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At least 307 records · Page 17

Quantifying Cyber-Resilience Against Resource-Exhaustion Attacks

Resilience in the information sciences is notoriously difficult to define much less to measure. But in mechanical engi- neering, the resilience of a substance is mathematically defined as the area under the stress vs. strain curve. We took inspiration from mechanics in an attempt to define resilience precisely for information systems. We first examine the meaning of resilience in language and engineering terms and then translate these definitions to information sciences. Then we tested our definitions of resilience for a very simple problem in networked queuing systems. We discuss lessons learned and make recommendations for using this approach in future work.

cyber security↗

Probabilistic Resilience of DER Systems - A Simulation Assisted Optimization Approach

Energy systems resilience is becoming increasingly important as the frequency of major grid outages increases. In this work, we present a methodology to optimize a behind-the-meter distributed energy resource system to sustain a site's critical loads during a pre-defined outage period. With the fixed system design, we then propose an outage simulation approach to estimate the resilience potential of the DER system to sustain loads beyond the fixed outage period - a yearlong resilience performance analysis. We apply statistical analysis to assess the system's resilience performance over a broader parametric problem space on an hourly, monthly, and yearly basis. We demonstrate the impact of the pre-defined outage period on the resilience performance through a case study. Results show that the probability of surviving a random outage of a given duration changes from 20% to 95% when the outage is modeled for a weekday instead of a weekend for the given load-profile.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Adaptation policies to increase terrestrial ecosystem resilience. Potential utility of a multicriteria approach

Climate change is rapidly undermining terrestrial ecosystem resilience and capacity to continue providing their services to the benefit of humanity and nature. Because of the importance of terrestrial ecosystems to human well-being and supporting services, decision makers throughout the world are busy creating policy responses that secure multiple development and conservation objectives- including that of supporting terrestrial ecosystem resilience in the context of climate change. This article aims to advance analyses on climate policy evaluation and planning in the area of terrestrial ecosystem resilience by discussing adaptation policy options within the ecology-economy-social nexus. The paper evaluates these decisions in the realm of terrestrial ecosystem resilience and evaluates the utility of a set of criteria, indicators, and assessment methods, proposed by a new conceptual multi-criteria framework for pro-development climate policy and planning developed by the United Nations Environment Programme. Potential applications of a multicriteria approach to climate policy vis-A -vis terrestrial ecosystems are then explored through two hypothetical case study examples. The paper closes with a brief discussion of the utility of the multi-criteria approach in the context of other climate policy evaluation approaches, considers lessons learned as a result efforts to evaluate climate policy in the realm of terrestrial ecosystems, and reiterates the role of ecosystem resilience in creating sound policies and actions that support the integration of climate change and development goals.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Cost-Benefit Analysis of Electricity Resilience Projects: State of the Art and Gap Analysis

Utilities and regulators must weigh the benefits of electricity resilience projects against their costs, which would be passed on to customers. Cost-benefit analysis (CBA) is an appropriate method for assessing this tradeoff. Here, in this paper we review the literature on CBA of electricity resilience projects and analyze gaps in the available methods and tools. The costs of resilience projects are typically straightforward to estimate but their benefits — particularly the avoided costs of power interruptions — are complex to quantify and monetize. A common perception among practitioners is that current CBA tools are not sufficiently mature to be adopted into real-world practice. We propose an electricity resilience CBA framework consisting of several elements: risks, physical impacts, power interruptions, economic impacts, and resilience projects. While methods for some elements are well-developed, there is a need for novel approaches to value avoided power interruptions, integrate multiple risks and benefit streams, and incorporate uncertainty.

