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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 307 records · Page 17
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Towards optimal sensor placement for inverse problems in spaces of measures

The objective of this work is to quantify the reconstruction error in sparse inverse problems with measures and stochastic noise, motivated by optimal sensor placement. To be useful in this context, the error quantities must be explicit in the sensor configuration and robust with respect to the source, yet relatively easy to compute in practice, compared to a direct evaluation of the error by a large number of samples. In particular, we consider the identification of a measure consisting of an unknown linear combination of point sources from a finite number of measurements contaminated by Gaussian noise. The statistical framework for recovery relies on two main ingredients: first, a convex but non-smooth variational Tikhonov point estimator over the space of Radon measures and, second, a suitable mean-squared error based on its Hellinger–Kantorovich distance to the ground truth. To quantify the error, we employ a non-degenerate source condition as well as careful linearization arguments to derive a computable upper bound. This leads to asymptotically sharp error estimates in expectation that are explicit in the sensor configuration. Thus they can be used to estimate the expected reconstruction error for a given sensor configuration and guide the placement of sensors in sparse inverse problems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Quantifying uncertainties on fission fragment mass yields with mixture density networks

Probabilistic machine learning techniques can learn both complex relations between input features and output quantities of interest as well as take into account stochasticity or uncertainty within a data set. In this initial work, we explore the use of one such probabilistic network, the mixture density network (MDN), to reproduce fission yields and their uncertainties. In this paper, we study mass yields for the spontaneous fission of 252 Cf, exploring the number of training samples needed for converged predictions, how different levels of uncertainty propagate from the training set to the MDN predictions, and how well physical constraints of the yields—such as normalization and symmetry—are upheld by the algorithm. Finally, we test the ability of the MDN to interpolate between and extrapolate beyond samples in the training set using energy-dependent mass yields for the neutron-induced fission on 235 U. The MDN provides a reliable way to include and predict uncertainties and is a promising path forward for supplementing sparse sets of nuclear data.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2020

DPM: A deep learning PDE augmentation method with application to large-eddy simulation

A framework is introduced that leverages known physics to reduce overfitting in machine learning for scientific applications. The partial differential equation (PDE) that expresses the physics is augmented with a neural network that uses available data to learn a description of the corresponding unknown or unrepresented physics. Training within this combined system corrects for missing, unknown, or erroneously represented physics, including discretization errors associated with the PDE's numerical solution. For optimization of the network within the PDE, an adjoint PDE is solved to provide high-dimensional gradients, and a stochastic adjoint method (SAM) further accelerates training. Additionally, the approach is demonstrated for large-eddy simulation (LES) of turbulence. High-fidelity direct numerical simulations (DNS) of decaying isotropic turbulence provide the training data used to learn sub-filter-scale closures for the filtered Navier–Stokes equations. Out-of-sample comparisons show that the deep learning PDE method outperforms widely-used models, even for filter sizes so large that they become qualitatively incorrect. It also significantly outperforms the same neural network when a priori trained based on simple data mismatch, not accounting for the full PDE. Measures of discretization errors, which are well-known to be consequential in LES, point to the importance of the unified training formulation's design, which without modification corrects for them. For comparable accuracy, simulation runtime is significantly reduced. A relaxation of the typical discrete enforcement of the divergence-free constraint in the solver is also successful, instead allowing the DPM to approximately enforce incompressibility physics. Since the training loss function is not restricted to correspond directly to the closure to be learned, training can incorporate diverse data, including experimental data.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Clustering-Based Scenario Generation Framework for Power Market Simulation with Wind Integration

A critical step in stochastic optimization models of power system analysis is to select a set of appropriate scenarios and significant numbers of scenario generation methods exist in the literature. This paper develops a clustering based scenario generation method, which aims to improve the performance of existing scenario generation techniques by grouping a set of correlated wind sites into clusters according to their cross-correlations. Copula based models are utilized to model spatiotemporal correlations and the Gibbs sampling is then used to generate scenarios for day-ahead markets. Our results show that the generated scenarios based on clustered wind sites outperform existing approaches in terms of reliability and sharpness and can reduce the total computational time for scenario generation and reduction significantly. The clustering-based framework can therefore provide a better support for real-world market simulations with high wind penetration.

