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At least 307 records · Page 17

Phased-mission system analysis using Boolean algebraic methods

Most reliability analysis techniques and tools assume that a system is used for a mission consisting of a single phase. However, multiple phases are natural in many missions. The failure rates of components, system configuration, and success criteria may vary from phase to phase. In addition, the duration of a phase may be deterministic or random. Recently, several researchers have addressed the problem of reliability analysis of such systems using a variety of methods. A new technique for phased-mission system reliability analysis based on Boolean algebraic methods is described. Our technique is computationally efficient and is applicable to a large class of systems for which the failure criterion in each phase can be expressed as a fault tree (or an equivalent representation). Our technique avoids state space explosion that commonly plague Markov chain-based analysis. A phase algebra to account for the effects of variable configurations and success criteria from phase to phase was developed. Our technique yields exact (as opposed to approximate) results. The use of our technique was demonstrated by means of an example and present numerical results to show the effects of mission phases on the system reliability.

Somani, Arun K.↗

GPU Lifetimes on Titan Supercomputer: Survival Analysis and Reliability

George Ostrouchov, Don Maxwell, Rizwan Ashraf, Mallikarjun Shankar, and James Rogers. 2020. GPU Lifetimes on Titan Supercomputer: Survival Analysis and Reliability. In Proceedings of the International Conference for High Performance Computing, Networking, Storage and Analysis (SC '20). Association for Computing Machinery, New York, NY, USA. Data and code for SC20 paper about Titan GPU reliability analysis: https://github.com/olcf/TitanGPULife. Includes R code to generate graphics for paper and additional analyses. See code/README for instructions. Includes original Titan GPU reliability data on over 100,000 collective hours of operation: data/titan.gpu.history.txt - history data, data/titan.service.txt - service nodes for exclusion. Includes output data files produced by code/TitanGPUmodel.Rmd: data/gc_full.csv - cleaned up data (see paper and R code); data/gc_summary_loc.csv - one record per GPU (variables: SN, time, nlife, nloc, last, col, row, cage, slot, node, max_loc_events, time_max_loc, dbe, dbe_loc, otb, otb_loc, out, batch, days, years, dead, dead_otb, dead_dbe) (see paper and R code). Includes .Rmd analysis document as TitanGPUmode.html. Includes Python code to process data/gc_full.csv into graphics from time-between-failure analyses: See code/tbf-analyses/README for instructions.

42 ENGINEERING↗

On Component Reliability and System Reliability for Space Missions

This paper is to address the basics, the limitations and the relationship between component reliability and system reliability through a study of flight computing architectures and related avionics components for NASA future missions. Component reliability analysis and system reliability analysis need to be evaluated at the same time, and the limitations of each analysis and the relationship between the two analyses need to be understood.

Chen, Yuan↗

CARES/LIFE Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures Life Prediction Program

This manual describes the Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures Life Prediction (CARES/LIFE) computer program. The program calculates the time-dependent reliability of monolithic ceramic components subjected to thermomechanical and/or proof test loading. CARES/LIFE is an extension of the CARES (Ceramic Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures) computer program. The program uses results from MSC/NASTRAN, ABAQUS, and ANSYS finite element analysis programs to evaluate component reliability due to inherent surface and/or volume type flaws. CARES/LIFE accounts for the phenomenon of subcritical crack growth (SCG) by utilizing the power law, Paris law, or Walker law. The two-parameter Weibull cumulative distribution function is used to characterize the variation in component strength. The effects of multiaxial stresses are modeled by using either the principle of independent action (PIA), the Weibull normal stress averaging method (NSA), or the Batdorf theory. Inert strength and fatigue parameters are estimated from rupture strength data of naturally flawed specimens loaded in static, dynamic, or cyclic fatigue. The probabilistic time-dependent theories used in CARES/LIFE, along with the input and output for CARES/LIFE, are described. Example problems to demonstrate various features of the program are also included.

Nemeth, Noel N.↗

SCREAM: Space-based Cognitive Reliability Error Analysis Method

Given both ground-based performance shaping factors (PSFs) collected by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) and potential space-based PSFs collected by JSC's HH&P, this year's task is to determine how to combine them for future human reliability analysis (HRA) of space missions. All HRA to date for space missions have been based on ground data (i.e. 1-G environment). There is no space-based HRA approach. The target of this project to produce a "first of its kind" HRA approach for space missions. As humans go beyond Earth orbit and missions become longer, human performance and reliability is expected to degrade. The questions become by how much, when, and what, leading to defining the overall effect on crew risk. Knowing this information earlier rather than later will help us mitigate this risk by vehicle design, crew training, and operational workarounds.

