Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Scenario development”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 307 records · Page 17
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Enhancing the EVI-X National Framework to Address Emerging Questions on Charging Infrastructure Deployment

As national investments in EV charging infrastructure accelerate, this project advances the state-of-the-art in infrastructure analysis to better inform deployment strategies. It enhances NLR's EVI-X Suite, a set of tools supporting national network planning, local site design, and financial evaluation. These capabilities will position VTO to provide timely analysis to the DOT/DOE Joint Office, and to guide the strategic buildout of the national charging network. EVI-X development is closely coordinated with other VTO-funded efforts to ensure consistent, integrated use of key inputs and outputs, including EV adoption scenarios from TEMPO and infrastructure designs developed through EVs@Scale.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2020

An Empirical Study on the Use of the Rancor Microworld Simulator to Support Full-scope Data Collection

A lack of data has been identified as a major challenge in human reliability analysis (HRA). Accordingly, several institutes and researchers have tried to collect HRA data from different data sources such as actual historical measurements, expert judgements, or simulator studies. While the most recent studies predominantly focus on collecting data using full-scope simulators with actual operators, Idaho National Laboratory (INL) has begun to collect HRA data using a simplified simulator, i.e., the Rancor Microworld simulator, with student participants. Full-scope studies have been known to have several intrinsic challenges to securing enough quantity of the data due to many reasons like the high cost for performing experiments or requiring actual operators’ cooperation. The ultimate goal of INL’s effort aims to infer actual operators’ data collected from a full-scope simulator on the basis of microworld data with student subjects as well as collect additional data that could be missed in the full-scope research. As a first step to achieve this goal, this paper projects an experimental plan for investigating the differences in human performance between individuals in two groups: 1) an actual operator and 2) a student when using the Rancor Microworld simulator. A randomized factorial experiment design has been developed with two independent variables, i.e., type of scenario and type of subject. Six human performance measures, i.e., 1) time, 2) error, 3) workload, 4) situation awareness, 5) patterns of attention and 6) the number of manipulations were selected. A couple of scenarios and their procedures available to the Rancor Microworld simulator have been developed.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Test Vector Development for Verification and Validation of Heavy-Duty Autonomous Vehicle Operations

The current focus in the ongoing development of autonomous driving systems (ADS) for heavy duty vehicles is that of vehicle operational safety. To this end, developers and researchers alike are working towards a complete understanding of the operating environments and conditions that autonomous vehicles are subject to during their mission. This understanding is critical to the testing and validation phases of the development of autonomous vehicles and allows for the identification of both the nominal and edge case scenarios encountered by these systems. Previous work by the authors saw the development of a comprehensive scenario generation framework to identify an operating domain specification (ODS), or external and internal conditions an autonomous driving system can expect to encounter on its mission to form critical scenario groups for autonomous vehicle testing and validating using statistical patterns, clustering, and correlation. Continuing this prior work, this paper focuses on the generation of test cases based on the critical scenarios identified that can be used to prioritize either the most common nominal driving scenarios or the least common severe driving scenarios. These test cases can then be used validate, through simulation or real-world testing, the operating design domain (ODD) for a generalized driving mission and built upon to identify spatial and temporal impacts on the driving mission of an autonomous vehicle.

Siekmann, Adam↗
DOE OSTI2021

Empirical Model of Puncture Energy for Metals

The purpose of this work is to fit a previously developed empirical equation for puncture energy to simulation data. The conservative puncture energy equation could be used to expedite the process of performing calculations in the development of safety measures, avoiding the need to create complex finite element models for specific puncture scenarios. A total of 108 simulations are developed by varying coupon thickness, coupon material, probe shape, and probe diameter. The simulations are comprised of a low-velocity probe puncturing the coupons, from which the probe kinetic energy change is calculated. The empirical equation is fit to the dimensions, material properties, and energy results using a non-linear least-squares regression method within Python, which determines the two constant parameters for each fit. More statistically significant fit results are achieved by separating the data by probe shape and coupon material.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Developing a common approach for classifying building stock energy models

