Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Stochastic modelling”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 307 records · Page 17
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Coupled Interfacial and Bulk Kinetics Govern the Timescales of Multiphase Ozonolysis Reactions

Chemical transformations in aerosols impact the lifetime of particle phase species, the fate of atmospheric pollutants, and both climate- and health-relevant aerosol properties. Timescales for multiphase reactions of ozone in atmospheric aqueous phases are governed by coupled kinetic processes between the gas phase, the particle interface, and its bulk, which respond dynamically to reactive consumption of O 3 . However, models of atmospheric aerosol reactivity often do not account for the coupled nature of multiphase processes. Herein, to examine these dynamics, we use new and prior experimental observations of aqueous droplet reaction kinetics, including three systems with a range of surface affinities and ozonolysis rate coefficients ( trans -aconitic acid (C 6 H 6 O 6 ), maleic acid (C 4 H 4 O 4 ), and sodium nitrite (NaNO 2 )). Using literature rate coefficients and thermodynamic properties, we constrain a simple two-compartment stochastic kinetic model which resolves the interface from the particle bulk and represents O 3 partitioning, diffusion, and reaction as a coupled kinetic system. Our kinetic model accurately predicts decay kinetics across all three systems, demonstrating that both the thermodynamic properties of O 3 and the coupled kinetic and diffusion processes are key to making accurate predictions. An enhanced concentration of adsorbed O 3 , compared to gas and bulk phases is rapidly maintained and remains constant even as O 3 is consumed by reaction. Multiphase systems dynamically seek to achieve equilibrium in response to reactive O 3 loss, but this is hampered at solute concentrations relevant to aqueous aerosol by the rate of O 3 arrival in the bulk by diffusion. As a result, bulk-phase O 3 becomes depleted from its Henry's law solubility. This bulk-phase O 3 depletion limits reaction timescales for relatively slow-reacting organic solutes with low interfacial affinity (i.e., trans-aconitic and maleic acids, with k rxn ≈ 10 3 -10 4 M -1 s -1 ), which is in contrast to fast-reacting solutes with higher surface affinity (i.e., nitrite, with k rxn ≈ 10 5 M -1 s -1 ) where surface reactions strongly impact the observed decay kinetics.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Modeling of the amplified optical stochastic cooling experiment at IOTA

Optical Stochastic Cooling (OSC), a beam cooling technique based on Stochastic Cooling, is in the early stages of experimental development. It uses radiation produced by the beam in an undulator magnet (the pickup) to correct the momentum deviation of particles downstream in another undulator (the kicker). The OSC mechanism was recently demonstrated at Fermilab’s IOTA ring using a passive configuration. However, the cooling rate of OSC can be dramatically increased by first amplifying the undulator radiation before applying the corrective kick. In collaboration with the IOTA experiment, we developed a computational model of the OSC mechanism. This paper presents beam-dynamics simulations of the amplified-OSC configuration. We implement a model of intrabeam scattering and study the effects on beam equilibrium and diffusion rate as a function of bunch charge. Finally, we investigate the phase-space dynamics with various coupling configurations between the transverse and longitudinal planes.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Artificial generation of representative single Li-ion electrode particle architectures from microscopy data

Accurately capturing the architecture of single lithium-ion electrode particles is necessary for understanding their performance limitations and degradation mechanisms through multi-physics modeling. Information is drawn from multimodal microscopy techniques to artificially generate LiNi 0.5 Mn 0.3 Co 0.2 O 2 particles with full sub-particle grain detail. Statistical representations of particle architectures are derived from X-ray nano-computed tomography data supporting an ‘outer shell’ model, and sub-particle grain representations are derived from focused-ion beam electron backscatter diffraction data supporting a ‘grain’ model. A random field model used to characterize and generate the outer shells, and a random tessellation model used to characterize and generate grain architectures, are combined to form a multi-scale model for the generation of virtual electrode particles with full-grain detail. This work demonstrates the possibility of generating representative single electrode particle architectures for modeling and characterization that can guide synthesis approaches of particle architectures with enhanced performance.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Optimal Control of Biomass Feedstock Processing System Under Uncertainty in Biomass Quality

