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At least 307 records · Page 17
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2004

Discrimination And Biophysical Characterization Of Brazilian Cerrado Physiognomies With Eo-1 Hyperspectral Hyperion

The savanna, typically found in the sub-tropics and seasonal tropics, are the dominant vegetation biome type in the southern hemisphere, covering approximately 45% of the South America. In Brazil, the savanna, locally known as "cerrado," is the most intensely stressed biome with both natural environmental pressures (e.g., the strong seasonality in weather, extreme soil nutrient impoverishment, and widespread fire occurrences) and rapid/aggressive land conversions (Skole et al., 1994; Ratter et al., 1997). Better characterization and discrimination of cerrado physiognomies are needed in order to improve understanding of cerrado dynamics and its impact on carbon storage, nutrient dynamics, and the prospect for sustainable land use in the Brazilian cerrado biome. Satellite remote sensing have been known to be a useful tool for land cover and land use mapping (Rougharden et al., 1991; Hansen et al., 2000). However, attempts to discriminate and classify Brazilian cerrado using multi-spectral sensors (e.g., Landsat TM) and/or moderate resolution sensors (e.g., NOAA AVHRR NDVI) have often resulted in a limited success due partly to small contrasts depicted in their multiband, spectral reflectance or vegetation index values among cerrado classes (Seyler et al., 2002; Fran a and Setzer, 1998). In this study, we aimed to improve discrimination as well as biophysical characterization of the Brazilian cerrado physiognomies with hyperspectral remote sensing. We used Hyperion, the first satellite-based hyperspectral imager, onboard the Earth Observing-1 (EO-1) platform.

Miura, Tomoaki↗
DOE OSTI2024

Effects of boundary hydraulics, dissolved oxygen, and dissolved organic carbon on growth and death dynamics of aerobic microbes in riverbed dune-induced hyporheic zones

Surface and groundwater interact in the hyporheic zone beneath and adjacent to rivers in the presence of a diverse microbial community. Heterotrophic bacteria mediate a range of environmentally important reactions, yet few studies have quantified bacterial growth and death dynamics in the hyporheic zone, and none have systematically analyzed their response to variations in hydraulic or chemical conditions. Here we used MODFLOW and SEAM3D to simulate hydraulics; dissolved oxygen (DO) and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) transport; and aerobic microbial metabolism, growth, and death in hyporheic zones induced by riverbed dunes. We ran simulations both with and without growth/death processes, and varied hydraulic parameters and DO/DOC boundary concentrations. Microbial biomass reached steady state (t = 3 days) in every simulation, at which time there was greater biomass and DOC biodegradation rates in the hyporheic flowcell (300% and 85% higher for the base case, respectively) when accounting for microbial growth dynamics. This occurred as microbial biomass tailored its spatial distribution to the availability of DO and DOC, demonstrating the importance of simulating growth/death processes. Biomass generally increased with hyporheic flow cell area as upwelling groundwater decreased. When varying surface water DO and DOC source concentrations relative to the base case, the greatest effect on biomass occurred when increasing DOC and decreasing DO. We determined minimum DO and DOC steady-state concentrations required for microbial growth, but the minimums were not absolute or related by stoichiometry. Increasing DOC created a smaller area of microbes with higher concentrations relative to the base case. Increasing DO slightly increased the area occupied by microbes while keeping the total biomass nearly constant. Overall, microbial growth and death dynamics depend on DO and DOC availability in the hyporheic zone, which is dependent on DOC/DO boundary concentrations and hyporheic flow paths, and in turn the hydraulic interaction between surface water and groundwater.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evidence linking calcium to increased organo-mineral association in soils

Geochemical indicators are emerging as important predictors of soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics, but evidence concerning the role of calcium (Ca) is scarce. This study investigates the role of Ca prevalence in SOC accumulation by comparing otherwise similar sites with (CaCO 3 -bearing) or without carbonates (CaCO 3 -free). We measured the SOC content and indicators of organic matter quality (C stable isotope composition, expressed as δ 13 C values, and thermal stability) in bulk soil samples. We then used sequential sonication and density fractionation (DF) to separate two occluded pools from free and mineral-associated SOC. The SOC content, mass, and δ 13 C values were determined in all the fractions. X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy was used to investigate the surface chemistry of selected fractions. Our hypothesis was that occlusion would be more prevalent at the CaCO 3 -bearing site due to the influence of Ca on aggregation, inhibiting oxidative transformation, and preserving lower δ 13 C values. Bulk SOC content was twice as high in the CaCO 3 -bearing profiles, which also had lower bulk δ 13 C values, and more occluded SOC. Yet, contrary to our hypothesis, occlusion only accounted for a small proportion of total SOC (< 10%). Instead, it was the heavy fraction (HF), containing mineral-associated organic C, which accounted for the majority of total SOC and for the lower bulk δ 13 C values. Overall, an increased Ca prevalence was associated with a near-doubling of mineral-associated SOC content. Future investigations should now aim to isolate Ca-mediated complexation processes that increase organo-mineral association and preserve organic matter with lower δ 13 C values.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Modeling bicarbonate formation in an alkaline solution with multi-level quantum mechanics/molecular dynamics simulations

