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At least 307 records · Page 17

Upstreamness and downstreamness in input–output analysis from local and aggregate information

Abstract Ranking sectors and countries within global value chains is of paramount importance to estimate risks and forecast growth in large economies. However, this task is often non-trivial due to the lack of complete and accurate information on the flows of money and goods between sectors and countries, which are encoded in input–output (I–O) tables. In this work, we show that an accurate estimation of the role played by sectors and countries in supply chain networks can be achieved without full knowledge of the I–O tables, but only relying on local and aggregate information, e.g., the total intermediate demand per sector. Our method, based on a rank-1 approximation to the I–O table, shows consistently good performance in reconstructing rankings (i.e., upstreamness and downstreamness measures for countries and sectors) when tested on empirical data from the world input–output database. Moreover, we connect the accuracy of our approximate framework with the spectral properties of the I–O tables, which ordinarily exhibit relatively large spectral gaps. Our approach provides a fast and analytically tractable framework to rank constituents of a complex economy without the need of matrix inversions and the knowledge of finer intersectorial details.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Impact Mapping for Geospatial Reasoning and Decision Making

Objective The reported study evaluated a novel approach to aiding geospatial reasoning and decision making. Background Impact mapping aims to alleviate the cognitive demands of geospatial tasks in part by externalizing data in the form of an integrated decision surface. This is achieved by aggregating data across multiple sources of information and visualizing their combined utility rather than objective measurements or individual utility. Previous research has shown that geospatial decisions improve when aided in this manner, but it remains unknown if dynamic decision making, often plagued by fatigue and anchoring bias, would benefit similarly. Method The experiment implemented a systematic manipulation of the presence of a composite impact map and the number of attributes present in a two-stage disaster relief, resource allocation task to investigate when and how impact mapping is beneficial or deleterious to decision makers. Results The presence of the composite impact map increased the utility of selected sites, increased re-planning decisions, reduced information display views, and reduced workload. Generally, the effect of the composite impact map was greater when participants were asked to evaluate more attributes. Conclusion Composite impact maps appear to improve repeated geospatial reasoning and minimize anchoring bias because they alleviate the cognitive demands otherwise necessary to interpret and maintain information from multiple attributes. Application Data visualization techniques, such as impact mapping, can improve repeated geospatial decision making in environments that include high cognitive demand.

Illingworth, David A.↗

Synthesis of nanodiamonds encapsulated by zeolitic imidazole framework-8 for quantum sensing applications

Nitrogen vacancy (NV)-containing nanodiamonds are widely used in quantum sensing applications due to their high sensitivity to magnetic fields, relatively low cost, and ability to be initialized, manipulated, and read out at room temperature. Quantum sensing techniques such as optically detected magnetic resonance (ODMR) and spin relaxometry have exploited the sensitivity of the NV nanodiamonds to magnetic fields to detect a range of analytes, such as pH, metal ions, and biomolecules. However, diversifying the sensing targets accessible by NV diamond quantum sensors typically requires careful engineering of the diamond surface chemistry with stimuli-responsive functional groups. Here, a simple protocol for coating NV nanodiamonds with the zeolitic imidazole framework 8 (ZIF-8), a widely used metal-organic framework, is presented. ZIF-8 is a highly porous material that has been used as a selective sensor for gasses, metal ions, and other analytes. The material is well-characterized by x-ray diffraction, transmission electron microscopy, scanning electron microscopy, x-ray photoelectron spectroscopy, and luminescence spectroscopy. Encapsulation of NV nanodiamonds with a porous scaffold such as ZIF-8 provides a promising method for improving the selectivity for the quantum sensing of various analytes. Importantly, the ZIF-8 coating does not impact the luminescence properties of the NV diamond, which is a key readout in ODMR and spin relaxometry sensing approaches. Indeed, the ODMR spectra with and without the ZIF-8 shell is nearly identical. Moreover, the ZIF-8 coating increases the longitudinal spin relaxation time of the NV nanodiamond by a factor of 4 relative to aggregated diamond, a desirable outcome for spin relaxation-based quantum sensing. Metal-organic framework composites with nanodiamonds thus are an exciting strategy for enhancing NV nanodiamond performance in applications such as quantum sensing and quantum-enhanced nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy.

