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At least 307 records · Page 17

Bayesian Research at the NASA Ames Research Center,Computational Sciences Division

NASA Ames Research Center is one of NASA s oldest centers, having started out as part of the National Advisory Committee on Aeronautics, (NACA). The site, about 40 miles south of San Francisco, still houses many wind tunnels and other aviation related departments. In recent years, with the growing realization that space exploration is heavily dependent on computing and data analysis, its focus has turned more towards Information Technology. The Computational Sciences Division has expanded rapidly as a result. In this article, I will give a brief overview of some of the past and present projects with a Bayesian content. Much more than is described here goes on with the Division. The web pages at http://ic.arc. nasa.gov give more information on these, and the other Division projects.

Morris, Robin D.↗

From Informal Safety-Critical Requirements to Property-Driven Formal Validation

Most of the efforts in formal methods have historically been devoted to comparing a design against a set of requirements. The validation of the requirements themselves, however, has often been disregarded, and it can be considered a largely open problem, which poses several challenges. The first challenge is given by the fact that requirements are often written in natural language, and may thus contain a high degree of ambiguity. Despite the progresses in Natural Language Processing techniques, the task of understanding a set of requirements cannot be automatized, and must be carried out by domain experts, who are typically not familiar with formal languages. Furthermore, in order to retain a direct connection with the informal requirements, the formalization cannot follow standard model-based approaches. The second challenge lies in the formal validation of requirements. On one hand, it is not even clear which are the correctness criteria or the high-level properties that the requirements must fulfill. On the other hand, the expressivity of the language used in the formalization may go beyond the theoretical and/or practical capacity of state-of-the-art formal verification. In order to solve these issues, we propose a new methodology that comprises of a chain of steps, each supported by a specific tool. The main steps are the following. First, the informal requirements are split into basic fragments, which are classified into categories, and dependency and generalization relationships among them are identified. Second, the fragments are modeled using a visual language such as UML. The UML diagrams are both syntactically restricted (in order to guarantee a formal semantics), and enriched with a highly controlled natural language (to allow for modeling static and temporal constraints). Third, an automatic formal analysis phase iterates over the modeled requirements, by combining several, complementary techniques: checking consistency; verifying whether the requirements entail some desirable properties; verify whether the requirements are consistent with selected scenarios; diagnosing inconsistencies by identifying inconsistent cores; identifying vacuous requirements; constructing multiple explanations by enabling the fault-tree analysis related to particular fault models; verifying whether the specification is realizable.

Cimatti, Alessandro↗

A National Disposal Facility for Radioactive Waste for Iraq - 16610

Radioactive waste resulted in the past in Iraq from a number of nuclear activities and facilities all of them seriously damaged or destroyed during the Gulf war. The task of decommissioning such facilities and managing the resulting waste is being supported by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the European Union (EU), and the United States (US). A national policy for radioactive waste management for Iraq has been drafted by the Ministry of Science and Technology (MoST); a draft strategy for radioactive waste management implementation is in preparation. In this framework, Iraq is considering locating a radioactive waste disposal facility at the Al-Tuwaitha site, near the capital city of Bagdad. In the framework of its Instrument for Nuclear Safety Cooperation the EU has recently started a cooperation project named 'Feasibility Study, Basic Design, and Engineering Design of an Engineered Radioactive Waste Disposal Facility' for Iraq (Project IQ4.01/11). The project aims at producing the design of a repository for the radioactive waste resulting from the decommissioning activities and from the continuing use of radioisotopes in medicine and the oil and gas industry in the country. The contract for this cooperation project was awarded by the European Commission in April 2015 to the consortium of two international engineering companies, Nukem Technologies Engineering Services GmbH and DBE Technology GmbH, both of Germany, and Javys a.s., the national waste management agency of Slovakia. The planned Iraqi near-surface repository is constrained by the complex security conditions in the country. This has led to the decision of using whenever possible the Al-Tuwaitha site, were most of the waste is located, as the repository location. The project work will therefore focus on assessing whether and which part of the waste expected to result from the decommissioning and remediation activities is amenable for surface disposal in an appropriately engineered facility. In addition, careful review of the site characteristics shall provide enough elements to justify and validate the political decision of disposing of the waste in Al Tuwaitha. Thereafter, the project work will focus on the conceptual and later the engineering design of the repository. Finally, a Safety Analysis will provide the basis for regulatory decisions about the further steps for realization of the Iraqi final disposal facility. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Jim Starnes' Contributions to Residual Strength Analysis Methods for Metallic Structures