data visualization↗
DOE OSTI2021

Soil microbiome predictability increases with spatial and taxonomic scale

Soil microorganisms shape ecosystem function, yet it remains an open question whether we can predict the composition of the soil microbiome in places before observing it. Furthermore, it is unclear whether the predictability of microbial life exhibits taxonomic- and spatial-scale dependence, as it does for macrobiological communities. Here, we leverage multiple large-scale soil microbiome surveys to develop predictive models of bacterial and fungal community composition in soil, then test these models against independent soil microbial community surveys from across the continental United States. We find remark- able scale dependence in community predictability. The predictability of bacterial and fungal communities increases with the spatial scale of observation, and fungal predictability increases with taxonomic scale. These patterns suggest that there is an increasing importance of deterministic versus stochastic processes with scale, consistent with findings in plant and animal communities, suggesting a general scaling relationship across biology. Biogeochemical functional groups and high-level taxonomic groups of microorganisms were equally predictable, indicating that traits and taxonomy are both powerful lenses for understanding soil communities. Here, by focusing on out-of-sample prediction, these findings suggest an emerging generality in our understanding of the soil microbiome, and that this understanding is fundamentally scale dependent

Biogeography↗
DOE OSTI2024

Calibration verification for stochastic agent-based disease spread models

Accurate disease spread modeling is crucial for identifying the severity of outbreaks and planning effective mitigation efforts. To be reliable when applied to new outbreaks, model calibration techniques must be robust. However, current methods frequently forgo calibration verification (a stand-alone process evaluating the calibration procedure) and instead use overall model validation (a process comparing calibrated model results to data) to check calibration processes, which may conceal errors in calibration. In this work, we develop a stochastic agent-based disease spread model to act as a testing environment as we test two calibration methods using simulation-based calibration, which is a synthetic data calibration verification method. The first calibration method is a Bayesian inference approach using an empirically-constructed likelihood and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling, while the second method is a likelihood-free approach using approximate Bayesian computation (ABC). Simulation-based calibration suggests that there are challenges with the empirical likelihood calculation used in the first calibration method in this context. These issues are alleviated in the ABC approach. Despite these challenges, we note that the first calibration method performs well in a synthetic data model validation test similar to those common in disease spread modeling literature. We conclude that stand-alone calibration verification using synthetic data may benefit epidemiological researchers in identifying model calibration challenges that may be difficult to identify with other commonly used model validation techniques.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Chemical Analysis of the Ultrafaint Dwarf Galaxy Grus II. Signature of High-mass Stellar Nucleosynthesis

We present a detailed abundance analysis of the three brightest member stars at the top of the giant branch of the ultrafaint dwarf (UFD) galaxy Grus II. All stars exhibit a higher than expected [Mg/Ca] ratio compared to metal-poor stars in other UFD galaxies and in the Milky Way (MW) halo. Nucleosynthesis in high-mass ( 20 M ⊙) core-collapse supernovae has been shown to create this signature. The abundances of this small sample (three) stars suggests the chemical enrichment of Grus II could have occurred through substantial high-mass stellar evolution, and is consistent with the framework of a top-heavy initial mass function. However, with only three stars it cannot be ruled out that the abundance pattern is the result of a stochastic chemical enrichment at early times in the galaxy. The most metal-rich of the three stars also possesses a small enhancement in rapid neutron-capture (r-process) elements. The abundance pattern of the r-process elements in this star matches the scaled r-process pattern of the solar system and r-process enhanced stars in other dwarf galaxies and in the MW halo, hinting at a common origin for these elements across a range of environments. All current proposed astrophysical sites of r-process element production are associated with high-mass stars, thus the possible top-heavy initial mass function of Grus II would increase the likelihood of any of these events occurring. The time delay between the α and r-process element enrichment of the galaxy favors a neutron star merger as the origin of the r-process elements in Grus II.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

A stochastic biomass blending problem in decentralized supply chains

Blending biomass materials of different physical or chemical properties provides an opportunity to adjust the quality of the feedstock to meet the specifications of the conversion platform. We propose a model which identifies the right mix of biomass to optimize the performance of the thermochemical conversion process at the mini-mum cost. This is a chance-constraint programming (CCP) model which takes into account the stochastic nature of biomass quality. The proposed CCP model ensures that process requirements, which are impacted by physical and chemical properties of biomass, are met most of the time. We consider two problem settings, a centralized and a decentralized supply chain. We propose a mixed-integer linear program to model the blending problem in the centralized setting and a bilevel program to model the blending problem in the decentralized setting. We use the sample average approximation method to approximate the chance constraints, and propose solution algorithms to solve this approximation. We develop a case study for South Carolina using data provided by the Billion Ton Study. Based on our results, the blends identified consist mainly of pine and softwood residues. The blends identified and the suppliers selected by both models are different. The cost of the centralized supply chain is 2%–6% lower. The implications of these results are twofold. First, these results could lead to improved collaborations in the supply chain. Second, these results provide an estimate of the approximation error from assuming centralized decision making in the supply chain.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Assessments of epistemic uncertainty using Gaussian stochastic weight averaging for fluid-flow regression

