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At least 307 records · Page 17

Sensitivity Analysis of the Bone Fracture Risk Model

Introduction: The probability of bone fracture during and after spaceflight is quantified to aid in mission planning, to determine required astronaut fitness standards and training requirements and to inform countermeasure research and design. Probability is quantified with a probabilistic modeling approach where distributions of model parameter values, instead of single deterministic values, capture the parameter variability within the astronaut population and fracture predictions are probability distributions with a mean value and an associated uncertainty. Because of this uncertainty, the model in its current state cannot discern an effect of countermeasures on fracture probability, for example between use and non-use of bisphosphonates or between spaceflight exercise performed with the Advanced Resistive Exercise Device (ARED) or on devices prior to installation of ARED on the International Space Station. This is thought to be due to the inability to measure key contributors to bone strength, for example, geometry and volumetric distributions of bone mass, with areal bone mineral density (BMD) measurement techniques. To further the applicability of model, we performed a parameter sensitivity study aimed at identifying those parameter uncertainties that most effect the model forecasts in order to determine what areas of the model needed enhancements for reducing uncertainty. Methods: The bone fracture risk model (BFxRM), originally published in (Nelson et al) is a probabilistic model that can assess the risk of astronaut bone fracture. This is accomplished by utilizing biomechanical models to assess the applied loads; utilizing models of spaceflight BMD loss in at-risk skeletal locations; quantifying bone strength through a relationship between areal BMD and bone failure load; and relating fracture risk index (FRI), the ratio of applied load to bone strength, to fracture probability. There are many factors associated with these calculations including environmental factors, factors associated with the fall event, mass and anthropometric values of the astronaut, BMD characteristics, characteristics of the relationship between BMD and bone strength and bone fracture characteristics. The uncertainty in these factors is captured through the use of parameter distributions and the fracture predictions are probability distributions with a mean value and an associated uncertainty. To determine parameter sensitivity, a correlation coefficient is found between the sample set of each model parameter and the calculated fracture probabilities. Each parameters contribution to the variance is found by squaring the correlation coefficients, dividing by the sum of the squared correlation coefficients, and multiplying by 100. Results: Sensitivity analyses of BFxRM simulations of preflight, 0 days post-flight and 365 days post-flight falls onto the hip revealed a subset of the twelve factors within the model which cause the most variation in the fracture predictions. These factors include the spring constant used in the hip biomechanical model, the midpoint FRI parameter within the equation used to convert FRI to fracture probability and preflight BMD values. Future work: Plans are underway to update the BFxRM by incorporating bone strength information from finite element models (FEM) into the bone strength portion of the BFxRM. Also, FEM bone strength information along with fracture outcome data will be incorporated into the FRI to fracture probability.

mathematical models↗

Trade Studies of Space Launch Architectures using Modular Probabilistic Risk Analysis

A top-down risk assessment in the early phases of space exploration architecture development can provide understanding and intuition of the potential risks associated with new designs and technologies. In this approach, risk analysts draw from their past experience and the heritage of similar existing systems as a source for reliability data. This top-down approach captures the complex interactions of the risk driving parts of the integrated system without requiring detailed knowledge of the parts themselves, which is often unavailable in the early design stages. Traditional probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) technologies, however, suffer several drawbacks that limit their timely application to complex technology development programs. The most restrictive of these is a dependence on static planning scenarios, expressed through fault and event trees. Fault trees incorporating comprehensive mission scenarios are routinely constructed for complex space systems, and several commercial software products are available for evaluating fault statistics. These static representations cannot capture the dynamic behavior of system failures without substantial modification of the initial tree. Consequently, the development of dynamic models using fault tree analysis has been an active area of research in recent years. This paper discusses the implementation and demonstration of dynamic, modular scenario modeling for integration of subsystem fault evaluation modules using the Space Architecture Failure Evaluation (SAFE) tool. SAFE is a C++ code that was originally developed to support NASA s Space Launch Initiative. It provides a flexible framework for system architecture definition and trade studies. SAFE supports extensible modeling of dynamic, time-dependent risk drivers of the system and functions at the level of fidelity for which design and failure data exists. The approach is scalable, allowing inclusion of additional information as detailed data becomes available. The tool performs a Monte Carlo analysis to provide statistical estimates. Example results of an architecture system reliability study are summarized for an exploration system concept using heritage data from liquid-fueled expendable Saturn V/Apollo launch vehicles.