A summary of advances in residual strength analyses methods for metallic structures that were realized under the leadership of Dr. James H. Starnes, Jr., is presented. The majority of research led by Dr. Starnes in this area was conducted in the 1990's under the NASA Airframe Structural Integrity Program (NASIP). Dr. Starnes, respectfully referred to herein as Jim, had a passion for studying complex response phenomena and dedicated a significant amount of research effort toward advancing damage tolerance and residual strength analysis methods for metallic structures. Jim's efforts were focused on understanding damage propagation in built-up fuselage structure with widespread fatigue damage, with the goal of ensuring safety in the aging international commercial transport fleet. Jim's major contributions in this research area were in identifying the effects of combined internal pressure and mechanical loads, and geometric nonlinearity, on the response of built-up structures with damage. Analytical and experimental technical results are presented to demonstrate the breadth and rigor of the research conducted in this technical area. Technical results presented herein are drawn exclusively from papers where Jim was a co-author.

Young, Richard D.↗

Large space structures ground and flight progress

Unprecedented challenges arise in connection with the design and certification of space systems which are too large to be transported into orbit fully assembled. Special situations arising in the case of such systems make it necessary to rely much more on analysis than in past programs. The present investigation is concerned with the status of some research activities oriented primarily to the improvement of analysis capabilities through coordinated ground and flight testing. Aspects of system identification are explored, taking into account an eigensystem realization algorithm, and the Hoop-Column Antenna concept. Attention is also given to a suitable method for analyzing the Hoop-Column antenna structure, a deployment analysis, certification issues for large space structures, a generic space station model, and the use of actuators.

Pinson, L. D.↗

Snowmass2021 Cosmic Frontier CF6 White Paper: Multi-Experiment Probes for Dark Energy - Transients

This invited Snowmass 2021 White Paper highlights the power of joint-analysis of astronomical transients in advancing HEP Science and presents research activities that can realize the opportunities that come with current and upcoming projects. Transients of interest include gravitational wave events, neutrino events, strongly-lensed quasars and supernovae, and Type~Ia supernovae specifically. These transients can serve as probes of cosmological distances in the Universe and as cosmic laboratories of extreme strong-gravity, high-energy physics. Joint analysis refers to work that requires significant coordination from multiple experiments or facilities so encompasses Multi-Messenger Astronomy and optical transient discovery and distributed follow-up programs.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Hazards Induced by Breach of Liquid Rocket Fuel Tanks: Conditions and Risks of Cryogenic Liquid Hydrogen-Oxygen Mixture Explosions

We analyze the data of purposeful rupture experiments with LOx and LH2 tanks, the Hydrogen-Oxygen Vertical Impact (HOVI) tests that were performed to clarify the ignition mechanisms, the explosive power of cryogenic H2/Ox mixtures under different conditions, and to elucidate the puzzling source of the initial formation of flames near the intertank section during the Challenger disaster. We carry out a physics-based analysis of general explosions scenarios for cryogenic gaseous H2/Ox mixtures and determine their realizability conditions, using the well-established simplified models from the detonation and deflagration theory. We study the features of aerosol H2/Ox mixture combustion and show, in particular, that aerosols intensify the deflagration flames and can induce detonation for any ignition mechanism. We propose a cavitation-induced mechanism of self-ignition of cryogenic H2/Ox mixtures that may be realized when gaseous H2 and Ox flows are mixed with a liquid Ox turbulent stream, as occurred in all HOVI tests. We present an overview of the HOVI tests to make conclusion on the risk of strong explosions in possible liquid rocket incidents and provide a semi-quantitative interpretation of the HOVI data based on aerosol combustion. We uncover the most dangerous situations and discuss the foreseeable risks which can arise in space missions and lead to tragic outcomes. Our analysis relates to only unconfined mixtures that are likely to arise as a result of liquid propellant space vehicle incidents.

