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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Statistical and Machine Learning Approaches to Analyzing Pipeline Incidents in the United States (2010–2024)

This study applies machine learning methods to analyze natural gas pipeline incidents in the United States using the Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA) Gas Distribution Incident Dataset (2010–2024). The dataset includes over 600 variables describing incident characteristics, infrastructure attributes, and contributing factors associated with unintentional gas releases. The objective is to assess whether these features can reliably predict the underlying cause of pipeline failures. Multinomial logistic regression and Random Forest models were developed to classify incident causes, including excavation damage, corrosion, equipment failure, and natural forces. Results show that excavation damage is both the most frequent and most predictable cause, with models achieving strong performance for this category. However, when excavation damage is excluded, model accuracy declines significantly, with some models performing near random levels. Across all approaches, severe class imbalance and limited variability in key predictors constrain predictive performance. Pipeline age and diameter emerge as the most influential variables, but they provide insufficient discriminatory power to distinguish among less frequent failure types. These findings indicate that non-excavation-related incidents are rare, heterogeneous, and weakly represented in the dataset, limiting the effectiveness of machine learning classification. Overall, this study highlights the structural limitations of the PHMSA dataset for predictive modeling and underscores the need for improved data balance and feature enrichment. The results reinforce excavation damage prevention as the most impactful strategy for reducing pipeline incidents.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
NASA NTRS2021

Colorado Ecological Forecasting: Monitoring Post-fire Cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum) Distribution to Inform Management Planning

Cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum) is a species of concern across the western United States as it has the potential to outcompete native plant species, reduce biodiversity, and diminish nutrient availability for ungulates. Furthermore, because cheatgrass can quickly dominate disturbed landscapes it has the potential to exacerbate wildfire risk by increasing fuel loads. In 2020, the Cameron Peak fire burned more than 200,000 acres on the Arapaho and Roosevelt National Forests in Colorado. These issues are of imminent concern for our partners at the Forest Service (USFS), as they are tasked with wildfire risk and invasive species mitigation. Disturbances such as wildfires can substantially increase the rate and extent of cheatgrass spread. Current cheatgrass mitigation methods rely on field crews to physically locate cheatgrass on the landscape, which takes time, money, and extensive manpower. Here, we developed two Random Forest models within the Software for Assisted Habitat Modeling (SAHM) using remote sensing predictors derived from Sentinel-2 MultiSpectral Instrument (MSI) and Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM). The first model identified suitable cheatgrass habitat while the other detected cheatgrass presence during the 2021 growing season. Topographic variables were found to be the most important in driving the habitat suitability model. Cheatgrass detection was also found to be possible within a short timespan with limited imagery surrounding a phenological shift of the plant. Maps produced from these models provide natural resource managers the ability to implement early detection and rapid response to prevent the spread of cheatgrass to new locations.

DEVELOP Tech Paper↗
DOE OSTI2025

Aided Active Learning (AAL) for Enhanced Critical Heat Flux Prediction

Accurate prediction of critical heat flux (CHF) is crucial for the safe and efficient operation of nuclear reactors. Traditional CHF modeling methods often require extensive experimental data, which are hard to obtain. This study introduces the Aided Active Learning (AAL) framework, which strategically minimizes data requirements without sacrificing model accuracy. Unlike conventional Active Learning (AL), AAL introduces an additional step of randomly selecting a subset from the sample pool before applying the query strategy. To evaluate the performance of AAL, two query strategies—uncertainty-based sampling and error-reduction sampling—were evaluated across the following models: random forest (RF), feedforward neural network (FNN), and variational feedforward neural network (vFNN). The proposed framework demonstrated that AAL effectively reduces the number of training samples needed to achieve comparable predictive accuracy. For the RF model, AL required only 710 samples to achieve an R2 score of 0.98, as compared to the 4,785 samples needed by random sampling. Similarly, the FNN model achieved the same R2 score with just 355 samples when using AL, a significant improvement over the 825 samples required by random sampling. In case of uncertainty-based sampling strategy, vFNN attained an R2 of 0.98 with 3,420 samples, reducing the sample requirement by 47% relative to the 6,440 samples needed for random sampling. Its performance suggests that larger training data are required to fully leverage its uncertainty quantification capabilities.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Measuring photometric redshifts for high-redshift radio source surveys