Cost-benefit analysis↗

Ecologically inspired metrics for transitioning to a sustainable and resilient circular economy with application to multilayer plastic films

Current Circular Economy (CE) frameworks applied to product chains exhibit notable shortcomings. These include neglecting the resilience and robustness of design, requiring detailed economic and environmental data for impact assessment, and relying on qualitative rather than quantitative metrics capturing certain CE design aspects. In the current contribution, we addressed these shortcomings by developing an Ecologically inspired (Eco-inspired) Framework using the mathematical foundations of Ecological Network Analysis (ENA). While ENA metrics have previously found application in designing circular economies, particularly in Industrial Symbiosis (IS) networks, our adaptation tailors these metrics for use in product-level CE, recognizing the inherent distinctions between product-level CE and IS. Our Eco-inspired Framework comprises three key categories to provide holistic and granular-level metrics for designing product-level CE. The first set of metrics assesses circularity and resource efficiency. The second set gauges network intensity and robustness as complementary indicators ensuring a CE is both sustainable and resilient. The third group of metrics evaluates enhancement potential of CE strategies through introducing quantitative metrics for measuring the degree of closed-loop strategies and average circularity level of a CE design. The three comprehensive set of indicators within the Eco-inspired Framework uniquely captures various facets of circular design, whether originating from technological innovations and recovery improvement at the end of life (EoL), shifts in human consumption patterns, alterations in product design, or changes in business models. The framework’s application is tested in designing a CE for multilayer Polyethylene-Polyamide (PE-PA) films. Using the Eco-inspired Framework, we identified the best strategy for designing a resilient and sustainable CE for PE-PA films. A diverse set of EoL strategies along with a reduction in product consumption can improve circularity and resilience by 650% and 255%, respectively, and mitigate greenhouse gas emissions by 90%. The framework minimizes trade-offs between sustainability and circularity goals and offers insights on how to enhance each strategy for achieving a resilient and sustainable CE for products.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Integrating Spatial and Ethnographic Methods for Resilience Research: A Thick Mapping Approach for Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico

Hurricane Maria left unprecedented impacts on Puerto Rican communities, leaving some without infrastructure services and unable to communicate with family for several months. Here, to understand the forms of community-level resilience that emerged while hard infrastructure systems took time recover, this article (1) abductively explores resilience as an emergent phenomenon of complex adaptive systems; (2) identifies subsequent forms of social capital, local adaptive capacities, and manifestations of quantifiable variables, such as infrastructure performance, in community experiences; and (3) demonstrates a framework to integrate disparate methodologies for resilience assessments via a multiplicity of mappings of space and place. We combine ethnographic and geospatial methods into an interactive GeoApp for analysis using participant-coded narratives and a series of geospatial indicators as a thick map. Thick mapping facilitates quantitative and qualitative data analysis at several scales, while enabling qualitative query of collected narratives. Results highlight local innovation, community bonding and bridging, and nuances in the role of public institutions as emergent elements of resilience. The thick map shows how top-down assessments can be augmented by thick data and how multiple framings can be anchored in the same system or place. These findings are important to inform and integrate community-oriented and technocentric solutions toward resilience-enhancing measures.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Resilience Analysis of DC Microgrids under Denial of Service Threats

This paper develops a resilience analysis framework to study the fault ride-through capability of direct current (DC) microgrids in unknown denial of service (DoS) cyber incidents. DoS can be a frequent threat to DC microgrids with advanced controllers that hinge on active information exchanges: it can paralyze data communications and cause control ineptness or even system instability. Furthermore, we show that temporal DoS incidents render the DC microgrid cyber-physical topology and parameters time-varying and cause them to jump between faulty conditions. As existing DC microgrid stability analysis results are primarily developed from time-invariant systems, they might not be valid for the DoS interrupted systems. In this paper, we seek to study whether a DC microgrid is resilient against time-varying unknown DoS incidents. The problem is formulated as a stability analysis problem for a system with randomly switching dynamics. Scalable conditions are developed to provide provable resilience guarantees. In addition, we exploit the special structure of the conditions to yield quantified resilience measure by convex optimization techniques. As a result, the measure can be used for the evaluation of the resilience of different DC microgrid design against DoS incidents. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed work using simulation case studies.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Extracting Resilience Metrics From Distribution Utility Data Using Outage and Restore Process Statistics