Here, we use Gaussian stochastic weight averaging (SWAG) to assess the epistemic uncertainty associated with neural-network-based function approximation relevant to fluid flows. SWAG approximates a posterior Gaussian distribution of each weight, given training data, and a constant learning rate. Having access to this distribution, it is able to create multiple models with various combinations of sampled weights, which can be used to obtain ensemble predictions. The average of such an ensemble can be regarded as the 'mean estimation', whereas its standard deviation can be used to construct 'confidence intervals', which enable us to perform uncertainty quantification (UQ) with regard to the training process of neural networks. We utilize representative neural-network-based function approximation tasks for the following cases: (i) a two-dimensional circular-cylinder wake; (ii) the DayMET dataset (maximum daily temperature in North America); (iii) a three-dimensional square-cylinder wake; and (iv) urban flow, to assess the generalizability of the present idea for a wide range of complex datasets. SWAG-based UQ can be applied regardless of the network architecture, and therefore, we demonstrate the applicability of the method for two types of neural networks: (i) global field reconstruction from sparse sensors by combining convolutional neural network (CNN) and multi-layer perceptron (MLP); and (ii) far-field state estimation from sectional data with two-dimensional CNN. We find that SWAG can obtain physically-interpretable confidence-interval estimates from the perspective of epistemic uncertainty. This capability supports its use for a wide range of problems in science and engineering.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Comparison of Attila Transport Code with MCNP in the Analysis of Small Modular Reactor Shielding

Of great importance in the design of a nuclear power plant is the evaluation of shielding from the ionizing radiation produced in the core of the nuclear reactor. This requires simulation software to predict the dose rates in the areas of interest. These problems are referred to as deep penetration problems, as they involve the reduction of a radiation field by two or three orders of magnitude or more. This makes accurate analyses difficult for Monte Carlo based solutions that rely on enough particles being sampled in an area of interest. Comparing the simulation of the same modeled system with more than one computer application, especially one that uses a different algorithmic approach, is a way to gain confidence in the results. In this research, two models were created, one in Monte Carlo N Particle (MCNP) which uses a stochastic algorithmic approach, and the other in Attila, which uses a deterministic algorithmic approach to test the validity of the model and to estimate the dose rates in the area of interest. Successful comparison of the two models is a way we can validate the model used for that estimation.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Distributed Stochastic Optimization of a Neural Representation Network for Time-Space Tomography Reconstruction

4D time-space reconstruction of dynamic events or deforming objects using X-ray computed tomography (CT) is an important inverse problem in non-destructive evaluation. Conventional back-projection based reconstruction methods assume that the object remains static for the duration of several tens or hundreds of X-ray projection measurement images (reconstruction of consecutive limited-angle CT scans). However, this is an unrealistic assumption for many in-situ experiments that causes spurious artifacts and inaccurate morphological reconstructions of the object. To solve this problem, we propose to perform a 4D time-space reconstruction using a distributed implicit neural representation (DINR) network that is trained using a novel distributed stochastic training algorithm. Our DINR network learns to reconstruct the object at its output by iterative optimization of its network parameters such that the measured projection images best match the output of the CT forward measurement model. Here, we use a forward measurement model that is a function of the DINR outputs at a sparsely sampled set of continuous valued 4D object coordinates. Unlike previous neural representation architectures that forward and back propagate through dense voxel grids that sample the object's entire time-space coordinates, we only propagate through the DINR at a small subset of object coordinates in each iteration resulting in an order-of-magnitude reduction in memory and compute for training. DINR leverages distributed computation across several compute nodes and GPUs to produce high-fidelity 4D time-space reconstructions. We use both simulated parallel-beam and experimental cone-beam X-ray CT datasets to demonstrate the superior performance of our approach.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Probabilistic Look-ahead Contingency Analysis Integration with Commercial Tool and Practical Data

