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DOE OSTI2021

Data-Driven Exploration of Climate Attractor Manifolds For Long-Term Predictability

Focal Area: This white paper responds to Focal Area 3. We seek to gain insight into decadal-scale climate predictability by applying novel manifold-finding probabilistic AI techniques to the complex data produced by Earth System models (ESMs) such as E3SM. The associated portfolio of research activities leverages DOE’s asset mix of HPC platforms, climate expertise, climate simulation codes, and AI expertise. Science Challenge: Climate and climate models are dynamical systems exhibiting properties that are interpretable through chaos theory. The theory contains an important concept that is relevant to multi-decade-scale climate prediction: a chaotic attractor. While the space containing all the possible states of the Earth’s atmosphere and ocean, the possible weather, is large, the realized states tend to stay near the smaller-dimensioned attractor. This behavior is responsible for the “order behind the irregularity” [1] of climate phenomena. Climate change can be thought of as a change in the properties of the attractor, and predicting the climate over years to decades is equivalent to predicting how those properties will change. To date, the attractor has been a useful conceptual tool, but has not been amenable to direct characterization. A new development is the advent of efficient high-dimensional manifold-finding probabilistic AI techniques, which permit a data-driven characterization of the ESM attractor and its probability distribution over weather states. Such a characterization would result in a natural dimensional reduction — a “non-linear Principal Components Analysis (PCA) adapted to climate simulation data” — leading to important advances in scenario-based long-term climate prediction, long-term prediction of water cycle extremes, ESM verification, inter-model comparison, and process model development.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1996

Regular and Chaotic Quantum Dynamics of Two-Level Atoms in a Selfconsistent Radiation Field

Dynamics of two-level atoms interacting with their own radiation field in a single-mode high-quality resonator is considered. The dynamical system consists of two second-order differential equations, one for the atomic SU(2) dynamical-group parameter and another for the field strength. With the help of the maximal Lyapunov exponent for this set, we numerically investigate transitions from regularity to deterministic quantum chaos in such a simple model. Increasing the collective coupling constant b is identical with 8(pi)N(sub 0)(d(exp 2))/hw, we observed for initially unexcited atoms a usual sharp transition to chaos at b(sub c) approx. equal to 1. If we take the dimensionless individual Rabi frequency a = Omega/2w as a control parameter, then a sequence of order-to-chaos transitions has been observed starting with the critical value a(sub c) approx. equal to 0.25 at the same initial conditions.

Konkov, L. E.↗

NASA NTRS1980

Nonlinear dynamics; Proceedings of the International Conference, New York, NY, December 17-21, 1979

Papers were presented on turbulence, ergodic and integrable behavior, chaotic maps and flows, chemical and fully developed turbulence, and strange attractors. Specific attention was given to measures describing a turbulent flow, stochastization and collapse of vortex systems, a subharmonic route to turbulent convection, and weakly nonlinear turbulence in a rotating convection layer. The Korteweg-de Vries and Hill equations, plasma transport in three dimensions, a horseshoe in the dynamics of a forced beam, and the explosion of strange attractors exhibited by Duffing's equation were also considered.

Helleman, R. H. G.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Topological edge modes without symmetry in quasiperiodically driven spin chains

Here we construct an example of a 1d quasiperiodically driven spin chain whose edge states can coherently store quantum information, protected by a combination of localization, dynamics, and topology. In a sharp departure from topological phases in static and periodically driven (Floquet) spin chains, this model does not rely upon microscopic symmetry protection: Instead, the edge states are protected purely by emergent dynamical symmetries. We explore the dynamical signatures of this emergent dynamical symmetry-protected topological (EDSPT) order through exact numerics, time evolving block decimation, and analytic high-frequency expansion, finding evidence that the EDSPT is a stable dynamical phase protected by bulk many-body localization up to (at least) stretched-exponentially long timescales, and possibly beyond. We argue that EDSPTs are special to the quasiperiodically driven setting, and cannot arise in Floquet systems. Moreover, we find evidence of a type of boundary critical with no known static or Floquet analogue, in which the edge spin dynamics transition from quasiperiodic to chaotic, leading to bulk thermalization.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRS1993

Physics of the magnetotail current sheet

The Earth's magnetotail plays an important role in the solar-wind-magnetosphere coupling. At the midplane of the magnetotail is a current sheet where the dominant magnetic field component reverses sign. The charged particle motion in and near the current sheet is collisionless and nonintegrable, exhibiting chaotic scattering. The current understanding of the dynamical properties of the charged particle motion is discussed. In particular, the relationships between particle dynamics and global attributes of the system are elucidated. Geometrical properties of the phase space determine important physical observables on both micro- and macroscales.

