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Combining New Satellite Tools and Models to Examine Role of Mesoscale Interactions in Formation and Intensification of Tropical Cyclones

The objective of this research is to start filling the mesoscale gap to improve understanding and probability forecasts of formation and intensity variations of tropical cyclones. Sampling by aircraft equipped to measure mesoscale processes is expensive, thus confined in place and time. Hence we turn to satellite products. This paper reports preliminary results of a tropical cyclone genesis and early intensification study. We explore the role of mesoscale processes using a combination of products from TRMM, QuikSCAT, AMSU, also SSM/I, geosynchronous and model output. Major emphasis is on the role of merging mesoscale vortices. These initially form in midlevel stratiform cloud. When they form in regions of lowered Rossby radius of deformation (strong background vorticity) the mesoscale vortices can last long enough to interact and merge, with the weaker vortex losing vorticity to the stronger, which can then extend down to the surface. In an earlier cyclongenesis case (Oliver 1993) off Australia, intense deep convection occurred when the stronger vortex reached the surface; this vortex became the storm center while the weaker vortex was sheared out as the major rainband. In our study of Atlantic tropical cyclones originating from African waves, we use QuikSCAT to examine surface winds in the African monsoon trough and in the vortices which move westward off the coast, which may or may not undergo genesis (defined by NHC as reaching TD, or tropical depression, with a west wind to the south of the surface low). We use AMSU mainly to examine development of warm cores. TRMM passive microwave TMI is used with SSM/I to look at the rain structure, which often indicates eye formation, and to look at the ice scattering signatures of deep convection. The TRMM precipitation radar, PR, when available, gives precipitation cross sections. So far we have detailed studies of two African-origin cyclones, one which became severe hurricane Floyd 1999, and the other reached TD2 in June 2000 and then died out. The atmosphere off West African is dry and stable. It becomes less so between June and September, as the SST and convection heat up. QuikSCAT shows the African monsoon trough and shear zone extend westward over the ocean to nearly 30 degrees West. The evidence is strong that the two cyclones had in common multiple midlevel mergers, which extended to the surface keeping the surface vortex strong. These continued until both systems were designated TD's by NHC. In the June 2000 case, the main reason for failure was the lower SST and dry, stable atmosphere. This is shown by the comparison of the equivalent potential temperature maps and profiles with those from pre-Floyd. In the vortex which became Floyd, QuikSCAT shows continuous importation of high theta e (warm, moist) air from the south. From September 2-8, this air flowed around the vortex center, building up a high theta-e pool to the north. Then late on September 9, a 100-km wide jet of high theta-e air penetrated the vortex core, a major convective burst' was observed, and an intensifying, more elevated warm core was seen on AMSU. Rapid pressure fall and wind intensification were underway by 0000 UTC on September 10. Floyd became a Hurricane at 1200 UTC on Sept 10, 1999, with successive convective bursts running the hurricane thermodynamic engine by intensifying the warm core. TD2 was a strong African vortex, sustained by moderate convection (up to about 12.5 km) offshore of Africa. It peaked on June 23, showing an apparent "eye" on passive microwave composites. However, it could not assemble the ingredients for a convective burst. Thus it failed to get the thermodynamic hurricane engine going before it moved too far west of the region of lowered Rossby radius. By June 26, cloud systems were dying out. On June 25, a surface vortex was no longer seen on QuikSCAT, although one continued above the surface on model profiles until June 27. One of our main findings so far is showing the role of the mesoscale vortex interactions in sustaining some African vortices far out in to the mid Atlantic, where under adequate thermal/moisture conditions the hurricane heat engine can sometimes be started. We are working on similar studies of Cindy and Irene 1999. Cindy illustrates a case of wind shear working against an early-stage hurricane heat engine, while Irene formed from a Caribbean wave. An enormous value of combinations of satellite tools is that tropical cyclones can be studied in all parts of the global oceans where they occur. Detailed studies like ours are labor intensive but many statistical studies can be based on physical postulates developed. There are other new tools such as MODIS on TERRA of the Earth Observing System (EOS) which can be used to study the microphysics of tropical cyclones world wide, in particular to investigate the presence of mixed phase and the impact of atmospheric aerosols on the hydrometeor structure and rainfall from tropical cyclones.