Understanding carbonate speciation and how it may be modulated is essential for the advancement of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) capture and storage technologies, which often rely on the transformation of CO 2 into carbonate, e.g. via the formation of carbonate minerals. To date, few atomic-level, quantum-mechanics-based simulations have been carried out to characterize how carbonic acid (H 2 CO 3 ) and bicarbonate ($HCO^{-}_{3}$) form in aqueous solution, and how pH affects this process. Recently, Martirez and Carter utilized rare-event sampling density functional theory molecular dynamics simulations in combination with multi-level embedded correlated wavefunction theory, thus accounting for both solvent dynamics and electron correlation accurately, to elucidate the mechanism of H 2 CO 3 formation in neutral solution (J. Am. Chem. Soc., 145, 12561, 2023). Here, we perform a complementary simulation using the same method to map out the energetics of $HCO^{-}_{3}$ formation from dissolved CO 2 in basic solution. We find that, as in H 2 CO 3 formation, including water dynamics is important to obtain an accurate prediction of the energetics for the aforementioned reaction. Furthermore, only with MD did we identify the correct pathway for the reaction, in which water – not hydroxide – acts as the initial nucleophile and only at the transition state does it lose a proton.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Responses of particulate and mineral-associated organic carbon to temperature changes and their mineral protection mechanisms: A soil translocation experiment

Mineral protection mechanisms are important in determining the response of particulate organic carbon (POC) and mineral-associated organic carbon (MAOC) to temperature changes. However, the underlying mechanisms for how POC and MAOC respond to temperature changes are remain unclear. Here, by translocating soils across 1304 m, 1425 m and 2202 m elevation gradient in a temperate forest, simulate nine months of warming (with soil temperature change of +1.41 °C and +3.91 °C) and cooling (with soil temperature change of −1.86 °C and −4.20 °C), we found that warming translocation significantly decreased POC by an average of 10.84 %, but increased MAOC by an average of 4.25 %. Conversely, cooling translocation led to an average increase of 8.64 % in POC and 13.48 % in MAOC. Exchangeable calcium (Ca exe ) had a significant positive correlation with POC and MAOC during temperature changes, and Fe/Al-(hydr)oxides had no significant correlation or a significant negative correlation with POC and MAOC. Our results showed that POC was more sensitive than MAOC to temperature changes. Ca exe mediated the stability of POC and MAOC under temperature changes, and Fe/Al-(hydr)oxides had no obvious protective effect on POC and MAOC. Our results support the role of mineral protection in the stabilization mechanism of POC and MAOC in response to climate change and are critical for understanding the consequences of global change on soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics.

Mineral protection↗
DOE OSTI2020

Emerging investigator series: ion diffusivities in nanoconfined interfacial water films contribute to mineral carbonation thresholds

The dynamics and reactivity of nanoconfined fluids play critical roles across a wide range of environmental and technological systems, though reaction mechanisms and kinetics are not well understood. Here, the carbonation kinetics of forsterite (Mg 2 SiO 4 ) exposed to 90 atm supercritical carbon dioxide at 35–65 °C and 85–100% relative humidity (RH) was monitored with in situ X-ray diffraction, and partner molecular dynamics simulations were used to describe the free energy landscape of Mg 2+ adsorption and diffusion on forsterite surfaces covered in water films 3–10 monolayers thick. The collective findings reveal how decreasing the water film thickness by ~1.4 monolayers, from ~0.92 to ~0.64 nm, inhibited reaction rates by up to 97%, promoted anhydrous Mg-carbonate (magnesite, MgCO 3 ) precipitation, and more than doubled the apparent activation energy of carbonation. The transport simulations suggest that four monolayers are required to enable sufficiently facile Mg 2+ diffusion, helping explain previously observed water film thickness-dependent reactivity thresholds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Photoexcited energy relaxation and vibronic couplings in π-conjugated carbon nanorings

