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At least 307 records · Page 17

Numerical Model Development of a Variable-Geometry Attenuator Wave Energy Converter: Preprint

Because the wave energy industry is still in its infancy, an optimal design for wave energy converters (WECs) has yet to be established; more work is needed to explore various cost reduction pathways. The primary cost-reduction pathway considered for this work is the optimization of the geometric profile on an attenuator WEC to maximize power production while, at the same time, minimizing capital expenditures through the use of variable-geometry modules. In this investigation, the variable geometry modules consist of inflatable bags placed on either side of a base central steel cylinder that would be inflated in low moderate sea states to maximize power capture and then deflated in moderate-extreme sea states to minimize wave loading. The numerical model and simulation of the attenuator WEC were developed and completed using WEC-Sim, which is an open-source code that is appropriate for use in evaluating the dynamic response of the different WEC models in operational seas. The power production estimates were obtained from the Wave Energy Prize (WEP) sea states, which are representative of U. S. deployment sites, to calculate the average climate capture width that is used in the WEP ACE calculation. Preliminary capital expenditure costs were obtained assuming the base central steel cylinder mass was equal to the fluid displaced mass, minus the mass of the variable-geometry bags. The additional weight required to offset the additional buoyancy from the variable-geometry bags was assumed to come from the addition of seawater ballast. The variable-geometry attenuator model was found to have a similar power capture efficiency as a fixed-body model, but is expected to have a lower characteristic capital expenditure given its more streamlined profile, which demonstrates that variable-geometry modules may provide a realistic cost-reduction pathway to help design a more cost-competitive WEC.

50 EE - Wind and Water Power Program - Water (EE-4↗

Numerical Model Development of a Variable-Geometry Attenuator Wave Energy Converter

Because the wave energy industry is still in its infancy, an optimal design for wave energy converters (WECs) has yet to be established; more work is needed to explore various cost-reduction pathways. The primary cost-reduction pathway considered for this work is the optimization of the geometric profile on an attenuator WEC to maximize power production while, at the same time, minimizing capital expenditures through the use of variable-geometry modules. In this investigation, the variable-geometry modules consist of inflatable bags placed on either side of a base central steel cylinder that would be inflated in low-moderate sea states to maximize power capture and then deflated in moderate-extreme sea states to minimize wave loading. The numerical model and simulation of the attenuator WEC were developed and completed using WEC-Sim, which is an open-source code that is appropriate for use in evaluating the dynamic response of the different WEC models in operational seas. The power production estimates were obtained from the Wave Energy Prize (WEP) sea states, which are representative of U. S. deployment sites, to calculate the average climate capture width that is used in the WEP ACE calculation. Preliminary capital expenditure costs were obtained assuming the base central steel cylinder mass was equal to the fluid displaced mass, minus the mass of the variable-geometry bags. The additional weight required to offset the additional buoyancy from the variable-geometry bags was assumed to come from the addition of seawater ballast. The variable-geometry attenuator model was found to have a similar power capture efficiency as a fixed-body model, but is expected to have a lower characteristic capital expenditure given its more streamlined profile, which demonstrates that variable-geometry modules may provide a realistic cost-reduction pathway to help design a more cost-competitive WEC.

50 EE - Wind and Water Power Program - Water (EE-4↗

Persistent urban heat

Urban surface and near-surface air temperatures are known to be often higher than their rural counterparts, a phenomenon now labeled as the urban heat island effect. However, whether the elevated urban temperatures are more persistent than rural temperatures at timescales commensurate to heat waves has not been addressed despite its importance for human health. Combining numerical simulations by a global climate model with a surface energy balance theory, it is demonstrated here that urban surface and near-surface air temperatures are significantly more persistent than their rural counterparts in cities dominated by impervious materials with large thermal inertia. Further use of these materials will result in even stronger urban temperature persistence, especially for tropical cities. The present findings help pinpoint mitigation strategies that can simultaneously ameliorate the larger magnitude and stronger persistence of urban temperatures.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Outcomes of the DOE Workshop on Atmospheric Challenges for the Wind Energy Industry