Simpson, Joanne↗

Relationship of isolated turbulent regions to the general turbulent background, part 4.4A

The atmosphere below 100 km is often referred to as the homosphere; the region above, the heterosphere. In the homosphere, constitutents are mixed, and average molecular weight is constant. In the heterosphere, diffusive separation occurs, and species tend to fractionate; average molecular weight decreases with height. Mixing in the homosphere has its source dynamical (wind) energy. Against this background turbulence, intermittent enhancements of turbulent intensity are observed. Some of these enhancements are long lived -- for example, a turbulent layer at approximately 86 km altitude seems to be almost a permanent feature of the (global) daytime D region, as oserved by partial reflection. This may well be a delineation of the mesopause level, since long-term radio meteor studies have shown approx. 85 km to be the breakpoint between thermospheric circulation above, and mesospheric circulation below. The use of stratosphere-troposphere (ST) radars in the lower atmosphere, and mesosphere-stratosphere-troposphere (MST) and partial-reflection radars in the mesosphere for height/time profiles of turbulent intensity is discussed.

Roper, R. G.↗

Flight Test Results: CTAS Cruise/Descent Trajectory Prediction Accuracy for En route ATC Advisories

The Center/TRACON Automation System (CTAS), under development at NASA Ames Research Center, is designed to assist controllers with the management and control of air traffic transitioning to/from congested airspace. This paper focuses on the transition from the en route environment, to high-density terminal airspace, under a time-based arrival-metering constraint. Two flight tests were conducted at the Denver Air Route Traffic Control Center (ARTCC) to study trajectory-prediction accuracy, the key to accurate Decision Support Tool advisories such as conflict detection/resolution and fuel-efficient metering conformance. In collaboration with NASA Langley Research Center, these test were part of an overall effort to research systems and procedures for the integration of CTAS and flight management systems (FMS). The Langley Transport Systems Research Vehicle Boeing 737 airplane flew a combined total of 58 cruise-arrival trajectory runs while following CTAS clearance advisories. Actual trajectories of the airplane were compared to CTAS and FMS predictions to measure trajectory-prediction accuracy and identify the primary sources of error for both. The research airplane was used to evaluate several levels of cockpit automation ranging from conventional avionics to a performance-based vertical navigation (VNAV) FMS. Trajectory prediction accuracy was analyzed with respect to both ARTCC radar tracking and GPS-based aircraft measurements. This paper presents detailed results describing the trajectory accuracy and error sources. Although differences were found in both accuracy and error sources, CTAS accuracy was comparable to the FMS in terms of both meter-fix arrival-time performance (in support of metering) and 4D-trajectory prediction (key to conflict prediction). Overall arrival time errors (mean plus standard deviation) were measured to be approximately 24 seconds during the first flight test (23 runs) and 15 seconds during the second flight test (25 runs). The major source of error during these tests was found to be the predicted winds aloft used by CTAS. Position and velocity estimates of the airplane provided to CTAS by the ATC Host radar tracker were found to be a relatively insignificant error source for the trajectory conditions evaluated. Airplane performance modeling errors within CTAS were found to not significantly affect arrival time errors when the constrained descent procedures were used. The most significant effect related to the flight guidance was observed to be the cross-track and turn-overshoot errors associated with conventional VOR guidance. Lateral navigation (LNAV) guidance significantly reduced both the cross-track and turn-overshoot error. Pilot procedures and VNAV guidance were found to significantly reduce the vertical profile errors associated with atmospheric and aircraft performance model errors.

Green, S.↗

Control of aircraft landing approach in wind shear

Wind and wind shear components are estimated and used for controlling an externally-blown flap STOL aircraft and a B-727 during landing approach under the JAWS microburst profile. A combination of feedforward and feedback concepts is used. The objective is tracking of airspeed and glide slope. Both an asymptotic disturbance rejection scheme, which is equivalent to MIMO zero assignment, and a linear quadratic scheme prove to be successful. Higher angle-of-attack is used only after thrust saturation. Downdraft is found to be more difficult to counter for STOL aircraft than is horizontal wind shear. A third design formulation based on successive loop closure is also presented. A 'Wind Shear Penetration Index' is described, which offers a simple and quantitative evaluation of an aircraft's ability to safely penetrate a wind shear. This index is particularly useful if used with Doppler radars.

