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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1971

A stochastic constrained optimization technique and its application to detector array processing.

A stochastic projected gradient algorithm is proposed which can be used for finding a constrained optimum point for a concave or convex objective function subject to nonlinear constraints which form a connected region even when only a noisy estimate of the objective function is available. For a constraint described by a single linear equation, convergence to the constrained optimum value is proved, and the rate of convergence of the algorithm to the constrained optimum value is determined. The algorithm is applied to the nonlinear problem of obtaining automatically an array of detectors which forms a beam in a desired direction in space in the presence of interfering noise so as to maximize the SNR subject to a constraint on the super-gain ratio.

Winkler, L. P.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Random Process Simulation for stochastic fatigue analysis

A simulation technique is described which directly synthesizes the extrema of a random process and is more efficient than the Gaussian simulation method. Such a technique is particularly useful in stochastic fatigue analysis because the required stress range moment E(R sup m), is a function only of the extrema of the random stress process. The family of autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models is reviewed and an autoregressive model is presented for modeling the extrema of any random process which has a unimodal power spectral density (psd). The proposed autoregressive technique is found to produce rainflow stress range moments which compare favorably with those computed by the Gaussian technique and to average 11.7 times faster than the Gaussian technique. The autoregressive technique is also adapted for processes having bimodal psd's. The adaptation involves using two autoregressive processes to simulate the extrema due to each mode and the superposition of these two extrema sequences. The proposed autoregressive superposition technique is 9 to 13 times faster than the Gaussian technique and produces comparable values for E(R sup m) for bimodal psd's having the frequency of one mode at least 2.5 times that of the other mode.

Larsen, Curtis E.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Temperature drives local contributions to beta diversity in mountain streams: stochastic and deterministic processes

Community variation (i.e. beta diversity) in geographical coenoclines is of substantial interest in ecology, yet the elevational patterns in beta diversity are still understudied, and no general conclusions have been reached. Here, we explored local contributions to beta diversity (LCBD) of stream bacteria, diatoms and macroinvertebrates on mountainsides. Across all taxa, we revealed a general U-shaped LCBD-elevation relationships (LCBDer), suggesting higher uniqueness of community composition at the two ends of the elevational gradients. This pattern was confirmed by coenocline simulations based on observed communities, and supported by the dominance of species replacement in total beta diversity. Across mountains and taxonomic groups, temperature was the main environmental factor underlying elevational patterns in LCBD and its metric relatives, which were also mediated by local environmental variables. The observed magnitudes of U-shaped LCBDer across mountains and taxonomic groups were specifically related to the heterogeneity of stream morphology, and the mean annual temperature on each mountain. U-shaped LCBDer were strengthened by the occurrence of generalist species with large elevational ranges, while rare species had a lesser effect on the patterns. Raup-Crick beta diversity indicated that both stochastic and deterministic processes drove the community assembly, and the latter one was positively related to the magnitudes of LCBDer. Our synthesis across mountains and taxonomic groups clearly shows that there are consistent elevational patterns in LCBD among taxonomic groups, and that these patterns are explained by similar ecological mechanisms, producing a more complete picture in understanding and bridging the spatial variation in biodiversity under changing climate.

Wang, Jianjun↗
DOE OSTI2021

Balanced stochastic versus deterministic assembly processes benefit diverse yet uneven ecosystem functions in representative agroecosystems

