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DOE OSTI2025

Fully Bayesian Analysis With Model Inadequacy Correction For Nuclear Graphite Property Models With Hierarchical Variance Structure

Nuclear-grade graphites are extensively utilized in the core designs of various advanced nuclear reactors. Within the reactor environment, graphite is subjected to prolonged exposure to extreme conditions, including high temperatures, radiation, and potentially molten salt and oxygen. Such exposure can induce several degradation mechanisms in graphite, such as nonuniform volumetric strains caused by irradiation and thermal expansion, leading to stresses that may compromise the performance of graphite components. Assessing component integrity, forecasting component performance over the reactor's lifespan, and developing design standards necessitate robust tools for predicting fracture initiation and propagation in graphite structural components within nuclear reactors. This code enables the Bayesian calibration of properties for nuclear-grade graphites. Using a hierarchical Bayesian approach, multiple experimental data sources are combined to develop Gaussian process models for the properties. Using the Kennedy O'Hagan framework, the uncertainties due inadequacies in the model and the inherent spread in the experimental data are quantified.

Dhulipala, Som Lakshmi NarasimhaLakshmi Narasimha ↗

DOE OSTI2026

Performing Numerical Analysis of Cybersecurity Options Using Dynamic Risk Analysis Tool EMRALD

Cyberattacks can have many different attack paths, durations, and goals. There are also many different mitigation options involving hardware, software, and/or humans. Considering a cyber threat should involve defense-in-depth methods and a quantitative or numerical evaluation of overall effectiveness against dynamic, time-dependent attacks to make cost and risk-informed decisions. Typical cyberattack modeling methods only provide a qualitative evaluation. The main areas of cybersecurity are confidentiality, integrity, and availability. For companies with cyber-physical systems such as advanced nuclear reactors, cyber-related safety is a requirement set by North American Electric Reliability and the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. They are also concerned about availability or reliability as a business case. As cyber threats are evolving to a business-for-hire structure, more attacks may focus on disrupting business success and reliability, causing financial and economic stability risk. Companies want to know business reliability and recovery from those threats, and that requires modeling physical behavior of the targets. Dynamic-state-based and Markov-based modeling provides a method for better cyber scenario modeling with different tools having issues such as state-base explosion. Dynamic modeling enables time and conditional features not found in other numerical evaluation methods. EMRALD (Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Lined Diagrams) is a dynamic risk analysis modeling and simulation tool and has features that reduce modeling issues. It has been used to model different time-dependent events including plant behavior and operator procedures. As a general modeling tool, EMRALD can also be used to model cyberattack scenarios with varying mitigation options and quantify effectiveness, producing numerical data for risk-informed decisions. This paper uses EMRALD to demonstrate that dynamic numerical risk analysis can be used for cyber threat modeling to provide insights for design decision-making and optimize defense strategies. Keywords: cyber modeling; cyber-physical systems; numerical cyber modeling

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Regulatory Treatment of Low Frequency External Events under a Risk-Informed Performance-Based Licensing Pathway: Enhanced SPRA-based Margins Assessment

Recently there has been development in the field of risk-informed performance-based (RIPB) design and licensing approaches, which leverage detailed risk assessments and performance-based metrics to allow flexibility and innovation. These RIPB approaches include the probabilistic treatment of external hazards, including low frequency events that are beyond the design basis. However, there are certain challenges that have been identified to the probabilistic treatment of low frequency external events, primarily due to uncertainty in the hazard curve and the associated plant response to rare, severe events. The NRC is currently developing 10 CFR Part 53 that would establish a technology-inclusive regulatory framework for use by applicants for new commercial advanced nuclear reactors. By examining the regulatory safety criteria contained within draft 10 CFR Part 53 and associated draft RIPB seismic design guidance, potential challenges were identified in demonstrating satisfaction of the safety criteria for low frequency external events, with specific difficulties associated with demonstrating compliance with the quantitative health objectives (QHOs). Non-LWRs are expected to utilize the direct calculation of offsite consequence, rather than use surrogates, for comparison to the QHOs, which can be particularly challenging as the previously identified uncertainties are compounded by uncertainties in the response of the neighboring population. The central recommendation from this effort is that it is necessary to develop an approach for demonstrating compliance with the safety criteria in draft Part 53 that addresses the key challenges while providing flexibility to applicants. This paper summarizes key findings, establishes a series of high-level goals, and reviews a newly developed approach to address the major challenges associated with assessing compliance with QHOs, with avenues to demonstrate compliance based on either the estimated consequence or the available margin to event occurrence, while also building on existing experience of seismic margins assessments. The paper also provides examples to demonstrate the application of the approach, as well as recommendations and potential future work.

