savings from the energy conservation initiative in order to generate a rough realization rate. Preliminary results indicate a notably greater savings realization rate for the ESPC buildings (median = 105% of estimated savings) than those that underwent direct-funded projects (median = 46%). Because of a shortage of good quality data and the wide range in results, the difference is only significant at the p < 0.20 level. However, the higher savings realization of ESPCs corroborates the authors’ 2014 findings using a different comparison method. With continued soft government funding and regulatory impediments for climate change mitigation in the U.S., financed, paid-from-savings project models (e.g., ESPC, PACE, EaaS and others) certainly merit more attention. This study’s results are particularly compelling (and encouraging) given the country’s likely reliance on these vehicles to address existing building retrofits.

Earni, Shankar↗

Accelerating Adoption of Energy-Efficient Technology with the Thermalize Model

The accelerating impacts of climate change destabilize food systems and ecosystems alongside the communities that rely on them. Thus, climate resilience is a health equity issue at both a physical (relating to biological impacts of pollution and environmental degradation) and a cultural level (loss of subsistence lifestyles, languages, etc). With roughly 20% of US energy-related greenhouse gas emissions stemming from heating, cooling, and powering households, accessible energy-efficient home retrofits are a critical element of climate change mitigation strategies. For communities already producing electricity from renewable sources, like Juneau, incentivizing ductless heat pump upgrades and energy efficiency retrofits provides an accessible pathway to transition households away from oil heating and drastically reduce emissions. Thermalize Juneau is a pilot program that will explore a repeatable framework for accelerating the adoption of energy-efficient technology in Alaska communities. This poster will describe Thermalize Juneau's goals and framework, progress through spring 2021, and future plans.

ductless heat pumps↗

Practical challenges of model predictive control (MPC) for grid interactive small and medium commercial buildings

To the urgent call for mitigating climate change, substantial initiatives have been undertaken to deploy grid-interactive heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) controls, such as model predictive control (MPC) for buildings. These efforts typically aim to curtail peak energy demand, shift load and enhance overall energy efficiency. With the recent development of low-cost MPC technologies that don’t require extensive instrumentation or manual modeling, small and medium commercial buildings (SMCBs), which rarely utilize advanced HVAC control systems, have become candidates for grid-interactive efficient buildings (GEBs). However, despite the potential benefits and maturity of the technology itself, several practical challenges remain in real-world implementation. In this paper, we share the practical challenges that we have encountered in implementing and testing three types of MPC solutions (ON/OFF unit, dualfuel, and VRF systems) on multiple SMCB sites. We describe the MPC deployment process and discuss the lessons learned. The site selection, eligibility, and retrofit availability (e.g., utility price structure, thermostat communications, etc.) are the main discussion points at the beginning of the project. Also, the modeling automation and the best practices for interacting with endusers and handling erroneous situations are presented for successful operations.

woo Ham, Sang↗

Decarbonizing Hydrogen Production: Assessing A Net-Negative Pathway

Hydrogen is gaining prominence as a key factor in the world's transition to a cleaner energy future. The International Energy Agency (IEA)'s Global Hydrogen Review 2023 reports that the number of low-emission hydrogen production projects is increasing rapidly. The potential for growth in new applications such as heavy industry, transportation, and power generation is significant. The IEA urges more decisive action to spur demand for low-emission hydrogen to achieve climate goals. While hydrogen is produced through various industrial methods, each with its own advantages and disadvantages, low-carbon hydrogen is critical for mitigating climate change and is incentivized by the Clean Hydrogen Production Tax Credit (45V). To this end, we have evaluated a commercial technology that can produce low- or negative-carbon hydrogen via ethanol catalytic oxidative reforming. This study assessed life cycle greenhouse gas emissions (carbon intensity or CI) associated with the hydrogen production technology. A total of 24 scenarios were evaluated, encompassing (a) Gen1 versus Gen2 ethanol inputs, (b) carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) of upstream fermentation CO2, and (c) oxygen sourcing via air separation unit (ASU) versus purchased or on-site production of oxygen as a byproduct of hydrogen electrolysis with a proton exchange membrane (PEM). Key findings include that the base case CI for hydrogen production using Gen2 ethanol from corn stover is lower than Gen1 dry mill corn ethanol. The study also points out that the CI for hydrogen production using PEM-O2 is lower than that using ASU-O2, whether the PEM-O2 is produced on-site or off-site (importing). When sourcing oxygen from on-site PEM-O2, the Gen1 and Gen2 ethanol-derived hydrogen exhibit favorable net-negative CI values for all evaluated scenarios, especially if the upstream ethanol CCS is included. As a reference, the 45V regulatory threshold for generating clean hydrogen tax credits is a CI below 0.45 kg CO2e/kg hydrogen.

