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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 307 records · Page 17
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2021

Screening and Qualification of BME Feedthrough Capacitors for a Space Project

Surface mount technology feedthrough ceramic capacitors are gaining popularity in Hi-Rel systems due to small size and great filtering characteristics. In this work, BME feedthrough capacitors compliant with AEC-Q200 requirements have been evaluated, screened and qualified for a space project. Evaluation included analysis of the effect of post-soldering thermal shocks, temperature dependencies of leakage currents, distribution of breakdown voltages, assessments of high-current capability, and thermal resistance of the parts. The parts have been screened and qualified at conditions close to the military requirements for ceramic capacitors. No failures were detected during screening including burning-in, but two samples failed during monitored 2000 hour life testing at 125C and two times rated voltage. Failure analysis revealed manufacturing defects that required additional analysis of screening and qualification test conditions. Highly accelerated life testing (HALT) has been carried out to assess reliability acceleration factors and the probability of failure at the use conditions. An approach to selection of adequate burning-in and life test conditions is discussed.

Alexander Teverovsky↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Porous Microstructure Analysis (PuMA) software

The open-source Porous Microstructure Analysis (PuMA) software was implemented to offer an efficient framework for determining material characteristics from 3D microstructures. Its development was inspired by progress in X-ray microtomography, an imaging technology that captures the internal structure of materials in 3D, and even in a 4D temporal context. Over recent years, this method has transformed the domain of materials science due to its capability to non-destructively examine material microstructures while presenting digital data about their geometrical details. It has provided insights into materials relevant to several NASA missions, including heatshields, parachute fabrics, meteorites, and other advanced composites. PuMA, in its current version 3, delivers an array of features, spanning from basic geometric insights of a microstructure to intricate anisotropic thermo-elastic and chemical behavior. Specifically, the software evaluates morphological attributes (specific surface area, volume fractions, mean intercept lengths, orientation) and physical characteristics (conductivity, elasticity, permeability, and tortuosity). Additionally, it can model material degradation processes, such as oxidation and surface chemistry interactions. The software can generate synthetic microstructures, from straightforward geometrical designs to intricate woven and non-woven geometries. Coupling material generation and characterization enable parametric studies and sensitivity analysis to optimize the microstructural performance and inform design decisions and reliability assessment based on uncertainty quantification. A recent addition to PuMA includes the TomoSAM plugin, devised to incorporate the cutting-edge Segment Anything Model (SAM). SAM is a promptable deep learning model that can identify objects and create image masks in a zero-shot manner, based only on a few user clicks. The synergy between these tools aids in the segmentation of complex 3D datasets from tomography or other imaging techniques, which would otherwise require a laborious manual segmentation process.

Tomography↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Porous Microstructure Analysis (PuMA) software

The open-source Porous Microstructure Analysis (PuMA) software was created to offer an efficient framework for determining material properties from 3D microstructures. Its development was inspired by progress in X-ray microtomography, an imaging technology that captures the internal structure of materials in 3D, and even in a 4D temporal context. Over recent years, this method has transformed the domain of materials science due to its capability to non-destructively examine material microstructures while presenting digital data about their geometrical details. It has provided insights into materials relevant to several NASA missions, including heatshields, parachute fabrics, meteorites, and other advanced composites. PuMA, in its current version 3, delivers an array of features, spanning from basic geometric insights of a microstructure to intricate anisotropic thermo-elastic and chemical behavior. Specifically, the software evaluates morphological attributes (specific surface area, volume fractions, mean intercept lengths, orientation) and physical characteristics (conductivity, elasticity, permeability, and tortuosity). Additionally, it can model material degradation processes, such as oxidation and surface chemistry interactions. The software can generate synthetic microstructures, from straightforward geometrical designs to intricate woven and non-woven geometries. Coupling material generation and characterization enables parametric studies and sensitivity analysis to optimize the microstructural performance and inform design decisions and reliability assessment based on uncertainty quantification. A recent addition to PuMA includes the TomoSAM plugin, devised to incorporate the cutting-edge Segment Anything Model (SAM) into our image segmentation workflow. SAM is a promptable deep learning model that can identify objects and create image masks in a zero-shot manner, based only on a few user clicks. The synergy between these tools aids in the segmentation of complex 3D datasets from tomography and other imaging techniques, which would otherwise require a laborious manual segmentation process.

