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At least 307 records · Page 17

Pluminate: Quantifying aerosol injection behavior from simulation, experimentation and observations

Marine aerosol injections are a key component in further understanding of both the potentials of deliberate injection for marine cloud brightening (MCB), a potential climate intervention (CI) strategy, and key aerosol-cloud interaction behaviors that currently form the largest uncertainty in global climate model (GCM) predictions of our climate. Since the rate of spread of aerosols in a marine environment directly translates to the effectiveness and ability of aerosol injections in impacting cloud radiative forcing, it is crucial to understand the spatial and temporal extent of injected-aerosol effects following direct injection into marine environments. The ubiquity of ship-injected aerosol tracks from satellite imagery renders observational validation of new parameterizations possible in 2D, however, 3D compatible data is more scarce, and necessary for the development of subgrid scale parameterizations of aerosol-cloud interactions in GCMs. This report introduces two novel parameterizations of atmospheric aerosol injection behavior suitable for both 3D (GCM-compatible) and 2D (observation-related) modeling. Their applicability is highlighted using a wealth of different observational data: small and larger scale salt-aerosol injection experiments conducted at SNL, 3D large eddy simulations of ship-injected aerosol tracks and 2D satellite images of ship tracks. The power of experimental data in enhancing knowledge of aerosol-cloud interactions is in particular emphasized by studying key aerosol microphysical and optical properties as observed through their mixing in cloud-like environments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Quantifying Uncertainties in Modeling Wind Resource Data from Different PBL Schemes in the WRF Model: A Case Study Over the Puerto Rico Region

This study examines the modeling uncertainty of wind resource data stemming from the use of various planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterizations available in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. WRF-based wind simulations spanning 20 years at 3-km resolution using 11 different PBL schemes are used to objectively investigate the uncertainty in modeling wind speed for land-based wind (LBW) and offshore wind (OSW) locations in Puerto Rico. The uncertainty in the wind modeling for the 20-year dataset is quantified using the spread index (SI) and standard deviation (SD). For virtual LBW and OSW sites, the SI and SD values are analyzed as calculated across various spatial and temporal scales. Because the PBL's atmospheric stability conditions can be characterized into two dominant categories, the study focuses on analyzing the SI and SD for daytime (mainly unstable PBL conditions) and nighttime (mainly stable PBL conditions). For wind shear (10 m-200 m) at the OSW and LBW sites, WRF-based numerical experiments indicate the following SI (or SD) ranges: 39%-94% (0.74 m/s-1.44 m/s) during the daytime for OSW, 50%-75% (0.68 m/s-1.19 m/s) during the daytime for LBW, 37%-60% (0.73 m/s-1.12 m/s) during the nighttime for OSW, and 57%-143 % (0.65 m/s-1.43 m/s) during the nighttime for LBW. While a high SI is observed when modeling LBW during the nighttime, there are notable modeling uncertainties during the daytime on the leeward side of the orographic barriers for Puerto Rico.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Characterization of the indoor far-field aerosol transmission in a model commercial office building

As businesses gradually reopen and employees return to work, the potential spread of SARS-CoV-2 and its variants through airborne transmission via the heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) systems of commercial building raises concerns. Since the general practice in commercial buildings is to use low-efficiency air filters and given that indoor air is generally recycled, the degree to which cross-zone aerosol transmission occurs is of interest. To quantify the cross-zone aerosol transmission, experiments were conducted using a synthetic test aerosol in the five zones on the first floor of a model commercial office building at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory. Because the synthetic aerosol was tagged with fluorescent salt, the aerosol generated from the source zone can be distinguished from the background aerosols due to its unique fluorescent signal. Data from cross-zone campaigns showed that submicron-aerosol transmission was higher than the micron aerosols. In campaigns with doors closed, the submicron aerosol transmission was less than 16% and less than 11% for micron aerosol transmission. Finally, opening the interior doors that connecting different zones can significantly enhance the aerosol transmission for zones at the close proximity to the source, but has less impact on those farther away.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Contrasting Parametric Sensitivities in Two Global Vegetation Models Using Parameter Perturbation Ensembles

