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At least 307 records · Page 17

Using High-Resolution NSRDB Data to Evaluate Cloud Mask Forecast from WRF-Solar EPS

Validating spatiotemporal distributions of cloud forecasts using numerical weather prediction (NWP) models is difficult as this requires high-quality cloud-property at significantly high spatial and temporal resolution over extended periods of time. Observations of cloud properties, such as cloud mask, cloud optical thickness, and cloud type, are vital for assessing the capability of NWP models to forecast various types of clouds. Using the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB), this research evaluates ensemble cloud-mask predictions from the WRF-Solar ensemble prediction system (WRF-Solar EPS). From the WRF-Solar EPS, day-ahead solar forecasts for the contiguous United States (CONUS) for 2018 are simulated. Given the NSRDB data is accessible at a resolution of 2 km, we can calculate the cloud fraction across the 9-km grid of WRF-Solar EPS. This allows us to spatially assess the cloud-mask forecasts using two methods against the high-resolution NSRDB: (a) considering all 2-km NSRDB clouds in the forecast domain (EMAll), and (b) using a minimum cloud fraction threshold of 50% to designate a pixel as cloudy (EMP50). The low-resolution cloud masks from WRF-Solar EPS are evaluated directly against the cloud-resolving scale gridded observations from NSRDB using EMAll. With EMP50, we presume that scenes with less than 50% cloud cover from the 2-km NSRDB are clear. Thus, this assessment approach allows for a fair comparison with WRF-Solar EPS resolved to a 9-km grid. A method of point-by-point verification is used to evaluate dichotomous (yes/no) cloud mask predictions against the NSRDB. For each pixel of model extent, cloud frequency and traditional metrics (e.g., probability of detection, false alarm rate, and hit rate, etc.) are computed and compared with satellite-derived data sets. Mismatched cloud frequency (MCF) is computed to measure the present capability of WRF-Solar EPS in representing various types of clouds, which are categorized using three levels of cloud top height (CTH) and cloud optical depth (COD) across entire CONUS. Preliminary results show that the WRF-Solar EPS provides MCF values ranging from 9% to 46%, 16% to 33%, and 8% to 27% for low-level, middle-level, and high-level clouds, respectively, for three CTHs. The model produces MCFs ranging from 27% to 46%, 13% to 34%, and 8% to 19% for thin, medium-thickness, and thick clouds, respectively, for three CODs. The presentation will include a detailed description of the current outcomes as well as potential future extensions. The evaluation approach established in this study is readily extensible to the evaluation of cloud predictions from different ensemble NWP models. In addition, the findings of the suggested evaluation technique aid in identifying model weaknesses and will ultimately lead to advances in WRF-Solar EPS's skill in predicting clouds and solar irradiance.

cloud mask forecast↗

Systematic Independent Validation of Inner Heliospheric Models

This presentation is the first in a series which will provide independent validation of community models of the outer corona and inner heliosphere. In this work we establish a set of measures to be used in validating this group of models. We use these procedures to generate a comprehensive set of results from the Wang- Sheeley-Arge (WSA) model which will be used as a baseline, or reference, against which to compare all other models. We also run a test of the validation procedures by applying them to a small set of results produced by the ENLIL Magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) model. In future presentations we will validate other models currently hosted by the Community Coordinated Modeling Center(CCMC), including a comprehensive validation of the ENLIL model. The Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) model is widely used to model the Solar wind, and is used by a number of agencies to predict Solar wind conditions at Earth as much as four days into the future. Because it is so important to both the research and space weather forecasting communities, it is essential that its performance be measured systematically, and independently. In this paper we offer just such an independent and systematic validation. We report skill scores for the model's predictions of wind speed and IMF polarity for a large set of Carrington rotations. The model was run in all its routinely used configurations. It ingests line of sight magnetograms. For this study we generated model results for monthly magnetograms from the National Solar Observatory (SOLIS), Mount Wilson Observatory and the GONG network, spanning the Carrington rotation range from 1650 to 2068. We compare the influence of the different magnetogram sources, performance at quiet and active times, and estimate the effect of different empirical wind speed tunings. We also consider the ability of the WSA model to identify sharp transitions in wind speed from slow to fast wind. These results will serve as a baseline against which to compare future versions of the model

MacNeice, P. J.↗

Evaluation of Nanostructured β-Mn 2 V 2 O 7 Thin Films as Photoanodes for Photoelectrochemical Water Oxidation