With the advent of deep, all-sky radio surveys, the need for ancillary data to make the most of the new, high-quality radio data from surveys like the Evolutionary Map of the Universe (EMU), GaLactic and Extragalactic All-sky Murchison Widefield Array survey eXtended, Very Large Array Sky Survey, and LOFAR Two-metre Sky Survey is growing rapidly. Radio surveys produce significant numbers of Active Galactic Nuclei (AGNs) and have a significantly higher average redshift when compared with optical and infrared all-sky surveys. Thus, traditional methods of estimating redshift are challenged, with spectroscopic surveys not reaching the redshift depth of radio surveys, and AGNs making it difficult for template fitting methods to accurately model the source. Machine Learning (ML) methods have been used, but efforts have typically been directed towards optically selected samples, or samples at significantly lower redshift than expected from upcoming radio surveys. This work compiles and homogenises a radio-selected dataset from both the northern hemisphere (making use of Sloan Digital Sky Survey optical photometry) and southern hemisphere (making use of Dark Energy Survey optical photometry). We then test commonly used ML algorithms such as k-Nearest Neighbours (kNN), Random Forest, ANNz, and GPz on this monolithic radio-selected sample. We show that kNN has the lowest percentage of catastrophic outliers, providing the best match for the majority of science cases in the EMU survey. We note that the wider redshift range of the combined dataset used allows for estimation of sources up to z = 3 before random scatter begins to dominate. When binning the data into redshift bins and treating the problem as a classification problem, we are able to correctly identify ≈ 76% of the highest redshift sources—sources at redshift z > 2.51 —as being in either the highest bin (z > 2.51) or second highest (z = 2.25).

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

The drivers and predictability of wildfire re-burns in the western United States (US)

Evidence is mounting that the effectiveness of using prescribed burns as a management tactic may be diminishing due to the higher incidence of wildfire re-burns. The development of predictive models of re-burns is thus essential to better understand their primary drivers so that forest management practices can be updated to account for these events. First, we assess the potential for human activity as a driver of re-burns by evaluating re-burn trends both within and outside of the wildland–urban interface (WUI) of the western US. Next, we investigate the predictability of re-burns through the application of both random forest and the explanatory machine learning non-negative matrix factorization using k-means clustering (NMFk) algorithms to predict re-burn occurrence over California based on a number of climate factors. Our findings indicate that while most states showed increasing trends within the WUI when trends were conducted over longer moving windows (e.g. 20 years), California was the only state where the rate of increase was consistently higher in the WUI, indicating a stronger potential for human activity as a driver in that location. Furthermore, we find model performance was found to be robust over most of California (Testing F1 scores = 0.688), although results were highly variable based on EPA level III Ecoregion (F1 scores = 0.0–0.778). Insights provided from this study will lead to a better understanding of climate and human activity drivers of re-burns and how these vary at broad spatial scales so that improvements in forest management practices can be tuned according to the level of change that is expected for a given region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Artificial Diversity and Defense Security (ADDSec)

Artificial Diversity and Defense Security (ADDSec) machine learning algorithms are used to classify and cluster threats so that an appropriate response can be initiated as a mitigation strategy. The package includes an ensemble of machine learning algorithms such as Support Vector Machines, naïve bayes, logistic regression, and random forest that evolve with the data to recognize anomalous behavior at the host and network levels. Inputs into the machine learning algorithms include end host system calls, system utilization, packet captures, and syslog messages. The machine learning algorithms can be retrained based on user defined intervals or on the number of packets received. ADDSEC's threat responses include Internet Protocol (IP) Address randomization, application port number randomization, and application library randomization. The IP randomization implementation is built on top of a Software Defined Networking (SDN) framework. The SDN controller installs flows on each of the SDN switches with randomized source and destination IP addresses. The application port numbers are randomized using iptables. The application library randomization is created with a LLVM compiler. All randomization schemes are transparent to the endpoints on the network. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525. SAND2021-3379 O

Cox, RebeccaE.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Using electronic health record metadata to predict housing instability amongst veterans