Chu, Peter Yaohwa↗

Interpretations of optical observations of Mercury and the moon

Optical, thermal and radar remote-sensing measurements indicate that Mercury is covered with a relatively thick layer of soil similar in texture and thickness to lunar regolith. Photometric limb profiles measured by Mariner 10 imply that the small-scale slopes on Mercury are about half those on the moon, probably because of differing gravity. The differential photometric functions of Mercury and the moon have a latitudinal dependence which can be completely accounted for by shadowing in craters. The lack of polar darkening on Mercury in spite of the presence of a magnetic field implies that the dominant soil-darkening process on Mercury, and by extension, on the moon is not dependent on the solar wind, but probably is deposition of material evaporated by meteorite impacts. Recent measurements of Mercury's spectral reflectivity in the IR and vacuum UV are both consistent with the surface rocks of Mercury being lower in FeO than those of the moon. Based on laboratory experiments the average FeO content on the surface of Mercury is estimated to be between 3 and 6%.

Hapke, B.↗

Characteristics and Trade-Offs of Doppler Lidar Global Wind Profiling

Accurate, global profiling of wind velocity is highly desired by NASA, NOAA, the DOD/DOC/NASA Integrated Program Office (IPO)/NPOESS, DOD, and others for many applications such as validation and improvement of climate models, and improved weather prediction. The most promising technology to deliver this measurement from space is Doppler Wind Lidar (DWL). The NASA/NOAA Global Tropospheric Wind Sounder (GTWS) program is currently in the process of generating the science requirements for a space-based sensor. In order to optimize the process of defining science requirements, it is important for the scientific and user community to understand the nature of the wind measurements that DWL can make. These measurements are very different from those made by passive imaging sensors or by active radar sensors. The purpose of this paper is to convey the sampling characteristics and data product trade-offs of an orbiting DWL.

Kavaya, Michael J.↗

Hydrological Balance in Tropical Cyclones with Scatterometer and TRMM Data

Precipitation over oceans can be estimated from the radar and the microwave radiometer of the Tropical Rain Measuring Mission (TRMM). It can also be estimated from the divergence of the vertically integrated water vapor transport, through the conservation principle, assuming evaporation is relatively small. In tropical cyclones, the divergence of vertically integrated water vapor is highly dependent on the vertical transport and, therefore, on the wind divergence. Spaceborne scatterometers provide surface wind velocity and, therefore, surface wind divergence at spatial resolutions that are much higher than products of numerical weather prediction (NWP). In this study, ocean surface winds derived from the observations of space-based scatterometers and surface precipitation measured by TRMM were objectively interpolated to the same time and location during the passage of a tropical cyclone. Surface precipitation distribution was derived from wind and humidity profiles provided by NWP. When the surface level winds of NWP were replaced by the scatterometer winds, the surface precipitation patterns computed with the conservation method were found to be significantly changed and the new patterns are much closer in agreement with the patterns observed by TRMM.

Liu, W. Timothy↗

Aerosol backscatter studies supporting LAWS

Optimized Royal Signals and Radar Establishment (RSRE), Laser True Airspeed System (LATAS) algorithm for low backscatter conditions was developed. The algorithm converts backscatter intensity measurements from focused continuous-wave (CW) airborne Doppler lidar into backscatter coefficients. The performance of optimized algorithm under marginal backscatter signal conditions was evaluated. The 10.6 micron CO2 aerosol backscatter climatologies were statistically analyzed. Climatologies reveal clean background aerosol mode near 10(exp -10)/kg/sq m/sr (mixing ratio units) through middle and upper troposhere, convective mode associated with planetary boundary layer convective activity, and stratospheric mode associated with volcanically-generated aerosols. Properties of clean background mode are critical to design and simulation studies of Laser Atmospheric Wind Sounder (LAWS), a MSFC facility Instrument on the Earth Observing System (Eos). Previous intercomparisons suggested correlation between aerosol backscatter at CO2 wavelength and water vapor. Field measurements of backscatter profiles with MSFC ground-based Doppler lidar system (GBDLS) were initiated in late FY-88 to coincide with independent program of local rawinsonde releases and overflights by Multi-spectral Atmospheric Mapping Sensor (MAMS), a multi-channel infrared radiometer capable of measuring horizontal and vertical moisture distributions. Design and performance simulation studies for LAWS would benefit from the existence of a relationship between backscatter and water vapor.