Uncertainty in land model projections remains high and the roles of parametric and structural uncertainty are difficult to disentangle. To compare parametric sensitivity across model structures we present two parameter perturbation ensembles using the Community Land Model (CLM) operating in satellite phenology mode. The ensembles contrast two vegetation modules: (a) the default CLM vegetation module and (b) the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (CLM-FATES). We perturbed over 300 parameters and quantified their effects on biophysical fluxes globally and across biomes. Most parameters have minimal impact on biophysical fluxes, with only a few substantially influencing results. While both models exhibit similar parameter sensitivity for some fluxes, CLM-FATES shows larger spread in gross primary productivity (GPP), driven by strong sensitivity to carboxylation rate. CLM-FATES also shows a weaker GPP response to soil hydrology parameters and exhibits higher water use efficiency (WUE). Cross-model comparisons reveal similar sensitivities for some parameters (e.g., leaf dimension) but divergent responses to others (e.g., stomatal intercept), highlighting underlying structural differences. Differences in WUE and sensitivity to hydrology and stomatal conductance parameters underscore how model structure fundamentally alters parametric sensitivity. The data sets generated from these ensembles can be used to identify influential parameters and guide future calibration efforts.

Foster, A. C. [NSF National Center for Atmospheric↗

Evaluation of liquid cloud albedo susceptibility in E3SM using coupled eastern North Atlantic surface and satellite retrievals

The impact of aerosol number concentration on cloud albedo is a persistent source of spread in global climate predictions due to multi-scale, interactive atmospheric processes that remain difficult to quantify. We use 5 years of geostationary satellite and surface retrievals at the US Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) eastern North Atlantic (ENA) site in the Azores to evaluate the representation of liquid cloud albedo susceptibility for overcast cloud scenes in the DOE Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 (E3SMv1) and provide possible reasons for model–observation discrepancies. The overall distribution of surface 0.2 % CCN concentration values is reasonably simulated, but simulated liquid water path (LWP) is lower than observed and layer mean droplet concentration (N d ) comparisons are highly variable depending on the N d retrieval technique. E3SMv1's cloud albedo is greater than observed for given LWP and N d values due to a lower cloud effective radius than observed. However, the simulated albedo response to N d is suppressed due to a correlation between the solar zenith angle (SZA) and N d created by the seasonal cycle that is not observed. Controlling for this effect by examining the cloud optical depth (COD) shows that E3SMv1's COD response to CCN concentration is greater than observed. For surface-based retrievals, this is only true after controlling for cloud adiabaticity because E3SMv1's adiabaticities are much lower than observed. Assuming a constant adiabaticity in surface retrievals as done in top-of-atmosphere (TOA) retrievals narrows the retrieved ln N d distribution, which increases the cloud albedo sensitivity to ln N d to match the TOA sensitivity. The greater sensitivity of COD to CCN is caused by a greater Twomey effect in which the sensitivity of N d to CCN is greater than observed for TOA-retrieved N d , and once model–observation cloud adiabaticity differences are removed, this is also true for surface-retrieved N d . The LWP response to N d in E3SMv1 is overall negative as observed. Despite reproducing the observed LWP–N d relationship, observed clouds become much more adiabatic as N d increases, while E3SMv1 clouds do not, associated with more heavily precipitating clouds that are partially but not completely caused by deeper clouds and weaker inversions in E3SMv1. These cloud property differences indicate that the negative LWP–N d relationship is likely not caused by the same mechanisms in E3SMv1 and observations. The negative simulated LWP response also fails to mute the excessively strong Twomey effect, highlighting potentially important confounding factor effects that likely render the LWP–N d relationship non-causal. N d retrieval scales and assumptions, particularly related to cloud adiabaticity, contribute to substantial spreads in the model–observation comparisons, though enough consistency exists to suggest that aerosol activation, drizzle, and entrainment processes are critical areas to focus E3SMv1 development for improving the fidelity of aerosol–cloud interactions in E3SM.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Weak shock compaction on granular salt

