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At least 307 records · Page 17

Comparative analysis of operational forecasts versus actual weather conditions in airline flight planning: Summary report

The impact of more timely and accurate weather data on airline flight planning with the emphasis on fuel savings is studied. This summary report discusses the results of each of the four major tasks of the study. Task 1 compared airline flight plans based on operational forecasts to plans based on the verifying analyses and found that average fuel savings of 1.2 to 2.5 percent are possible with improved forecasts. Task 2 consisted of similar comparisons but used a model developed for the FAA by SRI International that simulated the impact of ATc diversions on the flight plans. While parts of Task 2 confirm the Task I findings, inconsistency with other data and the known impact of ATC suggests that other Task 2 findings are the result of errors in the model. Task 3 compares segment weather data from operational flight plans with the weather actually observed by the aircraft and finds the average error could result in fuel burn penalties (or savings) of up to 3.6 percent for the average 8747 flight. In Task 4 an in-depth analysis of the weather forecast for the 33 days included in the study finds that significant errors exist on 15 days. Wind speeds in the area of maximum winds are underestimated by 20 to 50 kts., a finding confirmed in the other three tasks.

Keitz, J. F.↗

Intrusions into the lower stratospheric Arctic vortex during the winter of 1991-1992

Investigations of the kinematics of the lower stratospheric Arctic vortex during the winter of 1991-1992 using the contour advection with surgery technique reveal three distinct events in which there was substantial intrusion of midlatitude air into the vortex, in apparent contradiction of the view that the polar vortex constitutes an isolated air mass. Two of these events, in late January and mid-February, were well documented. They were predicted in high-resolution forecasts by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, most clearly in experimental forecasts with reduced diffusion. Direct confirmation of the presence of the intrusions and of their calculated locations was provided by aerosol observations from the airborne differential absorption laser lidar aboard the NASA DC-8, taken as part of the second Airborne Arctic Stratospheric Expedition campaign; aerosol-rich air of midlatitude origin was seen in the expected position of the intrusions. The reality of the February event was also confirmed by in situ measurements from the NASA ER-2. Such events may be significant for the chemical processes taking place within the winter vortex. The intrusions were evidently related to the meteorology of the northern stratosphere during this winter and in particular to persistent tropospheric blocking over the northeastern Atlantic Ocean and western Europe and concomitant ridging into the lower stratospheric vortex in this region. Nevertheless, preliminary investigations have indicated that such events are not uncommon in other northern hemisphere winters, although no such events were found in the southern hemisphere during the Antarctic winter of 1987.

Plumb, R. A.↗

An Overview of Ecological Modeling and Machine Learning Research Within the U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration

In the early 1980 s NASA began research to understand global habitability and quantify the processes and fluxes between the Earth's vegetation and the biosphere. This effort evolved into the Earth Observing System Program which current encompasses 18 platforms and 80 sensors. During this time, the global environmental research community has evolved from a data poor to a data rich research area and is challenged to provide timely use of these new data. This talk will outline some of the data mining research NASA has funded in support for the environmental sciences in the Intelligent Systems project and will give a specific example in ecological forecasting, predicting the land surface properties given nowcasts and weather forecasts, using the Terrestrial Observation and Prediction System (TOPS).

Coughlan, Joseph C.↗

Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) Quarterly Report First Quarter FY-04

This report summarizes the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) activities for the First Quarter of Fiscal Year 2004 (October - December 2003). Tasks reviewed are: (1) Objective Lightning Probability Forecast, (2) Mesonet Temperature and Wind Climatology, (3) Severe Weather Forecast Decision Aid and (4) Anvil Transparency Relationship to Radar Reflectivity

Bauman, William↗

A case study using kinematic quantities derived from a triangle of VHF Doppler wind profilers