Rothermel, Jeffry↗

Numerical and flight simulator test of the flight deterioration concept

Manned flight simulator response to theoretical wind shear profiles was studied in an effort to calibrate fixed-stick and pilot-in-the-loop numerical models of jet transport aircraft on approach to landing. Results of the study indicate that both fixed-stick and pilot-in-the-loop models overpredict the deleterious effects of aircraft approaches when compared to pilot performance in the manned simulator. Although the pilot-in-the-loop model does a better job than does the fixed-stick model, the study suggests that the pilot-in-the-loop model is suitable for use in meteorological predictions of adverse low-level wind shear along approach and departure courses to identify situations in which pilots may find difficulty. The model should not be used to predict the success or failure of a specific aircraft. It is suggested that the pilot model be used as part of a ground-based Doppler radar low-level wind shear detection and warning system.

Mccarthy, J.↗

Air/ground wind shear information integration: Flight test results

An element of the NASA/FAA wind shear program is the integration of ground-based microburst information on the flight deck, to support airborne wind shear alerting and microburst avoidance. NASA conducted a wind shear flight test program in the summer of 1991 during which airborne processing of Terminal Doppler Weather Radar (TDWR) data was used to derive microburst alerts. High level microburst products were extracted from TDWR, transmitted to a NASA Boeing 737 in flight via data link, and processed to estimate the wind shear hazard level (F-factor) that would be experienced by the aircraft in the core of each microburst. The microburst location and F-factor were used to derive a situation display and alerts. The situation display was successfully used to maneuver the aircraft for microburst penetrations, during which in situ 'truth' measurements were made. A total of 19 penetrations were made of TDWR-reported microburst locations, resulting in 18 airborne microburst alerts from the TDWR data and two microburst alerts from the airborne in situ measurements. The primary factors affecting alerting performance were spatial offset of the flight path from the region of strongest shear, differences in TDWR measurement altitude and airplane penetration altitude, and variations in microburst outflow profiles. Predicted and measured F-factors agreed well in penetrations near microburst cores. Although improvements in airborne and ground processing of the TDWR measurement would be required to support an airborne executive-level alerting protocol, the feasibility of airborne utilization of TDWR data link data has been demonstrated.

Hinton, David A.↗

24/7 Solar Minimum Polar Cap and Auroral Ion Temperature Observations

During the International Polar Year (IPY) two Incoherent Scatter Radars (ISRs) achieved close to 24/7 continuous observations. This presentation describes their data sets and specifically how they can provide the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) a fiduciary E- and F-region ionosphere description for solar minimum conditions in both the auroral and polar cap regions. The ionospheric description being electron density, ion temperature and electron temperature profiles from as low as 90 km extending to several scale heights above the F-layer peak. The auroral location is Poker Flat in Alaska at 65.1 N latitude, 212.5 E longitude where the NSF s new Poker Flat Incoherent Scatter Radar (PFISR) is located. This location during solar minimum conditions is in the auroral region for most of the day but is at midlatitudes, equator ward of the cusp, for about 4-8 h per day dependent upon geomagnetic activity. In contrast the polar location is Svalbard, at 78.2 N latitude, 16.0 E longitude where the EISCAT Svalbard Radar (ESR) is located. For most of the day the ESR is in the Northern Polar Cap with a noon sector passage often through the dayside cusp. Of unique relevance to IRI is that these extended observations have enabled the ionospheric morphology to be distinguished between quiet and disturbed geomagnetic conditions. During the IPY year, 1 March 2007 - 29 February 2008, about 50 solar wind Corotating Interaction Regions (CIRs) impacted geospace. Each CIR has a two to five day geomagnetic disturbance that is observed in the ESR and PFISR observations. Hence, this data set also enables the quiet-background ionospheric climatology to be established as a function of season and local time. These two separate climatologies for the ion temperature at an altitude of 300 km are presented and compared with IRI ion temperatures. The IRI ion temperatures are about 200-300 K hotter than the observed values. However, the MSIS neutral temperature at 300 km compares favorably with the quiet-background in temperature, both in magnitude and climatology.