This study conducted integrated experiments and computational modeling to investigate the speeds of a developing shock within granular salt and analyzed the effect of various impact velocities up to 245 m/s. Experiments were conducted on table salt utilizing a novel setup with a considerable bore length for the sample, enabling visualization of a moving shock wave. Experimental analysis using particle image velocimetry enabled the characterization of shock velocity and particle velocity histories. Mesoscale simulations further enabled advanced analysis of the shock wave’s substructure. In simulations, the shock front’s precursor was shown to have a heterogeneous nature, which is usually modeled as uniform in continuum analyses. The presence of force chains results in a spread out of the shock precursor over a greater ramp distance. With increasing impact velocity, the shock front thickness reduces, and the precursor of the shock front becomes less heterogeneous. Furthermore, mesoscale modeling suggests the formation of force chains behind the shock front, even under the conditions of weak shock. This study presents novel mesoscale simulation results on salt corroborated with data from experiments, thereby characterizing the compaction front speeds in the weak shock regime.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Coupled Climate Simulations With E3SM‐MMF

Simulations of the recent historical period from 1950 to 2014 are conducted with E3SM‐MMF, which uses an embedded 2D cloud resolving model that runs efficiently on GPUs in place of traditional parameterizations for cloud and turbulence. Analysis of the climate and variability reveal several aspects where E3SM‐MMF produces smaller biases compared to E3SMv2, including better agreement with the observed evolution of global mean surface temperature, although the representation of ENSO is too weak and fast. Three idealized abrupt CO 2 experiments were also conducted to assess climate sensitivity and feedbacks. These yield three estimates of effective climate sensitivity (4.38, 5.21, and 6.06 K), with a corresponding spread in the shortwave cloud feedbacks. These estimates are on the higher end of sensitivity estimates from CMIP ensembles, and the spread indicates substantial state‐dependent feedbacks. These results demonstrate how multiscale modeling framework (MMF) models can be used for climate relevant experiments and projections by leveraging modern GPU enabled computational platforms. The unique qualities of E3SM‐MMF shown in previous literature are largely still present, but various instances of reduced biases suggest that MMF models have utility in improving future projections.

E3SM↗

COVID-19 Joint Pandemic Modeling and Analysis Platform

The non-pharmaceutical intervention to reduce the impact and spread of COVID-19 requires the development of policies and guidance through a collaborative effort among government, academia, medicine, and citizens. To operationalize this effort, we have developed an all-encompassing situational awareness platform that can process multi-modal and multi-source data allowing informed decision making. Besides, showing the current spread of infection, the platform also captures the impact of human dynamics on the infection spread, location, and availability of critical infrastructure, prediction, and high-performance computing driven simulation. The platform is extensible, allowing third-party integration and services to consume the curated data and analytics in near real-time. We believe the platform will augment critical decision making for reducing the impact and spread of the pandemic.

Thakur, Gautam↗

A Model of Narrative Reinforcement on a Dual-Layer Social Network

Widespread integration of social media into daily life has fundamentally changed the way society communicates, and, as a result, how individuals develop attitudes, personal philosophies, and worldviews. The excess spread of disinformation and misinformation due to this increased connectedness and streamlined communication has been extensively studied, simulated, and modeled. Less studied is the interaction of many pieces of misinformation, and the resulting formation of attitudes. We develop a framework for the simulation of attitude formation based on exposure to multiple cognitions. We allow a set of cognitions with some implicit relational topology to spread on a social network, which is defined with separate layers to specify online and offline relationships. An individual’s opinion on each cognition is determined by a process inspired by the Ising model for ferromagnetism. We conduct experimentation using this framework to test the effect of topology, connectedness, and social media adoption on the ultimate prevalence of and exposure to certain attitudes.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Quantum speed limit for the out-of-time-ordered correlator from an open-system perspective

