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DOE OSTI2023

A Bayesian Approach for Characterizing and Mitigating Gate and Measurement Errors

Various noise models have been developed in quantum computing study to describe the propagation and effect of the noise that is caused by imperfect implementation of hardware. Identifying parameters such as gate and readout error rates is critical to these models. We use a Bayesian inference approach to identify posterior distributions of these parameters such that they can be characterized more elaborately. By characterizing the device errors in this way, we can further improve the accuracy of quantum error mitigation. Experiments conducted on IBM’s quantum computing devices suggest that our approach provides better error mitigation performance than existing techniques used by the vendor. Also, our approach outperforms the standard Bayesian inference method in some scenarios.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2017

Multi-fidelity stochastic collocation method for computation of statistical moments

We present an efficient numerical algorithm to approximate the statistical moments of stochastic problems, in the presence of models with different fidelities. The method extends the multi-fidelity approximation method developed in . By combining the efficiency of low-fidelity models and the accuracy of high-fidelity models, our method exhibits fast convergence with a limited number of high-fidelity simulations. We establish an error bound of the method and present several numerical examples to demonstrate the efficiency and applicability of the multi-fidelity algorithm.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2015

SU-D-BRD-07: Evaluation of the Effectiveness of Statistical Process Control Methods to Detect Systematic Errors For Routine Electron Energy Verification

Purpose: To evaluate the ability of statistical process control methods to detect systematic errors when using a two dimensional (2D) detector array for routine electron beam energy verification. Methods: Electron beam energy constancy was measured using an aluminum wedge and a 2D diode array on four linear accelerators. Process control limits were established. Measurements were recorded in control charts and compared with both calculated process control limits and TG-142 recommended specification limits. The data was tested for normality, process capability and process acceptability. Additional measurements were recorded while systematic errors were intentionally introduced. Systematic errors included shifts in the alignment of the wedge, incorrect orientation of the wedge, and incorrect array calibration. Results: Control limits calculated for each beam were smaller than the recommended specification limits. Process capability and process acceptability ratios were greater than one in all cases. All data was normally distributed. Shifts in the alignment of the wedge were most apparent for low energies. The smallest shift (0.5 mm) was detectable using process control limits in some cases, while the largest shift (2 mm) was detectable using specification limits in only one case. The wedge orientation tested did not affect the measurements as this did not affect the thickness of aluminum over the detectors of interest. Array calibration dependence varied with energy and selected array calibration. 6 MeV was the least sensitive to array calibration selection while 16 MeV was the most sensitive. Conclusion: Statistical process control methods demonstrated that the data distribution was normally distributed, the process was capable of meeting specifications, and that the process was centered within the specification limits. Though not all systematic errors were distinguishable from random errors, process control limits increased the ability to detect systematic errors using routine measurement of electron beam energy constancy.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Measurement of Compton Scattering at MAMI for the Extraction of the Electric and Magnetic Polarizabilities of the Proton

A precise measurement of the differential cross sections dσ/dΩ and the linearly polarized photon beam asymmetry Σ 3 for Compton scattering on the proton below pion threshold has been performed with a tagged photon beam and almost 4π detector at the Mainz Microtron. The incident photons were produced by the recently upgraded Glasgow-Mainz photon tagging facility and impinged on a cryogenic liquid hydrogen target, with the scattered photons detected in the Crystal Ball/TAPS setup. Using the highest statistics Compton scattering data ever measured on the proton along with two effective field theories (both covariant baryon and heavy-baryon) and one fixed-t dispersion relation model, constraining the fits with the Baldin sum rule, we have obtained the proton electric and magnetic polarizabilities with unprecedented precision: α E1 = 10.99 ± 0.16 ± 0.47 ± 0.17 ± 0.34, β M1 = 3.14 ± 0.21 ± 0.24 ± 0.20 ± 0.35; in units of 10 -4 fm 3 where the errors are statistical, systematic, spin polarizability dependent, and model dependent.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2014

