Long-run availability of mineral resources: The dynamic case of lithium
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Estimating the risk of lead contamination of schools' drinking water at the State level is a complex, important, and unexplored challenge. Variable water quality among water systems and changes in water chemistry during distribution affect lead dissolution rates from pipes and fittings. In addition, the locations of lead-bearing plumbing materials are uncertain. We tested the capability of six machine learning models to predict the likelihood of lead contamination of drinking water at the schools' taps using only publicly available datasets. The predictive features used in the models correspond to those with a proven correlation to the dominant, but commonly unavailable, factors that govern lead leaching: the presence of lead-bearing plumbing materials and water quality conducive to lead corrosion. By combining water chemistry data from public reports, socioeconomic information from the US census, and spatial features using Geographic Information Systems, we trained and tested models to estimate the likelihood of lead contaminated tap water in over 8,000 schools across California and Massachusetts. Our best-performing model was a Random Forest, with a 10-fold cross validation score of 0.88 for Massachusetts and 0.78 for California using the average Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (ROC AUC) metric. The model was then used to assign a lead leaching risk category to half of the schools across California (the other half was used for training). There was good agreement between the modeled risk categories and the actual lead leaching outcomes for every school; however, the model overestimated the lead leaching risk in up to 17% of the schools. This model is the first of its kind to offer a tool to predict the risk of lead leaching in schools at the State level. Further use of this model can help deploy limited resources more effectively to prevent childhood lead exposure from school drinking water.
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Highlights: • Nitrogen release in digestate-amended soil depends on the digestate type. • Overall N release is modulated by digestate mineral and mineralisable N contents. • Microbial immobilisation does not influence overall release of digestate N in soil. • Digestate physical properties and soil type interact to affect overall N recovery. • High labile C inputs in digestate may promote denitrification in fine-textured soil. - Abstract: Recycling biowaste digestates on agricultural land diverts biodegradable waste from landfill disposal and represents a sustainable source of nutrients and organic matter (OM) to improve soil for crop production. However, the dynamics of nitrogen (N) release from these organic N sources must be determined to optimise their fertiliser value and management. This laboratory incubation experiment examined the effects of digestate type (aerobic and anaerobic), waste type (industrial, agricultural and municipal solid waste or sewage sludge) and soil type (sandy loam, sandy silt loam and silty clay) on N availability in digestate-amended soils and also quantified the extent and significance of the immobilisation of N within the soil microbial biomass, as a possible regulatory mechanism of N release. The digestate types examined included: dewatered, anaerobically digested biosolids (DMAD); dewatered, anaerobic mesophilic digestate from the organic fraction of municipal solid waste (DMADMSW); liquid, anaerobic co-digestate of food and animal slurry (LcoMAD) and liquid, thermophilic aerobic digestate of food waste (LTAD). Ammonium chloride (NH{sub 4}Cl) was included as a reference treatment for mineral N. After 48 days, the final, maximum net recoveries of mineral N relative to the total N (TN) addition in the different digestates and unamended control treatments were in the decreasing order: LcoMAD, 68%; LTAD, 37%, DMAD, 20%; and DMADMSW, 11%. A transient increase in microbial biomass N (MBN) was observed with LTAD application, indicating greater microbial activity in amended soil and reflecting the lower stability of this OM source, compared to the other, anaerobic digestate types, which showed no consistent effects on MBN compared to the control. Thus, the overall net release of digestate N in different soil types was not regulated by N transfer into the soil microbial biomass, but was determined primarily by digestate properties and the capacity of the soil type to process and turnover digestate N. In contrast to the sandy soil types, where nitrate (NO{sub 3}{sup -}) concentrations increased during incubation, there was an absence of NO{sub 3}{sup -} accumulation in the silty clay soil amended with LTAD and DMADMSW. This provided indirect evidence for denitrification activity and the gaseous loss of N, and the associated increased risk of greenhouse gas emissions under certain conditions of labile C supply and/or digestate physical structure in fine-textured soil types. The significance and influence of the interaction between soil type and digestate stability and physical properties on denitrification processes in digestate-amended soils require urgent investigation to ensure management practices are appropriate to minimise greenhouse gas emissions from land applied biowastes.