Osipov, Viatcheslav↗

Enhanced Performance Assessment Models for Generic Deep Geologic Repositories for High-Level Waste and Spent Nuclear Fuel - 16223

Development of an enhanced performance assessment (PA) capability for geologic disposal of spent nuclear fuel and high-level waste has been ongoing for several years in the U.S. repository program. The new Generic Disposal System Analysis (GDSA) modeling and software framework is intended to be flexible enough to evolve through the various phases of repository activities, beginning with generic PA activities in the current Concept Evaluation phase to site-specific PA modeling in the Repository Development phase. The GDSA Framework utilizes modern software and hardware capabilities by being based on open-source software architecture and being configured to run in a massively parallel, high-performance computing (HPC) environment. It consists of two main components, the open-source Dakota uncertainty sampling and analysis software and the PFLOTRAN reactive multi-phase flow and transport simulator. Reference cases or 'generic repositories' have been, and are being developed, based on typical properties for potential salt, clay, and granite host-rock formations and corresponding engineered design concepts for each medium. Past simulations have focused on a generic repository in bedded-salt host rock, while the most recent research has focused on a reference case for a typical clay/shale host rock. A variety of single-realization (i.e., deterministic) and multi-realization (probabilistic) results for the new clay reference case are presented, including an analysis of the effects of heat generation on repository performance, assuming a 100-year out-of-reactor commercial SNF waste form. Order-of-magnitude differences between predicted radionuclide concentrations in thermal versus isothermal simulations imply that mechanistic, coupled-process modeling in three-dimensional (3-D) domains can be important for building confidence in post-closure performance assessments. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Design and true Reynolds number 2-D testing of an advanced technology airfoil

A NASA-industry program has been conducted to determine the accuracy of available 2-D airfoil analysis procedures over a wide range of Reynolds numbers. The program also served to develop and demonstrate effective wind tunnel model designs for use in a cryogenic environment. A Lockheed design, CRYO 12X, supercritical, shockfree airfoil was configured using a continuous curvature analytical definition of the ordinates. Test results show a very close ordinate tolerance was necessary to realize the intended pressure distribution. Correlation of test with Korn-Garabedian 2-D analysis pressure data were generally good. GRUMFOIL analysis with a sidewall correction gave a better correlation.

Reaser, J. S.↗

A fast determination method for transverse relaxation of spin-exchange-relaxation-free magnetometer

We propose a fast and accurate determination method for transverse relaxation of the spin-exchange-relaxation-free (SERF) magnetometer. This method is based on the measurement of magnetic resonance linewidth via a chirped magnetic field excitation and the amplitude spectrum analysis. Compared with the frequency sweeping via separate sinusoidal excitation, our method can realize linewidth determination within only few seconds and meanwhile obtain good frequency resolution. Therefore, it can avoid the drift error in long term measurement and improve the accuracy of the determination. As the magnetic resonance frequency of the SERF magnetometer is very low, we include the effect of the negative resonance frequency caused by the chirp and achieve the coefficient of determination of the fitting results better than 0.998 with 95% confidence bounds to the theoretical equation. The experimental results are in good agreement with our theoretical analysis.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Large eddy simulation of a turbulent non-reacting spray jet

We performed Large Eddy Simulation (LES) of a turbulent non-reacting n-Heptane spray jet, referred to as Spray H in the Engine Combustion Network (ECN), and executed a data analysis focused on key LES metrics such as fraction of resolved turbulent kinetic energy and similarity index. In the simulation, we used the dynamic structure model for the sub-grid stress, and the Lagrangian-based spray-parcel models coupled with the blob-injection model. The finest mesh-cell size used was characterized by an Adaptive Mesh Refinement (AMR) cell size of 0.0625 mm. To obtain ensemble statistics, we performed 28 numerical realizations of the simulation. Demonstrated by the comparison with experimental data in a previous study [7], this LES has accurately predicted global quantities, such as liquid and vapor penetrations. The analysis in this work shows that 14 realizations of LES are sufficient to provide a reasonable representation of the average flow behavior that is benchmarked against the 28-realization ensemble. With the current mesh, numerical schemes, and sub-grid scale turbulence model, more than 95% of the turbulent kinetic energy is directly resolved in the flow regions of interest. The large-scale flow structures inferred from a statistical analysis reveal a region of disorganized flow around the peripheral region of the spray jet, which appears to be linked to the entrainment process.