Mathias, Donovan L.↗

A Risk Communication Success Story

A key success of the decommissioning effort at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA's) Plum Brook Reactor Facility (PBRF) has been the public outreach program. The approach has been based on risk communications rather than a public relations approach. As a result it has kept the public feeling more involved in the process. It ensures they have the information needed to understand the project and its goals, and to make recommendations. All this is done so that NASA can better plan and execute the necessary work without delays or suprises.

Peecook, Keith↗

Techno-Economic Analysis for Co-Processing Fast Pyrolysis Liquid in Fossil Refineries

Recent work at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and throughout the bioenergy community has highlighted incentives associated with co-processing bio-intermediates in existing refineries to reduce capital costs associated with renewable fuels and chemicals production and reduce overall risk for emerging biomass conversion technologies. This presentation summarizes the techno-economic analysis results from the NREL-Petrobras collaboration that focused on refinery integration of fast pyrolysis oil through co-processing in the fluid catalytic cracking (FCC) process. The NREL-Petrobras work highlights the economic opportunity for refiners to engage in co-processing for low-carbon products and introduces the risks for refiners based on variability in crude and fossil-product markets. The NREL-Petrobras results also serve as a basis to inform policy design that reduces economic risk for refinery co-processing and repurposing opportunities. The final topics in the presentation highlight experimental capabilities and emerging analysis approaches at NREL and partner laboratories that support the development and commercial deployment of refinery utilization strategies.

bio-fuels↗

A Risk Assessment Model for Reduced Aircraft Separation: A Quantitative Method to Evaluate the Safety of Free Flight

As new technologies and procedures are introduced into the National Airspace System, whether they are intended to improve efficiency, capacity, or safety level, the quantification of potential changes in safety levels is of vital concern. Applications of technology can improve safety levels and allow the reduction of separation standards. An excellent example is the Precision Runway Monitor (PRM). By taking advantage of the surveillance and display advances of PRM, airports can run instrument parallel approaches to runways separated by 3400 feet with the same level of safety as parallel approaches to runways separated by 4300 feet using the standard technology. Despite a wealth of information from flight operations and testing programs, there is no readily quantifiable relationship between numerical safety levels and the separation standards that apply to aircraft on final approach. This paper presents a modeling approach to quantify the risk associated with reducing separation on final approach. Reducing aircraft separation, both laterally and longitudinally, has been the goal of several aviation R&D programs over the past several years. Many of these programs have focused on technological solutions to improve navigation accuracy, surveillance accuracy, aircraft situational awareness, controller situational awareness, and other technical and operational factors that are vital to maintaining flight safety. The risk assessment model relates different types of potential aircraft accidents and incidents and their contribution to overall accident risk. The framework links accident risks to a hierarchy of failsafe mechanisms characterized by procedures and interventions. The model will be used to assess the overall level of safety associated with reducing separation standards and the introduction of new technology and procedures, as envisaged under the Free Flight concept. The model framework can be applied to various aircraft scenarios, including parallel and in-trail approaches. This research was performed under contract to NASA and in cooperation with the FAA's Safety Division (ASY).

Cassell, Rick↗

Interdisciplinary Approaches to Cyber-vulnerability Impact Assessment for Energy Critical Infrastructure

As energy infrastructure becomes more interconnected, understanding cybersecurity risks to production systems requires integrating operational and computer security knowledge. We interviewed 18 experts working in the field of energy critical infrastructure to compare what information they find necessary to assess the impact of computer vulnerabilities on energy operational technology. These experts came from two groups: 1) computer security experts and 2) energy sector operations experts. We find that both groups responded similarly for general categories of information and displayed knowledge about both domains, perhaps due to their interdisciplinary work at the same organization. Yet, we found notable differences in the details of their responses and in their stated perceptions of each group’s approaches to impact assessment. Their suggestions for collaboration across domains highlighted how these two groups can work together to help each other secure the energy grid. Our findings inform the development of interdisciplinary security approaches in critical-infrastructure contexts.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Comparative Analysis of Static and Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment

