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At least 307 records · Page 17

Creation of a Mixed-Mode Fracture Network at Mesoscale Through Hydraulic Fracturing and Shear Stimulation

Enhanced Geothermal Systems could provide a substantial contribution to the global energy demand if their implementation could overcome inherent challenges. Examples are insufficient created permeability, early thermal breakthrough, and unacceptable induced seismicity. In this study we report on the seismic response of a mesoscale hydraulic fracturing experiment performed at 1.5-km depth at the Sanford Underground Research Facility. We have measured the seismic activity by utilizing a 100-kHz, continuous seismic monitoring system deployed in six 60-m length monitoring boreholes surrounding the experimental domain in 3-D. The achieved location uncertainty was on the order of 1 m and limited by the signal-to-noise ratio of detected events. These uncertainties were corroborated by detections of fracture intersections at the monitoring boreholes. Three intervals of the dedicated injection borehole were hydraulically stimulated by water injection at pressures up to 33 MPa and flow rates up to 5 L/min. We located 1,933 seismic events during several injection periods. The recorded seismicity delineates a complex fracture network comprised of multistrand hydraulic fractures and shear-reactivated, preexisting planes of weakness that grew unilaterally from the point of initiation. We find that heterogeneity of stress dictates the seismic outcome of hydraulic stimulations, even when relying on theoretically well-behaved hydraulic fractures. Once hydraulic fractures intersected boreholes, the boreholes acted as a pressure relief and fracture propagation ceased. In order to create an efficient subsurface heat exchanger, production boreholes should not be drilled before the end of hydraulic stimulations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Predictive Inverse Model for Advective Heat Transfer in a Short–Circuited Fracture: Dimensional Analysis, Machine Learning, and Field Demonstration

Identifying fluid flow maldistribution in planar geometries is a well–established problem in subsurface science/engineering. Of particular importance to the thermal performance of enhanced (or “engineered”) geothermal systems is identifying the existence of nonuniform (i.e., heterogeneous) permeability and subsequently predicting advective heat transfer. Here, machine learning via a genetic algorithm (GA) identifies the spatial distribution of an unknown permeability field in a two–dimensional Hele–Shaw geometry (i.e., parallel plates). The inverse problem is solved by minimizing the L2 norm between simulated residence time distribution (RTD) and measurements of an inert tracer breakthrough curve (BTC) (C–Dot nanoparticle). Principal component analysis (PCA) of spatially correlated permeability fields enabled reduction of the parameter space by more than a factor of 10 and restricted the inverse search to reservoir–scale permeability variations. Thermal experiments and tracer tests conducted at the mesoscale Altona Field Laboratory (AFL) demonstrate that the method accurately predicts the effects of extreme flow channeling on heat transfer in a single bedding–plane rock fracture. However, this is only true when the permeability distributions provide adequate matches to both tracer RTD and frictional pressure loss. Without good agreement to frictional pressure loss, it is still possible to match a simulated RTD to measurements, but subsequent predictions of heat transfer are grossly inaccurate. Here, the results of this study suggest that it is possible to anticipate the thermal effects of flow maldistribution, but only if both simulated RTDs and frictional pressure loss between fluid inlets and outlets are in good agreement with measurements.

42 ENGINEERING↗

On the Reliability of Parameter Inferences in a Multiscale Model for Transport in Stream Corridors

Nonreacting tracer tests capture information about physical processes in transient storage zones including the hyporheic zone (HZ). However, reliably extracting this information from breakthrough curves (BTCs) and distinguishing the effects of in-channel dispersion and transient storage are well-known challenges. Using BTCs from a nonreacting tracer test monitored at multiple locations, we explore ways for reliable parameter estimations. The identifiability of parameters is greatly influenced by the choice of forward and inverse modeling frameworks in addition to the quality of the data. Our forward model is a recently proposed multiscale model that uses subgrid transport models written in the Lagrangian form to represent transport along a diverse set of HZ pathways with a shape-free distribution of travel times. Joint distributions of HZ and channel parameters are estimated using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo technique. Numerical experiments show ambiguity between channel dispersion and HZ transport when the reach length is too short to allow significant solute-HZ interaction, the observation period is too brief to observe the tailing behavior, or the solute source is spread in time. In contrast, we obtained reliable parameter estimates by simultaneously fitting BTCs observed at different locations in the test reach using a single set of HZ parameters and section-specific channel areas and dispersion coefficients. Furthermore, this study demonstrates the estimation of travel time distributions, HZ exchange rates, and channel parameters in a new multiscale approach and offers guidance for extracting reliable parameter estimates from multiple BTCs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Hyporheic Exchange Due to Cobbles on Sandy Beds