external hazards↗

DOE OSTI2022

4D evolution of Cr 23 C 6 precipitates in neutron-irradiated and annealed HT-UPS steel observed via synchrotron micro-computed tomography

High-temperature-ultrafine precipitate strengthened (HT-UPS) steel is a potential structural material for advanced nuclear reactors; however, its irradiation response is not well understood. This research provides insight into irradiation-induced effects, such as precipitate evolution mechanisms and four-dimensional morphological evolution, in HT-UPS steel using synchrotron micro-computed tomography. Identical specimens were characterized pre-irradiation and post-irradiation following neutron exposure up to 0.3 displacements per atom at 600 °C. Irradiation effects were also differentiated from the annealing response of precipitates. Following neutron irradiation, the average Cr 23 C 6 precipitate size reduced, affected by the synergy of nucleation and growth, ballistic dissolution, and inverse coarsening, which was observed at fluences an order of magnitude lower than previously observed. Annealing at 600 °C for 32 h increased the average Cr 23 C 6 precipitate size and decreased the phase fraction, attributed to precipitate coarsening. The precipitate morphology evolution and resultant mechanisms can be utilized to parameterize and validate microstructural models simulating radiation damage or annealing.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Noncontact Flow Rate Using Laser Ultrasonics

Several types of advanced nuclear reactors are cooled with high-temperature liquid metal or molten salt flows. There is a critical need to measure flow velocity in flow channels for test purposes, and eventually in operational reactors. In conventional ultrasonic flow sensors, ultrasonic waves traveling in both the upstream and downstream directions are generated and detected by transducers that must contact the flow channels. A shift in the frequency or transit time between the two ultrasonic waves is measured to determine flow velocity. We describe here an initial effort to apply that sensing concept when the contact transducers are replaced by laser-based generation and detection instrumentation. This noncontact sensing avoids many practical problems associated with contact transducers when implemented on flow channels at high temperature. Laser-based flow monitoring can also be applied to hot-process piping in the geothermal energy, chemical-processing and petroleum-refining industries. Our effort has included theoretical simulation of noncontact laser-based flow monitoring, indicating capability of measuring flow velocities relevant to reactor cooling. It also included a room-temperature experimental demonstration using water as the flow liquid, and indicating capability of measuring flow velocity at a responsivity roughly consistent with simulation predictions. Plans were made for an experimental demonstration at Oregon State University using liquid metal at 110 degrees C.

02 PETROLEUM↗

DOE OSTI2020

Multiscale-Informed Modeling of High Temperature Component Response with Uncertainty Quantification