This study examines three different methodologies for producing loss-of-mission (LOM) and loss-of-crew (LOC) risks estimates for probabilistic risk assessments (PRA) of crewed spacecraft. The three bottom-up, component-based PRA approaches examined are a traditional static fault tree, a dynamic Monte Carlo simulation, and a fault tree hybrid that incorporates some dynamic elements. These approaches were used to model the reaction control system thruster pod of a generic crewed spacecraft and mission, and a comparative analysis of the methods is presented. The methodologies are assessed in terms of the process of modeling a system, the actionable information produced for the design team, and the overall fidelity of the quantitative risk evaluation generated. The system modeling process is compared in terms of the effort required to generate the initial model, update the model in response to design changes, and support mass-versus-risk trade studies. The results are compared by examining the top-level LOM/LOC estimates and the relative risk driver rankings at the failure mode level. The fidelity of each modeling methodology is discussed in terms of its capability to handle real-world system dynamics such as cold-sparing, changes in mission operations due to loss of redundancy, and common cause failure modes. The paper also discusses the applicability of each methodology to different phases of system development and shows that a single methodology may not be suitable for all of the many purposes of a spacecraft PRA. The fault tree hybrid approach is shown to be best suited to the needs of early assessments during conceptual design phases. As the design begins to mature, the level of detail represented in the risk model must go beyond redundancy and nominal mission operations to include dynamic, time- and state-dependent system responses as well as diverse system capabilities. This is best accomplished using the dynamic simulation approach, since these phenomena are not easily captured by static methods. Ultimately, once the design has been finalized and the goal of the PRA is to provide design validation and requirement verification, more traditional, static fault tree approaches may become as appropriate as the simulation method.

Mattenberger, Christopher J.↗

Interdisciplinary Approaches to Cybervulnerability Impact Assessment for Energy Critical Infrastructure

As energy infrastructure becomes more interconnected, understanding cybersecurity risks to production systems requires integrating operational and computer security knowledge. We interviewed 18 experts working in the field of energy critical infrastructure to compare what information they find necessary to assess the impact of computer vulnerabilities on energy operational technology. These experts came from two groups: 1) computer security experts and 2) energy sector operations experts. We find that both groups responded similarly for general categories of information and displayed knowledge about both domains, perhaps due to their interdisciplinary work at the same organization. Yet, their discussion of each group’s domain-specific training, motivations, and limitations, as well as their suggestions for collaboration across domains, highlighted how these two groups can work together to help each other secure the energy grid. Our findings inform the development of interdisciplinary security approaches in critical-infrastructure contexts.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

An Approach to Automate tools for the Risk Assessment of Digital Instrumentation and Control Systems

Reliable digital instrumentation and control systems (DI&C) are integral for sustaining the continued operation of nuclear power plants. These systems ensure that nuclear reactors operate safely, efficiently, and within regulatory requirements. Yet, the cost of designing and licensing new nuclear DI&C can be prohibitively expensive. Under the U.S. Department of Energy Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program, Idaho National Laboratory has developed a framework for supporting the risk-informed design of DI&C systems by offering methods to support the identification, quantification, and evaluation of risks for various DI&C design architectures. The framework indicates potential software failure modes and provides pathways for quantifying the potential for these software failures, including common cause failures. Using the framework’s systematic approach, challenges for assessing risks within new and existing nuclear DI&C systems can be reduced. Nevertheless, the current framework can be further improved using the convenience of automation. This paper introduces the development of Software for the Hazard Identification and Evaluation of Digital Systems (SHIELDS). SHIELDS is an engineering software package that enables the identification, elimination, and mitigation of potential risks and reduces the burden of deploying reliable DI&C systems. This work introduces plans and techniques to digitize and improve the manual risk assessment modules of the framework. These improvements will save time and increase the repeatability and usability of the framework, making it more accessible to a wider range of users. Ultimately, this introduces SHIELDS and how its modules support efficient development of safe and reliable DI&C systems.