Housing instability is considered a significant life stressor and preemptive screening should be applied to identify those at risk for homelessness as early as possible so that they can be targeted for specialized care. We developed models to classify patient outcomes for an established VA Homelessness Screening Clinical Reminder (HSCR), which identifies housing instability, in the two months prior to its administration. Logistic Regression and Random Forest models were fit to classify responses using the last 18 months of document activity. We measure concentration of risk across stratifications of predicted probability and observe an enriched likelihood of finding confirmed false negative responses from veterans with diagnosed housing instability. Positive responses were 34 times more likely to be detected within the top 1 % of patients predicted at risk than from those randomly selected. There is a 1 in 4 chance of detecting false negatives within the top 1 % of predicted risk. Machine learning methods can classify between episodes of housing instability using a data-driven approach that does not rely on variables curated from domain experts. This method has the potential to improve clinicians’ ability to identify veterans who are experiencing housing instability but are not captured by HSCR.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2021

Maya Forest Water Resources I: Using NASA Earth Observations to Map Forested Inundation in the Maya Forest

As climate change increases the severity and frequency of extreme weather events in the tropics, it is vital for the safety of local communities and the health of ecosystems to monitor seasonal inundation. Forested inundation affects the ability of forested wetlands to provide ecosystem services, such as flood mitigation, water filtration, carbon storage, and erosion mitigation. While ground-based monitoring has traditionally been used to map inundation extent, those methods are costly and time-intensive. The NASA DEVELOP team focused on seasonal inundation throughout 2008 in the Maya Forest, when changes in inundation were drastic. To monitor seasonal inundation, our team used in situ field data and Earth observations from Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper (ETM+), Advanced Land Observing Satellite (ALOS) Phased Array type L-band Synthetic Aperture Radar (PALSAR) 1, Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM), and products from the Ice, Cloud, and Land Elevation Satellite (ICESat). The team applied a Random Forest algorithm to Landsat 7 imagery, generating an object-level land cover classification with an overall accuracy of 72.1% and forest class with 100% recall and 78% precision. The team applied L-band backscatter thresholds from existing literature to forest-masked ALOS imagery and refined the thresholds in an iterative process using field data and hydrology models to delineate seasonal inundation extent. These publicly available data products help end users from Belize’s Land Information Center (LIC) and Forest Department, Guatemala’s Center for Monitoring and Evaluation (CEMEC), and Mexico’s El Colegio de la Frontera Sur (ECOSUR) to inform land management and protect community infrastructure.

Madelyn Savan↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Transcriptomics-based Machine Learning Analysis Predicts Space-Exposed Murine Livers

Limited sample sizes, high data dimensionality, and sensitivity to technical and biological variability of next generation sequencing (NGS), typically limits machine learning (ML) approaches in spaceflight studies that include radiation effects. However, pooling smaller studies while addressing intra- and inter-study variabilities allows for ML predictive modeling. Here, integration methods were applied to whole transcriptome shotgun sequencing (RNA-seq) data from six mouse liver GeneLab datasets (GLDS) (n ranging from 6 to 39 samples) from with a total of 81 spaceflight and ground-control samples to determine top features (i.e. genes) relevant to spaceflight including the effect of radiation exposure. RNASeq counts were normalized for each study, then merged and scaled across all datasets. Data dimensionality was reduced using a minimum redundancy maximum relevance (MRMR) methodology. Redundancy and relevance were computed using the Pearson correlation and F-statistic, respectively. The top 100 MRMR features were used to predict spaceflight vs. ground-control samples using Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Machine (SVM), and Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA) classifiers with 5-fold cross validation (CV). Principal component analysis (PCA) on the complete feature set versus the MRMR features shows separation between spaceflight samples and ground controls (Figure 1A). The ML-based gene sets were compared against differential gene expression results obtained with DESeq2 from individual GLDS. Using all features or randomly sampled subsets at matching set sizes with MRMR, a maximum classifier accuracy of 69% was shown on the test set over 5 folds. For all classifiers, CV training using at least the top 30 MRMR genes show minimum 89% accuracy and 0.95 AUC value on the test set over 5 folds (Figure 1B). Baseline set analysis on differentially expressed genes (DEGs) identified using padj ≤ 0.05 show 295 DEGs that overlap at least two studies and 13 DEGs that overlap three studies (Figure 1C). Set analysis between the top 100 MRMR features and the DEGs showed 47 genes that overlap at least one study and 24 genes that overlap two studies. Over-representation analysis showed overlapping biological processes related to fatty acid and lipid metabolism which may indicate these processes in the response to spaceflight stressors. MRMR feature selection for the selected ML methods improve performance relative to a classifier built on all features or randomly sampled subsets. Permutation feature importance within the decorrelated MRMR features showed concordance in feature ranking between ML methods. A challenge of applying ML methods across heterogeneous NGS data is accounting for signal:noise. Here, signal validation across studies was shown by intersecting sets between top MRMR genes and DEGs from DESeq2 analysis. Non-intersecting sets introduce opportunity to explore genes relevant to differentiating space flight exposed groups and implementing ML methods across existing NGS datasets may overcome sample size limitations.