Tomography↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Reliability-Based Damage Tolerance Framework for Achieving Highly Reusable Launch Systems

The United States Space Force and NASA are exploring approaches that enable rapid launch response via highly reusable launch systems. One hindrance to achieving high reusability is the inability to meet damage tolerance requirements. To this end, a framework for applying reliability-based damage tolerance to space structures is presented. The reliability-based approach employs probabilistic distributions of key input variables such as material properties, geometry, loads, inspection probability, and defect characteristics to predict hardware reliability for the planned mission life. The probabilistic variables needed to perform the reliability assessments are defined and recommendations on how to collect the required data are provided. Several example problems illustrate the implementation and execution of this approach.

Leland Shimizu↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Simplified Model of VIPER Thermal Management System. Part II: Integrated Vehicle

NASA’s Volatiles Investigating Polar Exploration Rover (VIPER) thermal management system (TMS) relies on four loop heat pipes (LHPs) to transport electronic waste heat to the vehicle cooling radiative surface and avoid overheating. The TMS has also ten constant conductance heat pipes (CCHPs) dedicated to balance the thermal load within the internal environment where the avionics boxes are mounted, also called warm electronic box (WEB), and to transport the heat from two of the science payload instruments. The TMS also uses two thermal straps to thermally link the batteries to the WEB. These thermal components, in addition to heaters, thermostat, multi-layer insulation (MLIs), and isolators forms the core of the VIPER TMS. The complex heat transport balance managed by the TMS is challenging to characterize and model. The more fidelity and granularity of a model, the more costly the computational resources needed and the longer the simulation and modeling time. When the priority is to provide quick but reliable assessments of the thermal performance or real time thermal feedback for training of console operators, simplified modeling tools are needed. To satisfy that need, this paper describes the effort to develop and correlate a model of VIPER TMS based on control volume approach. The correlation effort in particular focuses on hibernation, cold thermal balance, and hot thermal balance data from the integrated vehicle thermal vacuum (TVAC) test. Thus, the correlated model captures the heat leaks during hibernations and the performance at two extremes, bounding, operating scenarios.

Loop Heat Pipe↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Simplified Model of VIPER Thermal Management System. Part II: Integrated Vehicle

NASA’s Volatiles Investigating Polar Exploration Rover (VIPER) thermal management system (TMS) relies on four loop heat pipes (LHPs) to transport electronic waste heat to the vehicle cooling radiative surface and avoid overheating. The TMS has also ten constant conductance heat pipes (CCHPs) dedicated to balance the thermal load within the internal environment where the avionics boxes are mounted, also called warm electronic box (WEB), and to transport the heat from two of the science payload instruments. The TMS also uses two thermal straps to thermally link the batteries to the WEB. These thermal components, in addition to heaters, thermostat, multi-layer insulation (MLIs), and isolators forms the core of the VIPER TMS. The complex heat transport balance managed by the TMS is challenging to characterize and model. The more fidelity and granularity of a model, the more costly the computational resources needed and the longer the simulation and modeling time. When the priority is to provide quick but reliable assessments of the thermal performance or real time thermal feedback for training of console operators, simplified modeling tools are needed. To satisfy that need, this paper describes the effort to develop and correlate a model of VIPER TMS based on control volume approach. The correlation effort in particular focuses on hibernation, cold thermal balance, and hot thermal balance data from the integrated vehicle thermal vacuum (TVAC) test. Thus, the correlated model captures the heat leaks during hibernations and the performance at two extremes, bounding, operating scenarios.

Thermal Modeling↗
NASA NTRS2026

AC and DC Fault Management for Megawatt Electrified Aircraft Electrical Powertrains Task 3: Lifetime and Reliability of Electrical Insulators