The U.S. Department of Energy-funded Mesoscale-to-Microscale Coupling (MMC) project team planned and conducted a virtual Workshop on Atmospheric Challenges for the Wind Energy Industry on October 19 and 20, 2020. The goal of the workshop was to forge a dialog with the community, including industry representatives, on how modeling tools are currently being used, the present active atmospheric modeling research in support of wind energy, and required advancements in capabilities and technology to continue to advance wind energy deployment. The workshop was planned in collaboration with an industry advisory panel that included representatives from wind power plant developers, turbine manufacturers, and companies that provide resource assessment and forecasting services. The format of the workshop included panels from government research sponsors, visionaries from industry, and mixed panels of researchers discussing research status and needs. A shared keynote presentation from the Technical University of Denmark experts anchored the second day of the workshop. An emphasis was placed on understanding the research needs in the offshore environment. In addition, breakout opportunities were provided each day. On the first day, the breakout discussions addressed predesigned questions configured to elicit participants’ thoughts on needed research directions. The second-day breakouts treated three important technical topics through a combination of presentations and group conversations. Each workshop participant chose their breakout preference from among downscaling details, modeling for turbines, and using artificial intelligence for atmospheric modeling. The discussions were robust and productive. The outcomes of the workshop include archiving a series of recommendations from industry and the research community on research directions required to further advance wind energy deployment. Discussions confirmed the need for high-fidelity modeling but that there are specific areas of applicability and other areas where the time and cost of computation is prohibitive. In those cases, the high-fidelity models can inform low-order models that are more practical for real-time or widely deployed applications. Industry must consider the financial cost of performing more expensive modeling approaches, but industry engineers and researchers are using these approaches where there appears to be a return on investment. An emerging type of low-order model is based on machine learning (ML). Participants confirmed that there are many atmospheric phenomena that need to be modeled better, including low-level jets, cold air outbreaks, land-sea induced circulations, diurnal variability, thin stable boundary layers, dynamic changes such as from frontal passage, interaction of wakes and blockage, and more. For the offshore environment, there is wide agreement that some level of ocean-wave-atmospheric coupling is necessary to capture variations in rotor-level winds needed to plan and operate offshore wind plants. Another recurring recommendation is that more observations are needed, particularly for the offshore environment. Those observations should consider the needs for model improvement, both for physically based models and for ML models. Observations must capture atmospheric profiles of variables that are important to understanding and modeling atmospheric and oceanic phenomena that impact boundary layer winds. Models must be validated with data and the uncertainty quantified, particularly those that are sensitive to initial and boundary conditions. Finally, a repeated request was to consider the holistic needs of hybrid plants of wind, solar, and storage resources because those types of plants are likely to be the wave of the future. In addition, industry wishes to understand impacts of the resource under a changing climate for long-term planning.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Interannual variability of the ocean atmosphere system

Feedback mechanisms between the ocean and atmosphere are discussed. The influence of these mechanisms on the interannual variability of the atmosphere and on climatic fluctuations are examined. Large sea surface temperature anomalies which influence weather patterns by influencing planetary long waves are discussed.

Source record↗

IceCube: Spaceflight Demonstration of 883-GHz Cloud Radiometer for Future Science