Hu, Bing↗

Dark Energy Survey Year 6 results: Clustering redshifts and importance sampling of self-organized-maps 𝑛⁡(𝑧) realizations for 3 × 2 ⁢pt samples

This work is part of a series establishing the redshift framework for the 3 × 2 ⁢pt analysis of the Dark Energy Survey Year 6 (DES Y6). For DES Y6, photometric redshift distributions are estimated using self-organizing maps (SOMs), calibrated with spectroscopic and many-band photometric data. To overcome limitations from color-redshift degeneracies and incomplete spectroscopic coverage, we enhance this approach by incorporating clustering-based redshift constraints (clustering-z, or WZ) from angular cross-correlations with BOSS and eBOSS galaxies and eBOSS quasar samples. We define a WZ likelihood and apply importance sampling to a large ensemble of SOM-derived 𝑛⁡(𝑧) realizations, selecting those consistent with the clustering measurements to produce a posterior sample for each lens and source bin. The analysis uses angular scales corresponding to 1.5–5 Mpc to optimize signal-to-noise ratio while mitigating modeling uncertainties and marginalizes over redshift-dependent galaxy bias and other systematics informed by the N-body simulation CARDINAL . While a sparser spectroscopic reference sample limits WZ constraining power at 𝑧 >1.1, particularly for source bins, we demonstrate that combining SOM with WZ improves redshift accuracy and enhances the overall cosmological constraining power of DES Y6. As a result, we estimate an improvement in 𝑆 8 of approximately 10% for cosmic shear and 3 ×2⁢pt analysis, primarily due to the WZ calibration of the source samples.

Cosmological parameters↗

Bayesian analysis of the dynamic cosmic web in the SDSS galaxy survey

Recent application of the Bayesian algorithm \textsc(borg) to the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) main sample galaxies resulted in the physical inference of the formation history of the observed large-scale structure from its origin to the present epoch. In this work, we use these inferences as inputs for a detailed probabilistic cosmic web-type analysis. To do so, we generate a large set of data-constrained realizations of the large-scale structure using a fast, fully non-linear gravitational model. We then perform a dynamic classification of the cosmic web into four distinct components (voids, sheets, filaments, and clusters) on the basis of the tidal field. Our inference framework automatically and self-consistently propagates typical observational uncertainties to web-type classification. As a result, this study produces accurate cosmographic classification of large-scale structure elements in the SDSS volume. By also providing the history of these structure maps, the approach allows an analysis of the origin and growth of the early traces of the cosmic web present in the initial density field and of the evolution of global quantities such as the volume and mass filling fractions of different structures. For the problem of web-type classification, the results described in this work constitute the first connection between theory and observations at non-linear scales including a physical model of structure formation and the demonstrated capability of uncertainty quantification. A connection between cosmology and information theory using real data also naturally emerges from our probabilistic approach. Our results constitute quantitative chrono-cosmography of the complex web-like patterns underlying the observed galaxy distribution.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

LES of Vaporizing Gasoline Sprays Considering Multi-Injection Averaging and Grid-Convergent Mesh Resolution

A state-of-the-art spray modeling methodology, recently presented by Senecal et al. [ , , ], is applied to Large Eddy Simulations (LES) of vaporizing gasoline sprays. Simulations of non-combusting Spray G (gasoline fuel) from the Engine Combustion Network are performed. Adaptive mesh refinement (AMR) with cell sizes from 0.09 mm to 0.5 mm are utilized to further demonstrate grid convergence of the dynamic structure LES model for the gasoline sprays. Grid settings are recommended to optimize the accuracy/runtime tradeoff for LES-based spray simulations at different injection pressure conditions typically encountered in gasoline direct injection (GDI) applications. The influence of LES sub-grid scale (SGS) models is explored by comparing the results from dynamic structure and Smagorinsky based models against simulations without any SGS model. Twenty different realizations are simulated by changing the random number seed used in the spray sub-models. It is shown that for global quantities such as spray penetration, comparing a single LES simulation to experimental data is reasonable. Through a detailed analysis using the relevance index (RI) criteria, recommendations are made regarding the minimum number of LES realizations required for accurate prediction of the gasoline sprays.