BIOMASS FUELS,HYDROGEN↗

Fusion Energy Research at Idaho National Laboratory: Experimentation and Simulation to Support Safety and Rapid Technology Development

Research into fusion energy is growing rapidly, responding to a call for sustainable sources of energy to replace fossil fuels and mitigate climate change. Within the United States, at least, researchers are also responding to the “Bold Decadal Vision” proposed by the White House, seeking to have a commercially relevant fusion pilot plant deployed within a decade. Before this can become a reality, many Fusion Science & Technology (FS&T) gaps remain. For over 45 years, Idaho National Laboratory has been at the forefront of addressing these FS&T gaps in the context of fusion safety and technology via the operation of world-leading experimental facilities within the Safety and Tritium Applied Research (STAR) Facility. Here, INL focuses on the tritium fuel cycle, conceptual system design studies, risk assessment, waste management, and materials safety. Modeling and Simulation (M&S) has also been a component of this portfolio of research, but, early on, focused on individual systems. Since 2019, active development and research on integrated whole device modeling tools based on the Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) framework has been undertaken. This has culminated in a MOOSE-based version of the Tritium Migration and Analysis Program (TMAP), an INL code historically focused on tritium permeation and trapping within fusion systems. More recently, INL Laboratory Directed Research and Development funds have been used to create the Fusion ENergy Integrated multiphys-X (FENIX) code focused on scrape-off layer plasma physics and the first wall of a magnetically confined fusion device. This talk will focus on an overview of INL activities in the FS&T research area, with a particular focus on recent M&S activities and results.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Unveiling the Potential of MeshGraphNets for Predicting Subsurface Evolution in Carbon Storage Projects

This is the conference paper accompanying an oral presentation “Unveiling the Potential of MeshGraphNets for Predicting Subsurface Evolution in Carbon Storage Projects” at the 17th International Conference on Greenhouse Gas Control Technologies GHGT-17 held in Calgary, Canada, October 20-24 , 2024. Carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology is critical for mitigating climate change but requires effective subsurface reservoir management to ensure safe containment of injected CO2. Accurate predictions of reservoir pressure and saturation are essential for assessing long-term CCS performance. Traditional numerical simulations, while effective, are computationally intensive, time-consuming, and constrained by data discretization. Previous work has shown the effectiveness of MeshGraphNets (MGN), a graph-based machine learning framework, as an innovative alternative for predicting reservoir behavior. MGN leverages graph neural networks (GNNs) and mesh representations to model complex geological formations, offering superior adaptability across different discretizations and reservoir configurations. Classic MGN implementations utilize an autoregressive technique to predict future behavior based on current predictions, but this technique is hampered by error accumulation over time. To enhance the model accuracy in time-series predictions, this study implemented a multi-step rollout strategy that integrates autoregressive predictions during training to stabilize prediction of saturation over time. Using the Illinois Basin – Decatur Project (IBDP) dataset, comprising 100 simulations of CO2 injection, pressure, and saturation changes, the framework demonstrated its ability to learn spatial dependencies and temporal dynamics. With inputs including permeabilities, porosities, and injection rates, MGN accurately predicted CO2 plume evolution over time, even with limited training data. Moreover, the addition of a multi-step rollout procedure during training improved the ability of MGN to predict stably over time by ~15%. This research positions MGN, enhanced with multi-step rollout capabilities, as a robust and efficient tool for CCS applications. It advances the field by enabling precise, computationally efficient predictions of reservoir behavior, providing a foundation for the broader adoption of machine learning frameworks in CCS and other geoscience domains.

Holcomb, Paul↗

An Adaptive Dynamic Agrivoltaic Production Tool

In the pursuit of sustainable and land-use-efficient solutions to mitigate climate change, the concept of agrivoltaic systems, which integrate renewable solar energy into conventional agriculture, has emerged. By deploying solar arrays above the crop field, these systems are designed to maximize the land use efficiency or, in other words, the value of generated electricity and crop yield per unit area. While power generation has been extensively studied and modeled, research gaps persist in simulating crop performance [1], [2]. Early studies utilized generalized relationships between photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) and crop production. However, significant variations in crop performance due to other factors, such as weather and soil, can compromise the reliability of the results [2]. Current studies focus on comprehensive process-based crop models, such as DSSAT [3] and STICS [4]. Nevertheless, the validation status varies greatly across different species, and the validation process requires well-designed experiments to adjust specific processes. For less common shade-tolerant crops with limited validation, such as cabbage, physiological behaviors can be difficult to predict [5]. This study investigates an adaptive dynamic agrivoltaic production tool (ADAPT) with few data requirements and minimal on-site calibration that can be easily applied in real applications.

