Seasonal Forecast of the Carbon and Water Dynamics on Land
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Eunjee Lee↗
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Modeling Carbon and Water Dynamics on Land and Its Applications
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Eunjee Lee↗
Introduction to our COSPAR-Sponsored Session: Space-Observation Contributions Supporting Climate Action
• The challenge for us at COSPAR in putting this program together was that we are primarily a scientifically oriented organization. “Climate Action,” as it is often expressed publicly, tends to be the domain of “activists.” As scientists, on the other hand, to retain our credibility – and for the contributions we make to continue carrying the weight of scientific truth – it is critical that we remain even-handed in our analysis and our reporting of results. • COSPAR is the Committee on Space Research, and fortunately, much of what we observe from space bears objectively on the attributes of the Earth System and how it is evolving. We can measure from space changes in the cryosphere, in the oceans, the land surface and the atmosphere, frequently, on a global scale, to a degree that is generally not possible any other way. And we have been making such observations, in increasing detail, scope, and precision, for about 60 years. • These data help us characterize the current state and identify patterns of change in the Earth System that allow us to infer processes and to improve climate models. With modeling we can test and refine our inferences, and make some predictions. The results can then inform policy and decision-makers, the public in general, as well as those taking direct action. • So, for today’s session we have invited 7 15-minute presentations spanning a broad range of climate-related topics, covering observations from space that can inform climate-related decision-making – from sea-ice extent and sea-level rise, to land surface properties and land-based water resources, to interactions between land or water surfaces and the atmosphere, to severe events in the atmosphere itself. • We begin with an overview of the observations contributed by one of the premier space agencies, given by NASA Chief Scientist and Senior Climate Advisor Dr. Kate Calvin, which will be followed by talks on what we are learning about specific attributes of the Earth System from space-based measurements that can inform climate-related policy and action.
Ralph Kahn↗
Trade and Climate Mitigation Interactions Create Agro–Economic Opportunities With Social and Environmental Trade–Offs in Latin America and the Caribbean
The Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) region plays key roles in both meeting global agricultural demands and maintaining carbon sinks due to its abundant land and water resources. In this study we use the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) to evaluate the opportunities and challenges posed by two global-scale drivers: agricultural market integration (i.e., reduction of trade barriers) and land-based climate mitigation policy. We evaluate their potential individual and combined impacts on agricultural production and trade revenues across LAC’s economies through mid-century, as well as the resulting impacts on agricultural consumers and integrated land-water-climate systems across the region’s diverse sub-regions. Increased global market integration results in increased agricultural production and trade revenues for many LAC economies driven by their evolving comparative advantages. Climate mitigation measures on CO 2 and non-CO 2 greenhouse gases increase revenues due to increased agricultural prices from land competition and emissions abatement. The combined outcomes from both drivers are complex and sometimes non-linear, highlighting the importance of understanding the interactions between multiple drivers. Our results show that increased agricultural production and trade opportunities pose significant trade-offs that require careful multi-sectoral planning, such as emissions reduction challenges, potential loss of livestock production when pursuing land-based climate mitigation strategies, increased consumer expenditures, and changes in land-use or water withdrawals, resulting in deforestation or water scarcity pressures. There is considerable heterogeneity in economic and environmental outcomes across LAC sub-regions and agricultural commodities, illustrating the value of considering outcomes at finer scales.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Observed Land Impacts on Clouds, Water Vapor, and Rainfall at Continental Scales
How do the continents affect large-scale hydrological cycles? How important can one continent be to the climate system? To address these questions, 4-years of National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) observations, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) observations, and the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) global precipitation analysis, were used to assess the land impacts on clouds, rainfall, and water vapor at continental scales. At these scales, the observations illustrate that continents are integrated regions that enhance the seasonality of atmospheric and surface hydrological parameters. Specifically, the continents of Eurasia and North America enhance the seasonality of cloud optical thickness, cirrus fraction, rainfall, and water vapor. Over land, both liquid water and ice cloud effective radii are smaller than over oceans primarily because land has more aerosol particles. In addition, different continents have similar impacts on hydrological variables in terms of seasonality, but differ in magnitude. For example, in winter, North America and Eurasia increase cloud optical thickness to 17.5 and 16, respectively, while in summer, Eurasia has much smaller cloud optical thicknesses than North America. Such different land impacts are determined by each continent s geographical condition, land cover, and land use. These new understandings help further address the land-ocean contrasts on global climate, help validate global climate model simulated land-atmosphere interactions, and help interpret climate change over land.