Conjugated carbon nanorings exhibit unique photophysical properties that, combined with their tunable sizes and conformations, make them suitable for a variety of practical applications. These properties are intimately associated to their strained, bent and sterically hindered cyclic structures. Herein we perform a comparative analysis of the photoinduced dynamics in carbon nanorings composed of nine phenyl units([9]CPP) and nine naphthyl units ([9]CN) respectively. The sterically demanding naphthyl units lead to large dihedral angles between neighboring units. Nevertheless, the ultrafast electronic and vibrational energy relaxation and redistribution is found to be similar for both systems. We observe that vibronic couplings, introduced by nonadiabatic energy transfer between electronic excited states, ensure the intramolecular vibrational energy redistribution through specific vibrational modes. The comparative impact of the internal conversion process on the exciton spatial localization and intra-ring migration indicates that naphthyl units in [9]CN achieve more efficient but less dynamical self-trapping compared to that of phenyl units in [9]CPP. That is, during the photoinduced process, the exciton in [9]CN is more static and localized than the exciton in [9]CPP. Furthermore, the internal conversion processes take place through a specific set of middle- to high-frequency normal modes, which directly influence the spatial exciton redistribution during the internal conversion, self-trapping and intra-ring migration.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS2004

The Net Carbon Flux due to Deforestation and Forest Re-Growth in the Brazilian Amazon: Analysis using a Process-Based Model

We developed a process-based model of forest growth, carbon cycling, and land cover dynamics named CARLUC (for CARbon and Land Use Change) to estimate the size of terrestrial carbon pools in terra firme (non-flooded) forests across the Brazilian Legal Amazon and the net flux of carbon resulting from forest disturbance and forest recovery from disturbance. Our goal in building the model was to construct a relatively simple ecosystem model that would respond to soil and climatic heterogeneity that allows us to study of the impact of Amazonian deforestation, selective logging, and accidental fire on the global carbon cycle. This paper focuses on the net flux caused by deforestation and forest re-growth over the period from 1970-1998. We calculate that the net flux to the atmosphere during this period reached a maximum of approx. 0.35 PgC/yr (1PgC = 1 x 10(exp I5) gC) in 1990, with a cumulative release of approx. 7 PgC from 1970- 1998. The net flux is higher than predicted by an earlier study by a total of 1 PgC over the period 1989-1 998 mainly because CARLUC predicts relatively high mature forest carbon storage compared to the datasets used in the earlier study. Incorporating the dynamics of litter and soil carbon pools into the model increases the cumulative net flux by approx. 1 PgC from 1970-1998, while different assumptions about land cover dynamics only caused small changes. The uncertainty of the net flux, calculated with a Monte-Carlo approach, is roughly 35% of the mean value (1 SD).

Hirsch, A. I.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Responses of tundra plant community carbon flux to experimental warming, dominant species removal and elevation

1. Rising temperatures can influence ecosystem processes both directly and indirectly, through effects on plant species and communities. An improved understanding of direct versus indirect effects of warming on ecosystem processes is needed for robust predictions of the impacts of climate change on terrestrial ecosystem carbon (C) dynamics. 2. To explore potential direct and indirect effects of warming on C dynamics in arctic tundra heath, we established a warming (open top chambers) and dominant plant species (Empetrum hermaphroditum Hagerup) removal experiment at a high and low elevation site. We measured the individual and interactive effects of warming, dominant species removal and elevation on plant species cover, the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), leaf area index (LAI), temperature, soil moisture and instantaneous net ecosystem CO 2 exchange. 3. We hypothesized that ecosystems would be stronger CO 2 sinks at the low elevation site, and that warming and species removal would weaken the CO 2 sink because warming should increase ecosystem respiration (ER) and species removal should reduce gross primary productivity (GPP). Furthermore, we hypothesized that warming and species removal would have the greatest impact on processes at the high elevation where site temperature should be most limiting and dominant species may buffer the overall community to environmental stress more compared to the low elevation site where plants are more likely to compete with the dominant species. 4. The instantaneous CO 2 flux, which reflected a weak CO 2 sink, was similar at both elevations. Neither experimental warming nor dominant species removal significantly changed GPP or instantaneous net ecosystem CO 2 exchange even though species removal significantly reduced ER, NDVI and LAI. 5. Our results show that even the loss of dominant plant species may not result in significant landscape-scale responses of net ecosystem CO 2 exchange to warming. They also show that NDVI and LAI may be limited in their ability to predict changes in GPP in these tundra heaths systems. Our study highlights the need for more detailed vegetation analyses and ground-truthed measurements in order to accurately predict direct and indirect impacts of climatic change on ecosystem C dynamics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Quantification of hydraulic trait control on plant hydrodynamics and risk of hydraulic failure within a demographic structured vegetation model in a tropical forest (FATES–HYDRO V1.0)