Charmed and light pseudoscalar meson decay constants from HISQ simulations

We compute the leptonic decay constants $f_{D^+}$, $f_{D_s}$, and $f_{K^+}$, and the quark-mass ratios $m_c/m_s$ and $m_s/m_l$ in unquenched lattice QCD. We use the MILC highly improved staggered quark (HISQ) ensembles with four dynamical quark flavors. Our primary results are $f_{D^+} = 212.6(0.4)({}^{+1.0}_{-1.2})\ \mathrm{MeV}$, $f_{D_s} = 249.0(0.3)({}^{+1.1}_{-1.5})\ \mathrm{MeV}$, and $f_{D_s}/f_{D^+} = 1.1712(10)({}^{+29}_{-32})$, where the errors are statistical and total systematic, respectively. We also obtain $f_{K^+}/f_{\pi^+} = 1.1956(10)({}^{+26}_{-18})$, updating our previous result, and determine the quark-mass ratios $m_s/m_l = 27.35(5)({}^{+10}_{-7})$ and $m_c/m_s = 11.747(19)({}^{+59}_{-43})$. When combined with experimental measurements of the decay rates, our results lead to precise determinations of the CKM matrix elements $|V_{us}| = 0.22487(51) (29)(20)(5)$, $|V_{cd}|=0.217(1) (5)(1)$ and $|V_{cs}|= 1.010(5)(18)(6)$, where the errors are from this calculation of the decay constants, the uncertainty in the experimental decay rates, structure-dependent electromagnetic corrections, and, in the case of $|V_{us}|$, the uncertainty in $|V_{ud}|$, respectively.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Analysis of Three Types of Collocated Disdrometer Measurements at the ARM Southern Great Plains Observatory

To better provide U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility’s disdrometer deployment strategy and support ARM precipitation-related projects, this study analyzes 18 months of drop size distribution (DSD) observations from six collocated disdrometers deployed at the ARM Southern Great Plains (SGP) site. Emphasis is placed on quantifying the uncertainties related to DSD and rainfall properties using different types of disdrometers and different pairing concepts. The instrument sampling errors are also discussed, which improves our understanding of instrument-specific impacts on rainfall measurements. The key findings are as follows: 1) All the disdrometers show consistent behaviors overall regarding accumulated precipitation, mean rainfall rate, DSD parameters, and radar reflectivity values; and 2) Strong agreement is shown between three disdrometer types in terms of their DSDs for mid-size drop range (D = 1 mm-4 mm). The two-dimensional video disdrometer performance meets expectations as the most accurate unit among all. The paired disdrometer shows a reduced statistical sampling error in terms of drop counts and other DSD properties. A concept of deploying two or more collocated disdrometers side by side is recommended for future ARM field campaigns.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Asymmetric errors

We present a procedure for handling asymmetric errors. Many results in particle physics are presented as values with different positive and negative errors, and there is no consistent procedure for handling them. We consider the difference between errors quoted, using pdfs and using likelihoods, and the difference between the rms spread of a measurement and the 68% central confidence region. We provide a comprehensive analysis of the possibilities, and software tools to enable their use.

Asymmetric↗

DOE OSTI2022

Study of γ γ → γ ψ ( 2 S ) at Belle

Using 980 fb -1 of data at and around the Υ(nS)(n = 1, 2, 3, 4, 5) resonances collected with the Belle detector at the KEKB asymmetric-energy e+e- collider, the two-photon process γγ → γψ(2S) is studied from the threshold to 4.2 GeV for the first time. Two structures are seen in the invariant mass distribution of γψ(2S): one at M R 1 = 3922.4 ± 6.5 ± 2.0 MeV/c 2 with a width of Γ R 1 = 22 ± 17 ± 4 MeV, and another at M R 2 = 4014.3 ± 4.0 ± 1.5 MeV/c 2 with a width of Γ R 2 = 4 ± 11 ± 6 MeV; the signals are parametrized with the incoherent sum of two Breit- Wigner functions. The first structure is consistent with the X(3915) or the χ c2 (3930), and the local statistical significance is determined to be 3.1σ with the systematic uncertainties included. The second matches none of the known charmonium or charmonium like states, and its global significance is determined to be 2.8σ including the look-elsewhere effect. The production rates are Γ γγ B(R 1 → γψ(2S)) = 9.8 ± 3.6 ± 1.2 eV assuming (J PC , |λ|) = (0 ++ , 0) or 2.0 ± 0.7 ± 0.2 eV with (2 ++ , 2) for the first structure and Γ γγ B(R 2 → γψ(2S)) = 6.2 ± 2.2 ± 0.8 eV with (0 ++ , 0) or 1.2 ± 0.4 ± 0.2 eV with (2 ++ , 2) for the second one. Furthermore, the first errors are statistical and the second systematic, and λ is the helicity.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2015