β-Mn 2 V 2 O 7 (β-MVO) was recently reported to be a promising candidate for photoelectrochemical (PEC) water splitting, with a suitable band gap and band edge positions and reasonable stability and photoactivity in preliminary tests in alkaline solution. Here, we present an in-depth evaluation of the PEC performance and stability of phase-pure nanostructured β-Mn 2 V 2 O 7 films made by calcination of a spin-cast molecular ink. We show that β-Mn 2 V 2 O 7 dissolves in pure water, corrodes in aqueous electrolytes at pH 7 and 9, and converts to amorphous manganese (hydr)oxides within minutes at pH 13. Our β-Mn 2 V 2 O 7 films yielded only miniscule photocurrents (~uA cm -2 ) for the oxidation of iodide, sulfite, or water and the reduction of iodate or water in borate- and phosphate-buffered electrolytes at pH 7 and 9, the oxidation of [Fe(CN) 6 ] 4- or water at pH 13, and the oxidation of bromide in acetonitrile, regardless of film calcination temperature and time, film thickness, and illumination geometry. Minimal photoactivity was observed even in electrolytes in which film degradation was insignificant over the duration of the PEC tests. Ultrafast transient absorption spectroscopy shows that the poor photoactivity is likely the result of fast hole trapping and recombination at the MVO surface that leaves few free charge carriers beyond the picosecond time scale. Given its poor charge transport/extraction and chemical stability, native nanostructured β-Mn 2 V 2 O 7 is ineffective for solar water splitting and future research on this material should focus on the development of superior syntheses and film morphologies, MVO alloys, heterostructures, and surface coatings to alleviate recombination and boost operational stability. This work underscores the importance of careful follow-up studies of materials identified as "hits" in combinatorial materials discovery campaigns.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Solar White Thermal Coating for Cryogenic Propulsion Systems

NASA is currently conducting research into the potential of storing cryogenic fluid in low Earth orbit (LEO). Having cryogenic propellant readily available for high-performance propulsion systems can be very beneficial for deep space missions in the near future. One of the key challenges to storing cryogenic fluid in LEO is minimizing boil-off. To address the challenge, NASA is evaluating new concepts in thermal insulation. One recent experimental study evaluated the feasibility of using Yttrium Oxide (Y2O3), formed into tiles or spray coating that can potentially be used as a thermal coating for cryogenic propellant storage applications in deep space. Due to its temperature and wavelength dependent optical properties, this “solar white” material can reflect a vast majority of the Sun’s radiative energy while having a very high infrared emissivity for rejecting heat to deep space. As a part of the material development and proof of concept testing, multiple tests have been run at KSC and GRC to demonstrate the performance of the material. At GRC, the tests were run using the Deep Space Solar Simulator (DS3) which contains a thermal vacuum chamber in which the solar white sample was exposed to a deep space environment (< 10 K, optically dense walls) while under full illumination via solar lamp. In order to improve the use of the test results and apply them to spacecraft, there is a need to be able to model the material properties within NASA’s standard thermal modeling tools. As such, it was set out to verify a thermal model of one of the experiments using Thermal Desktop with Sinda. The thermal model of the DS3 test setup includes the solar white sample along with a solar lamp simulator capable of outputting heat at varying wavelengths. The model was developed in order to validate the test results and also to help predict results that will be obtained in future tests. This paper will review the modeling methods and thermal analysis results for various test cases that were run within the DS3 facility.

Cryogenic↗

Proton-Radiation Tolerant All-Perovskite Multijunction Solar Cells

Radiation-resistant but cost-efficient, flexible, and ultralight solar sheets with high specific power (W g -1 ) are the "holy grail" of the new space revolution, powering private space exploration, low-cost missions, and future habitats on Moon and Mars. Herein, this study investigates an all-perovskite tandem photovoltaic (PV) technology that uses an ultrathin active layer (1.56 micrometers) but offers high power conversion efficiency, and discusses its potential for high-specific-power applications. This study demonstrates that all-perovskite tandems possess a high tolerance to the harsh radiation environment in space. The tests under 68 MeV proton irradiation show negligible degradation (<6%) at a dose of 10 13 p + cm -2 where even commercially available radiation-hardened space PV degrade >22%. Using high spatial resolution photoluminescence (PL) microscopy, it is revealed that defect clusters in GaAs are responsible for the degradation of current space-PV. By contrast, negligible reduction in PL of the individual perovskite subcells even after the highest dose studied is observed. Studying the intensity-dependent PL of bare low-gap and high-gap perovskite absorbers, it is shown that the V OC , fill factor, and efficiency potentials remain identically high after irradiation. Radiation damage of all-perovskite tandems thus has a fundamentally different origin to traditional space PV.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Technoeconomic feasibility of photovoltaic recycling