This research project was a collaborative investigation between researchers at the RTX Technology Research Center (RTRC) and the University of Texas at Austin and made a significant contribution to enabling electric aircraft. The transport of electric power between the points of generation and use requires power cables. These cables must be smaller, lighter and provide a more predictable life than power cables used in stationary applications. Consequently, this investigation provided heretofore unavailable information supporting the safety and reliability of smaller lighter power cables for electrified aircraft. In addition, the research identified key additional engineering data needed to support quantitative reliability assessments. Important advances included: • Demonstrated that at least one manufacturer can make a novel, smaller, lighter power cable that is free from serious defects. • Developed and published an appropriate analytical construct to describe the life of this novel cable. This is a necessary step for use in aviation where the understanding of remaining life is critical. • Demonstrated thermal-mechanical aging that suggested 1000+ flights before the thermal-mechanical processes produced defects large enough that the defect growth was accelerated electrically. • Showed that electrical aging took place at two rates. The first possibly lasting weeks to months and the second possibly days to weeks. If robust, this provides a good diagnostic for cable replacement. • Demonstrated that the traditional electrical testing of cable materials using manufactured voids can be misleading due to the size of the voids. Emerging laser drilling technology permitted demonstration that the physics of failure in realistically small voids is different from that in the unrealistically large voids used in earlier research, which is very important for high-quality, high-performance, small aircraft cables. Although this project represents a significant contribution to the specifics of cable aging in the aircraft environment, important additional research remains to be completed, including: • Non-uniform thermal cycling by applying the heat from the center conductor to maximize thermal stress next to the core area where the electric gradient is the strongest. This builds on the uniform thermal cycling that has been completed. • The augmentation of the thermal-mechanical failure rate by electrical processes. Better understanding of these time constants strongly affects the ability to predict life. • Termination design: Terminations provide not only electrical reflection potential, but a location for a series arc fault and an area where ozone can diffuse into the center conductor and negatively affect cable insulation. • The abrasion and ozone resistance of the cable jacket. • Pressure cycling as an accelerant of thermal, mechanical, and/or electrical aging. • Possible methods for online PD detection and offline PD localization

model↗
DOE OSTI2023

Spatio-Temporal Denoising Graph Autoencoders with Data Augmentation for Missing Photovoltaic Data Imputation

The integration of the global Photovoltaic (PV) market with real time data-loggers has enabled large scale PV data analytical pipelines for power forecasting and long-term reliability assessment of PV fleets. Nevertheless, the performance of PV data analysis heavily depends on the quality of PV timeseries data. This paper proposes a novel Spatio-Temporal Denoising Graph Autoencoder (STD-GAE) framework to impute missing PV Power Data. STDGAE exploits temporal correlation, spatial coherence, and value dependencies from domain knowledge to recover missing data. It is empowered by two modules. (1) To cope with sparse yet various scenarios of missing data, STD-GAE incorporates a domain-knowledge aware data augmentation module that creates plausible variations of missing data patterns. This generalizes STD-GAE to robust imputation over different seasons and environment. (2) STD-GAE nontrivially integrates spatiotemporal graph convolution layers (to recover local missing data by observed “neighboring” PV plants) and denoising autoencoder (to recover corrupted data from augmented counterpart) to improve the accuracy of imputation accuracy at PV fleet level. We have evaluated our proposed model on two realworld PV datasets. Experimental results show that STD-GAE can achieve a gain of 43.14% in imputation accuracy and remains less sensitive to missing rate, different seasons, and missing scenarios, compared with state-of-the-art data imputation methods such as MIDA and LRTC-TNN.

Fan, Yangxin↗
DOE OSTI2022

Calibration of a mesoscale tritium transport model for ceramic breeder materials in TMAP8 using experimental data

Due to the scarcity of the long-term external tritium supply, lithium-containing breeder materials are used in the blanket of fusion reactors to produce tritium faster than the deuterium-tritium fusion reaction consumes it. A cellular breeder is a promising material with higher lithium density and thermal conductivity than conventional ceramic pebbles and enhanced tritium extraction with interconnected pores. Although several experimental and modeling efforts have improved our understanding of tritium transport, the exact mechanisms governing tritium release from breeder materials are still unknown. As a result, current models cannot reliably assess the tritium breeding capabilities of cellular breeder materials. This work presents a tritium transport multiphysics model and calibrates it using experimental data of deuterium absorption and desorption from cellular breeder materials at different temperatures and pressures. This model accounts for ceramic and pore diffusion, trapping and detrapping, and several surface reactions at the pore surface. After calibrating the model and performing sensitivity analysis, we discuss pre-dominant mechanisms governing tritium release from cellular breeder materials. The model is part of the Tritium Migration Analysis Program [TMAP8], a multiscale, multiphysics framework for tritium transport based on the finite element multiphysics framework MOOSE. This study demonstrates some of TMAP8’s capabilities and provides insight into the mechanisms governing tritium transport in cellular ceramic breeder materials.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2025