46 - INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AN↗

Continuous Risk Management at NASA

NPG 7120.5A, "NASA Program and Project Management Processes and Requirements" enacted in April, 1998, requires that "The program or project manager shall apply risk management principles..." The Software Assurance Technology Center (SATC) at NASA GSFC has been tasked with the responsibility for developing and teaching a systems level course for risk management that provides information on how to comply with this edict. The course was developed in conjunction with the Software Engineering Institute at Carnegie Mellon University, then tailored to the NASA systems community. This presentation will briefly discuss the six functions for risk management: (1) Identify the risks in a specific format; (2) Analyze the risk probability, impact/severity, and timeframe; (3) Plan the approach; (4) Track the risk through data compilation and analysis; (5) Control and monitor the risk; (6) Communicate and document the process and decisions. This risk management structure of functions has been taught to projects at all NASA Centers and is being successfully implemented on many projects. This presentation will give project managers the information they need to understand if risk management is to be effectively implemented on their projects at a cost they can afford.

Hammer, Theodore F.↗

Telescience Testbed Pilot Project - Evaluation environment for Space Station operations

The objectives of the Telescience Testbed Pilot Program (TTPP) are discussed. The purpose of the TTPP, which involves 15 universities in cooperation with various NASA centers, is to demonstrate the utility of a user-oriented rapid prototyping testbed approach to developing and refining science requirements and validation concepts and approaches for the information systems of the Space Station era and beyond. It is maintained that the TTPP provides an excellent environment, with low programmatic schedule and budget risk, for testing and evaluating new operations concepts and technologies.

Wiskerchen, Michael J.↗

Using software security analysis to verify the secure socket layer (SSL) protocol

nal Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) have tens of thousands of networked computer systems and applications. Software Security vulnerabilities present risks such as lost or corrupted data, information the3, and unavailability of critical systems. These risks represent potentially enormous costs to NASA. The NASA Code Q research initiative 'Reducing Software Security Risk (RSSR) Trough an Integrated Approach '' offers, among its capabilities, formal verification of software security properties, through the use of model based verification (MBV) to address software security risks. [1,2,3,4,5,6] MBV is a formal approach to software assurance that combines analysis of software, via abstract models, with technology, such as model checkers, that provide automation of the mechanical portions of the analysis process. This paper will discuss: The need for formal analysis to assure software systems with respect to software and why testing alone cannot provide it. The means by which MBV with a Flexible Modeling Framework (FMF) accomplishes the necessary analysis task. An example of FMF style MBV in the verification of properties over the Secure Socket Layer (SSL) communication protocol as a demonstration.

software↗

Development of a Portfolio Management Approach with Case Study of the NASA Airspace Systems Program

A portfolio management approach was developed for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration s (NASA s) Airspace Systems Program (ASP). The purpose was to help inform ASP leadership regarding future investment decisions related to its existing portfolio of advanced technology concepts and capabilities (C/Cs) currently under development and to potentially identify new opportunities. The portfolio management approach is general in form and is extensible to other advanced technology development programs. It focuses on individual C/Cs and consists of three parts: 1) concept of operations (con-ops) development, 2) safety impact assessment, and 3) benefit-cost-risk (B-C-R) assessment. The first two parts are recommendations to ASP leaders and will be discussed only briefly, while the B-C-R part relates to the development of an assessment capability and will be discussed in greater detail. The B-C-R assessment capability enables estimation of the relative value of each C/C as compared with all other C/Cs in the ASP portfolio. Value is expressed in terms of a composite weighted utility function (WUF) rating, based on estimated benefits, costs, and risks. Benefit utility is estimated relative to achieving key NAS performance objectives, which are outlined in the ASP Strategic Plan.1 Risk utility focuses on C/C development and implementation risk, while cost utility focuses on the development and implementation portions of overall C/C life-cycle costs. Initial composite ratings of the ASP C/Cs were successfully generated; however, the limited availability of B-C-R information, which is used as inputs to the WUF model, reduced the meaningfulness of these initial investment ratings. Development of this approach, however, defined specific information-generation requirements for ASP C/C developers that will increase the meaningfulness of future B-C-R ratings.