Hyporheic exchange induced by riverbed topography and roughness provides important ecosystem functions. We investigated how cobble clusters embedded in a finer-grained sand bed affect the near-bed channel flow and the exchange of surface and subsurface water. We tested how the spacing and embeddedness of cobbles altered hyporheic exchange through a three-dimensional fully coupled surface-subsurface model. The 3D modeling framework captured the full physics of the exchange process locating the lateral position of upwelling zones on the side of the cobble. As the cobbles protrude more into the channel, eddies appear downstream, with smaller vortices where cobbles are closer together. In our simulations, hyporheic exchange increased with the spacing and protrusion ratio. The travel time in the hyporheic zone also increased with the protrusion ratio because the hyporheic flow paths are longer when the cobble is more protruded. With different spacings at the highest protrusion ratio, the average slope of early time breakthrough curve was steeper for large spacing settings: the travel time increases as the spacing decreases.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Multi‐Layered Systems for Permanent Geologic Storage of CO 2 at the Gigatonne Scale

Abstract The effectiveness of Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) as an imperative decarbonization technology relies on the sealing capacity of a fine‐grained caprock to permanently store CO 2 deep underground. Uncertainties in assessing the caprock sealing capacity increase with the spatial and temporal scales and may delay CCS deployment at the gigatonne scale. We have developed a computationally efficient transport model to capture the dynamics of basin‐wide upward CO 2 migration in a multi‐layered setting over geological time scales. We find that massive capillary breakthrough and viscous flow of CO 2 , even through pervasively fractured caprocks, are unlikely to occur and compromise the storage security. Potential leakage from the injection reservoir is hampered by repetitive layering of overlying caprocks. This finding agrees with geologic intuition and should be understandable by the public, contributing to the development of climate policies around this technology with increased confidence that CO 2 will be indefinitely contained in the subsurface.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Sensitivity Analysis in the Presence of Intrinsic Stochasticity for Discrete Fracture Network Simulations

Abstract Large‐scale discrete fracture network (DFN) simulators are standard fare for studies involving the sub‐surface transport of particles since direct observation of real world underground fracture networks is generally infeasible. While these simulators have successfully been used in several engineering applications, estimates of output quantities of interest (QoI) — such as breakthrough time of particles reaching the edge of the system — suffer from two distinct types of uncertainty. A run of a DFN simulator requires several parameters to be set that dictate the placement and size of fractures, the density of fractures, and the overall permeability of the system; uncertainty on the proper parameters will lead to uncertainty in the QoI, called epistemic uncertainty. Furthermore, since these input settings to DFN simulators control the stochastic processes which place fractures and govern flow, understanding how this randomness affects the QoI requires several runs of the simulator at distinct random seeds. The uncertainty in the QoI attributed to different realizations (i.e., different seeds) of the same random process (i.e., identical input parameters) leads to a second type of uncertainty, called aleatoric uncertainty. In this paper, we perform a Sensitivity Analysis, which directly attributes the uncertainty observed in the QoI to the epistemic uncertainty from each input parameter and to the aleatoric uncertainty. Beyond the specific takeaways on which input variables influence uncertainty in the QoI the most, a major contribution of this paper is the introduction of a statistically rigorous workflow for characterizing the uncertainty in DFN flow simulations that exhibit heteroskedasticity.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Pore‐Scale Modeling of Carbon Dioxide and Hydrogen Transport During Geologic Gas Storage

Abstract Geologic storage of CO 2 and H 2 are climate‐positive techniques for meeting the energy transition. While similar formations could be considered for both gases, the flow dynamics could differ due to differences in their thermophysical properties. We conduct a rigorous pore‐scale study of water/CO 2 and water/H 2 systems at relevant reservoir conditions in a Bentheimer rock sample using the lattice Boltzmann method to quantify the effects of capillary, viscous, inertial, and wetting forces during gas invasion. At similar conditions, H 2 invasion is weaker compared to CO 2 due to unfavorable viscosity ratios. Increasing flow rate, however, increases the breakthrough saturation for both gas systems in the range of capillary numbers studied. At isolated conditions of flow rate, viscosity ratio, and wettability, local inertial effects are found to be critical and show consistent increase in the invaded gas saturation. The effect of inertial forces persits for both gases across all field conditions tested.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