Jin, Menglin↗
Observed Land Impacts on Clouds, Water Vapor, and Rainfall at Continental Scales
How do the continents affect large-scale hydrological cycles? How important can one continent be to the climate system? To address these questions, five years of National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) observations, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) observations, and the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) global precipitation analysis, were used to assess the land impacts on clouds, ~ainfall, and water vapor at continental scales. At these scales, Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) and continentally averaged analyses illustrate that continents as integrated regions enhance the seasonality of atmospheric and surface hydrological parameters. Specifically, the continents of Eurasia and North America enhance the seasonality of cloud optical thickness, cirrus fraction, rainfall, and water vapor. Over land, both liquid water and ice cloud effective radii are smaller than over oceans, primarily because land has more aerosol particles. In addition, different continents have similar impacts on hydrological variables in terms of seasonality, but differ in magnitude. For example, in winter, North America and Eurasia increase cloud optical thickness to 17.5 and 16, respectively, while in summer, Eurasia has much smaller cloud optical thicknesses than North An1erica. Such different land impacts are determined by each continent's geographical condition, land cover, and land use. These new understandings help further address the land-ocean contrasts on global climate, help validate global climate model simulated land-atmosphere interactions, and shed light on interpreting climate change over land.
Jin, Menglin↗
Reusable Reentry Satellite (RRS): Recovery tradeoff study
The main objectives of the Recovery Tradeoff Study were as follows: (1) to determine whether a land or water recovery best suits RRS system requirements; (2) what type of terminal recovery system is best suited for the RRS; and (3) what are the recovery access timelines after system landing. Based on the trade parameters and evaluation criteria used in this study, the land-landing configuration has an advantage over the water-landing configuration. It is recommended that a land-landing configuration be developed assuming WSMR as the landing site. It is also recommended that natural orbits be used for low inclination missions and any orbit adjustments for landing site targeting be performed at the end of the mission. Near-integer orbits should be used for high inclination missions and allow orbital decay to precess the ground track over the landing site range.
Source record↗
Spanning the Nexus: Integrated Energy Research on Agriculture & Water Challenges
This presentation will explore the land, food, water, and energy implications of changing energy systems. With an increase in solar development, there are potential conflicts between land use for solar and agricultural. Under the DOE’s InSPIRE project, researchers are gathering data and performing experiments for the co-location of solar development and the agricultural production of crops, pollinator habitat, and grazing. Initial findings from this project highlight mutual benefits for both farmers and the PV installation themselves, all while providing an avenue to reduce land use conflicts. Also, in this presentation, the intersection of water and energy systems will be explored. Energy production requires water and water treatment and transport requires energy. This presentation will highlight past work examining oil and gas water use and detail upcoming water treatment research within the National Water Alliance for Innovation (NAWI).