Abstract. Vegetation plays a key role in the global carbon cycle and thus is an important component within Earth system models (ESMs) that project future climate. Many ESMs are adopting methods to resolve plant size and ecosystem disturbance history, using vegetation demographic models. These models make it feasible to conduct more realistic simulation of processes that control vegetation dynamics. Meanwhile, increasing understanding of the processes governing plant water use, and ecosystem responses to drought in particular, has led to the adoption of dynamic plant water transport (i.e., hydrodynamic) schemes within ESMs. However, the extent to which variations in plant hydraulic traits affect both plant water stress and the risk of mortality in trait-diverse tropical forests is understudied. In this study, we report on a sensitivity analysis of an existing hydrodynamic scheme (HYDRO) model that is updated and incorporated into the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES) (FATES–HYDRO V1.0). The size- and canopy-structured representation within FATES is able to simulate how plant size and hydraulic traits affect vegetation dynamics and carbon–water fluxes. To better understand this new model system, and its functionality in tropical forest systems in particular, we conducted a global parameter sensitivity analysis at Barro Colorado Island, Panama. We assembled 942 observations of plant hydraulic traits on 306 tropical plant species for stomata, leaves, stems, and roots and determined the best-fit statistical distribution for each trait, which was used in model parameter sampling to assess the parametric sensitivity. We showed that, for simulated leaf water potential and loss of hydraulic conductivity across different plant organs, the four most important traits were associated with xylem conduit taper (buffers increasing hydraulic resistance with tree height), stomatal sensitivity to leaf water potential, maximum stem hydraulic conductivity, and the partitioning of total hydraulic resistance above vs. belowground. Our analysis of individual ensemble members revealed that trees at a high risk of hydraulic failure and potential tree mortality generally have a lower conduit taper, lower maximum xylem conductivity, lower stomatal sensitivity to leaf water potential, and lower resistance to xylem embolism for stem and transporting roots. We expect that our results will provide guidance on future modeling studies using plant hydrodynamic models to predict the forest responses to droughts and future field campaigns that aim to better parameterize plant hydrodynamic models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2001

Advances in Land Data Assimilation Systems

Assimilation of remotely sensed land surface observations into regional to global scale numerical models have the potential to significantly advance our ability, to assess, understand, and predict surface water, energy, and carbon cycles. This session seeks to assess the state-of-the-art in data assimilation methods for integrating land surface remote sensing and modeling, with a focus on practical applications and techniques. Assimilated land surface variables of interest include (but are not limited to, soil moisture, surface temperature, snowpack, streamflow, vegetation dynamics, and carbon storage. Contributions describing the development of practical land surface data assimilation methods, multivariate land surface data assimilation strategies, evaluation of the required accuracy and resolution of remote sensing observations, the effects of scale, process complexity, and uncertainty on data assimilation, and the optimal treatment of model and observation errors are encouraged.

Houser, Paul R.↗
NASA NTRS2021

Soil Moisture–Atmosphere Feedbacks Dominate Land Carbon Uptake Variability

Year-to-year changes in carbon uptake by terrestrial ecosystems play an essential role in determining atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. It remains uncertain to what extent temperature and water availability can explain these variations at the global scale. Here we use factorial climate model simulations and show that variability in soil moisture drives 90% of the inter-annual variability in global land carbon uptake, mainly through its impact on photosynthesis. We find that most of this ecosystem response occurs indirectly as soil moisture–atmosphere feedbacks amplify temperature and humidity anomalies, and enhance the direct effects of soil water stress. The strength of this feedback mechanism explains why coupled climate models indicate a dominant role of soil moisture which is not readily apparent in land surface model simulations and observational analyses. These findings highlight the need to account for feedbacks between soil and atmospheric dryness when estimating the carbon cycle’s response to climatic change globally, as well as when conducting field-scale investigations of the ecosystem response to droughts. Our results show that most of the global variability in modelled land carbon uptake is driven by temperature and vapour pressure deficit effects which are controlled by soil moisture.