This report summarizes a joint effort between Argonne National Laboratory, Idaho National Laboratory, and Los Alamos National Laboratory to develop and deploy constitutive models targeted at predicting the life of Grade 91 alloy components subjected to high temperature environments typical of those that structural components in advanced nuclear reactors would experience. Two distinct, but complementary constitutive modeling approaches have been taken here. The first employs a phenomenological viscoplastic model for which parameters have been calibrated based on experimental data for a wide range of Grade 91 alloy that has undergone a variety of processing. A Bayesian approach was used to derive distributions of uncertain parameters for this model based on this data set. The second approach is a reduced order model suitable for engineering-scale analysis that is based on the results of a large set of mesoscale simulations. Mesoscale models allow for the microstructure and composition of a particular alloy to be directly taken into account in the computation of the viscoplastic response, but are computationally expensive, which makes it impractical to directly call those models for the material constitutive response in an engineering-scale simulation. The reduced-order representation of the response of the underlying model used here allows for an engineering-scale model to take into account the characteristics of the underlying microstructure, while only incurring a reasonable computational expense. Both of these approaches have different strengths, and are applicable for different parts of the design/analysis process. The phenomenological models can be readily parameterized based on a set of experimental data for a given class of materials and used for scoping calculations. Once a specific material is chosen and adequately characterized, the reduced order models can accurately predict the response of that specific alloy, and because the models are based on predictive models of the underlying microstructure, they can be used to more confidently predict the response under conditions in regions where there is limited experimental data. Both of these models have been integrated in the Grizzly code, which is used here to perform proof-of-concept uncertainty quantification analyses of a simple component under prototypical conditions. The built- in stochastic analysis capabilities in the MOOSE framework that Grizzly is built on are used here to run large sets of simulations for this uncertainty quantification analysis. As would be expected, because the reduced order models are developed for a much more tightly defined alloy, they predict tighter distributions of the time to failure than the phenomenological models, which are calibrated to a broader set of data. Also important is that these simulations demonstrate that a reduced order modeling approach can be successfully deployed to propagate uncertainties from the material scale to practical engineering-scale component simulations.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

sCO 2 Brayton Energy Conversion Customer Discovery

All energy production systems need efficient energy conversion systems. Current Rankine cycles use water to generate steam at temperatures where efficiency is limited to around 40%. As existing fossil and nuclear power plants are decommissioned due to end of effective life and/or societies’ desire for cleaner generation options, more efficient energy conversion is needed to keep up with increasing electricity demands. Modern energy generation technologies, such as advanced nuclear reactors and concentrated solar, coupled to high efficiency sCO 2 conversion systems provide a solution to efficient, clean energy systems. Leading R&D communities worldwide agree that the successful development of sCO 2 Brayton power cycle technology will eventually bring about large-scale changes to existing multi-billion-dollar global markets and enable power applications not currently possible or economically justifiable. However, all new technologies face challenges in the path to commercialization and the electricity sector is distinctively risk averse. The Sandia sCO 2 Brayton team needs to better understand what the electricity sector needs in terms of new technology risk mitigation, generation efficiency, reliability improvements above current technology, and cost requirements which would make new technology adoption worthwhile. Relying on the R&D community consensus that a sCO 2 power cycle will increase the revenue of the electrical industry, without addressing the electrical industry’s concerns, significantly decreases the potential for adoption at commercial scale. With a clear understanding of the market perspectives on technology adoption, including military, private sector, and utilities customers, the Sandia Brayton Team can resolve industry concerns for smoother development and faster transition to commercialization. An extensive customer discovery process, similar to that executed through the NSF’s I-Corp program, is necessary in order to understand the pain points of the market and articulate the value proposition of Brayton systems in terms that engage decision makers and facilitate commercialization of the technology.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Initial framework for engineering-scale statistical creep-fatigue modeling

This report describes the integration of new solid and interface-cohesive mechanics systems into MOOSE. The purpose of these new systems is to support the ability of MOOSE to run full-field crystal plasticity finite element method simulations of key material processes in high temperature metallic materials. These simulations could be used to help accurately predict the performance of key high temperature structural materials in future advanced nuclear reactor components. Previous work implemented preliminary versions of many of these systems in MOOSE Apps. The current work reports on their integration into the main MOOSE tensor mechanics module along with associated improvements to the basic formulations and numerical implementations. Finally, the report provides an example of the full-field crystal plasticity simulations now possible in MOOSE, including examples of realistic geometries requiring millions of degrees of freedom to resolve the microstructural features and macroscale geometry.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Challenge Problem 1: Preliminary Model Development and Assessment of Flexible Heat Transfer Modeling Approaches