Som, Sibendu↗

Interpreting internal consistency of DES measurements

ABSTRACT Bayesian evidence ratios are widely used to quantify the statistical consistency between different experiments. However, since the evidence ratio is prior dependent, the precise translation between its value and the degree of concordance/discordance requires additional information. The most commonly adopted metric, the Jeffreys scale, can falsely suggest agreement between data sets when priors are chosen to be sufficiently wide. This work examines evidence ratios in a DES-Y1 simulated analysis, focusing on the internal consistency between weak lensing and galaxy clustering. We study two scenarios using simulated data in controlled experiments. First, we calibrate the expected evidence ratio distribution given noise realizations around the best-fitting DES-Y1 ΛCDM cosmology. Secondly, we show the behaviour of evidence ratios for noiseless fiducial data vectors simulated using a modified gravity model, which generates internal tension in the LCDM analysis. We find that the evidence ratio of noise realizations generated at all confidence levels was biased towards agreement and show, with a modified gravity model, that the choice of prior could conceal the discrepancies between weak lensing and galaxy clustering induced by prior effects in unlike cosmological models, concluding that the evidence ratio in a DES-Y1 study is, indeed, biased towards agreement. Boundary effects can also influence conclusions about the inconsistency induced by modified gravity, even in a noiseless data vector simulation.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The Alcock–Paczynski effect from Lyman- α forest correlations: analysis validation with synthetic data

The three-dimensional distribution of the Ly α forest has been extensively used to constrain cosmology through measurements of the baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO) scale. However, more cosmological information could be extracted from the full shapes of the Ly α forest correlations through the Alcock–Paczynski (AP) effect. In this work, we prepare for a cosmological analysis of the full shape of the Ly α forest correlations by studying synthetic data of the extended Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (eBOSS). We use a set of 100 eBOSS synthetic data sets in order to validate such an analysis. These mocks undergo the same analysis process as the real data. We perform a full-shape analysis on the mean of the correlation functions measured from the 100 eBOSS realizations, and find that our model of the Ly α correlations performs well on current data sets. We show that we are able to obtain an unbiased full-shape measurement of D M /D H (z eff ), where D M is the transverse comoving distance, D H is the Hubble distance, and z eff is the effective redshift of the measurement. We test the fit over a range of scales, and decide to use a minimum separation of r min = 25 h –1 Mpc. Here, we also study and discuss the impact of the main contaminants affecting Ly α forest correlations, and give recommendations on how to perform such analysis with real data. While the final eBOSS Ly α BAO analysis measured D M /D H (z eff = 2.33) with 4 per cent statistical precision, a full-shape fit of the same correlations could provide an $\sim 2~{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ measurement.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Perturbation analysis of internal balancing for lightly damped mechanical systems with gyroscopic and circulatory forces

Approximate expressions are developed for internally balanced singular values corresponding to the modes of mechanical systems with gyroscopic forces, light damping, and small circulatory forces. A brief overview is first given of the balanced realization model reduction method, including a discussion of recent work. The models considered are defined, and a perturbation analysis is used to show that the modal representation becomes asymptotically balanced as damping reduces to zero. The approximate balanced singular values are calculated, and a simple example of a flexible, dual-spin spacecraft is given as an illustration of the results.

Blelloch, P. A.↗

Analysis of the elliptic integrable non-linear system in IOTA using tracking of a single electron

Integrable nonlinear lattices that can be realized in practical accelerators are of great interest, as they offer the potential to support high-intensity beams via Landau damping of collective instabilities. One such system, based on an elliptic potential, has been extensively studied at the IOTA storage ring at Fermilab. The analysis of strongly nonlinear dynamics with multi-particle bunches is challenging due to the rapid decoherence of kicked beams. IOTA has the capability to track single electrons using linear multi-anode photomultiplier tubes for simultaneously measuring transverse coordinates and arrival times of synchrotron-radiation pulses. This technology enables the full reconstruction of turn-by-turn positions and momenta in all three planes for a single particle. Using this apparatus, we measured the dependence of small-amplitude tunes on the strength of the nonlinear magnet, as well as tunes dependence on oscillations amplitudes.

Romanov, A. [Fermilab]↗