Atmospheric dynamics↗
DOE OSTI2025

The stable carbon isotope fractionation of methanogenesis products at complete carbon consumption

The stable carbon isotope signature (δ 13 C) of methane (CH 4 ) is used to discriminate between biological, thermogenic, and abiotic sources. Methanogens, or methane producing archaea, inhabit a broad range of chemical conditions. Many of these environments are replete in dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), causing isotopically depleted δ 13 C biogenic CH 4 . However, some extreme environments inhabited by methanogens, such as serpentinising systems, exhibit low carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) availability, replete H 2 , and isotopically enriched δ 13 C CH 4 that is outside the known biogenic range. We measured the δ 13 C of CO 2 , biomass, lipids, and CH 4 during hydrogenotrophic methanogenesis under hydrogen replete conditions with a limited carbon pool to investigate carbon isotope dynamics at complete DIC consumption. As theory predicts, we found that the final, accumulated methane δ 13 C values closely reflect the δ 13 C of the initial DIC supply, and that methane is more 13 C enriched than biomass and lipids. This provides the first experimental evidence that methanogens can achieve complete carbon consumption and thus can produce accumulated CH 4 products that isotopically reflect the initial CO 2 . These data show that the range of possible δ 13 C values from biogenic methane needs to be expanded for natural environments impacted by extreme carbon limitation.

biomass↗
DOE OSTI2023

Amazon windthrow disturbances are likely to increase with storm frequency under global warming

Abstract Forest mortality caused by convective storms (windthrow) is a major disturbance in the Amazon. However, the linkage between windthrows at the surface and convective storms in the atmosphere remains unclear. In addition, the current Earth system models (ESMs) lack mechanistic links between convective wind events and tree mortality. Here we find an empirical relationship that maps convective available potential energy, which is well simulated by ESMs, to the spatial pattern of large windthrow events. This relationship builds connections between strong convective storms and forest dynamics in the Amazon. Based on the relationship, our model projects a 51 ± 20% increase in the area favorable to extreme storms, and a 43 ± 17% increase in windthrow density within the Amazon by the end of this century under the high-emission scenario (SSP 585). These results indicate significant changes in tropical forest composition and carbon cycle dynamics under climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Dynamic regulation of water potential in Juniperus osteosperma mediates ecosystem carbon fluxes

Summary Some plants exhibit dynamic hydraulic regulation, in which the strictness of hydraulic regulation (i.e. iso/anisohydry) changes in response to environmental conditions. However, the environmental controls over iso/anisohydry and the implications of flexible hydraulic regulation for plant productivity remain unknown. InJuniperus osteosperma, a drought‐resistant dryland conifer, we collected a 5‐month growing season time series ofin situ, high temporal‐resolution plant water potential () and stand gross primary productivity (GPP). We quantified the stringency of hydraulic regulation associated with environmental covariates and evaluated how predawn water potential contributes to empirically predicting carbon uptake. Juniperus osteospermashowed less stringent hydraulic regulation (more anisohydric) after monsoon precipitation pulses, when soil moisture and atmospheric demand were high, and corresponded with GPP pulses. Predawn water potential matched the timing of GPP fluxes and improved estimates of GPP more strongly than soil and/or atmospheric moisture, notably resolving GPP underestimation before vegetation green‐up. Flexible hydraulic regulation appears to allowJ. osteospermato prolong soil water extraction and, therefore, the period of high carbon uptake following monsoon precipitation pulses. Water potential and its dynamic regulation may account for why process‐based and empirical models commonly underestimate the magnitude and temporal variability of dryland GPP.

Plant Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2024

Soil Carbon Stocks Not Linked to Aboveground Litter Input and Chemistry of Old-Growth Forest and Adjacent Prairie

The long-standing assumption that aboveground plant litter inputs have a substantial influence on soil organic carbon storage (SOC) and dynamics has been challenged by a new paradigm for SOC formation and persistence. We tested the importance of plant litter chemistry on SOC storage, distribution, composition, and age by comparing two highly contrasting ecosystems: an old-growth coast redwood (Sequoia sempervirens) forest, with highly aromatic litter, and an adjacent coastal prairie, with more easily decomposed litter. We hypothesized that if plant litter chemistry was the primary driver, redwood would store more and older SOC that was less microbially processed than prairie. Total soil carbon stocks to 110 cm depth were higher in prairie (35 kg C m —2 ) than redwood (28 kg C m —2 ). Radiocarbon values indicated shorter SOC residence times in redwood than prairie throughout the profile. Higher amounts of pyrogenic carbon and a higher degree of microbial processing of SOC appear to be instrumental for soil carbon storage and persistence in prairie, while differences in fine-root carbon inputs likely contribute to younger SOC in redwood. We conclude that at these sites fire residues, root inputs, and soil properties influence soil carbon dynamics to a greater degree than the properties of aboveground litter.