A Practical Probabilistic Benchmark for AI Weather Models

Since the weather is chaotic, it is necessary to forecast an ensemble of future states. Recently, multiple AI weather models have emerged claiming breakthroughs in deterministic skill. Unfortunately, it is hard to fairly compare ensembles of AI forecasts because variations in ensembling methodology become confounding and the baseline data volume is immense. We address this by scoring lagged initial condition ensembles—whereby an ensemble can be constructed from a library of deterministic hindcasts. This allows the first parameter‐free intercomparison of leading AI weather models' probabilistic skill against an operational baseline. Lagged ensembles of the two leading AI weather models, GraphCast and Pangu, perform similarly even though the former outperforms the latter in deterministic scoring. These results are elaborated upon by sensitivity tests showing that commonly used multiple time‐step loss functions damage ensemble calibration.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Effects of Dissolution Regimes on Flow Channelization and Solute Transport in 3D Fracture Networks: Insights From Graph‐Based Reactive Transport Modeling

We investigate how mineral dissolution reshapes flow pathways and solute transport in three‐dimensional discrete fracture networks using a computationally efficient graph‐based reactive transport model. The DFNs are inspired by field‐site observations of fractured carbonate and represent realistic connectivity and structural heterogeneity. Flow is simulated with the Reynolds equation, and dissolution follows first‐order kinetics with diffusive limitations captured through an effective mass‐transfer coefficient. By systematically varying two key dimensionless parameters, the effective Damköhler number (Da), governing reaction versus advection rates, and a transport parameter (Da), analogous to the Thiele modulus, distinct flow channelization regimes emerge: mildly channelized at low G, highly channelized at intermediate Da, and extreme wormhole formation at high Da and low G. Eulerian and Lagrangian analyses, including breakthrough curves, particle tortuosity, dispersivity, and flow channeling indicators quantitatively characterize the progression of dissolution‐driven network restructuring. Across all regimes, initial fracture heterogeneity persists. The results underscore how the interplay between this initial structure, advection, reaction, and diffusion critically shapes subsurface flow pathways, with implications for applications ranging from groundwater remediation to enhanced geothermal systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Subseasonal Forecasting and MJO Teleconnections in Machine Learning Weather Prediction Models

Abstract In recent years, machine‐learning (ML) models trained on reanalysis data have rivaled physics‐based forecast models in terms of performance skill for global weather forecasting. With increased rollout stability, the question of how these models perform for subseasonal to seasonal (S2S, week 3–8) forecasting has emerged. In this study we run a large set of subseasonal hindcasts over 2004–2023 to evaluate two ML weather forecast models at the S2S time scale, SFNO‐HENS (Nvidia, fully ML) and NeuralGCM (Google Research, hybrid). Corresponding hindcasts from the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) are used as a baseline for comparison to a physics‐based model. Because our focus is on predicting moisture transport over the Western United States between October and March, we evaluate the models' prediction skill for the Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) and its associated teleconnections in the North Pacific. We find that both ML models are competitive with the ECWMF model, with comparable skill in predicting the North Pacific large‐scale circulation and the MJO at week 3 and beyond. Even though overall the mid‐latitude subseasonal prediction skill remains low, the ML models exhibit interesting behavior such as a realistic propagation of the MJO across the Maritime Continent and realistic teleconnections. A SFNO‐HENS sensitivity experiment with altered initial conditions in the tropics demonstrates the stability of the model, and it illustrates the capability of ML models to represent important physical processes of the atmosphere at the S2S time scale. Plain Language Summary Predicting weather patterns and precipitation a few weeks in advance (subseasonal time scale) is of great interest for stakeholders such as water managers in the Southwest United States (US), where arid conditions prevail. Subseasonal forecasts from traditional weather forecast models exhibit low skill in the region, limiting their applicability. Here we examine whether the recent breakthrough in weather forecasting made with machine learning/artificial intelligence models can translate to improved subseasonal forecasts. Recently‐developed machine learning models exhibit comparable skill to a state‐of‐the‐art physics‐based model for predicting weather patterns in the North Pacific/North America region, and associated moisture transport. The same applies to their skill in predicting the tropical pattern, the Madden‐Julian Oscillation, and its important remote perturbations over the midlatitude East Pacific and Southwest US. Additionally, a perturbation experiment carried out with one of the machine learning models illustrates their ability to not only predict the evolution of atmospheric fields, but also to learn and represent physical processes such as tropics‐extratropics Rossby wave propagation. Key Points Two machine learning weather forecast models exhibit state‐of‐the‐art prediction skill at the subseasonal time scale in the Pacific sector The models equal ECWMF in terms of Madden‐Julian oscillation (MJO) prediction skill, and they accurately predict the MJO propagation and associated teleconnections The two machine‐learning models represent key physical processes for subseasonal prediction, despite being trained for weather forecasting