Cloud ice play important roles in Earth’s climate and weather systems through their interactions with atmospheric radiation, dynamics, energy and precipitation processes. Submillimeter (submm) wave remote sensing at 200-1000 GHz is able to provide the sensitivity not covered by visible (VIS)/infrared (IR) and low-frequency microwave (MW) sensors (10-183 GHz), and measure cloud ice in the middle-to-upper troposphere. The IceCube 883-GHz cloud radiometer is the latest of NASA’s efforts to advance the technology readiness level (TRL) of submm-wave receiver technology for future compact, low-cost implementation of Earth observing systems. Emerging CubeSat opportunities allow a fast-track development and spaceflight demonstration of IceCube on a 3-U CubeSat. Funded by NASA’s In-Space Validation of Earth Science Technologies (InVEST) program and Science Mission Directorate (SMD), IceCube is the first CubeSat developed and flown by Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) in 2.5 years, using commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) components and subsystems. It was successfully released from International Space Station (ISS) in May 2017, acquired 15-month science data and produced the first global map of the 883-GHz cloud ice. It achieved all mission objectives and provided a pathway for future cost-effective cloud observations from CubeSat constellation.

Submm-wave remote sensing↗

Hydrostatic and Non‐Hydrostatic Baroclinic Instability in the Dynamical Core of the DOE Global Climate Model

Abstract The dynamical core of the Department of Energy global climate model is used to understand the role of non‐hydrostatic dynamics in the simulation of dry and moist baroclinic waves. To reduce computational cost, the Diabatic Acceleration and REscaling approach is adopted. Scale analysis and numerical simulations suggest that the model solution is not distorted by the change of spherical metric terms due to the change of Earth radius, neither are the inter‐scale interactions strongly altered as indicated by the analysis of spectral flux. Compared with hydrostatic simulations, the onset of baroclinic instability is delayed under non‐hydrostatic dynamics as the associated weaker vertical motions tend to increase the critical wavelength and narrow the range of waves that can be baroclinically unstable. During the development of baroclinic waves, non‐hydrostatic dynamics tends to induce vertical motions in the upper troposphere, accelerating the eastward propagation of upper‐level ridges through their impact on local vorticity tendency. These processes reduce the westward tilt of the vertical ridge axes and suppress the conversion of mean flow available potential energy to eddy kinetic energy, leading to weaker baroclinic eddies than in hydrostatic simulations. The contrasts between hydrostatic and non‐hydrostatic settings hold in supplemental experiments that vary the background flow Rossby number, the amount of water vapor content and vertical resolution. We also find that mesoscale and smaller‐scale activities can be considerably under‐represented when the vertical resolution is limited to that typically used in global climate models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

America Resilient Climate Conference

On April 14, 2021, scientists, policymakers, and other interested parties from research institutes, academia, and other organizations gathered together virtually at the America Resilient Climate Conference to discuss one of the most pressing challenges of the 21st century: building resilience to climate change. Climate change affects the security and health of all Americans. Coastal areas are enduring more frequent and severe flooding due to sea level rise and storm surge; western states and Alaska have experienced increasingly devastating wildfires, driven in part by hotter, drier, and longer fire seasons; and communities across the nation have suffered through extreme precipitation events and heat waves. Even if emissions are reduced aggressively in the near future, the world—and the United States—will continue to feel the impacts of climate change for decades to come, due to the continued accumulation of greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere. Consequently, it is essential to act now to protect natural and human assets from the gradual—as well as extreme—impacts of a changing climate. To build resilient communities, leaders and community members need science-based information about the potential impacts climate change will have decades into the future and for specific regions. Therefore, it is essential to develop high-resolution climate models that can project both various climate impacts and the interactions between earth system variables and humans down to regional and local scales. Collecting and curating data for such models and their computational requirements poses large challenges. In the future, artificial intelligence will be needed to increase their accuracy and reduce associated uncertainties. The investments in Earth system science and artificial intelligence made by the U.S. Department of Energy and other federal entities will be essential in addressing these challenges.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Data-driven global ocean modeling for seasonal to decadal prediction