Nondestructive Evaluation of Concrete: Elastic Property Imaging Through Full-Waveform Inversion

Concrete is a vital material in construction—especially in the nuclear industry, where it is used in critical structures such as containment vessels. Over time, concrete can degrade due to harsh operational and environmental conditions, necessitating that its elastic properties be accurately evaluated to ensure structural integrity and safety. Traditional nondestructive evaluation methods such as ultrasound-based techniques often rely on simplifying assumptions that may not hold true for concrete. This paper presents an advanced ultrasound-based method that uses elastic full-waveform inversion (EFWI) to create detailed images of concrete’s mechanical properties. By accurately modeling wave behaviors such as scattering and reflection, we aim to overcome the limitations of conventional ultrasonic-based methods. In this work, the imaging problem involved reconstructing the various elastic properties of a heterogenous concrete block with three steel rebars embedded in it. The ultrasonic measurements were synthetically generated from multiple sources and receivers, and the reconstruction process was performed using a gradient-based optimization algorithm. Our approach leveraged EFWI to reconstruct high-resolution images of the pressure wave speed, shear wave speed, and density. Multiple misfit functions—including L2-norm, cross-correlation (CC), and L1-norm—combined with total variation (TV) regularization and parameter constraints using a Sigmoid function—were explored for the reconstruction. The results demonstrated that using the L1-norm misfit function in conjunction with TV regularization and Sigmoid constraints significantly improved the reconstruction quality in comparison to traditional methods. This approach provided clearer images with fewer artifacts and better captured background heterogeneity. Our findings highlight that, when properly designed, EFWI carries great potential for providing comprehensive, more accurate, and more reliable assessments of concrete conditions, as is crucial for the maintenance and safety of nuclear power plant structures.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS2010

Scaled CMOS Technology Reliability Users Guide

The desire to assess the reliability of emerging scaled microelectronics technologies through faster reliability trials and more accurate acceleration models is the precursor for further research and experimentation in this relevant field. The effect of semiconductor scaling on microelectronics product reliability is an important aspect to the high reliability application user. From the perspective of a customer or user, who in many cases must deal with very limited, if any, manufacturer's reliability data to assess the product for a highly-reliable application, product-level testing is critical in the characterization and reliability assessment of advanced nanometer semiconductor scaling effects on microelectronics reliability. A methodology on how to accomplish this and techniques for deriving the expected product-level reliability on commercial memory products are provided.Competing mechanism theory and the multiple failure mechanism model are applied to the experimental results of scaled SDRAM products. Accelerated stress testing at multiple conditions is applied at the product level of several scaled memory products to assess the performance degradation and product reliability. Acceleration models are derived for each case. For several scaled SDRAM products, retention time degradation is studied and two distinct soft error populations are observed with each technology generation: early breakdown, characterized by randomly distributed weak bits with Weibull slope (beta)=1, and a main population breakdown with an increasing failure rate. Retention time soft error rates are calculated and a multiple failure mechanism acceleration model with parameters is derived for each technology. Defect densities are calculated and reflect a decreasing trend in the percentage of random defective bits for each successive product generation. A normalized soft error failure rate of the memory data retention time in FIT/Gb and FIT/cm2 for several scaled SDRAM generations is presented revealing a power relationship. General models describing the soft error rates across scaled product generations are presented. The analysis methodology may be applied to other scaled microelectronic products and their key parameters.

Microelectronics Reliability↗
DOE OSTI2024

From Data to Knowledge: A Graph-Based Reliability Approach to Assess System Health