Abstract Photovoltaic (PV) modules are a key technology to aid the imminent transition from carbon‐based energy. End‐of‐life crystalline silicon PV modules produce a waste stream that is predominantly landfilled due to the recycling challenges associated with PV reuse economics. Current practices recycle the aluminum frame and repurpose the junction box but landfill the rest of the module. The primary challenge in recycling the remaining module is finding a technoeconomically viable method for separating the silicon and glass from the ethylene vinyl acetate (EVA) layers. This issue will rapidly expand with time as it is estimated that flat glass production for solar panels is currently unable to meet the demand for PV. Current literature suggests that chemical, thermal, and mechanical delamination offer economically feasible solutions under ideal circumstances. In this work we evaluate these methods using end‐of‐life panels and assess the economic viability. The technoeconomic study presented here suggests the most economically viable option for disposing of end‐of‐life solar panels, given current technology, is landfilling. Thermal delamination may offer an alternative route in the future. Financial incentives, which can be quantified with this work, may be required to kickstart PV recycling to help bridge externalities around environmental impact.

Crespo, Beatrice↗

Electrification Futures Study: Operational Analysis of U.S. Power Systems with Increased Electrification and Demand-Side Flexibility

This report provides a high-resolution U.S. national-scale power systems assessment of scenarios with widespread electrification using detailed grid simulations. We find that high electrification scenarios envisioned in the Electrification Futures Study can be operated at the hourly level to meet future increased levels of electrified demand and, under the most aggressive cases, with up to 66% of generation from wind and solar technologies. The analysis also examines the value of flexibility from demand by supporting system operability under high electrification and high renewable systems. Demand-side flexibility—especially flexibility from newly electrified loads—is found to enhance the operational efficiency by reducing VRE curtailment and increasing utilization of generators with lower operating costs. It can also enhance the ability of electrification to decarbonize the energy sector.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

The Goddard program of gamma ray transient astronomy

Gamma ray burst studies are reviewed. The past results, present status and future expectations are outlined regarding endeavors using experiments on balloons, IMP-6 and -7, OGO-3, ISEE-1 and -3, Helios-2, Solar Maximum Mission, the Einstein Observatory, Solar Polar and the Gamma Ray Observatory, and with the interplanetary gamma ray burst networks, to which some of these spacecraft sensors contribute. Additional emphasis is given to the recent discovery of a new type of gamma ray transient, detected on 1979 March 5.

Cline, T. L.↗

Development of an Ultraflex-Based Thin Film Solar Array for Space Applications

As flexible thin film photovoltaic (FTFPV) cell technology is developed for space applications, integration into a viable solar array structure that optimizes the attributes of this cell technology is critical. An advanced version of ABLE'sS UltraFlex solar array platform represents a near-term, low-risk approach to demonstrating outstanding array performance with the implementation of FTFPV technology. Recent studies indicate that an advanced UltraFlex solar array populated with 15% efficient thin film cells can achieve over 200 W/kg EOL. An overview on the status of hardware development and the future potential of this technology is presented.

White, Steve↗

Future NASA plans for exobiology and solar system exploration

The prominence of exobiology as a part of the NASA program in solar system exploration reached its peak during the Viking missions of the mid-1970's. Even before those missions were finished, the Exobiology Program had been transferred out of the Division responsible for solar system exploration, and many of the direct ties to future missions became more difficult to make, providing a bureaucratic impediment to the conduct of exobiology research in space. Early in 1993, the Exobiology Program was brought back in to the Solar System Exploration Division, as an integral part of NASA's program to study this and other solar systems. As such, the Program stands to gain from an overall broad investment in missions that will study Mars, small bodies such as asteroids and comets, and outer planetary bodies such as Saturn, Titan, and even Pluto. Additional opportunities may be forthcoming on the Moon and elsewhere in Earth-orbit. Ground-based studies will continue to be an important foundation for work in space, while additional effects will be continue to use ground-based astronomical instruments to study other planetary systems, and to search for life on planets around other stars. This paper provides a current planning and budgetary prospectus on the future of Exobiology in NASA.