agriculture↗
Hawaii Water Resources: Monitoring the Impact of Land-Based Sources of Pollution on Water Quality Along the Coast of West Maui, Hawai'i, to Assess Coral Reef Condition
West Maui is at risk of losing ecosystem services provided by coral reefs due to land-based sources of pollution (LBSP). In 2011, the US Coral Reef Task Force (USCRTF) identified the West Maui watershed as a priority watershed (along with its sub-watersheds of Wahikuli, Honokōwai, Kahana, Honokahua, and Honolua) after decades of coral decline, giving rise to the multi-agency West Maui Ridge to Reef (R2R) Initiative. The DEVELOP Hawai’i Water Resources team partnered with the R2R Initiative and the Hawai’i Department of Land and Natural Resources Division of Aquatic Resources (DLNR-DAR) to address the need for better watershed management practices. The team provided the partners with a Google Earth Engine tool that displays land use and land cover changes (LULCC) in the five watersheds and detects near-shore turbidity, chlorophyll-a (chl-a), and sea surface temperature using Landsat 4 Thematic Mapper (TM), Landsat 5 TM, Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+), Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), and Aqua MODIS. Team members used ancillary data provided by the R2R Initiative and the USGS Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center (PCMSC) to validate satellite parameter values. The land cover analysis captured a general trend of increasing impervious cover and decreasing vegetated cover from 1989 to 2019; however, the extent of this change varied between each watershed. This analysis, coupled with the tool, can help project partners continually monitor terrestrial and marine patterns associated with coral decline.
Water Resources↗
Improving Brightness Temperature Measurements Near Coastal Areas
The Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission was designed to acquire and combine L-band radar and radiometer measurements for the estimation of soil moisture with 4% volumetric accuracy away from coastal zones. In regions near the coast or near inland bodies of water, the SMAP footprint contains land and water, resulting in errors in the soil moisture estimation. In this paper, we address the effort to extract the brightness temperature related to the land fraction or water fraction (depending on the center of the footprint location) from the affected SMAP measurements. We evaluate the performance of our algorithm over simulated data. We then show results over real data. The new SMAP upgraded product is expected to be delivered on April 2018.
Entekhabi, Dara↗
The Proposed Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) Mission
A new space mission concept called Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) is being developed jointly by a collaborative effort of the international oceanographic and hydrological communities for making high-resolution measurement of the water elevation of both the ocean and land surface water to answer the questions about the oceanic submesoscale processes and the storage and discharge of land surface water. The key instrument payload would be a Ka-band radar interferometer capable of making high-resolution wide-swath altimetry measurement. This paper describes the proposed science objectives and requirements as well as the measurement approach of SWOT, which is baselined to be launched in 2019. SWOT would demonstrate this new approach to advancing both oceanography and land hydrology and set a standard for future altimetry missions.
ocean topography↗
Global Ocean Mass Change Derived From Atmospheric Reanalyses
Barystatic sea level change is a significant climate variable and a gauge for water exchanges between land, atmosphere, and ocean, with consequential relevance to stakeholders. The monitoring and attribution of globally averaged sea level variations represents substantial challenges to the climate community. Atmospheric reanalyses provide a level of monitoring for elements of the climate system that are in communication with the ocean, including the atmosphere, terrestrial land, and the surfaces of glaciated land. Global atmospheric reanalyses comprise model output that is statistically adjusted to available observations. Potentially, reanalyses offer a climatic context to observed changes in water mass distribution. Improvement in the representation of the water cycle and in water mass conservation have been stated goals of reanalysis projects. Here, we assess the capability of atmospheric reanalyses to represent variations in the global water budget from the perspective of ocean mass balance. The purpose of this work is to provide a detailed evaluation of current atmospheric reanalyses and their ability to reproduce spatial and temporal variations in atmospheric and terrestrial water storage. A second goal is to identify and characterize recent apparent trends in the water balance. We examine the ERA5, MERRA-2, and JRA-3Q reanalyses with a focus on the radio-occultation observing period from 2007 to the present. For terrestrial water storage we also compare with ERA5-Land, a surface reanalysis. The primary validation is from the NASA/DLR Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and its follow-on, GRACE-FO. The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) onboard NASA's Aqua satellite is also used for evaluation of the atmospheric moisture budget. Comparisons reveal strengths and weaknesses in the reanalyses of each component of the climate system. Reanalyses agree closely on atmospheric moisture storage trends, although mean values differ. Reanalyses show significant differences in land water storage. They also apply large corrections to the land water budget. Finally, reanalyses have differing abilities in representing the surface mass balance over glaciated land. Using the observed gravimetry record, changes in the underlying glaciated land ice are examined as a residual.