Machine Learning↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Transcriptomics-based Machine Learning (ML) Analysis Predicts Space-Exposed Murine Livers

Limited sample sizes, high data dimensionality, and sensitivity to technical and biological variability of next generation sequencing (NGS), typically limits machine learning (ML) approaches in spaceflight studies that include radiation effects. However, pooling smaller studies while addressing intra- and inter-study variabilities allows for ML predictive modeling. Here, integration methods were applied to whole transcriptome shotgun sequencing (RNA-seq) data from six mouse liver GeneLab datasets (GLDS) (n ranging from 6 to 39 samples) from with a total of 81 spaceflight and ground-control samples to determine top features (i.e. genes) relevant to spaceflight including the effect of radiation exposure. RNASeq counts were normalized for each study, then merged and scaled across all datasets. Data dimensionality was reduced using a minimum redundancy maximum relevance (MRMR) methodology. Redundancy and relevance were computed using the Pearson correlation and F-statistic, respectively. The top 100 MRMR features were used to predict spaceflight vs. ground-control samples using Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Machine (SVM), and Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA) classifiers with 5-fold cross validation (CV). Principal component analysis (PCA) on the complete feature set versus the MRMR features shows separation between spaceflight samples and ground controls (Figure 1A). The ML-based gene sets were compared against differential gene expression results obtained with DESeq2 from individual GLDS. Using all features or randomly sampled subsets at matching set sizes with MRMR, a maximum classifier accuracy of 69% on the test set over 5 folds. For all classifiers, CV training using at least the top 30 MRMR genes show minimum 89% accuracy and 0.95 AUC value on the test set over 5 folds (Figure 1B). Baseline set analysis on differentially expressed genes (DEGs) identified using padj ≤ 0.05 show 295 DEGs that overlap at least two studies and 13 DEGs that overlap three studies (Figure 1C). Set analysis between the top 100 MRMR features and the DEGs showed 47 genes that overlap at least one study and 24 genes that overlap two studies. Over-representation analysis showed overlapping biological processes related to fatty acid and lipid metabolism which may indicate these processes in the response to spaceflight stressors. MRMR feature selection for the selected ML methods improve performance relative to a classifier built on all features or randomly sampled subsets. Permutation feature importance within the decorrelated MRMR features showed concordance in feature ranking between ML methods. A challenge of applying ML methods across heterogeneous NGS data is accounting for signal:noise. Here, signal validation across studies was shown by intersecting sets between top MRMR genes and DEGs from DESeq2 analysis. Non-intersecting sets introduce opportunity to explore genes relevant to differentiating space flight exposed groups and implementing ML methods across existing NGS datasets may overcome sample size limitations.