Lung motion estimation using dynamic point shifting: An innovative model based on a robust point matching algorithm

Purpose: Image-guided radiotherapy is an advanced 4D radiotherapy technique that has been developed in recent years. However, respiratory motion causes significant uncertainties in image-guided radiotherapy procedures. To address these issues, an innovative lung motion estimation model based on a robust point matching is proposed in this paper. Methods: An innovative robust point matching algorithm using dynamic point shifting is proposed to estimate patient-specific lung motion during free breathing from 4D computed tomography data. The correspondence of the landmark points is determined from the Euclidean distance between the landmark points and the similarity between the local images that are centered at points at the same time. To ensure that the points in the source image correspond to the points in the target image during other phases, the virtual target points are first created and shifted based on the similarity between the local image centered at the source point and the local image centered at the virtual target point. Second, the target points are shifted by the constrained inverse function mapping the target points to the virtual target points. The source point set and shifted target point set are used to estimate the transformation function between the source image and target image. Results: The performances of the authors’ method are evaluated on two publicly available DIR-lab and POPI-model lung datasets. For computing target registration errors on 750 landmark points in six phases of the DIR-lab dataset and 37 landmark points in ten phases of the POPI-model dataset, the mean and standard deviation by the authors’ method are 1.11 and 1.11 mm, but they are 2.33 and 2.32 mm without considering image intensity, and 1.17 and 1.19 mm with sliding conditions. For the two phases of maximum inhalation and maximum exhalation in the DIR-lab dataset with 300 landmark points of each case, the mean and standard deviation of target registration errors on the 3000 landmark points of ten cases by the authors’ method are 1.21 and 1.04 mm. In the EMPIRE10 lung registration challenge, the authors’ method ranks 24 of 39. According to the index of the maximum shear stretch, the authors’ method is also efficient to describe the discontinuous motion at the lung boundaries. Conclusions: By establishing the correspondence of the landmark points in the source phase and the other target phases combining shape matching and image intensity matching together, the mismatching issue in the robust point matching algorithm is adequately addressed. The target registration errors are statistically reduced by shifting the virtual target points and target points. The authors’ method with consideration of sliding conditions can effectively estimate the discontinuous motion, and the estimated motion is natural. The primary limitation of the proposed method is that the temporal constraints of the trajectories of voxels are not introduced into the motion model. However, the proposed method provides satisfactory motion information, which results in precise tumor coverage by the radiation dose during radiotherapy.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2014

Statistics, Uncertainty, and Transmitted Variation

The field of Statistics provides methods for modeling and understanding data and making decisions in the presence of uncertainty. When examining response functions, variation present in the input variables will be transmitted via the response function to the output variables. This phenomenon can potentially have significant impacts on the uncertainty associated with results from subsequent analysis. This presentation will examine the concept of transmitted variation, its impact on designed experiments, and a method for identifying and estimating sources of transmitted variation in certain settings.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2016

Investigation of boundary-layer wind predictions during nocturnal low-level jet events using the Weather Research and Forecasting model

Simulations of two periods featuring three consecutive low level jet (LLJ) events in the US Upper Great Plains during the autumn of 2011 were conducted to explore the impacts of various setup configurations and physical process models on simulated flow parameters within the lowest 200 m above the surface, using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Sensitivities of simulated flow parameters to the horizontal and vertical grid spacing, planetary boundary layer (PBL) and land surface model (LSM) physics options, were assessed. Data from a Light Detection and Ranging (lidar) system, deployed to the Weather Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP; Finley et al. 2013) were used to evaluate the accuracy of simulated wind speed and direction at 80 m above the surface, as well as their vertical distributions between 120 and 40 m, covering the typical span of contemporary tall wind turbines. All of the simulations qualitatively captured the overall diurnal cycle of wind speed and stratification, producing LLJs during each overnight period, however large discrepancies occurred at certain times for each simulation in relation to the observations. 54-member ensembles encompassing changes of the above discussed configuration parameters displayed a wide range of simulated vertical distributions of wind speed and direction, and potential temperature, reflecting highly variable representations of stratification during the weakly stable overnight conditions. Root mean square error (RMSE) statistics show that different ensemble members performed better and worse in various simulated parameters at different times, with no clearly superior configuration . Simulations using a PBL parameterization designed specifically for the stable conditions investigated herein provided superior overall simulations of wind speed at 80 m, demonstrating the efficacy of targeting improvements of physical process models in areas of known deficiencies. However, the considerable magnitudes of the RMSE values of even the best performing simulations indicate ample opportunities for further improvements.