Buildings contribute 40% of global greenhouse gas emissions; therefore, strategies that can substantially reduce emissions from the building stock are key components of broader efforts to mitigate climate change and achieve sustainable development goals. Models that represent the energy use of the building stock at scale under various scenarios of technology deployment have become essential tools for the development and assessment of such strategies. Within the past decade, the capabilities of building stock energy models have improved considerably, while model transferability and sharing has increased. Given these advancements, a new scheme for classifying building stock energy models is needed to facilitate communication of modeling approaches and the handling of important model dimensions. In this article, we present a new building stock energy model classification framework that leverages international modeling expertise from the participants of the International Energy Agency's Annex 70 on Building Energy Epidemiology. Drawing from existing classification studies, here we propose a multi-layer quadrant scheme that classifies modeling techniques by their design (top-down or bottom-up) and degree of transparency (black-box or white-box); hybrid techniques are also addressed. The quadrant scheme is unique from previous classification approaches in its non-hierarchical organization, coverage of and ability to incorporate emerging modeling techniques, and treatment of additional modeling dimensions. The new classification framework will be complemented by a reporting protocol and online registry of existing models as part of ongoing work in Annex 70 to increase the interpretability and utility of building stock energy models for energy policy making.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2026

The NREL Sensor Laboratory Detection of Hydrogen Emissions

The development of a functional hydrogen detection system is a multifaceted process that integrates hardware, deployments strategies, and analytics which can be supported by the NREL Sensor Laboratory: 1. Support of the design, validation and optimization of sensing prototypes; 2. Guide optimized sensing element development, including control electronics; 3. Laboratory testing to validate/optimize metrological performance (measurement range, detection limit, etc.); 4. Provide test sites for field deployments representative of real-world scenarios with controlled hydrogen releases; 5. Develop sensor placement and operation guidance; 6. Provide guidance on electronics to accommodate facility integration; 7. Electrical safety designs to allow for operation within restricted zones; 8. Integration into facility monitoring and control systems; 9. Guide incorporation of cyber security elements to protect facilities from malicious attacks; 10. Modeling and application of advanced analytics to detect and quantify emissions; 11. Higher Order dispersion models to guide sensor placement for reliable detection; 12. Advanced analytics for improved metrological performances, and to inform inverse modeling; 13. Market support and commercialization (national and international markets); 14. Commercial deployments in H2@SCALE markets (e.g., HUBs and other large-scale hydrogen markets); and 15. Leverage off international collaborations/partnerships (e.g., NREL is on the advisory board for the European initiative "pre-Normative Research on Hydrogen Releases Assessment"-NHyRA).

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2025

Wellbore Stability and Mud Loss Management in Geothermal Drilling: Optimizing Mud Weight to Mitigate Tensile Wellbore Fracturing at The Geysers, California

As part of a U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Geothermal Technologies Office-funded initiative, Geysers Power Company, LLC, a subsidiary of Calpine Corporation, has been working to enhance drilling performance at the world’s largest geothermal field, The Geysers, in northern California. In a recent drilling operation of the GDC-36 well, excessive mud losses were encountered, initially addressed through repeated but largely ineffective cement plugging. Ultimately, the most effective strategy was to drill blind through the loss zones, made feasible by the high rate of penetration (ROP) achieved with PDC bits, allowing significant progress before the mud tanks were depleted and water-sensitive argillic formation layers could collapse. In response to these challenges, the project team explored alternative methods to minimize downtime and risks associated with cement plugging and continuous mud loss and to contemplate the driving mechanisms for the losses. Wellbore imaging using Formation MicroImager (FMI) and Ultrasonic Borehole Imager (UBI) tools revealed longitudinal tensile fractures, which were attributed to mud weights exceeding the minimum circumferential stress resulting from the native stress field and formation pressure. This study examines the mud losses encountered and leverages wellbore imaging data to understand the mechanisms behind mud induced tensile fracturing in specific rock facies. Understanding fracture behavior across different lithologies is crucial, as fractures within the reservoir can enhance steam migration throughout the system. The reservoir at The Geysers lies within the Mesozoic Franciscan Assemblage, a tectonic mélange formed by subduction. It consists of metamorphosed turbidite sandstone (greywacke) and mudstone (argillite), oceanic upper crust (including greenstone and chert), and serpentinized ultramafic rocks - each exhibiting distinct geomechanical fracturing properties. The structural fabric of the Franciscan Assemblage was shaped by low-angle Mesozoic thrust faulting and later overprinted by sub-vertical strike-slip structures related to the Pacific-North American plate boundary. A wellbore stability model was developed using core measurements and logs to simulate fracturing scenarios during drilling under varying stress conditions. These simulations guided the development of an optimized mud weight management strategy that should enable adaptive adjustments during drilling, reducing the likelihood of tensile fracturing and mud losses, ultimately improving operational efficiency.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Deterministic modelling of the SPERT IV reactor transients using the multi-physics capability of WIMS