Scrambling, the delocalization of initially localized quantum information, is commonly characterized by the out-of-time-ordered correlator (OTOC). Employing the OTOC–Renyi-2 entropy theorem, we derive a quantum speed limit for the OTOC, which sets a lower bound for the rate with which information can be scrambled. This bound becomes particularly tractable by describing the scrambling of information in a closed quantum system as an effective decoherence process of an open system interacting with an environment. We prove that decay of the OTOC can be bounded by the strength of the system-environment coupling and two-point environmental correlation functions. We validate our analytic bound numerically using the nonintegrable transverse field Ising model. Furthermore, our results provide a universal and model-agnostic quantitative framework for understanding the dynamical limits of information spreading across quantum many-body physics, condensed matter systems, and engineered quantum platforms.

Fermions↗

A liquid stratification model to predict failure in thermally damaged EBW detonators

In previous work, commercially available downward facing exploding bridgewire detonators (EBWs) were exposed to elevated temperatures. These detonators were then initiated using a firing set which discharged a high amplitude short duration electrical pulse into a thin gold bridgewire. Responses of the detonators were measured using photonic doppler velocimetry (PDV) and high-speed photography. A time delay of 4 μs between EBW initiation and first movement of an output flyer separated operable detonators from inoperable detonators or duds. Here, we propose a simple method to determine detonator operability from the calculated state of the detonator at the time the firing set is initiated. The failure criterion is based on the gap distance between the exploding bridgewire (EBW) and the adjacent initiating explosive within the detonator which is low-density pentaerythritol tetranitrate (PETN) that melts between 413-415 K (140-142 ºC). The gap forms as PETN melts and flows to the bottom of the input pellet. Melting of PETN is modeled thermodynamically as an energy sink using a normal distribution spread over a temperature range between the onset temperature of 413 K and the ending temperature of 415 K. The extent of the melt is determined from the average temperature of the PETN. The PETN liquid is assumed to occupy the interstitial gas volume in the lower part of the input pellet. The vacated volume from the relocated liquid forms the gap between the EBW and the PETN. The remaining sandwiched layer consists of solid PETN particles and gas filling interstitial volume. We predict that a threshold gap between 17-27 μm separates properly functioning detonators from duds.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Characterization of partial wetting by CMAS droplets using multiphase many-body dissipative particle dynamics and data-driven discovery based on PINNs

The molten sand that is a mixture of calcia, magnesia, alumina and silicate, known as CMAS, is characterized by its high viscosity, density and surface tension. The unique properties of CMAS make it a challenging material to deal with in high-temperature applications, requiring innovative solutions and materials to prevent its buildup and damage to critical equipment. Here, we use multiphase many-body dissipative particle dynamics simulations to study the wetting dynamics of highly viscous molten CMAS droplets. The simulations are performed in three dimensions, with varying initial droplet sizes and equilibrium contact angles. We propose a parametric ordinary differential equation (ODE) that captures the spreading radius behaviour of the CMAS droplets. The ODE parameters are then identified based on the physics-informed neural network (PINN) framework. Subsequently, the closed-form dependency of parameter values found by the PINN on the initial radii and contact angles are given using symbolic regression. Finally, we employ Bayesian PINNs (B-PINNs) to assess and quantify the uncertainty associated with the discovered parameters. In brief, this study provides insight into spreading dynamics of CMAS droplets by fusing simple parametric ODE modelling and state-of-the-art machine-learning techniques.