Sojka, Jan J.↗

Fuel Burn Estimation Using Real Track Data

A procedure for estimating fuel burned based on actual flight track data, and drag and fuel-flow models is described. The procedure consists of estimating aircraft and wind states, lift, drag and thrust. Fuel-flow for jet aircraft is determined in terms of thrust, true airspeed and altitude as prescribed by the Base of Aircraft Data fuel-flow model. This paper provides a theoretical foundation for computing fuel-flow with most of the information derived from actual flight data. The procedure does not require an explicit model of thrust and calibrated airspeed/Mach profile which are typically needed for trajectory synthesis. To validate the fuel computation method, flight test data provided by the Federal Aviation Administration were processed. Results from this method show that fuel consumed can be estimated within 1% of the actual fuel consumed in the flight test. Next, fuel consumption was estimated with simplified lift and thrust models. Results show negligible difference with respect to the full model without simplifications. An iterative takeoff weight estimation procedure is described for estimating fuel consumption, when takeoff weight is unavailable, and for establishing fuel consumption uncertainty bounds. Finally, the suitability of using radar-based position information for fuel estimation is examined. It is shown that fuel usage could be estimated within 5.4% of the actual value using positions reported in the Airline Situation Display to Industry data with simplified models and iterative takeoff weight computation.

Chatterji, Gano B.↗

Sea bottom topography imaging with SAR

It is well known that under favorable meteorological and hydrodynamical conditions the bottom topography of shallow seas can be mapped with airborne or spaceborne imaging radar. This phenomenon was observed for the first time in 1969 by de Loor and co-workers in Q-band Side Looking Airborne Radar (SLAR) imagery of sandwaves in the North Sea. It is now generally accepted that the imaging mechanism consists of three steps: (1) interaction between (tidal) current and bottom topography causes spatial modulations in the surface current velocity; (2) modulations in the surface current velocity give rise to variations in the spectrum of wind-generated waves, as described by the action balance equation; and (3) variations in the wave spectrum show up as intensity modulations in radar imagery. In order to predict radar backscatter modulations caused by sandwaves, an imaging model, covering the three steps, was developed by the Dutch Sea Bottom Topography Group. This model and some model results will be shown. On 16 Aug. 1989 an experiment was performed with the polarimetric P-, L-, and C-band synthetic aperture radar (SAR) of NASA/JPL. One scene was recorded in SAR mode. On 12 Jul. 1991 another three scenes were recorded, of which one was in the ATI-mode (Along-Track Interferometer). These experiments took place in the test area of the Sea Bottom Topography Group, 30 km off the Dutch coast, where the bottom topography is dominated by sand waves. In-situ data were gathered by a ship in the test area and on 'Measuring Platform Noordwijk', 20 km from the center of the test area. The radar images made during the experiment were compared with digitized maps of the bottom. Furthermore, the profiles of radar backscatter modulation were compared with the results of the model. During the workshop some preliminary results of the ATI measurements will be shown.

Vanderkooij, M. W. A.↗

Atmospheric Instrument Systems and Technology in the Goddard Earth Sciences Division

Studies of the Earth’s atmosphere require a comprehensive set of observations that rely on instruments flown on spacecraft, aircraft, and balloons as well as those deployed on the surface. Within NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) Earth Sciences Division-Atmospheres, laboratories and offices maintain an active program of instrument system development and observational studies that provide: 1) information leading to a basic understanding of atmospheric processes and their relationships with the Earth’s climate system, 2) prototypes for future flight instruments, 3) instruments to serve as calibration references for satellite missions, and 4) instruments for future field validation campaigns that support ongoing space missions. Our scientists participate in all aspects of instrument activity, including component and system design, calibration techniques, retrieval algorithm development, and data processing systems. The Atmospheres Program has well-equipped labs and test equipment to support the development and testing of instrument systems, such as a radiometric calibration and development facility to support the calibration of ultraviolet and visible (UV/VIS), space-borne solar backscatter instruments. This document summarizes the features and characteristics of 46 instrument systems that currently exist or are under development. The report is organized according to active, passive, or in situ remote sensing across the electromagnetic spectrum. Most of the systems are considered operational in that they have demonstrated performance in the field and are capable of being deployed on relatively short notice. Other systems are under study or of low technical readiness level (TRL). The systems described herein are designed mainly for surface or airborne platforms. However, two Cubesat systems also have been developed through collaborative efforts. The Solar Disk Sextant (SDS) is the single balloon-borne instrument. The lidar systems described herein are designed to retrieve clouds, aerosols, methane, water vapor pressure, temperature, and winds. Most of the lasers operate at some wavelength combination of 355, 532, and 1064 nm. The various systems provide high sensitivity measurements based on returns from backscatter or Raman scattering including intensity and polarization. Measurements of the frequency (Doppler) shift of light scattered from various atmospheric constitutes can also be made. Microwave sensors consist of both active (radar) and passive (radiometer) systems. These systems are important for studying processes involving water in various forms. The dielectric properties of water affect microwave brightness temperatures, which are used to retrieve atmospheric parameters such as rainfall rate and other key elements of the hydrological cycle. Atmosphere radar systems operate in the range from 9.6 GHz to 94 GHz and have measurement accuracies from -5 to 1 dBZ; radiometers operate in the 50 GHz to 874 GHz range with accuracies from 0.5 to 1 degree K; conical and cross-track scan modes are used. Our passive optical sensors, consisting of radiometers and spectrometers, collectively operate from the UV into the infrared. These systems measure energy fluxes and atmospheric parameters such as trace gases, aerosols, cloud properties, or altitude profiles of various species. Imager spatial resolution varies from 37 m to 400 m depending on altitude; spectral resolution is as small as 0.5 nm. Many of the airborne systems have been developed to fly on multiple aircraft.