Resilience curves track the accumulation and restoration of outages during an event on an electric distribution grid. We show that a resilience curve generated from utility data can always be decomposed into an outage process and a restore process and that these processes generally overlap in time. We use many events in real utility data to characterize the statistics of these processes, and derive formulas based on these statistics for resilience metrics such as restore duration, customer hours not served, and outage and restore rates. The formulas express the mean value of these metrics as a function of the number of outages in the event. We also give a formula for the variability of restore duration, which allows us to predict a maximum restore duration with 95% confidence. Overall, we give a simple and general way to decompose resilience curves into outage and restore processes and then show how to use these processes to extract resilience metrics from standard distribution system data.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Resilience Analytics for Interdependent Power and Water Distribution Systems

The occurrence of large-scale outages in power distribution systems (PDSs) caused, for instance, by extreme weather events has raised concerns on the cascading impact of the power outages on the resilience of other critical infrastructures, including water distribution systems (WDSs), whose healthy operation highly relies on the availability of power from PDSs. Here, this paper proposes an analytics model for quantifying the interdependence between the resilience of power and water distribution systems. The proposed model first performs spatio-temporal outage analysis on the PDS and WDS to determine the PDS power serving capability and the resulting cascading impact on the WDS water serving capability during the occurrence of disruptions. The resilience interdependence is then determined by a proposed set of six metrics calculated using the power and water serving capability profiles, which trace and quantify the cascading impacts of power outages in the operation of WDSs during the degradation and recovery stages. The proposed analytics model is implemented on the IEEE 33-bus power distribution system supplying power for pumping stations of a 15-node test WDS, considering multiple cases of water storage capacity, single and multiple outage scenarios, and availability of distributed generation. The numerical results demonstrate that the proposed metrics track the temporal and spatial interdependence between the resilience of power and water distribution systems, providing a mechanism to identify weak spots, and assess options to enhance the resilience of the critical water infrastructure.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

A Framework For Evaluating Comprehensive Fault Resilience Mechanisms In Numerical Programs

As HPC systems approach Exascale, their circuit feature will shrink, while their overall size will grow, all at a fixed power limit. These trends imply that soft faults in electronic circuits will become an increasingly significant problem for applications that run on these systems, causing them to occasionally crash or worse, silently return incorrect results. This is motivating extensive work on application resilience to such faults, ranging from generic techniques such as replication or checkpoint/restart to algorithm-specific error detection and resilience techniques. Effective use of such techniques requires a detailed understanding of (1) which vulnerable parts of the application are most worth protecting (2) the performance and resilience impact of fault resilience mechanisms on the application. This paper presents FaultTelescope, a tool that combines these two and generates actionable insights by presenting in an intuitive way application vulnerabilities and impact of fault resilience mechanisms on applications.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Power Sector Resilience Planning Guidebook: A Self-Guided Reference for Practitioners

The provision of reliable, secure, and affordable electricity is essential to power economic growth and development. The power system is at risk from an array of natural, human-caused, and technological threats, which can cause everything from power interruption to chronic undersupply of energy. It is critical for policymakers, planners, and system operators to safeguard their power systems from these threats by proactively planning for future needs and investing in resilient power systems. This guidebook is a reference for power sector resilience planning that introduces policymakers, power sector investors, planners, system operators, and other energy-sector stakeholders to the key concepts and steps involved in power sector resilience planning. Users can then apply this knowledge in the development of strategic, country-specific processes and identify actions that increase power sector resilience. This guidebook can be used as a stand-alone resource or shared with participants at stakeholder workshops to facilitate discussions and complete key steps of a resilience planning process.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Post Conference Activities for the NCSE 2019 Annual Conference: Sustainable Infrastructure & Resilience

The National Council for Science and the Environment (NCSE) held its 19th Annual Conference from January 7-10, 2019. The NCSE 2019 Annual Conference: Sustainable Infrastructure & Resilience explored how systems thinking that includes tools, data, and synthesis effectively supports the increasingly urgent need to advance a more resilient, sustainable society. Nearly 600 participants from a range of scientific disciplines and sectors including natural and social science, humanities, engineering, government, business, and civil society attended the conference. Post-conference activities planned through this project were planned to extend the impact of the Annual Conference and were made possible through support from the Department of Energy. These efforts included: 1) developing and producing a research pilot on Energy Systems and Resilient Infrastructure, which advances research focused on the better alignment of education and workforce needs with respect to energy resilience; 2) facilitating dialogue and in-person convenings with the Energy Education Community of Practice across the broader NCSE research community; and 3) designing and hosting a webinar series focused on the role of science in infrastructure and resilience. This report summarizes the outcomes of the proposed activities and additional work made possible by support from the Department of Energy.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Measuring and Valuing Resilience: A Literature Review for the Power Sector