Boyer, Roger L.↗

Software For Analysis Of Reliability, Redundancy, And Cost

CARRAC is software tool for combined analysis of reliability, redundancy, and cost of alternative choices of subsystem that is part of larger system. Uses various parameters entered from computer keyboard to determine subsystem and redundancy method (if any) that minimizes cost. Also, calculation selected from five different mathematical models that enable application of CARRAC to wide variety of cases. Uses parameters to calculate and compare total expected cost for alternatives of a chosen subsystem. Written in Microsoft Quick-Basic v4.5.

Patterson, R. L.↗

Determination of a Generic Human Error Probability Distribution, Part 2: A Dynamic SPAR-H Example Application

Humans are an integral part of a nuclear power plant (NPP) from its construction, to its everyday maintenance and operation. In the nuclear industry there are many approaches to quantifying component reliability, which is called probability risk assessment (PRA). In PRA there are two considerations given to the quantification, static and dynamic. Static is quantified before or after an operation; and dynamic is time dependent, in that the probability changes as real time data are provided. In PRA, the importance of the components is calculated, but what of the importance of the human component? There are several methods for human reliability analysis (HRA), which include but are not limited to: THERP, ATHEANA, CREAM, SPAR-H, ASEP, and SLIM. Each of these methods aims to provide a more accurate and objective human error probability (HEP) quantification. Of the methods listed above, ASEP, THERP, and SPAR-H are all inextricably linked. The Standardized Plant Analysis Risk-Human Reliability Analysis (SPAR-H) method was generated to better generalize the Technique for Human Error Rate Prediction (THERP) and Accident Sequence Precursor (ASEP). THERP is mapped to specific scenario templates, and ASEP is a simplified screening method, while SPAR-H employs generalizations to describe the spectrum of human behavior while maintaining the same theoretical underpinnings. SPAR-H is a well-known and accepted HRA method that uses performance shaping factors (PSFs) to classify inputs to the human component. PSFs capture a wide variety of input data, including plant status, crew dynamics, task description, and psychological aspects of the human operator. Current efforts have been focused to further generalize SPAR-H in to a dynamic framework. These methods can fit into dynamic NPP simulations such as RAVEN / RELAP-7. In order to do this, a dynamic methodology is applied to model the human as would be applied to the components. This method is applied in part one in the accompanying paper.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures (CARES). Users and programmers manual

This manual describes how to use the Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures (CARES) computer program. The primary function of the code is to calculate the fast fracture reliability or failure probability of macroscopically isotropic ceramic components. These components may be subjected to complex thermomechanical loadings, such as those found in heat engine applications. The program uses results from MSC/NASTRAN or ANSYS finite element analysis programs to evaluate component reliability due to inherent surface and/or volume type flaws. CARES utilizes the Batdorf model and the two-parameter Weibull cumulative distribution function to describe the effect of multiaxial stress states on material strength. The principle of independent action (PIA) and the Weibull normal stress averaging models are also included. Weibull material strength parameters, the Batdorf crack density coefficient, and other related statistical quantities are estimated from four-point bend bar or unifrom uniaxial tensile specimen fracture strength data. Parameter estimation can be performed for single or multiple failure modes by using the least-square analysis or the maximum likelihood method. Kolmogorov-Smirnov and Anderson-Darling goodness-of-fit tests, ninety percent confidence intervals on the Weibull parameters, and Kanofsky-Srinivasan ninety percent confidence band values are also provided. The probabilistic fast-fracture theories used in CARES, along with the input and output for CARES, are described. Example problems to demonstrate various feature of the program are also included. This manual describes the MSC/NASTRAN version of the CARES program.

Nemeth, Noel N.↗

Solutions for Enhanced Legacy Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tools and Methodologies: Improving Efficiency of Model Development and Processing via Innovative Human Reliability Dependency Analysis

Probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) are integral to nuclear power plant (NPP) operations, having tremendously benefitted the safety of the U.S. reactor fleet for decades. Insights obtained from the models have provided perspectives on a variety of applications, both at the plant and for the regulator. While these models are very useful, they are now being asked to represent and analyze aspects of the plant that were never envisioned by the initial PRA practitioners. Furthermore, heightened demands on the PRA models have led to increased computing power requirements. Additionally, as the complexity of the PRA models increased, the difficulty experienced by non-PRA experts in trying to understand these models, grasp the insights they provide, and effectively use that information has become problematic. The need for research to address key issues regarding PRA tools and methods has never been greater. Although the nuclear power industry has largely been well-served by these tools and methods, the underlying science is dated, remaining mostly unchanged for over two decades. Three areas were identified as most beneficial to address to maintain and improve the usefulness of the current practice legacy PRA tools: improved quantification speed, increased ability to efficiently model multi-hazard models, and improved modeling human action dependency in PRA. This report is focused on the third critical area, improvements in dependency analysis of human actions conducted as part of a typical human reliability assessment.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Robustness Analysis and Reliable Flight Regime Estimation of an Integrated Resilent Control System for a Transport Aircraft