Ecological assembly processes, by influencing community composition, determine ecosystem functions of microbiomes. However, debate remains on how stochastic versus deterministic assembly processes influence ecosystem functions such as carbon and nutrient cycling. Towards a better understanding, we investigated three types of agroecosystems (the upland, paddy, and flooded) that represent a gradient of stochastic versus deterministic assembly processes. Carbon and nutrient cycling multifunctionality, characterized by nine enzymes associated with soil carbon, nitrogen, phosphorous and sulfur cycling, was evaluated and then associated with microbial assembly processes and cooccurrence patterns of vital ecological groups. Our results suggest that strong deterministic processes favour microorganisms with convergent functions (as in the upland agroecosystem), while stochasticity-dominated processes lead to divergent functions (as in the flooded agroecosystem). To benefit agroecosystems services, we speculate that it is critical for a system to maintain balance between its stochastic and deterministic assembly processes (as in the paddy agroecosystem). By doing so, the system can preserve a diverse array of functional traits and also allow for particular traits to flourish. To further confirm this speculation, it is necessary to develop a systematic knowledge beyond merely characterizing general patterns towards the associations among community assembly, composition, and ecosystem functions.

Liu, Wenjing↗
DOE OSTI2020

Measurement Uncertainty in One-Of-A-Kind Event Data Analysis

A golden standard in science is to repeat an experiment a statistically significant number of times, recording data using the same set of detectors and the same data analysis methodology. In such case experimental error includes both the range of true values generated by repetitions of the experiment, and measurement uncertainty caused by the detector. They are independent. It is a huge and too frequently used simplification, to assume that one can measure multiple repetitions of an identical experiment, resulting in identical true experimental value. Repetitions, as similar is it is experimentally achievable, have unavoidable built-in differences resulting in a range of the true values rather than in a single value. When modern, very sensitive and well calibrated measurement systems are used, this range is not negligible, and sometimes dominates over the measurement uncertainty. Range of true values depends on built-in differences in physics of the experiment. Stochastic physical processes result typically in a broader range of true values than non-stochastic processes do. Measurement uncertainty depends on a measurement method (properties of the detector not of the experiment). Modern measurement methods, including digital ones, frequently make the measurement uncertainty very small. When data from one–of –a kind experiment are analyzed, only the measurement uncertainty is reported. It provides no information about the range of true experimental values, neither about reliability of a reported data point. Reliability of a data point is in general independent from its measurement uncertainty. However, in practice reliable measurement methods frequently have high measurement uncertainty, while low reliability methods are applied to limit measurement uncertainty. Comparison of reliable data with high measurement uncertainty to not so reliable data measured with low uncertainty is discussed – in different scenarios different data analysis methods are applicable. Methods for data analysis from an experiment repeated statistically significant number of times are very well developed. They do not require a detailed expertise in physics of an experiment, nor in the properties of the measurement system used, and meaning of the reported uncertainty is well understood in any scientific community. It all changes when data from one-of-a-kind experiment is analyzed. Analyst’s expertise is required both in the physics of the experiment and in all aspects of the measurement system, all possible malfunctions. Data users must remember that only measurement uncertainty is reported from any one-of-a-kind experiment. Theory with simulations may provide estimation of expected built-in differences in the experiment, and by this of expected range of true values for a given experiment; yet measurement uncertainty can never be used in place of the range of true experimental values.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
NASA NTRS1993

Investigation for improving Global Positioning System (GPS) orbits using a discrete sequential estimator and stochastic models of selected physical processes

GEODYNII is a conventional batch least-squares differential corrector computer program with deterministic models of the physical environment. Conventional algorithms were used to process differenced phase and pseudorange data to determine eight-day Global Positioning system (GPS) orbits with several meter accuracy. However, random physical processes drive the errors whose magnitudes prevent improving the GPS orbit accuracy. To improve the orbit accuracy, these random processes should be modeled stochastically. The conventional batch least-squares algorithm cannot accommodate stochastic models, only a stochastic estimation algorithm is suitable, such as a sequential filter/smoother. Also, GEODYNII cannot currently model the correlation among data values. Differenced pseudorange, and especially differenced phase, are precise data types that can be used to improve the GPS orbit precision. To overcome these limitations and improve the accuracy of GPS orbits computed using GEODYNII, we proposed to develop a sequential stochastic filter/smoother processor by using GEODYNII as a type of trajectory preprocessor. Our proposed processor is now completed. It contains a correlated double difference range processing capability, first order Gauss Markov models for the solar radiation pressure scale coefficient and y-bias acceleration, and a random walk model for the tropospheric refraction correction. The development approach was to interface the standard GEODYNII output files (measurement partials and variationals) with software modules containing the stochastic estimator, the stochastic models, and a double differenced phase range processing routine. Thus, no modifications to the original GEODYNII software were required. A schematic of the development is shown. The observational data are edited in the preprocessor and the data are passed to GEODYNII as one of its standard data types. A reference orbit is determined using GEODYNII as a batch least-squares processor and the GEODYNII measurement partial (FTN90) and variational (FTN80, V-matrix) files are generated. These two files along with a control statement file and a satellite identification and mass file are passed to the filter/smoother to estimate time-varying parameter states at each epoch, improved satellite initial elements, and improved estimates of constant parameters.

