Results for “Risk Analyses” — Page 17

NASA NTRS2013

Risk-Constrained Dynamic Programming for Optimal Mars Entry, Descent, and Landing

A chance-constrained dynamic programming algorithm was developed that is capable of making optimal sequential decisions within a user-specified risk bound. This work handles stochastic uncertainties over multiple stages in the CEMAT (Combined EDL-Mobility Analyses Tool) framework. It was demonstrated by a simulation of Mars entry, descent, and landing (EDL) using real landscape data obtained from the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter. Although standard dynamic programming (DP) provides a general framework for optimal sequential decisionmaking under uncertainty, it typically achieves risk aversion by imposing an arbitrary penalty on failure states. Such a penalty-based approach cannot explicitly bound the probability of mission failure. A key idea behind the new approach is called risk allocation, which decomposes a joint chance constraint into a set of individual chance constraints and distributes risk over them. The joint chance constraint was reformulated into a constraint on an expectation over a sum of an indicator function, which can be incorporated into the cost function by dualizing the optimization problem. As a result, the chance-constraint optimization problem can be turned into an unconstrained optimization over a Lagrangian, which can be solved efficiently using a standard DP approach.

Ono, Masahiro↗

NASA NTRS2008

Reliability and Confidence Interval Analysis of a CMC Turbine Stator Vane

High temperature ceramic matrix composites (CMC) are being explored as viable candidate materials for hot section gas turbine components. These advanced composites can potentially lead to reduced weight, enable higher operating temperatures requiring less cooling and thus leading to increased engine efficiencies. However, these materials are brittle and show degradation with time at high operating temperatures due to creep as well as cyclic mechanical and thermal loads. In addition, these materials are heterogeneous in their make-up and various factors affect their properties in a specific design environment. Most of these advanced composites involve two- and three-dimensional fiber architectures and require a complex multi-step high temperature processing. Since there are uncertainties associated with each of these in addition to the variability in the constituent material properties, the observed behavior of composite materials exhibits scatter. Traditional material failure analyses employing a deterministic approach, where failure is assumed to occur when some allowable stress level or equivalent stress is exceeded, are not adequate for brittle material component design. Such phenomenological failure theories are reasonably successful when applied to ductile materials such as metals. Analysis of failure in structural components is governed by the observed scatter in strength, stiffness and loading conditions. In such situations, statistical design approaches must be used. Accounting for these phenomena requires a change in philosophy on the design engineer s part that leads to a reduced focus on the use of safety factors in favor of reliability analyses. The reliability approach demands that the design engineer must tolerate a finite risk of unacceptable performance. This risk of unacceptable performance is identified as a component's probability of failure (or alternatively, component reliability). The primary concern of the engineer is minimizing this risk in an economical manner. The methods to accurately determine the service life of an engine component with associated variability have become increasingly difficult. This results, in part, from the complex missions which are now routinely considered during the design process. These missions include large variations of multi-axial stresses and temperatures experienced by critical engine parts. There is a need for a convenient design tool that can accommodate various loading conditions induced by engine operating environments, and material data with their associated uncertainties to estimate the minimum predicted life of a structural component. A probabilistic composite micromechanics technique in combination with woven composite micromechanics, structural analysis and Fast Probability Integration (FPI) techniques has been used to evaluate the maximum stress and its probabilistic distribution in a CMC turbine stator vane. Furthermore, input variables causing scatter are identified and ranked based upon their sensitivity magnitude. Since the measured data for the ceramic matrix composite properties is very limited, obtaining a probabilistic distribution with their corresponding parameters is difficult. In case of limited data, confidence bounds are essential to quantify the uncertainty associated with the distribution. Usually 90 and 95% confidence intervals are computed for material properties. Failure properties are then computed with the confidence bounds. Best estimates and the confidence bounds on the best estimate of the cumulative probability function for R-S (strength - stress) are plotted. The methodologies and the results from these analyses will be discussed in the presentation.