Chen, James↗

NASA NTRS2004

Flow field topology of transient mixing driven by buoyancy

Transient mixing driven by buoyancy occurs through the birth of a symmetric Rayleigh-Taylor morphology (RTM) structure for large length scales. Beyond its critical bifurcation the RTM structure exhibits self-similarity and occurs on smaller and smaller length scales. The dynamics of the RTM structure, its nonlinear growth and internal collision, show that its genesis occurs from an explosive bifurcation which leads to the overlap of resonance regions in phase space. This event shows the coexistence of regular and chaotic regions in phase space which is corroborated with the existence of horseshoe maps. A measure of local chaos given by the topological entropy indicates that as the system evolves there is growth of uncertainty. Breakdown of the dissipative RTM structure occurs during the transition from explosive to catastrophic bifurcation; this event gives rise to annihilation of the separatrices which drives overlap of resonance regions. The global bifurcation of explosive and catastrophic events in phase space for the large length scale of the RTM structure serves as a template for which mixing occurs on smaller and smaller length scales. Copyright 2004 American Institute of Physics.

Nonlinear Dynamics↗

NASA NTRS1999

Variance and Predictability of Precipitation at Seasonal-to-Interannual Timescales

A series of atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) simulations, spanning a total of several thousand years, is used to assess the impact of land-surface and ocean boundary conditions on the seasonal-to-interannual variability and predictability of precipitation in a coupled modeling system. In the first half of the analysis, which focuses on precipitation variance, we show that the contributions of ocean, atmosphere, and land processes to this variance can be characterized, to first order, with a simple linear model. This allows a clean separation of the contributions, from which we find: (1) land and ocean processes have essentially different domains of influence, i.e., the amplification of precipitation variance by land-atmosphere feedback is most important outside of the regions (mainly in the tropics) that are most affected by sea surface temperatures; and (2) the strength of land-atmosphere feedback in a given region is largely controlled by the relative availability of energy and water there. In the second half of the analysis, the potential for seasonal-to-interannual predictability of precipitation is quantified under the assumption that all relevant surface boundary conditions (in the ocean and on land) are known perfectly into the future. We find that the chaotic nature of the atmospheric circulation imposes fundamental limits on predictability in many extratropical regions. Associated with this result is an indication that soil moisture initialization or assimilation in a seasonal-to-interannual forecasting system would be beneficial mainly in transition zones between dry and humid regions.

Koster, Randal D.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Modeling active nematics via the nematic locking principle

Active nematic systems consist of rod-like internally driven subunits that interact with one another to form large-scale coherent flows. They are important examples of far-from-equilibrium fluids, which exhibit a wealth of nonlinear behavior. This includes active turbulence, in which topological defects in the nematic order braid around one another in a chaotic fashion. One of the most studied examples of active nematics consists of a dense two-dimensional layer of microtubules, crosslinked by kinesin molecular motors that inject extensile deformations into the fluid. Though numerous theoretical studies have modeled microtubule-based active nematics, no consensus has emerged on how to fully and quantitatively capture the features of the experimental system. Here, to better understand the theoretical foundations for modeling this system, we propose a fundamental principle we call the nematic locking principle—individual microtubules cannot rotate without all neighboring microtubules also rotating. Physically, this is justified by the high density of the microtubules, their elongated nature, and their corresponding steric interactions. We assert that the nematic locking principle holds throughout the majority of the material, but breaks down in the neighborhood of topological defects and other regions of low density. We derive the most general nematic transport equation consistent with this principle and also derive the most general term that violates it, introducing fracturing into the material. We then examine the standard Beris–Edwards approach, commonly used to model this system, and show that it violates the nematic locking principle throughout the majority of the material due to fracturing. We then propose a modification to the Beris–Edwards model that enforces nematic locking nearly everywhere. This modification shuts off fracturing except in regions where the order parameter (a proxy for density) is reduced. In these regions fracturing is turned on. The resulting simulations in turn show strong nematic locking throughout the bulk of the material, with narrow bands of fracturing, consistent with experimental observation. One additional advantage of enforcing nematic locking is that nontrivial stationary state solutions, common in Beris–Edwards simulations but not seen in experiments, are eliminated.