The New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) partnered with NREL to address some of the key research needs for New York State in advancing power sector resilience. NYSERDA requested a literature review specifically focused on measuring and valuing energy resilience to identify existing work and gaps in research to inform NYSERDA's energy resilience efforts. While the costs of resilience investments are relatively well known, it is also important to adequately convey the benefits of these investments. This often means assigning metrics and estimating the dollar value of potential advantages of resilience enhancements.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Case Study of the City of Reno: Resilience Valuation and Planning for Solar and Storage on Critical Infrastructure

This case study report documents the City of Reno's efforts to quantify the value of resilience and the entrepreneurial ways through which the City approached the questions of what role solar and storage could play in their resilience efforts and how to value and pay for solar-plus-storage systems. It documents how and why the City of Reno came to the specific conclusion to integrate solar and storage into their Public Safety Center retrofit project and apply for Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Building Resilient Infrastructure and Communities (BRIC) funding. This report provides an overview for other local governments to draw inspiration from when considering how to prioritize community values and pursue multi-stakeholder dialogue around resilient energy solutions. The City of Reno's experience can serve as a starting point for other communities interested in valuing the resilience benefits of solar and storage.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Securing Grid-interactive Efficient Buildings (GEB) through Cyber Defense and Resilient System (CYDRES)

The DOE CYDRES project is driven by the urgent need to address critical research gaps in the domain of cyber-physical security of smart buildings, including Grid-interactive Efficient Buildings (GEBs). CYDRES, a real-time advanced building resilient platform, aims to enhance the cyber-attack-immune capabilities of buildings through multi-layered prevention, detection, and adaptation mechanisms. CYDRES consists of five key modules: a multi-layer network analyzer, an Automatic Fault Detection, Diagnosis, and Prognosis (AFDDP) framework, an intelligent mode selector, a cyber-resilient control framework, and a situation awareness platform. The Network Analyzer employs a data-driven framework that includes a protocol state learning tool and a CRF (Conditional Random Field) command validator. In Hardware-In-the-Loop (HIL) testbeds, it achieved 100% detection accuracy with a false alarm rate of 3%, validating its efficacy in identifying selected cyber-attacks. The AFDDP framework leverages pattern matching, PCA (Principal Component Analysis)-based strategies, and a DBN (Dynamic Bayesian Network)-based fault diagnosis approach to pinpoint the causes of physical system abnormalities using Building Automation System (BAS) data. In HIL experiments, the AFDDP module attained a detection accuracy of over 95% with a false alarm rate below 7%. Additionally, the fault detector utilized machine learning (Random Forest) and deep learning (Multi-Layer Perceptron) methods with acoustic sensor data to achieve a 100% fault detection accuracy in Heating, Ventilation, and Air-Conditioning (HVAC) equipment. The Mode Selector offered real-time impact analysis, allowing immediate actions to protect BASs in the face of emerging threats. The cyber-resilient control framework included an adaptive Model Predictive Control (MPC) and a measurement compensator, reducing temperature violations by up to 94% and improving the total demand flexibility by up to 70% in HIL experiments. Such HIL experiments covered a cyber-attack case and a physical fault case, showcasing CYDRES’ efficiency in maintaining operational continuity during threats. The situation awareness platform in Grafana enhanced real-time threat detection and response visualization, augmenting the operational awareness for building operators. CYDRES demonstrated high technical effectiveness in various test scenarios, particularly in HIL environments. The project's phased development approach ensured efficient use of resources, highlighting its practical feasibility and readiness for commercialization. By enhancing the security and resilience of building operations, CYDRES represents a significant advance in mitigating risks associated with cyber-physical systems, thereby enhancing public confidence in the safety of modern building infrastructure. Future directions for the project include expanding testing protocols, refining AFDDP methodologies, exploring more comprehensive resilient control strategies, and testing in real commercial buildings.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Strategic Planning for Energy-Resilient Communities