Rummel, John D.↗

Simplified High-Temperature Molten Salt CSP Plant Preconceptual Design

State of the art concentrating solar power plants generally rely on a two-tank system with a large central tower. These plants employ nitrate salts that are limited to approximately 565°C in practice. A novel system arrangement is proposed using molten salt as the heat transfer and energy storage media in a single thermocline storage tank with an integral heat exchanger to the power cycle. The system has unique features that enable temperatures higher than 565°C while reducing costs. This study explores the considerations for the concept and presents a preconceptual point design for a 5 MWt system capable of generating 100 MWt per day with 12 hours of thermal energy storage. This study also examines the potential operation of the system with nitrate and higher temperature chloride salts. Both salt systems appear promising and future concept maturation is recommended.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Unifying the Validation of Ambient Solar Wind Models

Progress in space weather research and awareness needs community-wide strategies and procedures to evaluate our modeling assets. Here we present the activities of the Ambient Solar Wind Validation Team embedded in the COSPAR ISWAT initiative. We aim to bridge the gap between model developers and end-users to provide the community with an assessment of the state-of-the-art in solar wind forecasting. To this end, we develop an open online platform for validating solar wind models by comparing their solutions with in situ spacecraft measurements. The online platform will allow the space weather community to test the quality of state-of-the-art solar wind models with unified metrics providing an unbiased assessment of progress over time. In this study, we propose a metadata architecture and recommend community-wide forecasting goals and validation metrics. We conclude with a status update of the online platform and outline future perspectives.

Space weather↗

Thermal Analysis of a Solid Particle Light-Trapping Planar Cavity Receiver Using Computational Fluid Dynamics

Concentrated solar power (CSP) is one of the most effective ways of harnessing solar power to create efficient, durable, and resilient energy systems. This study entails thermal modeling and analysis of a novel central tower receiver configuration. This receiver uses solid particles as the heat transfer fluid (HTF), a promising option for third-generation CSP systems. The configuration considered here is the light-trapping planar cavity receiver (LTPCR) introduced by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. While heat transfer studies of various LTPCR subsystems have been done, system-level thermal analysis of the LTPCR receiver has not been attempted. This study also presents important sensitivity analyses of the operating parameters of the CSP system, which can help guide the design of future central tower receivers. This study employs Ansys Fluent as a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) tool to model fluid dynamics and heat transfer in the receiver, intending to quantify its thermal performance. The model seamlessly integrates Monte Carlo ray tracing data, which generates absorbed solar flux profiles from the heliostat field design, with the heat transfer characteristics of the fluidized particle bed. This unified model is designed to accurately predict the thermal behavior of the LTPCR. Analysis of preliminary results reveals that the primary loss mechanisms are radiative and natural convective losses, in that order. Based on observations from a baseline case, several strategies are suggested and numerically tested. These solutions include selective cooling of high-temperature regions and manipulation of particle bed parameters. Selective cooling of high-temperature regions reduced the peak temperature by 151 degrees C and decreased thermal losses by 0.9%. Improving the particle-wall heat transfer coefficient (P-W HTC) of the particle bed decreased the thermal losses by 1.7% and decreased the peak temperatures by 57 degrees C. Decreasing the particle inlet temperature (PIT) also reduced thermal losses by 3.5% and decreased peak temperatures by 29 degrees C. Compounding these strategies improved the thermal losses of the receiver from 13.5% in the baseline case to 7.5%. Additionally, the study explores the variation in thermal performance across different locations of the receiver, where a variation of thermal losses from 12.9% to 17.3% is found. This allows a comprehensive evaluation of potential improvements in efficiency and temperature management.

computational fluid dynamics↗

Mission applications for advanced photovoltaic solar arrays

The suitability of the Advanced Photovoltaic Solar Array (APSA) for future space missions was examined by considering the impact on the spacecraft system in general. The lightweight flexible blanket array system was compared to rigid arrays and a radio-isotope thermoelectric generator (RTG) static power source for a wide range of assumed future earth orbiting and interplanetary mission applications. The study approach was to establish assessment criteria and a rating scheme, identify a reference mission set, perform the power system assessment for each mission, and develop conclusions and recommendations to guide future APSA technology development. The authors discuss the three selected power sources, the assessment criteria and rating definitions, and the reference missions. They present the assessment results in a convenient tabular format. It is concluded that the three power sources examined, APSA, conventional solar arrays, and RTGs, can be considered to complement each other. Each power technology has its own range of preferred applications.