Mirocha, Jeff D.↗

DOE OSTI2019

Observation of a new structure near 10.75 GeV in the energy dependence of the e + e – → Υ(nS)π + π – (n = 1, 2, 3) cross sections

We report a new measurement of the e + e – → Υ(nS)π + π – (n = 1, 2, 3) cross sections at energies from 10.52 to 11.02 GeV using data collected with the Belle detector at the KEKB asymmetric-energy e + e – collider. We observe a new structure in the energy dependence of the cross sections; if described by a Breit-Wigner function its mass and width are found to be M = (10752.7 ± 5.9$^{+0.7}_{–1.1}$) MeV/c 2 and Γ = (35.5$^{+17.6+3.9}_{–11.3–3.3}$) MeV, where the first error is statistical and the second is systematic. The global significance of the new structure including systematic uncertainty is 5.2 standard deviations. We also find evidence for the e + e – → Υ(1S)π + π – process at the energy 10.52 GeV, which is below the $B\overline{B}$ threshold.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2015

Replication Concepts for Bioenergy Research Experiments

While there are some large and fundamental differences among disciplines related to the conversion of biomass to bioenergy, all scientific endeavors involve the use of bio- logical feedstocks. As such, nearly every scientific experiment conducted in this area, regardless of the specific discipline, is subject to random variation, some of which is unpredictable and unidentifiable (i.e., pure random variation such as variation among plots in an experiment, individuals within a plot, or laboratory samples within an experimental unit) while some is predictable and identifiable (repeatable variation, such as spatial or temporal patterns within an experimental field, a glasshouse or growth chamber, or among laboratory containers). Identifying the scale and sources of this variation relative to the specific hypotheses of interest is a critical component of designing good experiments that generate meaningful and believable hypothesis tests and inference statements. Many bioenergy feedstock experiments are replicated at an incorrect scale, typically by sampling feedstocks to estimate laboratory error or by completely ignoring the errors associated with growing feedstocks in an agricultural area at a field or farmland (micro- or macro-region) scale. As such, actual random errors inherent in experimental materials are frequently underestimated, with unrealistically low standard errors of statistical parameters (e.g., means), leading to improper inferences. The examples and guidelines set forth in this paper and many of the references cited are intended to form the general policy and guidelines for replication of bioenergy feedstock experiments to be published in BioEnergy Research .

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2016

Measurement of the total cross section from elastic scattering in pp collisions at s = 8 TeV with the ATLAS detector

A measurement of the total ppcross section at the LHC at √s=8TeV is presented. An integrated luminosity of 500 μb-1 was accumulated in a special run with high-β beam optics to measure the differential elastic cross section as a function of the Mandelstam momentum transfer variable t. The measurement is performed with the ALFA sub-detector of ATLAS. Using a fit to the differential elastic cross section in the -t range from 0.014GeV2 to 0.1GeV2 to extrapolate t→0, the total cross section, σtot(pp →X), is measured via the optical theorem to be σtot(pp→ X) = 96.07±0.18 (stat.)±0.85 (exp.)± 0.31 (extr.) mb, where the first error is statistical, the second accounts for all experimental systematic uncertainties and the last is related to uncertainties in the extrapolation t→0. In addition, the slope of the exponential function describing the elastic cross section at small t is determined to be B =19.74 ±0.05 (stat.) ±0.23 (syst.) GeV-2.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2017

Self-similarity of a Rayleigh–Taylor mixing layer at low Atwood number with a multimode initial perturbation

High-fidelity large eddy simulation (LES) of a low-Atwood number (A = 0.05) Rayleigh-Taylor mixing layer is performed using the tenth-order compact difference code Miranda. An initial multimode perturbation spectrum is specified in Fourier space as a function of mesh resolution such that a database of results is obtained in which each successive level of increased grid resolution corresponds approximately to one additional doubling of the mixing layer width, or generation. The database is then analyzed to determine approximate requirements for self-similarity, and a new metric is proposed to quantify how far a given simulation is from the limit of self-similarity. It is determined that mixing layer growth reaches a high degree of self-similarity after approximately 4.5 generations. Statistical convergence errors and boundary effects at late time, however, make it impossible to draw similar conclusions regarding the self-similar growth of more sensitive turbulence parameters. Finally, self-similar turbulence profiles from the LES database are compared with one-dimensional simulations using the k-L-a and BHR-2 Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) models. The k-L-a model, which is calibrated to reproduce a quadratic turbulence kinetic energy profile for a self-similar mixing layer, is found to be in better agreement with the LES than BHR-2 results.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Photometric redshift uncertainties in weak gravitational lensing shear analysis: models and marginalization