Highlights: • The safe management of asbestos is a matter of considerable importance. • There is a lack of literature concerning the development of a program for ACBMs. •A management program for the optimal disposal of ACBMs has been developed. • This program is also available in the event of a post-disaster. - Abstract: The safe management and disposal of asbestos is a matter of considerable importance. A large number of studies have been undertaken to quantify the issue of waste management following a disaster. Nevertheless, there have been few (if any) studies concerning asbestos waste, covering the amount generated, the cost of disposal, and the degree of hazard incurred. Thus, the current study focuses on developing a program for the management of Asbestos Containing Building Materials (ACBMs), which form the source of asbestos waste in the event of a disaster. The study will also discuss a case study undertaken in a specific region in Korea in terms of: (1) the location of ACBM-containing buildings; (2) types and quantities of ACBMs; (3) the cost of ACBM disposal; (4) the amount of asbestos fiber present during normal times and during post-disaster periods; (5) the required order in which ACBM-containing buildings should be dismantled; and (6) additional greenhouse gases generated during ACBM removal. The case study will focus on a specific building, with an area of 35.34 m{sup 2}, and will analyze information concerning the abovementioned points. In addition, the case study will focus on a selected area (108 buildings) and the administrative district (21,063 buildings). The significance of the program can be established by the fact that it visibly transmits information concerning ACBM management. It is a highly promising program, with a widespread application for the safe management and optimal disposal of asbestos in terms of technology, policy, and methodology.
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Utilization of marginal land for growing dedicated bioenergy crops for second-generation biofuels is appealing to avoid conflicts with food production. This study develops a novel framework to quantify marginal land for the Contiguous United States (CONUS) based on a history of satellite-observed land use change (LUC) over the 2008–2015 period. Frequent LUC between crop and noncrop is assumed to be an indicator of economically marginal land; this land is also likely to have a lower opportunity cost of conversion from food crop to bioenergy crop production. We first present an approach to identify cropland in transition using the time series of Cropland Data Layer (CDL) land cover product and determine the amount of land that can be considered marginal with a high degree of confidence vs with uncertainty across the CONUS. We find that the biophysical characteristics of this land and its productivity and environmental vulnerability vary across the land and lie in between that of permanent cropland and permanent natural vegetation/bare areas; this land also has relatively low intrinsic value and agricultural profit but a high financial burden and economic risk. We find that the total area of marginal land with confidence vs with uncertainty is 10.2 and 58.4 million hectares, respectively, and mainly located along the 100th meridian. Only a portion of this marginal land (1.4–2.2 million hectares with confidence and 14.8–19.4 million hectares with uncertainty) is in the rainfed region and not in crop production and, thus, suitable for producing energy crops without diverting land from food crops in 2016. These estimates are much smaller than the estimates obtained by previous studies, which consider all biophysically low-quality land to be marginal without considering economical marginality. The estimate of marginal land for bioenergy crops obtained in this study is an indicator of the availability of economically marginal land that is suitable for bioenergy crop production; whether this land is actually converted to bioenergy crops will depend on the market conditions. Here, we note the inability to conduct field-level validation of cropland in transition and leave it to future advances in technology to ground-truth land use change and its relationship to economically marginal land.
Biostimulation to promote reductive dechlorination is widely practiced, but the value of adding an exogenous nitrogen (N) source (e.g., NH 4 + ) during treatment is unclear. This study investigates the effect of NH 4 + availability on organohalide-respiring Dehalococcoides mccartyi (Dhc) growth and reductive dechlorination in enrichment cultures derived from groundwater (PW4) and river sediment (TC) impacted with chlorinated ethenes. In PW4 cultures, the addition of NH 4 + increased cis-1,2-dichloroethene (cDCE)-to-ethene dechlorination rates about 5-fold (20.6 ± 1.6 versus 3.8 ± 0.5 μM Cl – d -1 ), and the total number of Dhc 16S rRNA gene copies were about 43-fold higher in incubations with NH 4 + ((1.8 ± 0.9) × 10 8 mL –1 ) compared to incubations without NH 4 + ((4.1 ± 0.8) × 10 7 mL –1 ). In TC cultures, NH 4 + also stimulated cDCE-to-ethene dechlorination and Dhc growth. Quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) revealed that Cornell-type Dhc capable of N 2 fixation dominated PW4 cultures without NH 4 + , but their relative abundance decreased in cultures with NH 4 + amendment (i.e., 99 versus 54% of total Dhc). Pinellas-type Dhc incapable of N 2 fixation were responsible for cDCE dechlorination in TC cultures, and diazotrophic community members met their fixed N requirement in the medium without NH 4 + . Responses to NH 4 + were apparent at the community level, and N 2 -fixing bacterial populations increased in incubations without NH 4 + . Quantitative assessment of Dhc nitrogenase genes, transcripts, and proteomics data linked Cornell-type Dhc nifD and nifK expression with fixed N limitation. NH 4 + additions also demonstrated positive effects on Dhc in situ dechlorination activity in the vicinity of well PW4. Finally, these findings demonstrate that biostimulation with NH 4 + can enhance Dhc reductive dechlorination rates; however, a “do nothing” approach that relies on indigenous diazotrophs can achieve similar dechlorination end points and avoids the potential for stalled dechlorination due to inhibitory levels of NH 4 + or transformation products (i.e., nitrous oxide).