Mitchell, Kevin A. [Univ. of California, Merced, C↗

DOE OSTI2021

Transition of a network of nonlinear interactions into a regime of strong nonlinear fluctuations: A paradigm for the edge localized mode onset

We study how a network of nonlinear oscillators transits into a regime of strong nonlinear fluctuations when perturbed by a triad. In this regime, most of the potential energy contained in the waves is made available to the system through strong nonlinear fluctuations. This analysis is motivated by recent experimental observations [Dominski and Diallo, Plasma Phys. Control. Fusion 62, 095011 (2020)] where it was found that magnetic fluctuations trigger the onset of edge localized modes by suddenly exciting a network of nonlinear interactions. In our study, we consider the simplest system of many harmonic oscillators that are organized in a network of nonlinear triads. We model and simulate the sudden transition of this network of triads into a regime of strong nonlinear fluctuations—reminiscent of the onset of edge localized modes in tokamaks. This transition is triggered by the activation of a nonlinear perturbation. An abrupt rise of the system's disorder (an entropy-like quantity) is measured during the transition. This transition from weak to strong nonlinear fluctuations is even more abrupt when these fluctuations are chaotic, i.e., when the timescale of the nonlinear interaction is comparable to the timescale of the wave oscillations.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

NASA NTRS2003

A Time Integration Algorithm Based on the State Transition Matrix for Structures with Time Varying and Nonlinear Properties

A variable order method of integrating the structural dynamics equations that is based on the state transition matrix has been developed. The method has been evaluated for linear time variant and nonlinear systems of equations. When the time variation of the system can be modeled exactly by a polynomial it produces nearly exact solutions for a wide range of time step sizes. Solutions of a model nonlinear dynamic response exhibiting chaotic behavior have been computed. Accuracy of the method has been demonstrated by comparison with solutions obtained by established methods.

Bartels, Robert E.↗

NASA NTRS2010

A Machine-Checked Proof of A State-Space Construction Algorithm

This paper presents the correctness proof of Saturation, an algorithm for generating state spaces of concurrent systems, implemented in the SMART tool. Unlike the Breadth First Search exploration algorithm, which is easy to understand and formalise, Saturation is a complex algorithm, employing a mutually-recursive pair of procedures that compute a series of non-trivial, nested local fixed points, corresponding to a chaotic fixed point strategy. A pencil-and-paper proof of Saturation exists, but a machine checked proof had never been attempted. The key element of the proof is the characterisation theorem of saturated nodes in decision diagrams, stating that a saturated node represents a set of states encoding a local fixed-point with respect to firing all events affecting only the node s level and levels below. For our purpose, we have employed the Prototype Verification System (PVS) for formalising the Saturation algorithm, its data structures, and for conducting the proofs.