Mechanics↗

A geopositioned and evidence-graded pan-species compendium of Mayaro virus occurrence

Mayaro Virus (MAYV) is an emerging health threat in the Americas that can cause febrile illness as well as debilitating arthralgia or arthritis. To better understand the geographic distribution of MAYV risk, we developed a georeferenced database of MAYV occurrence based on peer-reviewed literature and unpublished reports. Here we present this compendium, which includes both point and polygon locations linked to occurrence data documented from its discovery in 1954 until 2022. We describe all methods used to develop the database including data collection, georeferencing, management and quality-control. We also describe a customized grading system used to assess the quality of each study included in our review. The result is a comprehensive, evidence-graded database of confirmed MAYV occurrence in humans, non-human animals, and arthropods to-date, containing 262 geo-positioned occurrences in total. This database - which can be updated over time - may be useful for local spill-over risk assessment, epidemiological modelling to understand key transmission dynamics and drivers of MAYV spread, as well as identification of major surveillance gaps.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Desmearing Bonse–Hart USANS data using Bayesian Gaussian process regression

Ultra-small-angle neutron scattering (USANS) enables access to micrometer-scale structures but is intrinsically affected by strong, anisotropic resolution smearing arising from slit-geometry optics. As a result, recovery of the intrinsic scattering intensity constitutes an ill-posed inverse problem, and commonly used iterative desmearing methods lack rigorous uncertainty quantification. We present a Bayesian desmearing framework for slit-geometry USANS based on Gaussian process regression. In this approach, the scattering intensity is modeled as a smooth random function, and the instrumental point spread function is incorporated explicitly as a forward operator. The resulting formulation yields a closed-form maximum a posteriori solution with well-defined credibility intervals. Computational benchmarks and experimental validation using combined USANS and small-angle neutron scattering (SANS) measurements demonstrate that the framework enables stable desmearing, suppresses experimental noise, and preserves physically meaningful structural features under realistic conditions.

Tung, Chi-Huan [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORN↗

Volumetric imaging of the 3D orientation of cellular structures with a polarized fluorescence light-sheet microscope

Polarized fluorescence microscopy is a valuable tool for measuring molecular orientations in biological samples, but techniques for recovering three-dimensional orientations and positions of fluorescent ensembles are limited. We report a polarized dual-view light-sheet system for determining the diffraction-limited three-dimensional distribution of the orientations and positions of ensembles of fluorescent dipoles that label biological structures. We share a set of visualization, histogram, and profiling tools for interpreting these positions and orientations. We model the distributions based on the polarization-dependent efficiency of excitation and detection of emitted fluorescence, using coarse-grained representations we call orientation distribution functions (ODFs). We apply ODFs to create physics-informed models of image formation with spatio-angular point-spread and transfer functions. We use theory and experiment to conclude that light-sheet tilting is a necessary part of our design for recovering all three-dimensional orientations. We use our system to extend known two-dimensional results to three dimensions in FM1-43-labeled giant unilamellar vesicles, fast-scarlet-labeled cellulose in xylem cells, and phalloidin-labeled actin in U2OS cells. Additionally, we observe phalloidin-labeled actin in mouse fibroblasts grown on grids of labeled nanowires and identify correlations between local actin alignment and global cell-scale orientation, indicating cellular coordination across length scales.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

Dark Energy Survey Year 6 results: cell-based coadds and METADETECTION weak lensing shape catalogue

We present the metadetection weak lensing galaxy shape catalogue from the 6-yr Dark Energy Survey (DES Y6) imaging data. This data set is the final release from DES, spanning 4422 deg 2 of the southern sky. We describe how the catalogue was constructed, including the two new major processing steps, cell-based image coaddition, and shear measurements with metadetection. The DES Y6 M etadetection weak lensing shape catalogue consists of 151 922 791 galaxies detected over riz bands, with an effective number density of n eff = 8.22 galaxies per arcmin 2 and shape noise of σ e = 0.29. We carry out a suite of validation tests on the catalogue, including testing for point spread function (PSF) leakage, testing for the impact of PSF modelling errors, and testing the correlation of the shear measurements with galaxy, PSF, and survey properties. In addition to demonstrating that our catalogue is robust for weak lensing science, we use the DES Y6 image simulation suite to estimate the overall multiplicative shear bias of our shear measurement pipeline. We find no detectable multiplicative bias at the roughly half-per cent level, with m = (3.4 ± 6.1) x 10 –3 , at 3σ uncertainty. This is the first time both cell-based coaddition and Metadetection algorithms are applied to observational data, paving the way to the Stage-IV weak lensing surveys.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Epidemiologic and economic considerations regarding persistently infected cattle during vaccinate-to-live strategies for control of foot-and-mouth disease in FMD-free regions