Accurate modeling of ocean dynamics is crucial for enhancing our understanding of complex ocean circulation processes, predicting climate variability, and tackling challenges posed by climate change. Although great efforts have been made to improve traditional numerical models, predicting global ocean variability over multiyear scales remains challenging. Here, we propose ORCA-DL (Oceanic Reliable foreCAst via Deep Learning), a data-driven three-dimensional ocean model for seasonal to decadal prediction of global ocean dynamics. ORCA-DL accurately simulates the three-dimensional structure of global ocean dynamics with high physical consistency and outperforms state-of-the-art numerical models in capturing extreme events, including El Niño–Southern Oscillation and upper ocean heat waves. Moreover, ORCA-DL stably emulates ocean dynamics at decadal timescales, demonstrating its potential even for skillful decadal predictions and climate projections. Our results demonstrate the high potential of data-driven models for providing efficient and accurate global ocean modeling and prediction.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

Polarized Observations of Falling Snow from IMPACTS

The polarization of electromagnetic waves (radio waves and light) provides useful information on the dynamics and structure of precipitating storms. Polarization results from aligned precipitation particles interacting with the electromagnetic waves. This orientation is related to the dynamics of the weather system, and the orientation effects the radiative properties of the clouds (which is related to climate sensivity and feedbacks). We use observations from the Investigation of Microphysics and Precipitation for Atlantic Coast-Threatening Storms (IMPACTS), a NASA field campaign aiming to understand winter storms that regularly impact the East Coast of the United States, to understand the relationship between properties of snowstorms and polarization of millimeter waves (89 GHz and 166 GHz). We see that height and intensity are strong indicators of the polarization signatures observed in these systems.

Ian S Adams↗

Convective and Wave Signatures in Ozone Profiles Over the Equatorial Americas: Views from TC4 (2007) and SHADOZ

During the months of July-August 2007 NASA conducted a research campaign called the Tropical Composition, Clouds and Climate Coupling (TC4) experiment. Vertical profiles of ozone were measured daily using an instrument known as an ozonesonde, which is attached to a weather balloon and launch to altitudes in excess of 30 km. These ozone profiles were measured over coastal Las Tablas, Panama (7.8N, 80W) and several times per week at Alajuela, Costa Rica (ION, 84W). Meteorological systems in the form of waves, detected most prominently in 100- 300 in thick ozone layer in the tropical tropopause layer, occurred in 50% (Las Tablas) and 40% (Alajuela) of the soundings. These layers, associated with vertical displacements and classified as gravity waves ("GW," possibly Kelvin waves), occur with similar stricture and frequency over the Paramaribo (5.8N, 55W) and San Cristobal (0.925, 90W) sites of the Southern Hemisphere Additional Ozonesondes (SHADOZ) network. The gravity wave labeled layers in individual soundings correspond to cloud outflow as indicated by the tracers measured from the NASA DC-8 and other aircraft data, confirming convective initiation of equatorial waves. Layers representing quasi-horizontal displacements, referred to as Rossby waves, are robust features in soundings from 23 July to 5 August. The features associated with Rossby waves correspond to extra-tropical influence, possibly stratospheric, and sometimes to pollution transport. Comparison of Las Tablas and Alajuela ozone budgets with 1999-2007 Paramaribo and San Cristobal soundings shows that TC4 is typical of climatology for the equatorial Americas. Overall during TC4, convection and associated meteorological waves appear to dominate ozone transport in the tropical tropopause layer.

Thompson, Anne M.↗

Performance Evaluation of Weather@home2 Simulations over West African Region

Weather and climate forecasting, using climate models, have become essential tools and life-savers in the West African region; in spite of the fact that climate models do not fully comply with attributes of forecast qualities—RASAP: reliability, association, skill, accuracy, and precision. The objective of this paper is to quantitatively evaluate, in comparison to CRU and ERA5 datasets, the RASAP compliance-level of the weather@home2 modeling system (w@h2). Findings from some statistical evaluations show that, to a moderately significant extent, w@h2 model provides useful information during the monsoon seasons; skills to capture the Little Dry Season over the Guinea zone; predictive skills for the onset season; ability to reproduce all the annual characteristics of the surface maximum air temperature over the region; as well as skill to detect heat waves that usually ravage West Africa during the boreal spring. The model displays traces of attributes that are needed for seasonal climate predictions and applications. Deficiencies in the quantitative reproducibility point to the facts that the model does provide a reliability akin to that of regional climate models. This paper further furnishes a prospective user with information on whether the model might be “useful or not” for a particular application.

