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At least 307 records · Page 17
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Using Satellite‐Derived Fire Arrival Times for Coupled Wildfire‐Air Quality Simulations at Regional Scales of the 2020 California Wildfire Season

Abstract Wildfire frequency has increased in the Western US over recent decades, driven by climate change and a legacy of forest management practices. Consequently, human structures, health, and life are increasingly at risk due to wildfires. Furthermore, wildfire smoke presents a growing hazard for regional and national air quality. In response, many scientific tools have been developed to study and forecast wildfire behavior, or test interventions that may mitigate risk. In this study, we present a retrospective analysis of 1 month of the 2020 Northern California wildfire season, when many wildfires with varying environments and behavior impacted regional air quality. We simulated this period using a coupled numerical weather prediction model with online atmospheric chemistry, and compare two approaches to representing smoke emissions: an online fire spread model driven by remotely sensed fire arrival times and a biomass burning emissions inventory. First, we quantify the differences in smoke emissions and timing of fire activity, and characterize the subsequent impact on estimates of smoke emissions. Next, we compare the simulated smoke to surface observations and remotely sensed smoke; we find that despite differences in the simulated smoke surface concentrations, the two models achieve similar levels of accuracy. We present a detailed comparison between the performance and relative strengths of both approaches, and discuss potential refinements that could further improve future simulations of wildfire smoke. Finally, we characterize the interactions between smoke and meteorology during this event, and discuss the implications that increases in regional smoke may have on future meteorological conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Autonomous Tools for Attack Surface Reduction (Final Report)

The electric power grid is a complex critical infrastructure that forms the lifeline of modern society, and its secure and reliable operation is of paramount importance to national security and economic wellbeing. However, recent findings documented in authoritative sources indicate the threat of cyber-based attacks growing in numbers and sophistication. However, securing the grid against stealthy cyberattacks is a challenging task due to legacy nature of the infrastructure coupled with dynamic nature of threat landscape and ever-growing sophistication of the adversaries. Additionally, the grid’s attack surface continues to grow with the increased dependence on digital communications and control that now extends to each consumer through smart meters and distributed energy resources. Unfortunately, this expansive surface increases the grid’s vulnerability and further exposes critical control systems in both substations and control centers. To respond to this emerging need, we had successfully assembled an interdisciplinary team with academic- industry partnership to successfully conduct research, development, evaluation, demonstration, and commercialization of attack surface reduction tools, whose goal was to significantly reduce the cyber attack surface in the North American power grid. Our proposed project was a synergistic collaborative effort leveraging the synergistic expertise of the team members across power systems, cyber security and CPS security, testbeds, field deployments and demonstration, and successful commercialization. The following are the specific tasks that have been successfully completed two phases (2016-2020). Phase I: Task 1: Developed and implemented a robust Project Management and Data Management Plan, coupled with a well thought out Risk Mitigation Plan. Task 2.1: Developed a comprehensive framework that continually assesses and autonomously reduces the attack surface for the power grid control environment spanning across substations, control center and the SCADA network to significantly reduce the risks of cyber attacks. Task 2.2: Developed attack surface analysis techniques, metrics, and tools that assess the attack surface at multiple levels including the control center, substations, and the SCADA network. Task 2.3: Developed attack surface reduction techniques and tools that dynamically reduce attack surface and hence increase attacker’s cost without interfering in the critical functions of the system. Task 2.4: Prototyped, implemented, and quantitatively evaluated/validated the techniques and tools on a realistic industrial CPS security testbed environment by leveraging the unique resources of the team. Task 3: Developed Commercialization plan to transition the developed tools into power system industry stakeholders for a broader adoption by leveraging the expertise of our industrial members. Phase II: Task 4: Successfully completed field demonstration, verification, and evaluation of the effectiveness of the attack surface analysis and reduction techniques on a realistic utility testbed environment. This also involved the development of realistic scenarios, sound metrics, data sets, evaluation criteria, and documentation. Technology integration & Field demonstration: The project had significantly advanced the state-of-the-art research and practice in improving the cybersecurity of our nation’s power grid infrastructure against cyber threats. In particular, the proposed, designed, and deployed attack surface analysis and reduction algorithms and tools have contributed to significantly reducing the exposure and risk of the devices, substations, and the integrated SCADA/EMS/ DMS grid environment to cyber threat. Strong demonstration and evaluation techniques have verified the feasibility of the developed techniques on realistic cyber-physical testbeds and utility partner's real grid environment, and collaborative research and evaluation of attack surface reduction techniques (for wide-are monitoring and control) within a vendor (GE) EMS platform. The Attack Host Analyzer (AHA) tool that was developed through this project was made available through GitHub.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
NASA NTRS2003