Horizontal divergence, relative vorticity, kinematic vertical velocity, and geostrophic and ageostrophic winds are computed from Colorado profiler network data to investigate an upslope snowstorm in northeastern Colorado. Horizontal divergence and relative vorticity are computed using the Gauss and Stokes theorems, respectively. Kinematic vertical velocities are obtained from the surface to 9 km by vertically integrating the continuity equation. The geostrophic and ageostrophic winds are computed by applying a finite differencing technique to evaluate the derivatives in the horizontal equations of motion. Comparison of the synoptic-scale data with the profiler network data reveals that the two datasets are generally consistent. Also, the profiler-derived quantities exhibit coherent vertical and temporal patterns consistent with conceptual and theoretical flow fields of various meteorological phenomena. It is suggested that the profiler-derived quantities are of potential use to weather forecasters in that they enable the dynamic and kinematic interpretation of weather system structure to be made and thus have nowcasting and short-term forecasting value.

Carlson, Catherine A.↗

STS-121: Discovery L-1 Countdown Status Briefing

Bruce Buckingham, NASA Public Affairs, introduces Jeff Spaulding, NASA Test Director; Debbie Hahn, STS-121 Payload Manager; and Kathy Winters, Shuttle Weather Officer. Spaulding gives his opening statement on this one day prior to the launching of the Space Shuttle Discovery. He discusses the following topics: 1) Launch of the Space Shuttle Discovery; 2) Weather; 3) Load over of onboard reactants; 4) Hold time for liquid hydrogen; 5) Stowage of Mid-deck completion; 6) Check-out of onboard and ground network systems; 7) Launch windows; 8) Mission duration; 9) Extravehicular (EVA) plans; 10) Space Shuttle landing day; and 11) Scrub turn-around plans. Hahn presents and discusses a short video of the STS-121 payload flow. Kathy Winters gives her weather forecast for launch. She then presents a slide presentation on the following weather conditions for the Space Shuttle Discovery: 1) STS-121 Tanking Forecast; 2) Launch Forecast; 3) SRB Recovery; 4) CONUS Launch; 5) TAL Launch; 6) 24 Hour Delay; 7) CONUS 24 Hour; 8) TAL 24 Hour; 9) 48 Hour Launch; 10) CONUS 48 Hour; and 11) TAL 48 Hour. The briefing ends with a question and answer period from the media.

Source record↗

Near Real-Time Global Composition Forecasts at 25km Horizontal Resolution

We present a new high-resolution global composition forecast system produced by NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation Office. The NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) model has been expanded to provide global near-real-time 5-day forecasts of atmospheric composition at unprecedented horizontal resolution of 0.25 degrees (~25 km). This composition forecast system (GEOS-CF) system combines the operational GEOS weather forecasting model with the state-of-the-science GEOS-Chem chemistry module (version 12) to provide detailed analysis of a wide range of air pollutants such as ozone, carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, and fine particulate matter (PM2.5). Satellite observations are assimilated into the system for improved representation of weather and smoke.

Knowland, K. Emma↗

Near Real-Time Air Quality Forecasts Using the NASA GEOS Model

We present a new high-resolution global composition forecast system produced by NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation Office. The NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) model has been expanded to provide global near-real-time 5-day forecasts of atmospheric composition at unprecedented horizontal resolution of 0.25 degrees (~25 km). This composition forecast system (GEOS-CF) system combines the operational GEOS weather forecasting model with the state-of-the-science GEOS-Chem chemistry module (version 12) to provide detailed analysis of a wide range of air pollutants such as ozone, carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, and fine particulate matter (PM2.5). Satellite observations are assimilated into the system for improved representation of weather and smoke.

Knowland, K. Emma↗

Near Real-Time Air Quality Forecasts Using the NASA GEOS Model

We present a new high-resolution global composition forecast system produced by NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation Office. The NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) model has been expanded to provide global near-real-time 5-day forecasts of atmospheric composition at unprecedented horizontal resolution of 0.25 degrees (~25 km). This composition forecast system (GEOS-CF) system combines the operational GEOS weather forecasting model with the state-of-the-science GEOS-Chem chemistry module (version 12) to provide detailed analysis of a wide range of air pollutants such as ozone, carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, and fine particulate matter (PM2.5). Satellite observations are assimilated into the system for improved representation of weather and smoke.