Goad, Clyde C.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Learning process mapping heuristics under stochastic sampling overheads

A statistical method was developed previously for improving process mapping heuristics. The method systematically explores the space of possible heuristics under a specified time constraint. Its goal is to get the best possible heuristics while trading between the solution quality of the process mapping heuristics and their execution time. The statistical selection method is extended to take into consideration the variations in the amount of time used to evaluate heuristics on a problem instance. The improvement in performance is presented using the more realistic assumption along with some methods that alleviate the additional complexity.

Ieumwananonthachai, Arthur↗
NASA NTRS1999

Dynamical Signatures of Living Systems

One of the main challenges in modeling living systems is to distinguish a random walk of physical origin (for instance, Brownian motions) from those of biological origin and that will constitute the starting point of the proposed approach. As conjectured, the biological random walk must be nonlinear. Indeed, any stochastic Markov process can be described by linear Fokker-Planck equation (or its discretized version), only that type of process has been observed in the inanimate world. However, all such processes always converge to a stable (ergodic or periodic) state, i.e., to the states of a lower complexity and high entropy. At the same time, the evolution of living systems directed toward a higher level of complexity if complexity is associated with a number of structural variations. The simplest way to mimic such a tendency is to incorporate a nonlinearity into the random walk; then the probability evolution will attain the features of diffusion equation: the formation and dissipation of shock waves initiated by small shallow wave disturbances. As a result, the evolution never "dies:" it produces new different configurations which are accompanied by an increase or decrease of entropy (the decrease takes place during formation of shock waves, the increase-during their dissipation). In other words, the evolution can be directed "against the second law of thermodynamics" by forming patterns outside of equilibrium in the probability space. Due to that, a specie is not locked up in a certain pattern of behavior: it still can perform a variety of motions, and only the statistics of these motions is constrained by this pattern. It should be emphasized that such a "twist" is based upon the concept of reflection, i.e., the existence of the self-image (adopted from psychology). The model consists of a generator of stochastic processes which represents the motor dynamics in the form of nonlinear random walks, and a simulator of the nonlinear version of the diffusion equation which represents the mental dynamics. It has been demonstrated that coupled mental-motor dynamics can simulate emerging self-organization, prey-predator games, collaboration and competition, "collective brain," etc.

Zak, M.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Probabilistic Groundwater Modeling of the RDX Plume at Los Alamos National Laboratory to Support Risk Assessment - 20359