Machine Learning↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Transcriptomics-based Machine Learning Analysis Predicts Space-Exposed Murine Livers

Limited sample sizes, high data dimensionality, and sensitivity to technical and biological variability of next generation sequencing (NGS), typically limits machine learning (ML) approaches in spaceflight studies that include radiation effects. However, pooling smaller studies while addressing intra- and inter-study variabilities allows for ML predictive modeling. Here, integration methods were applied to whole transcriptome shotgun sequencing (RNA-seq) data from six mouse liver GeneLab datasets (GLDS) (n ranging from 6 to 39 samples) from with a total of 81 spaceflight and ground-control samples to determine top features (i.e. genes) relevant to spaceflight including the effect of radiation exposure. RNASeq counts were normalized for each study, then merged and scaled across all datasets. Data dimensionality was reduced using a minimum redundancy maximum relevance (MRMR) methodology. Redundancy and relevance were computed using the Pearson correlation and F-statistic, respectively. The top 100 MRMR features were used to predict spaceflight vs. ground-control samples using Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Machine (SVM), and Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA) classifiers with 5-fold cross validation (CV). Principal component analysis (PCA) on the complete feature set versus the MRMR features shows separation between spaceflight samples and ground controls (Figure 1A). The ML-based gene sets were compared against differential gene expression results obtained with DESeq2 from individual GLDS. Using all features or randomly sampled subsets at matching set sizes with MRMR, a maximum classifier accuracy of 69% was shown on the test set over 5 folds. For all classifiers, CV training using at least the top 30 MRMR genes show minimum 89% accuracy and 0.95 AUC value on the test set over 5 folds (Figure 1B). Baseline set analysis on differentially expressed genes (DEGs) identified using padj ≤ 0.05 show 295 DEGs that overlap at least two studies and 13 DEGs that overlap three studies (Figure 1C). Set analysis between the top 100 MRMR features and the DEGs showed 47 genes that overlap at least one study and 24 genes that overlap two studies. Over-representation analysis showed overlapping biological processes related to fatty acid and lipid metabolism which may indicate these processes in the response to spaceflight stressors. MRMR feature selection for the selected ML methods improve performance relative to a classifier built on all features or randomly sampled subsets. Permutation feature importance within the decorrelated MRMR features showed concordance in feature ranking between ML methods. A challenge of applying ML methods across heterogeneous NGS data is accounting for signal:noise. Here, signal validation across studies was shown by intersecting sets between top MRMR genes and DEGs from DESeq2 analysis. Non-intersecting sets introduce opportunity to explore genes relevant to differentiating space flight exposed groups and implementing ML methods across existing NGS datasets may overcome sample size limitations.

Machine Learning↗
NASA NTRS2020

Gila Water Resources III - Modeling the Impacts of Post-fire Restoration Methods on Vegetation Recovery in the Gila National Forest

In recent years, wildfires in New Mexico’s Gila National Forest have become increasingly common and more severe. Wildfires can have powerful impacts on hydrology and soil stability, including erosion, flooding, and debris-flows that threaten lives and infrastructure downstream. Vegetation restoration treatments like seeding and mulching can mitigate these effects and facilitate ecosystem recovery. Understanding the effectiveness of various restoration methods is vital to planning a cost-effective and successful post-fire recovery strategy. The immediate response to a fire on US Forest Service land is coordinated by a Burned Area Emergency Response (BAER) team, a group responsible for mitigating immediate post-fire risks to human life, property, and critical natural and cultural resources. This study created a proof-of-concept methodology for a decision-support tool designed to help BAER teams identify the restoration treatments most likely to succeed in a given burned area. Leveraging random forest regression, Google Earth Engine, and Landsat 7 and 8 Earth observations, this study modeled vegetation recovery after the 2013 Silver Fire for seeded areas, seeded/mulched areas, and untreated areas. Treatment type and initial burn severity were the largest drivers of vegetation recovery across the landscape. Seeded/mulched areas showed higher recovery levels than untreated areas three months post-fire, but by four years post-fire, treated and untreated areas displayed similar recovery levels. To produce a robust predictive tool for the Gila National Forest, the model should be trained on many more fires and incorporate post-fire weather conditions into the process. Such a model will help partners ensure efficient resource use and plan effective post-fire restoration strategies.