Formal robustness analysis of aircraft control upset prevention and recovery systems could play an important role in their validation and ultimate certification. As a part of the validation process, this paper describes an analysis method for determining a reliable flight regime in the flight envelope within which an integrated resilent control system can achieve the desired performance of tracking command signals and detecting additive faults in the presence of parameter uncertainty and unmodeled dynamics. To calculate a reliable flight regime, a structured singular value analysis method is applied to analyze the closed-loop system over the entire flight envelope. To use the structured singular value analysis method, a linear fractional transform (LFT) model of a transport aircraft longitudinal dynamics is developed over the flight envelope by using a preliminary LFT modeling software tool developed at the NASA Langley Research Center, which utilizes a matrix-based computational approach. The developed LFT model can capture original nonlinear dynamics over the flight envelope with the ! block which contains key varying parameters: angle of attack and velocity, and real parameter uncertainty: aerodynamic coefficient uncertainty and moment of inertia uncertainty. Using the developed LFT model and a formal robustness analysis method, a reliable flight regime is calculated for a transport aircraft closed-loop system.

Shin, Jong-Yeob↗

Composite Power System Reliability with Renewables and Customer Flexibility

Composite Power System Reliability is defined as the computational procedure that quantifies the probability that the power system will perform the function of delivering electric power to customers adequately, on a continuous basis and with an acceptable quality. This definition leaves many details undefined and exemplifies the ambiguity in reliability analysis. The increasing deployment of wind and PV creates additional uncertainties that make reliability analysis a rather complex issue. Because of increased uncertainty the need for composite reliability analysis and utilization of results in power system planning is critical. New approaches are emerging for dealing with these problems from the operational point of view, including demand response programs, tapping on customer and distributed resource flexibility and new control approaches. The key question to be addressed is: how the new operational paradigms affect composite power system reliability. Here, this paper presents the ongoing work of the IEEE Composite System Reliability Task Force of the IEEE PES Reliability, Risk, Probability Application (RRPA) Subcommittee.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Advanced Power Electronics and Electric Machines

The advanced power electronics and electric machines (APEEM) research group at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) has developed world-class experimental and modeling capabilities for designing and evaluating efficient and reliable power electronics and electric machines thermal management systems. They also design, fabricate and characterize advanced power electronics packaging, and are developing state-of-health monitoring techniques. These researchers deliver safe, reliable, high performing, power-dense components that allow seamless integration between renewable energy sources, electric transportation, and the grid, helping to make widespread electric vehicle (EV) adoption and greenhouse gas emissions reduction more feasible. This document outlines the group's major capabilities in the areas of power electronics; module development and characterization; thermal modeling and management; thermomechanical reliability analysis of devices, modules, inverters/converters, and electric machines; physics-of-failure-based reliability analysis; and microelectronics. It also overviews the group's state-of-the-art equipment for fluid-based thermal management; thermal measurement & characterization; thermomechanical reliability analysis; micro- and power electronics measurement & characterization; and prototype fabrication, as well as the group's world-class modeling and simulation capabilities.

advanced gate drivers↗

Transverse mode analysis for free-space laser beams using Bayesian analysis

Reliable and rapid assessment of the transverse mode quality of a free-space laser beam has a wide range of applications in laser development, research, and utilization. It has become even more important with recent advances in developing orbital angular momentum photon beams across a broad spectral region. In this work, a general modal analysis method for a free-space multimode laser beam has been developed based on Bayesian analysis. After transforming mode decomposition into a linear system problem, a Gaussian probabilistic model is used to find a closed-form solution. The method is found to be robust with the presence of Gaussian noise. Prior knowledge about the mode content can be incorporated into the method to improve the solution for situations when coherent disturbances or contamination are present in the laser beam. This method can be used to analyze the mode content for laser beams in different bases, such as Hermite–Gaussian (HG) modes and Laguerre–Gaussian (LG) modes. Three applications of this method are presented: a detailed modal analysis of the beam image from the incoherent intensity addition of HG modes and two examples of mode decomposition using the complex wavefront from the coherent superposition of HG and LG modes. The feasibility of this method is demonstrated using various simulation results. Based on digital images of a laser beam recorded without complex wavelength-limiting optics, in principle, this method can be used in a wide wavelength range from infrared to ultraviolet, and possibly x ray.