A plume of the contaminant hexahydro-1,3,5-trinitro-1,3,5-triazine (RDX) with concentrations greater than the New Mexico tap water drinking standard (9.66 ppb) is present in the regional aquifer near the southwestern boundary of Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). A risk assessment is performed for exposure to regional aquifer groundwater, with long-term predictions of RDX concentrations provided by a calibrated, probabilistic, numerical fate and transport model. The structure of the model is hierarchical, with the RDX Regional Aquifer (RA) groundwater model acting as the primary tool for analysis of downgradient RDX concentrations. The RA model is deeply informed by the conceptual site model (CSM) and is calibrated using site RDX concentration data and hydraulic head measurements, along with other analyses. The model is calibrated using data through December 2019. Where data are scarce other lines of evidence are used to inform inputs, including the multiphase RDX Vadose Zone (VZ) model and Pipe and Disk analytical screening tool. Model inputs are described with informative prior distributions using a robust approach to development that incorporates all available lines of evidence for every parameter used as an input to the RA model. Calibration is performed using a classical nonlinear optimization routine, which is then used to initialize a Bayesian calibration. The Bayesian calibration constrains the uncertainty in the classical calibration, ultimately providing posterior distributions for all model parameters. The challenges of the calibration include high-dimensional parameter space, including spatially heterogeneous hydraulic conductivities, comparatively sparse data, and low RDX concentrations. Posterior parameter distributions developed in the calibration process are then used for stochastic predictive model runs into the future. The result of the forward runs is spatially and temporally explicit estimates of head and concentration with uncertainty at all points in space and time. The probabilistic modeling approach presented here includes innovative computational and statistical methods that leverage high-performance computing (HPC) resources. It makes use of prior modeling work performed at the chromium plume site in the central LANL area, with extensive updates. The risk assessment will ultimately be used to support decision-making at the site, using multiple appropriately weighted sources of information, as well as uncertainty, sensitivity, and value-of-information analyses. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2021

Advances in imaging of chemically reacting flows

Many important chemically reacting systems are inherently multi-dimensional with spatial and temporal variations in the thermochemical state, which can be strongly coupled to interactions with transport processes. Fundamental insights into these systems require multi-dimensional measurements of the thermochemical state as well as fluid dynamics quantities. Laser-based imaging diagnostics provide spatially and temporally resolved measurements that help address this need. The state of the art in imaging diagnostics is continually progressing with the goal of attaining simultaneous multi-parameter measurements that capture transient processes, particularly those that lead to stochastic events, such as localized extinction in turbulent combustion. Development efforts in imaging diagnostics benefit from advances in laser and detector technology. This article provides a perspective on the progression of increasing dimensionality of laser-based imaging diagnostics and highlights the evolution from single-point measurements to 1D and 2D multi-parameter imaging and 3D high-speed imaging. This evolution is demonstrated using highlights of laser-based imaging techniques in combustion science research as an exemplar of a complex multi-dimensional chemically reacting system with chemistry–transport coupling. Imaging diagnostics impact basic research in other chemically reacting systems as well, such as measurements of near-surface gases in heterogeneous catalysis. The expanding dimensionality of imaging diagnostics leads to larger and more complex datasets that require increasingly demanding approaches to data analysis and provide opportunities for increased collaboration between experimental and computational researchers in tackling these challenges.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

HYPPO: A Surrogate-Based Multi-Level Parallelism Tool for Hyperparameter Optimization

We present a new software, HYPPO, that enables the automatic tuning of hyperparameters of various deep learning (DL) models. Unlike other hyperparameter optimization (HPO) methods, HYPPO uses adaptive surrogate models and directly accounts for uncertainty in model predictions to find accurate and reliable models that make robust predictions. Using asynchronous nested parallelism, we are able to significantly alleviate the computational burden of training complex architectures and quantifying the uncertainty. HYPPO is implemented in Python and can be used with both TensorFlow and PyTorch libraries. We demonstrate various software features on time-series prediction and image classification problems as well as a scientific application in computed tomography image reconstruction. Finally, we show that (1) we can reduce by an order of magnitude the number of evaluations necessary to find the most optimal region in the hyperparameter space and (2) we can reduce by two orders of magnitude the throughput for such HPO process to complete.