Knowland, K. Emma↗

Air Pollution Forecasts Using the NASA GEOS Model: A Unified Tool from Local to Global Scales

We present a new high-resolution global composition forecast system produced by NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation Office. The NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) model has been expanded to provide global near-real-time 5-day forecasts of atmospheric composition at unprecedented horizontal resolution of 0.25 degrees (~25 km). This composition forecast system (GEOS-CF) system combines the operational GEOS weather forecasting model with the state-of-the-science GEOS-Chem chemistry module (version 12) to provide detailed analysis of a wide range of air pollutants such as ozone, carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, and fine particulate matter (PM2.5). Satellite observations are assimilated into the system for improved representation of weather and smoke.

Knowland, K. Emma↗

AIRS Impact on the Analysis and Forecast Track of Tropical Cyclone Nargis in a Global Data Assimilation and Forecasting System

Tropical cyclones in the northern Indian Ocean pose serious challenges to operational weather forecasting systems, partly due to their shorter lifespan and more erratic track, compared to those in the Atlantic and the Pacific. Moreover, the automated analyses of cyclones over the northern Indian Ocean, produced by operational global data assimilation systems (DASs), are generally of inferior quality than in other basins. In this work it is shown that the assimilation of Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) temperature retrievals under partial cloudy conditions can significantly impact the representation of the cyclone Nargis (which caused devastating loss of life in Myanmar in May 2008) in a global DAS. Forecasts produced from these improved analyses by a global model produce substantially smaller track errors. The impact of the assimilation of clear-sky radiances on the same DAS and forecasting system is positive, but smaller than the one obtained by ingestion of AIRS retrievals, possibly due to poorer coverage.

Reale, O.↗

The environmental influence on tropical cyclone precipitation

The intensity, spatial, and temporal changes in precipitation were examined in three North Atlantic hurricanes during 1989 (Dean, Gabrielle, and Hugo) using precipitation estimates made from Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) measurements. In addition, analyses from a barotropic hurricane forecast model and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast model were used to examine the relationship between the evolution of the precipitation in these tropical cyclones and external forcing. The external forcing parameters examined were (1) mean climatological sea surface temperatures, (2) vertical wind shear, (3) environmental tropospheric water vapor flux, and (4) upper-tropospheric eddy relative angular momentum flux convergence. The analyses revealed that (1) the SSM/I precipitation estimates were able to delineate and monitor convective ring cycles similar to those observed with land-based and aircraft radar and in situ measurements; (2) tropical cyclone intensification was observed to occur when these convective rings propagated into the inner core of these systems (within 111 km of the center) and when the precipitation rates increased; (3) tropical cyclone weakening was observed to occur when these inner-core convective rings dissipated; (4) the inward propagation of the outer convective rings coincided with the dissipation of the inner convective rings when they came within 55 km of each other; (5) in regions with the combined warm sea surface temperatures (above 26 C) and low vertical wind shear (less than 5 m/s), convective rings outside the region of strong lower-tropospheric inertial stability could be initiated by strong surges of tropospheric moisture, while convective rings inside the region of strong lower-tropospheric inertial stability could be enhanced by upper-tropospheric eddy relative angular momentum flux convergence.

Rodgers, Edward B.↗

Performance of Nickel-Cadmium Batteries on the POES Series of Weather Satellites

The advanced Television Infrared Observation satellite program is a cooperative effort between the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the United Kingdom, Canada and France, for providing day and night global environmental and associated data. NASA is responsible for procurement launch, and checkout of these spacecraft before transferring them over to NOAA, who operates the spacecraft to support weather forecasting, severe storm tracking, and 'meteorological research by the National Weather Service. These spacecraft with all weather monitoring instruments imposed challenging requirements for the onboard electrical power subsystem (EPS). This paper provides first a brief overview of the overall power subsystem, followed by a description of batteries. A unique power subsystem design which provides 'tender-loving-care' to these batteries is highlighted. This is followed by the on-orbit maintenance and performance data of the batteries since launch.