Probabilistic risk reduction

We present an integrated approach to risk assessment and risk mitigation that is well suited to planning the development of complex software systems.

risk requirements architectures↗
DOE OSTI2020

The Ristra Project: FY20/21 Milestone Report

The ASC Advanced Technology Development and Mitigation (ATDM) sub-program was established in 2014 to develop new simulation tools operating on exascale-class computers to serve NNSA (see Appendix B). Over the course of ATDM, LANL management have set a strategy for exascale-class application codes that follows two supportive and mutually risk-mitigating paths: evolution for established production integrated design codes (IDCs) – with a strong pedigree within the user community – based upon existing programming paradigms(MPI+X); and a new start ATDM project, Ristra, a high-risk/high-reward push for a next-generation multi-physics, multi-scale simulation toolkit based on emerging advanced programming systems(with an initial focus on data-flow task-based models exemplified by Legion). The role of Ristra as the high-risk/high-reward path for LANL’s codes was fully consistent with the goals of ATDM as described in Appendix B, in particular its emphasis on evolving ASC capabilities through novel computing programming models and computing technologies.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS2004

Hot Structure Control Surface Progress for X-37 Technology Development Program

The NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) has been leading the development of technologies that will enable the development, fabrication, and flight of the automated X-37 Orbital Vehicle (OV). With the Administration s recent announcement of the Vision for Space Exploration, NASA placed the X-37 OV design on hold while developing detailed requirements for a Crew Exploration Vehicle, but has continued funding the development of high-risk, critical technologies for potential future space exploration vehicle applications. Hot Structure Control Surfaces (HSCS) technology development is one of the high-priority areas being funded at this time. The goal of HSCS research is to mitigate risk by qualifying the lightest possible components that meet the stringent X-37 OV weight and performance requirements, including Shuttle-type reen- try environments with peak temperatures of 2800 OF. The small size of the X-37 OV (25.7-feet long and 14.9-foot wingspan) drives the need for advanced HSCS because the vehicle's two primary aerodynamic surfaces, the flaperons and ruddervators, have thicknesses ranging from approximately 5 in. down to 1 in. Traditional metallic or polymer-matrix composites covered with tile or blanket thermal protection system (TPS) materials cannot be used as there is insufficient volume to fabricate such multi-component structures. Therefore, carbon-carbon (C-C) and carbodsilicon-carbide (C-SiC) composite HSCS structures are being developed in parallel by two teams supporting the X-37 prime contractor (The Boeing Company). The Science Applications International Coy. (SAIC) and Carbon-Carbon Advanced Technologies, Inc. (C-CAT) team is developing the C-C HSCS, while the General Electric Energy Power Systems Composites (GE-PSC) and Materials Research and Design (MRD) team is developing the C-SiC HSCS. These two teams were selected to reduce the high level of risk associated with developing advanced control surface components. They have continued HSCS development work as part of the X-37 critical technology development contract. The SAIC/C-CAT team is using Advanced Carbon-Carbon (ACC) because its fabrication is very similar to the process used for Space Shuttle Reinforced Carbon-Carbon fabrication, including the Sic-based pack cementation conversion coating systems using with both materials. ACC was selected over RCC because it has much higher tension and compressions strengths, and because T-300 fiber is readily available, whereas RCC rayon fiber is no longer manufactured. The GE-PSC/MRD team is using a T-300 fiber-reinforced Sic matrix composite material densified by chemical vapor infiltration. The C-Sic material has an Sic-based environmental barrier coating. Major accomplishments have been made over the past year by both HSCS teams. C-C and C- SiC flaperon subcomponents, which are truncated full-scale versions of flight hardware, have been fabricated and are undergoing testing at the NASA Dryden Flight Research Center, NASA Langley Research Center, and U.S. Air Force Research Laboratory. By the end of 2004, ruddervator subcomponents also will be delivered and tested. As NASA moves forward in realizing the Vision for Space Exploration, it will continue to invest in advanced research and development aimed at making new generations of spacecraft safer, more reliable, and more affordable. The X-37 HSCS effort ultimately will benefit the Agency's vision and mission.