The ANSWERS WIMS reactor physics code is being developed for whole core multi-physics modelling. The established neutronics capability for lattice calculations has recently been extended to be suitable for whole core modelling of Small Modular Reactors (SMRs). A whole core transport, SP3 or diffusion flux solution is combined with fuel assembly resonance shielding. An integrated thermal hydraulic solver permits temperature and density variations to feedback to the neutronics calculation. This capability can be applied to both steady state and time dependent transient problems. Nuclear reactor design and safety case development requires assessment of a range of reactor transients, to inform both normal operation limitations and accident scenario analysis. This paper presents new methodology developed in WIMS to couple the core neutronics to the integrated core thermal hydraulics solver for the simulation of reactor transients in whole core models. To support the validation of the multi-physics capability of WIMS, this capability has been applied to the reactivity insertion transient experiments performed in the plate fuelled SPERT-IV reactor. This study employs WIMS using the whole core solver MERLIN, which calculates the time-dependent flux distribution and magnitude, coupled to ARTHUR, which solves for the time-dependent thermal hydraulics solution, and provides thermal feedback via the cross sections generated by GEOM, which performs resonance shielding calculations and generates cross section data for the plate geometry. This spatial kinetics model, with dynamic cross section generation, allows for variations in the temperature and neutron flux profile with time.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Induced seismicity potential based on probabilistic geomechanics for the San Juan Basin CarbonSAFE project

Although geologic carbon sequestration projects have yet to induce — or may never induce — a damaging earthquake, experiences from other deep injection industries such as hydraulic fracturing, enhanced geothermal systems, and saltwater disposal suggest that effective quantitative seismic risk assessment is necessary for deep saline carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) projects. One such imminent CCS project is the San Juan Basin CarbonSAFE Phase III program. We use Monte Carlo probabilistic geomechanical analyses combined with observations of the geologic and operational parameters of the San Juan Basin site and suggest that this project is of low-induced seismic risk. The primary analysis is split into four sections. First, we assess the literature for faults and past seismicity, and at least five faulting scenarios are directly relevant. Second, we develop and calibrate an integrated earth model for the project site. Third, we perform Monte Carlo simulations that consider reasonable uncertainties of the geomechanical parameters. Of five tested faulting scenarios, only one presents high Coulomb failure functions, but fourth, we determine the risk to be low based on the combined lack of historical seismicity, the geologic framework of the faulting scenario, and the presence of saltwater injection at the same depth as the proposed supercritical carbon dioxide injection. The most sensitive parameters in the geomechanical calculations are the fault dip and the coefficient of friction. The least sensitive are the fault strike and the orientation of the maximum horizontal principal stress.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Nuclear Power's Future Role in a Decarbonized U.S. Electricity System

This study explores the potential future role of nuclear energy in a decarbonized U.S. electricity system through a multi-model comparison approach. We employ four state-of-the-art CEMs with native and harmonized input assumptions, layered with different policy and technology trajectories. Comparing outputs across models, technology assumptions, and policy scenarios informs model understanding, interpretation, and development decisions. Under current policies, models differ in their projections for nuclear retirements, but nuclear power plants consistently run with high capacity factors and new builds only occur in scenarios with very low nuclear costs. String power sector carbon policies drive models to align in keeping existing nuclear capacity and employing nuclear plant flexibility, but they may not be enough to bring new nuclear capacity online in the absence of significant cost declines. Therefore, significant economic deployment of new nuclear capacity requires both a stringent electric sector CO2 policy and very low cost assumptions for new nuclear. While these scenarios should not be interpreted as predictions, they are informative for understanding differing model assessments of the relative competitiveness of nuclear energy under a range of policy and technology conditions.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Vector boson dark matter from trinification

We show how trinification models based on the gauge group SU(3) C x SU(3) L x SU(3) R realized near the TeV scale can provide naturally a variety of dark matter (DM) candidates. These models contain a discrete T parity which may remain unbroken even after spontaneous symmetry breaking. The lightest T-odd particle, which could be a fermion, a scalar, or a gauge boson, can constitute the dark matter of the universe. This framework naturally admits a doublet-singlet fermionic DM, a singlet scalar DM, or a vector boson DM. Here we develop the vector boson DM scenario wherein the DM couples off-diagonally with the usual fermions and vector-like fermions present in the theory. We show consistency of this framework with dark matter relic abundance and direct detection limits as well as LHC constraints. We derive upper limits of 900 GeV on the vector gauge boson DM mass and 4.5 TeV on the vector-like quark masses. We also show the consistency of spontaneous gauge symmetry breaking down to Standard Model times an extra U(1) while preserving the T-parity.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2023