This paper presents an initial effort of integrating a smart sampling-based probabilistic look-ahead contingency analysis algorithm with General Electric (GE) Grid Solutions’ commercial energy management system (EMS) tool as a proof-of-concept for a seamless research tool integration using real world large-scale grid data. With the increasing impact of random forces such as variable generation and load, their stochastic behaviors cannot be ignored. However, the current practices are still dominated by deterministic tools. They are becoming increasingly inadequate for the future grid. The developed look-ahead contingency analysis algorithm incorporates forecast errors of variable energy and load to address the challenges brought by the increasing uncertainty of power system. The algorithm can reveal the potential violations caused by the variance of variable energy and load that are not normally detected by traditional deterministic approaches. To test its performance under practical environments ( real data with real commercial tool), significant efforts have been made to prepare test cases, modify GE EMS tool, and adapt an extreme value distribution algorithm to analyze the GE EMS’s violation-only outputs. The test results clearly demonstrate the effectiveness of the developed algorithm as new transformer violations that were not previously detected have been identified. This performance provides better situational awareness to engineers for their decision-making process under uncertainty. Moreover, with the discussion of computational performance and future work, this paper has shown a clear path for integrating the probabilistic algorithm with commercial tools to make us better equipped for the changing power system.

Modeling and simulation of power systems, constrai↗
DOE OSTI2025

Probing the PeV region in the astrophysical neutrino spectrum using 𝜈 𝜇 from the Southern sky

IceCube has observed a diffuse astrophysical neutrino flux over the energy region from a few TeV to a few PeV. At PeV energies, the spectral shape is not yet well measured due to the low statistics of the data. This analysis probes the gap between 1 and 10 PeV by using high-energy downgoing muon neutrinos. Here, to reject the large atmospheric muon background, two complementary techniques are combined. The first technique selects events with high stochasticity to reject atmospheric muon bundles whose stochastic energy losses are smoothed due to high muon multiplicity. The second technique vetoes atmospheric muons with the IceTop surface array. Using 9 yrs of data, we found two neutrino candidate events in the signal region, consistent with expectation from background, each with relatively high signal probabilities. A joint maximum likelihood estimation is performed using this sample and an independent 9.5-yr sample of tracks to measure the neutrino spectrum. A likelihood ratio test is done to compare the single power-law (SPL) vs SPL+cutoff hypothesis; the SPL+cutoff model is not significantly better than the SPL. High-energy astrophysical objects from four source catalogs are also checked around the direction of the two events. No significant coincidence was found.

Abbasi, R. [Loyola University Chicago] (ORCID:0000↗
DOE OSTI2022

Moving the needle: Employing deep reinforcement learning to push the boundaries of coarse-grained vaccine models

Highly mutable infectious disease pathogens (hm-IDPs) such as HIV and influenza evolve faster than the human immune system can contain them, allowing them to circumvent traditional vaccination approaches and causing over one million deaths annually. Agent-based models can be used to simulate the complex interactions that occur between immune cells and hm-IDP-like proteins (antigens) during affinity maturation—the process by which antibodies evolve. Compared to existing experimental approaches, agent-based models offer a safe, low-cost, and rapid route to study the immune response to vaccines spanning a wide range of design variables. However, the highly stochastic nature of affinity maturation and vast sequence space of hm-IDPs render brute force searches intractable for exploring all pertinent vaccine design variables and the subset of immunization protocols encompassed therein. To address this challenge, we employed deep reinforcement learning to drive a recently developed agent-based model of affinity maturation to focus sampling on immunization protocols with greater potential to improve the chosen metrics of protection, namely the broadly neutralizing antibody (bnAb) titers or fraction of bnAbs produced. Using this approach, we were able to coarse-grain a wide range of vaccine design variables and explore the relevant design space. Our work offers new testable insights into how vaccines should be formulated to maximize protective immune responses to hm-IDPs and how they can be minimally tailored to account for major sources of heterogeneity in human immune responses and various socioeconomic factors. Our results indicate that the first 3 to 5 immunizations, depending on the metric of protection, should be specially tailored to achieve a robust protective immune response, but that beyond this point further immunizations require only subtle changes in formulation to sustain a durable bnAb response.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

A test of gravity with Pulsar Timing Arrays

Abstract A successful measurement of the Stochastic Gravitational Wave Background (SGWB) in Pulsar Timing Arrays (PTAs) would open up a new window through which to test the predictions of General Relativity (GR). We consider how these measurements might reveal deviations from GR by studying the overlap reduction function — the quantity that in GR is approximated by the Hellings-Downs curve — in some sample modifications of gravity, focusing on the generic prediction of a modified dispersion relation for gravitational waves. We find a distinct signature of such modifications to GR — a shift in the minimum angle of the angular distribution — and demonstrate that this shift is quantitatively sensitive to any change in the phase velocity. In a given modification of gravity, this result can be used, in some regions of parameter space, to distinguish the effect of a modified dispersion relation from that due to the presence of extra polarization modes.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2023