Distributed energy resources (DERs) offer flexibility and community benefits in both blue- and black-sky conditions. Outside of a power disruption, they can provide significant cost savings and reduce grid stress during times of high demand. During a disruption to the central grid, these technologies can meet critical energy needs through the use of battery storage. However, communities must consider many planning and design dimensions and tradeoffs to integrate energy systems that meet financial and resilience goals. This presentation, given at the 2026 State Energy Conference of North Carolina, defines resilience in an energy context, discusses strategies and best practices for planning resilient energy systems and sites, including resilience hubs and microgrids, highlights NLR tools and capabilities for helping communities in this space, and features successful case studies in North Carolina related to energy resilience.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Greenhouse gas emissions reduction strategies that maximize portfolio-wide life cycle cost reduction, resilience, and environmental justice benefits

While strategies to achieve net-zero emissions at an individual site are well understood, new analysis methods are required for organizations seeking to achieve net-zero across multiple facilities, each with concurrent priority goals. At a portfolio level, distinct locations present varied challenges that cannot be addressed through singular solutions, and competing goals can take precedence with the assumption that net-zero emissions strategies deter from energy resilience and cost savings, therefore negatively impacting nearby communities. This study tests these assumptions by analyzing 16 diverse sites (varying in size, climate, and energy use) to identify strategies that reduce emissions and assess the impact these strategies have on life cycle costs, resilience, and communities with environmental justice concerns. Methods were developed to approximate missing information essential to net-zero evaluation. Established methods were augmented to evaluate life cycle costs, resilience, and environmental justice impacts across a set of strategies and accommodate the multi-criteria analyses. Potential benefits from identified strategies were quantified using site characteristics and a set of corresponding metrics. The net-zero analysis found that 11 sites could use on-site strategies to eliminate all but 2% of emissions generated. The remaining emissions can be offset, for instance through sequestration, executed at the portfolio scale. On-site carbon-free energy was found to reduce 51% of emissions across all sites; efficiency reduced 19% of emissions; sequestration 16%; procured carbon-free energy 15%; fuel switching 1.6%; and fleet electrification 1.3%. Building electrification, however, increased emissions by 4.4%. Different strategies also provide cost, resilience, and/or environmental justice benefits—the degree to which varies with individual site conditions. The findings indicate an advantage to considering the strategies as a comprehensive set, which leads to co-benefits, both in the ability to achieve net-zero goals and in advancing other goals. The results present the case for comprehensive advanced planning at the portfolio level to prioritize investments that will balance the minimization of emissions and life cycle cost with the maximization of resilience and environmental justice benefits. The novel methods for evaluation and integration, valuation of benefits, and consideration at the portfolio scale allow organizations to select investments that simultaneously address multiple key priorities.

Net-Zero Emissions↗

ARM-IRL: Adaptive Resilience Metric Quantification Using Inverse Reinforcement Learning

The resilience of safety-critical systems is gaining importance due to the rise in cyber and physical threats, especially within critical infrastructure. Traditional static resilience metrics may not capture dynamic system states, leading to inaccurate assessments and ineffective responses to cyber threats. This work aims to develop a data-driven, adaptive method for resilience metric learning. We propose a data-driven approach using inverse reinforcement learning (IRL) to learn a single, adaptive resilience metric. The method infers a reward function from expert control actions. Unlike previous approaches using static weights or fuzzy logic, this work applies adversarial inverse reinforcement learning (AIRL), training a generator and discriminator in parallel to learn the reward structure and derive an optimal policy. The proposed approach is evaluated on multiple scenarios: optimal communication network rerouting, power distribution network reconfiguration, and cyber–physical restoration of critical loads using the IEEE 123-bus system. The adaptive, learned resilience metric enables faster critical load restoration in comparison to conventional RL approaches.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