Catano, Nestor↗

NASA NTRS1994

Advanced data assimilation in strongly nonlinear dynamical systems

Advanced data assimilation methods are applied to simple but highly nonlinear problems. The dynamical systems studied here are the stochastically forced double well and the Lorenz model. In both systems, linear approximation of the dynamics about the critical points near which regime transitions occur is not always sufficient to track their occurrence or nonoccurrence. Straightforward application of the extended Kalman filter yields mixed results. The ability of the extended Kalman filter to track transitions of the double-well system from one stable critical point to the other depends on the frequency and accuracy of the observations relative to the mean-square amplitude of the stochastic forcing. The ability of the filter to track the chaotic trajectories of the Lorenz model is limited to short times, as is the ability of strong-constraint variational methods. Examples are given to illustrate the difficulties involved, and qualitative explanations for these difficulties are provided. Three generalizations of the extended Kalman filter are described. The first is based on inspection of the innovation sequence, that is, the successive differences between observations and forecasts; it works very well for the double-well problem. The second, an extension to fourth-order moments, yields excellent results for the Lorenz model but will be unwieldy when applied to models with high-dimensional state spaces. A third, more practical method--based on an empirical statistical model derived from a Monte Carlo simulation--is formulated, and shown to work very well. Weak-constraint methods can be made to perform satisfactorily in the context of these simple models, but such methods do not seem to generalize easily to practical models of the atmosphere and ocean. In particular, it is shown that the equations derived in the weak variational formulation are difficult to solve conveniently for large systems.

Miller, Robert N.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Enabling All-Access Mobility for Planetary Exploration Vehicles via Transformative Reconfiguration

Effective large-scale exploration of planetary surfaces requires robotic vehicles capable of mobility across chaotic terrain. Characterized by a combination of ridges, cracks and valleys, the demands of this environment can cause spacecraft to experience significant reductions in operating footprint, performance, or even result in total system loss. Significantly increasing the scientific return of an interplanetary mission is facilitated by architectures capable of real-time configuration changes that go beyond that of active suspensions while concurrently meeting system, mass, power, and cost constraints. This Phase 1 report systematically explores how in-service architecture changes can expand system capabilities and mission opportunities. A foundation for concept generation is supplied by four Martian mission profiles spanning chasms, ice fields, craters and rocky terrain. A fifth mission profile centered on Near Earth Object exploration is also introduced. Concept generation is directed using four transformation principles - a taxonomy developed by the engineering design community to explain the cause of an architecture change and existing brainstorming techniques. This allowed early conceptual sketches of architecture changes to be organized by the principle driving the greatest increase in mission performance capability.

Exploration↗

DOE OSTI2022

2.1.3.404 - WEC Array Power Management and Output Simulation Tool

An array of wave energy converter (WEC) devices has variations in power output due to the chaotic nature of the waves. Eliminating or mitigating the power fluctuations is important for reducing the integration impacts of WEC plants in both distribution and transmission grids, and in standalone isolated power systems. Reduced variability of WEC-generated power in combination with energy storage or power management control at each WEC and at the array level will help increasing hosting capacity of distribution feeders for this type of variable renewable generation, and minimization of electric losses. To reduce risks and risk perception, gain key stakeholder acceptance, and enable developers to design effective and compatible energy plants with arrays of WEC devices, it requires the use of modeling tools to simulate the resource environment, device dynamics, utility power system response, as well as the development of an interface for an array controller. The project will create a publicly accessible numerical modeling framework to empower the wave energy sector to design projects of various scales (kW-100s MW), which are optimized on a plant performance basis and are compatible with different power systems and wave conditions. The framework will integrate with WEC-Sim, a wave environment model (SWAN-FUNWAVE), as well as established relevant electrical analysis tools, to model the grid system and interconnection, and optimize power output and power management for the WEC array.

POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION,TIDAL AND WAVE↗

NASA NTRS2004

Harnessing Systems Engineering Methodology in Using Earth Science Research Data for Real Applications

For the last three decades, Earth science remote sensing technologies have been providing an enormous amount of useful data and information serving to broaden our understanding of the home planet as a system. NASA's Earth science program has deployed about 18 complex satellites and is in the process of defining and launching multiple observing systems in this decade. At the same time, the European Community and many other countries such as Russia, France, India, Japan, and China have also significantly contributed to Earth science research. To date, the majority of such efforts have concentrated on expanding our scientific understanding of the multiple nonlinear and chaotic processes of Earth's behavior. In recent years, legislators and stakeholders have put serious pressure on the science community to devote more attention to making use of scientific results for societal benefit. For instance, there are a number of areas such as energy forecasting, aviation safety, agricultural efficiency, disaster management, air quality and public health that can directly take advantage of Earth science results to analyze and predict large scale problems and conditions. This is becoming even more important now that we live in a global economy interconnected via the internet and transportation systems; regional environmental conditions can have far reaching impact across continental boundaries. These factors dictate requirements for global data that can help us assess and control the devastating problems of famine, water resources, wildfires, human health and more. To do this requires a serious, organized, and systematic approach that transfers fundamental research products to the applied sciences domain. This paper presents a systems engineering and management process that can effectively make such transfer of data to the user community. Examples are presented on how the above decision making framework can help in solving critical problems such as the spread of vector borne diseases, forecasts of harmful algal blooms as well as forest fires and wildfires, and the intercontinental transport of dust storms and pollution.