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Large uncertainties in the susceptibility of tropical forest productivity to precipitation changes hamper climate change projection. Interactions between the availabilities of water and phosphorus could theoretically either increase or decrease the susceptibility of tropical gas exchange to variation of precipitation. The inclusion of phosphorus-water interactions in a land surface model reduces the coefficient of variance, a measure of variability, of biweekly gross primary productivity by a factor of 1.5–2.3 at three tropical forest sites in Brazil, bringing it closer to estimates from eddy covariance measurements and remote sensing. Soil drought conditions are attenuated due to 8–30% lower water consumption during wet periods in presence of phosphorus limitation. When soils are dry, plant phosphorus acquisition is impaired by reduced ion mobility, despite an increase in net phosphorus mineralization. We conclude that water-phosphorus interactions cannot be omitted in analysis of the resilience of tropical ecosystems to precipitation changes.
Abstract The moisture‐entrainment‐convection (MEC) feedback posits that a moist environment favors deep convection, which further moistens the atmosphere through its associated circulation and detrainment. The MEC feedback has been proposed to be crucial to spontaneous convective aggregation. Here we test this hypothesis by performing minimal cloud‐resolving simulations, without the buoyancy effect due to water vapor, evaporation of rain, or radiative and surface‐flux feedbacks. Convection can self‐aggregate in this minimal simulation, in which the MEC feedback is active. We then switch off this feedback by relaxing moisture to its horizontal mean over a time scale of 3 hr. Convection still self‐aggregates in this mechanism‐denial experiment, suggesting that the MEC feedback is not essential to self‐aggregation. We further show that convective heating coincides with positive temperature anomalies, generating available potential energy. Therefore, we propose that this convective heating‐overturning circulation feedback can lead to spontaneous development of large‐scale circulations.
Projected 21st century changes in high-latitude climate are expected to have significant impacts on permafrost thaw, which could cause substantial increases in emissions to the atmosphere of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and methane (CH 4 , which has a global warming potential 28 times larger than CO 2 over a 100-year horizon). However, predicted CH 4 emission rates are very uncertain due to difficulties in modeling complex interactions among hydrological, thermal, biogeochemical, and plant processes. Methanogenic production pathways (i.e., acetoclastic [AM] and hydrogenotrophic [HM]) and the magnitude of CH 4 emissions may both change as permafrost thaws, but a mechanistic analysis of controls on such shifts in CH 4 dynamics is lacking. In this study, we reproduced observed shifts in CH 4 emissions and production pathways with a comprehensive biogeochemical model (ecosys) at the Stordalen Mire in subarctic Sweden. Our results demonstrate that soil temperature changes differently affect AM and HM substrate availability, which regulates magnitudes of AM, HM, and thereby net CH 4 emissions. We predict very large landscape-scale, vertical, and temporal variations in the modeled HM fraction, highlighting that measurement strategies for metrics that compare CH 4 production pathways could benefit from model informed scale of temporal and spatial variance. Finally, our findings suggest that the warming and wetting trends projected in northern peatlands could enhance peatland AM fraction and CH 4 emissions even without further permafrost degradation.
Bedrock vadose zone water storage (i.e., rock moisture) dynamics are rarely observed but potentially key to understanding drought responses. Exploiting a borehole network at a Mediterranean blue oak savanna site—Rancho Venada—we document how water storage capacity in deeply weathered bedrock profiles regulates woody plant water availability and groundwater recharge. The site is in the Northern California Coast Range within steeply dipping turbidites. In a wet year (water year 2019; 647 mm of precipitation), rock moisture was quickly replenished to a characteristic storage capacity, recharging groundwater that emerged at springs to generate streamflow. In the subsequent rainless summer growing season, rock moisture was depleted by about 93 mm. In two drought years that followed (212 and 121 mm of precipitation) the total amount of rock moisture gained each winter was about 54 and 20 mm, respectively, and declines were documented exceeding these amounts, resulting in progressively lower rock moisture content. Oaks, which are rooted into bedrock, demonstrated signs of water stress in drought, including reduced transpiration rates and extremely low water potentials. In the 2020–2021 drought, precipitation did not exceed storage capacity, resulting in variable belowground water storage, increased plant water stress, and no recharge or runoff. Rock moisture deficits (rather than soil moisture deficits) explain these responses.