DEVELOP Project Summary↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Mapping Post-fire Conifer Regeneration using Snow-on Imagery

The 2000 Jasper Fire in the Black Hills of South Dakota was the largest wildfire to date in the region, burning over 83,000 acres of ponderosa pine forest. In collaboration with partners from the United States Forest Service (USFS) Black Hills Experimental Forest, USFS Rocky Mountain Research Station, and United States Geological Survey Geosciences and Environmental Change Science Center, we characterized post-fire forest regeneration within high severity burn patches. We accomplished this by implementing novel conifer detection techniques using a snow index mask to create a winter, snow-on image composite from Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) and Sentinel-2 Multispectral Instrument (MSI) data. We utilized 2015 USFS stem maps of field-observed regeneration plots and ocularly sampled reforestation sites planted from 2001–2013. The field data and imagery were used to train a Random Forest (RF) model in Google Earth Engine. The RF model classified conifer regeneration density as low, medium, or high across the high-severity burn area with an overall accuracy of 81.3% for 2021. Approximately 45.9% of the high-severity burn area had low or no regeneration (0-40 trees per acre) 20 years post-fire. Given our partners' desire to find easily accessible low conifer regeneration zones, we identified 4,079 acres of priority planting sites that were within 1,500 feet of roads, had not been planted previously, and were larger than 50 acres. This method supports the use of snow-on imagery as a successful technique to identify conifer regeneration in a post-wildfire landscape.

Yeshey Seldon↗
NASA NTRS2021

Maya Forest Water Resources II: Mapping Inundation Below the Forest Canopy in the Maya Tri-National Forest

To monitor seasonal flooding within the tri-National Maya Forest the team completed the methodology started by the Summer 2021 term to analyze changes in inundation dynamic throughout 2017. The team analyzed inundation dynamics in Google Earth Engine (GEE) using Earth observation products from the Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), Advanced Land Observing Satellite (ALOS) Phased Array type L-band Synthetic Aperture Radar (PALSAR) 2, and International Space Station (ISS) Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation LiDAR (GEDI). The team improved the landcover classification using the Random Forest algorithm in GEE by adding canopy height data derived from GEDI, elevation and slope data from Copernicus, and additional multi-spectral band ratios from Landsat 8. The pixel-based land cover classification produced an overall accuracy of 88%. Experiments measuring inundation extent using L-band SAR included comparing results with a priori knowledge, topography datasets, and auxiliary datasets. We iteratively tested and found threshold values for identifying forested inundation using the ratio for HH divided by HV. The resulting methodology and products helped end users from Belize’s Land Information Center (LIC) and Forest Department, Guatemala’s Center for Monitoring and Evaluation (CEMEC), and Mexico’s El Colegio de la Frontera Sur (ECOSUR) manage land and water resources and protect communities.

Stephanie Jiménez↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Black Hills Wildfires: Mapping Post-fire Conifer Regeneration using Snow-on Imagery

The 2000 Jasper Fire in the Black Hills of South Dakota was the largest wildfire to date in the region, burning over 83,000 acres of ponderosa pine forest. In collaboration with partners from the United States Forest Service (USFS) Black Hills Experimental Forest, USFS Rocky Mountain Research Station, and United States Geological Survey Geosciences and Environmental Change Science Center, we characterized post-fire forest regeneration within high-severity burn patches. We accomplished this by implementing novel conifer detection techniques using a snow index mask to create a winter, snow-on image composite from Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) and Sentinel-2 Multispectral Instrument (MSI) data. We utilized 2015 USFS stem maps of field-observed regeneration plots and ocularly sampled additional reforestation sites planted in 2001–2013. In Google Earth Engine (GEE), the field data and imagery were used to train a Random Forest (RF) model. The RF model classified 2021 conifer regeneration density as low, medium, or high across the high-severity burn area with an overall accuracy of 81.3%. Approximately 45.9% of the high-severity burn had low or no regeneration (0-40 trees per acre) 20 years post-fire. Given our partners' desire to find easily accessible low conifer regeneration zones, we identified 4,079 acres of priority planting sites that were within 1,500 feet of roads, had not been planted previously, and were larger than 50 acres. This method supports the use of snow-on imagery as a successful technique to identify conifer regeneration.