Habib, Shahid↗

DOE OSTI2021

Properties of giant dipole resonances within an extended pairing model with a focus on spectral statistics

In this paper, we report on a study of the spectral features associated with dipole resonances in medium mass nuclei (E ≤ 12 MeV), as revealed in the framework of the spd-interacting boson model. The effect of pairing correlations on the theory follows from solutions obtained through an application of the Bethe Ansatz Equation. In general, calculated spectra around the critical point of the vibrational to γ-soft transitions appears to approach that of a Gaussian Orthogonal Ensemble, while near the rotational and vibrational limits of the theory the spectra show more regular behavior. Specifically, the results reveal that the statistical features of the spectra are sensitive to the vector boson pairing strength, c p , in the transition region; that is, when c p is zero, or when the system approaches one of its dynamical symmetries limits the spectrum display regular features, while for stronger c p values, or when near to the critical phase transition region, the spectral feature show more chaotic behavior. Overall, our results indicate that the statistical features are governed by the interplay between dipole resonant energies, pairing correlations, and interactions between and among the single and vector bosons modes of the theory. As part of this work we also found out that chaoticity occurs when results were fit to a Berry-Robnik distribution. Throughout our analyses, we used experimentally known information about both positive and negative parity states. Our findings suggest that dipole resonances appear to be best-described by Poisson statistics for A ≈ 32-138 nuclei.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1988

Dynamic analysis of nonlinear rotor-housing systems

Nonlinear analysis methods are developed which will enable the reliable prediction of the dynamic behavior of the space shuttle main engine (SSME) turbopumps in the presence of bearing clearances and other local nonlinearities. A computationally efficient convolution method, based on discretized Duhamel and transition matrix integral formulations, is developed for the transient analysis. In the formulation, the coupling forces due to the nonlinearities are treated as external forces acting on the coupled subsystems. Iteration is utilized to determine their magnitudes at each time increment. The method is applied to a nonlinear generic model of the high pressure oxygen turbopump (HPOTP). As compared to the fourth order Runge-Kutta numerical integration methods, the convolution approach proved to be more accurate and more highly efficient. For determining the nonlinear, steady-state periodic responses, an incremental harmonic balance method was also developed. The method was successfully used to determine dominantly harmonic and subharmonic responses fo the HPOTP generic model with bearing clearances. A reduction method similar to the impedance formulation utilized with linear systems is used to reduce the housing-rotor models to their coordinates at the bearing clearances. Recommendations are included for further development of the method, for extending the analysis to aperiodic and chaotic regimes and for conducting critical parameteric studies of the nonlinear response of the current SSME turbopumps.

Noah, Sherif T.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Pattern selection in solidification

Directional solidification of alloys produces a wide variety of cellular or lamellar structures which, depending upon growth conditions, may be reproducibly regular or may behave chaotically. It is not well understood how these patterns are selected and controlled or even whether there ever exist sharp selection mechanisms. A related phenomenon is the spatial propagation of a pattern into a system which has been caused to become unstable against pattern-forming deformations. This phenomenon has some features in common with the propagation of sidebranching modes in dendritic solidification. In a class of one-dimensional models, the nonlinear system can be shown to select the propagating mode in which the leading edge of the pattern is just marginally stable. This stability principle, when applicable, predicts both the speed of propagation and the geometrical characteristics of the pattern which forms behind the moving front. A boundary-layer model for fully two or three dimensional solidification problems appears to exhibit similar mathematical behavior.

Langer, J. S.↗