Liu, Peifan (ORCID:0000000273816153)↗

Fault Detection via Occupation Kernel Principal Component Analysis

Reliable operation of automatic systems is heavily dependent on the ability to detect faults in the underlying dynamics. While traditional model-based methods have been widely used for fault detection, data-driven approaches have garnered increasing attention due to their ease of deployment and minimal need for expert knowledge. In this letter, we present a novel principal component analysis (PCA) method that uses occupation kernels. Occupation kernels result in feature maps that are tailored to the measured data, have inherent noise-robustness due to the use of integration, and can utilize irregularly sampled system trajectories of variable lengths for PCA. The occupation kernel PCA method is used to develop a reconstruction error approach to fault detection and its efficacy is validated using numerical simulations.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Design and implementation of HuREX analysis supporting interface - 171

Human error is recognized as one of the main causes to affect to the socio-technical system including nuclear power plant. Therefore, reducing human error through human reliability analysis (HRA) is a critical issue. Moreover, sufficient and reliable human performance data collection is a prerequisite for ensuring the safety of nuclear power plants. Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute developed the HuREX (Human Reliability data Extraction) framework to collect and analyze the responses of human operators from simulator training records of nuclear power plant. Thus, the development and computer software interfaces of the database are essential to efficiently support human reliability analysis. In this study, OPERA database was developed in accordance with the following process. First, the essential data required for the HRA analysis (e.g., plant data, procedures, system and equipment info, operating crews, results of simulator experiments, and so forth) was stored in the database. In addition, standardized procedures and related items were stored in the database to support HRA quantification. A data structure was developed to store crew responses conducted by operators to cope with an emergency situation during simulator experiments. In addition, various interfaces that escalate efficiency of the HuREX applications were developed. The HuREX analysis support interface was developed with HuREX Video Analyzer for observation of simulator collection data (e.g., audio-visual records, plant parameters, operator's action logs) and HuREX Data Analyzer for analysis of operator's conducted task. By using the OPERA database and HuREX analysis support interface developed through this research, maximizing the efficiency of human reliability analysis based on simulator training data. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Easy, Fast, and Reproducible Quantification of Cholesterol and Other Lipids in Human Plasma by Combined High Resolution MSX and FTMS Analysis

Reliable, cost-effective, and gold-standard absolute quantification of non-esterified cholesterol in human plasma is of paramount importance in clinical lipidomics and for the monitoring of metabolic health. Here, we compared the performance of three mass spectrometric approaches available for direct detection and quantification of cholesterol in extracts of human plasma. These approaches are high resolution full scan Fourier transform mass spectrometry (FTMS) analysis, parallel reaction monitoring (PRM), and novel multiplexed MS/MS (MSX) technology, where fragments from selected precursor ions are detected simultaneously. Evaluating the performance of these approaches in terms of dynamic quantification range, linearity, and analytical precision showed that the MSX-based approach is superior to that of the FTMS and PRM-based approaches. To further show the efficacy of this approach, we devised a simple routine for extensive plasma lipidome characterization using only 8 μL of plasma, using a new commercially available ready-to-spike-in mixture with 14 synthetic lipid standards, and executing a single 6 min sample injection with combined MSX analysis for cholesterol quantification and FTMS analysis for quantification of sterol esters, glycerolipids, glycerophospholipids, and sphingolipids. Using this simple routine afforded reproducible and absolute quantification of 200 lipid species encompassing 13 lipid classes in human plasma samples. Notably, the analysis time of this procedure can be shortened for high throughput-oriented clinical lipidomics studies or extended with more advanced MS{sup ALL} technology (Almeida R. et al., J. Am. Soc. Mass Spectrom. 26, 133–148 [1]) to support in-depth structural elucidation of lipid molecules. .

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Simulator Data Analysis to Inform Digitalized Environment Impacts on Human Reliability

The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) has developed a human reliability analysis (HRA) method, termed the Integrated Human Event Analysis System for Event and Condition Assessment (IDHEAS-ECA), in order to estimate human error probabilities (HEPs) in risk-informed regulatory applications. To update the quantification part of IDHEAS-ECA, the NRC required human performance and error data from fully digitalized main control rooms (MCRs); therefore, it requested that Idaho National Laboratory (INL) revisit previous data collection studies and investigate how the following three factors impact human reliability: self-checking, peer-checking, and automation. The HRA data collection studies revisited were the Human Reliability Data Extraction (HuREX) project, developed by the Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI), and the Simplified Human Error Experimental Program (SHEEP), developed by INL. HuREX is a representative HRA data collection study that collects human reliability data from full-scope simulators staffed by licensed operators. SHEEP, on the other hand, has been proposed to complement such full-scope studies by collecting data via simplified simulators staffed by non-licensed student operators. In the HuREX study, KAERI collected HRA data from fully digitalized MCRs for the Advanced Power Reactor (APR)–1400. The SHEEP data were obtained from simplified simulators that partially mimicked the features of digitalized MCRs. The present report mainly discusses how the impacts of the aforementioned three factors on human errors were derived from these two data collection studies.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