Platnick, Steven E.↗

Atmospheric Form Drag Coefficients Over Arctic Sea Ice Using Remotely Sensed Ice Topography Data, Spring 2009-2015

Sea ice topography significantly impacts turbulent energy/momentum exchange, e.g., atmospheric (wind) drag, over Arctic sea ice. Unfortunately, observational estimates of this contribution to atmospheric drag variability are spatially and temporally limited. Here we present new estimates of the neutral atmospheric form drag coefficient over Arctic sea ice in early spring, using high-resolution Airborne Topographic Mapper elevation data from NASA's Operation IceBridge mission. We utilize a new three-dimensional ice topography data set and combine this with an existing parameterization scheme linking surface feature height and spacing to form drag. To be consistent with previous studies investigating form drag, we compare these results with those produced using a new linear profiling topography data set. The form drag coefficient from surface feature variability shows lower values [less than 0.5-1 × 10(exp. −3)] in the Beaufort/Chukchi Seas, compared with higher values [greater than 0.5-1 ×10(exp. −3)] in the more deformed ice regimes of the Central Arctic (north of Greenland and the Canadian Archipelago), which increase with coastline proximity. The results show moderate interannual variability, including a strong increase in the form drag coefficient from 2013 to 2014/2015 north of the Canadian Archipelago. The form drag coefficient estimates are extrapolated across the Arctic with Advanced Scatterometer satellite radar backscatter data, further highlighting the regional/interannual drag coefficient variability. Finally, we combine the results with existing parameterizations of form drag from floe edges (a function of ice concentration) and skin drag to produce, to our knowledge, the first pan-Arctic estimates of the total neutral atmospheric drag coefficient (in early spring) from 2009 to 2015.

sea ice↗

A Neural Network Parametrization of Volumetric Cloud Fraction Profiles Using Satellite Observations and MERRA-2 Reanalysis Meteorological Data

Clouds play a crucial role in regulating the hydrologic cycle and Earth's radiative energy budget, yet they are often poorly represented in global climate models (GCMs). This study applies deep machine learning techniques to develop a physical parameterization of volumetric cloud fraction (VCF), the fraction of a 3-D grid volume occupied by clouds using satellite lidar-radar measurements. The neural network (NN) captures the complicated relationships between observed VCF profiles and collocated meteorological variables from MERRA-2 reanalysis data. Our results show that the NN model, particularly a sequence-to-sequence long short-term memory (LSTM) network with a sixfactor loss function, effectively learns the underlying cloud physical processes. The NN model outperforms MERRA-2 reanalysis in representing low-level clouds in tropical and subtropical regions and low- and middle-level clouds over midlatitude storm-track regions, and also improves VCF histograms. These improvements are reflected in the vertical distributions of zonally, meridionally, and globally averaged VCFs, geographic distributions of low-, middle-, and high-level clouds, and seasonal variations in monthly-mean VCF. Furthermore, the NN predictions effectively capture the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) effects and other interannual variations. The NN parameterization is further evaluated through a sensitivity analysis, in which a single predictor is perturbed at a time. This reveals that relative humidity (RH) is the dominant factor influencing variations in globally averaged VCF at low and middle altitudes, followed by temperature. At higher altitudes, temperature becomes the primary driver of VCF through its effect on RH. Changes in wind components had minimal impact on globally averaged VCF.