Planning of biorefinery operations is complicated by the stochastic nature of physical and chemical characteristics of biomass feedstock, such as, moisture level and carbohydrate content. Biomass characteristics affect the performance of the equipment which feed the reactor and the efficiency of the conversion process in a biorefinery. We propose a stochastic optimization model to identify a blend of feedstocks, inventory levels, and operating conditions of equipment to ensure a continuous flowing of biomass to the reactor while meeting the requirements of the biochemical conversion process. We propose a sample average approximation (SAA) of the model, and develop an efficient algorithm to solve the SAA model. A feedstock preprocessing process consists of two-stage grinding and pelleting is used to develop a case study. Extensive numerical analysis are conducted which lead to a number of observations. Our main observation is that sequencing bales based on moisture level and carbohydrate content leads to robust solutions that improve processing time and processing rate of the reactor. We provide a number of managerial insights that facilitate the implementation of the model proposed. Note to Practitioners—This paper is motivated by the challenges faced in the bioenergy industry. The focus of this paper is on plants which use the biochemical conversion process to generate liquid fuels. It has been observed that variations in biomass characteristics, such as moisture content, cause variations in feeding of the system which lead to under-utilization of equipment. A requirement of biochemical conversion process is to maintain the carbohydrate content of biomass processed by the reactor, larger than a threshold. We propose a model that identifies the inventory levels and operating conditions of equipment to ensure a continuous flowing of biomass to the reactor. The goal is to improve equipment utilization while satisfying the requirements of the conversion process. The model is tested using real-life data. We found out that by sequencing bales based on moisture level and carbohydrate content, a plant can reduce variability in the system leading to improved system reliability, higher processing rates of the reactor, and higher throughput.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Accurate numerical simulations of open quantum systems using spectral tensor trains

Decoherence between qubits is a major bottleneck in quantum computations. Decoherence results from intrinsic quantum and thermal fluctuations as well as noise in the external fields that perform the measurement and preparation processes. With prescribed colored noise spectra for intrinsic and extrinsic noise, we present a numerical method, Quantum Accelerated Stochastic Propagator Evaluation (Q-ASPEN), to solve the time-dependent noise-averaged reduced density matrix in the presence of intrinsic and extrinsic noise. Q-ASPEN is arbitrarily accurate and can be applied to provide estimates for the resources needed to error-correct quantum computations. We employ spectral tensor trains, which combine the advantages of tensor networks and pseudospectral methods, as a variational ansatz to the quantum relaxation problem and optimize the ansatz using methods typically used to train neural networks. Here, the spectral tensor trains in Q-ASPEN make accurate calculations with tens of quantum levels feasible. We present benchmarks for Q-ASPEN on the spin-boson model in the presence of intrinsic noise and on a quantum chain of up to 32 sites in the presence of extrinsic noise. In our benchmark, the memory cost of Q-ASPEN scales as a low-order polynomial in the size of the system once the number of system states surpasses the number of basis functions used in the spectral expansion.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2024

Task-oriented machine learning surrogates for tipping points of agent-based models

We present a machine learning framework bridging manifold learning, neural networks, Gaussian processes, and Equation-Free multiscale approach, for the construction of different types of effective reduced order models from detailed agent-based simulators and the systematic multiscale numerical analysis of their emergent dynamics. The specific tasks of interest here include the detection of tipping points, and the uncertainty quantification of rare events near them. Our illustrative examples are an event-driven, stochastic financial market model describing the mimetic behavior of traders, and a compartmental stochastic epidemic model on an Erdös-Rényi network. We contrast the pros and cons of the different types of surrogate models and the effort involved in learning them. Importantly, the proposed framework reveals that, around the tipping points, the emergent dynamics of both benchmark examples can be effectively described by a one-dimensional stochastic differential equation, thus revealing the intrinsic dimensionality of the normal form of the specific type of the tipping point. This allows a significant reduction in the computational cost of the tasks of interest.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Calibration verification for stochastic agent-based disease spread models