With the goal of maximizing plant reliability and availability, complex systems such as nuclear power plants continuously monitor and record the performance and the health status of many components, assets, and systems. Such data may take the form of online monitoring data, condition reports, and maintenance reports and it carries the potential to provide system engineers with insights into anomalous behaviors or degradation trends as well as the possible causes behind them and to predict their direct consequences. The analysis of such data poses however few challenges. While some of these challenges are technical in nature (i.e., data are often distributed over several physical servers or databases), others are conceptual in nature (i.e., data elements come in different formats, numeric or textual), and measured values have different scales (e.g., vibration spectra and oil temperature). This paper directly tackles these challenges, and it focuses on the integration of all these data elements in order to assist plant system engineers in analyzing component, assets, and systems performances and optimize maintenance activities. This is performed by 1) extracting knowledge from textual data via technical language processing methods, and 2) quantifying system, asset, and component health from numeric condition-based data. We rely on model-based system engineering (MBSE) models of systems and assets to identify their architecture and functional (i.e., cause and effect) relations. Numeric and textual data elements are then associated with an MBSE graph element, based on their nature. This bonding of MBSE models and data elements constitutes a first-of-its-kind knowledge graph of a nuclear power plants system, with data elements being organized in a structured manner that enables system engineers to identify cause-effect trends in data elements and carry out appropriate actions in response.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS1997

A Comprehensive Reliability Methodology for Assessing Risk of Reusing Failed Hardware Without Corrective Actions with and Without Redundancy

This paper deals with the development of a reliability methodology to assess the consequences of using hardware, without failure analysis or corrective action, that has previously demonstrated that it did not perform per specification. The subject of this paper arose from the need to provide a detailed probabilistic analysis to calculate the change in probability of failures with respect to the base or non-failed hardware. The methodology used for the analysis is primarily based on principles of Monte Carlo simulation. The random variables in the analysis are: Maximum Time of Operation (MTO) and operation Time of each Unit (OTU) The failure of a unit is considered to happen if (OTU) is less than MTO for the Normal Operational Period (NOP) in which this unit is used. NOP as a whole uses a total of 4 units. Two cases are considered. in the first specialized scenario, the failure of any operation or system failure is considered to happen if any of the units used during the NOP fail. in the second specialized scenario, the failure of any operation or system failure is considered to happen only if any two of the units used during the MOP fail together. The probability of failure of the units and the system as a whole is determined for 3 kinds of systems - Perfect System, Imperfect System 1 and Imperfect System 2. in a Perfect System, the operation time of the failed unit is the same as that of the MTO. In an Imperfect System 1, the operation time of the failed unit is assumed as 1 percent of the MTO. In an Imperfect System 2, the operation time of the failed unit is assumed as zero. in addition, simulated operation time of failed units is assumed as 10 percent of the corresponding units before zero value. Monte Carlo simulation analysis is used for this study. Necessary software has been developed as part of this study to perform the reliability calculations. The results of the analysis showed that the predicted change in failure probability (P(sub F)) for the previously failed units is as high as 49 percent above the baseline (perfect system) for the worst case. The predicted change in system P(sub F) for the previously failed units is as high as 36% for single unit failure without any redundancy. For redundant systems, with dual unit failure, the predicted change in P(sub F) for the previously failed units is as high as 16%. These results will help management to make decisions regarding the consequences of using previously failed units without adequate failure analysis or corrective action.

Putcha, Chandra S.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Operating Experience Data Analysis for Digital Instrumentation and Control System Reliability and Risk Assessment in Nuclear Power Plants

The implementation of advanced digital instrumentation and control (DI&C) systems in U.S. nuclear power plants (NPPs) can bring significant advancements in reliability, monitoring, and control capabilities. However, these systems also introduce new challenges, particularly in assessing risks such as common-cause failures (CCFs) and establishing robust reliability estimates for DI&C components. Addressing these challenges is critical for ensuring the safe and efficient operation of NPPs. Recently, Idaho National Laboratory was tasked by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) to conduct a DI&C reliability study using operating experience data from the nuclear industry. The two operating experience data sources for the study are the Institute of Nuclear Power Operations’ Industry Reporting and Information System (IRIS) and the NRC’s Licensee Event Report database which is hosted at Idaho National Laboratory at https://lersearch.inl.gov/LERSearchCriteria.aspx. This report provides a comprehensive examination of DI&C systems, including their architecture, operational advantages, and associated challenges. It reviews existing industry DI&C studies and failure mode taxonomies, along with reliability data from various industries. Through a detailed analysis of these databases, the study provides insights into DI&C system performance. Considerations should be given to incorporate DI&C failure data into the NRC's Integrated Data Collection and Coding System and updating the Reliability and Availability Data System to support ongoing DI&C reliability studies. Recommendations are also provided for modeling DI&C reliability and CCF in probabilistic risk assessment, thereby supporting risk-informed decision-making and enhancing the reliability and safety of NPPs.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Passive Safety System Reliability Analysis: Lessons Learned and Open Items