Casey Menick​↗
NASA NTRS2022

Black Hills Wildfires: Mapping Post-Fire Conifer Regeneration using Snow-On Imagery

The 2000 Jasper Fire in the Black Hills of South Dakota was the largest wildfire to date in the region, burning over 83,000 acres of ponderosa pine forest. In collaboration with partners from the United States Forest Service (USFS) Black Hills Experimental Forest, USFS Rocky Mountain Research Station, and United States Geological Survey Geosciences and Environmental Change Science Center, we characterized post-fire forest regeneration within high-severity burn patches. We accomplished this by implementing novel conifer detection techniques using a snow index mask to create a winter, snow-on image composite from Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) and Sentinel-2 Multispectral Instrument (MSI) data. We utilized 2015 USFS stem maps of field-observed regeneration plots and ocularly sampled additional reforestation sites planted in 2001–2013. In Google Earth Engine (GEE), the field data and imagery were used to train a Random Forest (RF) model. The RF model classified 2021 conifer regeneration density as low, medium, or high across the high-severity burn area with an overall accuracy of 81.3%. Approximately 45.9% of the high-severity burn had low or no regeneration (0-40 trees per acre) 20 years post-fire. Given our partners' desire to find easily accessible low conifer regeneration zones, we identified 4,079 acres of priority planting sites that were within 1,500 feet of roads, had not been planted previously, and were larger than 50 acres. This method supports the use of snow-on imagery as a successful technique to identify conifer regeneration.

Casey Menick↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Southern Rockies Western Slope Agriculture: Identifying Drivers of Rangeland Production for Drought Planning on the Western Slope of the Southern Rockies

Over the last decade, the southern Rocky Mountains of the United States have experienced increasingly severe and variable drought. Local ranchers and landowners have reported strain on their operations, citing decreasing forage production for their cattle and a need to adjust their business models, even considering abandoning their businesses altogether. The study identified Major Land Resource Area-48 (MLRA-48) and northwestern Colorado as the key region for analysis. NASA DEVELOP partnered with the BLM Colorado River Field Office, Colorado State University Extension, USDA Forest Service, and the National Drought Mitigation Center to address stakeholder concerns of the efficacy of existing remotely sensed rangeland production estimation platforms and explore possible early warning climatic indicators of drought. The study identified two key rangeland platforms, the Rangeland Production Monitoring Service (RPMS) and Rangeland Analysis Platform (RAP) and used in-situ data to statistically validate their efficacy. RAP outperformed RPMS in estimating in-situ biomass and was therefore used in our climate modeling. Our study performed a random forest analysis, sampling 1500 points across the study area, comparing monthly RAP biomass estimates to a variety of climatic variables, including mean precipitation, temperature, palmer drought severity index, snow water equivalent, wind speed and direction, and vapor pressure deficit. After analysis, our study determined that vapor pressure deficit is a key indicator in predicting forage production in MLRA-48. Our study recommends the use of RAP in estimating potential forage, with caution for its tendency to overestimate. Our climate analysis provided our partners with greater understanding of the influence of various climatic factors in determining forage production and allows them to assist landowners in planning for future drought.

Addie Gonzalez↗
DOE OSTI2023

Target Selection and Validation of DESI Quasars

The Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) survey will measure large-scale structures using quasars as direct tracers of dark matter in the redshift range 0.9 < z < 2.1 and using Lyα forests in quasar spectra at z > 2.1. We present several methods to select candidate quasars for DESI, using input photometric imaging in three optical bands (g, r, z) from the DESI Legacy Imaging Surveys and two infrared bands (W1, W2) from the Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer. These methods were extensively tested during the Survey Validation of DESI. In this paper, we report on the results obtained with the different methods and present the selection we optimized for the DESI main survey. The final quasar target selection is based on a random forest algorithm and selects quasars in the magnitude range of 16.5 < r < 23. Visual selection of ultra-deep observations indicates that the main selection consists of 71% quasars, 16% galaxies, 6% stars, and 7% inconclusive spectra. Using the spectra based on this selection, we build an automated quasar catalog that achieves a fraction of true QSOs higher than 99% for a nominal effective exposure time of ~1000 s. With a 310 deg -2 target density, the main selection allows DESI to select more than 200 deg -2 quasars (including 60 deg -2 quasars with z > 2.1), exceeding the project requirements by 20%. The redshift distribution of the selected quasars is in excellent agreement with quasar luminosity function predictions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