Peings, Yannick↗

Resolving individual atoms of protein complex by cryo-electron microscopy

Breakthroughs in single-particle cryo-electron microscopy (cryo-EM) technology have made near-atomic resolution structure determination possible. Cryo-EM has resolved over four thousand structures at near-atomic resolutions (2–4 Å). It is rapidly becoming the method of choice for structure determination of membrane proteins, large assemblies, and multi-protein complexes partly because it does not require a crystal and partly because it can accommodate specimens with heterogeneous composition and/or conformation. This powerful technique is now capable of resolving protein complexes to better than 2 Å resolution3 and has been used to solve 3.7 Å resolution structure of RNA as small as ~40 kilodaltons.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Radiation-resistant metal-organic framework enables efficient separation of krypton fission gas from spent nuclear fuel

Capture and storage of volatile radionuclides that result from processing of used nuclear fuel is a major challenge. Solid adsorbents, in particular ultra-microporous metal-organic frameworks, could be effective in capturing these volatile radionuclides, including 85 Kr. However, metal-organic frameworks are found to have higher affinity for xenon than for krypton, and have comparable affinity for Kr and N 2 . Also, the adsorbent needs to have high radiation stability. To address these challenges, here we evaluate a series of ultra-microporous metal-organic frameworks, SIFSIX-3-M (M = Zn, Cu, Ni, Co, or Fe) for their capability in 85 Kr separation and storage using a two-bed breakthrough method. These materials were found to have higher Kr/N 2 selectivity than current benchmark materials, which leads to a notable decrease in the nuclear waste volume. The materials were systematically studied for gamma and beta irradiation stability, and SIFSIX-3-Cu is found to be the most radiation resistant.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

3D printed graphene-based self-powered strain sensors for smart tires in autonomous vehicles

The transition of autonomous vehicles into fleets requires an advanced control system design that relies on continuous feedback from the tires. Smart tires enable continuous monitoring of dynamic parameters by combining strain sensing with traditional tire functions. Here, we provide breakthrough in this direction by demonstrating tire-integrated system that combines direct mask-less 3D printed strain gauges, flexible piezoelectric energy harvester for powering the sensors and secure wireless data transfer electronics, and machine learning for predictive data analysis. Ink of graphene based material was designed to directly print strain sensor for measuring tire-road interactions under varying driving speeds, normal load, and tire pressure. A secure wireless data transfer hardware powered by a piezoelectric patch is implemented to demonstrate self-powered sensing and wireless communication capability. Combined, this study significantly advances the design and fabrication of cost-effective smart tires by demonstrating practical self-powered wireless strain sensing capability.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

High thermoelectric figure of merit of porous Si nanowires from 300 to 700 K.

Thermoelectrics operating at high temperature can cost-effectively convert waste heat and compete with other zero-carbon technologies. Among different high-temperature thermoelectrics materials, silicon nanowires possess the combined attributes of cost effectiveness and mature manufacturing infrastructures. Despite significant breakthroughs in silicon nanowires based thermoelectrics for waste heat conversion, the figure of merit (ZT) or operating temperature has remained low. Here, we report the synthesis of large-area, wafer-scale arrays of porous silicon nanowires with ultra-thin Si crystallite size of ~4 nm. Concurrent measurements of thermal conductivity (κ), electrical conductivity (σ), and Seebeck coefficient (S) on the same nanowire show a ZT of 0.71 at 700 K, which is more than ~18 times higher than bulk Si. This ZT value is more than two times higher than any nanostructured Si-based thermoelectrics reported in the literature at 700 K. Experimental data and theoretical modeling demonstrate that this work has the potential to achieve a ZT of ~1 at 1000 K.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Giant energy-storage density with ultrahigh efficiency in lead-free relaxors via high-entropy design