Accretion disks, quasars and cosmology: meandering towards understanding

Abstract As Setti and Woltjer noted back in 1973, one can use quasars to construct the Hubble diagram; however, the actual application of the idea was not that straightforward. It took years to implement the proposition successfully. Most ways to employ quasars for cosmology now require an advanced understanding of their structure, step by step. We briefly review this progress, with unavoidable personal biases, and concentrate on bright unobscured sources. We will mention the problem of the gas flow character close to the innermost stable circular orbit near the black hole, as discussed five decades ago. This problem later led to the development of the slim disk scenario and is recently revived in the context of Magnetically Arrested Disks (MAD) and Standard and Normal Evolution (SANE) models. We also discuss the hot or warm corona issue, which is still under debate and complicates the analysis of X-ray reflection. We present the scenario of the formation of the low ionization part of the Broad Line Region as a failed wind powered by radiation pressure acting on dust (Failed Radiatively Driven Dusty Outflow – FRADO). Next, we examine the cosmological constraints currently achievable with quasars, primarily concentrating on light echo methods (continuum time delays and spectral-line time delays to the continuum) that are (or should be) incorporating the progress mentioned above. Finally, we briefly discuss prospects in this lively subject area.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2023

Carbon-Assisted, Continuous Syngas Production in a Chemical Looping Scheme

In the current energy and environment scenario, it is imperative to develop energy efficient routes for chemical manufacturing that also pave the way for mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions. This work presents an efficient pathway for continuous syngas production via a chemical looping conversion of the two most potent greenhouse gases—CH 4 , and CO 2 . The well-known dry-reforming process of converting CH 4 , and CO 2 to syngas is energy-intensive and suffers from catalyst deactivation. The chemical looping approach, on the other hand, provides avenues for mitigating catalyst deactivation and enabling improved energy efficiency. The key to such process enhancements lies in the intricate structure–function relationships of the catalyst and its correlation to the process variables. We present the reduction and oxidation characteristics of 5 wt.% Ni/Ce 1-x Zr x O 2 -based catalysts (x = 0, 0.4, and 0.625). We demonstrate low temperature CH4 activation over Ni-promoted samples as opposed to pure Ce 1-x Zr x O 2 . Moreover, our results depict an optimum regeneration of these catalysts when oxidized by CO 2 , and H 2 O, which allows for chemical looping operation of steam reforming of methane as well. Process variables were tuned to optimize the CH 4 conversion (over 80%), and H 2 /CO ratio at 650 °C. The critical surface reactions—carbon accumulation and gasification, and thermocatalytic CO 2 splitting were investigated to elucidate the dynamic nature of the catalyst surface. In conclusion, the impact of this work lies in showcasing the opportunities to design chemical looping reactors for energy efficient syngas production from waste greenhouse gases.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Sensor impacts on building and HVAC controls: A critical review for building energy performance

Building operations rely heavily on control systems and sensors. This paper provides a sophisticated literature review on sensor systems in building/HVAC systems, particularly in the context of controls, and their impacts on energy efficiency and thermal comfort. This study aims to understand the previous and current research and identify future research opportunities on this subject. The reviewed sensor systems were used for heuristic rule-based controls, local controls, and advanced optimal controls for existing and emerging technologies. Five major aspects of sensors are reviewed here: control loops for sensors, sensor types, sensor locations, sensor data, and a sensor impact evaluation framework. To augment the literature review, comprehensive standardized interviews were also conducted with relevant industry experts and practitioners. These interviews were designed and performed to (1) identify significant factors for selecting sensor sets and current undergoing issues, (2) identify potential improvements in sensor configuration/deployment, and (3) integrate expert (e.g., researcher, building operation practitioner) knowledge and experiences to develop structured use-case scenarios. Researchers collected and analyzed 31 interview responses for this paper.

Building control↗
DOE OSTI2021

Simulation and power quality analysis of a Loose-Coupled bipolar DC microgrid in an office building

With distributed generation and battery storage technologies thriving in microgrids, the use of direct current (DC) microgrids in the building sector offers multiple advantages in energy efficiency and power quality compared with alternating current (AC) systems. This study developed a new concept of a loose-coupled bipolar DC building power system. In this work, the concept was used to design a real-world office building in Shenzhen, China. A power system model was developed to study the stability and control of the DC power system and to verify DC power quality. The design and modeling of the DC power control system is discussed in detail. The study developed a few common fault scenarios in DC building microgrids that were simulated in the MATLAB-Simulink environment to validate the design of a loose-coupled bipolar DC system. The results indicate that the proposed loose-coupled bipolar DC system schema, when implemented with proper control algorithms, can achieve good fault-tolerant performance with reliable power quality, even during disruptive system events.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2026

Surrogate model evaluation and building energy benchmarking for commercial buildings