Murthy, Pappu L. N.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

IMPACT, A Tool Suite for Crew Health and Performance System Trade Analyses and Decision Support- Transition to Operations

Mission planners, systems engineers, and clinicians that support crew health and performance face very difficult choices on upcoming exploration missions. Given that there will be a heavily constrained mass and volume allocation for a medical system on these missions, what medical capability should be manifested to minimize both medical risk and mission risk? Given that not all promising research and technology proposals can be funded, how can proposals be prioritized so that those funded research investments produce the maximum benefit in reducing overall medical risk? The Informing Mission Planning via Analysis of Complex Tradespaces (IMPACT) project seeks to answer these kinds of questions and others to support upcoming exploration missions. IMPACT enables risk-informed and evidence-based trade space analysis for future space vehicles, missions, and systems. This presentation will discuss the long-term HRP and ExMC vision for the larger ecosystem of tools, which include an updated medical database, consisting of an Evidence Library for medical conditions and a medical item database (MedID) for medical resources, dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) capabilities, System Modeling Language (SysML) models, and contextual data visualizations of output data. IMPACT is the result of a multi-center collaborative effort. The trade space analyses performed by IMPACT can directly inform mission, vehicle, and habitat development by quantifying medical risk, given a design reference mission, crew attributes and a set of medical capabilities. This presentation will update the audience on the development status of the IMPACT tool suite as it comes out of its System Acceptance Review (SAR) and nears Transition to Operations (TTO). It will review IMPACT’s constituent parts, briefly discuss typical outputs, and outline the plans for transitioning to operations, currently scheduled for later in FY24. Recent development successes on the IMPACT project include the integration of the Medical Extensible Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tool (MEDPRAT) v2.0 to accommodate segmented missions with multiple carriers and medical systems, full onboarding of the IMPACT Medical Database (IMPACT-MD), clustering medical resources and skills into medical capabilities and mutually-dependent bundles, verification of IMPACT-MD, and the ability to perform trade analyses on different medical sets, different design reference missions (DRM), with different crew complements and extra-vehicular activity (EVA) schedules.

IMPACT↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Impact, A Tool Suite for Crew Health and Performance System Trade Analyses and Decision to Support - Transition to Operations

Mission planners, systems engineers, and clinicians that support crew health and performance face very difficult choices on upcoming exploration missions. Given that there will be a heavily constrained mass and volume allocation for a medical system on these missions, what medical capability should be manifested to minimize both medical risk and mission risk? Given that not all promising research and technology proposals can be funded, how can proposals be prioritized so that those funded research investments produce the maximum benefit in reducing overall medical risk? The Informing Mission Planning via Analysis of Complex Tradespaces (IMPACT) project seeks to answer these kinds of questions and others to support upcoming exploration missions. IMPACT enables risk-informed and evidence-based trade space analysis for future space vehicles, missions, and systems. This presentation will discuss the long-term HRP and ExMC vision for the larger ecosystem of tools, which include an updated medical database, consisting of an Evidence Library for medical conditions and a medical item database (MedID) for medical resources, dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) capabilities, System Modeling Language (SysML) models, and contextual data visualizations of output data. IMPACT is the result of a multi-center collaborative effort. The trade space analyses performed by IMPACT can directly inform mission, vehicle, and habitat development by quantifying medical risk, given a design reference mission, crew attributes and a set of medical capabilities. This presentation will update the audience on the development status of the IMPACT tool suite as it comes out of its System Acceptance Review (SAR) and nears Transition to Operations (TTO). It will review IMPACT’s constituent parts, briefly discuss typical outputs, and outline the plans for transitioning to operations, currently scheduled for later in FY24. Recent development successes on the IMPACT project include the integration of the Medical Extensible Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tool (MEDPRAT) v2.0 to accommodate segmented missions with multiple carriers and medical systems, full onboarding of the IMPACT Medical Database (IMPACT-MD), clustering medical resources and skills into medical capabilities and mutually-dependent bundles, verification of IMPACT-MD, and the ability to perform trade analyses on different medical sets, different design reference missions (DRM), with different crew complements and extra-vehicular activity (EVA) schedules.