Shan Zeng↗

Future Plans in US Flight Missions: Using Laser Remote Sensing for Climate Science Observations

Laser Remote Sensing provides critical climate science observations necessary to better measure, understand, model and predict the Earth's water, carbon and energy cycles. Laser Remote Sensing applications for studying the Earth and other planets include three dimensional mapping of surface topography, canopy height and density, atmospheric measurement of aerosols and trace gases, plume and cloud profiles, and winds measurements. Beyond the science, data from these missions will produce new data products and applications for a multitude of end users including policy makers and urban planners on local, national and global levels. NASA Missions in formulation including Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat 2) and the Deformation, Ecosystem Structure, and Dynamics of Ice (DESDynI), and future missions such as the Active Sensing of CO2 Emissions over Nights, Days and Seasons (ASCENDS), will incorporate the next generation of LIght Detection And Ranging (lidar) instruments to measure changes in the surface elevation of the ice, quantify ecosystem carbon storage due to biomass and its change, and provide critical data on CO 2 in the atmosphere. Goddard's plans for these instruments and potential uses for the resulting data are described below. For the ICESat 2 mission, GSFC is developing a micro-pulse multi-beam lidar. This instrument will provide improved ice elevation estimates over high slope and very rough areas and result in improved lead detection for sea ice estimates. Data about the sea ice and predictions related to sea levels will continue to help inform urban planners as the changes in the polar ice accelerate. DESDynI is planned to be launched in 2017 and includes both lidar and radar instruments. GSFC is responsible for the lidar portion of the DESDynI mission and is developing a scanning laser altimeter that will measure the Earth's topography, the structure of tree canopies, biomass, and surface roughness. The DESDynI lidar will also measure and predict the response of ice masses to climate change and impact on sea level. Data from the lidar will ultimately be fused with radar data products with heretofore unseen results and applications. The 3-D structure of forests is critical to understanding the impact of land use and associated landscape changes on the habitat of life forms and consequently on their biodiversity. Lidar instruments are also under development to measure trace gases in the atmospheric such as CO2 and methane. GSFC is developing an active measurement approach to determine the CO2 column density and surface pressure for the proposed ASCENDS mission. The objective of this approach is to produce data on the amounts of anthropogenic and organic CO2 in the atmosphere with sufficient accuracy to meet the needs of target users including state, federal and international users as well as policy-related legislative, regulatory, and voluntary carbon-related management groups local to international interests. In summary, NASA will continue to rely on laser remote sensing for critical climate science observations and is committed to the development of the next generation of lidar instruments for a range of applications.

Callahan, Lisa W.↗

Rayleigh lidar observations of gravity wave activity in the stratosphere and lower mesosphere

Forty-two monochromatic gravity wave events were observed in the 25 to 55 km altitude region during 16 nights of Rayleigh lidar measurements at Poker Flat, Alaska and Urbana, Illinois. The measured wave parameters were compared to previous radar and lidar measurements of gravity wave activity. Vertical wavelengths, lambda(z), between 2 and 11.5 km with vertical phase velocities, c(z), between 0.1 and 1 m/s were observed. Measured values of lambda(z) and c(z) were used to infer observed wave periods, T(ob), between 50 and 1000 minutes and horizontal wavelengths, lambda(x), from 25 to 2000 km. Dominant wave activity was found at vertical wavelengths between 2 to 4 km and 7 to 10 km. No seasonal variations were evident in the observed wave parameters. Vertical and horizontal wavelengths showed a clear tendency to increase with T(ob), which is consistent with recent sodium lidar studies of monochromatic wave events near the mesopause. Measured power law relationships between the wave parameters were lambda(z) varies as T(ob) sup 0.96, lambda(x) varies as T(ob) sup 1.8, and c(z) varies as T(ob) sup -0.85. The kinetic energy calculated for the monochromatic wave events varied as k(z) sup -2, k(x) sup -1, and f(ob) sup -1.7. The atmospheric scale heights calculated for each observation date range from 6.5 to 7.6 km with a mean value of 7 km. The increase of rms wind perturbations with altitude indicated an amplitude growth length of 20.9 km. The altitude profile of kinetic energy density decreased with height, suggesting that waves in this altitude region were subject to dissipation or saturation effects.

Miller, M. S.↗