Passive safety systems have multiple benefits, largely stemming from their high functional reliability due to their simplicity and lack of dependencies. However, accurately assessing the reliability of passive systems can be challenging due in large part to the possibility of functional failures. Argonne National Laboratory (Argonne) has been involved in several recent efforts concerning the reliability assessment of passive safety systems for advanced, non-light water reactors (non-LWRs). These efforts have focused on the development and application of mechanistic methods for the evaluation of passive system reliability, which rely on system modelling and uncertainty analyses to derive reliability values for use in probabilistic safety assessments (PSAs). Further information on these efforts is provided in ref [1]. The current paper reviews key lessons learned through these projects, along with outstanding open items regarding the reliability assessment of passive systems.

Grabaskas, David↗
NASA NTRS2021

Reliability and Safety Assessment of Urban Air Mobility Concept Vehicles

The following work was commissioned by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) to guide industry and future regulation related to urban air mobility (UAM). Prior studies compared the relative safety of NASA concept vehicles, Figure ES1, designed for UAM and provided recommendations for industry research, aircraft architectural improvements, and regulatory updates. After the prior study completed, the European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) released regulatory guidance in the form of a special condition (SC), SC-VTOL-01, for multirotors with distributed propulsion and flight controls (DPFC). The objective of the current work was to develop DPFC architectures that will comply with SC-VTOL-01. Vehicle designs, DPFC architectures, and stability & control (S&C) models were developed to find limitations and trends to guide industry. To guide this task, NASA developed quad, hex, and an octorotor to better define vehicle attributes and trade space. Aircraft for study included electric, hybrid-electric, and turboshaft powerplants and collective and RPM control schemes. Assessments are in terms of the safety level achieved, and/or aircraft component/features needed to meet SC-VTOL-01. The most challenging criteria being the catastrophic failure rate, ≤10-9 catastrophic failures per flight hour, and that no single failures may result in a catastrophic event. A disciplined process was followed, similar to that in Aerospace Recommended Practice (ARP) 4761. A preliminary system safety assessment (PSSA) leveraged prior work as a basis of creating failure rate budgets for system design teams. System designs were updated and iterated upon, working with reliability and safety subject matter experts to develop SC-VTOL-01 compliant designs. Design changes were reflected in updated PSSAs for initial verification of compliance. The DPFC architecture was broken into four system design teams, the (1) flight control system (FCS), (2) drive and power system, (3) thermal management system (TMS), and (4) electrical power and distribution system. The FCS including elements necessary to control the aircraft, drive and power including elements necessary to generate and transmit shaft power, the TMS including elements necessary to maintain temperature limits in all operating environments, and electrical pow-er and distribution including equipment necessary to store and transmit electrical energy. Results found that all aircraft evaluated may have paths to comply with SC-VTOL-01, Figure ES2. However, S&C models showed large power transients that must be addressed and PSSA results show that future work is needed in single load path structures, high voltage power storage and distribution, and in motor/rotor overspeed protection.

Boeing↗
NASA NTRS2004

Reliability-Based Life Assessment of Stirling Convertor Heater Head

Onboard radioisotope power systems being developed and planned for NASA's deep-space missions require reliable design lifetimes of up to 14 yr. The structurally critical heater head of the high-efficiency Stirling power convertor has undergone extensive computational analysis of operating temperatures, stresses, and creep resistance of the thin-walled Inconel 718 bill of material. A preliminary assessment of the effect of uncertainties in the material behavior was also performed. Creep failure resistance of the thin-walled heater head could show variation due to small deviations in the manufactured thickness and in uncertainties in operating temperature and pressure. Durability prediction and reliability of the heater head are affected by these deviations from nominal design conditions. Therefore, it is important to include the effects of these uncertainties in predicting the probability of survival of the heater head under mission loads. Furthermore, it may be possible for the heater head to experience rare incidences of small temperature excursions of short duration. These rare incidences would affect the creep strain rate and, therefore, the life. This paper addresses the effects of such rare incidences on the reliability. In addition, the sensitivities of variables affecting the reliability are quantified, and guidelines developed to improve the reliability are outlined. Heater head reliability is being quantified with data from NASA Glenn Research Center's accelerated benchmark testing program.

Shah, Ashwin R.↗