IMPACT↗

NASA NTRS1975

Microwave power transmission system studies. Volume 4: Sections 9 through 14 with appendices

The microwave rectifier technology, approaches to the receiving antenna, topology of rectenna circuits, assembly and construction, ROM cost estimates are discussed. Analyses and cost estimates for the equipment required to transmit the ground power to an external user. Noise and harmonic considerations are presented for both the amplitron and klystron and interference limits are identified and evaluated. The risk assessment discussion is discussed wherein technology risks are rated and ranked with regard to their importance in impacting the microwave power transmission system. The system analyses and evaluation are included of parametric studies of system relationships pertaining to geometry, materials, specific cost, specific weight, efficiency, converter packing, frequency selection, power distribution, power density, power output magnitude, power source, transportation and assembly. Capital costs per kW and energy costs as a function of rate of return, power source and transportation costs as well as build cycle time are presented. The critical technology and ground test program are discussed along with ROM costs and schedule. The orbital test program with associated critical technology and ground based program based on full implementation of the defined objectives is discussed.

Maynard, O. E.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Impact, a Tool Suite for Crew Health and Performance System Trade Analyses and Decision Support - Status of Development

Mission planners, systems engineers, and clinicians that support crew health and performance face very difficult choices on upcoming exploration missions. Given that there will be a heavily constrained mass and volume allocation for a medical system on these missions, what medical capability should be manifested to minimize both medical risk and mission risk? Given that not all promising research and technology proposals can be funded, how can proposals be prioritized so that those funded research investments produce the maximum benefit in reducing overall medical risk? The Informing Mission Planning via Analysis of Complex Tradespaces (IMPACT) project seeks to answer these kinds of questions and others to support upcoming exploration missions. IMPACT enables risk-informed and evidence-based trade space analysis for future space vehicles, missions, and systems. This presentation will discuss the long-term HRP and ExMC vision for the larger ecosystem of tools, which include an updated medical database (consisting of an Evidence Library for medical conditions and a medical item database (MedID) for medical resources), dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) capabilities, System Modeling Language (SysML) models, and contextual data visualizations of output data. IMPACT is the result of a multi-center collaborative effort. The trade space analyses performed by IMPACT can directly inform mission, vehicle, and habitat development by quantifying medical risk, given a design reference mission, crew attributes and a set of medical capabilities. This presentation will update the audience on the development status of the tool suite, its constituent parts and the plans for when it will deploy as an operational product, currently scheduled for the end of FY22. Recent development successes on the IMPACT project include the ability to cluster medical resources into medical capabilities and mutually-dependent bundles, the ability to perform trade analyses on different medical sets, different DRMs, and different crew complements, and the ability to specify mission segments as periods of time assigned to one or more members of the crew during which unique mission events occur (e.g., extravehicular activities, surface operations, gravity well adaptations, etc.). IMPACT is gearing up for its verification and validation phase to compile the data package necessary for a successful Transition to Operations (TtO), per the guidance in NPR 8900.1B .

IMPACT↗

NASA NTRS2003

Macromolecular Expression and Function: A New Paradigm for NASA Risk Assessment

Predicting risks in humans of either acute effects such as bone loss or muscle wasting, or late effects such as cancer, is challenging. To an approximation, this is because uncertainties of exposure to stress factors or toxic agents and the uniformity of processing subsequent damage at the cellular level within a complex set of biological variables degrade the confidence of predicting pathologic outcome. A cellular biodosimeter that simultaneously reports 1) the type of damage due to that exposure, 2) the quantity of damage incurred by that exposure, and 3) the dataset used to assess risk of developing pathologic outcome caused by that exposure would therefore be useful for predicting ultimate risks faced by an individual, such as an astronaut. It is suggested that such a biodosimeter can be based upon analyses of gene-expression and protein expression whereby large datasets of cellular response to damage are obtained and analyzed for expression-profiles correlated with established end points and molecular markers predictive for risks being assessed. The usefulness of multiparametric cellular biodosimeters could be realized by quantitatively profiling these datasets using techniques of bioinformatics. Such an approach contributes to the foundation of molecular epidemiology as a new scientific discipline, and represents a new paradigm of risk assessment.