Richard Cullather↗
Connecting Satellite Observations with Water Cycle Variables Through Land Data Assimilation: Examples Using the NASA GEOS-5 LDAS
A land data assimilation system (LDAS) can merge satellite observations (or retrievals) of land surface hydrological conditions, including soil moisture, snow, and terrestrial water storage (TWS), into a numerical model of land surface processes. In theory, the output from such a system is superior to estimates based on the observations or the model alone, thereby enhancing our ability to understand, monitor, and predict key elements of the terrestrial water cycle. In practice, however, satellite observations do not correspond directly to the water cycle variables of interest. The present paper addresses various aspects of this seeming mismatch using examples drawn from recent research with the ensemble-based NASA GEOS-5 LDAS. These aspects include (1) the assimilation of coarse-scale observations into higher-resolution land surface models, (2) the partitioning of satellite observations (such as TWS retrievals) into their constituent water cycle components, (3) the forward modeling of microwave brightness temperatures over land for radiance-based soil moisture and snow assimilation, and (4) the selection of the most relevant types of observations for the analysis of a specific water cycle variable that is not observed (such as root zone soil moisture). The solution to these challenges involves the careful construction of an observation operator that maps from the land surface model variables of interest to the space of the assimilated observations.
Land data assimilation↗
Improving Brightness Temperature Measurements near Coastal Areas for SMAP
The Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission is designed to acquire L-band radiometer measurements for the estimation of soil moisture with 0.04 m3/m3 volumetric accuracy in the top 5 cm for vegetation with water content of less than 5 kg/m2. In regions near the coast or near inland bodies of water, the signal measured by the SMAP radiometer contains emissions from land and water, resulting in errors in the soil moisture estimation. In this paper, the effort to extract the brightness temperature (TB) according to the land fraction or water fraction (depending on the center of the footprint location) from the affected SMAP measurements was addressed. A single pixel correction algorithm was applied and its performance was evaluated over simulated data. A data-driven approach for the estimation of land and water TB for data correction was developed. The correction algorithm was then applied to real data and its performance was assessed over the SMAP soil moisture retrievals. We showed that the single pixel algorithm is an effective and computationally efficient algorithm for removing land or water TB contamination from the SMAP data.
Julian Chaubell↗
Application of MODIS Products to Infer Possible Relationships Between Basin Land Cover and Coastal Waters Turbidity Using the Magdalena River, Colombia, as a Case Study
Basin development and consequent change in basin land cover have been often associated with an increased turbidity in coastal waters because of sediment yield and nutrients loading. The later leads to phytoplankton abundance further exacerbating water turbidity. This subsequently affects biological and physical processes in coastal estuaries by interfering with sun light penetration to coral reefs and sea grass, and even affecting public health. Therefore, consistent estimation of land cover changes and turbidity trend lines is crucial to design environmental and restoration management plans, to predict fate of possible pollutants, and to estimate sedimentary fluxes into the ocean. Ground solely methods to estimate land cover change would be unpractical and traditional methods of monitoring in situ water turbidity can be very expensive and time consuming. Accurate monitoring on the status and trends of basin land cover as well as the water quality of the receiving water bodies are required for analysis of relationships between the two variables. Use of remote sensing (RS) technology provides a great benefit for both fields of study, facilitating monitoring of changes in a timely and cost effective manner and covering wide areas with long term measurements. In this study, the Magdalena River basin and fixed geographical locations in the estuarine waters of its delta are used as a case to study the temporal trend lines of both, land cover change and the reflectance of the water turbidity using satellite technology. Land cover data from a combined product between sensors Terra and Aqua (MCD12Q1) from MODIS will be adapted to the conditions in the Magdalena basin to estimate changes in land cover since year 2000 to 2009. Surface reflectance data from a MODIS, Terra (MOD09GQ), band 1, will be used in lieu of in situ water turbidity for the time period between 2000 and present. Results will be compared with available existing data.