Accurate disease spread modeling is crucial for identifying the severity of outbreaks and planning effective mitigation efforts. To be reliable when applied to new outbreaks, model calibration techniques must be robust. However, current methods frequently forgo calibration verification (a stand-alone process evaluating the calibration procedure) and instead use overall model validation (a process comparing calibrated model results to data) to check calibration processes, which may conceal errors in calibration. In this work, we develop a stochastic agent-based disease spread model to act as a testing environment as we test two calibration methods using simulation-based calibration, which is a synthetic data calibration verification method. The first calibration method is a Bayesian inference approach using an empirically-constructed likelihood and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling, while the second method is a likelihood-free approach using approximate Bayesian computation (ABC). Simulation-based calibration suggests that there are challenges with the empirical likelihood calculation used in the first calibration method in this context. These issues are alleviated in the ABC approach. Despite these challenges, we note that the first calibration method performs well in a synthetic data model validation test similar to those common in disease spread modeling literature. We conclude that stand-alone calibration verification using synthetic data may benefit epidemiological researchers in identifying model calibration challenges that may be difficult to identify with other commonly used model validation techniques.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

2023 FORCE Development Status Update

Technical and economic analysis of integrated energy systems (IES) using software models is a complex process requiring multiple commodity market decision analysis, optimal control, process modeling, and stochastic analysis. Many assumptions used in traditional energy analysis tools do not hold in future energy markets with significant storage and variable renewable energy sources (VRE), let alone with multiple commodity markets. Capturing these intricate elements for accurate techno-economic analysis of IES led to the development of the Framework for Optimization of ResourCes and Economics (FORCE) tool suite under the U.S. Department of Energy’s Integrated Energy Systems crosscutting technology program. With the aim of a full framework release in 2025, many improvements to the FORCE tool suite were developed in fiscal year 2023 (FY23). These improvements broadly fit into three focuses for development of FORCE: capability, accessibility, and reliability. Capability refers to the ability of FORCE to accurately model the technical and economic viability of various IES. Accessibility refers to ease-of-use for new and existing IES analysts to efficiently set up, analyze, and produce results using FORCE. Reliability refers to the consistency of the software, allowing consistency to analysis regardless of erstwhile changes to the software. In addition to many smaller changes, there are three major capability improvements in FORCE in FY23. In summary, FORCE developments in FY23 have moved us close to all the capability requirements for FORCE 1.0 to be delivered in FY25. Inclusion of Bayesian optimization, resilience metrics, and levelized cost analysis expand the capability, accessibility, and reliability of FORCE.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Clustering-Based Scenario Generation Framework for Power Market Simulation with Wind Integration

A critical step in stochastic optimization models of power system analysis is to select a set of appropriate scenarios and significant numbers of scenario generation methods exist in the literature. This paper develops a clustering based scenario generation method, which aims to improve the performance of existing scenario generation techniques by grouping a set of correlated wind sites into clusters according to their cross-correlations. Copula based models are utilized to model spatiotemporal correlations and the Gibbs sampling is then used to generate scenarios for day-ahead markets. Our results show that the generated scenarios based on clustered wind sites outperform existing approaches in terms of reliability and sharpness and can reduce the total computational time for scenario generation and reduction significantly. The clustering-based framework can therefore provide a better support for real-world market simulations with high wind penetration.

data visualization↗
DOE OSTI2024

Physics-Informed Learning Machines for Multiscale and Multiphysics Problems (PHILMS) (Technical Report)

The research work at University of California Santa Barbara (UCSB) resulted in several new developments in the areas of scientific machine learning, numerical analysis, and practical methods for data-driven modeling, prediction, reductions, and simulation. Many of the projects were carried out in collaboration with members of the national laboratories at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL), Pacific Northwestern National Laboratories (PNNL), and other institutions. Results included developing new scientific machine learning methods, related theory and mathematical frameworks for analysis and training, data-driven numerical solvers, and related tools and software for scientific computation. During the support period, over 16+ papers were submitted for publication, and 4 open-source software packages were developed and released (available at http://atzberger.org/). In addition, 7+ students and 2 post-docs were mentored in collaboration with the laboratory staff for future careers in academia, government labs, and industry.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Limitations of Bin and Bulk Microphysics in Reproducing the Observed Spatial Structure of Light Precipitation