Richmond, Robert↗

NASA NTRS1992

Orbital debris risk analysis and survivability enhancement for Freedom Station manned modules

This paper briefly reviews how 'probability of penetration' analyses are currently performed at NASA, and discusses extension of this procedure to a 'probability of loss' analysis through identifying penetration hazards and failure modes. It goes on to discuss alternatives for increasing crew safety through redesign and/or augmentation of interior manned module systems, and describes an elementary analysis maximizing crew safety considering one identified penetration-induced failure mode (depressurization) and one interior design factor (number of hatches open).

Williamsen, Joel E.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Human Immune Function and Microbial Pathogenesis in Human Spaceflight

This oral presentation was requested by Conference conveners. The requested subject is microbial risk assessment considering changes in the human immune system during flight and microbial diversity of environmental samples aboard the International Space Station (ISS). The presentation will begin with an introduction discussing the goals and limitations of microbial risk assessment during flight. The main portion of the presentation will include changes in the immune system that have been published, historical data from microbial analyses, and initial modeling of the environmental flora aboard ISS. The presentation will conclude with future goals and techniques to enhance our ability to perform microbial risk assessment on long duration missions.

Pierson, Duane J.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Conversion of Environment Files from ORDEM 3 & MEM 3 to STENVI

To perform Micrometeoroid and Orbital Debris (MMOD) analyses, NASA describes the orbital debris particle environment using the ORDEM 3 tool and the micrometeoroid environment using the MEM 3 tool. Both output files that detail the flux of particles as a function of several parameters. European MMOD analyses use different tools to perform similar functions, including the Meteoroid And Space debris Terrestrial Environment Reference (MASTER) environment model, which outputs flux data in the Standard Environment Interface (STENVI) format. The NASA Johnson Space Center Hypervelocity Impact Technology Group was asked to create a converter to translate flux data from the output file formats used by ORDEM 3.x and MEM 3 into the STENVI file format. Validation was performed to ensure that the converter was reproducing the input data correctly. The Bumper 3 MMOD risk assessment tool has a capability for reading ORDEM 3.x, MEM 3, and STENVI environment file formats and was used to compare MMOD risk results generated using the converter’s output STENVI files to the risk results generated using the input ORDEM 3.x and MEM 3 igloo files. Specific point comparisons validated that the converter translated the environment data correctly, producing the intended output. However, realistic risk assessments showed that the bin methodology employed by Bumper for determining particle flux as a function of particle size when reading files in STENVI format produces much higher MMOD risk than the point-interpolation methodology used in Bumper risk assessments using ORDEM and MEM. Modifications to how Bumper 3 reads STENVI files during analyses are considered to improve Bumper’s ability to perform useful analyses with environment files in this format.

STENVI↗

NASA NTRS2023

Conversion of ORDEM 3.X & MEM 3 Into STENVI File Format

To perform Micrometeoroid and Orbital Debris (MMOD) analyses, NASA describes the orbital debris particle environment using the ORDEM 3 tool and the micrometeoroid environment using the MEM 3 tool. Both output files that detail the flux of particles as a function of several parameters. European MMOD analyses use different tools to perform similar functions, including the Meteoroid And Space debris Terrestrial Environment Reference (MASTER) environment model, which outputs flux data in the Standard Environment Interface (STENVI) format. The NASA Johnson Space Center Hypervelocity Impact Technology Group was asked to create a converter to translate flux data from the output file formats used by ORDEM 3.x and MEM 3 into the STENVI file format. Validation was performed to ensure that the converter was reproducing the input data correctly. The Bumper 3 MMOD risk assessment tool has a capability for reading ORDEM 3.x, MEM 3, and STENVI environment file formats and was used to compare MMOD risk results generated using the converter’s output STENVI files to the risk results generated using the input ORDEM 3.x and MEM 3 igloo files. Specific point comparisons validated that the converter translated the environment data correctly, producing the intended output. However, realistic risk assessments showed that the bin methodology employed by Bumper for determining particle flux as a function of particle size when reading files in STENVI format produces much higher MMOD risk than the point-interpolation methodology used in Bumper risk assessments using ORDEM and MEM. Modifications to how Bumper 3 reads STENVI files during analyses are considered to improve Bumper’s ability to perform useful analyses with environment files in this format.