Valentine, P. G.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Unlocking the Path to Decarbonized Building Thermal Systems: Strategies for Designers and Contractors: Preprint

The design and construction community plays a pivotal role in facilitating the transition to decarbonized thermal systems that maintain human comfort while reducing building emissions. Through the U.S. Department of Energy Better Buildings initiative's Design and Construction Allies, a cohort of leading architecture, engineering, and construction firms have identified top ranked barriers that designers and contractors face when implementing solutions for building owners. These barriers to decarbonizing thermal - especially heating - systems include equipment availability; electrical capacity constraints; space allocations; complex system configurations; and lack of experience in designing, installing, and maintaining heat pumps. These impediments significantly amplify the risk and financial burden associated with the adoption of decarbonized solutions. The barriers also decrease the likelihood that designers, contractors, and owners will adopt decarbonization strategies without clear plans and guidance on how to implement these solutions, mitigate risk, and overcome the identified barriers. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory, the Design and Construction Allies, and the American Society of Heating, Refrigerating, and Air-Conditioning Engineers have developed "how to" thermal decarbonization guidance based on best practices. The subjects covered range from the role of energy efficiency in facilitating decarbonized heating solutions to strategies for decarbonizing new and existing heating, ventilating, and air-conditioning systems. The focus is on overcoming barriers so that energy-efficient, electrified buildings - both new and retrofit - become the industry standard. This paper outlines 1) the method used to collect and organize this guidance, 2) industry barriers to decarbonization, and 3) decarbonization techniques that have broad market applicability.

building heating↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Off Earth Landing and Launch Pad Construction – A Critical Technology for Establishing a Long-Term Presence on Extraterrestrial Surfaces

Space Policy Directive 1 has refocused the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) to lead the return of humans to the Moon for long-term exploration and utilization. A long-term presence on the moon will require numerous lunar landings and launches to build up surface assets, rotate crew, and deliver resources to/from the moon. Interactions between landing/launch plumes and the unprepared surface cause regolith to be eroded and ejected at high velocities from beneath the vehicle. The associated ejecta elevates mission risks by obscuring sensors and human vision during landing; cratering/modifying the surface that the vehicle will land upon; and subjecting the vehicle, surrounding assets, and potentially orbital assets to impacts from high velocity dust particles. A method to mitigate risks stemming from landing/launch plume ejecta is to construct reusable landing/launch pads. A landing/launch pad can provide a known landing/launch surface, minimize ejecta, protect assets from liberated particles, and provide protection in case of a landing/launch anomaly. This presentation will summarize previous work towards construction of off-Earth landing/launch pads and identify key technology gaps. Additionally, this presentation establishes metrics for comparison of pad construction technologies and trades current approaches. The overall objective of this paper is to baseline the state of the art of off-Earth landing/launch pad construction technologies and serve as the starting point for further technical development.

Landing & Launch Pad↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Flight Testing of In-Time Safety Assurance Technologies for UAS Operations

Ongoing research at NASA is driven by a strategic plan defined by the Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate and a vision for future In-Time Aviation Safety Management Systems (IASMS) as described by the National Academies. In both visions, system safety awareness and provision are expanded through increased access to relevant data; integrated analysis and predictive capabilities; improved real-time detection and alerting of domain-specific hazards; decision support, and in some cases, automated risk mitigation strategies. One primary research focus is to develop means by which more timely (i.e., “in-time”) actions may be taken to mitigate precursors, anomalies, or trends that are observed during operations. In this paper, we describe such means as a collection of Services, Functions, and Capabilities (SFCs) that are supported by an underlying information system. For example, an integrated risk assessment capability is envisioned that continuously monitors safety-related metrics and margins and recommends timely operational changes. Assessment functions and/or services can be based on data analytics and predictive models derived from heterogeneous data sets that span relevant indicator metrics and their time histories. Likewise, on-board functions can identify and reduce susceptibility to precursor conditions that have led (and can lead) to aircraft loss-of-control or out-of-control accidents. This paper summarizes development and testing of such an information system tailored to hazards anticipated for future highly autonomous flight missions near and over densely populated areas. Testing is accomplished via simulation and by using small, unmanned aircraft operating over a test range at NASA’s Langley Research Center. Flight plans and test scenarios are defined to emulate several use-cases, including package delivery; reconnaissance; fire management; and urban air taxi vertiport operations. Two test phases are summarized with Phase 1 occurring in (2019-2020) and Phase 2 ongoing (2021-present). Results focus on SFC performance, technology readiness level assessment, and requirements discovery/validation. Companion papers are cited throughout for additional details on the recent testing.