nitrogen vacancy nanodiamond↗

Chemical Kinetic Method for Active-Site Quantification in Fe-N-C Catalysts and Correlation with Molecular Probe and Spectroscopic Site-Counting Methods

Mononuclear Fe ions ligated by nitrogen (FeN x ) dispersed on nitrogen-doped carbon (Fe-N-C) serve as active centers for electrocatalytic O 2 reduction and thermocatalytic aerobic oxidations. Despite their promise as replacements for precious metals in a variety of practical applications, such as fuel cells, the discovery of new Fe-N-C catalysts has relied primarily on empirical approaches. In this context, the development of quantitative structure–reactivity relationships and benchmarking of catalysts prepared by different synthetic routes and by different laboratories would be facilitated by the broader adoption of methods to quantify atomically dispersed FeN x active centers. In the present study, we develop a kinetic probe reaction method that uses the aerobic oxidation of a model hydroquinone substrate to quantify the density of FeN x centers in Fe- N-C catalysts. The kinetic method is compared with low-temperature Mössbauer spectroscopy, CO pulse chemisorption, and electrochemical reductive stripping of NO derived from NO 2 – on a suite of Fe-N-C catalysts prepared by diverse routes and featuring either the exclusive presence of Fe as FeN x sites or the coexistence of aggregated Fe species in addition to FeN x . The FeN x site densities derived from the kinetic method correlate well with those obtained from CO pulse chemisorption and Mössbauer spectroscopy. The broad survey of Fe-N-C materials also reveals the presence of outliers and challenges associated with each site quantification approach. Furthermore, the kinetic method developed here does not require pretreatments that may alter active-site distributions nor specialized equipment beyond reaction vessels and analytical instrumentation (e.g., NMR).

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Power system inertia estimation: Review of methods and the impacts of converter-interfaced generations

Understanding and quantifying the inertia of power systems with the integration of converter-interfaced generation (CIG) plays an essential role in the safe transition to a future low-inertia scenario. Here we provide a comprehensive summary of inertia definitions for both synchronous generators and CIGs as well as their corresponding estimation methods. In particular, the estimation methods are categorized as model-based and measurement-based approaches considering both small and large disturbances. The advantages and disadvantages of different methods are carefully discussed. This paper also offers for the first time a framework to quantify the virtual inertia of CIGs at the component and aggregation levels, an open problem in the literature. Finally, future directions for inertia estimation are identified and discussed. This significantly benefits the design of appropriate control and protection schemes in achieving a more reliable, secure, and resilient power system.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Analysis of the microphysical properties of snowfall using scanning polarimetric and vertically pointing multi-frequency Doppler radars

Radar dual-wavelength ratio (DWR) measurements from the Stony Brook Radar Observatory Ka-band scanning polarimetric radar (KASPR, 35 GHz), a W-band profiling radar (94 GHz), and a next-generation K-band (24 GHz) micro rain radar (MRRPro) were exploited for ice particle identification using triple-frequency approaches. The results indicated that two of the radar frequencies (K and Ka band) are not sufficiently separated; thus, the triple-frequency radar approaches had limited success. On the other hand, a joint analysis of DWR, mean Doppler velocity (MDV), and polarimetric radar variables indicated potential in identifying ice particle types and distinguishing among different ice growth processes and even in revealing additional microphysical details. We investigated all DWR pairs in conjunction with MDV from the KASPR profiling measurements and differential reflectivity (Z DR ) and specific differential phase (K DP ) from the KASPR quasi-vertical profiles. The DWR-versus-MDV diagrams coupled with the polarimetric observables exhibited distinct separations of particle populations attributed to different rime degrees and particle growth processes. In fallstreaks, the 35–94 GHz DWR pair increased with the magnitude of MDV corresponding to the scattering calculations for aggregates with lower degrees of riming. The DWR values further increased at lower altitudes while Z DR slightly decreased, indicating further aggregation. Particle populations with higher rime degrees had a similar increase in DWR but a 1–1.5 m s –1 larger magnitude of MDV and rapid decreases in K DP and Z DR . The analysis also depicted the early stage of riming where Z DR increased with the MDV magnitude collocated with small increases in DWR. This approach will improve quantitative estimations of snow amount and microphysical quantities such as rime mass fraction. The study suggests that triple-frequency measurements are not always necessary for in-depth ice microphysical studies and that dual-frequency polarimetric and Doppler measurements can successfully be used to gain insights into ice hydrometeor microphysics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Large Scale Synthesis of Manganese Oxide/Reduced Graphene Oxide Composites as Anode Materials for Long Cycle Lithium Ion Batteries