STENVI↗

DOE OSTI2020

Risk-Informed ATF and FLEX Analysis for an Enhanced Resilient BWR Under Design-Basis and Beyond-Design-Basis Accidents

This report documents the activities performed by the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) during fiscal year (FY) 2020 for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program, Risk-Informed System Analysis (RISA) Pathway, Enhanced Resilient Plant (ERP) Systems research. The purpose of the RISA Pathway research and development is to support plant owner-operator decisions with the aim to improve the economics, reliability, and maintain the high levels of safety of current nuclear power plants over periods of extended plant operations. The concept of ERP refers to the combinations of accident-tolerant fuel (ATF), optimal use of diverse and flexible coping strategy (FLEX), enhancements to plant components and systems, and the incorporation of augmented or new passive cooling systems, as well as improved fuel cycle efficiency. The objective of the ERP research effort is to use the RISA methods and toolkit in industry applications, including methods development and early demonstration of technologies, in order to enhance existing reactors’ safety features (both active and passive) and to substantially reduce operating costs through risk-informed approaches to plant design modifications to the plant and their characterization. One main focus of the FY 2020 efforts documented in this report was to extend the analyses conducted in FYs 2018 and 2019 for a pressurized water reactor (PWR) to a boiling water reactor (BWR). The same analysis process, risk analysis approaches, and analysis tools as in the previous work for PWR were used for a generic BWR with near-term ATF cladding (i.e., Iron-Chromium-Aluminum [FeCrAl] cladding and Chromium [Cr]-coated cladding) designs under the postulated station blackout (SBO) and medium loss-of-coolant (MLOCA) accident scenarios. In addition, a FLEX model was developed and incorporated into a generic BWR probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) model using the INL-developed software tool, Systems Analysis Programs for Hands-on Integrated Reliability Evaluations (SAPHIRE), to assess the risk impact from FLEX. The other main focus of the FY 2020 efforts was to advance analysis methods, including developing dynamic approach for FLEX human reliability analysis (HRA) using the INL-developed software tool, Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Linked Diagrams (EMRALD), as well as developing a multicriterion benefit evaluation (MCBE) method for evaluating costs and benefits of safety enhancements in nuclear power plants (NPPs). As a case study, the MCBE method was applied to evaluate the costs and benefits brought by FLEX implementation.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Circulating levels of micronutrients and risk of osteomyelitis: a Mendelian randomization study

Background Few observational studies have investigated the effect of micronutrients on osteomyelitis, and these findings are limited by confounding and conflicting results. Therefore, we conducted Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses to evaluate the association between blood levels of eight micronutrients (copper, selenium, zinc, vitamin B12, vitamin C, and vitamin D, vitamin B6, vitamin E) and the risk of osteomyelitis. Methods We performed the two-sample and multivariable Mendelian randomization (MVMR) to investigate causation, where instrument variables for the predictor (micronutrients) were derived from the summary data of micronutrients from independent cohorts of European ancestry. The outcome instrumental variables were used from the summary data of European-ancestry individuals ( n = 486,484). The threshold of statistical significance was set at p < 0.00625. Results We found a significant causal association that elevated zinc heightens the risk of developing osteomyelitis in European ancestry individuals OR = 1.23 [95% confidence interval (CI) [1.07, 1.43]; p = 4.26E-03]. Similarly, vitamin B6 showed a similar significant causal effect on osteomyelitis as a risk factor OR = 2.78 (95% CI [1.34, 5.76]; p = 6.04E-03; in the secondary analysis). Post-hoc analysis suggested this result (vitamin B6). However, the multivariable Mendelian randomization (MVMR) provides evidence against the causal association between zinc and osteomyelitis OR = 0.98(95% CI [−0.11, 0.07]; p = 7.20E-1). After searching in PhenoScanner, no SNP with confounding factors was found in the analysis of vitamin B6. There was no evidence of a reverse causal impact of osteomyelitis on zinc and vitamin B6. Conclusion This study supported a strong causal association between vitamin B6 and osteomyelitis while reporting a dubious causal association between zinc and osteomyelitis.