safety management↗
NASA NTRS2019

Risk Estimation of Threatening Asteroids

When faced with the question of designing an asteroid deflection mission or with the decision of launching it, significant uncertainties are present in the asteroid’s physical properties, and its orbit solution. The success of the deflection mission relies heavily on these aspects. For example, a heavier than expected asteroid will reduce the imparted deflection DV. So will a larger porosity value by reducing the beta factor [1]. Here, we present a new capability that estimates asteroid impact risk under consideration of these uncertainties. The new method samples the uncertainty space along multiple dimensions, performs a predetermined deflection, propagates the deflected samples to the Earth, models the impact damage, and estimates the overall risk outcome. The work builds on the Probabilistic Asteroid Impact Risk (PAIR) assessment tool [2] by including orbital uncertainty and deflection capabilities. We demonstrate this risk estimation approach for threatening asteroids using the example of the fictitious impactor 2019 PDC. Such analysis provides a quantitative basis for the work of decision makers and disaster managers. It may further find application in areas such as mitigation mission planning where projected post-mitigation risk can be compared to premitigation levels as a means of cost-benefit analysis formitigation options.

Rumpf, Clemens↗
DOE OSTI2020

Risk Model for EM Decision Support Toolsets

The Government Office of Accountability (GAO) has published several reports identifying the need for the Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Environmental Management (EM) to address mounting costs for DoE's cleanup program. DOEEM could greatly benefit from independent decision tool-sets/models that would allow them to evaluate options and inform business decision at the enterprise level considering site-specific life cycle costs and system plans. Program goals: Develop a tool-set that enables EM to independently evaluate alternatives, assess outcomes from different contracting strategies, and inform critical decisions for the enterprise. Project goals: Adaption of a Risk Model for integration with complimentary tool-sets for project level decision making. Operational Events: Discrete event model that evaluates operational variables (e.g. capacity, throughput, maintenance constraints) and identify bottlenecks. Identifying and Bounding Project Risk: Identify risks that impact confidence in meeting goals (e.g. production). Life cycle Cost: Evaluate impacts of staffing levels, inventory, and capital investments on life cycle costs. Methods and approach: Monte Carlo Analysis is being executed to generate results: Input derives from Risk Register Data; Tied to Projected and Target Schedules; Incorporates float duration within the model. Assumes associated risk mitigation actions being completed within a timeline of five fiscal years. Metrics include: Confidence in Meeting Production Goal; Confidence in Safety Standards; Confidence in Continuous Operation; Other Metrics can be added as appropriate regarding specific site needs. The adapted risk model can be used as a stand alone decision tool or can be integrated complementary tool-sets (i.e. process and cost models) for project-specific decisions. These support tool-sets can then be integrated with others for site- and complex- level evaluations. Future work includes designing an adaptable and modular framework that would allow integration of multiple tool-sets for holistic and/or targeted evaluation of alternative strategies for decision making that could lead to risk and cost reduction across the enterprise.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2022

Guide to the Distributed Energy Resource Risk Management Framework

The emergence of distributed energy resources (DERs) has transformed the electric power sector and will likely have even more profound impacts on the future evolution of the United States energy sector as it modernizes and becomes more reliant upon complex informatics programming and systems to ensure that our power grid remains safe from malicious interference. To mitigate risks associated with the increased and diversified use of DERs, the Distributed Energy Resource Cybersecurity Framework (DER-CF) was developed in 2019. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory extended the scope of the DER-CF to include the RMF. To address the challenges faced by federal energy managers and energy system stakeholders in applying the RMF to DER systems, the Distributed Energy Resource Risk Manager (DER-RM) is a six-step process to proactively manage cybersecurity risk in a methodical manner. The DER-RM is independent of the DER-CF's existing assessment, allowing users to focus specifically on the RMF steps. The tools are targeted to different processes - DER-CF enables organizations to perform self-assessments to improve their cybersecurity posture, while DER-RM assists organizations in achieving compliance with specific requirements. This document provides an overview of the DER-RM. The RMF process outlined in this report serves as a guide to diagnose information and operational system threats, gather required materials to comply with industry standards, and document plans for achieving Authority to Operate. Using the DER-RM, federal agencies and other organizations can easily and intuitively follow the RMF process, manage the risks to their grid-edge infrastructure through the integration of their on-site DERs, and comply with appropriate requirements.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
NASA NTRS1996