Projection pursuit adaptation on polynomial chaos expansions

Here, the present work addresses the issue of accurate stochastic approximations in high-dimensional parametric space using tools from uncertainty quantification (UQ). The basis adaptation method and its accelerated algorithm in polynomial chaos expansions (PCE) were recently proposed to construct low-dimensional approximations adapted to specific quantities of interest (QoI). The present paper addresses one difficulty with these adaptations, namely their reliance on quadrature point sampling, which limits the reusability of potentially expensive samples. Projection pursuit (PP) is a statistical tool to find the “interesting” projections in high-dimensional data and thus bypass the curse-of-dimensionality. In the present work, we combine the fundamental ideas of basis adaptation and projection pursuit regression (PPR) to propose a novel method to simultaneously learn the optimal low-dimensional spaces and PCE representation from given data. While this projection pursuit adaptation (PPA) can be entirely data-driven, the constructed approximation exhibits mean-square convergence to the solution of an underlying governing equation and thus captures the supports and probability distributions associated with the physics constraints. The proposed approach is demonstrated on a borehole problem and a structural dynamics problem, demonstrating the versatility of the method and its ability to discover low-dimensional manifolds with high accuracy with limited data. In addition, the method can learn surrogate models for different quantities of interest while reusing the same data set.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Conveyor-belt magneto-optical trapping of molecules

Abstract Laser cooling is used to produce ultracold atoms and molecules for quantum science and precision measurement applications. Molecules are more challenging to cool than atoms due to their vibrational and rotational internal degrees of freedom. Molecular rotations lead to the use of type-II transitions ( F ⩾ F ′ ) for magneto-optical trapping (MOT). When typical red detuned light frequencies are applied to these transitions, sub-Doppler heating is induced, resulting in higher temperatures and larger molecular cloud sizes than realized with the type-I MOTs most often used with atoms. To improve type-II MOTs, Jarvis et al (2018 Phys. Rev. Lett. 120 083201) proposed a blue-detuned MOT to be applied after initial cooling and capture with a red-detuned MOT. This was successfully implemented (Burau et al 2023 Phys. Rev. Lett. 130 193401; Jorapur et al 2024 Phys. Rev. Lett. 132 163403; Li et al 2024 Phys. Rev. Lett. 132 233402), realizing colder and denser molecular samples. Very recently, Hallas et al (2024 arXiv:2404.03636) demonstrated a blue-detuned MOT with a ‘1+2’ configuration that resulted in even stronger compression of the molecular cloud. Here, we describe and characterize theoretically the conveyor-belt mechanism that underlies this observed enhanced compression. We perform numerical simulations of the conveyor-belt mechanism using both stochastic Schrödinger equation and optical Bloch equation approaches. We investigate the conveyor-belt MOT characteristics in relation to laser parameters, g -factors and the structure of the molecule, and find that conveyor-belt trapping should be applicable to a wide range of laser-coolable molecules.

Li, Grace K. (ORCID:0000000277223355)↗
DOE OSTI2023

Searching for quasar candidates with periodic variations from the Zwicky Transient Facility: results and implications

ABSTRACT We conduct a systematic search for quasars with periodic variations from the archival photometric data of the Zwicky Transient Facility by cross-matching with the quasar catalogues of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey and Véron-Cetty and Véron. We first select out 184 primitive periodic candidates using the generalized Lomb–Scargle periodogram and autocorrelation function and then estimate their statistical significance of periodicity based on two red-noise models, i.e. damped random walk (DRW) and single power-law (SPL) models. As such, we finally identify 106 (DRW) and 86 (SPL) candidates with the most significant periodic variations out of 143 700 quasars. We further compare DRW and SPL models using Bayes factors, which indicate a relative preference of the SPL model for our primitive sample. We thus adopt the candidates identified with SPL as the final sample and summarize its basic properties. We extend the light curves of the selected candidates by supplying other archival survey data to verify their periodicity. However, only three candidates (with 6–8 cycles of periods) meet the selection criteria. This result clearly implies that, instead of being strictly periodic, the variability must be quasi-periodic or caused by stochastic red-noise. This exerts a challenge to the existing search approaches and calls for developing new effective methods.

Chen, Yong-Jie (ORCID:0000000342807673)↗