This report presents the modeling progress of a university consortium studying flexible modeling for turbulent heat transfer. In the context of advanced nuclear reactor design, where challenges include non-unity Prandtl fluids, free and mixed convection, and transitional flow, computational fluid dynamics methods are underutilized due to low confidence in modeling approaches and high computational cost. This report evaluates the performance of engineering CFD models in diabatic, buoyant turbulent flow. It finds that all turbulence models including several variants of the k-ε and k-ω models struggle to predict accurate turbulent momentum and heat transfer in such flows. The Nusselt numbers have been compared between the models and the DNS data, where calculations have been performed for each case and trends have shown a good agreement between DNS estimated Nusselt numbers and available correlations as well as experimental data. A novel DNS correlation for high Pr cases as they are transitioning from mixed convection to natural convection has been proposed. While Nusselt number errors relative to DNS range from 20% to 50%, the models capture similar trends to DNS with respect to Nusselt suppression and amplification under varying levels of buoyancy effect. This report also highlights model form error as a significant contributor to CFD predictions and proposes a framework for quantifying model error and improving confidence in CFD calculations. To improve the predictive capability of engineering CFD models, data-driven approaches for turbulence models are investigated. Theoretical frameworks based on the invariant tensor / vector basis neural networks for prediction of Reynolds stresses and turbulent heat fluxes are employed. The models are developed using direct numerical simulations data for forced convection flows of different fluids in vertical planar channel domain. The framework is implemented in spectral element solvers Nek5000 / nekRS and has shown a potential for future development and consideration of mixed convection flows.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Multiphysics Analysis of Load Following and Safety Transients for MicroReactors

The tools developed within the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Nuclear Energy’s Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program aim at providing high fidelity multiphysics modeling capabilities to support design and licensing of various types of advanced nuclear reactors, including the technologies being developed by U.S. microreactor vendors relying on heat pipe and gas-cooled technologies. In FY-2022, the NEAMS Multiphysics Applications team made significant progress both in demonstrating capabilities applied to microreactor problems, and in supporting NEAMS developers.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2022

PELICAN Status Report for Year 2021

The Pressure Drop Experimental Loop for Investigations of Core Assemblies in Advanced Nuclear Reactors, PELICAN, is a novel experimental facility designed and constructed to recreate the prototypic full scale hydraulic flow conditions for the Versatile Test Reactor (VTR) currently under development by the U.S. Department of Energy. To support VTR design efforts, PELICAN is used to replicate VTR’s primary heat transport system (PHTS) in the core assembly region. The measurement objectives for data generated from this test facility are to mimic the prototypic VTR assembly and to meet the validation needs for code calculations and simulations of the reference design for the VTR core. These objectives focus on the need to validate pressure drop results across the various segments of the fuel assembly, including the axial reflectors, fuel, and transition regions, as they relate directly to the pumping power and safety behavior of the reactor. In the following sections, the major milestones for the experimental work performed on PELICAN over the calendar year (CY) 2021 are presented. In the next section, we discuss the assembly and shakedown testing of the facility. In Section 3, an analysis of the errors in the major measurements is performed. In Section 4 and 5 we present the results from the first set of test articles placed inside the loop. The design of the remaining test articles as part of the full assembly are shown in Section 6 and the conclusion and path forward for the following year, CY22 is given in the final section.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Useability and Optimization Improvements in MOOSE

The Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) framework is a foundational capability used by the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program to create over 15 different simulation tools for advanced nuclear reactors. Due to this broad use, improvements to the framework in support of modeling and simulation goals are critical to the program. These improvements can take many forms, including optimization, improved user experience, streamlined application programming interfaces (APIs), parallelism, and new capabilities. The work transcribed in this report was conducted in direct support of the simulation tools and has already been deployed or will be deployed in the coming months. The capabilities were implemented in the same order as they are covered in this report: increased support of face variables, arbitrary spatial and temporal evaluation of material properties, and the addition of a triangular meshing library in libMesh.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

NEAMS Technical Area Support in MOOSE

The Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) framework is a foundational capability used by the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program to create over 15 different simulation tools for advanced nuclear reactors. Due to this ubiquity, improvements to the framework in support of modeling and simulation goals are critical to the program. These improvements can take many forms, including optimization, improved user experience, streamlined application programming interfaces (APIs), parallelism, and new capabilities. The work transcribed in this report was conducted in direct support of the simulation tools and has already been deployed. The capabilities outlined in this report include a factor of 10^4 improvement in dependency resolution speed, sorting of user objects, ability to compute residuals and Jacobians together, transfer fixes, support for the mortar method in finite volume discretizations, addition of generalized advection schemes for fluid simulations, 10^2 speedup in some Griffin simulations due to a new matrix-only solve type, and much more.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