Madrinan, Max Jacobo Moreno↗
Quantifying Water Storage Change and Land Subsidence Induced by Reservoir Impoundment Using GRACE, Landsat, and GPS Data
The construction of hydropower dams is a common strategy to support a country's increasing need for electricity and river water management for industry and agriculture. Although the hydrological and geophysical impacts of water relocation are usually assessed prior to impoundment, their accuracy is generally limited due to the lack of in situ observations, especially in a remote area. This study presents a workflow to quantify the terrestrial water storage change (TWS) and land subsidence induced by a reservoir's water impoundment using multiple satellite observations (GRACE, Landsat), land surface models (CABLE, GLDAS, NCEP, ECMWF), and GPS data. The study site is the Bakun Dam, located in Sarawak, Malaysia, which is the largest hydropower dam in Southeast Asia. Commencing operation in late 2010, the dam induced a change of water mass and lake surface area that was clearly observed by GRACE and Landsat observations, respectively. During the 17-month impounding period (from August 2010 to December 2011), GRACE observed a dramatic increase of approximately 200 mm equivalent water height, while Landsat detected an increased lake extent of around 600 km2. In this paper, a forward model is developed to determine the increased water surface level corresponding to GRACE observations, estimated to be about 120 m. In contrast to GRACE, the TWS derived from land surface models cannot capture the increased TWS, due to the lack of reservoir routing algorithms in the models. In addition, the land subsidence was calculated using the disk load model constructed based on the GRACE-derived lake level and Landsat-derived lake extent; the result is validated with the GPS data from BIN1 station, located at the western coast of Borneo. The commencement stage of the Bakun Dam induces the large-scale land subsidence, which causes the GPS-BIN1 station to subside by ~9 mm, and move toward the Bakun Lake by ~4 mm. Computation of the surface displacements directly from GRACE spherical harmonic coefficient data fails to capture the subsidence feature, mainly due to the truncation error. Overall, this study demonstrates that evaluating GRACE in conjunction with Landsat, LSMs, and GPS data allows the exploitation of the gravity signal at a much smaller spatial scale than its intrinsic resolution. Benefiting from global coverage, the newly developed satellite-based algorithm is a valuable tool for assessing the impacts of reservoir operation on hydrological and geophysical changes from local to regional scales.
Natthachet Tangdamrongsub↗
False-color display of special sensor microwave/imager (SSM/I) data
Displays of multifrequency passive microwave data from the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) flying on the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) spacecraft are presented. Observed brightness temperatures at 85.5 GHz (vertical and horizontal polarizations) and 37 GHz (vertical polarization) are respectively used to 'drive' the red, green, and blue 'guns' of a color monitor. The resultant false-color images can be used to distinguish land from water, highlight precipitation processes and structure over both land and water, and detail variations in other surfaces such as deserts, snow cover, and sea ice. The observations at 85.5 GHz also add a previously unavailable frequency to the problem of rainfall estimation from space. Examples of mesoscale squall lines, tropical and extra-tropical storms, and larger-scale land and atmospheric features as 'viewed' by the SSM/I are shown.
Negri, Andrew J.↗
Remote sensing of effects of land use practices on water quality
An intensive study was conducted to determine the utility of manual densitometry and color additive viewing of aircraft and LANDSAT transparencies for monitoring land use and land use change. The relationship between land use and selected water quality parameters was also evaluated. Six watersheds located in the Cumberland Plateau region of eastern Kentucky comprised the study area for the project. Land uses present within the study area were reclaimed surface mining and forestry. Fertilization of one of the forested watersheds also occurred during the study period.
Graves, D. H.↗