West Africa↗

Insights into ENSO Diversity from an Intermediate Coupled Model. Part I: Uniqueness and Sensitivity of the ENSO Mode

Abstract The basic dynamics of the spatiotemporal diversity for El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has been the subject of extensive research and, while several hypotheses have been proposed, remains elusive. One promising line of studies suggests that the observed eastern Pacific (EP) and central Pacific (CP) ENSO may originate from two coexisting leading ENSO modes. We show that the coexistence of unstable EP-like and CP-like modes in these studies arises from contaminated linear stability analysis due to unnoticed numerical scheme caveats. In this two-part study, we further investigate the dynamics of ENSO diversity within a Cane–Zebiak-type model. We first revisit the linear stability issue to demonstrate that only one ENSO-like linear leading mode exists under realistic climate conditions. This single leading ENSO mode can be linked to either a coupled recharge-oscillator (RO) mode favored by the thermocline feedback or a wave-oscillator (WO) mode favored by the zonal advective feedback at the weak air–sea coupling end. Strong competition between the RO and WO modes for their prominence in shaping this ENSO mode into a generalized RO mode makes it sensitive to moderate changes in these two key feedbacks. Modulations of climate conditions yield corresponding modulations in spatial pattern, amplitude, and period associated with this ENSO mode. However, the ENSO behavior undergoing this linear climate condition modulations alone does not seem consistent with the observed ENSO diversity, suggesting the inadequacy of linear dynamics in explaining ENSO diversity. A nonlinear mechanism for ENSO diversity will be proposed and discussed in Part II.

Geng, Licheng↗

Observationally driven Resource Assessment with CoupLEd models (ORACLE)

This project seeks to carry out a multifaceted analysis combining buoy observations, machine learning, turbulence, satellite data and high-resolution modeling. Our analyses will investigate air–sea interaction physics governing the variation of the winds with height and influence of clouds, uncertainty in coupled ocean-wave-atmosphere mesoscale models to capture certain key atmospheric phenomenon observed over the U.S. West Coast, impact of climate change, and the fidelity with which resource characterization models describe the range of observed offshore wind conditions. This project will focus its efforts on characterizing and assessing the atmospheric and oceanographic conditions along the U.S. West Coast.

Wind, Energy↗

Linear trends in Northern Hemisphere tropospheric geopotential height and temperature patterns

Gridded National Meteorological Center data for 500 mb geopotential height and 300-500 mb and 500-700 mb thickness for the period 1951-1978 are subjected to linear trend analyses. The analyses are carried out for each calendar month. Significant geographical and seasonal distributions of cooling and warming patterns are found. An atmospheric cooling trend over the North Pacific during the winter months is seen in a region where oceanic cooling has also been observed, but planetary-wave adjustments rather than ocean-atmosphere feedback mechanisms appear to be dominant in the atmospheric cooling on climatic time scales. Consistently large temperature trends are also seen over the continent of Asia. Comparisons between thickness trends in the layer 300-500 mb and those in the layer 500-700 mb reveal pronounced patterns of stabilization and destabilization.