Manganese oxides have been frequently used as cathodes in primary batteries. Applications of manganese oxides in secondary batteries are limited by low electrical conductivity and rapid capacity fading because of electrode pulverization and aggregation. In this study, a solid-state synthetic strategy is presented that successfully combines nanosize (~ 50 nm) nickel doped α-MnO 2 with reduced graphene oxides as highly stable composite anodes in lithium ion batteries. The synthesis approach is easy to scale up and suitable for industrial applications. Here, the rationally designed Ni-α-MnO 2 /RGO was tested in galvanostatic half coin cells for Li + charge-discharge studies. The results show that this composite maintains a high capacity of 615 mAh g -1 even after 200 cycles at a high current rate of 1 C (830 mA g -1 ), and with a high Coulombic efficiency near 99%. The anodes exhibit excellent rate capability in a wide range of rate testing from 0.2 to 10 C, without showing capacity decay. This superior anode performance is ascribed to the reduced size of α-MnO 2 domains that are well dispersed in an RGO matrix, which affords good ionic/elec. cond., low charge transfer resistance and mitigates issues of vol. expansion of the anodic active materials. This study opens up an avenue for developing the manufacturing of high-performance electrodes for real applications, such as batteries in electrical vehicles.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

A Framework for Inverse Prediction Using Functional Response Data

Inverse prediction models have commonly been developed to handle scalar data from physical experiments. However, it is not uncommon for data to be collected in functional form. When data are collected in functional form, it must be aggregated to fit the form of traditional methods, which often results in a loss of information. For expensive experiments, this loss of information can be costly. In this study, we introduce the functional inverse prediction (FIP) framework, a general approach which uses the full information in functional response data to provide inverse predictions with probabilistic prediction uncertainties obtained with the bootstrap. The FIP framework is a general methodology that can be modified by practitioners to accommodate many different applications and types of data. We demonstrate the framework, highlighting points of flexibility, with a simulation example and applications to weather data and to nuclear forensics. Results show how functional models can improve the accuracy and precision of predictions.

42 ENGINEERING↗

GAHLS: an optimized graph analytics based high level synthesis framework

The urgent need for low latency, high-compute and low power on-board intelligence in autonomous systems, cyber-physical systems, robotics, edge computing, evolvable computing, and complex data science calls for determining the optimal amount and type of specialized hardware together with reconfigurability capabilities. With these goals in mind, we propose a novel comprehensive graph analytics based high level synthesis (GAHLS) framework that efficiently analyzes complex high level programs through a combined compiler-based approach and graph theoretic optimization and synthesizes them into message passing domain-specific accelerators. This GAHLS framework first constructs a compiler-assisted dependency graph (CaDG) from low level virtual machine (LLVM) intermediate representation (IR) of high level programs and converts it into a hardware friendly description representation. Next, the GAHLS framework performs a memory design space exploration while account for the identified computational properties from the CaDG and optimizing the system performance for higher bandwidth. The GAHLS framework also performs a robust optimization to identify the CaDG subgraphs with similar computational structures and aggregate them into intelligent processing clusters in order to optimize the usage of underlying hardware resources. Finally, the GAHLS framework synthesizes this compressed specialized CaDG into processing elements while optimizing the system performance and area metrics. Evaluations of the GAHLS framework on several real-life applications (e.g., deep learning, brain machine interfaces) demonstrate that it provides 14.27× performance improvements compared to state-of-the-art approaches such as LegUp 6.2.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Heterogeneity and Hysteresis in the Polymer Collapse of Single Core–Shell Stimuli-Responsive Plasmonic Nanohybrids