13C-NMR spectroscopy↗
DOE OSTI2020

Large Trees Dominate Carbon Storage in Forests East of the Cascade Crest in the United States Pacific Northwest

Large-diameter trees store disproportionally massive amounts of carbon and are a major driver of carbon cycle dynamics in forests worldwide. In the temperate forests of the western United States, proposed changes to Forest Plans would significantly weaken protections for a large portion of trees greater than 53 cm (21 inches) in diameter (herein referred to as “large-diameter trees”) across 11.5 million acres (~4.7 million ha) of National Forest lands. This study is among the first to report how carbon storage in large trees and forest ecosystems would be affected by a proposed policy. We examined the proportion of large-diameter trees on National Forest lands east of the Cascade Mountains crest in Oregon and Washington, their contribution to overall aboveground carbon (AGC) storage, and the potential reduction in carbon stocks resulting from widespread harvest. We analyzed forest inventory data collected on 3,335 plots and found that large trees play a major role in the accumulated carbon stock of these forests. Tree AGC (kg) increases sharply with tree diameter at breast height (DBH; cm) among five dominant tree species. Large trees accounted for 2.0 to 3.7% of all stems (DBH ≥ 1” or 2.54 cm) among five tree species; but held 33 to 46% of the total AGC stored by each species. Pooled across the five dominant species, large trees accounted for 3% of the 636,520 trees occurring on the inventory plots but stored 42% of the total AGC. A recently proposed large-scale vegetation management project that involved widespread harvest of large trees, mostly grand fir, would have removed ~44% of the AGC stored in these large-diameter trees, and released a large amount of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. Given the urgency of keeping additional carbon out of the atmosphere and continuing carbon accumulation from the atmosphere to protect the climate system, it would be prudent to continue protecting ecosystems with large trees for their carbon stores, and also for their co-benefits of habitat for biodiversity, resilience to drought and fire, and microclimate buffering under future climate extremes.

21-inch rule↗
DOE OSTI2021

Assessing the representation of the Australian carbon cycle in global vegetation models

Australia plays an important role in the global terrestrial carbon cycle on inter-annual timescales. While the Australian continent is included in global assessments of the carbon cycle such as the global carbon budget, the performance of dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) over Australia has rarely been evaluated. We assessed simulations of net biome production (NBP) and the carbon stored in vegetation between 1901 to 2018 from 13 DGVMs (TRENDY v8 ensemble). We focused our analysis on Australia's short-term (inter-annual) and long-term (decadal to centennial) terrestrial carbon dynamics. The TRENDY models simulated differing magnitudes of NBP on inter-annual timescales, and these differences resulted in significant differences in long-term vegetation carbon accumulation (–4.7 to 9.5 Pg C). We compared the TRENDY ensemble to several satellite-derived datasets and showed that the spread in the models' simulated carbon storage resulted from varying changes in carbon residence time rather than differences in net carbon uptake. Differences in simulated long-term accumulated NBP between models were mostly due to model responses to land-use change. The DGVMs also simulated different sensitivities to atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) concentration, although notably, the models with nutrient cycles did not simulate the smallest NBP response to CO 2 . Our results suggest that a change in the climate forcing did not have a large impact on the carbon cycle on long timescales. However, the inter-annual variability in precipitation drives the year-to-year variability in NBP. We analysed the impact of key modes of climate variability, including the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), on NBP. While the DGVMs agreed on sign of the response of NBP to El Niño and La Niña and to positive and negative IOD events, the magnitude of inter-annual variability in NBP differed strongly between models. In addition, we find that differences in the timing of simulated phenology and fire dynamics are associated with differences in simulated or prescribed vegetation cover and process representation. We further find model disagreement in simulated vegetation carbon, phenology, and apparent carbon residence time, indicating that the models have different types and coverage of vegetation across Australia (whether prescribed or emergent). Our study highlights the need to evaluate parameter assumptions and the key processes that drive vegetation dynamics, such as phenology, mortality, and fire, in an Australian context to reduce uncertainty across models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