Long, Qirui↗

Experimental Studies on Enhanced Ignition for Improved Pre-Chamber Combustion in Gas Engines

Global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and mitigate climate change have intensified the demand for cleaner and more efficient combustion technologies. Heavyduty engines, which remain essential for transportation and power generation, must operate with significantly lower emissions while maintaining high efficiency and fuel flexibility. Lean combustion and exhaust gas recirculation (EGR) offer promising pathways to reduce emissions and improve thermal efficiency; however, these strategies impose severe challenges for engine operation, especially for low reactivity gaseous fuels like natural gas and ammonia. Pre-chamber combustion has emerged as a viable approach that uses turbulent jets to accelerate main chamber ignition, but its performance can degrade under high dilution or with hard-to-ignite fuels. These limitations motivate the central focus of this dissertation: understanding passive pre-chambers and improving their performance under challenging conditions.

Dhotre, Akash [Univ. of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN↗

Combining Hydrological Modeling and Remote Sensing Observations to Enable Data-Driven Decision Making for Devils Lake Flood Mitigation in a Changing Climate

This slide presentation reviews work to combine the hydrological models and remote sensing observations to monitor Devils Lake in North Dakota, to assist in flood damage mitigation. This reports on the use of a distributed rainfall-runoff model, HEC-HMS, to simulate the hydro-dynamics of the lake watershed, and used NASA's remote sensing data, including the TRMM Multi-Satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) and AIRS surface air temperature, to drive the model.

Zhang, Xiaodong↗

Trade-offs in land-based carbon removal measures under 1.5 °C and 2 °C futures

Land-based carbon removals, specifically afforestation/reforestation and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), vary widely in 1.5 °C and 2 °C scenarios generated by integrated assessment models. Because underlying drivers are difficult to assess, we use a well-known integrated assessment model, GCAM, to demonstrate that land-based carbon removals are sensitive to the strength and scope of land-based mitigation policies. We find that while cumulative afforestation/reforestation and BECCS deployment are inversely related, they are both typically part of cost-effective mitigation pathways, with forestry options deployed earlier. While the CO 2 removal intensity (removal per unit land) of BECCS is typically higher than afforestation/reforestation over long time horizons, the BECCS removal intensity is sensitive to feedstock and technology choices whereas the afforestation/reforestation removal intensity is sensitive to land policy choices. Finally, we find a generally positive relationship between agricultural prices and removal effectiveness of land-based mitigation, suggesting that some trade-offs may be difficult to avoid.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Application of Particle Accelerators to Mitigate Energy and Climate Change Problems Facing America

Reliable CO 2 -free baseload power is needed to address ever-increasing demands for electricity while minimizing adverse climate change. Diversified power supply provided by solar, wind, geothermal, and nuclear reactors can displace the use of fossil fuels. The United States (U.S.) is taking a new look at nuclear power as a source of electrical energy and the nuclear industry is proposing new approaches which may minimize capital costs. However, nuclear power comes with a variety of technical problems. Chief among those is managing the used fuel from nuclear reactors. No long-term, practicable solution to this problem is available. The lack of progress on a comprehensive waste management strategy restricts growth in the nuclear power industry and minimizes the role that nuclear energy may serve as part of a zero-carbon future (Bahr, 2021). According to the Nuclear Waste Policy Act of 1982, as amended, the U.S. Government has possession of the used reactor fuel and incurs large annual storage fees paid to utilities to store and safeguard the accumulated used fuel. In effect, short term on-site storage of nuclear waste is the current waste management plan. The amount of used reactor fuel in the U.S. is approximately 80,000 metric tons. While no geologic repository exists within the U.S., the potential site at Yucca Mountain, NV would accommodate 70,000 metric tons, which fails to meet current and future needs. Given the technical and political challenges associated with establishing a single geological storage site, it is necessary for the U.S. to implement technologies that improve the suitability of geological storage by reducing the volume and radiotoxicity of stored material. No extant technology meets this need. Accelerator driven waste burners have been proposed as a scalable method to process used nuclear fuel, however considerable technical challenges remain which impede commercialization. Innovations in design require investigation of novel materials, development of accurate models and simulations, and a comprehensive assessment of safety and performance. This proposal elaborates how LANL is uniquely positioned to make key contributions to this area of research.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Hidden delays of climate mitigation benefits in the race for electric vehicle deployment

Although battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are climate-friendly alternatives to internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs), an important but often ignored fact is that the climate mitigation benefits of BEVs are usually delayed. The manufacture of BEVs is more carbon-intensive than that of ICEVs, leaving a greenhouse gas (GHG) debt to be paid back in the future use phase. Here we analyze millions of vehicle data from the Chinese market and show that the GHG break-even time (GBET) of China’s BEVs ranges from zero (i.e., the production year) to over 11 years, with an average of 4.5 years. 8% of China’s BEVs produced and sold between 2016 and 2018 cannot pay back their GHG debt within the eight-year battery warranty. We suggest enhancing the share of BEVs reaching the GBET by promoting the effective substitution of BEVs for ICEVs instead of the single-minded pursuit of speeding up the BEV deployment race.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