Development of a foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) carrier state following FMD virus (FMDV) infection is a well-established phenomenon in cattle. However, the proportion of cattle likely to become carriers and the duration of the carrier state at a herd or population-level are incompletely understood. The objective of this study was to examine the epidemiologic and economic impacts of vaccination-to-live strategy in a disease-free region or country. We developed and simulated scenarios of FMD spread and control in the US livestock population, which included depopulation for a limited period, followed by a vaccinate-to-live strategy with strong biosecurity and movement restrictions. Six scenarios of FMD spread and control were simulated in the InterSpread Plus (ISP) modeling tool. Data on the number of infected and depopulated cattle (by operation types) from ISP model runs were used to estimate the monthly number of infected but not depopulated (potential carrier) cattle after the infection. Using available literature data on the FMD carrier state, we estimated the monthly proportion of carrier cattle (from infected but not depopulated cattle) over time following infection. Among the simulated scenarios, the median (25th, 75th percentile) number of infected cattle ranged from 43,217 (42,819, 55,274) head to 148,907 (75,819, 205,350) head, and the epidemic duration ranged from 20 (11, 30) to 76 (38, 136) days. In general, larger outbreaks occurred when depopulation was carried out through longer periods, and the onset of the vaccination was late (p > 0.05). The estimated proportion of surviving cattle, which were infected and not depopulated and had the potential to become persistently infected ranged from 14 to 35% of total infected cattle. Production losses in beef and dairy sectors were higher when outbreaks started in multiple states simultaneously, but production losses were small compared to trade losses and consumer avoidance losses. These results can be used to inform the consideration of a vaccinate-to-live strategy for FMD outbreaks and the development of appropriate post-outbreak management strategies. Furthermore, this output will enable a more detailed examination of the epidemiologic and economic implications of allowing convalescent cattle to survive and remain in production chains after FMD outbreaks in FMD-free regions.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Evaluation of CMIP6 GCMs Over the CONUS for Downscaling Studies

Despite the necessity of Global Climate Models (GCMs) sub-selection in downscaling studies, an objective approach for their selection is currently lacking. Building on the previously established concepts in GCMs evaluation frameworks, we develop a weighted averaging technique to remove the redundancy in the evaluation criteria and rank 37 GCMs from the sixth phase of the Coupled Models Intercomparison Project over the contiguous United States. GCMs are rated based on their average performance across 66 evaluation measures in the historical period (1981–2014) after each metric is weighted between zero and one, depending on its uniqueness. The robustness of the outcome is tested by repeating the process with the empirical orthogonal function analysis in which each GCM is ranked based on its sum of distances from the reference in the principal component space. The two methodologies work in contrasting ways to remove the metrics redundancy but eventually develop similar GCMs rankings. A disparity in GCMs' behavior related to their sensitivity to the size of the evaluation suite is observed, highlighting the need for comprehensive multi-variable GCMs evaluation at varying timescales for determining their skillfulness over a region. The sub-selection goal is to use a representative set of skillful models over the region of interest without substantial overlap in their future climate responses and modeling errors in representing historical climate. Additional analyses of GCMs' independence and spread in their future projections provide the necessary information to objectively select GCMs while keeping all aspects of necessity in view.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