adaptation models↗
DOE OSTI2020

Multichannel spectral estimation in acoustics: A state-space approach

Spectral estimation is a necessary methodology to analyze the frequency content of noisy data sets especially in acoustic applications. Many spectral techniques have evolved starting with the classical Fourier transform methods based on the well-known Wiener-Khintchine relationship relating the covariance-to-spectral density as a transform pair culminating with more elegant model-based parametric techniques that apply prior knowledge of the data to produce a high-resolution spectral estimate. Multichannel spectral representations are a class of both nonparametric, as well as parametric, estimators that provide improved spectral estimates. In any case, classical nonparametric multichannel techniques can provide reasonable estimates when coupled with peak-peaking methods as long as the signal levels are reasonably high. Furthermore, parametric multichannel methods can perform quite well in low signal level environments even when applying simple peak-picking techniques. In this paper, the performance of both nonparametric (periodogram) and parametric (state-space) multichannel spectral estimation methods are investigated when applied to both synthesized noisy structural vibration data as well as data obtained from a sounding rocket flight. It is demonstrated that for the multichannel problem, state-space techniques provide improved performance, offering a parametric alternative compared to classical methods.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Environmental stress mediates groundwater microbial community assembly

Community assembly describes how different ecological processes shape microbial community composition and structure. How environmental factors impact community assembly remains elusive. Here we sampled microbial communities and >200 biogeochemical variables in groundwater at the Oak Ridge Field Research Center, a former nuclear waste disposal site, and developed a theoretical framework to conceptualize the relationships between community assembly processes and environmental stresses. We found that stochastic assembly processes were critical (>60% on average) in shaping community structure, but their relative importance decreased as stress increased. Dispersal limitation and ‘drift’ related to random birth and death had negative correlations with stresses, whereas the selection processes leading to dissimilar communities increased with stresses, primarily related to pH, cobalt and molybdenum. Assembly mechanisms also varied greatly among different phylogenetic groups. As a result, our findings highlight the importance of microbial dispersal limitation and environmental heterogeneity in ecosystem restoration and management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Quantifying Uncertainty of Deep Reinforcement Learning Based Decision Making for Operations and Maintenance of Nuclear Power Plant

This paper summarizes research that integrates condition monitoring and prognostics with decision making for nuclear power plant operations and maintenance. As part of this research, we have developed an online asset management tool to help reduce life-cycle maintenance and repair costs. Using the latest advancements in condition monitoring, supply chain analytics, and deep reinforcement learning, we have created a predictive maintenance tool that can optimize the maintenance and spare-part management of a repairable nuclear system. To demonstrate these methods, preliminary studies were conducted on a simple, representative maintenance system undergoing a stochastic degradation process that requires repairs or replacement to continue operation. Through Monte Carlo simulations, we were able to reduce maintenance spending by approximately 50% compared to optimized, time-based maintenance strategies. Not only does the decision maker reduce the average life-cycle costs, it also minimizes the chance of high cost scenarios, lowering the variance of the expected cost distributions, and reducing overall financial risk. Furthermore, this work also studies the ability of the decision maker to handle various levels of noise from observation uncertainty. By introducing uncertainty into the decision-making process, we have quantified the robustness and resiliency of the decision maker, as well as identified necessary levels of observability to demonstrate cost effectiveness.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Nonadiabatic transition paths from quantum jump trajectories

We present a means of studying rare reactive pathways in open quantum systems using transition path theory and ensembles of quantum jump trajectories. This approach allows for the elucidation of reactive paths for dissipative, nonadiabatic dynamics when the system is embedded in a Markovian environment. Here, we detail the dominant pathways and rates of thermally activated processes and the relaxation pathways and photoyields following vertical excitation in a minimal model of a conical intersection. We find that the geometry of the conical intersection affects the electronic character of the transition state as defined through a generalization of a committor function for a thermal barrier crossing event. Similarly, the geometry changes the mechanism of relaxation following a vertical excitation. Relaxation in models resulting from small diabatic coupling proceeds through pathways dominated by pure dephasing, while those with large diabatic coupling proceed through pathways limited by dissipation. The perspective introduced here for the nonadiabatic dynamics of open quantum systems generalizes classical notions of reactive paths to fundamentally quantum mechanical processes.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