Requirement Metrics for Risk Identification

The Software Assurance Technology Center (SATC) is part of the Office of Mission Assurance of the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC). The SATC's mission is to assist National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) projects to improve the quality of software which they acquire or develop. The SATC's efforts are currently focused on the development and use of metric methodologies and tools that identify and assess risks associated with software performance and scheduled delivery. This starts at the requirements phase, where the SATC, in conjunction with software projects at GSFC and other NASA centers is working to identify tools and metric methodologies to assist project managers in identifying and mitigating risks. This paper discusses requirement metrics currently being used at NASA in a collaborative effort between the SATC and the Quality Assurance Office at GSFC to utilize the information available through the application of requirements management tools.

Hammer, Theodore↗
NASA NTRS2016

Systems Analysis of In-Space Manufacturing Applications for the International Space Station and the Evolvable Mars Campaign

Maintenance logistics support is a significant challenge for extended human operations in space, especially for missions beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO). For missions to Mars (such as NASA's Evolvable Mars Campaign (EMC)), where timely resupply or abort in the event of emergency will not be possible, maintenance logistics mass is directly linked to the Probability of Loss of Crew (P(LoC)), and the cost of driving down risk is an exponential increase in mass requirements. The logistics support strategies that have maintained human operations in LEO will not be effective for these deep space missions. In-Space Manufacturing (ISM) is a promising technological solution that could reduce logistics requirements, mitigate risks, and augment operational capabilities, enabling Earth- independent human spaceflight. This paper reviews maintenance logistics challenges for spaceflight operations in LEO and beyond, and presents a summary of selected results from a systems analysis of potential ISM applications for the ISS and EMC. A quantitative modeling framework and sample assessment of maintenance logistics and risk reduction potential of this new technology is also presented and discussed.

Owens, Andrew C.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Trade-offs of forest management scenarios on forest carbon exchange and threatened and endangered species habitat

Management of forest lands under climate warming poses challenges to managers, some of which are difficult to predict. Examining the trade-offs associated with forest stewardship choices is essential to avoid consequences with loss of natural capital. We utilized LANDIS-II process model simulations for three forested sites located in disparate parts of the United States with the purpose of understanding the trade-offs imposed by management choices under climate warming and associated wildfire. There were only small trade-offs that emerged from the simulations, between habitat area for threatened and endangered species (TES), net ecosystem exchange for CO2 (NEE), and risk of wildfire. Stand management in the form of thinning and prescribed burning typically increased NEE while simultaneously increasing habitat for TES, while reducing the risk of wildfire. These benefits were also observed under a climate warming scenario; however, the benefits were greatly outweighed by the negative impacts f warming on both TES habitat and NEE. Balancing these ecosystem services via thinning and burning treatments is a strategic approach to mitigate risks of wildfire both currently and under a warming future climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2002

An Approach to Risk-Based Design Incorporating Damage Tolerance Analyses

Incorporating risk-based design as an integral part of spacecraft development is becoming more and more common. Assessment of uncertainties associated with design parameters and environmental aspects such as loading provides increased knowledge of the design and its performance. Results of such studies can contribute to mitigating risk through a system-level assessment. Understanding the risk of an event occurring, the probability of its occurrence, and the consequences of its occurrence can lead to robust, reliable designs. This paper describes an approach to risk-based structural design incorporating damage-tolerance analysis. The application of this approach to a candidate Earth-entry vehicle is described. The emphasis of the paper is on describing an approach for establishing damage-tolerant structural response inputs to a system-level probabilistic risk assessment.

Knight, Norman F., Jr.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Space Radiation Technologies for Human Missions beyond Low-Earth-Orbit

Ionizing radiation exposure is a pervasive occupational risk to astronauts and remains a major health risk associated with human exploration beyond low-Earth-orbit. Sustained lunar and Mars exploration crew will be at increased risk of radiogenic cancers and cardiovascular disease, as well as, the potential for in-mission performance decrements, immune system decrements, and late neurodegenerative conditions impacting crew health. Optimizing astronaut space radiation protection will incorporate both physical and biological radiological aspects and will implement protection strategies that span pre-mission, in-flight, and post mission timelines. Major facets of physical risk mitigation include accuracy in predicting the space radiation solar environment, monitoring environmental and human exposures, and minimizing exposure through vehicle shielding and design. Biological mitigation facets include understanding and predicting biological response to the space environment, developing advanced medical countermeasures, and identifying appropriate surveillance strategies to preserve long-term health. Coordinated investments in these major capability areas will support development of an integrated radiation protection solution to minimize astronaut risk for moon to Mars exploration missions.