Rao, Gopalakrishna M.↗

Design and Flight Performance of NOAA-K Spacecraft Batteries

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) operates the Polar Operational Environmental Satellite (POES) spacecraft (among others) to support weather forecasting, severe storm tracking, and meteorological research by the National Weather Service (NWS). The latest in the POES series of spacecraft, named as NOAA-KLMNN', one is in orbit and four more are in various phases of development. The NOAA-K spacecraft was launched on May 13, 1998. Each of these spacecraft carry three Nickel-Cadmium batteries designed and manufactured by Lockheed Martin. The battery, which consists of seventeen 40 Ah cells manufactured by SAFT, provides the spacecraft power during the ascent phase, orbital eclipse and when the power demand is in excess of the solar array capability. The NOAA-K satellite is in a 98 degree inclination, 7:30AM ascending node orbit. In this orbit the satellite experiences earth occultation only 25% of the year. This paper provides a brief overview of the power subsystem, followed by the battery design and qualification, the cell life cycle test data, and the performance during launch and in orbit.

Rao, Gopalakrishna M.↗

Performance of Nickel-Cadmium Batteries on the GOES I-K Series of Weather Satellites

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) operates the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) spacecraft (among others) to support weather forecasting, severe storm tracking, and meteorological research by the National Weather Service (NWS). The latest in the GOES series consists of 5 spacecraft (originally named GOES I-M), three of which are in orbit and two more in development. Each of five spacecraft carry two Nickel-Cadmium batteries, with batteries designed and manufactured by Space Systems Loral (SS/L) and cells manufactured by Gates Aerospace Batteries (sold to SAFT in 1993). The battery, which consists of 28 cells with a 12 Ah capacity, provides the spacecraft power needs during the ascent phase and during the semi-annual eclipse seasons lasting for approximately 45 days each. The maximum duration eclipses are 72 minutes long which result in a 60 percent depth of discharge (DOD) of the batteries. This paper provides a description of the batteries, reconditioning setup, DOD profile during a typical eclipse season, and flight performance from the 3 launched spacecraft (now GOES 8, 9, and 10) in orbit.

Singhal, Sat P.↗

Performance of Nickel-Cadmium Batteries on the GOES 1-K Series of Weather Satellites

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) operates the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) spacecraft (among others) to support weather forecasting, severe storm tracking, and meteorological research by the National Weather Service (NWS). The latest in the GOES series consists of five spacecraft (originally named GOES 1-M), three of which are in orbit and and two more in development. Each of the five spacecraft carries two Nickel-Cadmium battery, with batteries designed by Space Systems Loral (SS/L) and cells manufactured by Gates Aerospace Batteries (sold to SAFT in 1993). The battery, which consists of 28 cells with a 12 Ah capacity, provides the spacecraft power needs during the ascent phase and during the semi-annual eclipse seasons lasting for approximately 45 days each. The maximum duration eclipses are 72 minutes long which result in a 60 percent depth of discharge (DOD) of the batteries. This paper provides a description of the batteries, reconditioning setup, DOD profile during a typical eclipse season, and flight performance from the three launched spacecraft (now GOES 8, 9, and 10) in orbit.

Singhal, Sat P.↗

Design and Flight Performance of NOAA-K Spacecraft Batteries

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) operates the Polar Operational Environmental Satellite (POES) spacecraft (among others) to support weather forecasting, severe storm tracking, and meteorological research by the National Weather Service (NWS). The latest in the POES series of spacecraft, named as NOAA-KLMNN, is in orbit and four more are in various phases of development. The NOAA-K spacecraft was launched on May 13, 1998. Each of these spacecraft carry three Nickel-Cadmium batteries designed and manufactured by Lockheed Martin. The battery, which consists of seventeen 40 Ah cells manufactured by SAFT, provides the spacecraft power during the ascent phase, orbital eclipse and when the power demand is in excess of the solar array capability. The NOAA-K satellite is in a 98 degree inclination, 7:30AM ascending node orbit. In this orbit the satellite experiences earth occultation only 25% of the year. This paper provides a brief overview of the power subsystem, followed by the battery design and qualification, the cell life cycle test data, and the performance during launch and in orbit.

Rao, Gopalakrishna M.↗