Abstract Coarse-gridded atmospheric models often account for subgrid-scale variability by specifying probability distribution functions (PDFs) of process rate inputs such as cloud and rainwater mixing ratios ( q c and q r , respectively). PDF parameters can be obtained from numerous sources: in situ observations, ground- or space-based remote sensing, or fine-scale modeling such as large-eddy simulation (LES). LES is appealing to constrain PDFs because it generates large sample sizes, can simulate a variety of cloud regimes/case studies, and is not subject to the ambiguities of observations. However, despite the appeal of using model output for parameterization development, it has not been demonstrated that LES satisfactorily reproduces the observed spatial structure of microphysical fields. In this study, the structure of observed and modeled microphysical fields are compared by applying bifractal analysis, an approach that quantifies variability across spatial scales, to simulations of a drizzling stratocumulus field that span a range of domain sizes, drop concentrations (a proxy for mesoscale organization), and microphysics schemes (bulk and bin). Simulated q c closely matches observed estimates of bifractal parameters that measure smoothness and intermittency. There are major discrepancies between observed and simulated q r properties, though, with bulk simulated q r consistently displaying the bifractal properties of observed clouds (smooth, minimally intermittent) rather than rain while bin simulations produce q r that is appropriately intermittent but too smooth. These results suggest fundamental limitations of bulk and bin schemes to realistically represent higher-order statistics of the observed rain structure.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Enhancing flexibility for climate change using seasonal energy storage (aquifer thermal energy storage) in distributed energy systems

Long-term energy storage is expected to play a vital role in the deep decarbonization of building energy sectors, while enhancing the flexibility of buildings to withstand future climate variations. However, it is challenging to design distributed multi-energy systems (DMES) while taking into account the uncertainties introduced by climate change, since stochastic optimization of such systems is difficult. The present study introduces a stochastic optimization model to address this bottleneck, taking into account DMES including aquifer thermal energy storage (ATES) as the long-term thermal storage. For the first time, a novel optimization algorithm links ATES with the DMES optimization model with the support of a simplified geotechnical model. Subsequently, a case study was conducted, focusing on a residential district in Chicago where the impact of future climate condition, energy demand, and solar and wind energy potentials were evaluated using Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) data (up to 2080) and the EnergyPlus model. The study revealed that ATES is an attractive way to improve the renewable energy penetration level and minimize the dependence on fossil fuels with reasonable support from the grid to assist the fluctuations in both demand and generation. Furthermore, ATES notably reduces fuel consumption and dependence while greatly enhancing the flexibility of the energy system to withstand fluctuations in demand and renewable energy generation brought by future climate variations. These qualities will make ATES an important part of distributed energy systems, even though it is not currently the lowest cost alternative due to lack of technology maturity. Furthermore, the design platform introduced in the present study can be used to design DMES enhancing flexibility to accommodate future climate variations.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Formation and coarsening of epitaxially-supported metal nanoclusters

This mini-review describes developments over the last ~30 years in characterizing the nucleation & growth of epitaxially-supported metal nanoclusters (NCs) or islands during vapor deposition, as well as their post-deposition coarsening. A beyond-mean-field treatment for homogeneous nucleation & growth corrects the deficiencies of traditional treatments in describing, e.g., the island size distribution, but also necessitates consideration of the spatial distribution of islands and their capture zones. We discuss advances in modeling capabilities, including those based upon on an ab-initio level treatment of periphery diffusion kinetics, for description of the non-equilibrium growth shapes of these NCs, focusing on 2D NCs. For post-deposition coarsening of arrays of NCs, there is generally a competition between Ostwald Ripening (OR) and Smoluchowski Ripening (SR). SR is also known as Particle Migration & Coalescence. For 2D NCs in homoepitaxial systems, conventional OR is observed on pristine fcc(111) surfaces, dramatically enhanced OR in the presence of even trace amounts of chalcogens for Cu(111) and Ag(111), and anomalous OR on anisotropic fcc(110) surfaces. The unexpected discovery of SR for fcc(100) homoepitaxial systems prompted extensive analysis of the underlying diffusivities of 2D NCs as a function of size, as well as of NC coalescence dynamics. A comprehensive understanding of these processes is now available. Self-assembly of 3D NCs during deposition, issues related to heterogeneous nucleation, directed assembly, NC growth structure selection, and coarsening are addressed. Finally, for SR of 3D epitaxial NCs, recent insights into the size-dependence of diffusivity are described.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Energy-saving potential evaluation for primary schools with occupant-centric controls