User-oriented Improvements in the MOOSE Framework in Support of Multiphysics Simulation

The Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) framework is a foundational capability used by the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program to create over 15 different simulation tools for advanced nuclear reactors. Due to this ubiquity, improvements to the framework in support of modeling and simulation goals are critical to the program. These improvements can take many forms, including optimization, improved user experience, streamlined application programming interfaces (APIs), parallelism, and new capabilities. The work transcribed in this report was conducted in direct support of the simulation tools and has already been deployed or will be deployed in the coming months. The capabilities were implemented in the same order as they are covered in this report: chainable execution objects or executors, support for transfers between same-level applications in a coupling scheme, support for boundary/subdomain restricted transfers, support for transfers between applications with different coordinate or unit systems, support for MOOSE applications in the NEAMS Workbench, deployment of the MOOSE application of the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) high-performance computing (HPC) OnDemand platform, the addition of a triangular meshing library in libMesh, and increased support of face variables.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

AMMT FY23 HFIR Irradiation Test Matrix – Supported by the Design of a Miniature Bend Bar Irradiation Vehicle

With the continued advancement of additive manufacturing (AM) techniques, interest has grown in the development and qualification of steels produced via these methods for use in the structural components of advanced nuclear reactors. Therefore, it is crucial that the properties of these materials such as the tensile strength and fracture toughness be investigated following neutron irradiation to support their use in industry. To that end, a test plan to irradiate several tensile and bend bar specimens in the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) at Oak Ridge National Laboratory was proposed, along with the development of a new “MINBEN” capsule design that features MBS-1 bend bar specimens that have a larger cross-sectional area than those of previous designs, which allows for higher temperature out-of-pile testing. The specimens include AM 316H stainless steel with wrought 316H and A709 stainless steels for reference, and they will be irradiated at 2 dpa and 10 dpa—corresponding to roughly 1 and 5 cycles at the HFIR midplane—at temperatures of 400°C and 600°C. The MINBEN design was found to be capable of providing specimen test plane average temperatures in the range of 220–660°C for six specimens, with a min-max spread in this temperature of ~40°C and a 95% confidence interval of ~24°C. This analysis shows that the capsule provides an effective vehicle for gathering needed high-temperature fracture toughness data.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Preliminary prediction of long-term aging and creep behavior of AM 316 SS

This report describes the development of initial mechanism models for the long term behavior of additively manufactured (AM), laser powder-bed fusion 316H stainless steel under the conditions expected in future advanced nuclear reactors. These models focus on key features of the material microstructure and response that differ from the conventionally-manufactured wrought material. Specifically, the report describes the development of models to capture the unique response of the AM material focusing on irradiation creep and swelling, the effect of internal stress, for example caused by dislocation structure, on precipitation, and the effect of the AM grain and dislocation structure on the macroscale creep and thermal aging behavior. This single mechanism models represent progress towards a complete, physics-based model for the long-term material behavior as well as elucidate key differences in the AM material behavior, when compared to the better-understood, conventionally-manufactured 316H.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

NEAMS Technical Area Support in MOOSE

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Identification and Evaluation of Thermal Transport Components for Integrated Energy Systems

A proper evaluation and selection of component technologies is a critical aspect in the development of Integrated Energy System (IES). This study aims to investigate the key components and associated technologies required to build high-temperature heat transport systems for IES. Of particular interest is the component technologies needed to design and construct IES that combines advanced nuclear reactors with high-temperature industrial processes. This study particularly delved into knowledge base, evaluation metrics, and state-of-the-art commercial technologies, aiming to facilitate the evaluation and selection process of various thermal transport components. In addition, an evaluation process was proposed in order to assist in the optimal selection of the thermal transport components based on the knowledge base and evaluation metrics investigated through this study.

42 ENGINEERING↗