Broad application of polymeric stimuli-responsive smart nanohybrids requires understanding the mechanisms governing active control. Ensemble techniques have identified inhomogeneous polymer collapse in microgels that potentially arise from heterogeneous interchain interactions and differences in core size. A single-particle examination would establish the influence of core size and internal polymer network heterogeneity on local interactions that contribute to the observed inhomogeneous polymer collapse dynamics of nanohybrids. Using single-particle dark-field spectroscopy, we investigated the complex polymer collapse profiles of core–shell plasmonic nanohybrids comprising thermoresponsive poly(N-isopropylacrylamide) (pNIPAM)-encapsulated gold nanorods (AuNRs). We report that the polymer collapse behavior was independent of the core size. For thinner polymer shells, we observed hysteresis in the collapse of AuNR@pNIPAMs, likely related to local pNIPAM aggregation due to interchain hydrogen bonding. For thicker polymer shells, we observed a broad polymer collapse distribution that we attributed to a two-step phase transition that arises from a polymer network density gradient. Furthermore, our single-particle approach relates the internal heterogeneity of the polymer network of nanohybrids to the mechanisms underlying heterogeneous phase transitions that traditional, ensemble-averaged approaches are unable to discern.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Grid Services Load Shift Baseline Degradation Analysis Methodology v1

As demand flexibility becomes more common, the mix and frequency of a range of demand flexibility strategies will introduce potential biases into baselines, i.e., the time period immediately prior to a LS event may include other LS or DF events. Baseline degradation assessment provides an approach to quantify how these biases begin to compromise predictive accuracy. Heatmaps, based on each month of the year provides a granular view of a given model's predictive capability. However, for comparing multiple algorithms, separately for weekdays and weekends, aggregating results to seasons provides a simpler means of comparison while still allowing for review of variations by time of day and time of year

Fernandes, Samuel↗

Vehicle-to-manufacturing (V2M) system: A novel approach to improve energy demand flexibility for demand response towards sustainable manufacturing

The U.S. manufacturing sector accounts for 77% of the industrial energy consumption, but its participation in demand response (DR) programs is largely lagged behind. The limited flexibility in production scheduling under high capacity utilization and the lack of DR schemes that incorporate energy demand flexibility measures are deemed as major barriers. In this study, a framework of the interactive vehicles-to-manufacturing (V2M) energy sharing system is proposed to improve the energy demand flexibility of the aggregated system and enhance the DR effectiveness for manufacturers. The V2M-based DR scheme aims to reduce the energy cost by load shifting through joint production and energy sharing control, which can eventually promote manufacturing DR implementation even under high capacity utilization requirements and dynamic real-time electricity prices. The V2M system is modeled based on a discrete-Markov chain considering the complex interconnections among various manufacturing resources and multi-directional energy flows among manufacturing facilities, electric vehicles, and the power grid. Based on the system model, a mixed-integer nonlinear programming (MINLP) problem is formulated to identify the optimal DR scheme. The effectiveness of the proposed approach is validated through comparisons with traditional manufacturing DR schemes. Finally, the results show that a 2.1 to 6.5 times energy demand flexibility improvement and an additional 4.7% to 6.9% energy cost reduction can be achieved by the proposed approach.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Mechanism Analysis of Wind Turbine Var Oscillations