Reiter, E. R.↗

Top-of-the-Atmosphere Shortwave Flux Estimation from UV Observations: An Empirical Approach

Measurements of top of the atmosphere (TOA) radiation are essential to the understanding of Earth's climate. Clouds, aerosols, and ozone (0,) are among the most important agents impacting the Earth's short-wave (SW) radiation budget. There are several sensors in orbit that provide independent information related to the Earth's SW radiation budget. Having coincident information from these sensors is important for understanding their potential contributions. The A-train constellation of satellites provides a unique opportunity to analyze near-simultaneous data from several of these sensors. They include the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI), on the NASA Aura satellite, that makes TOA hyper-spectral measurements from ultraviolet (UV) to visible wavelengths, and Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) instrument, on the NASA Aqua satellite, that makes broadband measurements in both the long- and short-wave. OMI measurements have been successfully utilized to derive the information on trace gases (e.g., 0 1, NO" and SO,), clouds, and absorbing aerosols. TOA SW fluxes are estimated using a combination of data from CERES and the Aqua MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). In this paper, OMI retrievals of cloud/aerosol parameters and 0 1 have been collocated with CERES TOA SW flux retrievals. We use this collocated data to develop a neural network that estimates TOA shortwave flux globally over ocean using data from OMI and meteorological analyses. This input data include the effective cloud fraction, cloud optical centroid pressure (OCP), total-column 0" and sun-satellite viewing geometry from OMI as well as wind speed and water vapor from the Goddard Earth Observing System 5 Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (GEOS-5 MERRA) along with a climatology of chlorophyll content. We train the neural network using a subset of CERES retrievals of TOA SW flux as the target output (truth) and withhold a different subset of the CERES data to be used for validation.

Gupta, P.↗

The 2019 Southern Hemisphere Stratospheric Polar Vortex Weakening and Its Impacts

This study offers an overview of the low-frequency (i.e., monthly to seasonal) evolution, dynamics, predictability, and surface impacts of a rare Southern Hemisphere (SH) stratospheric warming that occurred in austral spring 2019. Between late August to mid- September 2019, the stratospheric circumpolar westerly jet weakened rapidly, and Antarctic stratospheric temperatures rose dramatically. The deceleration of the vortex at 10 hPa was as drastic as that of the first ever observed major sudden stratospheric warming in the SH during 2002, while the mean Antarctic warming over the course of spring 2019 broke the previous record of 2002 by ~50% in the mid-stratosphere. This event was preceded by a poleward shift of the SH polar night jet in the uppermost stratosphere in early winter, which was then followed by record-strong planetary wave-one activity propagating upward from the troposphere in August that acted to dramatically weaken the polar vortex throughout the depth of the stratosphere. The weakened vortex winds and elevated temperatures moved downward to the surface from mid-October to December, promoting a record strong swing of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) to its negative phase. This record-negative SAM appeared to be a primary driver of the extreme hot and dry conditions over subtropical eastern Australia that accompanied the severe wildfires that occurred in late spring 2019. State-of-the-art dynamical seasonal forecast systems skillfully predicted the significant vortex weakening of spring 2019 and subsequent development of negative SAM from as early as late July.

Antarctic Oscillation↗

Process drivers, inter-model spread, and a path forward: What do we know about Arctic Amplification?

Over the recent decades, rapid changes have been observed in the Arctic resulting from enhanced surface warming in the Arctic relative to the rest of the globe, a phenomenon called Arctic Amplification. While surface-based amplification of Arctic warming in response to increased CO2 has been established. The driving mechanisms, relevant processes, and the relative roles of local and remote mechanisms to Arctic Amplification remain unclear. Research over the last decade has made it clear that coupling between the atmosphere, sea ice, and ocean play a key role in Arctic Amplification. This presentation summarizes recent research on the fundamental role that atmosphere-sea ice-ocean interactions and energy exchanges play in driving Arctic Amplification, how these interactions manifest as radiative climate feedbacks, and how these processes influence the differences in the projected Arctic climate change across CMIP5 and 6. We hypothesize that models that simulate larger warming do so by generating a larger local atmospheric circulation response that more effectively redistributes energy drawn from the ocean in sea ice retreat regions Arctic-wide and contributing to a larger increase in downwelling long wave radiation. This process is also fundamentally tied to the Arctic lapse rate feedback.

Arctic amplification↗