Neitzke, Kurt W.↗

Improving Efficacy and Safety of Pharmacological Treatment Through Precision Health and Pharmacogenomics

INTRODUCTION: Future spaceflight will require increased crew medical autonomy as exploration class missions expand in duration and distance from Earth, especially for Mars missions. As mission duration increases, it will be essential to have appropriate amounts of effective medication to ensure the maintenance of crew health and performance. Conversely, mass and volume constraints will become more severe as future spaceflight expands beyond low Earth orbit, where resupply is difficult or becomes impossible. These constraints thus convey an urgency to tailor medications for individual crewmembers and further examine appropriate dosing regimens. BACKGROUND: Precision Health is an exciting area of medicine focused on maintaining an individual’s health and performance through in-depth understanding of an individual’s unique clinical and environmental history, genetic makeup, and molecular profiles. This approach can be adapted to better predict, monitor, and address physiological responses to the spaceflight environment. A subset of this field is pharmacogenomics (PGX), the study of how the expressed genome impacts drug responses with the goal of prescribing the right dose of the right drug at the right time. Specifically, PGX testing provides valuable information on an individual’s precise allelic variations to guide physicians in making informed decisions on drug choice and dosing to avoid adverse events and maximize efficacy. The study goal was to identify which current space pharmacy drugs could be evaluated using PGX testing and to understand the potential impact on the health and wellness of the astronaut population. Additionally, we sought to evaluate clinically available FDA-approved PGX testing solutions to better understand its applicability. METHODS: A complete list of drugs on the ISS was analyzed for risk and likelihood of drug failure and PGX actionability. This analysis encompassed both astronauts’ personal medications, including supplements and over the counter drugs (n=151) contained in the ISS medical accessory kit (IMAK), and ISS MedKit formulary medications (n=95). Duplicate medications and different formulations were removed, which resulted in a total of 157 drugs used in the subsequent analysis. A 5x5 risk assessment table was produced by examining the likelihood of drug failure compared to the consequence of drug failure (LxC). Likelihood of individual drug failure was defined by whether existing processes are sufficient to prevent ineffective treatment or impactful side effect events, as ranked from 1 (very low, can easily be prevented) to 5 (very high, cannot be prevented) during a Mars mission. In contrast, the consequence of drug failure was defined by impact to safety, schedule, cost, or technical criteria and ranked from 1 (very low) to 5 (very high). An assessment of PGX reference laboratories is currently underway to evaluate sample requirements, benefit analysis (cost vs. utility of allele variant analysis), relevance to inflight medication usage, quality of reporting in enabling clinical application, and ease of integration into electronic medical records. RESULTS: Risk assessments (LxC 5x5 table) indicated 128 medications were in the green zone where risk is acceptable, with the remaining 29 of the medications in the yellow or red zone driven predominantly due to drug failure or safety concerns. We found that current PGX testing results could impact 21% of the total medications in the ISS MedKit and IMAK; of these, 9 medications currently have direct clinically actionable guidance available. Results of the clinical PGX solution evaluations as related to these medications will be presented. CONCLUSION: PGX testing has demonstrated clear benefits in terrestrial medicine and clinical environments for the selection of proper medications, avoiding adverse drug reactions, and maximizing drug efficacy. We propose that similar benefits would be bestowed on the astronaut and commercial spaceflight passenger population by performing preemptive preflight PGX testing to reduce risk of mission failure due to ineffective or toxic medications, improve drug efficacy, and further open the door to countermeasure research. For example, PGX results could allow tailoring of specific medications at optimal doses more precisely to each individual astronaut, particularly in areas of space motion sickness, sleep aids, and analgesics. An additional benefit is that PGX results could provide information for better planning of the components of a space pharmacy for deep space missions to be more effective and efficient in the utilization of limited pharmaceutical resources. Finally, while PGX testing of the astronaut corps is not currently conducted, this approach could provide immediate impact in support of mission success by reducing risks, optimizing astronaut performance, and providing valuable insights into long-term astronaut health. Such advancements in clinical decision making are important next steps in building dynamic individual risk profiles for astronauts, increasing selection of the best treatment choice, and providing tailored countermeasures for individual crewmembers.