Lisa C Simonsen↗
DOE OSTI2023

Improving Subsurface Stress Characterization for Carbon Dioxide Storage Projects by Incorporating Machine Learning Techniques

The overall objective of this project is to develop a framework for reliable characterization and prediction of the state of stress in the overburden and underburden (including the basement) in CO 2 storage reservoirs using machine learning and integrated geomechanics and geophysical methods. Specifically, we propose to develop workflow encompassing of technologies and/or methods to predict stress and pressure changes due to CO 2 injection in an active tertiary recovery site and their impacts on subtle fault activation, fractures and occurrence of microseismic events and compare responses to field observations. In this project, we anticipate using dataset from the Farnsworth field Unit (FWU) which is operated by Purdure Petroleum. A novel elastic-waveform VSP inversion technique will be used to estimate high-resolution spatial and temporal changes of elastic moduli in CO 2 storage reservoirs, which will be combined with velocity-stress relationship derived from laboratory tests to obtain subsurface pressure and stress. Clustered microseismic data will be jointly inverted for improved focal mechanisms. Least-squares reverse-time migration of microseismic waveform data will be performed to directly image fracture/fault zones. Additionally, a deep neural network machine learning technique with convolutional and recurrent layers will be used for learning the spectro-temporal structures in microseismic waveforms. The results of this geotechnical data analysis will be integrated to develop a high-resolution 3D mechanical earth model extending from the overburden sealing formations to the underburden including the basement. Mechanical properties will be derived through integration of mechanical logs, tests, available results from chemo-mechanical laboratory tests, and elastic inversion of seismic data using a combination of Bayesian and stochastic methods as well as machine learning technique. Failure features (faults/fractures) will be represented and/or modeled based on seismic and core data analysis. A transient hydrodynamic-geomechanical model will be developed through coupling with the calibrated FWU reservoir simulation model. The full physics coupled model will be used to train a reduced order proxy model using machine learning algorithm for estimating stress which will then be used with appropriate constitutive relationships and forward seismological models to simulate pressure changes and induced microseismicity. An advanced optimization framework will be developed to perform a history match to minimize error between field observations and simulated. The history matched proxy model will be verified against the full-physics equivalent. The field observations that will be used in the coupled model calibration process include pressure/stress inverted from VSP, moment magnitude from microseismic analysis, real time downhole pressure measurements, production and injection data. Parameter sensitivity and uncertainty analysis will be performed to characterize the impact of model parameter uncertainty on stress estimates. The proposed project will have significant impact on future field implementation of the proposed technology. Because the project field site is an ongoing CO 2 EOR development, the value of the new technology will be demonstrated in an operational context and evaluated as a viable risk mitigation strategy. Cost/benefit will be evaluated together with the various commercial incentives for CO 2 sequestration available to oil and gas operators. The extensive available dataset and ongoing data acquisition under the SWP Phase III work plan provides flexibility for investigation of multiple approaches and reduces technical risk.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Acoustic and Genetic Data Can Reduce Uncertainty Regarding Populations of Migratory Tree-Roosting Bats Impacted by Wind Energy

Wind turbine-related mortality may pose a population-level threat for migratory tree-roosting bats, such as the hoary bat (Lasiurus cinereus) in North America. These species are dispersed within their range, making it impractical to estimate census populations size using traditional survey methods. Nonetheless, understanding population size and trends is essential for evaluating and mitigating risk from wind turbine mortality. Using various sampling techniques, including systematic acoustic sampling and genetic analyses, we argue that building a weight of evidence regarding bat population status and trends is possible to (1) assess the sustainability of mortality associated with wind turbines; (2) determine the level of mitigation required; and (3) evaluate the effectiveness of mitigation measures to ensure population viability for these species. Long-term, systematic data collection remains the most viable option for reducing uncertainty regarding population trends for migratory tree-roosting bats. We recommend collecting acoustic data using the statistically robust North American Bat Monitoring Program (NABat) protocols and that genetic diversity is monitored at repeated time intervals to show species trends. There are no short-term actions to resolve these population-level questions; however, we discuss opportunities for relatively short-term investments that will lead to long-term success in reducing uncertainty.

17 WIND ENERGY↗