Electromagnetic transient simulation of parallel connected 4-MW type-3 wind turbines based on original equipment manufacturer's real-code turbine model shows 1.2-Hz turbine-turbine oscillations in reactive power. This letter reveals why such oscillations occur in the individual var measurement, while being insignificant in the total var measurement, regardless of the varying grid impedance. We adopt two analysis approaches: open-loop single-input single-output analysis and network decomposition. The two approaches differ in their treatment of turbine-network interaction. The open-loop analysis shows that the turbine-turbine oscillation mode is due to an open-loop system pole being attracted to an open-loop system zero. Furthermore, we use network decomposition method to explain why this mode is observable in individual vars while not observable in the total var. The entire system of n -turbines can be viewed as n decoupled circuits. For the two-turbine case, the system has an aggregated mode and a turbine-turbine oscillation mode. Here, the aggregated mode is associated with a circuit associated with the total var, while the turbine-turbine oscillation mode is associated with the var difference and is insensitive to the grid parameters.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Bridging Aromatic/Antiaromatic Units: Recent Advances in Aromaticity and Antiaromaticity in Main-group and Transition-Metal Clusters from Bonding and Magnetic Analyses

Synthetic exploration and theoretical characterization of metal clusters are actively developing branches of modern inorganic chemistry. Advances in these areas constantly expand the rich structural diversity of viable species, allowing a detailed study of the fundamental characteristics of bench-stable compounds. In this minireview, we summarize recent achievements in synthesis and computational analyses of main-group and heterometallic clusters containing multiple aromatic/antiaromatic units. These systems range from bare clusters to ligand-decorated aggregates, providing a fundamental understanding of the aromaticity and antiaromaticity concepts in species exhibiting unprecedented shapes and composition. The review gives a comprehensive summary of bonding and magnetic response properties of such systems deciphered from the Adaptive Natural Density Partitioning (AdNDP) approach and induced magnetic field analyses.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOME: Directional medical embedding vectors from Electronic Health Records

Motivation: The increasing availability of Electronic Health Record (EHR) systems has created enormous potential for translational research. Recent developments in representation learning techniques have led to effective large-scale representations of EHR concepts along with knowledge graphs that empower downstream EHR studies. However, most existing methods require training with patient-level data, limiting their abilities to expand the training with multi-institutional EHR data. On the other hand, scalable approaches that only require summary-level data do not incorporate temporal dependencies between concepts. Methods: We introduce a DirectiOnal Medical Embedding (DOME) algorithm to encode temporally directional relationships between medical concepts, using summary-level EHR data. Specifically, DOME first aggregates patient-level EHR data into an asymmetric co-occurrence matrix. Then it computes two Positive Pointwise Mutual Information (PPMI) matrices to correspondingly encode the pairwise prior and posterior dependencies between medical concepts. Following that, a joint matrix factorization is performed on the two PPMI matrices, which results in three vectors for each concept: a semantic embedding and two directional context embeddings. They collectively provide a comprehensive depiction of the temporal relationship between EHR concepts. Results: We highlight the advantages and translational potential of DOME through three sets of validation studies. First, DOME consistently improves existing direction-agnostic embedding vectors for disease risk prediction in several diseases, for example achieving a relative gain of 5.5% in the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) for lung cancer. Second, DOME excels in directional drug-disease relationship inference by successfully differentiating between drug side effects and indications, correspondingly achieving relative AUROC gain over the state-of-the-art methods by 10.8% and 6.6%. Finally, DOME effectively constructs directional knowledge graphs, which distinguish disease risk factors from comorbidities, thereby revealing disease progression trajectories. The source codes are provided at https://github.com/celehs/Directional-EHRembedding.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Artificial Intelligence for Data Center Operations (AIOps): Cooperative Research and Development (Final Report)