Pharmacogenomics↗

Multi-Mechanism Flood Hazard Assessment: Example Use Case Studies

Multi-mechanism flood (MMF) events are caused by the combined effects of more than one flooding mechanism. Although floods can result from the occurrence of individual flood mechanisms, they can (and often do) result from multiple flooding mechanisms. MMF events may be more severe than single mechanism events, or they may differ in characteristics. To facilitate comprehensive risk-informed decision-making to protect against and mitigate the effects of flood events, understanding the hazard contributions from MMFs is important. Nevertheless, conventional probabilistic flood hazard assessment approaches typically focus on individual flood hazard mechanisms. This report is part of a research project funded by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) intended to assist NRC in developing the technical basis for guidance on developing probabilistic estimates of flood hazards for combinations of flood mechanisms. Specifically, the purpose of this report is to document two case studies to illustrate approaches for quantifying MMF hazards for inland and coastal flooding scenarios.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Cost Efficient-by-Design Microreactors: Trade-offs between cost, technical, and regulatory factors

This research evaluates a cost reduction investigation through adoption of a functional containment approach on the microreactor system and structure. Trade-offs between microreactor system designs, fuels and reactor module sizes are evaluated based on performance-based and risk-informed design procedures. Cost savings are evaluated against trade-offs in the reliability of passive heat removal systems, reactivity control, and radioactive material containment. Results can inform the Microreactor Program and reactor designs on “sweet spots” for microreactors that are cost-efficient while meeting required safety limits.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Facilitating Data Collection of Maintenance Events to Populate the Hydrogen Component Reliability Database (HyCReD)

The Hydrogen Component Reliability Database (HyCReD) is a collaborative project between the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, the University of Maryland, and hydrogen stakeholders to improve safety and reliability for hydrogen facilities by implementing component reliability data taxonomies that support hydrogen infrastructure failure rate analysis. The project aims to quantify failure rates of hydrogen components through high-quality data collection and analysis on root causes and maintenance needed. HyCReD provides a common database for cataloging hydrogen component failures which exists for reliability research in many other mature industries [2]. The database fills a gap for the hydrogen community by providing a scientifically rigorous approach to quantitative risk assessment (QRA), prognostic health management (PHM), and reliability-centered maintenance (RCM) analysis. High level results will be aggregated and anonymized to protect company sensitive information; detailed results will be used to help address issues of hydrogen components. These advanced analytics will support accelerated deployment of hydrogen infrastructure by enabling better: design and safety of projects (safety codes and standards development), infrastructure reliability and cost (component failure rates, maintenance protocols), and component R&D needs (robust supply chain). A key to a successful HyCReD implementation is facilitating the ease of reporting and data quality in the database that can be used for analysis. Maintenance data was a previously identified gap in initial efforts to populate and validate the database taxonomies [3]. Collection of maintenance data will be instrumental in identifying failure modes and rates, identifying incipient component failures or reduced performance, cataloging best practices for maintenance routines and methods for prognostic health management, and quantifying the risk and effect of different failure modes. Several key priorities are identified for streamlined data collection to achieve quality and detailed failure data: Applicability, Ease of Use, Accessibility, and Information Security. The HyCReD team has now begun deployment of the database to several companies and groups that have signed non-disclosure agreements to facilitate the data collection of failures in industry hydrogen refueling station infrastructure. This paper will provide an update into the process of HyCReD deployment including the development of a coding guide for facility personnel to reference and ensure data quality and consistency from one station to another as well as implementation of contextually dependent data fields of system taxonomy and formatted entries to provide ease of use. The goal is to communicate the lessons learned from the roll-out to technicians and engineers in the field, and the addition of need for high level of security to protect all stakeholders.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Privacy-Preserving Transactive Energy System

In this paper, the privacy issue of recently proposed transactive energy systems for electric power systems is studied for the first time. It is identified that the private information of individual market participants is subject to the risk of leakage during their market-based interaction. In order to protect their privacy, a homomorphic encryption-based approach is developed to achieve the privacy preservation with the Paillier encryption scheme. The proposed privacy-perserving design is then demonstrated on a transactive energy system that coordinates and controls residential air conditioners to manage the feeder congestion. The simulation results confirm the effectiveness of the proposed design in protecting the privacy of individual market participants without affecting the overall system performance. Future work on the proposed design is also suggested.

Lu, Yang↗