ABSTRACT Recovering credible cosmological parameter constraints in a weak lensing shear analysis requires an accurate model that can be used to marginalize over nuisance parameters describing potential sources of systematic uncertainty, such as the uncertainties on the sample redshift distribution n(z). Due to the challenge of running Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) in the high-dimensional parameter spaces in which the n(z) uncertainties may be parametrized, it is common practice to simplify the n(z) parametrization or combine MCMC chains that each have a fixed n(z) resampled from the n(z) uncertainties. In this work, we propose a statistically principled Bayesian resampling approach for marginalizing over the n(z) uncertainty using multiple MCMC chains. We self-consistently compare the new method to existing ones from the literature in the context of a forecasted cosmic shear analysis for the HSC three-year shape catalogue, and find that these methods recover statistically consistent error bars for the cosmological parameter constraints for predicted HSC three-year analysis, implying that using the most computationally efficient of the approaches is appropriate. However, we find that for data sets with the constraining power of the full HSC survey data set (and, by implication, those upcoming surveys with even tighter constraints), the choice of method for marginalizing over n(z) uncertainty among the several methods from the literature may modify the 1σ uncertainties on Ωm–S8 constraints by ∼4 per cent, and a careful model selection is needed to ensure credible parameter intervals.

Zhang, Tianqing (ORCID:000000025596198X)↗

DOE OSTI2019

The pattern speed of the Milky Way bar from transverse velocities

ABSTRACT We use the continuity equation to derive a method for measuring the pattern speed of the Milky Way’s bar/bulge from proper motion data. The method has minimal assumptions but requires complete coverage of the non-axisymmetric component in two of the three Galactic coordinates. We apply our method to the proper motion data from a combination of Gaia DR2 and VISTA Variables in the Via Lactea (VVV) to measure the pattern speed of the bar as $\Omega _\mathrm{p}=(41\pm 3)\, \mathrm{km\, s^{-1}\, kpc^{-1}}$ (where the error is statistical). This puts the corotation radius at $(5.7\pm 0.4)\, \mathrm{kpc}$, under the assumptions of the standard peculiar motion of the Sun and the absence of non-axisymmetric streaming in the Solar neighbourhood. The obtained result uses only data on the near side of the bar which produces consistent measurements of the distance and velocity of the centre of the Galaxy. Addition of the data on the far side of the bar pulls the pattern speed down to $\Omega _\mathrm{p}=(31\pm 1)\, \mathrm{km\, s^{-1}\, kpc^{-1}}$ but requires a lower transverse velocity for the Galactic centre than observed. This suggests systematics of $5-10\, \mathrm{km\, s^{-1}kpc^{-1}}$ dominate the uncertainty. We demonstrate using a dynamically formed bar/bulge simulation that even with the limited field of view of the VVV survey our method robustly recovers the pattern speed.

Sanders, Jason L.↗

DOE OSTI2018

Measurement of the $τ$ Michel parameters $\bar{\eta}$ and $\xi\kappa$ in the radiative leptonic decay $\tau^- \rightarrow \ell^- \nu_{\tau} \bar{\nu}_{\ell}\gamma$

We present a measurement of the Michel parameters of the τ lepton, η ¯ and ξκ, in the radiative leptonic decay τ - →ℓ - ν τ ν ¯ ℓγ using 711~fb -1 of collision data collected with the Belle detector at the KEKB e + e - collider. The Michel parameters are measured in an unbinned maximum likelihood fit to the kinematic distribution of e + e - →τ + τ - →(π + π 0 ν ¯ τ)(ℓ - ν τ ν ¯ ℓγ) (ℓ=e or μ). The measured values of the Michel parameters are η ¯ =-1.3±1.5±0.8 and ξκ=0.5±0.4±0.2, where the first error is statistical and the second is systematic. This is the first measurement of these parameters. These results are consistent with the Standard Model predictions within their uncertainties and constrain the coupling constants of the generalized weak interaction.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