Stella, Paul M.↗

Solar-Planetary Relationships: Magnetospheric Physics

The quadrennium 1975-1978 was a period of great advance for solar-wind studies, a period that combined exploration of new regions with increased maturity in established fields of study. The Helios, Pioneer, and Voyager spacecraft have been exploring the inner and outer regions of the solar wind. There has been a rebirth of the study of possible relations between solar variability and Earth's climate and weather, stimulated largely by Eddy's investigation of the Maunder Minimum; the solar wind may well prove to be a significant link in solar-terrestrial relations. Unique coronal data from the SKYLAB 1973-1974 mission, in combination with satellite and ground-based observations, provided the basis for identification of coronal holes as the main source of highspeed solar wind. The interplanetary medium has continued to serve as a laboratory for the study of plasma processes that cannot yet be studied in terrestrial laboratories, providing insights of potential importance both for controlled fusion research and for astrophysics. It is ironic that such a productive period, the legacy of many past space missions, was also a time of severely limited opportunity for new space investigations; the outlook for the future is equally austere. Especially regrettable is the dearth of career opportunities for young scientists in this field; comparison of the bibliography of this report with that of its predecessor 4 years ago shows few new names. Despite such problems, research has continued with enthusiasm and much has been learned. The present report will survey selected topics related to the origin, expansion, and acceleration of the solar wind and the plasma physics of the interplanetary medium. Companion reports deal with a number of closely related topics, including the heliocentric distance and latitude variation of the solar wind and its fluctuations topology of the interplanetary magnetic field morphology of solar-wind streams and shocks, sunweather studies, and interplanetary manifestations of type-3 bursts. Of the subjects that fall within the scope of this report, the study of the relationship between coronal holes and solar-wind streams, and the associated revision of our ideas about solar wind acceleration and heating, have had the most impact; hence I review these topics in considerable detail. In addition, I discuss the topics of hydromagnetic waves and turbulence, and interplanetary electrons, as items of particular importance during the past quadrennium.

Barnes, Aaron↗

Solar Electric Propulsion System Integration Technology (SEPSIT). Volume 1: Technical summary

The use of solar electric propulsion as a means of exploring space beyond the reach of ballistic missions was investigated. The method used was to study the application of this new propulsion technology to a future flight project. A 1980 Encke rendezvous mission was chosen because a design successful for Encke could be used for less difficult, but scientifically rewarding, missions. Design points for the mission and for the thrust subsystem were specified. The baseline-vehicle design was defined. A preliminary functional description document for the thrust subsystem was originated. Analyses were performed in support of the design point selection for the SEP-module thrust subsystem to specify parameters, to clarify and optimize the interface requirements, and to assure feasibility of some of the more critical technological aspects of SEP application.

Gardner, J. A.↗

Science and technology results from the OSS-1 Payload on the Space Shuttle

The OSS-1 Payload of nine experiments was carried on the STS-3 Space Shuttle flight in March of 1982. The OSS-1 Payload contained four instruments that evaluated specific aspects of the Orbiter's environment, including the levels of particulate, gaseous and electromagnetic emissions given off by the Orbiter, and the interactions between the Orbiter and the surrounding plasma. In addition to these environmental observations, these instruments performed scientific investigations in astronomy and in space plasma physics, including active experiments in electron beam propagation. Other experiments were in the areas of solar physics, plant growth, micrometeorite studies and the technology of actively controlled heat pipes. A description is given of the initial results from these experiments, with some implications of these results for future operation of space experiments from the Shuttle payload bay. One major result was the unexpected discovery of a faint surface-induced optical glow created near the Shuttle surfaces by impacts of ambient atmospheric atoms and molecules.

Chipman, E.↗

Countdown to the 21st century in planetary exploration

The '90s promise to be an exciting decade for planetary exploration, providing a steady stream of challenges and discoveries stretching well into the 21st century. Four major planetary missions - Voyager, Magellan, Galileo, and Ulysses - are already in flight, while the Mars Observer, Comet Rendezvous/Asteroid Flyby, and Cassini missions are well along in their design, development, test, and evaluation phases and will launch in the early to mid-'90s. Studies continue for new missions such as Lunar Observer, Solar Probe, and Mars Environmental Survey, as well as for the space Exploration Initiative. Issues common to many of these missions - current and future - include budgetary concerns, launch vehicles, longer lifecycles, international cooperation, new technology developments, and multimission operations.

Casani, John R.↗