High performance computing data centers will increasingly need to rely on automation to keep pace with exascale growth in compute capability and to manage and optimize the data center environment and facility resources. Artificial intelligence and machine learning approaches provide the means to improve HPC data center operational efficiency, by learning historical trends and training models to operate on real-time data collected from both IT and facilities sources. NREL has developed methods of real-time collection, aggregation and streaming of these data in the ESIF HPC Data Center and has collected a significant dataset of relevant metrics across computer systems, racks, environmental, building and utility sources for research into various predictive analytics problems. HPE's Advanced Technology Group (ATG) is doing comprehensive research into exascale monitoring and management for High Performance Computing (HPC) systems (hereinafter HPE's Data Monitoring/ Management Technology). NREL and HPE will collaborate to add Artificial Intelligence (AI) to NREL's real-time data collection/ aggregation/ streaming system and HPE's Data Monitoring/ Management System, with the goal of improving the operational efficiency of NREL's Energy Systems Integration Facility (ESIF) HPC Data Center through data analytics on both historical and real-time data from IT systems and facilities operations. This collaboration will consist of efforts in Data Management, Data Analytics, and AI/ML Optimization for both manual and autonomous intervention in data center operations. This will be a multi-year, multi-staged effort with a goal towards building capabilities for an Advanced Smart Facility, and demonstration of these techniques in the NREL ESIF HPC Data Center.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Comparing traditional and Bayesian approaches to ecological meta‐analysis

Abstract Despite the wide application of meta‐analysis in ecology, some of the traditional methods used for meta‐analysis may not perform well given the type of data characteristic of ecological meta‐analyses. We reviewed published meta‐analyses on the ecological impacts of global climate change, evaluating the number of replicates used in the primary studies ( n i ) and the number of studies or records ( k ) that were aggregated to calculate a mean effect size. We used the results of the review in a simulation experiment to assess the performance of conventional frequentist and Bayesian meta‐analysis methods for estimating a mean effect size and its uncertainty interval. Our literature review showed that n i and k were highly variable, distributions were right‐skewed and were generally small (median n i = 5, median k = 44). Our simulations show that the choice of method for calculating uncertainty intervals was critical for obtaining appropriate coverage (close to the nominal value of 0.95). When k was low (<40), 95% coverage was achieved by a confidence interval (CI) based on the t distribution that uses an adjusted standard error (the Hartung–Knapp–Sidik–Jonkman, HKSJ), or by a Bayesian credible interval, whereas bootstrap or z distribution CIs had lower coverage. Despite the importance of the method to calculate the uncertainty interval, 39% of the meta‐analyses reviewed did not report the method used, and of the 61% that did, 94% used a potentially problematic method, which may be a consequence of software defaults. In general, for a simple random‐effects meta‐analysis, the performance of the best frequentist and Bayesian methods was similar for the same combinations of factors ( k and mean replication), though the Bayesian approach had higher than nominal (>95%) coverage for the mean effect when k was very low ( k < 15). Our literature review suggests that many meta‐analyses that used z distribution or bootstrapping CIs may have overestimated the statistical significance of their results when the number of studies was low; more appropriate methods need to be adopted in ecological meta‐analyses.

Pappalardo, Paula↗

Real-time streamflow forecasting: AI vs. Hydrologic insights

In this paper, we propose a set of simple benchmarks for the evaluation of data-based models for real-time streamflow forecasting, such as those developed with sophisticated Artificial Intelligence (AI) algorithms. The benchmarks are also data-based and provide context to judge incremental improvements in the performance metrics from the more complicated approaches. The benchmarks include temporal and spatial persistence, persistence corrected for baseflow and streamflow, as well as river distance weighted runoff obtained from space-time distributed rainfall. In the development of the benchmarks, we use basic hydrologic insights such as flow aggregation by the river network, scale-dependence in basin response, streamflow partitioning into quick flow and baseflow, water travel time, and rainfall averaging by the basin width function. The study uses 140 streamflow gauges in Iowa that cover a range of basin scales between 7 and 37,000 km 2 . The data cover 17 years. This work demonstrates that the proposed benchmarks can provide good performance according to several commonly used metrics. For example, streamflow forecasting at half of the test locations across years achieves a Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE) score of 0.6 or higher at one-day ahead lead time, and 20% of cases reach the KGE of 0.8 or higher. The proposed benchmarks are easy to implement and should prove useful for developers of data-based as well as physics-based hydrologic models and real-time data assimilation techniques.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