Zhang, Xu↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Comparison of Artemis 2 and Artemis 5 Model Outcomes Using the Impact Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tool

BACKGROUND The Artemis campaign is a Moon exploration program with a series of six planned missions, five of which will be crewed. These five crewed missions will contain a single mission segment (space flight), or multiple mission segments involving space flight (Orion), lunar landing (LTV) and/or space habitat (Gateway). Each crewed segment faces the risk of unique medical conditions, necessitating medical sets/kits tailored to those specificities. To support and enable a data-driven and evidence-based decision-making process through out a mission’s life cycle, a software tool called IMPACT was developed. Using probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methodologies, IMPACT (Informing Mission Planning via Analysis of Complex Tradespaces) is a novel tool built for analyzing the possibility of encountering complex medical risks during space flight, and for identifying the medical resources and capabilities needed to treat those potential at-risk medical conditions. This presentation will seek to compare IMPACT’s computational results upon potential complex space medical conditions (e.g., sprain/strain back or sleep disturbance) using IMPACT’s risk metrics and the associated optimized medical sets/kits between two Artemis missions: single segment Artemis 2 and multi-segmented Artemis 5. OVERVIEW By identifying potential medical conditions in space using input criteria such as crew quantity and composition, certain crew physical characteristics, mission duration and mission activities, IMPACT can produce analyses on the type of medical resources and capabilities needed to produce an optimized medical set/kit to address those medical conditions. IMPACT achieves this by performing hundreds of thousands of Monte Carlo simulations of missions to build aggregate pictures of medical risk. IMPACT’s risk metrics include loss of crew life (LOCL) – a measure of crew mortality due to medical conditions in space, return to definitive care (RTDC) – the need to perform crew evacuation, and task time lost (TTL) – a measure of the inability to perform activities due to crew disability. These risk metrics are applied to every medical condition identified by IMPACT’s computation analyses for every segment of the mission. Medical sets/kits are optimized to address these medical conditions but must fit within the stated Artemis Design Reference Mission (DRM) request for mass and volume physical size constraints. ANTICIPATED ANALYSIS AND CONCLUSION Using two Artemis missions, Artemis 2 and Artemis 5, IMPACT will provide the analyses for comparison of medical set/kit contents based upon mass and/or volume requirements and identify the at-risk medical conditions within both missions. This paper serves as an initial exploration of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) medical risk calculations between two crewed Artemis missions and is not intended to be deemed the official medical response for the Artemis campaign.

probabilistic risk assessment↗

DOE OSTI2022

Automatic Generation of Event Trees and Fault Trees: A Model-Based Approach

In the past few decades, the increasing complexity of modern engineering systems has been driven by the integration of a large number of components whose operations may involve many disciplines (e.g., thermal hydraulics, plant operations, cybersecurity). Most computational tools used by industry and regulators for system safety and reliability assessments are still based on the traditional fault tree (FT) and event tree (ET) approach, which may not be able to capture complex interactions among system constituents. The use of simulation tools has widely increased in the past few decades to improve the fidelity of the reliability and safety analyses. However, the direct use of simulation tools as part of dynamic probabilistic risk assessment (DPRA) methods is not getting traction since (1) modeling the whole system under consideration with DPRA methods may be computationally expensive and unnecessary, and (2) the manual integration of DPRA models into existing state-of-practice probabilistic risk assessment models (i.e., based on FTs and ETs) can be time consuming and prone to errors. Here, in this paper we propose a procedure to overcome this limitation by presenting several algorithms designed to automatically construct subsystem ETs and FTs from DPRA methods for integration into an existing ET/FT system model.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Symptoms and Systemic Drug Reactions in Persons Receiving Weekly Rifapentine Plus Isoniazid (3HP) Treatment for Latent Tuberculosis Infection