Recent studies demonstrated that there is significant energy-saving potential for primary schools, which heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) systems with occupant-centric control (OCC) is an excellent candidate to save energy. However, such an energy impact has yet to be evaluated for different climate zones as well as different energy code versions, but is critical for technology transfer and deployment. Therefore, this paper conducts comprehensive evaluation on the energy-saving potentials for the primary schools with two advanced OCC strategies: presence-based and counting-based. In this work, ninety-six building energy models with stochastic behavior of occupants are developed and simulated, which consist of two building energy code versions, 16 climate zones, and baseline case (without OCC) and two advanced cases (with OCC). To evaluate the energy saving potentials for OCC, primary schools in the U.S. are used as an example. The results show that there is significant energy-saving potential for primary schools by considering OCC strategies, especially the counting-based case. The energy-saving potential is up to 10.2% for presence-based OCC and 12.41% for counting-based OCC. Furthermore, both climate and code version have a significant impact on energy savings from OCC strategies. The energy-saving potentials vary from 1.79% to 12.41% for different climates and code versions. This evaluation can also contribute to quantify the nationwide energy saving potential for other countries.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2023

Effect of particle size on the capture of uranium oxide colloidal particles from aqueous suspensions via high-gradient magnetic filtration

The effectiveness of High Gradient Magnetic Filtration (HGMF) in capturing uranium oxide particles from suspensions was investigated in this study. Two sets of experiments were performed to evaluate the importance of size on the capture of uranium oxide particles. The first considered two batches sieved into size bins of< 5, 5–10, 10–15, and 15–20 µm, while the second was performed using two suspensions with diameters smaller than 1.0 µm and between 1.0 and 1.5 µm. Iron oxide experiments, with particles between 0.3 and 0.8 µm, were performed for calibration purposes. In all experiments, a surfactant (Triton-X100 or sodium dodecyl sulfate) was used to prevent particle aggregation and limit the influence of non-magnetic capture mechanisms. A magnetic field of approximately 1.1 Tesla was generated using a water cooled electromagnet. HGMF was performed using tubular filters packed with ferromagnetic stainless-steel wool. Of the initial four uranium oxide particle sizes, magnetic capture was only observed for particles with a diameter of less than 5 µm, while larger particles experienced no magnetic and minimal total capture. For particles with diameters smaller than 1.0 µm and between 1.0 and 1.5 µm, capture efficiencies increased by 39 ± 9% and 34 ± 6% respectively, solely due to the magnetic field. Although the magnetic force is proportional to particle diameter, the capture efficiency decreased as diameter increased. So these results suggest that Brownian diffusion, which is influential for micron sized particles and increases with decreasing particle size, is acting in conjunction with the magnetic force to influence the efficacy of HGMF for uranium oxide. This important finding underscores the effectiveness of Brownian diffusion in increasing the rate of collision between particles and collector fibers. A stochastic trajectory model was developed to incorporate the influence of Brownian motion on particle behavior and filter removal efficiency. Modeling results are discussed and compared for uranium and iron oxide particles.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Enhancing power grid resilience to winter storms via generator winterization with equity considerations

Here we develop two-stage stochastic programming models for generator winterization that enhance power grid resilience while incorporating social equity. The first stage in our models captures the investment decisions for generator winterization, and the second stage captures the operation of a degraded power grid, with the objective of minimizing load shed and social inequity. To incorporate equity into our models, we propose a concept called adverse effect probability that captures the disproportionate effects of power outages on communities with varying vulnerability levels. Grid operations are modeled using DC power flow, and equity is captured through mean or maximum adverse effects experienced by communities. We apply our models to a synthetic Texas power grid, using winter storm scenarios created from the generator outage data from the 2021 Texas winter storm. Our extensive numerical experiments show that more equitable outcomes, in the sense of reducing adverse effects experienced by vulnerable communities during power outages, are achievable with no impact on total load shed through investing in winterization of generators in different locations and capacities.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