Lowland tropical forest soils are relatively N rich and are the largest global source of N 2 O (a powerful greenhouse gas) to the atmosphere. Despite the importance of tropical N cycling, there have been few direct measurements of N 2 (an inert gas that can serve as an alternate fate for N 2 O) in tropical soils, limiting our ability to characterize N budgets, manage soils to reduce N 2 O production, or predict the future role that N limitation to primary productivity will play in buffering against climate change. We collected soils from across macro‐ and micro‐topographic gradients that have previously been shown to differ in O 2 availability and trace gas emissions. We then incubated these soils under oxic and anoxic headspaces to explore the relative effect of soil location versus transient redox conditions. No matter where the soils came from, or what headspace O 2 was used in the incubation, N 2 emissions dominated the flux of N gas losses. In the macrotopography plots, production of N 2 and N 2 O were higher in low O 2 valleys than on more aerated ridges and slopes. In the microtopography plots, N 2 emissions from plots with lower mean soil O 2 (5%–10%) were greater than in plots with higher mean soil O 2 (10%–20%). We estimate an N gas flux of ∼37 kg N/ha/yr from this forest, 99% as N 2 . These results suggest that N 2 fluxes may have been systematically underestimated in these landscapes, and that the measurements we present call for a reevaluation of the N budgets in lowland tropical forest ecosystems.
Prior research on climate change impacts on flooding has primarily focused on changes in extreme rainfall magnitudes, often neglecting snow processes and spatiotemporal storm patterns, such as hyetograph shapes and areal reduction factors (ARFs). This study examines projected changes in extreme water available for runoff (W) events in two snow-dominated basins in the western United States: the Yakima River Basin (YRB) in Washington State and the Walker River Basin (WRB) spanning the California-Nevada border. We analyze changes in W magnitudes, mechanisms, hyetograph shapes, and ARFs, and study their compounded impacts on flood hazard. Our findings suggest increased extreme W magnitudes across a large portion of the basins, with steeper or flatter hyetographs, and higher ARF values under the future climate. These changes are driven by a shift from seasonal snowmelt to more rain-on-snow events at higher elevations and by increased rainfall at lower elevations. We then use a single event-based rainfall-runoff model to estimate flood hazard changes based on extreme W magnitudes, hyetograph shapes, ARFs, and their compounded impacts. Our analysis reveals that focusing solely on the magnitude of changes in extreme W can significantly underestimate future flood hazards and uncertainties. Ignoring future changes in spatiotemporal patterns can underestimate future flood hazards by 63% and underestimate the uncertainty in future flood events by 18% in the WRB. These results underscore the necessity of incorporating spatiotemporal dynamics into future flood hazard assessments to provide a more accurate evaluation of potential impacts.
Abstract Nitrogen (N) is frequently limiting to plant growth, in part because most soil N is present as polymeric organic compounds that are not readily taken up by plants. Microbial depolymerization of these large macromolecular N-substrates gradually releases available inorganic N. While many studies have researched and modeled controls on soil organic matter formation and bulk N mineralization, the ecological—spatial, temporal and phylogenetic—patterns underlying organic N degradation remain unclear. We analyzed 48 time-resolved metatranscriptomes and quantified N-depolymerization gene expression to resolve differential expression by soil habitat and time in specific taxonomic groups and gene-based guilds. We observed much higher expression of extracellular serine-type proteases than other extracellular N-degrading enzymes, with protease expression of predatory bacteria declining with time and other taxonomic patterns driven by the presence (Gammaproteobacteria) or absence (Thermoproteota) of live roots and root detritus (Deltaproteobacteria and Fungi). The primary chitinase chit1 gene was more highly expressed by eukaryotes near root detritus, suggesting predation of fungi. In some lineages, increased gene expression over time suggests increased competitiveness with rhizosphere age (Chloroflexi). Phylotypes from some genera had protease expression patterns that could benefit plant N nutrition, for example, we identified a Janthinobacterium phylotype and two Burkholderiales that depolymerize organic N near young roots and a Rhizobacter with elevated protease levels near mature roots. These taxon-resolved gene expression results provide an ecological read-out of microbial interactions and controls on N dynamics in specific soil microhabitats and could be used to target potential plant N bioaugmentation strategies.