Building energy consumption benchmarking involves challenges associated with various energy patterns for different building types; heating, ventilating, and air-conditioning (HVAC) system types; and climates. Given significant variation in energy use patterns, accurate prediction of long-term energy use using surrogate models remains challenging. Multiple linear regression (MLR) is commonly used for building energy benchmarking because of its simple structure; however, it lacks accuracy compared to other black-box models. Although many studies have compared surrogate models and offer guidance on model selection based on metrics, they do not provide detailed analysis on improving the surrogate model accuracy. In this paper, we implement a surrogate model using polynomial ridge regression (i.e., MLR with interaction terms combined with ridge regularization) for small office and retail strip mall buildings across six HVAC system types and all climate zones, for electricity and natural gas in baseline and proposed scenarios. A simulation workflow is developed using OpenStudio TM /EnergyPlus TM to generate simulation data using measures over a wide range of efficiency inputs. Enhancements based on statistical insights are used for improving the model accuracy using filters, input transformations, and change points. Surrogate models achieved average coefficient of variation of the root mean squared error (CVRMSE) values of 2.17, 1.06, 2.05, and 3.26 for proposed electricity, proposed natural gas, baseline electricity, and baseline natural gas, respectively, with enhancements reducing CVRMSE by an average of 14.9% across all combinations. We provide model interpretation via Shapley additive explanations to determine which input variables most influence energy consumption and provide supportive arguments for enhancements.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2022

Investigation of enhanced CO 2 storage in deep saline aquifers by WAG and brine extraction in the Minnelusa sandstone, Wyoming

Geological CO 2 sequestration in deep saline aquifers has been extendedly investigated to reach the goal of carbon neutral as large amount of CO 2 can be reduced in a short time. Here, this study investigates the feasibility of water-alternating-gas (WAG) injection and brine extraction on enhancing CO 2 storage in a target deep saline aquifer, Minnelusa Sandstone in the Powder River Basin (PRB) of Wyoming. An integrated numerical model is developed to account for four scenarios: (1) CO 2 continuous injection (CI) through one injection well, (2) WAG injection through one injection well, (3) CO 2 CI through one injection well and brine extraction through one producer, (4) WAG injection through one injection well and brine extraction through one producer. Simulation results suggest that WAG injection and brine extraction corporately make it possible to enhance CO 2 injectivity while securing CO 2 storage safety. For instance, WAG injection considerably reduces structural trapping contribution while enhances dissolved and residual trapping contributions. As for brine extraction, it can decrease the maximum averaged reservoir pressure by 37% and 22% for CI and WAG injection, respectively. Besides, sensitive analyses of the operational parameters for the fourth scenarios are performed. Results reveal that, when the amount of total CO 2 injection has been predetermined, CO 2 injection time and rate within each period of WAG should be small whereas it is preferable to have large water injection time and rate. This is to secure desirable dissolved and residual trapping contributions (store CO 2 with safety). Sensitive degree results confirm that CO 2 injection rate, water injection time, and CO 2 injection time of WAG injection exhibit significant effects on CO 2 storage whereas the impacts of producer bottom-hole pressure (BHP), water injection rate, and CO 2 -water injection time are relatively weaker. This study not only sheds light on achieving double-win goal: enhance CO 2 injectivity and store CO 2 with safety, but also can be a critical reference for other CO 2 storage in deep saline aquifers.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Deep-learning-enhanced assessment of wellbore barrier effectiveness in geologic storage systems with intermediate aquifers

For geologic systems where carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) is injected underground, existing wells represent potential pathways for fluid migration. Here, this study introduces a novel deep learning model to quantify the likelihood and potential magnitude of fluid migration through wellbores at sites with intermediate aquifers or thief zones between the injection units and underground drinking water sources. Synthetic datasets, generated using reservoir simulations, captured a wide range of subsurface conditions, well attributes, operational parameters, and fluid migration scenarios. Among the regression models developed to predict brine and CO 2 leakage rates and CO 2 saturations along leaky wellbores, convolutional neural network (CNN) outperformed both Light Gradient Boosting Machine and deep neural network. Additionally, a CNN-based classification model was created to predict whether brine and CO 2 would leak along a wellbore, further improving performance over regression alone. The best models were integrated into the National Risk Assessment Partnership Open-source Integrated Assessment Model for rapid, stochastic assessment of storage system containment and leakage risks. A case study demonstrated the model’s ability to simulate fluid migration through existing wells with multiple intermediate aquifers. This computationally efficient wellbore model offers value in support of site performance evaluation and risk-informed decision making by stakeholders.

CO2 leakage↗