Next-generation advanced high/pulsed power capacitors rely heavily on dielectric ceramics with high energy storage performance. However, thus far, the huge challenge of realizing ultrahigh recoverable energy storage density (W rec ) accompanied by ultrahigh efficiency (η) still existed and has become a key bottleneck restricting the development of dielectric materials in cutting-edge energy storage applications. Here, we propose a high-entropy strategy to design “local polymorphic distortion” including rhombohedral-orthorhombic-tetragonal-cubic multiphase nanoclusters and random oxygen octahedral tilt, resulting in ultrasmall polar nanoregions, an enhanced breakdown electric field, and delayed polarization saturation. A giant W rec ~10.06 Jcm –3 is realized in lead-free relaxor ferroelectrics, especially with an ultrahigh η ~90.8%, showing breakthrough progress in the comprehensive energy storage performance for lead-free bulk ceramics. This work opens up an effective avenue to design dielectric materials with ultrahigh comprehensive energy storage performance to meet the demanding requirements of advanced energy storage applications.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Control of electronic topology in a strongly correlated electron system

It is becoming increasingly clear that breakthrough in quantum applications necessitates materials innovation. In high demand are conductors with robust topological states that can be manipulated at will. This is what we demonstrate in the present work. We discover that the pronounced topological response of a strongly correlated “Weyl-Kondo” semimetal can be genuinely manipulated—and ultimately fully suppressed—by magnetic fields. We understand this behavior as a Zeeman-driven motion of Weyl nodes in momentum space, up to the point where the nodes meet and annihilate in a topological quantum phase transition. The topologically trivial but correlated background remains unaffected across this transition, as is shown by our investigations up to much larger fields. Our work lays the ground for systematic explorations of electronic topology, and boosts the prospect for topological quantum devices.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Probing sub-5 Ångstrom micropores in carbon for precise light olefin/paraffin separation

Olefin/paraffin separation is an important but challenging and energy-intensive process in petrochemical industry. The realization of carbons with size-exclusion capability is highly desirable but rarely reported. Herein, we report polydopamine-derived carbons (PDA-Cx, where x refers to the pyrolysis temperature) with tailorable sub-5 Å micropore orifices together with larger microvoids by one-step pyrolysis. The sub-5 Å micropore orifices centered at 4.1–4.3 Å in PDA-C800 and 3.7–4.0 Å in PDA-C900 allow the entry of olefins while entirely excluding their paraffin counterparts, performing a precise cut-off to discriminate olefin/paraffin with sub-angstrom discrepancy. The larger voids enable high C 2 H 4 and C 3 H 6 capacities of 2.25 and 1.98 mmol g –1 under ambient conditions, respectively. Breakthrough experiments confirm that a one-step adsorption-desorption process can obtain high-purity olefins. Inelastic neutron scattering further reveals the host–guest interaction of adsorbed C 2 H 4 and C 3 H 6 molecules in PDA-Cx. This study opens an avenue to exploit the sub-5 Å micropores in carbon and their desirable size-exclusion effect.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Programmable catalysis by support polarization: elucidating and breaking scaling relations

The Sabatier principle and the scaling relations have been widely used to search for and screen new catalysts in the field of catalysis. However, these powerful tools can also serve as limitations of catalyst control and breakthrough. To overcome this challenge, this work proposes an efficient method of studying catalyst control by support polarization from first-principles. The results demonstrate that the properties of catalysts are determined by support polarization, irrespective of the magnitude of spontaneous polarization of support. The approach enables elucidating the scaling relations between binding energies at various polarization values of support. Moreover, we observe the breakdown of scaling relations for the surface controlled by support polarization. By studying the surface electronic structure and decomposing the induced charge into contributions from different atoms and orbitals, we identify the inherent structural property of the interface that leads to the breaking of the scaling relations. Specifically, the displacements of the underlying oxide support impose its symmetry on the catalyst, causing the scaling relations between different adsorption sites to break.

Chemical engineering↗