Abstract Background Three months of weekly rifapentine plus isoniazid (3HP) therapy for latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) is recommended worldwide. The development of symptoms and systemic drug reactions (SDRs) on 3HP have not been fully characterized. We aimed to determine the patterns of symptom development and identify SDRs and associated factors in patients taking 3HP. Methods We analyzed symptoms data in participants receiving 3HP in the Tuberculosis Trials Consortium's iAdhere study (Study 33). We examined the patterns of symptom reporting across participants from baseline and 4 monthly visits. Bivariate analyses and multivariable regression models were used to identify factors associated with SDRs. Risk ratios (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated. Results Among 1002 participants receiving 3HP, 768 (77%) reported at least 1 symptom; 97% of these symptoms were grade 1 (79%) or grade 2 (18%). Most symptoms developed in the first month and resolved. A total of 111 (11%) participants had symptoms that met criteria for SDRs; however, 53 (48%) of these participants completed therapy. Factors associated with SDRs and discontinuation included female sex (RR: 2.05; 95% CI: 1.19–3.54), age ≥45 years (RR: 1.99; 95% CI: 1.19–3.31), and use of concomitant medications (RR: 2.26; 95% CI: 1.15–4.42). Conclusions Although most patients receiving 3HP reported symptoms, most were mild, occurred early, and resolved without stopping treatment. Among patients experiencing SDRs, nearly half were able to complete therapy. Patient and provider education should focus on differentiating severe reactions where 3HP should be stopped from minor symptoms that will resolve. Clinical Trials Registration. NCT01582711.

Immunology↗

NASA NTRS1984

Characteristics of lightning strikes experienced by the NASA F-1068 airplane

Thunderstorm penetrations were made during the 1980-1983 thunderstorm seasons by a NASA F-106B instrumented research aircraft in order to record lightning strike data and associated flight conditions. In 1980 and 1981, 10 direct lightning hits were received each year, with most penetrations occurring near the freezing level. In 1982 and 1983, a ground-based UHF-band radar was used to guide this aircraft through the upper, electrically active regions of thunderstorms (at altitudes above 6 km, corresponding to temperatures of less than -20 C), and 370 direct hits were recorded. The results of analyses of the radar, photographic, and surface inspection data are presented. The highest risk of lightning strike in the upper portions of a thundercloud occurred in regions where the ambient temperature was -40 to -50 C. Lightning strikes appear to be triggered by the aircraft.

Fisher, B. D.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Flood and Landslide Applications of High Time Resolution Satellite Rain Products

Experimental, potentially real-time systems to detect floods and landslides related to heavy rain events are described. A key basis for these applications is high time resolution satellite rainfall analyses. Rainfall is the primary cause for devastating floods across the world. However, in many countries, satellite-based precipitation estimation may be the best source of rainfall data due to insufficient ground networks and absence of data sharing along many trans-boundary river basins. Remotely sensed precipitation from the NASA's TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) operational system (near real-time precipitation at a spatial-temporal resolution of 3 hours and 0.25deg x 0.25deg) is used to monitor extreme precipitation events. Then these data are ingested into a macro-scale hydrological model which is parameterized using spatially distributed elevation, soil and land cover datasets available globally from satellite remote sensing. Preliminary flood results appear reasonable in terms of location and frequency of events, with implementation on a quasi-global basis underway. With the availability of satellite rainfall analyses at fine time resolution, it has also become possible to assess landslide risk on a near-global basis. Early results show that landslide occurrence is closely associated with the spatial patterns and temporal distribution of TRMM rainfall characteristics. Particularly, the number of landslides triggered by rainfall is related to rainfall climatology, antecedent rainfall accumulation, and intensity-duration of rainstorms. For the purpose of prediction, an empirical TMPA-based rainfall intensity-duration threshold is developed and shown to have skill in determining potential areas of landslides. These experimental findings, in combination with landslide surface susceptibility information based on satellite-based land surface information, form a starting point towards a potential operational landslide monitoring/warning system around the globe.

Adler, Robert F.↗